Bottom? Perhaps not.
I have not done this since last year and Jorge Sosa's performance this year got me to thinking about it. Benny had said that although Jorge's night against the Twins was ugly on paper, it was a lot of bloops and not many hard hit balls. He was basically intimating that although his ERA has ballooned and made a big jump, he's been pitching good.
Well, that is not the entire picture. Jorge has been solid and threw up quite a few sparkling games, but his ERA was not completely indicative of his performance and his current ERA is probably a better indication of just to what level of production he has been putting forth. His DIPS ERA is 4.40 compared to his 4.05 ERA. Basically, he is pretty much where he should be right now.
For those of you unfamiliar with DIPS, here is what ESPN says:
A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly. The DIPS ratios on ESPN use the DIPS 2.0 formula, are not park-adjusted, and do not adjust for knuckleball pitchers.
While it is primarily used to evaluate and predict the following season's success, it is a useful measure to see if anyone is possibly due for a regression or is really better than they have looked in the current season.
ERA dERA BABIPThe bad news here is there seems to be a few overperformers here with a possible regression even further in the Mets starting pitching, but that is really not a huge surprise though since John Maine and Oliver Perez will probably not end up with sub 3.00 ERAs and Orlando Hernandez will not end up with one hovering around 3.00. It seems the only two guys truly appearing to be killing it are Wagner and Smith (but maybe not after tonight) with Pedro, Ollie, Maine, and The Duque being the biggest over performers. Of course this is not perfect and non-strikeout pitchers are at a severe disadvantage, but is interesting to take a look at.
Pedro #2 1.80 4.02 .217
Mr. Billy Wagner 2.15 3.10 .197
Joe Smith 2.40 2.95 .301
John Maine 2.90 4.09 .244
Oliver Perez 2.93 4.07 .235
Orlando Hernandez 3.08 4.48 .259
Jorge Sosa 4.05 4.40 .234
Aaron Heilman 4.18 4.78 .208
Tom Glavine 4.67 5.06 .278
Aaron Sele 5.26 4.24 .368
Guillermo Mota 6.00 3.77 .325
Scott S. 6.04 6.24 .264
Mike Pelfrey 6.53 5.35 .304
In contrast, here are a few other guys to take a look at:
ERA dERA
Jake Peavy 1.98 2.16
Brad Penny 2.12 3.06
Chris Young 2.26 3.40
Justin Germano 2.36 3.93
Ian Snell 2.63 3.54
Rich Hill 2.70 3.69
Tom Gorzelanny 3.01 3.86
[14:59] me: ugly
[14:59] me: is baseball still even on?
[14:59] yankeescum: so they say
[15:00] me: unreal
[15:00] me: i don't even watch anymore
[15:01] yankeescum: probably best. my buddy here in the office is a big met fan and puts himself thru the agony of watching them every day
[15:03] me: i used to, but I'm too busy these days to really make a concerted effort. I mean they don't, why should I?
Managers tend to be interchangeable. Girardi has the right credentials, but so do many. Dave Trembley is an organizational guy who had a solid minor league resume, so there’s no rush here. We’re certain to hear several recycled names (Dusty Baker, Alan Trammell, Art Howe), but there’s also been some interest in guys you might not know as well like Chino Cadaiha or Trent Jewett or ones you do from different roles in Kirk Gibson or Dale Sveum.
Many are quick to defend Willie if (god forbid) I ever speak foully about him or suggest that the Mets progress over the past few years had little to do with him. I'll be the first to say that a bad manager can certainly cost you games. Willie has costs the Mets games, but I'm talking about someone that disturbs the clubhouse and creates a bad feeling. Even the 'worst' managers will be able to quasi competently navigate their way through a baseball game, but I do think there are a few that are top tier managers that can make a difference and put some wins on the board with their skillzzzzzz.
Bud Black is probably going to win Manager of the Year in 2007 and that is one that I'm sorry got away. If anyone remembers, he turned down an opportunity to interview for the Mets vacant position for whatever reason back in '04. He could have possibly preferred to stay on the West Coast, he could have not been ready yet, or he probably could have seen that Willie was the front runner because of his winning pedigree. Whatever the reason, he passed. However, is Bud Black even a good manager? I have no idea, but I know because his team is performing well in his first season he'll be the front runner. Judging managerial skills are largely subjective and it is really impossible to evaluate if one manager would have done better than another given the same team and the same situations so we are just left to argue about it...fun stuff!
