Bottom? Perhaps not.
I have not done this since last year and Jorge Sosa's performance this year got me to thinking about it. Benny had said that although Jorge's night against the Twins was ugly on paper, it was a lot of bloops and not many hard hit balls. He was basically intimating that although his ERA has ballooned and made a big jump, he's been pitching good.
Well, that is not the entire picture. Jorge has been solid and threw up quite a few sparkling games, but his ERA was not completely indicative of his performance and his current ERA is probably a better indication of just to what level of production he has been putting forth. His DIPS ERA is 4.40 compared to his 4.05 ERA. Basically, he is pretty much where he should be right now.
For those of you unfamiliar with DIPS, here is what ESPN says:
A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly. The DIPS ratios on ESPN use the DIPS 2.0 formula, are not park-adjusted, and do not adjust for knuckleball pitchers.
While it is primarily used to evaluate and predict the following season's success, it is a useful measure to see if anyone is possibly due for a regression or is really better than they have looked in the current season.
ERA dERA BABIPThe bad news here is there seems to be a few overperformers here with a possible regression even further in the Mets starting pitching, but that is really not a huge surprise though since John Maine and Oliver Perez will probably not end up with sub 3.00 ERAs and Orlando Hernandez will not end up with one hovering around 3.00. It seems the only two guys truly appearing to be killing it are Wagner and Smith (but maybe not after tonight) with Pedro, Ollie, Maine, and The Duque being the biggest over performers. Of course this is not perfect and non-strikeout pitchers are at a severe disadvantage, but is interesting to take a look at.
Pedro #2 1.80 4.02 .217
Mr. Billy Wagner 2.15 3.10 .197
Joe Smith 2.40 2.95 .301
John Maine 2.90 4.09 .244
Oliver Perez 2.93 4.07 .235
Orlando Hernandez 3.08 4.48 .259
Jorge Sosa 4.05 4.40 .234
Aaron Heilman 4.18 4.78 .208
Tom Glavine 4.67 5.06 .278
Aaron Sele 5.26 4.24 .368
Guillermo Mota 6.00 3.77 .325
Scott S. 6.04 6.24 .264
Mike Pelfrey 6.53 5.35 .304
In contrast, here are a few other guys to take a look at:
Jake Peavy 1.98 2.16
Brad Penny 2.12 3.06
Chris Young 2.26 3.40
Justin Germano 2.36 3.93
Ian Snell 2.63 3.54
Rich Hill 2.70 3.69
Tom Gorzelanny 3.01 3.86
[14:59] me: ugly
[14:59] me: is baseball still even on?
[14:59] yankeescum: so they say
[15:00] me: unreal
[15:00] me: i don't even watch anymore
[15:01] yankeescum: probably best. my buddy here in the office is a big met fan and puts himself thru the agony of watching them every day
[15:03] me: i used to, but I'm too busy these days to really make a concerted effort. I mean they don't, why should I?
Managers tend to be interchangeable. Girardi has the right credentials, but so do many. Dave Trembley is an organizational guy who had a solid minor league resume, so there’s no rush here. We’re certain to hear several recycled names (Dusty Baker, Alan Trammell, Art Howe), but there’s also been some interest in guys you might not know as well like Chino Cadaiha or Trent Jewett or ones you do from different roles in Kirk Gibson or Dale Sveum.
Many are quick to defend Willie if (god forbid) I ever speak foully about him or suggest that the Mets progress over the past few years had little to do with him. I'll be the first to say that a bad manager can certainly cost you games. Willie has costs the Mets games, but I'm talking about someone that disturbs the clubhouse and creates a bad feeling. Even the 'worst' managers will be able to quasi competently navigate their way through a baseball game, but I do think there are a few that are top tier managers that can make a difference and put some wins on the board with their skillzzzzzz.
Bud Black is probably going to win Manager of the Year in 2007 and that is one that I'm sorry got away. If anyone remembers, he turned down an opportunity to interview for the Mets vacant position for whatever reason back in '04. He could have possibly preferred to stay on the West Coast, he could have not been ready yet, or he probably could have seen that Willie was the front runner because of his winning pedigree. Whatever the reason, he passed. However, is Bud Black even a good manager? I have no idea, but I know because his team is performing well in his first season he'll be the front runner. Judging managerial skills are largely subjective and it is really impossible to evaluate if one manager would have done better than another given the same team and the same situations so we are just left to argue about it...fun stuff!
Speaking to hosts Ian Beckles and Ron Diaz, Dukes blasted estranged wife NiShea Gilbert for "stealing" his money and said if he hadn't left her "he'd be in prison because she provoked me." Dukes, who is the father of at least five children by four women, acknowledged sexual relations with a then-17-year-old foster child but denied he is the father of her unborn child. He passionately defended his mother against claims of drug use.
And he defiantly said that no matter how many "hyenas" try, "Nobody's going to bring me down with all these accusations they're making about me."
Dukes, who was playing cards in the clubhouse before Tuesday's game, declined to explain his reasons for going public when approached by a St. Petersburg Times reporter, saying: "F--- you, you know I'm not talking to you."
I can't argue with him not wanting to talk to the press after getting rake over the coals rightfully so or wrongfully so, but his delivery could have been a bit smoother around the edges and it really is just a microcosm for his entire being. He is just a kid with a huge chip on his shoulder and I'm not sure that headache is worth the upside.
Missing persons: Through Tuesday, the Mets (Wright and Delgado), the Pirates (Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche), the Marlins (Dan Uggla and Miguel Cabrera) and the Padres (Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron) were the only National League teams with two players with at least 60 strikeouts.