2nd Half Swelliciousness

The Mets have now won nine straight games, which is their longest such streak since 2000 and I think ever. It is ALL Jerry Manuel and no one else.

Obviously I am kidding, but this team is in much better shape than they were with Willie.

One thing I love is the fact that Manuel is a man who is not afraid to let kids contribute. Why not? You have the players...why not let them help you regardless of how old they are?

Willie would never have batted Nick Evans in the two spot on Sunday. Now, that is not why they won, but it is encouraging that Jerry is comfortable with himself enough to throw the 'ole vote of confidence behind the young kid and he went out and had a day for himself. Willie had some sort of inferiority complex which made him belittle rookies and keep young players down until they grew a moustache and started playing second base.

Also, Jerry is not afraid to stack lefties. Willie was allergic to stacking lefties for fear at some point during the game the opposing manager might bring a lefty in and then be able to mow down his lefties in a big spot.

However, managing for a situation in the game that may never happen is poor form and Manuel has been concentrating on putting the best product on the field and in the best order regardless of some silly little propensity to live and manage by some playbook that makes sense only to one person.

Compounding mistakes? Not really Manuel's thing.

"We haven't really discussed that at length," Manuel said. "I think we're all a little worried about dealing with that. I think when the time comes, we'll make a decision and see how it fits and go forward from there. But right now, we're really playing well at that position. I mean, very well. That's going to be a tough one.

Omar paid the slappy hitting second basemen too much for too many years? So what? A good manager is not afraid to bench a guy with a four year contract in favor of a guy who is here on a one year contract and is supposed to be on the bench if the bench player is playing better. Easley is not a highly regarded fielder, but he made some sparkling plays Sunday night and certainly has not hurt the Mets defensively.

Managers may not be solely responsible for his team's performance, but he can certainly help contribute in meaningful ways and put his team in the best position to win. That is what managers are supposed to do and that is what Willie failed to do from day #1. If something is not working, fix it. Manuel seems to operate that way and is always looking to fix the team and get the best players in there.

Willie was a firm believer in staying the course and when this team was at their worst, he actually said that he does not need to say anything to his players and they know the deal and what is at stake. That is absolutely egregious and I believe Manuel will never assume his player's know the deal. He seems like the type of guy that will remind his team what exactly is going on in case they lose sight of things.

Raise your hand if you still care about how Willie was treated by the Mets....no one? Good. I'm glad we are all in sync.

* * *

Mike Pelfrey looks like an absolute stud. It was a frustrating ride at times getting here, but the guy had 19 starts heading into this season. Why it is assumed that any pitcher should be amazing from day #1 is beyond me.

Since June 1st, he has tossed 109, 112, 112, 113, 98, 98, 109, 113, and 119 pitches and has been a horse. His ERA+ of 112 is extremely impressive when you think about the fact he was almost dropped from the rotation with a sub 80 ERA+ not too long ago. The fact of life is that if you want to develop young talent, you need to let them take their lumps.

Evan Longoria, Edison Volquez, and David Wright do not come along often. Jose Reyes, Carlos Quentin, and Mike Pelfrey are more of the norm where there will be ups and downs, but confidence and patience will pay off handsomely and being at the stadium on Sunday while the fans are going absolutely nuts for Pelfrey was amazing. It felt like 2006 again when the fans were excited and there was a playoff atmosphere at Shea. The Mets may regress a bit and fall behind the Phillies again most likely, but they will catch up again if that happens.

Fuentes prefers Yankees!

"I've never played in Yankee Stadium," he told The Post. "I have no preference, but putting on the New York Yankees would be something special by itself."

No preference...NONE. Does this article have a point?

Ye of little faith... Aaron was simply too good and simply did not look all that off when he was getting beat like a rented mule. His K/9 is over 9 and his H/9 is under 9. Heilman is still pretty good and just had a terrible run.

Delgado thinks the break may be bad and when you are playing this good, it is hard to see anyone wanting to take a break.

"It's nice to get the break, but by the same token, you wonder if we continue to play are we going to play good?" Delgado said after the Mets' 7-0 victory over Colorado, which pushed their win streak to nine games. "It boils down to executing. We're playing good, but eventually you're not going to win, so we have to find a way to get back to where we are right now - executing, pitching well, catching the ball and coming up with some good at-bats."

F-Mart gets some praise.

"When you look at the field, there are guys that stand out, guys that you notice," an NL scout who was at yesterday's Futures Game said. "He's one of those guys. He has one of the best swings of anyone out there."

Mr. Billy Wagner is good.

I may be impartial here, but Sunday night should be in the top five.

Some athletes just don't get it. Instead of criticizing the Mets, he should be praising them for being right! Zito would have been a bust at $75 million.

I am excited to start heading down the road of obesity.

The team said today that the new Queens stadium, Citi Field, will include a Blue Smoke restaurant and a Shake Shack stand when it opens next spring.

Danny Meyer's Union Square Hospitality Group's other offerings will include a taqueria (tah-kuh-REE-uh) and Belgian-style fries with dipping sauces.

The award-winning restaurateur also will open the Sterling Club, which will provide premium seating and views of home plate; a bar and lounge, and a cafe serving comfort foods.

Sugar Pants to the rescue.

"I spoke to David Wright," NL manager Clint Hurdle said after the game. "I told David, 'You were the last pick. I went and got you. Have you ever pitched in an All-Star Game?'

"I said, 'You wanted to be in this thing. That's all I've read, all I've heard for the last three days. You won't believe how much you might be in it here real quick.'

