Steady As She Goes

It is not really a shocker that the three best teams from a pitching perspective are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Cubs. They are just annihilating other teams in regards to run differential and are getting it done on the offensive end as well.

The Mets are in the second tier of pitching talent sitting fifth in ERA+ with a 106 behind the Phillies, which is rather surprising to me. What else is rather surprising is the fact that the ace by far of the Mets staff has been Johan Maine.

Name     ERA+
Maine    145
Santana  123
Pelfrey   98
Perez     96
Figueroa 79

I have been under a rock for a bit so I really had no idea John Maine was doing so well. In fact, it is even more of sad commentary that I had no idea because he is on my fantasy team, which is making a hard charge towards first place and all others in my league should be wary of the impending doom that is about to befall them.

Mike Pelfrey has actually made some nice strides this year slightly outperforming Oliver Perez and you really have to say that this team is looking pretty solid right now from a rotation standpoint with Pedro Martinez making his way back. Five 100+ ERA+ guys in the rotation for the second half? Nice. That could really be the catalyst that finally pushes this team to the top of the NL East.

Scary trend.... Johan has 11 homers in 60 innings and the other four starters 14 homers in 166.1 innings. Let us hope he can squash his staggering homerun totals in short order. He is on pace for an amazing 40 dingers after moving into a nice pitchers park which hurts righties and into the NL. He certainly has been very good so far, but I think we all were expecting Cy Young worthy and he is not even sniffing that at this point.

* * *

I have forgotten what it is like to have Pedro on this team anymore. It is hard for me to take these things seriously, but eventually he is going to stay healthy enough for a nice string of starts.

Speaking of injured pitchers, where the hell is The Duque?

Interesting.

METS AREN'T REALLY AMAZIN'

As they arrive in Atlanta for a four-game series, the Mets (22-19) are coming off a two-game sweep of the Yankees and are just one game out of first place. But tensions are high, with closer Billy Wagner calling out his teammates last week and Carlos Delgado, still hovering at .230, being dumped into the seventh spot in the lineup.

Last I checked the Braves were behind the Mets. Their run differential is pretty and all, but Smoltz may not see the mound again in 2008 and Chipper is good for about 30 games on the DL. Temper the excitement down there.

Ted Berg lays it down.

People claim that the players don't care enough to win. Nonsense. Go try to find a player in the Major Leagues who doesn't want desperately to win every single game he plays in. You won't. You don't make the big leagues if you don't care.

Is that 100% true? I mean, no one wants to lose, but there are surely people that want it more and some people that are just not effected as much. Maybe I am crazy here, but I think some people are more emotionally invested in winning and losing than others. I think it is obvious that these guys want to win a shitload more than they want to lose, but I think there are varying degrees of desire.

All in all, a good article that dishes out some perspective, but this team makes it really hard to keep perspective when the manager is crying racism and they cannot put some room between themselves and a .500 record.

Bobby V. may not have had the smoothest ride here and I might not want him managing my team, though I would take him 100 out of 100 times over Willie, but it would be great to see him back in the bigs. The man can beat any ump in a quiz of baseball rules and he really should be given a chance somewhere. His style would be perfect for a young and burgeoning team.

Oh my, my, my, how two little games can change perception.

The Mets offense put on a display in both games against the Yankees, coolly beating their two best pitchers while providing a glimpse at just how potent the team can be when everything is humming.

"We worked the count a little bit, drew some walks," third baseman David Wright said. "We didn't try to do too much and went the other way."

This was the strategy Wright outlined against Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang and their No. 2, Andy Pettitte. The Mets' execution was flawless. They combined for 18 runs and 22 hits, mashed four homers and drew eight walks.

If they can remain patient, they can blast Glavine out of the water and that would be good for my soul.

Vargas and Nellie Figs have been pleasant surprises so far. You really cannot complain about getting the type of output that they have been giving as the 6th and 7th pitchers.

Teixiera would be great, but he is going to cost a lot of cash. Mike Carp certainly makes me feel better hitting .338/.389/.537 in Binghamton, but he needs to take a few more walks for me. Luckily enough, Nick Evans is hitting .291/.356/.557 and Dan Murphy is hitting .329/.369/.482. I would not like to rely on one of those guys, but if you tell me all three can go after it and the best man wins, I would be OK with that.

A Heaping Helping of Awesome

Joe Smith? Off the charts with a 208 ERA+. Pedro II? Off the charts with a 186 ERA+. Mr. Billy Wags? Off the charts with no hits and one walk in seven innings. Dirty? Looking like he is off the charts with some great looking outings.

