Goodbye Glavine

I know there are a lot of people out there wondering how Glavine will be replaced. In regards to the '08 Glavine, I do not think it will be all that hard. Keith Law says it best and this is the main reason why I am not sorry he is gone.

Glavine's stuff is just about gone. His fastball is only 80-84 mph and looks softer than that, almost like BP fastballs. His curveball is a big slow roller around 75-77 mph, and his changeup -- once a plus pitch -- is fringe-average, mostly 74-75 mph, but the way his arm slows as he throws it is a tip-off to observant hitters. His command is good, but needs to be almost perfect, and his game plan is to avoid contact at all costs. If he's not getting a generous strike zone, he's in trouble because his stuff is so hittable, and he doesn't have a pitch with which he can fool hitters.

I just saw too many games where he just had nothing and if he was not getting an inch off the plate, he was done. You could tell if Glavine was going to have a 'good' day or a 'bad' day from how the umpire was calling the first pitches. Full count on the first few batters? Glavine was going to get shelled because he was not getting a generous zone. I do not think Glavine was doing anything different for the most part on this 'good' days and 'bad' days, but he needed assistance on the 'good' ones.

Yes, he gave us innings. Yes, he did some good things for this team. However, he is an aging Hall of Famer that is way past his prime and his usefulness. Give me a first round pick in '08 and someone else who can get remotely close to his 200 innings instead. It was time the Mets and Glavine part ways and those of you who think the Mets will miss him more than they think will not be saying that as he owns a 4.75 to 5.00 ERA mid-way through the year and labors through yet another season.

For Atlanta, the move has a second ramification beyond the money spent on the contract. Glavine was a Type A free agent, and by signing him before the arbitration deadline, Atlanta ceded its first-round draft pick to the Mets. New York now has the 18th pick, and the 20th pick if it doesn't sign a Type A free agent of its own, while Atlanta won't pick until the second round if it chooses not to offer arbitration to Andruw Jones. It's strange to see an organization that built a long run of success on scouting and player development give up a draft pick for a one-year player who might be a good fifth starter if everything breaks right, and it won't help the Braves restock their farm system after a cupboard-emptying July, when they dealt prospects to Texas for Mark Teixeira.

In regards to the Braves staff, they have two legit frontline starters. Glavine fits much better in the framework of their team being he will be a #3, #4, or #5 for them. With the Mets, Willie would have contiually treated him like their ace and probably would have been starting game one or two of any potential playoff run to maximize his usage in the playoffs. The Braves bolstered their rotation at the cost of a first round draft pick, but the Mets are clearly better off in my eyes. No more Glavine to shake his head at the Mets celebrating and no more hoping the umps are on our side when he starts. I for one, am happy.

* * *

Pitching pitching and more pitching...

Replacing the 200-1/3 innings that Glavine gave the Mets in 2007 will be the tougher of the two because the best free-agent starters - Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez - really don't belong at the top of a rotation. It will take a trade and though the Mets' farm system is shallow, Minaya believes there is enough to get someone who fits the description. He said he even is willing to combine major league players with prospects to get such a pitcher.

He added that he would rather go with Mets prospects than the available free agent arms. "I think Mike Pelfrey has very good potential to (match) what's out there and better," he said.

If the price is right, Silva and Lohse are not bad choices. They make the Mets younger and give them the precious innings that were vacated by Glavine. Also, the Mets are not necessarily looking for ace. They can do it with a solid rotation, good offense, and good bullpen as in 2006. They also have three pretty good pitchers at the front end in Pedro, Maine, and Perez. Ace material these days? No, but #2 to #3 types which is just fine in a consistent rotation.

And no, Blanton is not the right guy. Unless they are pitching for a power armed difference maker, why waste the prospects? Is he really that much better than what is out there?

The Angels pulled off a great trade to give them an excellent rotation and seems to be a precursor for another deal. Wood starting the year at short with Tejada at third seems about right to me.

Even Plan Z might be off the table this week in regards to the catching vacancy. Consider the Mets officially bent over. Though no GM would be advised to not make a deal because they could not rip the Mets off, but that is how many teams have dealt with the Mets over the years. Let's see if Omar can miraculously pull something off here without getting ripped off.

