It's Monday and We're Mediocre!

For now at least....

I say that thinking maybe, just maybe the Mets are poised to break out. Jose has his OPS+ up to 117 and is looking like an MVP again. Shame on everyone who started to say crazy things like the Mets should have dished him off for Santana and not Gomez (102 OPS+ in the OF...a 117 OPS+ at short is miles more valuable), Mulvey (4.07 ERA and .279 BAA in Rochester), Humber (5.53 ERA and .300 BAA in Rochester), and Guerra (4.23 ERA). I like all those guys and still believe in them long term, but Jose Reyes is worth more than all of them in a trade.

The Mets are now tied with Atlanta who has been in a bit of a free fall and are 3.5 games in back of the Phillies. One game of .500 means the Mets are pretty close to under .500 which is a bad thing for a $140 million team. After going 1-7 from May 14th through May 26th, the Mets have went 5-1 to get over the hump of respectability and need to apply the pressure with San Fran, San Diego, Texas, Seattle, and Colorado in their not so distant future.

Sure I am stating the obvious, but the obvious is not always that obvious. Take Aaron Heilman for example. He is murdering righties to the tune of a .209/.291/.239 while getting murdered by lefties to the tune of a .391/.473/.783 line. And yet he faces way too many lefties. Why is this? I have no idea but he has to be a ROOGY or demoted to figure things out. Those are the two options. I still think he has some skill, but it is not showing itself right now. Enter the problem....Feliciano is playing more like a LOOGY and now the Mets have two ROOGYs.

That is entirely too many guys who have trouble with batters from the opposite side of the plate. Schoeneweis has been great, but still showing a bit of a LOOGY split. This bullpen has the ability to be tremendous, but Feliciano and Heilman need to figure out how they got guys from the opposite side of the plate out in 2007 or else they will be in trouble. Simply too many specialists and bullpen that is not deep enough. If Dirty can actually stick this time, that will be a big boon and I think Vargas should help out in the pen as well, but right now, Heilman should be a ROOGY with Smith and Feliciano picking up more of a role as a non-specialist until something works itself out.

* * *

Keith Law talks draft and it seems as though the Mets might have to rethink their choice of picks.

Brett Lawrie is heavily in Cincinnati's mix at No. 7, while Jason Castro has popped up at No. 8 to the White Sox or perhaps at No. 9 to Washington. If the Reds don't take a college pitcher, then both Houston (Aaron Crow?) and Texas (Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich) will likely go in that direction, unless a top player falls to Texas due to signability concerns.

Castro was who the Mets were targeting with one of their two first rounds picks and Law mused that Lawrie might be a fit for the Mets who are looking for more positional depth.

With so many bad managers out there, you would think Wally Backman would get a shot.

"All I need is an interview," Wally Backman said. "If they want the best person to take care of their players, I know I'm the right guy. I'll earn my spot."

Backman wasn't talking about Willie Randolph's job. He was talking about any job in the New York Mets organization or any job in affiliated baseball. Because each major league team has about seven minor league teams, that's about 200 managerial jobs. Backman, a three-time manager of the year award winner, is not good enough for one of those?

What is the harm in giving him a spot in the farm to see how he does?

Mark Prior = D - O - N - E

Jay Bruce? Pretty good. And really, this really shows you a thing or two about drafting. The Mets were down to Pelfrey and Bruce in the 2005 draft and they went with Pelfrey. Not that I could argue all that much at the time because Pelfrey looked special, but their age and perceived 'closeness' to the bigs probably factored in.

Jay Bruce owns a cool 331 OPS+ (albeit in six games) at 21 years old and looks like a super star and Mike Pelfrey owns an 81 ERA+ at 24 (soon to be 25) and is still trying to find his way. Who do you think would help more this season? Draft the top talent on the board and operate in no other fashion. The rest will work itself out and they really need to take note of this for the upcoming draft.

Kunz is in AA with a 3.91 ERA. I would have preferred a high school guy with huge upside than a close to the bigs reliever. Enough with the draft disasters of the past few years and loosen the purse strings and get some fucking talent.

Pedro is more of a character to me these days than a big part of this team's success. It is nice to have him around an all, but I am not expecting much. That is not to say he can not and will not add much, but I think people should temper their expectations on what type of impact he will have on this team. I think he adds to the clubhouse in a big way, but I find it hard to pin the happiness of the team on one guy.

I used to think otherwise, but I have changed my mind. He might help out the bullpen by pushing Vargas out there, but that will remain to be seen as a big help until Vargas starts producing out there.

Pelfrey has been bad, but not bad enough to jettison him back to the minors. How bad would any one of us rip another organization for taking a big league retread like Vargas, who has done well, over a guy who might be a big part of the team's future?

I think Pelfrey needs to stay. Vargas has an ERA+ of 90 vs. Pelfrey's ERA+ of 81. Vargas is 30 going on 31 and Pelfrey is 24 going on 25. Unless Pelfrey blows up, he needs to stay in the rotation and the Mets have to think about what they really want from him because right now the difference is minimal. If they are done with him and think he offers nothing, then move on. If they still think he can offer something, as I do, he 100% needs to stay.

Ryan Church is still playing some insanely good ball. He was concussed and just came back so I get batting him sixth, but he needs to start hitting in the top third of the order. Bat him 2nd or 3rd and adjust accordingly. I would not mind getting Church more RBI opportunities and more protection.

Enter in the problem....Castillo now has an OPS+ of 98 and has become league average. But it is the worst league average you can be with his nine XBHs. Sure he steals a few bases, but with the exception of his recent power surge, does not offer much thump. Give me some thump through the top of order and I'll show you a team that can wear out the opposing starting pitchers quickly.

Tatis has been playing well and the Mets should ride him like a rented mule.

At least Aaron has a good support system... Just so crazy how one of the top relievers in the bigs can go to crap. I still believe he can turn it around, but now you have to wonder if it is more mental than anything else.

BP has some valuable insight into Johan.

When Santana was supposedly heading to the Red Sox or Yankees, there were whispers that his problems with the long ball would be exacerbated there, due to their parks' respective leanings towards aiding offense. When he was eventually dealt to the Mets, these whispers were silenced, thanks to the offense-dampening Shea Stadium. However, what we have seen from Santana in 2008 belies the nature of the stadium, as his HR/9 has climbed from 1.4 to 1.5 per nine. Granted, he's gone from giving up 30 homers per 200 innings to 32 over the same time frame, but the thing that has Mets fans worried is that he was supposed improve, at least superficially, thanks to a league switch and move to a pitcher-friendly haven.

This has not happened for a few reasons. First, Santana has lost additional velocity. He's dipped another half-a-mile per hour on his fastball, which had already dropped from 93.1 to 91.7 mph. He rarely used his cutter in the past, but it's been cut out of the equation entirely at this point. The past two seasons have shown Santana using his fastball more so than in the past, despite its status as an inferior pitch relative to what he was capable of before. It's a bit much to say Santana's lost it—he's still one of the top pitchers in the NL thanks to low walk totals and a still-excellent 7.9 K/9—but this is not the Santana the Mets thought they were trading for, the one they signed to pitch for them through 2013. Though it has not hurt them too much in 2008—the Mets have other problems to focus on outside of Santana's rising homer totals—it's something that's going to become bothersome and problematic in the future if their expensive ace can't figure out a way to pitch his way out of this recent trend.

It is hard to say he has been a complete disappointment, but his drop in velocity and the fact he is not as dominating as expected is worrisome. Pedro was more dominating in his first year as a Met at four years older. While Johan has basically been in line with his 2007 performance, I think we all expected more.

The $75m Club

If history tells us anything, it is that big contracts to pitchers typically do not have a good ending. However, it would be silly to just make a blanket statement about every single contract and lump them into one big stinking pile of bad contracts, which is what plenty of people try and do when judging the monstrous amount of money the Mets threw at Johan.

Player            Club      Years    Total
Johan Santana     NYM      2008-13  $137.5m
Barry Zito         SF      2007-13    $126m
Mike Hampton   Col-Fl-Atl  2001-08    $121m
Kevin Brown      LA-NYY    1999-05    $105m
Carlos Zambrano   Cubs     2008-12   $91.5m
Mike Mussina      NYY      2001-06   $88.5m
Pedro Martinez    Bos      1998-03     $75m
Chan Ho Park      Tex      2002-06     $75m

The detractors and jealous Yankee fans might be quick to point out these history of these types of signings, but how they are even comparable is beyond me.

1) Barry Zito: He was looking like he was in decline already and relied on a mid-80's fastball and 12-6 curveball. Should that ever be worth $126m? I mean, the Mets $75m bid was too much in retrospect much less the Giants offer. He had an ERA+ of 101, 113, and 116 leading up to that contract and his durability is worth something, but a bit less than what the Mets were offering. Zito was still living off his tremendous 2002 season and very good 2001 and 2003 seasons.

2) Mike Hampton: People forget how good he was in the two years leading up to this contract. He was at the right age and was a tremendous athlete and you could really tell how athletic he was by the way he fielded his position. He might be the closest comp to Johan's current situation, but Colorado is not Queens. Hampton just picked the wrong city (he loved the schools?!?!?!?!?!), which is too bad for him. He was primed to become the elite lefty in the National League.

3) Kevin Brown: When he was given this contract, he was in his mid-30's. That is a desperate move bereft of intelligence. He was really, really good. However, that big of a contract to any pitcher in their mid-30's is a tremendous risk.

4) Carlos Zambrano: This one has not been a bust or good just yet. However, I am quite optimistic this one will work out.