As a team, they have a 118 ERA+ which is just great. Heilman will come around and Johan will get into a groove and look sharper. Perez has looked like the ace of the staff by far with a 155 ERA+ while making people look stupid. Every game he goes out there this year, Scott Boras is seeing the piles of cash just multiply innumerably.

I cannot say any of the above is all that shocking because I believed in those arms. However, Pelfrey and his ERA+ of 122 is good for second on the staff and a welcomed surprise. The Mets now have five above average starters that I can see continuing to perform at their current level for the remainder of the season, or in Figgy's case, until Pedro comes back.

With the Mets three games over .500 and .5 games out of first, it is hard to not feel good. Amazing how much difference a week makes.

* * *

Chase Utley is awesome.

Willie lays it down.

"Welcome to the club, just like everybody else," Randolph said. "No one feels sorry for us when we have injuries, so we're definitely not going to feel sorry for them, that's for sure. Injuries are part of the game. We've got guys out, too."

No Alou? No problem. No Pedro? No problem. Shit is part of the game.

David Wright is awesome.

David Wright & Chase Utley are awesome. Why do I think the MVP is going to come down to those two?

Alou is making his way back.

Philly fans? Classless.

Jose Reyes is killing it these days and it amazes me how quickly Mets fans get down on some players. Guys like Heilman and Reyes are too good to keep down and will be alright.

Trouble Brewin'

Ut oh. Mike Pelfrey has looked worse and worse as time goes on and I still like him long term. I am betting big on 'ole Mikey boy, but right now? I want something a little more.

With Lohse signing for such a bargain deal (and he is a BIG bargain), you have to wonder what Omar was thinking. Or maybe wasn't thinking.... Again. This is akin to buying a brand new Ferrari and not buying insurance.

The Mets went out and built this magical and fantastical team that has me seeing lollipops, puppy dogs, unicorns, and rainbows everywhere I go and there is a very large hole that could have been covered up for about 3% of the total payroll. How could you not be in on Lohse at this point if you are Omar.

I am not going to say it is shameful, because that is too much....actually...fuck that. Shameful. Every team needs an extra starter or two and the Mets have a glaring depth issue at this point. I really think the Mets will be fine without him, but there will be big headaches and it will be much closer of a race then it needed to be.

* * *

All-Star game in Queens? Awesome.

The lone Met signed through 2013 is Johan Santana, who just inked a six-year, $137.5 million deal. David Wright's current six-year, $55 million package expires the previous season, although the Mets have an option for 2013 at $16 million. Barring a trade, teenage prodigy Fernando Martinez would still be under the Mets' control, having turned 24 years old.

$16 million for the best player in baseball in 2013? I just got chills.

Global warming take note... The Mets are on the case.

Pelfrey was 'so-so at best'.

"I'm really disappointed that I fell behind a lot of guys," said Pelfrey, who walked two, struck out one and threw 88 pitches. "I really wanted to be more aggressive. I wish I was a little more efficient than what I was."

Tough Decisions on Tap

With The Duque looking worse by the day, the Mets have some serious decisions to make. They could run into the season with what they have and let Pelfrey have the fifth spot and they can hope The Duque will provide depth at a later date. Or, they can try and nip this thing in the ass right away and tell Pelfrey his time to shine will have to wait until someone gets hurt.

The buzz going around that Lohse can be nabbed for someone between $4 million and $10 million dollars for a one year contract. Since 2002, he posted an ERA+ of 105, 98, 89, 106, 78, and 100. Obviously one year is way out of the line and the others are very 2007 Tom Glavine-esquely average. He went from being a guy who was looking for a ridiculous contract that was way out of line with what it should have been to a guy who is a veritable bargain. Scott Boras overplayed his hand and a guy who should have easily had a job if they were reasonable from the start is now not doing much of anything.

              Glavine vs. Lohse in '07
          ERA  K/9 k/bb Batting Against Inn ERA+
Glavine  4.45 4.00 1.39 .281/.338/.438 200.1  96
Lohse    4.63 5.70 2.14 .279/.339/.447 192.2 100

I am fully aware that Glavine was a far better pitcher in prior to 2007 and I am kind of cherry picking numbers here, but you get what I'm saying. One guy was good enough for a $8 million dollar one year contract and a first round draft pick and the other guy is getting the Jose Canseco/Sammy Sosa/Barry Bonds treatment. If I were him, I would fire Boras right away and maybe he would get some work. Lohse was grossly mishandled and now he is sitting home instead of trying to gain some consistency in his career.

