A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Bottom? Perhaps not.

I have not done this since last year and Jorge Sosa's performance this year got me to thinking about it. Benny had said that although Jorge's night against the Twins was ugly on paper, it was a lot of bloops and not many hard hit balls. He was basically intimating that although his ERA has ballooned and made a big jump, he's been pitching good.

Well, that is not the entire picture. Jorge has been solid and threw up quite a few sparkling games, but his ERA was not completely indicative of his performance and his current ERA is probably a better indication of just to what level of production he has been putting forth. His DIPS ERA is 4.40 compared to his 4.05 ERA. Basically, he is pretty much where he should be right now.

For those of you unfamiliar with DIPS, here is what ESPN says:

A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly. The DIPS ratios on ESPN use the DIPS 2.0 formula, are not park-adjusted, and do not adjust for knuckleball pitchers.

While it is primarily used to evaluate and predict the following season's success, it is a useful measure to see if anyone is possibly due for a regression or is really better than they have looked in the current season.
                   ERA  dERA  BABIP
Pedro #2 1.80 4.02 .217
Mr. Billy Wagner 2.15 3.10 .197
Joe Smith 2.40 2.95 .301
John Maine 2.90 4.09 .244
Oliver Perez 2.93 4.07 .235
Orlando Hernandez 3.08 4.48 .259
Jorge Sosa 4.05 4.40 .234
Aaron Heilman 4.18 4.78 .208
Tom Glavine 4.67 5.06 .278
Aaron Sele 5.26 4.24 .368
Guillermo Mota 6.00 3.77 .325
Scott S. 6.04 6.24 .264
Mike Pelfrey 6.53 5.35 .304
The bad news here is there seems to be a few overperformers here with a possible regression even further in the Mets starting pitching, but that is really not a huge surprise though since John Maine and Oliver Perez will probably not end up with sub 3.00 ERAs and Orlando Hernandez will not end up with one hovering around 3.00. It seems the only two guys truly appearing to be killing it are Wagner and Smith (but maybe not after tonight) with Pedro, Ollie, Maine, and The Duque being the biggest over performers. Of course this is not perfect and non-strikeout pitchers are at a severe disadvantage, but is interesting to take a look at.

In contrast, here are a few other guys to take a look at:
                ERA    dERA
Jake Peavy 1.98 2.16
Brad Penny 2.12 3.06
Chris Young 2.26 3.40
Justin Germano 2.36 3.93
Ian Snell 2.63 3.54
Rich Hill 2.70 3.69
Tom Gorzelanny 3.01 3.86
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  • This is a sad commentary on the state of humanity.

  • [14:57] yankeescum: johan!
    [14:59] me: ugly
    [14:59] me: is baseball still even on?
    [14:59] yankeescum: so they say
    [15:00] me: unreal
    [15:00] me: i don't even watch anymore
    [15:01] yankeescum: probably best. my buddy here in the office is a big met fan and puts himself thru the agony of watching them every day
    [15:03] me: i used to, but I'm too busy these days to really make a concerted effort. I mean they don't, why should I?

  • It's good to see someone of relative importance side with me on managers.

    Managers tend to be interchangeable. Girardi has the right credentials, but so do many. Dave Trembley is an organizational guy who had a solid minor league resume, so there’s no rush here. We’re certain to hear several recycled names (Dusty Baker, Alan Trammell, Art Howe), but there’s also been some interest in guys you might not know as well like Chino Cadaiha or Trent Jewett or ones you do from different roles in Kirk Gibson or Dale Sveum.

    Many are quick to defend Willie if (god forbid) I ever speak foully about him or suggest that the Mets progress over the past few years had little to do with him. I'll be the first to say that a bad manager can certainly cost you games. Willie has costs the Mets games, but I'm talking about someone that disturbs the clubhouse and creates a bad feeling. Even the 'worst' managers will be able to quasi competently navigate their way through a baseball game, but I do think there are a few that are top tier managers that can make a difference and put some wins on the board with their skillzzzzzz.