"He said, 'Let's go.' He's good to go."

Adam Rubin was feeling quite generous when handing out his mid-season grades.

Callis, Law, and Hall of Famer Joe Morgan, oh my!


Joe (Troy, NY): What do you think of Wilmer Flores? I know he is only 16 but does BA think he is legit prospect or just a flash in the pan? Please give a diehard Mets fan something to look forward to.....

Jim Callis: He's very legit. He's one of the best prospects in the Mets system, though he may move to third base down the road.

Hmmmm...While I like any positive endorsement of Met prospects, saying he is one of the best prospects of a shitty system really tells us nothing. That being said, it is still nice to see.

Mark (Villanova): Any chance Flores moves to 2nd with Wright and Reyes already on one side of the infield?

Jim Callis: He might be better suited for third base, but yes, with Wright around, Flores could wind up at second base.

Going to second would certainly bolster his value.

Joe: (NYC): Is Jon Niese a decent prospect or is Omar just trying to build him up in the media for a trade?

Jim Callis: No, he's a solid prospect. Mid-rotation lefthander.

Sweet.

John(s. fla): How good is Fernando Martinez?

Keith Law: I still think he's a superstar. He's going to hit, hit for power, and play a good RF.

Sweet.

RJ (Pittsburgh): Pelfrey's last 9: 59.7ip, 41k, 19bb, 0(!)hr, 2.26era. Still not an ace but a) has he turned a corner? b) should we expect him to continue to improve? Thanks Keith.

Keith Law: Yes, yes.

The experts are still cautiously optimistic, but he is a beast.

Morgan answered like six questions and none added any value. Way to earn your keep Joe.

It's Monday and We're Mediocre!

For now at least....

I say that thinking maybe, just maybe the Mets are poised to break out. Jose has his OPS+ up to 117 and is looking like an MVP again. Shame on everyone who started to say crazy things like the Mets should have dished him off for Santana and not Gomez (102 OPS+ in the OF...a 117 OPS+ at short is miles more valuable), Mulvey (4.07 ERA and .279 BAA in Rochester), Humber (5.53 ERA and .300 BAA in Rochester), and Guerra (4.23 ERA). I like all those guys and still believe in them long term, but Jose Reyes is worth more than all of them in a trade.

The Mets are now tied with Atlanta who has been in a bit of a free fall and are 3.5 games in back of the Phillies. One game of .500 means the Mets are pretty close to under .500 which is a bad thing for a $140 million team. After going 1-7 from May 14th through May 26th, the Mets have went 5-1 to get over the hump of respectability and need to apply the pressure with San Fran, San Diego, Texas, Seattle, and Colorado in their not so distant future.

Sure I am stating the obvious, but the obvious is not always that obvious. Take Aaron Heilman for example. He is murdering righties to the tune of a .209/.291/.239 while getting murdered by lefties to the tune of a .391/.473/.783 line. And yet he faces way too many lefties. Why is this? I have no idea but he has to be a ROOGY or demoted to figure things out. Those are the two options. I still think he has some skill, but it is not showing itself right now. Enter the problem....Feliciano is playing more like a LOOGY and now the Mets have two ROOGYs.

That is entirely too many guys who have trouble with batters from the opposite side of the plate. Schoeneweis has been great, but still showing a bit of a LOOGY split. This bullpen has the ability to be tremendous, but Feliciano and Heilman need to figure out how they got guys from the opposite side of the plate out in 2007 or else they will be in trouble. Simply too many specialists and bullpen that is not deep enough. If Dirty can actually stick this time, that will be a big boon and I think Vargas should help out in the pen as well, but right now, Heilman should be a ROOGY with Smith and Feliciano picking up more of a role as a non-specialist until something works itself out.

* * *

Keith Law talks draft and it seems as though the Mets might have to rethink their choice of picks.

Brett Lawrie is heavily in Cincinnati's mix at No. 7, while Jason Castro has popped up at No. 8 to the White Sox or perhaps at No. 9 to Washington. If the Reds don't take a college pitcher, then both Houston (Aaron Crow?) and Texas (Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich) will likely go in that direction, unless a top player falls to Texas due to signability concerns.

Castro was who the Mets were targeting with one of their two first rounds picks and Law mused that Lawrie might be a fit for the Mets who are looking for more positional depth.

With so many bad managers out there, you would think Wally Backman would get a shot.

"All I need is an interview," Wally Backman said. "If they want the best person to take care of their players, I know I'm the right guy. I'll earn my spot."

Backman wasn't talking about Willie Randolph's job. He was talking about any job in the New York Mets organization or any job in affiliated baseball. Because each major league team has about seven minor league teams, that's about 200 managerial jobs. Backman, a three-time manager of the year award winner, is not good enough for one of those?

What is the harm in giving him a spot in the farm to see how he does?

Mark Prior = D - O - N - E

Jay Bruce? Pretty good. And really, this really shows you a thing or two about drafting. The Mets were down to Pelfrey and Bruce in the 2005 draft and they went with Pelfrey. Not that I could argue all that much at the time because Pelfrey looked special, but their age and perceived 'closeness' to the bigs probably factored in.

Jay Bruce owns a cool 331 OPS+ (albeit in six games) at 21 years old and looks like a super star and Mike Pelfrey owns an 81 ERA+ at 24 (soon to be 25) and is still trying to find his way. Who do you think would help more this season? Draft the top talent on the board and operate in no other fashion. The rest will work itself out and they really need to take note of this for the upcoming draft.