Furthermore, at 29, there is surely room for growth. He also posts decent k/bb ratios and strikes out enough people to satisfy me. I am torn for sure because I want the Duque in the bullpen and Mike Pelfrey in the rotation. However, the only problem with that is there is no depth that does not really compromise the bullpen if The Duque is pitching effectively from there and I think he will. With Lohse in the mix, Pelfrey is the #6 guy and The Duque is the emergency #7 guy with Vargas, Sosa, etc. as the shit hitting the fan group.

If anything, this current rash of injuries should make the Mets front office seriously consider bringing in too many pitchers to the fold. If someone goes down, the Mets will be in trouble. Who can they dish off to get anyone who is worth anything? Sure they can take a look at the scrapheap, but there are certainly better options.

If anything, the extra depth gives the Mets at least something to deal at the break if they needed to upgrade their team in other areas. Lohse could be dished off with no commitment following him and Pelfrey could take over mid year so they can monitor his usage over the course of the first half. At $40 million over four years, not taking Lohse is a no brainer. At $5 to $8 million over one season, it is a no brainer to go after him. With one more season like 2007, he also stands a pretty good chance of giving whomever picks him up a sandwich pick.

The Mets are primed for some pretty great things this season. To see them evaporate because of depth would truly be shame. When it was cost prohibitive it was one thing. However, Lohse is set to be a bargain in baseball terms and bargains make you rethink your original plans.

* * *

Mike Pelfrey continues to do the right things.

Mike Pelfrey allowed two hits, including an infield hit, and retired six batters on groundouts while pitching three scoreless innings in his second start of the spring.

A strikeout would not kill the kid, but the six groundballs is very nice.

Ruben might be more injured than than anyone previously thought. Not good for Gotay.

John Donovan is drinking the Pedro Martinez Kool-Aid and why not? Again, Pedro is not the first guy to get surgery. If he did not have a nice five game stint at the end of '07, I would be leery. But he came back before anyone thought he did and did much better as well.

Now, he is back in a Mets uniform and looking sharp. I have high expectations for him this season. Yes, I doubt he will toss 200 innings, but that is fine. 180 innings is more in line with what I'm expecting. We all have to remember he has the ability to be very economical with his pitches and get through 6+ innings with 90 pitches.

I think Wallace Matthews is trying to pull a fast one by switching his name around. Thanks for the shitty article.

Cory Patterson is now a Red. The man's line in the bigs is .258/.298/.414. He looked like a star in the making, but that never happened. Dusty Baker had been calling for him and now he has him, which means Jay Bruce is likely out. The fact is, if this team truly thinks they have a shot at the NL Central or the Wildcard, Bruce should be in.

If they truly do not believe that, then this move is just fine. For me, I think Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Votto are enough wildcards that give me pause before I say this team has no chance. The fact is, there is upside there. Arroyo, Harang, Bailey, and Cueto could potentially be a nice front four with Fogg and Affeldt still in the mix. Their bullpen could be greatly improved as well if Volquez and Affeldt are in there as well.

Hypothetically Speaking

Let us say for a moment that the Mets needed to include Gomez, F-Mart, Mulvey, and Pelfrey to compete with the packages of the Red Sox and Yankees for Johan. Of course I have no idea if that is truly even and offer, but Jayson Stark mentioned that the Twins had asked for all of them in addition to Humber. You cannot blame them as you have to start somewhere and leave room for the Mets to negotiate down.

Would that be a remotely intelligent move? I have a hard time believing so. As stated yesterday, Oliver Perez is set to hit the market with The Duque and Pedro. Of course they can all come back, but it would cost close over $35 million to do so on top of the $20 million they are paying Johan and the raise John Maine would be due to get.

Then, you would have to look at the depth of the system and gag just a bit with a complete dearth of talent at the top of the system with the exception of Phil Humber able to contribute meaningfully at the big league level. If you are counting on the three picks of the '08 draft that have not even been picked yet to bolster this team's future, that might be a little optimistic. Those picks need to be a supplement of players already in the system.

Deolis Guerra, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, Phil Humber, Brant Rustich, Scott Moviel, Nate Vinyard, Robert Parnell, and a few others are still around, but that would unequivocally be one of the worst three systems in baseball. Three picks, even if they all pan out and the Mets are able to score top tier talent that dropped a bit are not going to change that much. Also, the only meaningful players set to step on a big league diamond before 2010/2011 will be Humber and a few relievers.