    Bud Black is probably going to win Manager of the Year in 2007 and that is one that I'm sorry got away. If anyone remembers, he turned down an opportunity to interview for the Mets vacant position for whatever reason back in '04. He could have possibly preferred to stay on the West Coast, he could have not been ready yet, or he probably could have seen that Willie was the front runner because of his winning pedigree. Whatever the reason, he passed. However, is Bud Black even a good manager? I have no idea, but I know because his team is performing well in his first season he'll be the front runner. Judging managerial skills are largely subjective and it is really impossible to evaluate if one manager would have done better than another given the same team and the same situations so we are just left to argue about it...fun stuff!

  • I've always thought in the back of my mind that Dukes would be worth a shot if he wasn't going to cost much, but what's the point?

    Speaking to hosts Ian Beckles and Ron Diaz, Dukes blasted estranged wife NiShea Gilbert for "stealing" his money and said if he hadn't left her "he'd be in prison because she provoked me." Dukes, who is the father of at least five children by four women, acknowledged sexual relations with a then-17-year-old foster child but denied he is the father of her unborn child. He passionately defended his mother against claims of drug use.

    And he defiantly said that no matter how many "hyenas" try, "Nobody's going to bring me down with all these accusations they're making about me."

    Dukes, who was playing cards in the clubhouse before Tuesday's game, declined to explain his reasons for going public when approached by a St. Petersburg Times reporter, saying: "F--- you, you know I'm not talking to you."

    I can't argue with him not wanting to talk to the press after getting rake over the coals rightfully so or wrongfully so, but his delivery could have been a bit smoother around the edges and it really is just a microcosm for his entire being. He is just a kid with a huge chip on his shoulder and I'm not sure that headache is worth the upside.

  • This almost reads like an article from The Onion.

  • Some interesting thoughts on Slammin' Sammy and it looks like it's a pretty unanimous decision in regards to whether or not he is a Hall of Famer.

  • Yikes!

    Missing persons: Through Tuesday, the Mets (Wright and Delgado), the Pirates (Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche), the Marlins (Dan Uggla and Miguel Cabrera) and the Padres (Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron) were the only National League teams with two players with at least 60 strikeouts.

  • Carlos Gomez should be the starting left field right now. He should be run out there everyday except for some regular rest. You never know. Maybe he'll help provide a spark.
  • Labels:

    Wednesday, June 20, 2007

    The Stopper

    Well, Jorge Sosa's stats do not quite look all perty like anymore. His ERA went from 2.65 to 3.42 to 4.22 in three successive starts and culminating with yesterday's stinker against the Twins. Of course it is hard to get upset about any loss when Johan Santana is on the mound, but the the Mets are in dire need of taking a series. Oliver Perez who has been the Mets stopper year has the chance to help the Mets win their first series in six series.

    Yes, their first series in six series. If they lose today, it will be six straight losing series and what is more unbelievable is the fact the Mets are still 1.5 games in front of the Braves who have failed to capitalize on the Mets horrendous play of late. The Phillies made up some ground, but not all that much. That cannot exactly make them feel great about their current standing in the baseball universe, but it's about time the Mets put some lipstick on this pig actually win a series.

    What concerns me is this continual downard spiral of the bullpen. The Mets box score had these numbers appear next to their pitching: 4.05, 5.26, 6.00, and 6.04. I know Mota is still working his way back into shape, but to be successful, they need to have these guys pitch better and the Mets need more 3's next to some names. Of course if you cannot hit it is a moot point, but that seems like something that just has to come around because of the depth of this lineup.

    * * *

  • I have no idea why, but this is my new favorite thing to watch over...and over...and over...and over...and over.

    I am infatuated with Joe Morgan. Really, really infatuated.

    John Brookfield, WI: Do you believe the brewers will contend through the allstar break and if so what position do you see them seeking at the deadline?

    SportsNation Joe Morgan: I think they will contend. They are as good as anyone in that division. They need to get back to playing consistent baseball. They do need some starting pitching, but I am not sure what they would be willing to give up for that. But they will stay in the race throughout the season.

    Ever hear of Yovani Gollardo? That rotation is shaping up nicely and Bush is throwing better as well. Their starting pitching surely will not be the problem.

  • MMMMMMM...take a look at the pics.