Kunz is in AA with a 3.91 ERA. I would have preferred a high school guy with huge upside than a close to the bigs reliever. Enough with the draft disasters of the past few years and loosen the purse strings and get some fucking talent.

Pedro is more of a character to me these days than a big part of this team's success. It is nice to have him around an all, but I am not expecting much. That is not to say he can not and will not add much, but I think people should temper their expectations on what type of impact he will have on this team. I think he adds to the clubhouse in a big way, but I find it hard to pin the happiness of the team on one guy.

I used to think otherwise, but I have changed my mind. He might help out the bullpen by pushing Vargas out there, but that will remain to be seen as a big help until Vargas starts producing out there.

Pelfrey has been bad, but not bad enough to jettison him back to the minors. How bad would any one of us rip another organization for taking a big league retread like Vargas, who has done well, over a guy who might be a big part of the team's future?

I think Pelfrey needs to stay. Vargas has an ERA+ of 90 vs. Pelfrey's ERA+ of 81. Vargas is 30 going on 31 and Pelfrey is 24 going on 25. Unless Pelfrey blows up, he needs to stay in the rotation and the Mets have to think about what they really want from him because right now the difference is minimal. If they are done with him and think he offers nothing, then move on. If they still think he can offer something, as I do, he 100% needs to stay.

Ryan Church is still playing some insanely good ball. He was concussed and just came back so I get batting him sixth, but he needs to start hitting in the top third of the order. Bat him 2nd or 3rd and adjust accordingly. I would not mind getting Church more RBI opportunities and more protection.

Enter in the problem....Castillo now has an OPS+ of 98 and has become league average. But it is the worst league average you can be with his nine XBHs. Sure he steals a few bases, but with the exception of his recent power surge, does not offer much thump. Give me some thump through the top of order and I'll show you a team that can wear out the opposing starting pitchers quickly.

Tatis has been playing well and the Mets should ride him like a rented mule.

At least Aaron has a good support system... Just so crazy how one of the top relievers in the bigs can go to crap. I still believe he can turn it around, but now you have to wonder if it is more mental than anything else.

BP has some valuable insight into Johan.

When Santana was supposedly heading to the Red Sox or Yankees, there were whispers that his problems with the long ball would be exacerbated there, due to their parks' respective leanings towards aiding offense. When he was eventually dealt to the Mets, these whispers were silenced, thanks to the offense-dampening Shea Stadium. However, what we have seen from Santana in 2008 belies the nature of the stadium, as his HR/9 has climbed from 1.4 to 1.5 per nine. Granted, he's gone from giving up 30 homers per 200 innings to 32 over the same time frame, but the thing that has Mets fans worried is that he was supposed improve, at least superficially, thanks to a league switch and move to a pitcher-friendly haven.

This has not happened for a few reasons. First, Santana has lost additional velocity. He's dipped another half-a-mile per hour on his fastball, which had already dropped from 93.1 to 91.7 mph. He rarely used his cutter in the past, but it's been cut out of the equation entirely at this point. The past two seasons have shown Santana using his fastball more so than in the past, despite its status as an inferior pitch relative to what he was capable of before. It's a bit much to say Santana's lost it—he's still one of the top pitchers in the NL thanks to low walk totals and a still-excellent 7.9 K/9—but this is not the Santana the Mets thought they were trading for, the one they signed to pitch for them through 2013. Though it has not hurt them too much in 2008—the Mets have other problems to focus on outside of Santana's rising homer totals—it's something that's going to become bothersome and problematic in the future if their expensive ace can't figure out a way to pitch his way out of this recent trend.

It is hard to say he has been a complete disappointment, but his drop in velocity and the fact he is not as dominating as expected is worrisome. Pedro was more dominating in his first year as a Met at four years older. While Johan has basically been in line with his 2007 performance, I think we all expected more.

Tough Decisions on Tap

With The Duque looking worse by the day, the Mets have some serious decisions to make. They could run into the season with what they have and let Pelfrey have the fifth spot and they can hope The Duque will provide depth at a later date. Or, they can try and nip this thing in the ass right away and tell Pelfrey his time to shine will have to wait until someone gets hurt.

The buzz going around that Lohse can be nabbed for someone between $4 million and $10 million dollars for a one year contract. Since 2002, he posted an ERA+ of 105, 98, 89, 106, 78, and 100. Obviously one year is way out of the line and the others are very 2007 Tom Glavine-esquely average. He went from being a guy who was looking for a ridiculous contract that was way out of line with what it should have been to a guy who is a veritable bargain. Scott Boras overplayed his hand and a guy who should have easily had a job if they were reasonable from the start is now not doing much of anything.

              Glavine vs. Lohse in '07
          ERA  K/9 k/bb Batting Against Inn ERA+
Glavine  4.45 4.00 1.39 .281/.338/.438 200.1  96
Lohse    4.63 5.70 2.14 .279/.339/.447 192.2 100

I am fully aware that Glavine was a far better pitcher in prior to 2007 and I am kind of cherry picking numbers here, but you get what I'm saying. One guy was good enough for a $8 million dollar one year contract and a first round draft pick and the other guy is getting the Jose Canseco/Sammy Sosa/Barry Bonds treatment. If I were him, I would fire Boras right away and maybe he would get some work. Lohse was grossly mishandled and now he is sitting home instead of trying to gain some consistency in his career.