Magnificent Bastard

Here we go again.



Joe Torre might not be the smartest manager alive when it comes to Xs and Os. He might not be able to win any beauty contests. He might like to ruin the arms of certain relievers. However, you have to give the man credit. He knows how to pick a team.

He took over the Yankees when they were on the precipice of a dynasty and promptly won a World Series in his first year managing the Yankees after only posting a winning record in five of his previous fourteen years as a manager with no playoff appearances. A long time later, he is heralded as one of the greatest human beings ever to live on this planet and rumor has it that he shits gold nuggets.

Now, he takes over the reigns of a team that arguably is positioned for the best five to ten year run out of any team in the big leagues. No only do they have purchasing power, but they have insane prospects all over. Outfield, infield, the rotation, and the bullpen. If the Dodgers play their cards right, they could have a little mini-dynasty themselves over the next few years and guess who will only be adding to their legacy?

Yes, Joe Torre. After only notching a .500 or better record in five of fourteen years previous to becoming the Yankees skipper, he notched twelve straight winning seasons with a trip to the playoffs in every season. Now, he stands to build up his resume and continue piling up wins and playoff appearances while sitting in sunny LA. Make no mistake, he will miss the electricity of being around New York fans, but I do not think he will be complaining all that much.

* * *

Easley is back and he should be welcomed back by all. I thought he was great for the team and a valuable piece.

Here is a thought....if the Mets truly want to pursue A-Rod, tell him he can play first base for the New York Mets. If it comes down to money and the Mets are the most generous, then great. Let him choose to play for the Mets or third base for someone else. I think the Mets should be done asking their more than capable future MVPs to move anywhere.

Moises is back in what was no brainer move #1 for the Mets.

Four or five years for a 37-year old catcher coming off of a career year? No thanks. I know he could slide down to first at any time after this year, but he does not nearly put up the offense for first and people should not get blinded by his 2007 season, which is far out of line with his previous years. He batted over .280 exactly twice and never above .290. He also only slugged over .500 once prior to last season. Did he just become a vastly better hitter in '07? Doubtful. These things happen and I am not sure Posada would be worth what it would take to get him here. The Mets might be paying Delgado money to him to put up Delgado's '07 numbers at first for a while. Jorge loses all his value when he is not catching and history does not bod well for 37+ year old catchers.

Curt Schilling is eying the Mets.

Here is the deal. If the Mets shift The Duque to the pen and were looking to bring Glavine back, get Schilling. No need to go down the Glavine road again as it is time they break ties with him and Schilling has the ability to be worlds more effective at this point in his career.

Nate Silver hits the nail on the head.

What They Should Do: Weak Buy. Repeat after me: There is no need to panic. The Mets absolutely have to find themselves a catcher, since Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro are free agents. They were wise to re-sign Moises Alou in left field, but should not do the same with Shawn Green in right, instead leaving the job to Lastings Milledge. And they may need to sign or re-sign a second baseman, as Ruben Gotay might or might not be a capable regular. But none of those swaps should require a substantial increase in payroll, and the starting pitching isn't the disaster that it seems, since even assuming that Tom Glavine departs, Pedro Martinez has been resuscitated to take his place. Sure, it wouldn't hurt if the Mets increased their spending a little, giving the 3.8 million fans who turned out to Shea Stadium last year something to chew on. But with CitiField set to open in 2009, it's more the talk radio jocks than the fans that need to be placated.

What They Will Do: Strong Buy. It's not like Omar Minaya needs many excuses to be aggressive, and he'll have several after the Mets' flop in September. Mets fans will have to hope that youngsters such as Milledge and Fernando Martinez aren't collateral damage.

Righteous.

Quick aside...I sometimes enter words in google to check their spelling. Apparently, my first spelling of it was wrong and this is what came up:

1. richeous

A misspelling of the word righteous. Dumbass.

You spelled righteous richeous, you are a a dumbass.

