A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

The Tale of Two Alous

Why is Omar interested in Moises Alou? Yes he had a gaudy 39 home runs in 2004, but a whopping 29 came at home while only 10 came on the road. Would he even crack 20 at Shea? I think that is a fair question. Moises is a career .300 hitter who owns a career .361 on base %.

To be fair to Moises, he's been impressive since he's turned 33. Since 2000 he's averaged 138 games, 523 at bats, 80 runs, 31 doubles, 27 homers, 96 RBIs, 57 BBs, 62 K's, a .307 AVG, .372 OBP, and a .522 SLG. Basically, if he had those numbers as Met for that long, he'd have been the most consistantly producing outfielder in 20 years. However, it has to be taken into account where he has been playing. Over the past three years, he has doubled his homerun output at home as opposed to the road with a 50 to 26 split. He has batted .040 points higher at home over the past three years than on the road. Not to mention, anyone that has watched him in the field will tell you he is an adventure. He never quite looks like he'll get to the ball and actually get under it. He'll turn 39 next season and even if he's a one year solution, I'd rather let Victor Diaz develop. Alou is not going to carry the team to the playoffs and those ABs are more valuable for Diaz to work out his kinks. Call me crazy, but I think Diaz could put up similar numbers to Alou if he was in Shea. In three years, Alou has average less than 9 homers per year on the road. That is one scary number for a guy who put up forty last year.

Omar, please pass on this one.

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  • What's this? The Yankees making some noise in Bronx and I actually like their moves. I thought Cairo was a decent player for them exceeding peoples expectations, but they apparently like Tony Womack better. Their numbers were quite similar but Womack is a role player for them and it is shocking the Yankees did not try and make a big splash here like they do at every position.

    They also signed Jaret Wright (according to ESPN radio) to a three year $21 million dollar contract. Did they overpay? I think so, but he's under 30 and had a good arm. The Yankees have reportedly offered Carl Pavano a contract that could be worth $40 million over 4 years and reportedly have a contract offer out to Eric Milton as well. If they dump Brown and ink the rest, that leaves them with four starters under 30 when you add in Javy. I'm not the biggest Milton fan and I think Wright and Pavano had career years, but who can argue with getting young in the rotation with some of the more sought after arms on the market. I think Pavano will end up with Boston, but if they can ink Carl, the Yankees would have pulled off a major overhaul in their starting five and really managed to get younger.

  • Bringing DeJean back for a reasonable price of $1.15 million is just fine by me. It's also fine by me that Hidalgo took a walk.

  • Leiter gives the Mets the finger on the way out the door as he waited until the Mets could receive no compensation when he signed with the Marlins. Will this come back to haunt the Mets? Yes, but only for five innings every game he starts against the Mets and then the bad Marlin bullpen will take over and he won't get the win.

  • Mistake #2 after placing Alou on your wish list is giving Martinez a guaranteed fourth year which Omar is poised to do. I'm not against bringing in Pedro, but giving him a deal that no one else would dare to give is scary. My dream of Clement to the Mets is fading fast (actually it never got off the ground since they never really had that much interest in the first place)

  • According to the most honorable man in baseball who's word is worth it's weight in gold, Magglio is ready to go. Sign him up if he's good to go Omar. A legitimate #3 hitter is what this team needs and that’s what he is. Especially if the Mets are going after Pedro so hard, I don't see how Beltran can fit into the budget while finding a replacement at first base too.