Furthermore, at 29, there is surely room for growth. He also posts decent k/bb ratios and strikes out enough people to satisfy me. I am torn for sure because I want the Duque in the bullpen and Mike Pelfrey in the rotation. However, the only problem with that is there is no depth that does not really compromise the bullpen if The Duque is pitching effectively from there and I think he will. With Lohse in the mix, Pelfrey is the #6 guy and The Duque is the emergency #7 guy with Vargas, Sosa, etc. as the shit hitting the fan group.

If anything, this current rash of injuries should make the Mets front office seriously consider bringing in too many pitchers to the fold. If someone goes down, the Mets will be in trouble. Who can they dish off to get anyone who is worth anything? Sure they can take a look at the scrapheap, but there are certainly better options.

If anything, the extra depth gives the Mets at least something to deal at the break if they needed to upgrade their team in other areas. Lohse could be dished off with no commitment following him and Pelfrey could take over mid year so they can monitor his usage over the course of the first half. At $40 million over four years, not taking Lohse is a no brainer. At $5 to $8 million over one season, it is a no brainer to go after him. With one more season like 2007, he also stands a pretty good chance of giving whomever picks him up a sandwich pick.

The Mets are primed for some pretty great things this season. To see them evaporate because of depth would truly be shame. When it was cost prohibitive it was one thing. However, Lohse is set to be a bargain in baseball terms and bargains make you rethink your original plans.

* * *

Mike Pelfrey continues to do the right things.

Mike Pelfrey allowed two hits, including an infield hit, and retired six batters on groundouts while pitching three scoreless innings in his second start of the spring.

A strikeout would not kill the kid, but the six groundballs is very nice.

Ruben might be more injured than than anyone previously thought. Not good for Gotay.

John Donovan is drinking the Pedro Martinez Kool-Aid and why not? Again, Pedro is not the first guy to get surgery. If he did not have a nice five game stint at the end of '07, I would be leery. But he came back before anyone thought he did and did much better as well.

Now, he is back in a Mets uniform and looking sharp. I have high expectations for him this season. Yes, I doubt he will toss 200 innings, but that is fine. 180 innings is more in line with what I'm expecting. We all have to remember he has the ability to be very economical with his pitches and get through 6+ innings with 90 pitches.

I think Wallace Matthews is trying to pull a fast one by switching his name around. Thanks for the shitty article.

Cory Patterson is now a Red. The man's line in the bigs is .258/.298/.414. He looked like a star in the making, but that never happened. Dusty Baker had been calling for him and now he has him, which means Jay Bruce is likely out. The fact is, if this team truly thinks they have a shot at the NL Central or the Wildcard, Bruce should be in.

If they truly do not believe that, then this move is just fine. For me, I think Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Votto are enough wildcards that give me pause before I say this team has no chance. The fact is, there is upside there. Arroyo, Harang, Bailey, and Cueto could potentially be a nice front four with Fogg and Affeldt still in the mix. Their bullpen could be greatly improved as well if Volquez and Affeldt are in there as well.

Barry Lamar

Rob Neyer wrote about Barry yesterday as did Joel Sheehan.

Last year, Bonds batted .276/.480/.565. Had he qualified—he was 25 plate appearances short—he would have the led the NL in OBP by a wide margin and finished in the top ten in slugging. In fact, using the rule that you can add an 0-for-25 to his stats, he actually did lead the NL in OBP. That’s called dominating the category.

Of course, a chunk of Bonds’ OBP comes from the intentional walks he receives: 43 last season. You can argue that this disproportionately inflates his OBP, a function less of Bonds’ abilities and more of Brian Sabean’s inability to find hitters better than Ray Durham and Bengie Molina to hit behind his Hall of Famer. So lop 35 intentional walks off of Bonds’ total, and give him the average performance in his other at-bats in those 35 times up. That makes him a .276/.439/.565 hitter, assuming he drew no walks in that time and saw the same distribution of lefties and righties, both ungenerous assumptions. He’d pick up a couple of homers, and almost certainly a lot of RBI, both of which would inflate his value to the people who seem to think “66 RBI” is an indication of value.

Sports is not exactly a place that truly values ethics. You cheated? Who cares if you can help the team win. There are plenty of other steroid users in the league and sure Barry comes with a bit more of a media circus, but that would mean he should be kept out of New York and Boston.

Of course Rob Neyer thinks it is a matter of people not wanting to pay all that handsomely for the privilege to have a crazy distraction and believes if he came with a cheap price tag he would find a home. His 170 OPS+ tells me he can pretty much add a shit ton of value to a team on the cusp. Say the Seattle Mariners or someone along those lines.

I cannot see baseball blackballing him because he has not done anything different than many, many, many other players who had no problems finding contracts or roster spots. This entire situation is perplexing to say the least and the longer he stays out there the more bizarre it is. It is not as if he adds marginal production or is looking for a long term deal that I know of. I could see why people would stay away from him in that case, but he still can do things that very few players can do.

He has cranky knees and cannot run all that fast, but there are far worse fielders out there and far slower runners. Any team that has him might have a 24+1 situation. They might not. I say who cares. They will get an extremely productive ballplayer that can maybe push a team into the playoffs.

* * *

It looks like Sandy Koufax was imparting some knowledge on some Met pitchers.

It turns out it wasn't just Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner meeting with Sandy Koufax on Saturday morning. The Mets also had Jon Niese, the top left-handed pitching prospect in the organization, get together with Koufax.

I always like to read and hear these things, but I have no idea if any of that actually helps. I mean, that's what pitching coaches are for, right? In the end I guess another perspective does not hurt and especially the perspective of a guy like Koufax to other lefties.

El Duque is what he is. He is not dependable and the Mets also need to understand that he should not be cemented into the rotation. If Pelfrey rises to the occasion and pitches well, he has to get a look. I would rather Pelfrey get a large body of work in the bigs than just have him step in for injured guys. If The Duque goes down for the third year in a row at the end of the season, it could be detrimental yet again.

Nothing wrong with a little optimism in regards to John Maine. If he starts off the year right, the Mets should come forward with a long term deal around the All-Star break. He is going to get very expensive at the rate he is going. You think the Orioles would like to call take backs on that deal?

You always hear about players with good character and the Twins seemingly have picked up a handful of guys from the Mets that have great character. They have a great take on their situation and they have a great work ethic. Hopefully they impress the Twins with their talent and prove to the baseball universe they were a good pick up.

I have no idea if there actually was a problem with Willie and Jose, but Randolph going to his home turf would certainly smooth things over a bit. It is never a bad idea to make your players feel like they are actually part of a family and it certainly goes a long way to making the mental aspect of the game easier. The more comfortable you are the more relaxed you are. The more relaxed you are, the more you can concentrate on just playing the game.

I want a nice ten spot put up on Glavine when the Mets face him.

John Heyman has an article on Willie.

Willie Randolph possesses the qualities and credentials a manager in New York most needs: he's battle-tested, he's a winner, he's smart, he communicates well, and if you get to know him, he has a great sense of humor, which is a necessity at a time like this.

A winner? He was on winning teams, but I don't think that has any thing to do with him being able to win here. As for being smart in the baseball sense, that remains to be seen.

Mets people have spent a lot of the winter discussing and dissecting ways to improve. But if they think Randolph is going to become a different person, that's unlikely; after all, he rose from his roots being the way he is.

That would be reason enough for me to get rid of him. He actually needs to change a lot. Let us hope he is actually capable of change.

So pretty....eyes tearing......until I remember that they Mets are trying to screw me out of my partial season ticket package.

Pitches were throw by Padilla and Sanchez and their arms remained attached to their bodies. Good stuff.

The Mets are not letting Jose be Jose. I would not make a big deal out of every hard hit ball to the fence. It seems quite silly.

Things are looking bleak for Joe Smith in the bullpen. He posted a 123 ERA+ in 2007 and thought he did have a rough second half, it looked like he was out of gas. He also had a .516 BABIP which is just silly and something that won't continue. He is a pretty good guy to have stashed in the bullpen and things are looking really, really, really deep in at least one area of this Met ball club.

Feeling Optimistic

The Johan high is still going. My endorphins are endorphing deep inside my cerebellum and Mike Pelfrey is the benefactor today. Have faith in Pelfrey. Jim Callis said that Pelfrey 'isn't anything special' the other day and I have to disagree. The dude has 260 or so pro innings and roundabouts 60 of those were in the bigs and did him little good because he was not as working on anything as much as trying to not get hit and pitching around batters. The man needed to work on non-existent off-speed/breaking stuff and has not had a chance to really do it.

I always mention that you have look at his at-bat against Lance Berkman last year and his game against the Braves. He showed promise. Take a look at his highlights from the aforementioned Braves game. You'll see nice fade on his change, a controlling fastball with late movement that looks like it explodes in the zone, and a nice slider which does not look incredibly different from his off-speed, but cuts back in the opposite direction giving it a similar look.

The guy is basically just learned off speed and breaking pitches after throwing 70%+ of fastballs all through college. It is not easy to learn pitches, but he showed improvement and does need more work. Also, he needs more confidence as attacking hitters has been his #1 problem for me. A close second would be him missing bats, but that is highly correlated with refining his pitches and attacking hitters, which both got better at the end of the year.

Statically, I do not have much to support my optimism. However, when he returned to the rotation back in September when I thought he looked much better despite disappointing results, he raised his k/9 from 4.94 pre-Sept. to 6.95 post-Sept. Add that to his career 1.78 G/FB ratio and you have a guy who is really going to be tough to hit.

Year  W L  G    IP  H  H/9   R HR BB BB/9 K's K/9 K/BB  ERA
2003 10 2 17   105 80  6.9  29  9 15  1.3  98 8.5 6.53 2.49
2004 11 2 16   115 86  6.7  28  2 24  1.9 125 9.8 5.21 2.18
2005 12 2 18 131.2 88  6.0  33  3 28  1.9 135 9.2 4.82 1.91

I am one of the few that still think he could be a front end pitcher. Back in college, Pelfrey exhibited good control for anyone, much less a power pitcher, which is why I am optimistic he can sort that problem out. Also, he is essentially the same pitcher he was out of college. He had an electric arm and the key to him has always been how his second and third pitches develop.

That has not changed and the reason people soured on him is because not enough of a stride was made, but I think he did make some strides. If he can get another plus pitch and get the other one to an average pitch, which I think he do, he can be a legit ace of a pitching staff on the big stage and his control should settle down as he gets more confident. I think we all need not rush to judgment on him and simply give him more time. It has been extremely unfair as to how little time everyone gave him to refine some difficult things.

* * *

I posted this a few Saturdays ago. However, since people do not read weekend posts, I will repost this again.

"Omar (Shea Stadium): How healthy is Pedro Martinez, and how productive will he be this year?

Will Carroll: C'mon ... use your name, people.

Pedro is doing well. I recently heard that he's starting his normal throwing program at home and feels much like he did at the end of last year. I'd expect similar results, which were far better than I actually expected."

That is always a good thing to hear.

George Vecsey inks a terrible article.

I would strongly advise giddy Mets fans to envision the Marlins and the Nationals whacking them around in the final two weeks of last season. That should neutralize the euphoria, assuming Minaya and the family Wilpon sign the Twins' star lefty to a six-year contract.

Essentially, the Mets are front-ending their pitching staff - Santana for the departed Tom Glavine. That upgrade does not necessarily make them a better - or more mature - team for all 162 games this season.

Huh? So we shouldn't be happy that our favorite team landed the best left-handed pitcher of our time? Weird. I would have thought we should be happy. I will take note of this interesting development and quell my happiness.

Even if Santana stays healthy, he is 28, and pitchers can fall apart in a heartbeat. For that matter, he did not have such a wonderful September himself. Besides, he can start only once every five games, or somewhat more than 30 starts a season. Let's say he wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.

So many interesting and thought provoking items in here. Well, he could get injured, but he is in good shape and is as good of a bet as any to stay healthy. ERA-wise he had a bad September, but for the most part, he was Johan Santana. Striking people out, holding opponents to a low BAA, and throwing hard. But hey, let's forget this guy was the best pitcher in the league since 2003 and focus on seven games.

As for this other 'regular' you speak of, it would have been league average innings at best. I would think the Cy Young-esque innings will do much more for this team and they psyche.

Little has changed since last September. Paul Lo Duca is being replaced by Brian Schneider at catcher, maybe an upgrade in defense and comportment but a downgrade in hitting, and they now have Ryan Church in right field, not necessarily a big deal.

Stunning. LoDuca's bat is a loss? That is a strange suggestion that I have not been able to verify statistically. How about this. Anyone who thinks LoDuca's bat is a loss, please send me a compelling argument because I have yet to see one. Besides, the man would be batting 8th this season. Even if I were to placate anyone and say that LoDuca is better, who cares?

Nah. Church is not a big deal. Solid defense. Sixty extra base hits. Those things happen all the time. No one needs such things on their team.

Again, this is just another crappy article trying to bring the Mets down for some bizarre reason. I wonder if the Yankees are on notice as well? Why is there no article on why the Yankee fans shouldn't be excited about Mussina and two rookies in the rotation?

To review, Klapisch said the Mets basically had no chance before the Santana trade. Now they NL East is theirs? Weird. I love Johan as much as the next person, but one person cannot make a team that was a non-factor into the favorites. Maybe a team that already had a pretty good chance into favorites, but he was quite adamant the Mets were toast previously. Is it really too much to ask for some consistency?

It never ceases to amaze me how stingy these players can seem at times. Johan was close to walking away over $5 million as if the $145 million or so guaranteed was not enough?

The Johan Santana story.

There are times GMs spin things a bit. Twins fan think Smith is trying to spin the deal from his perspective. Cashman is spinning the Yankees lack of interest from his perspective. But Omar is laying down some truth.

"Coming into the winter, we really looked for a No.1 starter and we have accomplished that objective ... and this really almost exceeds those expectations," GM Omar Minaya said on a conference call. "It doesn't get better than Johan Santana."

Johan's deal certainly will affect the CC negotiations, but there is one major caveat. CC might want to actually stay. If he does, they could probably come to a dollar figure that would appease both sides.

If he is looking for the biggest payday and something that rivals Johan's, he is probably gone. However, it would not surprise me if he hung around for another five years with a mutual option for a sixth.

The Mariners and the Orioles keep on keepin' on. This deal looks like it going to go through and what a winter. How many times have three front end guys still in their 20's been dealt? Nuts.

I am not a huge football fan, but that was a spectacular game. Really amazing stuff and the commercial of the night for me was this one.

The New Top Ten

1) Carlos Gomez
Gomez jumps to the top of the list with his admirable play on the big league level. The numbers will not tell the entire story of his time with the Mets as you had to see him play. His defense was great, his arm was filthy, his speed is Reyes-esque, and his bat looked lively. He seems to swing for the fences at all times, but he looks like the real deal. He also showed that he needs more work and with his lost time this year he needs more time in the minors to start '08. However, there is no reason to think he will not be ready for the bigs in late '08 or be there in case Alou goes down (the Mets will pick up Alou's option).

2) Fernando Martinez
It is still a lot of projection and upside with him and though some are disappointed in Fernando so far, he is doing impressive things at his age. In his first year in pro ball he did a lot of things right and followed that up with a great showing in the Arizona Fall League. He started off hitting well in AA, though with little power, and went down with another freakish injury. His biggest problem is all the time he has sat out with annoying injuries hampering his much needed development time. While the Mets wanted him ready for 2009, it would be a more conservative estimate and probably beneficial to target him for a spot in the bigs in 2010.

3) Phil Humber
Phil has done well for his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He is on the leaderboard in plenty of categories in the PCL and has kept his walks down. A 3.25 K/BB ratio and a 1.13 WHIP is very encouraging and a power pitcher with a 12-6 curveball would provide a nice change of pace in the Mets rotation. Of course there are no spots for him this year, but he should have an opportunity to fight for a rotation spot in 2008.