Fun With Game Scores

There comes a time in everyone's life when they have to look into the mirror and admit something. As hard as it may be to face the truth sometimes, it needs to happen. For Tom, he needs to look in the mirror and admit he has lost a little something...or maybe a lotta something.

I know I am getting ahead of myself here since there is a lot of baseball to be played, but 'tis my nature. When the playoffs hit, I cannot help but think a certain pitcher with some porcelain veneers will be toeing the rubbing in game #1. That means he is the guy most likely to start more playoff games than any other Met. Those are not odds I'm prepared to take.

I'm a proponent of putting your best foot forward as obvious as that seems. When you are running in a race, you would be ill advised to start off sitting down, facing backwards, or parcheesi. But if Glavine starts because he is the 'ace' of the staff, that could spell bad news for the Mets.

For one, if there is a game #5 in the NLDS, the least effective Met pitcher would be trying to keep the Mets season going. I know there are legions of fans out there that would say they trust him in the playoffs, but I just point back the 'no such thing as clutch hitting' theory. Is it possible that someone actually pitches better than they are normally capable of just because it is the playoffs?

I would tend to think that anyone who has outstanding stats (or conversely for guys who struggled like Bonds had in the playoffs early on) are subject to sample size. While I think people can shrink in big games, others simply pitch to their ability. Is there any logical reason that Jeff Suppan is post-season beast? I do not think he rises to the occasion per se, but he goes out and has confidence and pitches to his ability. He only has 54 innings and his nice stats are probably just a result of sample size more than anything.

I would prefer not basing the game #1 starter on the false notion of rising to the occasion or past successes. I think Maine or Perez showed they can handle the pressure of the playoffs and if Mets want their best chance of winning, Maine and Perez should be heading the playoff rotation and they should be followed by The Duque and Glavine. By setting it up that way, you can ensure your three best starters are getting the first three starts of the first two series.

You simply cannot be worried about bruised egos and you simply cannot be living in the past. Maine and Perez have been outstanding for the Mets this year whereas Glavine seems like he is running on fumes. For some proof of the gap between their performances, let us look at the current Mets five starter's games scores. Game scores are a good way to slap a number on the overall effectiveness of a pitcher whereas a quality start is a yes or no thing. This gives you more depth.

           # of GSc over 50       % of GSc over 50
John Maine         13                  65%
Tom Glavine        10                  45%
Oliver Perez       13                  76%
Jorge Sosa          7                  54%
The Duque          11                  65%

A quality start is a score of 50 or above. Glavine has put up a non-quality start in more than half of his starts. Oliver Perez has gone from Mr. Inconsistent to just being the pantheon of consistency. Also, a stunning twelve of Maine's starts have been over 60 and eleven of The Duque's have been over 60. More than half of their starts have been flat out gems. In the playoffs, pitching wins out most of the time and the Mets best shot for a shut down game does not involve Glavine. I'm not giving up on Glavine and would not mind him starting in the playoffs and believe he should, but he should get less starts than the rest. Lately when he pitches I would rather be waxing the hair from around my nipples than watch him.

* * *

Milledge got hit for hot-dogging and Willie gave him what appeared to be a stern talking to for a hustle play...what a surprise! Was Lastings supposed to shun Reyes when he came out to celebrate yesterday? It took a perfect throw to get Milledge or else he would have been safe and it was a perfect throw. Sucks, but hardly a punishable offense. I wonder if he is going to get hit tomorrow for that fancy handshake with Paul LoDuca by the mound after the game.

Lastings has a bad reputation already and I'm not quite sure what he can do. He brushed himself off after getting hit for the second time in two games and ran to first with no looks or anything and that is what he needed to do. I guess the Pirates took more offense than they should have but again, they could always show him up by...you know...winning.

"I like to use the word colorful," Milledge said. "It's kind of like if you've got two TVs, and one's in color and the other one's in black-and-white, which one do you choose? Both are kind of the same thing, but the other one is kind of more appealing to the eye."

Overall though, Willie is not against Milledge and giving him reminders is not a bad thing. Hopefully he just keeps proving that he can be a spark for this team much in the way Pence and Braun have sparked their respective teams. I am by no means suggesting he will put up crazy numbers like them, but he can make a difference.

Why is Lee Mazzilli orange?

If Beltran is injured, he needs to rest. Pulled muscles are nothing to screw around with and pushing it can make it much worse. Rest Beltran and let Milledge roam center for a few days against these weaker teams so he can be ready for the Brewers and the Cubs.

I like the sound of Ted's jib. Milledge's stock is hotter than the 2003 version of Kelly Clarkson, but Omar would probably have to be bowled over at this point to move him.

I don't think Minaya is really counting on Pedro as much him just giving obvious answers to the media's questions. However, I am starting to get a bit leery of his return. I wasn't really counting on him to start the season and I let myself get mixed up in the hype and started thinking he would be back.

No need to rush Alou. As with Beltran, why rush him back and risk further injury for the dregs of the NL and with Milledge providing some firepower?

Adam Bostick had a nice start for the Zephyrs.

Caleb Stewart and the Double-A for lifer Brett Harper each went 2 for 4 with a homer in the B-Mets win over Altoona.

Nick Carr went five innings and gave up three hits, one earned run, three runs overall, and one walk while striking out nine for the Cyclones.

I know I have not been playing nice with Tom Glavine, but it is great to see him get win #299. If he does not win #300 on the road, I will dust off my Glavine jersey and head out to the stadium to support him and watch him go for 300.

Tom Terrific?

From DG on Friday:
So, just an observation in regards to Glavine. Three innings so far - and the Detroit loss as well - and I kind of find myself wishing that he'd get his 300th then fade away next season. He cannot beat a patient team. You just really get the impression that he's scuffling toward his career mark and that there's not really that much left in the tank. Take off twenty years and put him in the Questec era, and you really have to wonder how long of a career he would have.

This is one topic that I've been thinking about a lot recently. I actually sent this question into Jerry Crasnick's last chat, but it didn't make it on. Basically I asked this:

Glavine is getting killed lately when he gets squeezed or even gets a true strikezone. If he doesn't get an inch or two off the plate, he simply does not have the stuff to get people out in the zone. You have to wonder if he would have a Hall of Fame career if he didn't have a generous strikezone early in his career. Of course he would have been good, but perhaps not a soon to be immortal.

Back in the 90's, Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux were the beneficiaries of a very generous strike zone and the fabled one foot extension of the plate on the outside corner.

These days, umps are pressured into calling a more true strike zone and the invention of Questec had helped start that. In Glavine's first year here, there was a big to do about the Questec and how it affected Tom Glavine's starts at Shea. The end result was a sub-par year for Glavine. An adjustment was made by Tom and he started using a change-up inside and he looked as good as ever again. I'm not sure if it was a mechanical tweak, his inside change-up, or him getting a bit wider strikezone again, but he looked like he was back on track. Now the league has caught back up with him, he's doing something wrong mechanically, or the zone is tighter.

These days, I have zero confidence in him putting up a sparkling start. Like DG said, a patient team is not going to chase that fading change-up off the the plate. A younger team might, but he doesn't seem to be fooling anyone these days and laboring through his starts piling up 40+ pitches in two innings in to many starts lately. He still has ten quality starts out of fifteen starts, but he's gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. He has five wins and is on pace for twelve which would leave him at 302. However, I'm not even sure he is a sure bet to break 300 with the way he is pitching and the Mets are playing. Scary to think about it, but if he doesn't reach 300, we might see him again in 2008 and that would seemingly be a very bad thing.

* * *

Carlos Beltran....he's hurt.

Beltran, who went 0-for-6 Saturday, admits that he has been bothered by a nagging left quad injury, the Daily News reports.
Spin: Beltran plans to play through the discomfort, acknowledging that he can ill-afford to go on the DL, given the state of the Mets' banged-up outfield. Beltran, who added that rest would "probably" fix the injury, said he feels more discomfort when he bats lefty, since it requires him to put added weight on his left leg when he swings.

The Mets have now dropped 11 of 14. If he sat or even went on the DL, how much worse could it be? The fact is, an unhealthy Beltran is not helping this team one iota. At least a healthy Beltran might help this team string a run together. With Gomez heating up a bit and bringing his average up to respectable levels and Milledge around the corner, Beltran can and should take the time he needs and at some point. Met management needs to make that decision because Beltran is not going to make it and a week might do him wonders.

Randolph is not concerned about Beltran's leg and Beltran did look much better on Monday.

Yankee fans now know the name Oliver Perez pretty well. He is 2-0 against them with a 1.20 ERA and a .192 BAA in two games this season. Watching him deal on Friday was a delight. Unfortunately, that was the only nice thing about this weekend. Watching the aforementioned Glavine continually give it back to the Yankees was exasperating beyond belief and I had no confidence in the Mets getting to Wang. It seems the Mets always have trouble with guys that have heavy sink.

What to do now? Not much. Still, the starting pitching is not of paramount concern to me and the offense is not going to get upgrade. What we see is what we are going to get with the exception of Lastings Milledge getting added to the roster when he returns and has a short rehab stint. The bullpen? Not many people are available outside of some guys from Texas and probably some guys that do not appreciably upgrade the team. Basically the Mets have to fix this team and straighten it out with what the currently have.

Depending upon how you feel about the team right now, that could either be encouraging or very, very discouraging. I don't have any doubts they will straighten out, but I do think they look a bit weaker overall than I thought.

Wright, Beltran, and Reyes are still leading the charge in their respective positions. While Miguel Cabrera is getting shut-out here, it certainly is not a stretch for Wright to be in the All-Star game after picking it up. Beltran on the other hand is simply not playing well enough to earn a spot, but hopefully he turns it around like Wright did to make it a moot point.

Marc Raimondi says that John Maine should be included as well.

In 14 starts, he has given up more than three runs only twice and has made it out of the fifth inning all but once. The Mets are 9-5 when he starts and they won his first seven outings of the season before tapering off lately.

Though Maine hit a lull, him and Perez have certainly pitched well enough this season to get some strong consideration. Both are in the top six of ERA and are up there in wins. Also helping out Perez's case is the fact that LaRussa is going to be picking and one has to think Ollie's game seven performance has not been lost on Tony.

Does T.R. Sullivan really get paid for this?

Will the Rangers trade Sammy Sosa once he gets his 600th home run? I would think you can get something good for him.
-- Ralph T., Fort Worth

I don't see trading Sosa, unless it would be to the New York Mets. That's something to watch. Otherwise, it's hard to envision.

First of all you have to assume that it would be an American League team so he could be a DH. But who? The Red Sox have David Ortiz, the Indians have Travis Hafner, the Tigers have Gary Sheffield, the White Sox have Jim Thome and the Athletics are getting Mike Piazza back. The Angels use Vladimir Guerrero too much at DH.

I definitely could see Mets general manager Omar Minaya being interested in Sosa if his outfield problems continue, but it's doubtful that another NL team would be interested unless it's as a platoon player or pinch-hitter. Then the Rangers wouldn't get much in return.

But watch out for the Mets.

The Mets ain't trading for no Sammy Sosa.

Did he ever have a chance?

Lonnie Wheeler thinks the time is right to deal Adam Dunn. Ummm....the time was right two years ago to trade him. Now it's pointless. The Reds have no one to blame but themselves and it's not really a wonder why they are in the place they are in.

A-Rod is hot again....

In his last 28 games, Rodriguez has 12 homers and 34 RBIs. That is more homers than any Yankee has all season and as many RBIs as Bobby Abreu. Yet it is the 22 games that came before this stretch that accentuates his season.

In 28 games, his production numbers look exactly like David Wright's overall numbers. Nuts. Sherman thinks that he could be the first player with an annual contract of $30 million. I don't see that happening just yet, but he's going to get something really, really, really big.

The Mets FINALLY played an all around dominating game. The starting pitching was as tight as a camel's ass in a sandstorm, the bullpen put up goose eggs (Pedro #2 allowed an inherited run to score on a bloop), and the offense was relentless. FINALLY a game I could watch without slightly regurgitating in my mouth...well Friday's game was pretty good as well, but this was more well rounded.