Not that I enjoy adding more caveats, but the likelihood of those guys stepping on the field being impact players their first season or two is extremely unlikely which pushes back the time line a bit for them to be a vital part of this team. Of course, that is all predicated upon these guys, who have so far to go, working out. It is scary out there on the free agent market and with more teams having cash and letting less and less talent go, you simply need to be able grow some players. By the time Reyes and Wright are done being cheap, the Mets are set to virtually have no cheap help from within barring anything big going on and they will have plenty of holes to fill.

If you are are not developing, you are not winning. I want Johan and who wouldn't? But it can certainly be argued that the Mets are not in as dire of a need as many think with Pedro, Ollie, and Maine leading the team. They give the Mets a shot to win in a short series and provide a solid foundation for the pitching staff in '08. This 'get Johan at all costs' idea does not resonate all that well with me and the Mets are not quite at the point where they can trade five top prospects for one player, but should strive to get to that point with a few good drafts, holding onto their top picks, and paying out over slot.

Johan makes the Mets favorites, but it is a big gamble and big loss if they do not win it all. It is tough to pass up on a deal like this, but if Omar truly cares about 2009 and beyond, he better tread lightly. I am not saying there is no package the Mets can put together that makes sense both now and long term, but the ones we have heard bandied about that it will take to land Johan are certainly not a positive thing for this team after 2008.

* * *

Swisher dealt to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, and Faustino De Los Santos? Wow. I have to say that Kenny Williams has made some bold moves this off-season, but he does have two young and extremely solid to very good outfielders on his hands now. I like Swisher a lot, as many of you all do, and he is still under control for a while. If you are going to trade youth, you need to get youth back. I'm sure people will be saying Williams gave up a lot to get him, but it seems fair in my eyes given the contact status of Swisher.

I was not all that huge of a fan of the Garland move, but Williams has put together an interesting off-season if nothing else and definitely made some aggressive moves to cover some holes. At this point, Beane absolutely needs to just rid the team of Blanton and whatever other tradeable commodities there are, but you have to be ok with his current haul so far if you are an Oakland fan. It is never easy to see your team rebuild, but doing it intelligently should cushion the blow.

First Post of '08

I hope everyone had a good time over New Year's. I had a swellicious, scandalous, and rapacious one. Unfortunately, I have to wait a year to do it again.

Now back to the snoozefest that we call the baseball off-season. Some random items:

When there is little else to do during these dark days of baseball, you can look ahead. Mentioned within the piece is Oliver Perez. We talked about him and John Maine in the beginning of last season and the impending free agency Oliver Perez. Deals on guys like Vincente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan are painting a very clear picture.

Oliver Perez will get paid and Scott Boras will make sure of that. It would be nice if the Mets could get him inked to a nice four year $44 million extension, but that will not happen. Not unless Perez loves New York a whole lot and we all know you do not hire Scott Boras to get you signed with a team in a town that you love.

However, despite a solid year last season, Perez is still someone that not many people count on. Even with an '08 that rivals his '07, there will still be many doubters, but it will not matter. He is young and he is lefty. He will get a giant contract and one has to wonder if that contract will be from the Mets.

I think it is worth the risk for Mets to ink him during Spring Training if they could at something less than what he can get on the open market. Perez's incentive will be security and the Mets might continue to have a 'bargain' on their hands. Odds are he sniffs free agency though since not many players get to be in their prime and a free agent.

Just some more food for though, the Mets have three starters slated to hit the open market next off-season with only John Maine having any sort of big league experience set to be around. I cannot state plainly enough how imperative it is to get Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber some meaningful innings this year to see if they can take that next step because two of Humber, Pelfrey, and Mulvey might be a bigger part of the '09 rotation than the Mets would like.

By way of Rob Never, Vegas Watch takes a scary look into the Hall of Fame voters reasoning skills.

"During a visit to Yankee Stadium in the late 1970s, I wanted to talk to Goose but was told he was cruel and gruff to reporters. I sheepishly introduced myself and said I was from Colorado, his home state, and he talked pleasantly for 30 minutes. We've been good friends since. I would vote for him even if he wasn't deserving."

Not much analysis needed here, beyond this. At least others were seemingly trying. Did you really expect someone else in this spot?

Amazing stuff. It is a shame that the thing that is supposed to pay the ultimate respect to the best players of the game we love so much is a heaping pile of shit.

Boring days also seem to insight crazy talk. Would Yu Darvish get posted? Not unless someone would make it worth it for the Ham Fighters to give up a lot of years of Japan's best player and pay a $100 million posting fee, which would be totally insane. The Daisuke posting fee of $51 million was borderline insane and at no point can I come up with some logic that allows Darvish to be worth an insane posting fee and the money it would take to convince him to sign. If the posting fee runs higher than Daisuke's and the team that inks him gets him for six years, what would he cost annually? The posting fee and his salary would run his cost for six years of service higher than what Johan Santana is looking for over seven years. Pure insanity.

That's it. Nothing going on whatsoever in baseball.

Still Looking...

The Mets would still like to add a starter and not much has materialized so far. No one is all that interested in Met prospects but Jim Bowden and it is becoming increasingly clear that Bedard and Santana will probably be somewhere other than Queens and Carlos Silva is off the market. However, Kyle Lohse still remains on the market with his ridiculous contract demands. I think Silva is valuable, but four at $11 million is steep and Lohse is represented by Boras and is making noise about a five year deal.

It would be nice to see if the Mets can get Lohse down in years (and I’m not talking about the purported four year deal on the table), but that seems impossible at this point. He is the last guy to resemble a pitcher that might be able to drop a better than league average season on you. Of course, Silva has at least put up some of those seasons while Lohse has been pretty disappointing throughout his career. Neither guy can actually strike hitters out which is always a problem and will probably keep them both from being anything more than #3/#4 type guy at best. Silva is supposed to be a groundball pitcher, but he is only mildly so and probably better classified as a pitcher with groundball tendencies.

Stats Inc. on Lohse:

Pitching
Too often in 2004, Lohse left his fastball over the middle of the plate, nibbled with his breaking pitches and fell behind, or issued hurtful walks. While he has good stuff, he can't overpower hitters with a 93-94 MPH fastball. He must locate the ball to succeed. Lohse has a good slider and curveball, but needs to consistently execute his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball. When in trouble, he has bad mound presence, looking disgusted by umpires' calls and teammates' mistakes. Near the end of the season, he began handling himself better. To his credit, he always has been durable and willing to take the ball under any circumstances.

While it is clear to me Carlos Silva is a better bet to be more productive, his demands scared the Mets away. The ironic thing is the Mets might end up paying just as much for less of a pitcher. Pitching is so scarce that any guy who makes 30 starts and hits free agency around 30 years old will net four years at $10+ million dollars per year. Regardless of projection and past performance, they are a valuable commodity by simply being alive. The Mets have set a cap of five years on any offer to free agent pitchers. However, that cap is presumably for top tier pitchers and they probably were not envisioning the Kyle Lohses of the world when they thought of guys that would actually get them to even pony up close to five years.

There have reportedly been reports of people reporting that Phillies are looking at Lohse for four years. It has also been reportedly reported that some reports had some misreporting on the topic. Interest in Lohse could be waning overall and for good reason. However, Lohse has Scott Boras as his agent and will wait until late January to make a decision if he has to in order to get someone to blink first. My only hope here is that the market for Lohse gets dryer than it already has now that Silva inked. Maybe Boras will do the one year deal route with a contender in a spacious park to see if he can bring in a bigger deal for Lohse in 2009. That is actually what I am hoping for at this point which is pretty sad.

* * *

The saga continues. If A-Rod is telling the truth, you almost have to respect him a bit more. Almost.

By way of Rob Neyer, a really great site. This is a black hole of sorts if you have not read it before and it will probably end up usurping a lot of your time.

Selig back in '05

"Did we have a major problem? No," Selig told Waxman's panel. "There is no concrete evidence of that, there is no testing evidence, there is no other kind of evidence."

It all depends on how your define the problem.

The Mets inked Matt Wise and it's a one year deal for peanuts....well peanuts in relative baseball terms. And how can you not like the move?

Does anyone actually believe any of this?

I'm not all that bothered by raising the tickets 20% per ticket if that is what they planned on raising the ticket prices to for comparable seats in the new stadium. We knew that was the case and maybe Fred just wanted to pocket a little extra cash this season since he is dishing up a lot of money for that new stadium.

However, I think we all know that is not the case. He was probably looking for a 40% price hike from 2007 to 2009 and decided it was best to do it in stages. The worst part is that it will not matter. He already has most of my money for my tickets because I had to buy the playoffs tickets. I could have gotten my money back I suppose, but sometime in mid 2008, which is way after the bill for the 2008 tickets are due, which leads me to the most ridiculous part. I already committed to buying these tickets a long time ago without any knowledge they were going to bend me over and abuse me.