4) Deolis Guerra
Like Fernando, it is a lot of projection with him. He has done some really impressive things at his age in pro ball and has been reported to pick up some velocity on his fastball this year. He already has the makings for a plus change and if he really did pick up some velocity on his fastball, he has the ingredients to be a front line starter. He just needs to get his curveball to be a usable pitch to keep hitters honest. Deolis is pitching in St. Lucie at this point and with Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey ahead of him, there is no reason to rush him. At this pace he should be ready for big league action in 2010.

5) Mike Pelfrey
I've spoke about him a lot so here so it will not kill anyone to read some more. Whether it is mental or mechanical is anyone's guess, but he is struggling. His secondary stuff is horrible despite him breaking out some really impressive changes and sliders occasionally and his command is not pretty. He seems to nibble too much and runs up high pitch counts instead of attacking hitters. He continually gets himself behind hitters and therefore into trouble. If he can get his change-up, which is more advanced than his slider, to click and stop nibbling, he can probably start getting big league hitters out. Until then, he is useless as a starter.

6) Francisco Pena
Upside, upside, upside. Until he proves he is a bust, he will be a highly regarded as a prospect. He has a good bat, good catching skills, and big league blood lines. His stats might not look good, but few catchers jump into full season ball at his age and that is just an impressive feat in itself and he should most likely repeat Savannah again next year. After next season, he should be moving up one level per year with 2012 as his target for being in the bigs and he will still be at the ripe old age of 22 for the entire regular season of baseball.

7) Kevin Mulvey
He is the only guy on the B-Mets with an ERA under 4.00 and has certainly passed his first test of his first full pro season. He owns four solid pitches with a low 90's fastball. He is never going to make scouts drool or make his way to the top of any prospects lists, but he has the ability and he has the repertoire to succeed at the highest level. He is precisely the type of pitcher that Shea (and hopefully Citi Field) will make look better than they probably are and I have high hopes for Mulvey. He should be ready by mid 2008 should the need arise.

8) Jon Niese
The hard throwing lefty is having rough season statistically. He is getting hit pretty hard in a pitcher's league but the big positive here is that he drastically cut down on his walks, which was his biggest issue in the past. His strikeouts are down substantially, but that could be a product of him throwing more strikes and pitching to contact rather than striking batters out. He should still be moving up to AA next season despite a less than stellar ERA and WHIP as long as he does not implode during the final weeks of the season. He is still 20 years old and a bit unrefined so I would not expect him to be ready for the bigs until mid 2010. Luckily the Mets have plenty of depth so he should not get rushed and should have all the development time he needs.

Here is where it gets dicey. If Eddie Kunz and Brandon Efferson had signed, I would have slid them right into the top ten with Kunz sliding into the 8th spot and Efferson sliding into the tenth spot. Though they will most likely sign, they have not yet and I have to play by the rules.

9) Scott Moviel
Scott was the second round pick this year for the Mets and was signed for $414,000. He is gigantic and he has an arm with big potential. He is pitching in the Gulf Coast League and the early returns are good. He has a 2.12 ERA, .219 BAA, and fourteen K's in seventeen innings. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the system and could move up quickly. If all goes well this season he could find himself pitching for Savannah next year in his first full season of pro ball. His target would be 2012 if everything goes well and he continues to develop.

10) Nathan Vineyard
Big Nate was the Mets second pick in the compensation round of the 2007 draft and signed for nearly $700,000. He is a lefty who throws in the low 90's with a nice slider. He has gotten knocked around so far giving up twelve runs in 13.1 innings but he also managed to strike out sixteen batters so far. He is getting hit to hard and giving up to many fly balls, but it is still early and it would be silly to judge any rookie in pro ball on such a small body of work. His target would be 2012 barring injury and could be moved through the system alongside fellow draftee Scott Moviel.

The issue I see with the top ten is there are three teenage pitchers, another twenty year old pitcher, and two college ones who have not pitched as well as many would have expected. With young arms, there is so much that can go wrong and so many things that can derail their progress. Also, it is rare that you can look at a guy and predict greatness like in the cases of Felix Hernandez or Homer Bailey (who can still have many things go wrong) so you never know what you truly have until they get closer to the bigs. When four pitchers are at High-A or lower, there is a ton of projection and a ton that could go wrong.

Throw on top of that Fernando, who has a lot more developing to do, Francisco having a ton of work to put in and a hard road to the bigs, Pelfrey and Humber not meeting expectations, and Gomez still being raw and you have a potentially explosive top ten. The likely scenario is a few make an impact with the downside being everyone burning out and the Mets getting a few middle relievers and corner outfielders who do not hit enough to keep their day jobs. However, the upside there is pretty immense as well. I would prefer some more sure bets, but the Mets youth and cash on the big league level certainly make things more palatable.

Other Noteables:
Dustin Martin, Sean Henry, Josh Stinson, Mike Carp, Jose Castro, Bobby Parnell, Tobi Stoner, and Brahiam Maldanado.

Mike Carp had been injured this season, but after a solid spring with the big club, expectations were high for him to make the next jump. That never happened and though he has not been horrible, he drops from the top ten it wasn't all that hard of a decision. His fifteen walks and sixteen extra base hits in 54 games in a hitter's league is certainly disheartening for Carp fans. Not to add fuel onto the fire, but he's hitting .140/.173/.140 line against lefties.

Martin, Henry, and Maldonado are solid and have been impressive at times, but I'll go with the young arms over guys who are slightly old for their leagues any day of the week. That being said, I do like them and there is value there. Henry is the best of the group and his athleticism is well known, but he needs to continue to add some pop and follow up his solid year in St. Lucie with a slightly better year in Binghamton to take that next step.

Bobby Parnell gained some velocity and is not too far behind Mulvey, but 78 baserunners in the FSL at 22 is nothing amazing. Parnell would have been #10 if Vineyard or Moviel did not sign, but they did and young unknowns with good arms and higher ceilings take precedent. Parnell still could be a #4 or #5 in the bigs if he keeps progressing, but should ultimately end up in the bullpen.

I'm still not sold on Castro. Too many singles...too little walks...too small...too many errors. He is 20 and leading the FSL in batting average so that does count for something, but he would have been in the #11 through #15 range for me and that is more of a reflection of a system that is not very deep more than anything.

Tobi Stoner is a somewhat of a cult hero amongst Met fans, but he's 22 and not doing anything special in the FSL. He has decent stuff but really is more of a middle relief prospect. He would be in the #15 to #20 range.

Josh Stinson is a decent prospect with a good sinker, but has not translated his ability into results.

Overall the Mets system is pretty much what it has been since 2003. It has some potential impact players with little depth behind them. That seems to be the Mets thing these days and although the system does have a bit more depth that it has had, it is all the difference from them being a top ten system and a bottom fifteen system. One thing that is curious is the Mets lack of Latin American signings.

Is there a dearth of talent out there? There has to be someone out there and with the Mets not exactly spending big in the past two drafts, holding steady on big league payroll, greatly increasing attendence, and their own network, it would make sense that they would be out there and active bringing in the top international talent as they did with Fernando and Deolis.

* * *

More prospect talk....Benny and Danny checked in with their thoughts on Pelfrey.

You know how Peterson preaches location and with some pitchers he tells them to take off a few mph for some location?
Well Pelfrey still has shitty location so maybe he should just throw as hard he can, taking off a few mph obviously isn't helping.
Cause I mean c'mon, throwing 92 mph just isn't that special. I'm VERY dissapointed in Pelfrey and I'm a very patient guy.

Pelfrey's fastball just has not been too special to this point which is part of the problem. He needs two very good secondary pitches to supplant his fastball whereas many said he just needs passable secondary stuff because his fastball was that good. He was supposed to throw 94 mph consistently and up to 97 while keeping it up in late innings. Now he is down to 92 to 94 mph and touching 95 mph. Could taking off a couple of notches on his fastball affect the movement?

The Mets have completely screwed up Pelfrey. They did two things to him:

(1) They flew him through the minor leagues before he had even mastered a decent offspeed pitch.

(2) Peterson tried to turn Pelfrey into a sinker-balling, groundball inducing machine, by asking him to take a couple of miles off his fastball and pound the bottom of the zone with sinkers. And oh yeah, even though that is not how you have ever pitched in your life, learn how to do that at the major league level.

It's nearly a crime the way they have mishandled Pelfrey. The worst thing the Mets could do is trade him now that they have submarined his value. The prudent thing to do is slow down and allow him to develop this year at AAA, and stop yanking him up and down, and certainly don't move him to the pen.

Be very wary of giving up on young pitchers. That's why I actually sort of liked what Pelfrey did when he came back to the bigs this last time. He was letting the fastball go at 95-97 and getting more swings and misses with it. The problem is, this is not Peterson's philosophy and they are going to butt heads on Pelfrey's approach. Pelfrey wants to be a power guy and Peterson stresses efficiency. It's not a good mix.

Pelfrey will thrive is he is traded somewhere and gets with a pitching coach that can exploit his strengths. I like Peterson a lot but he is screwing Pelfrey up.

Seems like what the Pirates did to Perez in a way. His fastball will induce groundballs, but that does not mean he should be confused with a sinker-ball pitcher who's job is to do only that and pitch to contact. He needs to simply miss more bats and worry less about groundballs since he doesn't have sinker per se, but a fastball with heavy sink. There is a big difference between what he throws and what Lowe and Webb throw.

Genius or stupid? You decide....

"I said to Jerry [bench coach Jerry Manuel], 'He's going to get a hit here. He's going to come through and do it for his dad.' I get those feelings sometimes--and sure enough, the next pitch he got a hit on. So I'm happy for him because he's been in Triple-A and he's been around a while."
--Mets manager Willie Randolph on Chip Ambres' game-winning hit.

Alou will be back tomorrow.

"I think my presence will help there," Alou said. "I think my bat will help in the lineup. I know I am not 100 per cent there yet, it is going to take a while to get my swing back."

While Alou's swing may not be completely back yet, he believes his quadriceps is.

"I think I am 99 percent," said Alou, who called the injury the worst muscle pull of his career.

The thing with Alou is that his injuries are more freakish than anything at times, but it has been yet another bizarre year for him.

The Nats are inexplicably trying to trade for Adam Dunn. For a team that is so far away from competing, words cannot describe how insane that would be. If he does get traded, they will have a crack at him in the off-season as his contract would be up after the 2007 season with 2008 being voided.

Some Pedro news but I'm not sure exactly what it all means.

The club said only this much: that Martinez had thrown 50 pitches and that his next activity -- throwing batting practice, a sideline session, another simulated game or pitching in a Minor League game -- would be determined Tuesday after Martinez's condition had been re-evaluated.

I'm not really sure what time frame those next activities would occur in, but August 20th seems like an aggressive target date at this point.

Joe Smith says he is not tired, but it certainly looks like he is.

Belliard is now off the market with his bargain two year contract being inked with the Nationals for 2008 and 2009.