5) Mike Mussina: For one, Johan will have three years of prime time pitching under his belt before he even gets to the age Mussina was when he entered the first year of this contract. Second, Mussina ain't no Johan. While Mussina was very good and some people will argue a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, he is not an elite pitcher. He was a very, very good pitcher for a long time and did give the Yankees their money's worth for a few years before falling apart.

6) Pedro Martinez: He had a tasty ERA+ of 163, 243, 291, 189, 202, and 210 from '98 to '03. I think it is safe to say that worked out quite well for the Red Sox. He was 26 when he inked that deal and was actually quite good through age 33 before breaking down and needing surgery. Johan is inked for ages 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34. Given his history and fastball/change repertoire vs. relying the majority of time on more stressful pitches, I like Johan's chances of replicating Pedro's dominance through similar ages.

7) Chan Ho Park: ERA+ from 1996 through 2001....107, 115, 108, 82, 133, and 113. If anyone thinks he was worth that much money, stand up now. Right. No one. That was a desperation move made because A-Rod was in the fold. The Rangers needed and ace and falsely thought Park was one. It is not that Park was bad, he had one really good year and quite a few above average ones, but that is not worth $15m per season by any stretch of the imagination.

There are only three comparable signings listed above. Pedro, Hampton, and Big Z. All were elite pitchers at the time they signed and were inked to huge deals. The rest are irrelevant and not very good comparisons at all. You could toss Oswalt's $73 million deal that began in 2007 into the mix, but that is too early to tell just yet either. So far though, it looks like a good deal because Oswalt was back and kicking some ass in 2007.

Anyone quick to judge this deal via comparisons between other huge paydays for pitchers are really stretching things. When you compare Johan to pitchers of similar age and pitching stature, things do not look as risky than if you wanted to just broadly look at every deal $75m+, which just proves futile for obvious reasons. Johan is as good as any pitcher to bet on for making a six year mega deal worth every penny.

* * *

Pedro and the Mets are happy about his simulated game. He topped out at 87 mph which means something to me. It means that he is not completely in game form yet and he will probably add a few MPHs onto this fastball. Now the key to that was he 'topped out at 87 mph', but if he can dial it up to 89 or 90 every once in a while, he will be veeeeery effective. Shit, he could effective at 87 mph, but the point is it is early for him so expect some more velocity.

Pedro also said he is looking for a three year deal maximum after this year. I would assume no one takes that chance, but two years seems more likely or a one year with an easily attainable vesting option if his pickings are slim. For me, he screams Greg Maddux. I see them following the same type of path which allows them to be pretty damn good for however long they want to lace them up. I would not put it past Pedro to rack up 45 wins in 2008, 2009, and 2010.

Armando might have found some work with the Blue Jays. He is coming to camp on a minor league deal and will have to earn a spot, which seems like an uphill battle at this point.

"He hasn't got in shape, but we're going to keep stockpiling as many arms as we can," said Ricciardi. "Nothing ventured, nothing gained. We're not looking for a closer."

Wow. Sounds encouraging for Benitez.

The $24 million man is inching back.

Spring stats mean nothing for the most part, but Angel Pagan is making me feel better. He was a decent minor leaguer, albeit with no power, and showed he could hold a place down in the lineup while playing with the Cubs. Again, he would be batting 7th or 8th so I think the Mets would be just fine with him for an extended period of time.

"I got to see him a couple of years ago, so it's not like he was completely foreign to me," Randolph said. "He's always had the talent, so it's nothing [that] really surprised me. He's consistent right now and playing well. His athleticism is what jumps out at you, because he does a lot of things for you. I wouldn't say I'm surprised. It's been a couple of years since I've seen him, and he's matured a little bit."

Another Martinez fluff article.

The Mets are looking for a platoon partner for Church? I for one will be upset if they do. I want to see what he can do and believe and can do very well as a full time player.

In a related note, the Mets are eyeing Stewart and Reed Johnson.

Let Church play! Let Church play! Let Church play!

No No, No, No No No, No No

Joe Posnanski had a nice post about something weighing heavily on our feeble minds.

There are so many fun things to be found in The Bill James Handbook. I was glancing through it again in my flu-ridden stupor and ran across his pitchers most likely to throw a no-hitter along with their percentages.

1. Scott Kazmir, 24%
2. Erik Bedard, 23%
3. Jake Peavy, 20%
4. Johan Santana, 17%
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 13%
6. A.J. Burnett, 12%
7. Chris Young, 12%
8. Tim Lincecum, 12%
9. Javier Vazquez, 11%
10. Oliver Perez, 11%

Mind you, this actually has some statistical relevance. There was actual thought and number crunching that helped comprise this list. I am a bit shocked at Vazquez's inclusion here, but the rest have that domination factor. When they are on, they are unhittable and they have devastating out pitches that are second to none when they are working. Joe also assembles his own list in a non-scientific manner, but it is hard to argue with his list.

1. Johan Santana.

I’m stunned that not only has Santana never thrown a no-hitter, he’s never thrown a one-hitter. He’s never thrown a two-hitter. Of course, the reason for that is simple: Santana does not complete games — the guy has six complete games in his career so far.

You have to agree with his #1 choice and that is not being a homer. The guy is moving to the NL with a big park and a good, and sometimes great when Endy subs in for Alou, defense behind him. As for him not completing games, who cares? If you could see the look on my face, you would see the look of a person who does not care. The guy has simply no reason to push himself and has logged more innings than any human since 2004. If all the chips are down, I have no doubt he will push it.

2. Chris Young.

He has led the major leagues in fewest hits allowed per nine innings each of the last two years, which is pretty amazing. But when it comes to pitching into the late innings, he makes Johan Santana look like Robin Roberts. Young had made 99 starts in his still young career and he has completed exactly 0.0 of those games. Not one complete game. He currently ranks fifth on that all-time list, most starts without a complete game (behind Tony Armas, Casey Fossum, Shawn Chacon and Claudio Vargas) and I would say he is by the most accomplished starter to never complete a game.

Fewest hits per nine? Nice. Despite the facts, I am not agreeing with his place among the top ten. Also, other factors apply which you will see down the line.

3. Scott Kazmir.

One complete game in young Kaz’s career. You know, I realized that the complete game is way, way down and everything, but I guess until I started looking at young pitchers, I had never really put it in proper perspective.

Pitcher of the 1950s:
Warren Spahn (215 complete games) or Robin Roberts (237 CGs).
Pitcher of the 1960s: Juan Marichal (196 CGs) or Bob Gibson (165 CGs)
Pitcher of the 1970s: Jim Palmer (175 CGs) or Tom Seaver (147 CGs)
Pitcher of the 1980s: Jack Morris (133 CGs) or Fernando Valenzuela (102 CGs)
Pitcher of the 1990s: Greg Maddux (75 CGs) or Roger Clemens (57 CGs)
Pitcher of the 2000s: Randy Johnson (30 CGs), Pedro (18 CGs), Johan Santana (6 CGs) or Clemens (3 CGs).

We’re there — we’re at that ground floor in baseball now where the complete game is so outdated that it’s possible that the best pitcher in the 2010s might not complete a single game. Or maybe, who knows, some manager and GM will figure that the best way they could score runs would be to go to the old Earl Weaver and Casey Stengel method of platooning, and that will mean the need to have more hitters, thus fewer pitcher, and that would lead to more complete games. I doubt it — as Bill James will tell you the complete game has been dwindling pretty consistently since the beginning of the 20th Century.

It seems unlikely now for that trend to ever get reversed. Anyway, Kazmir’s stuff is so overpowering, he will — assuming he stays healthy — have more than one shot at a no-hitter, I think. I have him below the other two only because it seems to me that an American League guy — especially on an American League team with 19 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays — will have a tougher time throwing the no-no. Of course, that might be wrong. All three no-hitters in 2007 were by American Leaguers (though Justin Verlander threw his against Milwaukee).

I kept that entire blurb because it speaks to the craziness of the game today and how gently pitchers are treated these days. That being said, Kazmir can do it. When that slider is on and his fastball is humming, he is so fun to watch.

4. Carlos Zambrano.

I’m surprised he’s not on Bill’s list, though I’m certain there’s a sound reason for it. Zambrano seems to me one of the rare guys in today’s game who — even though he has never actually thrown a no-hitter — is a legitimate threat any time he pitches*. He’s thrown a couple of eight-inning one hitters, two complete game two hitters, if he was pitching in San Diego or LA or somewhere like that I would bet on him being the No. 1 choice to get the next no-hitter.

My issue with the Big Z. is his walks. However, the man can throw 150 pitches so I would not think the walks prohibit him. Didn't Burnett walk like six during a no hitter? I would suspect his would go something like that.

5. Jake Peavy.

Another guy who doesn’t complete games. He deservedly ran away with the NL Cy Young Award last year even though he did not throw a shutout nor complete even one game. Last guy to win the NL Cy Young without a single complete game? Roger Clemens in 2004. But Peavy was a lot better than Clemens in 2004 — he became the 30th pitcher since 1900 to win the League Triple Crown — most wins, most strikeouts, best ERA. He was the first to do it without a complete game* — (only Johan Santana in 2006 has done it without throwing a shutout). *Another sign of the times.

Here is a sampling of those Triple Crown winners: Lefty Gomez, 1934: 26-5, 2.33 ERA, 25 CGs, 6 SHOs. Bob Feller, 1940: 27-11, 2.61 ERA, 31 CGs, 4 SHOs. Sandy Koufax, 1965: 26-8, 2.04 ERA, 27 CGs, 8 SHOs. Steve Carlton, 1972: 27-10, 1.97 ERA, 30 CGs, 8 SHOs. Dwight Gooden, 1985: 24-4, 1.53 ERA, 16 CGs, 8 SHOs. Roger Clemens, 1997: 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 9 CGs, 3 SHOs, x HGHs Pedro Martinez, 1999: 23-4, 2.07 ERA, 5 CGs, 1 SHO. Randy Johnson, 2002: 24-5, 2.32 ERA, 8 CGs, 4 SHOs. Jake Peavy, 2007: 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 0 CGs, 0 SHOs.

