A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

A Hot Streak Away

Check out my piece on Carlos Beltran on Metsgeek.com as a compliment to today's post. People smarter than me did their projections for Carlos Beltran before the season started. With Carlos' current projected numbers this year, who was furthest off?
                  AVG  OBP   SLG   HR   SB   Total % Off
Actual Projected .269 .325 .436 19 13
Mr. Met .290 .390 .560 32 40
-7% -17% -22% -41% -68% -154%
                  AVG  OBP   SLG   HR   SB   Total % Off
Actual Projected .269 .325 .436 19 13
PECOTA .280 .377 .508 26 30
-4% -14% -14% -27% -57% -115%
                  AVG  OBP   SLG   HR   SB   Total % Off
Actual Projected .269 .325 .436 19 13
ZiPS .278 .373 .504 29 38
-3% -13% -13% -34% -66% -130%
                  AVG  OBP   SLG   HR   SB   Total % Off
Actual Projected .269 .325 .436 19 13
Marcels .282 .363 .520 28 32
-5% -10% -16% -32% -59% -123%
                  AVG  OBP   SLG   HR   SB   Total % Off
Actual Projected .269 .325 .436 19 13
James .285 .368 .524 31 38
-6% -12% -17% -39% -66% -139%
Since I did not use anything but wishful thinking and had no mathematical equations whatsoever simple or complicated, I was the furthest away from his actual projected numbers this year bases on his current performance. PECOTA had the least total percentage points, but was still far away. There is not one category for any of the projections that Carlos is on pace to exceed. However, prior to the season it was said that what Carlos does will not show up in the box scores all the time. He basically does everything and does it with such ease that he almost looks like he is not trying. He was also said to be streaky. He is not a type of hitter like Vlad Guerrero that is the go to guy for the entire year, but he has the ability to carry a team for a while on a Carlos Beltran hot streak.

I understood all that and largely agree with that. I have been waiting for a ten or twenty game stretch that he plays like the best player in the universe, but it has not come yet and that got me to thinking. If Carlos ripped off a thirteen game streak like he did in the 2004 playoffs, how would his numbers look? Of course this means nothing, but for shits and giggles I wanted to look at it. In thirteen playoff games for the Astros, he put up a .390/.471/.864 line with four doubles, eight homers, fourteen RBIs, nine walks, and six stolen bases. If you add that to his current numbers of today, that would leave him with a .284/.345/.489 line with thirty doubles, twenty-one homers, seventy-three RBIs, and forty-four walks. Would those numbers look more in line with what was expected? Yup. It is not inconceivable Beltran can go on a trademark tear and seems to be hitting the ball hard and to the opposite field a lot recently, so he could be primed to take off and it would certainly be the right time for the Mets who are on the cusp of the Wild Card.

* * *

  • Minor update:
    • Norfolk beat Charlotte 5-1. The senior citizens were responsible for all the runs and Brian Daubach and Mike DiFelice knocked in five. Anderson Hernandez went 1 for 3 and got caught stealing for the fourth time in twenty-two attempts. Victor Diaz went 1 for 3 with a run scored, a double, and a walk. Heath Bell went three innings and gave up two hits, no runs, no walks, and struck out five. The dude does not belong in the Minor Leagues working on a change up or not.
    • Binghamton beat Norwich 9-6. Mike Jacobs had his homerun stroke and knocked two homers out and went 2 for 3 with four RBIs. He now has twenty-five on the year. Aarom Baldiris went 2 for 3 with two runs scored, a walk, his sixth homer, and two RBIs.
    • St. Lucie beat Palm beach 9-7 by scoring two runs in the top of the ninth. Jamar Hill went 2 for 4 with two runs scored and Grant Psomas went 2 for 4 with a run scored, a double, and two RBIs. Aaron Hathaway was moved up in the order and continues to hit the ball well and went 3 for 5 with two runs scored and two RBIs.
    • Hagerstown lost to Greensboro 4-3. Ambiroix Concepcion's average keeps creeping up and he went 2 for 4 with two doubles and accounted for half of the Suns hits. Concepcion also picked up his twenty-eighth stolen base and got caught for the twelfth time on the season.
    • Tri-City beat Brooklyn 7-6. Joseph Holden went 3 for 4 with a triple, an RBI, a walk, his thirteenth stolen base on the year, and got caught stealing for the third time. Drew Butera went 2 for 4 with a double, an RBI, and a run scored. Bobby Parnell only went 4.1 innings, but was victimized by three unearned runs and gave up only one earned run, eight hits, no walks, one homer, and struck out four. He took the loss to drop his record to 2-1 with a 1.79 ERA.
    • Kingsport beat Pulaski 6-4. Matthew Anderson went 3 for 4 with two runs scored, a double, his fifth homer, and three RBIs.
    • The GCL Mets beat the GCL Nationals 6-5. Jonathan Schemmel went 2 for 5 with a run scored, a walk, and three RBIs and Leivi Ventura went 2 for 4 with a run scored, a double, his fifth homer, a walk, and two RBIs.
  • Baseball Prospectus has a great rundown of Felix Hernandez's second start. It is only two starts, but if you read this you really get a sense of how tremendously talented this kid has and makes you pissed off you were not born with an arm that could throw a baseball 100 mph. As much as I like this kid already, I had forgotten why he should one of my most favorite players.