Speaking to hosts Ian Beckles and Ron Diaz, Dukes blasted estranged wife NiShea Gilbert for "stealing" his money and said if he hadn't left her "he'd be in prison because she provoked me." Dukes, who is the father of at least five children by four women, acknowledged sexual relations with a then-17-year-old foster child but denied he is the father of her unborn child. He passionately defended his mother against claims of drug use.
And he defiantly said that no matter how many "hyenas" try, "Nobody's going to bring me down with all these accusations they're making about me."
Dukes, who was playing cards in the clubhouse before Tuesday's game, declined to explain his reasons for going public when approached by a St. Petersburg Times reporter, saying: "F--- you, you know I'm not talking to you."
I can't argue with him not wanting to talk to the press after getting rake over the coals rightfully so or wrongfully so, but his delivery could have been a bit smoother around the edges and it really is just a microcosm for his entire being. He is just a kid with a huge chip on his shoulder and I'm not sure that headache is worth the upside.
Missing persons: Through Tuesday, the Mets (Wright and Delgado), the Pirates (Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche), the Marlins (Dan Uggla and Miguel Cabrera) and the Padres (Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron) were the only National League teams with two players with at least 60 strikeouts.
Labels: rotation
posted by michael o. at 12:45 AM
35 Comments:
There is no proof that Sammy Sosa did anything. THere is a HUGE difference between Jason Giambi, Marvin Bernard, Randy Verlarde, Jose Canseco, Gary Mathews Jr., Barry Bonds, and even guys like Mark McGwire, Brett Boone, and Ivan Rodriguez.
Those names have been linked to some sort of proof whether its being caught red-handed like Bonds, Verlarde, Marvin Bernard, Giambi, and Mathews Jr. Or whether its being named in Canseco's book based on alleged eye witness first hand account like Boone, McGwire, Pudge, and Giambi again.
People are just assuming Sosa did it for whatever reason.
Me personally? I think that he did it, i think he took some stuff but still, its fucked up. Why do people continually put him in the steroid catagory even though Sosa's name has never EVER been linked to steroids, its just been based on assumption.
Whatever, the moral of the story is that, now that he's hit homerun number 600, its just amazing to think that he is truely a name forever in the record books. If there were to be a Mt. Rushmore of the top 5 homerun hitters of all time, Sammy Sosa's ugly ass face would be on there and that's amazing. Steroids or not, that's just remarkable and he deserves to be in the hall of fame.
It's history, he is history, Sammy Sosa is baseball history.
Oh yeah and umm, about the Mets? Well I like Carlos Gomez.
3:18 AM
RE: Sammy….Steve Phillips the other day had an infallible argument as to why Sosa didn’t do steroids. He corked his bat! He said if he corked his bat, why would he feel the need to do steroids? Just let that sink in….Airtight baby…airtight. Double cheating would cross some boundary that no player would cross.
Is Sammy Sosa just one of the worst Hall of Famers there is going to be? Sammy goes boom…but he went boom during a time everyone was going boom. I’m sorry, if you look at the numbers he put up during those huge years comparatively to everyone else, is he really that impressive? 5th time on the HR list…yes. I know. That is what kills my argument, but I think power numbers during that era have to get looked at different like power numbers from 1950 are looked at different and 500 is not longer a benchmark. I just don’t know how I can really make an argument, but I don’t want Sammy in the Hall. Or McGwire for that matter. Bonds, absolutely.
9:40 AM
My only input into this debate is
a. Reporters were 'chastised' for even reporting it during the chase even when McGwire was on camera with Andro in his locker.
b. Sosa: There are alot of supplements at GNC: Jay Payton (and Sosa) pointed to Creatnine as there substance of choice way back when..so who really knows who did what.
c. Where is Sheffield in this? He practically ratted Bonds out.
11:46 AM
On Gomez: Against the Dodgers and Yanks last week Gomz went 7-14 (i believe).
I agree leave him (Gomez) in left. His defense has been dazzling and his energy too. And I'd leave Gotay at 2nd. Both players provide energy and need a real oppurtunity.
DW and Reyes also need a day off once in a while. They seem to be the only players that have to play every down.
11:51 AM
Mike,
BP (written by Marc Normandin) had an interesting article on John Maine. Normandin goes over how DIPS relates to him and everything else. Bottom line without rehashing the stats:
"It seems as if Maine has finally figured out how to pitch to advanced hitters, despite never really putting it together at Triple-A. He does not have the sky-high strikeout rates from his time in the low minors--nor should he, considering why he had those in the first place--but he has managed to bring his low hit rates with him to the majors. He will be interesting to watch for the next few years as he attempts to keep his BABIP far enough below the league average to remain an effective starter. As 2007 proves, he's capable of doing just that."
That's basically what you should be able to ask from any pitcher in the middle of your rotation. I wouldn't worry about any regression from John Maine base on DIPS type stats at this point. He might get tagged in a few outings when the defense isn't there but he's also gonna have more good games than bad...
12:29 PM
Glad to see that Kingsport started strong this year! I figure I should start with that.
Gomez not being in left field last night was a serious mistake with Perez pitching. It would have saved at least one run perhaps more. As I wrote previously, with a fly ball pitcher, whether Johnny Maine or Master P, on the mound. the quickest, most defensively able outfield should win out over what we can only faintly assume in this case was an offensive advantage in the mind of Mr. Randolph. That's the only crit I'll put on this one. OP cannot always be expected to save us. He was off.
Apparently Pelfrey's going to start one game of the doubleheader next Friday. Maybe he'll be better. I bet that means "Arrividerci Ruben Gotay!" FREE RUBEN GOTAY!!! There's a new motto for you Mike!
Sammy Sosa used to be on the Cubs right? I have selectively forgotten Sammy Sosa.
Anyway, when will the boys wake up? It's starting to grate....
12:59 PM
Sure everyone had big years but he still hit about 20 more than most of his peers. With theexception of Bonds, McGwire, and even A-Rod, no one came close to his number.
While most of theleague was in the mid to late 40's in terms of homeruns, Sammy was hitting 60.
Are we going to ignore and hate on Griffey because his peers went "boom" when Griffey went "boom"? c'mon, lets be consistant and fair here.
People have a vendetta against him, and I'm not going to lie, even last year I wasn't so sure if he was a Hall of Famer but now that he's hit 600, I dunno, it sounds stupid but it opened up my eyes and made me realise, that "wow... he's hit alot". But to completely ignore 5th place on the all time homerun list? It's insane! And Sammy is not McGwire, Sammy was not a one trick pony. He scored alot of runs and even stole a nice chunk of bases. He was 30-30 twice in career. He was decent on the field with a nice arm, too bad his defensive decline was harder than Roberto Alomar in NY, but still for about 4 or 5 years he was pretty good.
1:24 PM
Benny, you could argue that the whole reaction to the Sosa cork affair almost served as a surrogate for the whole steroid situation at the time. Is it irrational, yes, but I must admit I have doubt when it comes to all of the home run hitters of the time. Does that extend to Griffey? No, and I think most people seem to hold him apart from the whole steroid mess.
1:39 PM
Sheffield thought he was putting moisturizer on his biceps. He had no idea it was roids. He’s keeping his mouth shut because he doesn’t want any attention whatsoever while he builds his Hall of Fame career with little scrutiny focused on his steroid usage.
Rest Reyes and Wright…BRILLIANT! Though right now, Willie probably cannot sit them or feels like he can’t because they cannot hit and those guys are at least hitting. Can Gotay play 3rd? He can play shot…let him work in. I want more PT for him and Gomez in left every game. Period.
That's basically what you should be able to ask from any pitcher in the middle of your rotation. I wouldn't worry about any regression from John Maine base on DIPS type stats at this point.
True..and there are guys that can survive and consistently post lower than league average BABIP, but it’s something to keep and eye on and while I believe they will regress, I don’t forsee a 4.00 ERA or anything like that. 3.78? Would that be what I expect? Yes. I think he and Ollie are about a 3.50 to 3.90 pitchers in regards to ERA so I do think they are playing about their heads a bit right now.
Glad to see that Kingsport started strong this year! I figure I should start with that.
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
As I wrote previously, with a fly ball pitcher, whether Johnny Maine or Master P, on the mound. the quickest, most defensively able outfield should win out over what we can only faintly assume in this case was an offensive advantage in the mind of Mr. Randolph.
Don’t assume anything. The formula has worked before and not just in theory. Willie is proving me more right than wrong. Winning covers up a lot of things, but I think a lot of people are starting to see that he has many flaws and that includes writing out a lineup and using a bullpen. Those aren’t two small things either….
Gotay getting sent down will only for a day…but it will be interesting to see what Pelf can do after collecting his thoughts and putting up a few good starts.
While most of theleague was in the mid to late 40's in terms of homeruns,
Yeah, but even today that is out of whack. How many mid to late 40’s guys are there? There were a ton during that 3 or 4 year run. I’m not saying I can ignore 600 homers. I even said I cannot make an argument to defend my point that sounds intelligent, but still….
Does that extend to Griffey? No, and I think most people seem to hold him apart from the whole steroid mess.
But Griff was knocking them out when he was a scrawny early 20 year old. Dude is legit. But I guess you can say the same for McGwire’s 49 as a rookie.
1:56 PM
Oh, and Griff was better than Bonds for the first half of their careers. Griff could have been the best of all time if he didn't catch that injury bug.
1:57 PM
Does that extend to Griffey? No, and I think most people seem to hold him apart from the whole steroid mess.
I know, and that's what I'm talking about, why not?
Besides the cork incident, which we're not even talking about, we're talking about steroids.
Sosa has been NEVER connected to steroids and has NEVER been accused. He has as much proof as Griffey does. Which is none.
He wasn't even accused by Canseco! WOWZERS!
All it is, is in our heads. We're the ones accusing him. There's NOTHING that suggests he used it other than the public belief.
Bonds has a book and that jury testimony, alteast its rational.
Again, I personally think he did it but there's no proof, not even an accusation to make us believe we're right!
2:20 PM
Word out on the street is that a "Metropolitans" favorite, Milton Bradley has been DFA'd by the A's.
Holy guacamole batman! A crazy psychopath to give the Mets some edge? It's exactly what the Mets need.
I want Milton Bradley damnit!
2:34 PM
RE: Sosa…yes it is circumstantial, but we can only go by our eyes. Wrong or right, he was huge and then had a steeeep decline when the hard testing came in and when it all hit the fan. Like Boone, Pudge, and a few others, they will be connected to it because their increased mass decreased and they fell off in production big time. It is not like there is no correlation though not hard evidence.
Right now, I’d take Bradley. Maybe some life in this clubhouse (good or bad) wouldn’t be a bad thing.
2:53 PM
But the difference between Pudge, Boone, and Sosa is that umm, there has been a first hand account on the topic of steroids. So even though it is Jose Canseco, he still saw it, he helped Pudge, and had a quick conversation with Boone that points in that direction, that can't be said about Sosa who has... nothing.
Also with Sosa, the decline could be pointed to age, some of it could be pointed as staying healthy.
In 2004 in only a 120 games he STILL hit 35 homeruns. With 40 remaning he could have easily hit atleast 5 more. Maybe even 10!
And in 2005 with Baltimore he was injured all season long and in 100 games hit 14 homeruns, he could have hit 15 more the rest of the way.
THe problem was that later on in his career that's all he did, he only hit homeruns. He stopped walking, swung at everything and his average just became decent... but still, if the thing in question is the power and the homeruns, it never left.
And again his decline could be pointed to age and injury. As a 36 and 27 year old. You know the same way Willie Mays went from 47, 52, 37, to 22, in terms of homerun during the ages of 33, 34, 35, and 36.
3:20 PM
Point taken, but is Sosa really in Mays' category? I just don't see him as an all-time elite numbers be damned! Sorry!