  • Pedro news:

    Pedro Martínez, who is recovering from surgery on his right rotator cuff, threw 55 pitches Tuesday in Port St. Lucie, Fla., in the fifth outing of his rehabilitation. The Mets are hoping that Martínez can return to the roster in August.

  • Again...do people get paid for this stuff?

    Any deal, though, would likely have to involve top New York prospect Lastings Milledge, an outfielder, and at least one top pitching prospect such as Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber -- a price that might be too steep for the Mets.

    The Mets are still a top five ERA team despite their spiraling of late. I would love to add another solid starter and I would even consider moving Milledge to do it provide there is a legitimate chance the guy can be signed for '08. However, Lastings and Pelfrey/Humber for a possible 1/2 year rental? Simply nuts. Frankly just Lastings would be overpaying. Let us not forgot the bullpen is more of the problem here.

  • Dwight Gooden was sick. Just sick.

  • Injury updates from NJ.com

    Outfielder Lastings Milledge is swinging a bat and running as he recovers from a broken foot. ... Pitcher Dave Williams (back surgery) is on track for a rehab start next week. ... Outfielder Moises Alou (left quad) is in the midst of a 10-14 day holding pattern on the advice of Dr. David Altchek, after which Alou will be reevaluated for clearance to begin rehabilitation in Florida.

    Lasings!!! Let's go baby. Get back so we can see what you got.
  • Tuesday, June 19, 2007

    Tom Terrific?

    From DG on Friday:
    So, just an observation in regards to Glavine. Three innings so far - and the Detroit loss as well - and I kind of find myself wishing that he'd get his 300th then fade away next season. He cannot beat a patient team. You just really get the impression that he's scuffling toward his career mark and that there's not really that much left in the tank. Take off twenty years and put him in the Questec era, and you really have to wonder how long of a career he would have.

    This is one topic that I've been thinking about a lot recently. I actually sent this question into Jerry Crasnick's last chat, but it didn't make it on. Basically I asked this:

      Glavine is getting killed lately when he gets squeezed or even gets a true strikezone. If he doesn't get an inch or two off the plate, he simply does not have the stuff to get people out in the zone. You have to wonder if he would have a Hall of Fame career if he didn't have a generous strikezone early in his career. Of course he would have been good, but perhaps not a soon to be immortal.
    Back in the 90's, Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux were the beneficiaries of a very generous strike zone and the fabled one foot extension of the plate on the outside corner.

    These days, umps are pressured into calling a more true strike zone and the invention of Questec had helped start that. In Glavine's first year here, there was a big to do about the Questec and how it affected Tom Glavine's starts at Shea. The end result was a sub-par year for Glavine. An adjustment was made by Tom and he started using a change-up inside and he looked as good as ever again. I'm not sure if it was a mechanical tweak, his inside change-up, or him getting a bit wider strikezone again, but he looked like he was back on track. Now the league has caught back up with him, he's doing something wrong mechanically, or the zone is tighter.

    These days, I have zero confidence in him putting up a sparkling start. Like DG said, a patient team is not going to chase that fading change-up off the the plate. A younger team might, but he doesn't seem to be fooling anyone these days and laboring through his starts piling up 40+ pitches in two innings in to many starts lately. He still has ten quality starts out of fifteen starts, but he's gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. He has five wins and is on pace for twelve which would leave him at 302. However, I'm not even sure he is a sure bet to break 300 with the way he is pitching and the Mets are playing. Scary to think about it, but if he doesn't reach 300, we might see him again in 2008 and that would seemingly be a very bad thing.

    * * *

  • Carlos Beltran....he's hurt.

    Beltran, who went 0-for-6 Saturday, admits that he has been bothered by a nagging left quad injury, the Daily News reports.
    Spin: Beltran plans to play through the discomfort, acknowledging that he can ill-afford to go on the DL, given the state of the Mets' banged-up outfield. Beltran, who added that rest would "probably" fix the injury, said he feels more discomfort when he bats lefty, since it requires him to put added weight on his left leg when he swings.

