A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Tom Terrific?

From DG on Friday:
So, just an observation in regards to Glavine. Three innings so far - and the Detroit loss as well - and I kind of find myself wishing that he'd get his 300th then fade away next season. He cannot beat a patient team. You just really get the impression that he's scuffling toward his career mark and that there's not really that much left in the tank. Take off twenty years and put him in the Questec era, and you really have to wonder how long of a career he would have.

This is one topic that I've been thinking about a lot recently. I actually sent this question into Jerry Crasnick's last chat, but it didn't make it on. Basically I asked this:

    Glavine is getting killed lately when he gets squeezed or even gets a true strikezone. If he doesn't get an inch or two off the plate, he simply does not have the stuff to get people out in the zone. You have to wonder if he would have a Hall of Fame career if he didn't have a generous strikezone early in his career. Of course he would have been good, but perhaps not a soon to be immortal.
Back in the 90's, Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux were the beneficiaries of a very generous strike zone and the fabled one foot extension of the plate on the outside corner.

These days, umps are pressured into calling a more true strike zone and the invention of Questec had helped start that. In Glavine's first year here, there was a big to do about the Questec and how it affected Tom Glavine's starts at Shea. The end result was a sub-par year for Glavine. An adjustment was made by Tom and he started using a change-up inside and he looked as good as ever again. I'm not sure if it was a mechanical tweak, his inside change-up, or him getting a bit wider strikezone again, but he looked like he was back on track. Now the league has caught back up with him, he's doing something wrong mechanically, or the zone is tighter.

These days, I have zero confidence in him putting up a sparkling start. Like DG said, a patient team is not going to chase that fading change-up off the the plate. A younger team might, but he doesn't seem to be fooling anyone these days and laboring through his starts piling up 40+ pitches in two innings in to many starts lately. He still has ten quality starts out of fifteen starts, but he's gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. He has five wins and is on pace for twelve which would leave him at 302. However, I'm not even sure he is a sure bet to break 300 with the way he is pitching and the Mets are playing. Scary to think about it, but if he doesn't reach 300, we might see him again in 2008 and that would seemingly be a very bad thing.

* * *

  • Carlos Beltran....he's hurt.

    Beltran, who went 0-for-6 Saturday, admits that he has been bothered by a nagging left quad injury, the Daily News reports.
    Spin: Beltran plans to play through the discomfort, acknowledging that he can ill-afford to go on the DL, given the state of the Mets' banged-up outfield. Beltran, who added that rest would "probably" fix the injury, said he feels more discomfort when he bats lefty, since it requires him to put added weight on his left leg when he swings.

    The Mets have now dropped 11 of 14. If he sat or even went on the DL, how much worse could it be? The fact is, an unhealthy Beltran is not helping this team one iota. At least a healthy Beltran might help this team string a run together. With Gomez heating up a bit and bringing his average up to respectable levels and Milledge around the corner, Beltran can and should take the time he needs and at some point. Met management needs to make that decision because Beltran is not going to make it and a week might do him wonders.

    Randolph is not concerned about Beltran's leg and Beltran did look much better on Monday.

  • Yankee fans now know the name Oliver Perez pretty well. He is 2-0 against them with a 1.20 ERA and a .192 BAA in two games this season. Watching him deal on Friday was a delight. Unfortunately, that was the only nice thing about this weekend. Watching the aforementioned Glavine continually give it back to the Yankees was exasperating beyond belief and I had no confidence in the Mets getting to Wang. It seems the Mets always have trouble with guys that have heavy sink.

    What to do now? Not much. Still, the starting pitching is not of paramount concern to me and the offense is not going to get upgrade. What we see is what we are going to get with the exception of Lastings Milledge getting added to the roster when he returns and has a short rehab stint. The bullpen? Not many people are available outside of some guys from Texas and probably some guys that do not appreciably upgrade the team. Basically the Mets have to fix this team and straighten it out with what the currently have.

    Depending upon how you feel about the team right now, that could either be encouraging or very, very discouraging. I don't have any doubts they will straighten out, but I do think they look a bit weaker overall than I thought.

  • Wright, Beltran, and Reyes are still leading the charge in their respective positions. While Miguel Cabrera is getting shut-out here, it certainly is not a stretch for Wright to be in the All-Star game after picking it up. Beltran on the other hand is simply not playing well enough to earn a spot, but hopefully he turns it around like Wright did to make it a moot point.

    Marc Raimondi says that John Maine should be included as well.

    In 14 starts, he has given up more than three runs only twice and has made it out of the fifth inning all but once. The Mets are 9-5 when he starts and they won his first seven outings of the season before tapering off lately.

    Though Maine hit a lull, him and Perez have certainly pitched well enough this season to get some strong consideration. Both are in the top six of ERA and are up there in wins. Also helping out Perez's case is the fact that LaRussa is going to be picking and one has to think Ollie's game seven performance has not been lost on Tony.

  • Does T.R. Sullivan really get paid for this?

    Will the Rangers trade Sammy Sosa once he gets his 600th home run? I would think you can get something good for him.
    -- Ralph T., Fort Worth

    I don't see trading Sosa, unless it would be to the New York Mets. That's something to watch. Otherwise, it's hard to envision.

    First of all you have to assume that it would be an American League team so he could be a DH. But who? The Red Sox have David Ortiz, the Indians have Travis Hafner, the Tigers have Gary Sheffield, the White Sox have Jim Thome and the Athletics are getting Mike Piazza back. The Angels use Vladimir Guerrero too much at DH.

    I definitely could see Mets general manager Omar Minaya being interested in Sosa if his outfield problems continue, but it's doubtful that another NL team would be interested unless it's as a platoon player or pinch-hitter. Then the Rangers wouldn't get much in return.

    But watch out for the Mets.

    The Mets ain't trading for no Sammy Sosa.

  • Did he ever have a chance?

  • Lonnie Wheeler thinks the time is right to deal Adam Dunn. Ummm....the time was right two years ago to trade him. Now it's pointless. The Reds have no one to blame but themselves and it's not really a wonder why they are in the place they are in.

  • A-Rod is hot again....

    In his last 28 games, Rodriguez has 12 homers and 34 RBIs. That is more homers than any Yankee has all season and as many RBIs as Bobby Abreu. Yet it is the 22 games that came before this stretch that accentuates his season.

    In 28 games, his production numbers look exactly like David Wright's overall numbers. Nuts. Sherman thinks that he could be the first player with an annual contract of $30 million. I don't see that happening just yet, but he's going to get something really, really, really big.

  • The Mets FINALLY played an all around dominating game. The starting pitching was as tight as a camel's ass in a sandstorm, the bullpen put up goose eggs (Pedro #2 allowed an inherited run to score on a bloop), and the offense was relentless. FINALLY a game I could watch without slightly regurgitating in my mouth...well Friday's game was pretty good as well, but this was more well rounded.
  • Labels:


    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Thanks for some props there Mr Oliver. I actually wrote something similar into Buster's chat yesterday:

    DG, A..., VT: Hey Buster, please take a question from a fellow Vermonter! Two games now against AL teams and Tom Glavine looks (I'm afraid to say it...) washed up - like there's nothing left in the tank and he's just scuffling for 300 before he hangs it all up. I've seen him swoon before, but the body language is just terrible. Will TG ever beat a patient team again?

    SportsNation Buster Olney: DG: I'm a sucker for Vermont questions... I think Glavine will bounce back. He kind of went through this last year, too; I wish I had the month-by-month stuff at hand. Look, he's not an elite pitcher any more, but he can still be a decent pitcher; during his little run of no-decisions and losses, he's had some games in which he's thrown pretty well. Agree with you about the point about patience, but fortunately, there are many weak offensive teams in the NL.

    (VT aka Dial Up Hell & U.S. Nest)

    Anyway, I was wondering Saturday as I winced through TG at The House That Shmucko Built why he didn't once exhume that little shitty curve ball he had in one of those two strike situations, three ball situations, any situation frankly. It was clear that the Yanks were going to wait for Glavine to have to come to the plate, and obviously we're talking about a guy who doesn't really have a fastball per se. If you're struggling you've got to change it up (without relying on your change up apparently) but nothing in sights except hard contact off Evil Empire bats! Didn't the guy work on a cutter when Al "The Yankee" Leiter was around?

    Which leads me to the point that ultimately at this stage of his career Glavine has been slow to adjust - first to the change in umpiring, next to his need to change location and now to use anything beyond his two out pitches. Every time it has been Zen Master Rick who has finally gotten through.

    I hate to say it but TG really needs his 300th and a quick exit. Your nightmare scenario of him needing some victories NEXT YEAR could keep one up at night. Rather let him go back to the Braves.

    That said, a lot of stupid talk that the Mets might trade Gomez in the press these days, which is frankly moronic. It's pretty clear that Lasto goes if anyone goes, but I see a middle reliever being the biggest priority longterm. The Mets will right themselves, and Milledge will be in left field before Alou is.

    Elsewhere: John Niese is starting to put it back together (two very good starts in a row); Brandon Efferson could be the difference between a decent if unexciting draft and a very good one (based on the principal that two to three MLB contributors constitutes a very good draft); Mike Carp is back on rehab.

    And lastly, Willie sticking so long with Lo Duca in the fifth spot seemed like usual Willie stubbornness. Although he knocked in two last night after being put back in the two hole, he's not an RBI man (though generally proficient in moving people over), which is why he's not an All-Star in my book. McCann in Atlanta is an All-Star or Martin in LA. Sorry.

    5:45 AM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    fyi, si omar article is good.

    8:37 AM

    Blogger michael o. said...

    DG….way to get on his good side. He has looked bad before where he cannot get anyone out. That is true, but I just don’t know. He’s too dependent on the umpires strike zone. If the ump is generous, he’ll do good. If the is not, then he’s done. I think it boils down to that.

    That was the other think I was wondering. Before I wrote the article I wanted to check out what Jamie Moyer throws. Obviously they have similar velocity and are both lefties (though Glavine throws a little harder). He is 49% fastballs…8% curveball, 14% slider, and 29% change-up his year. Not that he is doing all that much better or has done that much better over the last four years, but you have to wonder if Glavine would be better with a curve (measly one or not) added in. He adjusted to come inside with the change, but that doesn’t seem to be working much these days.

    I do NOT want to trade Milledge for a reliever unless it’s the best one in the game. Sorry. Even closers don’t pull a huge bounty. Danys Baez was solid and brought back nothing. You don’t see B+ prospects being trade for bullpen arms all that much.

    based on the principal that two to three MLB contributors constitutes a very good draft

    And if you can turn three guys either by trade or bringing them up through your system and get big league help, you’ll have a very self sufficient team. It seems like that should be easy, but it’s not. If you somehow can come close to that and then add in free agents and int’l signings, you have yourself a brilliant run. Smith looks good…Mulvey looks good. Let’s see if Mulvey and someone else can turn last year’s draft into a good one.

    RE: LoDuca…Martin should start. McCann should back up. LoDuca is a great guy and I have grown to love him, but no All-Star.

    Willie is stubborn. And he has ‘his’ guys. Always has. I don’t think you are optimally running your team (and this goes for Omar to and his allergic reaction to Heath Bell) if you have favorites or won’t give certain people a fair shot.

    9:30 AM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Omar on the cover of SI is the reason for the June swoon, don't you think?

    Red Sox just released JC Romero. He could be a help, and he wouldn't cost anything except money. Problem is, Mets need a righty reliever more.

    12:27 PM

    Blogger michael o. said...

    I'll take a shot on Romero. Peterson has a knack rehabbing relievers for half a season. I'd bet against him in '08, but for the rest of '07? All in baby.

    12:42 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    "RE: LoDuca…Martin should start. McCann should back up. LoDuca is a great guy and I have grown to love him, but no All-Star." Ditto!

    I am in no way shape form entity endorsing Milledge for middle relief. Never. Not that stupid. Just said he's going IF a big trade is made. My acquisition of middle relief does not include LMillz.

    Unless Shoenough has options, we have no need for Romero.

    1:28 PM

    Blogger michael o. said...

    Unless Shoenough has options, we have no need for Romero.

    There is always room. Can't we send Sele through waivers? Who is picking him up? Let Shoenough take the long man role...though I'm not sure he can do anything. Or DL him...wasn't he intimating that he was injured?

    1:51 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    On Saturday Tom Glavine's stuff looked VERY hittable. After some foul balls I called many things like:
    "A-Rod's gonna hit a homerun here"
    "Posada is gonna a hit a double now".
    It was obvious he was goign to get rocked that day, just by looking at the swings the Yankers were making.
    He looked straight up WASHED UP, I hope that was just on SAturday though...

    Beltran looked very good last night. He was smooth in the outfield and hit with authority. I havn't seen him hit with such authority in a while... I think the kid is back.

    Omar is smarter than trading anythign that resembles talent for Sosa. He'd be a good backup bench player though, but Sammy's ego won't allow that...

    As far as the Texas bullpen goes, there's Otsuka and Gagné but there is also Frank Francisco who was nasty back in the day but he's still making his comeback from Tommy John and he also hits people with chairs like Stone Cold Steve Austin.

    Sidd, JC Romero has a WHIP close to 2. He has a nice ERA but his WHIP shows he's been living dangerously. He's been pretty hittable.

    2:31 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    DG: agree on everything said.

    2. I'd have to let lastings go for Buerle..according to MLBrumors it sounds like an even swap. Lastings is a CF, he did not adjust well to RF or LF tho I am sure he would in time. The advance of CG and then F-Mart drive that deal.

    3. Zambrano has talked about the Cards.

    4. Sele: can be sent down. I think the middle reliver is already at AAA, be it humber, Lawrence, Vargas, or Collazzo.

    2:33 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    benny, I was surprised to see that the league is hitting .308 against Romero, however, with runners in scoring position, he held batters to a .143 average (4 for 28). Unfortunately, he also walked seven in those situations.

    I wouldn't try to get him until he clears waivers, but thought he might be as good as Schoenweis, maybe disable him so he can get healthy. He's not doing the Mets any good pitching hurt, that's for sure.

    Bob Knight also throws a mean chair. I don't think that Francisco will ever live that down.

    2:49 PM

    Blogger michael o. said...

    I’ve thought Glavine was washed up before. I tend to get negative with him rather than guys like Carlos Zambrano because they simply cannot get the ball by anyone and fastball/change-up looks incredibly pedestrian and you wonder how he ever got anyone out. In reality, he probably is a 4.50 ERA at this time with the strike zones that have been getting called. His days in the 3.50 or lower arena are over. He’ll scrounge at some wins and have a good day when his change-up is exceptional, but I am not expecting much from him despite the fact he had a great first month.

    Beltran did look good. He ran good…it makes you wonder why he even brought up his quad? It didn’t appear to be bothering him last night unless he just got healthy that second.

    Sammy would be marginal off the bench due to his outfield un-prowess. I’d rather keep Milledge on the bench at this point to provide pop, speed, and mitt. Gomez should be getting consistent at-bats at AAA still, but is playing past Milledge day by day.

    he also hits people with chairs like Stone Cold Steve Austin.

    What team doesn’t need a little edge? Besides, that pregnant woman had that coming.

    Romero is hittable…but he was good in the past. Like DeJean back a few years, ½ year rental relievers turn out well for the Mets. Low cost move here for a scuffling bullpen.

    Millo for Buehrle? In a second. IN A SECOND.

    I certainly wouldn’t mind trying Vargas, Collazo, or Lawrence in the big league bullpen. Every game that Humber gets shelled, I shy away from any assertion that he to should be in the mix. His starts have been ugly.

    3:56 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Sele could and would opt to become a free agent if the Mets attempted to send him down. He'd find a job somewhere and get two salaries instead of one.

    I liked Lawrence's workmanlike efficiency pre-injury but I'm not quite sure he's a incremental - never mind significant - improvement over Sele.

    As for Collazo, Humber & Vargas: I'd lean Vargas as he can provide innings and doesn't pose the same sort of developmental risk as moving Humber to the pen engenders. Humber is a more than realistic option for the rotation next year and needs to pitch himself back into the sensations of pitching well. Collazo could supply innings but is untested; doesn't that generally equal the far end of Willie's bench?

    Lasto for Buerle... Is it a lot? A little? I'm not sure what Beurle brings to the rotation except perhaps freeing Sosa to relieve. Plus I think Mr. Millz is very likely the next man in left field given Alou's injury and Gomez's need for more consistent playing time. Then again, I could see the Mets dumping Ledee and keeping both up. But what's the feeling on one year rentals that cost a top prospect? I'm hesitant. Maybe we could acquire Buerle and ship him immediately to the Cubs for Zambrano. Then, I'd give the White Sox Lasto no problem!

    3:57 PM

    Blogger michael o. said...

    I'm not sure what Beurle brings to the rotation except perhaps freeing Sosa to relieve.

    Buehrle would be in lieu of Big Z. next season. He will be cheaper as well. You trade Lastings with the hope of signing Mark and not just letting him getaway. You save a draft pick, add a lefty who has been extremely comparable to Barry Zito from '04 to '06. If he can get signed to a reasonable contract, he could be a much better option than Big Z with money factored in.

    Of course if they both hit free agency, you pay the bigger bucks for Big Z....but if you get a chance to improve this year's team with the trade (Sosa to bullpen included in that improvement) you do it...unless of course you think Sosa is actually better than the guy that is replacing him.

    4:05 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Buerhle has said everything but guaranteeing that he will sign with St. Louis the second he becomes a free agent. I think the Mets have roughly a 1% chance of re-signing him in the offseason.

    I would really hate to trade Milledge for a rental. Especially for a rental that has the potential to suck, which Buerhle does. He's had horrible second halves before. I don't like the deal at all.

    4:09 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    1. The reason I have thrown my cap in favor of Buerle is innings. glavine is at best a 5th starter, but el duque (age?) is injury prone and not exactly an innings eater anymore.

    Ultimately I see El Duque(or Sosa) in the pen. But Sosa is a little warmer right now, I'd lean on Sosa first, rest El Duque in the pen, where he has excelled. Then start El Duque if sosa fades.

    As for St Lou: Zambrano is quoted similarly.

    Then again I would go after AJ Burnett.

    Mr Met: I think Humber should be tried in the pen.. His issues at NOLA to me are endurance, and park related. I certainly think he'd help. I'd send Sele down to get innings.

    4:28 PM

    Blogger michael o. said...

    Well, I don’t want to trade Milledge for a rental and St. Louis is nice, but they look like they have ten years of darkness in front of them. Yes he has won something, but would he forgo the rest of prime years on a bad team? I guess you really have to gauge your chances of signing him through the back channels. I don’t think he’s suck though…I think he’d be very solid….and as stated above, he gives oodles of innings. More than Zito I believe over the last three seasons.

    Did Big Z. really state he wanted to go to St. Louis? Weird…what’s the connection there. Also, just because I want to go to the moon, doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen. Has St. Louis decided they need to go crazy for pitching in ’08? They have Carpenter, Wainwright, and Reyes. They need to bring the latter of the two along and work on their aging offense. Not sure them throwing tons of cash towards an arm is long term salutation for them. They have some work to do.

    Then again I would go after AJ Burnett.

    I would too as crazy as that sounds depending on how much they’d pick up. 55m through 2010. 12m in ‘8, ‘9, and ’10. That’s 36m overall (I know I’m stating the obvious here…) and if they pick up + $12 mill of that over three years, I think a salary dump makes sense with the upside. DL, DL, DL (again)…I know. But the upside is there and they shouldn’t have to give up much…if that fails, let him take over for Mr. Billy Wags as a closer and do what the Cubs should have done with Wood a long time ago. The only problem here is that Burnett can opt out in ’08….not that I expect him too even if he does have a big season, but it’s worth noting.

    RE: Humber. I’ve actually made that statement to my friend. I was like “don’t be surprised if Humber could put up better numbers in the friendly confines of Shea vs. NOLA and the PCL. The entire staff is getting shelled and I thought they were actually pretty good.” Then he just kept getting hit….and hit….13 hits in five innings hit….I don’t think the PCL would account for him getting lambasted. Now if the endurance thing is the issue, that is completely different and it might work better for him to work in short bursts. I’d like to see Mulvey in AAA to see what he can do as a litmus test. He’s killing AA and looks like he has nothing to prove there anyway.

    4:50 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Mr Met:
    Humber: remember Pulse, Izzy, Wilson? remember late in 99 when BV let Izzy work in relief then when traded Izzy became a closer...Would it be the worst of all outcomes if humber (ala izzy/dotel)became a releiver? and better yet (ala Reyes/wainright) later return the rotation.


    2. See above. There is NEGLIGIBLE difference in vargas/humber/lawrence..sothe next call up could-should be Humber (BP wise).


    6:24 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Oh and Mr Met/danny;
    If buerle did walk, there is alway Big Z and Johan santana...

    BTW; How come he (JS) is not mentioned in the rumor mill? Minn could also use Milledge..a Torii hunter clone.


    6:41 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I would give up anything for one year of Johan Santana.
    It makes me hope for a total Minnesota Twins collapse that sends them down to the depths of hell.
    Milledge, Gomez, Humber, Pelfrey, Carp, you can have them all.

    7:15 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Oh yes; Torii is in his walk year too. And Luis Castillo.........

    2. This IS what I was really afraid of, JS is auditioning for Omar.


    7:46 PM


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