The caveat for him is the outfield defense. I would say more things have to go right for him than others on the list. One or two spectacular plays need to be made and with Kouzmanoff at third and the aging outfielders with Headly/Hairston in left, you would be hard pressed to convince me he can throw one without striking out twenty. That would especially be true at home with such an expansive outfield when those guys simply cannot go after balls and vacuum everything up.

6. Erik Bedard.

My favorite Erik Bedard story so far was hearing Brian Bannister talk about facing him in spring training. Banny — what a guy. He takes a lot of pride in his hitting, and he said he was facing Bedard and the guy was throwing serious gas. Banny says that what makes Bedard’s gas so much more effective than most is that he hides the ball really well so that when you’re swinging, it’s ON YOU before you even know what happened. Anyway, Banny’s telling the story and he says (I’m paraphrasing), “So Bedard throws me a pitch, and I’m right on it. I mean I’m right on it. And I hit a hard line drive — I’m right on it, this is the best I can do — and it goes foul over the first -base dugout. And then I’m like, ‘Uh, OK, I don’t think I’m hitting this guy.”

Awesome story. Awesome pick. That is especially true if he moves to SafeCo, but Ichiro might have to call off Ibanez a few times though.

7. Tim Lincecum.

He just seems sort of a modern day Jose Deleon — I think he’ll have no-hitters going into the sixth and seventh inning for as long as he can stay healthy.

Great arm and a great pick. I just hope it does not happen against the Mets.

8. Matt Cain.

I guess a 22-year old stud who consistently allows fewer than 8 hits per nine innings and has been good for one complete game each year he’s been in the big leagues should be on this list.

Man, the Giants sure can develop pitching. Now about those bats...

9. John Maine.

I don’t know why … I just think this is the guy who is going to break that Mets curse. He’s thrown a shutout each of the last two years, he keeps hits way down, he strikes out people. Here’s the second preseason call of 2008 — John Maine throws a no-hitter for the Mets.*

*Brilliant reader Jeff P. already points out the contradiction that if I think Maine will throw the first Mets no-hitter, he should be ranked ahead of Santana. It’s true. However, it’s a mind-heart thing. My mind says that Santana is the most likely guy in baseball to throw a no-hitter in 2008. But my heart says he’s another Mets great who won’t throw a no-hitter for the team (while young and up-and-comer John Maine will). The rankings are more based on mind. The opinions are more based on heart. I know this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, but there you go. It’s like Eddie told Tom Berenger. Words and music, man. Words and music.

How can you not agree with this one? We have seen him almost do it about two times already and simply dominates some games. When he is on and getting people to chase those high heaters, he motors through the lineup.

10. Cole Hamels.

I’m a huge no-hit fan of Fausto Carmona, King Felix, Jered Weaver, but for whatever reason I can already see the headline: “Cole Hamels Throws No-No.”

How can you not agree with this one? He looks people make stupid every night with that change-up. Overall, a great list.

However, I would like to inject some more homerism and remove his #2 off the list and slide in Oliver Perez somewhere between seventh and tenth. If you put Kazmir on there, Oliver needs to be as well. Their stuff is comparable when they are on and both sliders could arguably be the best from any lefties in the game so I am with Bill James on this one. The guy may walk ten one night, but he can rebound with nine k's and no walks the next time out. Believe the hype.

* * *

Jim Caple has a nice article on the Twins fantasy camp he attended.

It looks like Schilling is going to go down the non-surgical path. Of course this is what Pedro had ailing him and he too initially opted for the non-surgical path at first. That might get him through the 2nd half of '08, but he will need to go under the knife after that.

However, his doctor thinks he may never pitch again without surgery. Even if he could come out and pitch in 2008, would sitting out 2009 after surgery mean retirement is in his future after 2008? It would be hard to envision him sitting out 2009 and rehabbing all the way back in 2010. The only way I see Schilling returning to pitch again is if get surgery now and eyes the 2009 season.

Everything you wanted to know about Erik Bedard and more. He seems like a down to Earth guy and seems like he would do well Seattle given their lack of New York/Boston-like media coverage.

A little Colbert action. Not enough? How about some more Colbert action.

Stupid, stupid, stupid animals.

Boo hoo. The Braves are getting no respect. ESPN did a hot stove match-up in which they debated who was the better team in the NL East between two teams and neither was Atlanta. Of course, the Braves are the 2nd best team in the division. I mean, yes, the Phillies won the division, but they are have holes and many of them.

The Rockies may have finished second and made it to the World Series, but who is speaking of them in the same regard as the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Padres? Not many. You will forgive me if I think the NL East is in fact a two team race that does not include the Phillies. One thing I do have an issue with is this:

RIGHT FIELD — Also not close, but in the Braves' favor. Jeff Francoeur is far preferable to the Mets' Chavez/Church duo and the Phillies' Geoff Jenkins/So Taguchi/Jason Werth combination

Frenchy facts: In 2006, he had a .260/.293/.449 line. Yikes. His 2007 line was .293/.338/.444. The bad news is even though he improved in the plate discipline department, he was still pretty bad and simply covered it up better with a higher BA. It is also worth noting he had a BABIP of .337 in '05, .284 in '06, and .337 in '07. The MLB average is usually between .290 and .300. Of course the big time players end up sustaining a much higher BABIP, but we have no idea if that does include Frenchy. He had exactly the same about of XBHs in '07 and in '06, but ten fewer balls found their way over the way in '07. His OPS+ was 87 in '06 and 103 in '07. Overall he notched 22 Win Shares, after nabbing 16 in '06.

I guess the real question is, who is Frenchy? Is he Atlanta's David Wright as many over zealous fan dubbed him? Or is he another toolsy player that has trouble putting it all together?

Church facts: Churchy compiled 19 Win Shares in 18 less games in '07. In '06, he tallied 6 less Win Shares in 71 games compared to 162 for Frenchy. Over the last three seasons, he beat Frenchy's career best OBP and posted an OPS+ of 118, 131, and 114. He also posted a higher WARP1 in '07 for good measure. The big thing here is one guy will be 24 next year while the other would be 29, but why no love for Church? If I were making a team for the long term, I could not deny Frenchy's upside, but for 2008 and maybe even 2009, give me some Ryan Church. I am shocked people really think this guy is an afterthought.

Let this one marinate in your head for a second. It is great! The entire family is crooked.

"Roger came to me one day and told me that we had been asked to do a photo shoot for Sports Illustrated," Debbie Clemens recalls. "I had major anxiety! I was a 39-year-old mother of 4! Once I realized that this WAS going to be a reality, I decided I had to give it everything I had." "My mind was set," Debbie Clemens continued. "I am not a risk taker, but have since learned that with great risk, sometimes comes great reward. The responses from that experience have been wonderful and I feel it was a turning point in my life. It's nice to have a goal for yourself and to see it through. The goal kept me motivated and focused. Using common sense and my ability to balance my life, I achieved that goal."

Big risk. Taking some clothes off and smiling in spread that everyone forgot until now? I totally admire you for that. There was also a tasty one in the comments:

If it's true, maybe Kim Mattingly should've taken some as well, then she's still be hot.

Ziiiiing!! Now, that is not nice. True, but not nice.

Take a look at this link as well. The pictures are classic. Nothing like getting together with a few buddies and downing some Miller Lites and injected some steroids.

I have not seen this one before so it is new to me.

All eyes will be on Santana this spring.......wait....no...all eyes will be on Pedro this spring. Luckily there is enough media coverage both will get their fair share of attention. There is no question they are both important, but there is also no question for me about either of those two. They are both going to healthy and very good.

Steve Popper has lots of questions. He could have just asked me though. I have answers to all of them.

McNamee's lawyers sees the Feds getting involved in the Clemens case. Roger, Roger, Roger...maybe you could have come up with a half lie and say you did it once like everyone else. Now you are going to come out looking horrible if this goes awry. Or maybe he is taking the George Costanza stance on lying.

It's not a lie if you believe it.

Fernando Tatis gets an invite to Spring Training.

New York Edition: Aside from 56 at-bats for Baltimore in 2006, Fernando Tatis has not played in the majors since 2003. Nevertheless, the Mets have invited him to spring training and would love to have a righty bat to potentially serve the role Julio Franco once filled - pinch-hitter/caddy to Carlos Delgado.

The Yankees inked Robinson Cano and bought out his last years of arbitration and tacked on a few more.

He will receive $3 million this season, followed by salaries of $6 million, $9 million and $10 million. The Yankees will have a $14 million option for 2012 or can pay a $2 million buyout.

There is a $15 million option for 2013 with another $2 million buyout.

Seems like a great deal for each side. Cano will never go hungry again and the Yankees get some nice value out of stellar production.

I guess the fact that Sandy Alderson is their CEO means Bonds to the Padres would be rather unthinkable.

Spring Training this week? Swelliciousness.

Misguided and Uninformed

The other day I tossed out there that Johan Santana was the best left-hander of our generation. Of course, I was being a tad overzealous there as Ossy had pointed out to me. Without actually looking at the facts, I mistakenly rushed to judgment and insisted I was right despite not actually having any sort of evidence to support my outlandish claim. And yes, it was outlandish. We could debate what exactly is our 'generation', but I am for the most part speaking of 1990 and after. 1994 and after if you really need some type of event to use as a starting point.

Randy Johnson is a strange character in many ways. Looks, attitude, etc. However, one thing in particular is simply the age that he came into his own. Part of the reason I blindly chose Johan is because he started being effective at such a younger age, but who cares when Randy started dominating? In 1993 at 29, Randy ran off a string of seasons with an ERA+ of 136, 154, 192, 135, 196, 135, 186, 181, 188, 197, 110, and 177. His 1999 season featured 271.7 innings pitched while allowing 207 hits, striking out 364 batters, and laying a 2.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP down. For good measure he racked up twelve complete games. In fact, it could argued that Randy put up six seasons better than Johan's best season and another comparable to his best at age 40.

Since 2004, Johan has been a full time starter. If you take Randy's best four year period and stack them up side by side, they look pretty good on paper.

     Randy   Johan
G      140     134
CG      31       6
SHO     11       4
IN    1030   912.1
HR      98     103
ERA   2.48    2.89
K/9  12.38    9.70
K/BB  4.92    4.96
H/9   6.88    6.95
BB/9  2.52    1.95

Those those four years look comparable. However, Randy Johnson put up an ERA+ of 186, 181, 188, and 197 during that span against Johan's 182, 155, 161, and 130. Both are spectacular pitchers, but Randy gets the edge there. Randy has been so good for so long that Johan's accomplishments pale in comparison. Of course Johan has plenty of time to change our minds and pile up some numbers, but right here right now, Randy Johnson is the best left handed pitcher of our time and has been insanely good.

That being said, there have been two guys better than Randy Johnson and it is not all that close for me. While Randy's best season of ERA+ stands 37th on the all time list, Pedro checks in at 32, 27, 18, 9, and 2. Pedro's #2 season is really #1 of all-time as Tim Keefe, who occupies the #1 spot, did it in 1880 in slightly over 100 innings. In 2000 when Pedro dropped that incredible season that might be the best of all-time, he put up the 2nd best ERA+ with 291. He tossed out a 0.74 WHIP, 1.74 ERA, and tossed four shut outs in the AL East in a hitter's park. From 1997 to 2003, Pedro had arguably the best run of any pitcher of all-time and had a stretch of ERA+ of 291, 163, 243, 291, 189, 202, and 210.

A close second behind Pedro is Greg Maddux who put up two of the top five seasons of ERA+ in back to back seasons with 271 and 262 in 1994 and 1995. During those two seasons he posted ridiculous K/BB of 5.03 and 7.87. In fact in 1995, the entire league hit .197/.224/.258 against him. What is interesting about that is he was better at the plate than the rest of the league against him with a .222/.234/.254 line. I shit you not. From 1992 to 1998, Maddux had an ERA+ of 166, 171, 271, 262, 162, 189, and 197.

Those guys were pretty good outside of their peak seasons as well and are truly three of the best pitchers we have ever seen. While Johan is not really in the discussion when it comes to matching up with those guys at their peak, he still has time. Greg Maddux was 28 in 1994, Pedro was 28 in 2000, and we know how old Randy was when broke into pitching's elite. Johan could be in the right place at the right time to start his own historic run and put up some ridiculously gaudy numbers up in Queens. Hopefully he does break into the conversation of who is the best of our generation so I will be more prophetic than just misguided.

* * *

This is an oldie but a goodie. Go to Google and type 'find chuck norris' and then hit 'I'm Feeling Lucky'.

The real story on who was in and who was out in regards to the Johan Santana trade scenarios. This one actually makes sense as opposed to the other ridiculousness bandied about.

The Tigers bought out Curtis Granderson's arbitration years and tacked on a few more. Personally, I would have waited until after the 2008 season. His .203/.266/.368 line in 291 at-bats against lefties over the last three years is ugly. However, that looks sparkling compared to his .160/.225/.269 line last year against lefties.

I am not saying that would give me pause to do this contract, but I want to be damn sure his numbers against righties are legit. He really needs to be great against righties to accept an OPS+ of 52 against lefties for his career and an OPS+ of 11 in 2007. I mean, that has to be the worst out of any starter, right?

Mary Noble had a tidbit that is likely to rain on the El Duque to the bullpen parade.

I can't disagree with your thinking, though I can't embrace your solution. Livan wouldn't come cheap, and he might not come at all with the chance to pitch regularly hardly assured. I like the idea of El Duque in the 'pen, but when I brought it up to one of the Mets' people on Saturday night, the response was, "El Duque was our best pitcher last year." And he was.

It seems as though the rotation is set at this point despite what Omar says.

Chicks Dig Run Protection

For me, there is nothing better than a well pitched game. The casual fan might not enjoy a pitching duel, but many true fans of the game can appreciate the beauty of a well pitched game.

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

Just to give you an indication of how tremendous that is, only 22 qualified starters in the entire big leagues posted a 3.69 ERA or better and the Mets project to have their entire starting staff average ERA there. As for team ERA for starters, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, Boston, Angels, Giants, and Toronto rounded out the top eight with a 4.11, 4.19, 4.19, 4.21, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.24 respectively.

The Mets were 11th with a 4.40 and it should be noted, Tom Glavine helped pull down that number as he was on the wrong side of 4.40. Of course there will be injuries, but Mike Pelfrey is one of the better 6th options in the league so I feel pretty comfortable saying the Mets might be odds on favorites to lead the league in starter ERA with a full year of Pedro and Johan in the fold.

The scary part is the Mets were already sixth in the bigs for starter k/9. Tampa was first with 7.71, Boston was second with 7.01, Baltimore was third with 6.95, the Cubs were fourth with 6.92, the Angels were fifth with 6.87, and the Mets were sixth with 6.85. Minus Tom Glavine's 4.00 k/9 and add in Johan and Pedro's innings at an aggregate of 9.00 k/9 or more and you have something that makes a grown man giggle.

Also, the Pedro and Johan-less Met starters last year were second in the league in BAA with .256 second to only the Cubs .248. It is safe to say that will improve quite significantly as Johan's three year BAA is .217 and Pedro's is .216, which will obviously be up post surgery, but I do expect him to be pretty damn good.

This is why I think it is comical when people say "I'm not all too worried about Perez and Maine" or "I do not think their pitching is all that good". They were really pretty decent last year and are markedly better this year. Green is not a flattering color, but it seems to be a popular one these days when it comes to anything relating to the Mets. One thing is for sure, it is hard to get Met fans down these days.

* * *

Not only is Dayn Perry emotional, sensitive, shy, introverted, and angsty, but he is also sensible.

The upshot is that the Mets now boast the best starting pitcher in the division in Santana, the best position player in the division in David Wright (who should've been NL MVP last season), the best closer in the division in Billy Wagner, and the best GM in the division in Omar Minaya (Pat Gillick is deliriously overrated, and John Schuerholz is now the Braves president).

That's a fine start on a division title. Contingencies certainly remain. For instance, the Mets need Carlos Delgado to rebound to a degree (likely), they need Moises Alou to stay generally healthy (uncertain), and they need Ryan Church to provide an upgrade over Shawn Green in right (very likely).

Getting Santana without having to give up Fernando Martinez, Aaron Heilman or Mike Pelfrey makes the Mets that much more potent in the NL East, and a front-runner for the NL pennant

I consider myself pretty confident and I do not think I'm dumb. I also try and not be a homer, but I have to admit, I doubted myself at times in defending the Mets prospects in the Santana deal. I started to wonder if I was completely off base. Ultimately, I stood by my guns and it is nice to see at least one expert validate the fact that I am not crazy.

John, NY: Keith, In your listing for Fernando Martinez, you made this statement: "It's been fashionable this off-season for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown." I'm assuming this was before the Santana trade - but are you saying you like the Mets system? Who's left now?

Keith Law: (2:40 PM ET ) I was talking about how many writers said the Mets' "inferior" prospects would preclude them landing Santana, even to this day. Gomez and Guerra are not zeroes. I hate to be in a position to defend the Twins' end of the deal, but really, the criticism is way overboard. They didn't deal Santana for a bag of balls; they just didn't get what they probably should have gotten.

Muchas gracis Senor Law.

Also from the above link:

Ed (Charlotte, NC): Keith really enjoy your work. Was wondering why E. Kunz was left out of the Mets top 5 prospects?

Keith Law: (1:26 PM ET ) Sidearming reliever, could just be a specialist, bad athlete. He was a consideration at #5, since their system is rather depleted; Carp probably wasn't the best choice for that slot.

I guess I feel a little better that Carp should not have been the fifth best prospect, but it is still rather ugly down there.

Chad (New Hope, MN): I keep hearing Carlos Gomez has "raw" talent. So what is his ceiling? Potential all-star or is he just an average everyday player?

Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) Ceiling is a potential All-Star, leadoff guy with explosive speed, plays well above-average defense in CF.

Wilson (DC): Gomez ceiling = Juan Pierre. OH BOY.

Keith Law: (1:47 PM ET ) No, I said Gomez would be good.

And he did rank his 36th overall in terms of prospects so that is pretty good.

Alan (St. Petersburg): Is there anyone in your top 100 who you think could make a big leap this year, maybe someone you downgraded for now out of caution?

Keith Law: (2:23 PM ET ) Chorye Spoone. Josh Smoker. Tyler Robertson. Deolis Guerra. Chris Nelson. Fautino de los Santos. Moustakas. And anyone I downgraded due to injury - Garcia, Brackman, Lincoln.

I actually thought he was a bit pessimistic in regards to Guerra, but it is good to see him acknowledge that he is a breakout candidate.

Justin NJ: hey, you biased Fishmonger! The Mets ain't been in da newz at all lately. Gimme some Brant Rustich lovin'!

Keith Law: (2:29 PM ET ) Live arm, lot of minor injuries, not sure about him in pressure situations.

The arm is there, but his college numbers versus what people say about him is what confuses me the most. If he has three above average pitches, why did he struggle so much at UCLA?

Dan (Hell): How about a projection for the 2009 Top 10?

Keith Law: (2:43 PM ET ) Kershaw, Snider, Fernando Martinez, Jennings, McCutchen, Wieters, Wade Davis, Price, Vitters, Triunfel. Candidates to jump to #1 overall would include Martinez, Davis, Price, Wieters, Triunfel, Porcello, maybe Austin Jackson.

Of course, this is the real joy of the chat. Fernando, Fernando, Fernando...

10 Fernando Martinez OF New York Mets TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Binghamton) age: 19

It's been fashionable this off-season for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.

Sweet baby jebus. That is good stuff and exactly why Law was a lone soldier saying he would not trade Fernando straight up for Johan and his one year. If you are sure he is going to be star, much like Longoria is going to be, they are much more valuable than an ace. First off, there is so much risk in regards to arms and everyday players that are stars will generally add more wins than ace pitcher year in and year out.

Of course Johan is the best of the best so he pretty much beats most position players every year, but when you factor in Fernando's cost for that type of projection, it really makes him hard to move for anyone that does not come with many years of below market cream of the crop production and that is why the Reds would not move Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard either. Of course the Mariners are giving Jones away for Bedard if it goes through, but there are plenty of people to argue that this is not exactly the best deal for the Mariners who are incorrectly calculating they are one 'ace' type pitcher away from contending.

A little more 'I told you so'.

Even if that's true -- and Cabrera is no world-beater yet (even those who don't love Gomez say he's "a tick above'' Cabrera in terms of value) -- it's still hard to knock Smith for ignoring Hank Steinbrenner's quick deadline and pressing for more.

Precisely. Even the people that did not love Gomez agree he is more valuable than Cabrera. The people that love Gomez must have it as a landslide towards Gomez over the known (and mediocre) quantity Melky.

Wallace Matthews is a creepy douchebag who is a failure at being funny or objective. You get the feeling he thought he was writing a brilliant column when it is really just steaming pile of shit.

DG had another theory.

"Fucking idiot, isn’t he? You know he’s full of himself enough to think his possibly drunken rants actually influence anything!"

I had not considered any inebriation involved with his writing, but that would explain a lot.

By way of DG, I present to you cheeseburger in a can. Mmmmm... cozy yourself up on the couch for the Super Bowl with one of those bad boys and some bacon vodka and you have yourself a par-tay. Who needs friends?

More truth. Make sure you read the last two paragraphs.

Goldstein is not as high on Fernando as Law. I'm sure a healthy year of the true Fernando will change his mind, but for now, he likes Austin Jackson and Tabata marginally better.

Viola is way off.

"You're talking four guys with a big question mark by all of their names," Viola said. "Carlos Gomez, he has to be comparable to a Kirby Puckett and a Torii Hunter? Good luck with that."

Really? Gomez is going to have to be comparable to those guys? Gomez will have to and not....oh I don't know...Delmon Young perhaps? Gomez is under pressure to perform because of the trade, but not because he is going to be the centerpiece of this team. Maybe he will be, but there are plenty of other guys on the team to be 'Kirby' or 'Torri'.

Jon Heyman rounds up some voices from the other side of the trade.

The deal will get done, but it bothers me Santana is trying to get this year at market price with a signing bonus. As if $130 million+ was not enough over the next six years? So the Mets really will not get one year of Santana under market price and had to send $4.5 million or so in signing bonuses to the Twins as well. Anyone still confused why Santana was not worth as much as most of the media would like you to believe should be crystal clear now on his value.

More arms on the way?

Once the Santana deal is completed, the Mets may add more starting pitchers. They have not ruled out the possibility of signing the free-agent right-hander Kyle Lohse, who went 9-12 in 32 starts for Cincinnati and Philadelphia last season.

That move could push Orlando Hernandez to the bullpen, bolstering an aspect of the team that crumbled toward the end of last season.

Hernandez’s versatility would make him a valuable long reliever or, because of his success against right-handed hitters (they batted .167 off him last season), a late-inning specialist who could defuse a pressure-packed situation.

I'm torn on this one and I have not given it much. I did want The Duque in the bullpen, but I wanted someone else in the rotation.

My favorite article of the day goes to Joel Sherman.

JOHAN Santana has never thrown a no-hitter. Neither has any New York Met. Yet, I believe the moons are aligned for that to change.

Amen brother.

1. He is great. Actually, I don't think it has truly sunk in yet with even giddy Mets fans just how great. His 9121/3 innings over the past four years are 251/3 more than anyone in the majors. Yet even if you shrink the criteria to 500 innings, no pitcher has allowed fewer hits per nine innings than Santana's 6.95. And that is working in the AL.

The hardcore fans know, but there are plenty of people, like my father, who would have no idea who he is. So yes, legions of Met fans have no idea what they just got.

"He works quick, gets it and throws. He is athletic, so forget bunting on him. He is competitive, and then some days his slider, which is good, is great. On those days, you have no shot. He is unhittable."

Damaged Goods/Viva Johan!!!

"The Twins are going to know him better than anybody," an evaluator in the AL said Tuesday night. "It's not that they think he's hurt, but maybe they're seeing signs (of decline) in him, and figure it's better to make the move now."

A clear option would've been for the Twins to hang onto Santana and try to win in '08. "But there was a reason why they made the decision to move him now," said the evaluator. "They're smart people over there. It makes you think … "

Santana injured? That deserves one of these. Regardless, let us take a look at Santana and his incredibly soon-to-be exploding arm.

There are various tools we can use to try and predict a pitcher's future performance.

1) DiPS is pretty good and may it correlate more with next year's ERA than the true ERA.
2) GB/FB ratio is also useful.
3) K/9, K/BB ratio, and HR/9 rate are pretty widely accepted as well.

First, his DiPS ERA was 3.65 in 2007. That compares favorably with many other top pitchers and is not far off his regular ERA. Also, we know he had a bad year so it was understandable that his DiPS ERA was up from 3.05 the previous year. Of course this is still a negative trend, but nothing out of the ordinary in my eyes and no other peripheral stat jumped out in correlation with the jump in ERA. Besides, it was still pretty damn good and if he had a DiPS ERA of 4.50, I might have one tiny bead of sweat as it would have suggested he performed far worse than his numbers would have seemed to indicated.

Second, his GB/FB ratio over the last six seasons was .70, .58, .93, .91, 1.06, and .92. Basically, he has been right were he has been since 2004. Yes, more balls went over the fence, but this basically tells me not much changed in 2007 it was more freakish than anything.

Lastly, his K/9 was 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, and 9.66 since 2002. His K/BB was 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, and 4.52 since 2002. His HR/9 has been .58, .97, .95, .85. .92, and 1.35 since 2002.

The only thing that jumps out at us is the HR/9 in 2007, but we knew it would be high. His career average is .99 and he eclipsed that by 36%. However, his K/9 and his and K/BB were above his career average.

Now we'll just take a quick peak at 2007 a bit closer. In the first half he had a 7.07 H/9, 9.30 K/9, 2.23 K/BB, 1.26 HR/9, and a 0.215 BAA. In the second half he had a 8.07 H/9 (Beckett had a 8.48 H/9 all year and Sabathia had a 8.89 H/9 all year), 10.10 K/9, 2.02 K/BB, 1.47 HR/9, and a .236 BAA.

In September when he had that last string of horrific starts, he had a 7.84 H/9, 10.16 K/9, 3.19 K/BB, 1.16 HR/9, and a .229 BAA. So while he did tail off at the end, his peripheral numbers should give everyone some confidence that his 'stuff' was still good.

If there is anything out of all of the above to suggest decline or worrisome problem over homer happy anomaly, I am all ears. The guy was still ridiculously valuable last year and his peripherals really were rather consistent throughout the year and his 2007 was pretty much in line with 2004, 2005, and 2006, which did net him two Cy Young Awards. If you could show me a huge jump in GB/FB ratio in tandem with the high homer rate, I would say you had something resembling an argument. However, it just seems ten extra balls found their way over the wall, but luckily, I think Johan is good enough to adjust. Also, It never hurts to get some good old fashioned scouting in conjunction with numbers.

“He threw the ball over the plate and didn’t make pitches,” the evaluator said. “They were out of the race; maybe he was just trying to throw it over. He didn’t walk many guys and he got beat with some early-count fastballs. If they’d been in the race at all, maybe he’d have been a little more selective. But he was healthy. He was still throwing hard, still pitching deep into games.”

Instead of some crazy injury theories, let me for a second cook up some crazy scheme. Some players do not like getting traded mid-year. Carlos Delgado is a prime example and conveniently plays on the New York Metropolitans. Before he left for free agency, the Blue Jays wanted to trade him to a contender. You know what? He declined and exercised his no trade clause.

The Twins were in the know alright. They knew that Johan said trade me now or watch me walk for two draft picks and you can forget about signing me no matter how much you throw at me. The Twins leverage here was at an all time low with only one serious team involved and Johan's desire to leave ASAP. Have we all forgotten this?

These were Johan Santana's words Tuesday after the non-waiver trade deadline passed without another trade: "I'm not surprised. That's exactly how they are. That's why we're never going to go beyond where we've gone."

The Twins acquired two minor league prospects for Castillo, saved $2 million in payroll and did nothing to bolster this year's chances.