    The Mets have now dropped 11 of 14. If he sat or even went on the DL, how much worse could it be? The fact is, an unhealthy Beltran is not helping this team one iota. At least a healthy Beltran might help this team string a run together. With Gomez heating up a bit and bringing his average up to respectable levels and Milledge around the corner, Beltran can and should take the time he needs and at some point. Met management needs to make that decision because Beltran is not going to make it and a week might do him wonders.

    Randolph is not concerned about Beltran's leg and Beltran did look much better on Monday.

  • Yankee fans now know the name Oliver Perez pretty well. He is 2-0 against them with a 1.20 ERA and a .192 BAA in two games this season. Watching him deal on Friday was a delight. Unfortunately, that was the only nice thing about this weekend. Watching the aforementioned Glavine continually give it back to the Yankees was exasperating beyond belief and I had no confidence in the Mets getting to Wang. It seems the Mets always have trouble with guys that have heavy sink.

    What to do now? Not much. Still, the starting pitching is not of paramount concern to me and the offense is not going to get upgrade. What we see is what we are going to get with the exception of Lastings Milledge getting added to the roster when he returns and has a short rehab stint. The bullpen? Not many people are available outside of some guys from Texas and probably some guys that do not appreciably upgrade the team. Basically the Mets have to fix this team and straighten it out with what the currently have.

    Depending upon how you feel about the team right now, that could either be encouraging or very, very discouraging. I don't have any doubts they will straighten out, but I do think they look a bit weaker overall than I thought.

  • Wright, Beltran, and Reyes are still leading the charge in their respective positions. While Miguel Cabrera is getting shut-out here, it certainly is not a stretch for Wright to be in the All-Star game after picking it up. Beltran on the other hand is simply not playing well enough to earn a spot, but hopefully he turns it around like Wright did to make it a moot point.

    Marc Raimondi says that John Maine should be included as well.

    In 14 starts, he has given up more than three runs only twice and has made it out of the fifth inning all but once. The Mets are 9-5 when he starts and they won his first seven outings of the season before tapering off lately.

    Though Maine hit a lull, him and Perez have certainly pitched well enough this season to get some strong consideration. Both are in the top six of ERA and are up there in wins. Also helping out Perez's case is the fact that LaRussa is going to be picking and one has to think Ollie's game seven performance has not been lost on Tony.

  • Does T.R. Sullivan really get paid for this?

    Will the Rangers trade Sammy Sosa once he gets his 600th home run? I would think you can get something good for him.
    -- Ralph T., Fort Worth

    I don't see trading Sosa, unless it would be to the New York Mets. That's something to watch. Otherwise, it's hard to envision.

    First of all you have to assume that it would be an American League team so he could be a DH. But who? The Red Sox have David Ortiz, the Indians have Travis Hafner, the Tigers have Gary Sheffield, the White Sox have Jim Thome and the Athletics are getting Mike Piazza back. The Angels use Vladimir Guerrero too much at DH.

    I definitely could see Mets general manager Omar Minaya being interested in Sosa if his outfield problems continue, but it's doubtful that another NL team would be interested unless it's as a platoon player or pinch-hitter. Then the Rangers wouldn't get much in return.

    But watch out for the Mets.

    The Mets ain't trading for no Sammy Sosa.

  • Did he ever have a chance?

  • Lonnie Wheeler thinks the time is right to deal Adam Dunn. Ummm....the time was right two years ago to trade him. Now it's pointless. The Reds have no one to blame but themselves and it's not really a wonder why they are in the place they are in.

  • A-Rod is hot again....

    In his last 28 games, Rodriguez has 12 homers and 34 RBIs. That is more homers than any Yankee has all season and as many RBIs as Bobby Abreu. Yet it is the 22 games that came before this stretch that accentuates his season.

    In 28 games, his production numbers look exactly like David Wright's overall numbers. Nuts. Sherman thinks that he could be the first player with an annual contract of $30 million. I don't see that happening just yet, but he's going to get something really, really, really big.

  • The Mets FINALLY played an all around dominating game. The starting pitching was as tight as a camel's ass in a sandstorm, the bullpen put up goose eggs (Pedro #2 allowed an inherited run to score on a bloop), and the offense was relentless. FINALLY a game I could watch without slightly regurgitating in my mouth...well Friday's game was pretty good as well, but this was more well rounded.
  • Labels: