A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Friday, January 04, 2008

Hypothetically Speaking

Let us say for a moment that the Mets needed to include Gomez, F-Mart, Mulvey, and Pelfrey to compete with the packages of the Red Sox and Yankees for Johan. Of course I have no idea if that is truly even and offer, but Jayson Stark mentioned that the Twins had asked for all of them in addition to Humber. You cannot blame them as you have to start somewhere and leave room for the Mets to negotiate down.

Would that be a remotely intelligent move? I have a hard time believing so. As stated yesterday, Oliver Perez is set to hit the market with The Duque and Pedro. Of course they can all come back, but it would cost close over $35 million to do so on top of the $20 million they are paying Johan and the raise John Maine would be due to get.

Then, you would have to look at the depth of the system and gag just a bit with a complete dearth of talent at the top of the system with the exception of Phil Humber able to contribute meaningfully at the big league level. If you are counting on the three picks of the '08 draft that have not even been picked yet to bolster this team's future, that might be a little optimistic. Those picks need to be a supplement of players already in the system.

Deolis Guerra, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, Phil Humber, Brant Rustich, Scott Moviel, Nate Vinyard, Robert Parnell, and a few others are still around, but that would unequivocally be one of the worst three systems in baseball. Three picks, even if they all pan out and the Mets are able to score top tier talent that dropped a bit are not going to change that much. Also, the only meaningful players set to step on a big league diamond before 2010/2011 will be Humber and a few relievers.

Not that I enjoy adding more caveats, but the likelihood of those guys stepping on the field being impact players their first season or two is extremely unlikely which pushes back the time line a bit for them to be a vital part of this team. Of course, that is all predicated upon these guys, who have so far to go, working out. It is scary out there on the free agent market and with more teams having cash and letting less and less talent go, you simply need to be able grow some players. By the time Reyes and Wright are done being cheap, the Mets are set to virtually have no cheap help from within barring anything big going on and they will have plenty of holes to fill.

If you are are not developing, you are not winning. I want Johan and who wouldn't? But it can certainly be argued that the Mets are not in as dire of a need as many think with Pedro, Ollie, and Maine leading the team. They give the Mets a shot to win in a short series and provide a solid foundation for the pitching staff in '08. This 'get Johan at all costs' idea does not resonate all that well with me and the Mets are not quite at the point where they can trade five top prospects for one player, but should strive to get to that point with a few good drafts, holding onto their top picks, and paying out over slot.

Johan makes the Mets favorites, but it is a big gamble and big loss if they do not win it all. It is tough to pass up on a deal like this, but if Omar truly cares about 2009 and beyond, he better tread lightly. I am not saying there is no package the Mets can put together that makes sense both now and long term, but the ones we have heard bandied about that it will take to land Johan are certainly not a positive thing for this team after 2008.

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  • Swisher dealt to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, and Faustino De Los Santos? Wow. I have to say that Kenny Williams has made some bold moves this off-season, but he does have two young and extremely solid to very good outfielders on his hands now. I like Swisher a lot, as many of you all do, and he is still under control for a while. If you are going to trade youth, you need to get youth back. I'm sure people will be saying Williams gave up a lot to get him, but it seems fair in my eyes given the contact status of Swisher.

    I was not all that huge of a fan of the Garland move, but Williams has put together an interesting off-season if nothing else and definitely made some aggressive moves to cover some holes. At this point, Beane absolutely needs to just rid the team of Blanton and whatever other tradeable commodities there are, but you have to be ok with his current haul so far if you are an Oakland fan. It is never easy to see your team rebuild, but doing it intelligently should cushion the blow.
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    Thursday, January 03, 2008

    First Post of '08

    I hope everyone had a good time over New Year's. I had a swellicious, scandalous, and rapacious one. Unfortunately, I have to wait a year to do it again.

    Now back to the snoozefest that we call the baseball off-season. Some random items:

  • When there is little else to do during these dark days of baseball, you can look ahead. Mentioned within the piece is Oliver Perez. We talked about him and John Maine in the beginning of last season and the impending free agency Oliver Perez. Deals on guys like Vincente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan are painting a very clear picture.

    Oliver Perez will get paid and Scott Boras will make sure of that. It would be nice if the Mets could get him inked to a nice four year $44 million extension, but that will not happen. Not unless Perez loves New York a whole lot and we all know you do not hire Scott Boras to get you signed with a team in a town that you love.

    However, despite a solid year last season, Perez is still someone that not many people count on. Even with an '08 that rivals his '07, there will still be many doubters, but it will not matter. He is young and he is lefty. He will get a giant contract and one has to wonder if that contract will be from the Mets.

    I think it is worth the risk for Mets to ink him during Spring Training if they could at something less than what he can get on the open market. Perez's incentive will be security and the Mets might continue to have a 'bargain' on their hands. Odds are he sniffs free agency though since not many players get to be in their prime and a free agent.

    Just some more food for though, the Mets have three starters slated to hit the open market next off-season with only John Maine having any sort of big league experience set to be around. I cannot state plainly enough how imperative it is to get Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber some meaningful innings this year to see if they can take that next step because two of Humber, Pelfrey, and Mulvey might be a bigger part of the '09 rotation than the Mets would like.

  • By way of Rob Never, Vegas Watch takes a scary look into the Hall of Fame voters reasoning skills.

      "During a visit to Yankee Stadium in the late 1970s, I wanted to talk to Goose but was told he was cruel and gruff to reporters. I sheepishly introduced myself and said I was from Colorado, his home state, and he talked pleasantly for 30 minutes. We've been good friends since. I would vote for him even if he wasn't deserving."
    Not much analysis needed here, beyond this. At least others were seemingly trying. Did you really expect someone else in this spot?

    Amazing stuff. It is a shame that the thing that is supposed to pay the ultimate respect to the best players of the game we love so much is a heaping pile of shit.

  • Boring days also seem to insight crazy talk. Would Yu Darvish get posted? Not unless someone would make it worth it for the Ham Fighters to give up a lot of years of Japan's best player and pay a $100 million posting fee, which would be totally insane. The Daisuke posting fee of $51 million was borderline insane and at no point can I come up with some logic that allows Darvish to be worth an insane posting fee and the money it would take to convince him to sign. If the posting fee runs higher than Daisuke's and the team that inks him gets him for six years, what would he cost annually? The posting fee and his salary would run his cost for six years of service higher than what Johan Santana is looking for over seven years. Pure insanity.

    That's it. Nothing going on whatsoever in baseball.
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