"It's not just about hope," Santana said. "In a realistic world, you have to really make it happen and go for it.

"You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it," Santana said.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner wasn't smiling.

"Why waste time when you're talking about something that's always going to be like that? It's never going to be beyond this point. It doesn't make any sense for me to be here, you know?"

Torii Hunter will be a free agent at season's end. Santana and Joe Nathan will be free agents after 2008. Asked what message Ryan's latest decisions had sent to that trio, Santana continued firing.

"I've been here for eight years, and I've seen a lot of those kind of things," he said. "I've seen a lot of those guys [like Castillo] come in and leave. [The decision makers] don't care. They always talk about caring about it; I don't think they care.

"Because if you're always talking about having young players — that's the philosophy the team has, and I respect all that — but it's been proven that it's not enough to go all the way to the World Series."

Explosive. My response to those who think the Twins knew about some injury or that Johan is in decline? Wrong. This is simply a guy who seemingly wanted to be on the Mets and in the National League and the everything worked out in his favor.

* * *

Keith Law is the only the guy who I really think did a good job covering this trade.

In the abstract, it's hard to accept dealing your marquee player and top trading asset without getting your partner's top young player in return, and that's what the Twins did. They did get back significant economic value in four young players, each of whom has under one year of big-league service and two of whom aren't even on the Mets' 40-man roster yet, so the Twins will have each of them under control for six full years of service. That return in exchange for just one year of Santana's services is reasonable. But premium players should fetch premium prices, because there's value to a club in having so much production coming from a single roster spot. And in this case, Minnesota GM Bill Smith did not get a premium prospect in return.

Of course you would like to get premium players back who are ready to be stars now like Hughes or Jones, but maybe they should have dealt him before the 2007 season. They did not and were in this position. This is a topsy turvy time we live in where youth is gaining value. Of course we can argue whether or not youth is gaining too much value, but they are indeed gaining value.

If people give up youth, they want youth and value back. Not one year and immense risk. If the Twins wanted the Mets to give up Fernando too, then the Mets would have needed another few years under market value to mitigate their risk.

Actually, I lied above. Joe Posnanski had probably the best piece of all on the trade. It really gives you some valuable insight and basically, no one is right or wrong. There are valid reasons to be on either side of the fence or straddling it.

Some Yankee fan called into WFAN yesterday and said Johan is not even the best pitcher in the league. Josh Beckett is. Right, even if I conceded to that madness, then he is the second best. What is the point?

I heart Time Marchman and his stoic looking picture.

As if that piece was not enough, he drops this one on us.

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

It is nice to have someone NOT try and pee on our picnic.

The glow won't fade for weeks.

I still think the Indians could retain CC as long as they do not add a no trade clause, but who knows. It is a lot of cash and Fausto may persuade them to roll the dice and try their luck without him.

Fun Santana facts of the day.

• In 2007, he struck out 62 lefties while allowing 39 hits. In fact, he struck out more righties than he allowed hits as well in his off year.
  
• The majority of big leaguers are righties. Over the last three years, Santana has held righties to a .213/.251/.358 line. Don't worry, I soiled my underwear as well.
  
• Johan Santana is not Barry Zito.
  
• Johan was selected by the Florida Marlins from Houston in the 1999 Rule 5 draft and then traded to the Minnesota Twins for minor leaguer Jared Camp. Camp never threw a pitch in the big leagues....Ooooops.

CC is down for extra drug testing.

There may be other teams jumping into the mix for Bedard.

The Mets picked up Ruddy Lugo, who is incidentally Benny's best friend. Shit, meet wall. Wall, meet shit. Hopefully something sticks.

Inflammatory? Perhaps. But nice to read. Also, a A+++ comment surfaced here.

Strawdoc Jan 30, 2008 8:20:07 PM Report Offensive Post
It is so funny -- the Daily News runs this whimsical story, complete with provocative headline, to stir up yanks fans. And sure enough, the usual nitwits like libertytwerp are pounding their keyboards in indignant frustration (compounded, in libertytoy's case, by his apparently unsuccessful effort earlier today to find a 13-year-old girl). What upsets them is that with this deal, the Mets are clearly the best in the city (remember, we can't look at the yanks' PEDs-tainted stats. to assess their roster). Not to mention best in the National League.

Interesting.

Pelfrey never a factor: It turns out there was no chance that Mike Pelfrey would be included in the package for Santana. The Twins were interested in Pelfrey as a pitcher, but not as an expense. The agreement that Pelfrey's agent, Scott Boras, negotiated with the Mets when they selected Pelfrey in the first round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft established the pitcher's salaries for four seasons.

Pelfrey is to earn at least $1 million this year, whether he's in the big leagues or not. And the Twins, always cost-conscious, don't want to pay anyone that kind of salary for Minor League work.

I cannot say I am unhappy about that at all.

When Mike Carp is in your top five, it is safe to assume you have the worst system in the big leagues.

New York Mets

1. Fernando Martinez, cf
2. Brant Rustich, rhp
3. Nathan Vineyard, lhp
4. Jon Niese, lhp
5. Mike Carp, 1b

As for the Twins, they do not look so bad.

Minnesota

1. Carlos Gomez, cf
2. Deolis Guerra, rhp
3. Tyler Robertson, lhp
4. Wilson Ramos, c
5. Philip Humber, rhp

Of course I think Mulvey is better than Humber, but it seems they did well if they added their #1 and #2 prospects in the deal. Sickels on the other hand is not as high on Gomez.

1. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+
2. Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade B+
3. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B
4. Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade B
5. Ben Revere, OF, Grade B
6. Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B
7. Glen Perkins, LHP, Grade B-
8. Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B-

Jim Callis is also very low on Carlos Gomez citing that Carlos Beltran is his ceiling, but he does not see that happening. The fact is, Gomez is just one of those guys who you love or hate. He has all the talent in the world, but obviously the odds are stacked against him.

However, he did make strides in the minors increasing his walk rate and slugging over the years. In '07, he for the most part lost a year of development time. Instead of playing everyday at AAA, he was in the bigs way before he should have been and then broke his hand. I think the kid will develop into something very good, but he still needs development time and last year was not a good year for him in many facets.

I still find it amusing how people feel the need to rain on the Met parade. However, when you try and say that Schneider is a downgrade from LoDuca you lose me. Construct a meaningful argument and I might listen. But baseless claims get you no where.

If this was 1902 and we were looking solely at batting average, maybe Schneider is a downgrade. But this is 2007 and Schneider is at worst a sideways move offensively with a pretty good chance to be an upgrade. Compound that with LoDuca's injury and this one is a no brainer.

.....and finally, I leave you with this.

"Santana's so good, though, he'll do so much for them," the GM said. "There's not much chance of buyer's regret."

Retribution!

'Tis a good day. When I first saw the link, I had to check the URL to make sure it was on the up and up. Then I had to go in through the USAToday.com homepage to double check because I am sure everyone remembers the fake Beltran link that went around before the Mets actually signed him. There are evil, evil, evil people out there that like to pray upon our vulnerability as Met fans.

The pundits said it would never happen. In fact, they are still speaking about the inferior package the Mets offered as they report this glorious news. I never wavered and fought the good fight in the name of sanity and objectivity and it turns out I was right...sort of. The Yankees and Red Sox basically pulled out, but I still thought this deal was just right all along.

The deal could still fall apart, but that seems extremely doubtful at this point. Johan gets to come to the DH-less National League to add onto his Hall of Fame legacy and joins the other best pitcher of our time. Let that one sink in. We have the two most dominant pitchers in the last decade. Good times. Weird things did happen yesterday with the Twins upping their offer to five years and $100 million according to Mike and the Mad Dog.

If Johan wanted to be there, he probably would have taken it. However, when faced with the option of staying in a highly competitive AL Central with a small market club or head to the Mets and instantly become the favorites in the NL East, he chose door #2 and forced their hand. Now I still think it is a three team race in the NL East, but Johan, Maine, Pedro, Ollie, Wagner, Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Alou are a formidable group that makes the Mets the favorite.

Let us not forget to throw into the pot that Mike Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez are still around. I will surely miss Carlos, Deolis, Kevin, and Phil, but I think that was a palatable package to give up. Though many ill informed fans would think that is not nearly enough, the fact is the Twins were not selling four years of Johan Santana.

While that is a hard concept for people to grasp, it really should not be. Also, please ignore any previous offer. Not only were those offers for Johan's one year under market value and exclusive rights to get bent over a table by Johan, but more was being thrown into the pot to keep him from the enemy. Take the enemy factor out and you get a clearer picture of the true market.

"A lot of teams just weren't willing to give up their best prospects, then have to try to sign this guy," one American League executive said. "Imagine if the Twins had been trying to move Santana and he was already under contract for three years at $15 million. They could have asked for the moon and gotten it."

Omar just plucked himself off of the hot seat and solidified Willie's presence in our lives for the foreseeable future which in itself cannot even get me down. Even Emad was won over by the trade. "Well, that's a pretty 'right' package. I'm satisfied." And there we have it. The Mets just landed the guy with the most wins since 2003 (82), the lowest ERA since 2003 (2.92), and the most strikeouts since 2003 (1,152). Fun fact, Johan in his off year had a higher WARP1 than Becket and was only .02 lower than Sabathia. Sweet Jebus.

For the Twins, I firmly believe they will get one All-Star caliber player between Gomez and Guerra. If they get one of those guys to that level, another to be dependable reliever, and another solid starter, things will be all good. They will be able to call this one a good trade. Of course, we will not be able to make a final determination for a few years, but keep your chin up Twins fans. Things look favorable.