    "I don't like the Yankees. I never did. I don't know why. The Yankees are too big. I could have gone with the Yankees but I really didn't like them. It's not the people. It's the team."

  • In case you missed it, Baseball Prospecuts had a chat with Scott Boras and he answered some of us normal folk's questions.

    Max (Montreal): What do you think of what Drew Rosenhaus is doing with Terrell Owens in the owner friendly NFL?

    Scott Boras: A few Owens questions... "Renegotiate" is not in my vocabulary. I advise players to consider all the variables, such as injury vs improvement, before they sign a contract.

    I have had players call me about bad contracts they had signed and I always advise that the sanctity of the contract is important for the survival of any system based on performance. To change it when there is improvement is a double-edged sword that will inevitably lead to degrading the contract when the player malperforms.

    Unless there is a provision allowing for changes based on performance, anyone who advocates change puts all his clients in jeopardy. It becomes subjective, degrading contracts just as often as improving them, and anarchy results.

    Terrell Owens argues that the owners have the ability to void his contract at any time. While this seems unjust, this is in the NFL CBA. This is a huge issue that should be raised at the next collective bargaining session, but not in the context of an individual player. Owens knew this provision existed when he signed his contract.

    It was a really interesting read.

    While I am on the topic of Scott Boras, he weighs in on Carlos Beltran's 2005 season.

    "I think his thigh was bothering him a great deal more than he let on," his agent, Scott Boras explained. "Now he's healthy again and I think you are starting to see his numbers rise."

    Boras admits there has been a transition period for Beltran.

    "There's no question that a player who signs a big contract has to go through that," he said. "He has got to learn that he has to return to what made him successful, that is taking a lot of pitches and getting deep in the count, and he's been doing that lately and we're starting to see the Carlos of old.

    "This guy is a great talent, and I'm sure Mets fans will have a lot to cheer about."

  • Doug Mientkiewicz is at it again.

    - David Wright was so self-conscious about his defense earlier this season that he admitted to lacking faith in his own ability, a rare confession for a professional athlete.

    Now, after Tuesday's amazing bare-handed catch, Doug Mientkiewicz, a Gold Glover himself, wants to be his date to next year's ESPYs award show.

    "He totally better take me," Mientkiewicz said. "Because if that's not the play of the year, I'll protest. He better not have a girlfriend by then."

  • "It's definitely odd to try to get used to this," Graves said. "But at the same time, I've never been on a team that had every starter go six, seven innings every time out. In that aspect, that's odd, too. But I'm learning to deal with it.

    Reds staff? Under the bus.

  • From NorthJersey.com:

    Randolph said that he would not insert Miguel Cairo there to fit Kaz Matsui into the lineup and that he would not use Woodward full time, preferring to keep him for a utility role. One thing the Mets haven't done is reach down to the minors, where Eric Valent and Victor Diaz have played the position and are hitting well again.

    Stubborn ass. Why would you not try that for a game or two. Willie in all of his infinite wisdom will probably give Kaz a start when they return home so he can get booed in his first start.

  • Carlos is smart, heads up player.

    It's rare that a catcher will be lured into such a situation, but Beltran, who knew Olivo from his days with the AL Central rival White Sox, had inside information.

    "Olivo was going to throw to second," Beltran said. "He's got a strong arm, he loves to throw people out."

    Beltran became the first Mets player to steal home since Roger Cedeno did it in 2002 against the Yankees, and it was also the first time for him personally.

  • "It's pretty obvious he was not on top of his game," manager Bruce Bochy said. You can say that Brian Lawrence was not on top of his game, but David Wright is showing San Diego fans first hand just how good he is. After a stellar play in the field on Tuesday, he goes 4 for 5 with a double, a homer, and six RBIs to drive his average over .300. Of course, he did not need to do all that since Kris Benson took a one hitter into the ninth inning and had a great slider going all game only to be pulled in the ninth to let Danny Graves finish the game off. Benson had this crazy stoic and blank stare the entire game in the dugout. I have no idea if he was focused or on xanax. Whatever it was, he needs to do it again.