3:28 PM
And yes..I know my arguments are flimsy or even nonexistent since I'm using the 'just because' argument.
3:28 PM
Anyways, who cares anymore, on to good news.
The two golden chosen ones have made the Futures Game!
Deolis Guerra and Fernando Martinez are on the World Rosters.
Other names I'm looking forward to seeing are Evan Longoria, Ian Stewart, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Gorkis Hernandez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Hochevar, Elvis Andrus, and Pedro Beato!
Wow, this is probably the best roster ever!
3:58 PM
This comment has been removed by the author.
4:15 PM
'Don’t assume anything. The formula has worked before and not just in theory. Willie is proving me more right than wrong. Winning covers up a lot of things, but I think a lot of people are starting to see that he has many flaws and that includes writing out a lineup and using a bullpen. Those aren’t two small things either….'
We are all noting this.
4:22 PM
Great! I hope Beato just rubs in it in some more. Slot this!
To actually see Guerra and F-Mart is going to be great. The other notables will be great to see as well.
AE, way to bring some intelligence into the situation….However, like you said, he’s not an all-time elite. This is my bone to pick…by today’s standards, he is. But aren’t the standards a bit messed up? Shouldn’t it be ONLY for elite players? I’m talking guys like Bonds, Piazza, Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Griffey, Traschel, Rivera, etc…. I just do not put Sosa in that group. I actually want the Hall to be held in higher reverence that it is. Would that be such a bad thing?
4:23 PM
We are all noting this.
Is that a threat for an 'I told you so' or 'this is why you are dumb' later? The Mets will probably turn it around...but is Willie going to be the driving force?
4:24 PM
Mr Met: I think you served notice on this site (again), that willie the player's manager has huge flaws in his baseball accumen. Right now Manny Acta is opening eyes in Washington...is post Manny Acta Shea more of a Willie Redux?
It has been noted that this team is lacking passion.
My icing on this commentary is this; a. Scrap iron Garner replaced Jimmy Key in Hou just prior to the All-Star game several years right about the time they imported Carlos Beltran. They went on a TEAR all the way to the NLCS.
b. With no logic in sight, Jack McKeon replaced Jeff Torborg on a young Marlins team which then went to the WS.
4:34 PM
Right now Manny Acta is opening eyes in Washington...is post Manny Acta Shea more of a Willie Redux?
Here’s the thing….Is Girardi really better than most managers? Is Bud Black? Is Manny Acta? The only way to truly judge these guys is by wins. The players might not like them, but they may be able to get some extra out so it’s not entirely based on whether or not the players like them as long as they can make things cohesive. A good team and play good enough to cover up any managerial deficiencies and a bad team can make a manager look really bad. Perlozzo wasn’t great with the bullpen, but after spending as much as they did, should anyone have been that bad? That is pretty much what ended up burying him, but unjustly? Was he just a better fit as a coach? It’s such a nebulous thing to point down. How do you accurately quantify a manager’s worth? How can you examine and make sense out of every move?
I’m not calling for Randolph’s head mind you. As Klapisch penned today, Pedro might be the guy to fire everyone up. I think it’s plain to see they need something.
4:49 PM
Mr Met:
You took this waay beyond my orginal thought. Question is WOULD a change of manager light a fire?
Now your answer deates good vs bad managers-
Yes it is ungradeable: LaRusso now has a WS ring w/2 teams and is regarded a great manager. Torre is lauded also as is Leyland. Ultimately the head has to be able to mold the parts. Like I said the Willie meter may debut soon.
5:22 PM
Would it light a fire? I'm not so sure it would. As with Torre when people were calling for his head, how replaces him? Who replaces Willie? He has reported to be well liked. Maybe it gets people angry and fuels them, but I'm not sure that is the answer. Maybe this team is just not as good as we thought? He cannot make Delgado hit.
If Delgado doesn't hit and Alou cannot stay on the field, I cannot see how this team as currently constructed is going to live up to our expectations unless someone steps it up like Milledge.
5:32 PM
That said how did Garner/Mckeon get players to pitch better and hit better in 2004-2005? I really hated those changes when they happened but they DID get results.
Your point is valid. Bochy is in Sf no change, Bud Black in SD- no change.
As for potential replacements for Willie? Gary Carter and Ken Oberkfell lie in wait, with HoJo and Sam Perlozzo close by.
Staying in the field: Is DW or Reyes going to play better without a periodic day off? If Sho (for example)allows all inherited runners to score, do you bring him into a close game with men on?
Just random thoughts.
6:26 PM
Gary Carter and Ken Oberkfell lie in wait,
Well, if you've come here often in the past you'd know those are the first two I quickly point to. But again to my previous statement, how do we KNOW they are better? Personally, I'd prefer a catcher as a manager. They are the quarterbacks of the field so to speak and run the pitching game most of the time as well as other aspects. They are always shouting out to the field (or should be) and are thinking on every pitch.
I think there is merit to that.
Reyes and Wright need to rest. For mental reasons rather than physical. It's nice to show up to the park and take it easy for a second and take a breather and sit around. It's a long season and playing 162 is antiquated these days. Rest if you can, but I don't think the Mets can. They need to string a few wins together and doing that w/o Wright and Reyes seems a bit nuts.
Shonuff should never see anything but garbage. Bring in Sele first.
9:09 AM
Mike, you heading to the game tomorrow? I will be there looking for the sweep. I believe I'm in the loge section 413. let me know if you're around. Beers on me for all the entertainment you provide!
Anthony
10:15 PM
I don't get these intimations in the press today that LoDuca's little psychotic display last night at Shea was a motivational kind of thing. Imagine if LMillz had done that, there would have been an angry (mediatic) mob, but, no, Paulie lost his fucking mind for the team!
10:26 AM
Yeah DG, Lo Duca lost his FUCKING MIND, haha. That was HILARIOUS!
I was dying of laughter when I saw that.
If Milledge did that, it'd be a wrap for him. He'd be considered a malcontent, crazy guy influenced by "the" rap music.
11:31 PM
Mike, we were all looking for a chance to gloat after our swellicious sweep but, alas, no new post! In any case, a doubly fucking swell-A weekend. Gotta hafta like it!
Well, the Big Gotay's days are numbered with Pelfrey having bombed in his last start before being called up again (pattern?). Of course, the Mets could give Julio some DL R&R for his balky knee, not that that would give Gotay any more playing time.
I'm wondering if Dave Wiliams takes Aaron Sele's long man spot around the same time or just after the Pelf man gets shipped back to Non Orleans. Some sort of shakeup is coming.
And if the Mets trade Carlos Gomez, I would be seriously bummed. Kids been overmatched, but I'd argue that he should not be sent back to the minors. Period. One thing for sure, he will be on the post season roster regardless of what happens between Alou's return on August 21st and the start of September. Kid hit one ball (well, two: he did fly out to relatively deep CF) out of the infield yet had three hits yesterday. I cannot wait until the Mets put hurdles up the first base line!
Still wondering about LoDuca's psycho outage this weekend. No wonder why opposing players hate him. Call him the Demon Barber of Shea with those looks. Mets will have to promote a catcher to allow for his likely suspension which means messing with the 40 man a bit more. Pedro to the 60 day retroactive to the beginning of the season? Can't think who they would DFA for a two day slot for DeFelice.
7:59 AM
And not wild about the idea of a trade for Contreras either. Rather Buehrle if possible as I genuinely think he's worth more. But neither are worth the prospects when the thing the Mets really need are pen and bench related. Well, check that, if you could get MB with an extension guaranteed, that would change the equation.
8:15 AM
Ehh, I just don't like Buerhle. I don't see him as a difference maker.
I think the bullpen should be something to be looked at. I want Omar to improve the bullpen because I feel the offense and the starting pitching is fine.
12:11 PM
Agree, B. Still I'd rather have him than Contreras who has never been the consistent pitcher that he was expected to be. But likely both are more costly than the Mets should have to spend. Frankly, I'd think the prospect collateral would be better spent elsewhere or at a more cost effective time. The problem doesn't really seem to me to be anything related to the starting pitching, and I'd rather see the Mets lose a draft pick next year than someone who's close to the majors.
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