Not wordy enough? Let's keep going then. While speaking about the deal, I would be remiss to not bring up how Theo brilliantly played this one. The Yankees put out the initial offer of Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, and whomever. The Red Sox and the Yankees are in a daily competition and Theo wanted to keep Johan out of Cashman's hands. So, what does he do? He puts together a package that was clearly better to up the stakes. When I say clearly better, I do not mean clearly better in my opinion. I mean it was matter of a fact better.

Of course, Bill Smith sat on the sidelines and both the Yankees and Red Sox backed off and he was left with the Mets offer which might have been the only offer from the way things sounded. Although, that might not be the worst thing for Smith because it made his decision a lot easier. The Mets package is undoubtedly risky, but man is it interesting. The sky is the limit for Guerra and Gomez and I will be forever indebted to them for enabling the Mets to land Johan Santana while keeping Fernando.

* * *

So, what did it cost to get Santana? Besides talent it certainly cost some money. Guerra cost $700,000 to sign, Humber cost $3,000,000 for his signing bonus, Mulvey cost $585,000 to sign, and Gomez cost $20,000 to sign.

That would be grand total of $4,305,000.

Talk about being negative.

From the Red Sox, the Twins could have had left-hander Jon Lester or outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, plus a near-ready infielder, Jed Lowrie, and right-hander Justin Masterson. From the Yankees, they could have had right-hander Phil Hughes — perhaps the single best player they were offered — plus center fielder Melky Cabrera, and more.

Instead, they will land Gomez, who might not hit well enough to become the next Carlos Beltran; Mulvey and Humber, whom most scouts project as back-of-the-rotation starters; and Guerra, who, for all his promise, has yet to pitch above Class A. The deal will become official once Santana passes his physical and agrees to a contract extension.

So, why does he mention all of the doomsday scenarios when speaking of the Met prospects while not mentioning the clear flaws with anyone else? Weird. You would think he had an agenda or something.

Since no one else will do it, I will.

John Lester: I like Lester a lot. He has guts and that was evident when he faced the Mets back in 2006. However, he does have a 4.68 big league ERA, a WHIP of 1.57, and a career ERA+ of 101. The most discouraging part? His minor league numbers are not all that much prettier. He has a 3.78 bb/9 and a 1.31 WHIP. His control issues seem to be more than just a phase and will probably hamper him for taking that next step. It is hard to be really successful as a starter with that much of a control problem.

Jacoby Ellsbury: He might not be able to hit enough to knock CoCo Crisp out of the starting lineup. His minor league ISOD is .076 and is ISOP is .112. Want more gloom and doom? At 24 he is not likely to appreciably stronger without the juice.

Comparatively, Gomez has a .061 ISOD and a .121 ISOP for his minor league career. Throw on top of that some serious raw power, the fact he is younger, and a winning smile and that is all very interesting....

Jed Lowrie: This is a tough one for me. I actually like Lowrie a lot and think he is going to be a solid player. He put up a .095 ISOD and a .157 ISOP in his minor league career. Not bad for a middle infielder. Wait? He might not stick up the middle? Oh...then check that. He has a shot to be marginally producing corner infielder with a sub par glove.

Justin Masterson: He might end up a reliever or back end rotation guy as well. Actually Mulvey is a better prospect and Humber is not far off if not even better. Maybe he can give us a call when he gets his ERA under 4.00 outside of one stint in the NYPL.

Melky Cabrera: In the bigs he has a .065 ISOD and a .113 ISOP. In the minors he put up a .053 ISOD and a .128 ISOP. He is also the 2nd worst center fielder according The Fielding Bible. Oh, did I mention he really does not steal that many bases either and at 5'11" he is not exactly projectable in terms of adding some pop?

Just an aside, can someone clue me into why no one in the media is pointing out he is an average (I'm being generous here) player with limited upside? Is it because he is young? Am I missing some secret tools that scream upside? It seems like the best thing about him is that we KNOW he is average in the bigs where as Gomez has not had a chance to average, great, good, or bad. I am missing the allure here when people allude to the idea the Twins 'missed out' on Melky. The best thing about him is that Hughes came with him.

Phil Hughes: Actually, I like Hughes a lot. I refuse to sink to their level and speak bad about him. The dude is squeaky clean. Of course, he is still more likely to not win 100 games than he is likely to win 100 games. Young pitching is more or less a crap shoot which is why you want a lot of it around. Which does bring me to this point. Hughes was the only player of worth in the rumored Yankee deal so Smith's eggs would have been in one basket. Hughes does not turn out to be a stud, and the Twins lose. It is that simple.

As for Gomez again, this is from people that scout the game of baseball:

Fastest Baserunner Carlos Gomez
Best Athlete Carlos Gomez
Best Defensive Outfielder Carlos Gomez
Best Outfield Arm Carlos Gomez

While it is fair to say his numbers are favorable if not better when factor in fielding and stolen when compared to Ellsbury and Cabrera's minor league numbers, it is also fair to say he has sizeable upside. It should be noted that Ellsbury is rather good athlete as well and has the ability to hit for a high batting, but he simply does not have the power projection or arm that Gomez has which is where they really diverge as prospects.

Sticks and stone...I know...I know. But it bothers me that people negatively skew things towards the Mets for no justifiable reason. They make it seem like everyone in the Red Sox and Yankee deals are preordained to be stars while the Mets are just scrubs with no future and are all downside. You would think someone would at least admit these guys are talented human beings at the very least. I guess it does not matter since Omar got his man.

The Blue Jays could be the next team to come over to the dark side.

This seems like a science fiction story to me.

This was late Monday night, about 12 hours before the Mets would pounce upon their most dramatic trade in recent history. Twins' general manager Bill Smith, in a panic to move Johan Santana, called the Yankees and admitted surrender: Phil Hughes was no longer a prerequisite, he said. Instead, the Twins asked for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a top prospect. Would the Yankees still be interested, Smith wondered?

The Yankees considered the idea, but only briefly and not seriously.

Kennedy stood in the Yankees way? Perplexing. A guy with average stuff who 'knows how to pitch' was all it was going to take? Smith is really not looking like a good GM here. He should be thankful for his own good that the Yankees balked at that deal because the Met package was eons better than Kennedy/Cabrera.

The Mets getting Santana brings parity? It doesn't make them the favorites?

"This certainly evens the balance within the division," said Glavine, who signed a free agent contract with Atlanta in November. I don't think this makes [the Mets] the class of the division. I think it puts them in a position where their rotation is much better and that was their biggest need.

"Within the division, I think you have three teams that can now not only win the division, but also the World Series. I think all three teams did a nice job of filling their biggest needs."

Thanks for the insight Tom.

The Quick and Dirty: Santana Thoughts and Rumblings

While I do think the Indians could afford to keep CC, any of this poppycock about the Twins being able to afford Johan is nuts. A long term contract to Johan could be very, very dangerous for them. They will receive a bump up in revenue from their new stadium, but they would be toeing the line.

Player Expense:

'97: $42m
'98: $29m
'99: $21m
'00: $27m
'01: $42m
'02: $53m
'03: $70m
'04: $69m
'05: $73m
'06: $76m

Profit:
'97: ($16m)
'98: ($7m)
'99: $02m
'00: $06
'01: $04m
'02: $00m
'03: ($7mm)
'04: $00m
'05: $07m
'06: $15m

Where exactly is there anything to suggest they could afford him without taking on too much risk? Their 4 year $20m per year offer is probably as far as they want to go when you factor in their need to pay up for other young guys like Slowey, Mauer, Liriano, Young, etc. down the line. Anything Smith says contrary to dealing him is just a bluff and as I sated before, Pohlad and his billions have nothing to do with this. Owners do not and should not dip into their own pockets and assuming they should is wrong.

The 2006 season marked their highest revenue ever with $131 million and their highest profit margin. Should any team really offer a contract worth more than their yearly revenue, which Santana has been rumored to be looking for? It should also be noted that 2006's profits were aided by a trip to the playoffs as well so it stands to reason they probably pocketed a little less in 2007 being they had virtually the same attendance. If something goes wrong with Johan, it could paralyze that team for a long time and that is why he will not be a Twin come opening day and the front office understands why they have to deal him if he does not accept their current offer. The question is at this point, who blinks first.

"The Mets are legitimately in this," an official from one team involved said. "It would be a mistake to minimize their chances." This official theorized the Twins might be willing to take a deal with the Mets if it is close to Boston's because that would get Santana out of the AL.

There was a report yesterday out of the Dominican Republic that the Mets had pulled Gomez from his Winter League team. But Met officials said it was their plan to limit Gomez's games, and that this was not the prelude to a trade. The Mets are known to have offered a package built around Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.

It seems Lester has not been pulled off of the table and I still like that deal the best for the Twins. They get talent and more importantly talent ready to play in the bigs from day one. That is not to say the Met deal is bad as it has more upside, but a lot more risk as well. If the Twins make a decision based on moving Santana out of the AL rather than what they think the best haul of talent is, they are utterly ridiculous. While it may be counterintuitive to give the best team in the league coming off a World Series win arguably the best pitcher the league, they have to take what is best for them regardless if he stays in the AL.

* * *

How are the two deals related? I do not see how they should be when you look at the fact Bedard is inked for another season. Regardless though, the Mets offer still looks favorable with the rumored Seattle packaged and Bedard should get a bit more in return, which is what is happening. If the Twins try and use this as leverage, Omar needs to stand pat.

If Angelos kills this deal, he will have set the Orioles back a bit. I think Jones is going to be a star and I think it is a solid deal for them.

This is as good of a time as any to post my yearly Peter Angelos picture. Most of you have heard his name, but have not placed the horror that is his face with the name.



Disturbing, I know. Everytime I see him I just think Grendel. Let us review what traits some believe Grendel to have.

Grendel

Vaguely human in shape, though much larger.
His disembodied head is so large that it takes four men to transport it.
When Grendel's torn arm is inspected, Heaney describes it as being covered in impenetrable scales and horny growths.
Every nail, claw-scale and spur, every spike
and welt on the hand of that heathen brute was like barbed steel.
Everybody said there was no honed iron hard enough to pierce him through, no time proofed blade that could cut his brutal blood caked claw
Yup. Sounds like Angelos.

I totally get why people think the Mets are dead in the NL East. Forget the fact the Phillies lost Aaron Rowand's career year of offensive output and their backend of the rotation is missing, they signed Pedro Feliz and are looking at Kris Benson. Game...set...match.

There is something comical about this.

Feeling 'Unwanted'?

The Prima Dona of the week goes to........Erik Bedard! Congratulations, you get a box of tampons and chance to tour the WE Network television studio!

"If they don't want me, [a trade] is the best thing to do," Bedard said in a phone interview with The Sun. "Obviously, they don't want to keep me because there are a lot more talks [about] trading me than signing me. What am I supposed to do? I just go with the flow. I'll keep it as it is, and go with it, day by day."

Two things:

1) Is he really that out of touch that he can not understand why they were looking to deal him? It should be nothing personal really.
2) Did he really want to stay with one of the two worst run franchises in the bigs?

Erik Bedard was a Cy Young candidate for the majority of the year and he needs some extra ego stroking to feel wanted? Cry me a river Bedard. The funniest part is that from what I remembered, they did talk long term.

"We wanted to talk about a multiyear deal and they suggested that they just do a one-year deal," MacPhail said. "That's the truth."

Pieper acknowledged that the two sides talked conceptually about a three-year contract that would have bought out one of Bedard's free-agent years. Bedard made it clear yesterday that he has no interest in pitching for a rebuilding team.

Ha. While Bedard was flowing like a river, MacPhail was trying to figure out how to improve a team that is probably the worst in the AL East. Bedard over the next three or four years was not going to change that, but a nicey nice package with Adam Jones in it is much better for this team long term. We just need more clarity at this point as to who the other players are and MLBTR.com says Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Tony Butler, and Kameron Mickolio is what he is hearing right now.

That is two top tier prospects in Tillman and Jones, and good prospect in Butler, a good big league reliever, and another prospect of mediocre status. I like the deal for both sides as the Mariners still retained some blue chip talent though I think the Orioles will end up as the winners unless Bedard is extended. Next, Roberts should pack his backs. Rebuilding is a good thing if you can manage to have some decent drafts, just ask the Cleveland Indians. The Orioles are now putting together a nice core of offensive players and have some nice arms in the stable.

* * *

Jenna Jameson is looking pretty bad these days. I want the old one back.

Tim Marcham has three questions for the Mets.

1. Are they going for it or not?

This isn't, in other words, a team like the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks or the 2005 Houston Astros, teams on the verge of implosion that had to win before their oldest, best players fell apart, and it shouldn't be managed that way. Minaya and Randolph, though, are under great pressure because of the collapse. To them, a win this year is much more important than a hypothetical win in the future. This Mets team isn't faced this year with their last chance to win; the men who run them, though, may be. This is a potentially toxic dynamic.

Beautiful...{sniff, sniff}. Some objectivity out of the media. Someone who realizes the Mets are in fact a very good team with a solid long term outlook.

2. How creative are they willing to get with the pitching staff?

When there were holes in the rotation, Randolph and Minaya have had a tendency to go with really terrible pitchers such as Brian Lawrence and Jose Lima or really unprepared ones such as Philip Humber. Obviously the hope this year is that Pelfrey and Humber, who now have at least a bit of experience in the majors, will give the Mets a chance to win when they're given the ball. This surely represents improvement on the likes of last year's Chan Ho Park experiment, but the team could do even better with a bit of flexibility.

Humber, Mulvey, and Pelfrey cannot be forgotten here. Even if one is traded, the Mets will still have decent back up options. Marchman also suggests a six man rotation, which I cannot get down with. It is always an interesting notion, but ultimately, it doesn't seem like a great idea. Sure, it keeps Pedro and The Duque (who still should not be in the rotation) fresher, but I would rather see them take a short, mid-year vacation instead.

3. How patient will the team and the fans be with Willie Randolph?

If the biggest questions surrounding the Mets are structural questions about how well they can handle the tension between youth and age, or how well they can best use a talented pitching staff with some large and obvious flaws, that's probably largely because Willie Randolph hasn't always handled them well. The obvious greatness of Reyes and Wright made them immediate fixtures in the Mets' lineups, but aside from them, Randolph hasn't done a good job of handling younger players. Many pitchers have thrived during his tenure, but many have also been put in positions where they could do nothing but fail.

Bingo! I'd like to say a big fuck you to everyone who questioned my continued crusade against Randolph for only exhibiting he is clueless. Making stars like Wright 'earn their chops' even through most of last year while Delgado was being an outmachine in front of him killing his RBI opportunities.

He sets up Humber to fail miserably in his only start and failed to give Milledge a steady role even though he was by far the best option thereby not letting him get into a groove and keeping his trade value down. Or his refusal to let Pelfrey or Humber get any meaningful innings out of the bullpen because he wanted to keep running Mota out there and so many other viable options over the rookies. But hey, there was no reason to worry. Everything was fine. Then there is Keppinger as well a few years ago.

The list certainly goes on, but if you ignore the young guys with talent, you will not win. You need to use your roster and sometimes that includes guys under 30 who can contribute. Personally, I do not think he can change. He is who is he is and holds something against young guys and that hurts this team who is still trying to develop their own prospects. I would not say I hate him because I do not know him, but he do not particularly like him.

I can say for sure he is not the right guy to lead this team over the next five seasons or so.

Overall, Tim proves why he is one of the best writers in New York. He can look at a team and analyze them fairly.

Dayn "I'm So Emo" Perry lays down the obvious.

1. Pedro Martinez, SP, Mets
The Mets have serious rotation issues, and they've done nothing to address them this winter. So the onus falls on Martinez, the future Hall of Famer. Martinez isn't the dominator of old, but he's still capable of loads of strikeouts and a sub-4.00 ERA. The innings load, however, is another matter. Last season, Martinez was sidelined until September after undergoing rotator-cuff surgery, and he's eclipsed 200 innings in a season only twice in the past seven years. With the injury-prone Orlando Hernandez and the volatile Oliver Perez in the rotation and no clear candidate for the fifth spot, the Mets badly need Martinez to rediscover his durability.

Pedro will not give 200 innings. However, does he need to? I think 180 would be just fine and we all have to remember that innings is not necessarily the thing we need to worry about. He can give the Mets six innings every five days because he knows how to pitch. Six or seven innings on 90 to 100 pitches for Pedro is not that much of a stretch. He can be very, very economical with his approach to batters and I do not fear much when it comes to him this year.

Good riddance Captain Tom. His ego and know it all-ness was no longer needed for this exuberant team.

More Stantana stuff.

"It is what it is," said an official from a club in the loop on the Santana talks. "Three GMs, all of a sudden, acted rationally at the same time. When's the last time that happened?"

Never maybe? The market determined the price and it was decided Smith was off his rocker. Yes, Johan had value, but not nearly as much as he thought. It cannot hurt to ask, right? Well this proves sometimes it does and he did not know when to come down.

Now, it might be him taking the best offer which many believe is far less than anything he could have gotten months ago. At this point, things appear to be coming to a head (which I know we have all thought before) and the Twins are asking for final packages.

The Twins would like a package from the Yankees that includes righthander Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera -- an option that some Twins players quietly prefer. Cabrera, with 16 assists last season, would join Michael Cuddyer (19) and Delmon Young (16) to give the Twins one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.

Whoa, I had no idea assists was the main metric used to determine fielding prowess. The truth is, Ryan Church is probably a better centerfielder than Melky and luckily the newspaper columnists have no hand in the trade. The Twins front office is probably well aware of Cabrera's short comings in center.

Of course, the rumors lately have been that Hughes and Lester are now off the table so I have no idea what is actually being offered these days. If that is true, then the Mets might actually pull off a coup and get Johan while keeping Fernando.

"My strong recommendation is we stick with our young pitching staff and keep it in-house," Cashman said. "That's my recommendation, and we've fought hard to take one step back to take two giant steps forward."

For 2008 that may present some bumps in the road, but it is hard to disagree with Brian there. He has three really good looking guys ready now with Brackman, Marquez, Horne, Sanchez, and Betances down the road. Why not try and develop some young guys? As for the Red Sox, they already have Buccholz, Daisuke, and Schilling. Do they really need to spend on Johan? I find it hard to believe that they want to, but they certainly do not want him on the Yankees. Maybe the Yankees are playing coy to keep the Red Sox out of it, but I think both are truly not all that interested in giving much up for him.

In the end, if the Twins insist on the Mets giving up three B+ type prospects with another fringe B+ prospect in Mulvey ontop of other prospects as well, then I would say Omar needs to tell Smith he is nuts. Bedard was arguably more valuable and the Mets current offer is not all that far off that one. Adam Jones is clearly the more valuable than anyone the Mets are offering outside of Fernando, but Gomez is still a highly respect prospect and Guerra is worth more than Tillman. The package the Twins really want would make sense if Johan had four years under market price attached, but that is not the case. Frankly, I think Smith is proving himself to be rookie GM.