Not that it would have mattered. I would have bought the tickets regardless, but it still should be mentioned that I had no choice. But isn't that the real problem here? Sure this is horrible PR move by the Mets being they just embarrassed themselves and broke the spirit of the Mets fan base, but we all keep going to the games. They will still break last year's attendance or at the very least get within 20% of it, which will enable them to still make a handsome draw off the gate receipts. I would love to say boycott going to the stadium, but what's the point? I am still going to go and that would be hypocritical of me to tell everyone else to take a stand while I go enjoy some beers at the stadium.

Either way, this is just another poorly timed statement that gives other people more reasons to laugh at the Mets. After undergoing a historic collapse in which the team sets their attendance record for the second year in a row with the help of their loyal fans, they do what? Raise prices. As if the 500,000 more in attendance was not enough....

The Yankees raised their tickets prices as well.

Doesn't Brian Roberts, Andy Pettite, etc. admitting that they did steroids give a ton of credence to the Mitchell Report? Sure we can argue the validity of their statements in regards to their usage, but it surely gives everyone a sense that maybe this thing is not as bogus as some would want us to believe.

The Mets are looking at Prior, but would the Mets be a wise choice? It would seem to make sense for him to go to some Midwest town like St. Louis where the fan base will cheer you on no matter what so he can make a less pressure filled attempt at a comeback.

A miserable life? Has it come to this? I thought these were supposed to be good times to be a Met fan.

Terrence (NYC): John!!! A Mets questions please. Only fair, I lead a miserable life. Can you tell me what I can expect from Fernando Martinez? What current player would you compare him to?

John Manuel: (2:51 PM ET ) Best-case, his career winds up a bit like Carlos Lee's--all the value in the bat but he mashes, hits for decent average, gets more disciplined as he advances . . . both players were pushed but even the White Sox let up a bit on Carlos, he was 18 in the SAL, not the EL. But that's my comp.

Back off my man? This is all getting odd.

Parcells to Miami? As a Dolphin fan, it is hard to be upset about that. I won’t expect him to be around in the organization for long, but I think he has a pretty good reputation for leaving a decent team behind.

From Jason Stark:

The Mets still seem like a hanger-on in the Johan Santana talks. But one AL front-office man isn't sure why that is.
For one thing, he said, the Mets can put together a package that would be attractive to the Twins -- in part because outfield prospect Fernando Martinez "has a higher ceiling than Jacoby Ellsbury."
The second reason, the exec said, is that the Twins should make it a priority to move Santana out of their league. "Remember, the Twins are looking to compete, too," he said. "They're gearing up with good young players, and they're going to be good. But if they trade him to the Red Sox or Yankees, those teams are so deep, it wouldn't even really take a chunk out of them, or not that much of a chunk, anyway.

Funny Ha Ha / Winter Meeting Madness

Yet another instant classic. Back to some baseball...

But if the Red Sox wind up sweeping Santana out from under them -- and adding him to a rotation that already includes Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka -- it will be fascinating to see if the Yankees feel the need to respond by reeling in another ace of their own.

"If the Red Sox get Santana," said an executive of one NL team that's grateful to be in the other league, "they might be the best team in the history of the frigging universe."

Nothing wrong with raising the bar a bit even if you did just win the World Series and it is safe to assume that landing Johan would be raising the bar.

The two deals on the table are John Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson or another player versus Jocoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson, and Jed Lowrie. Decisions...decisions. For me, the best thing for the Twins to do would be to take deal number one.

I like Ellsbury, but he has seem to taken on a life of his own in terms of prospect status and while he is a good centerfield prospect, he is not worth that much. He is 24 and has not showed an ounce of power in a pretty big sample size in the minors. He is going to be a solid player, but I actually think the first package gives them more impact players. The Red Sox would probably be better off with them taking deal number two and keeping pitching depth in their system or using Lester in another trade.

Lester slots into the rotation right away and has front end potential and Jed Lowrie could be an offensive star in the bigs while Masterson gives them decent arm in their system. Also, let us not forget that Crisp was pretty good in 2004 and 2005 for the Indians and might have a nice bounceback year outside of Boston and actually outplay Ellsbury over the next three seasons. People have soured on him a lot, but the fact is he is still young and still talented and could very well revert back to form. Afterall, he would not be the first guy that could not cut it in Boston (see Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, Matt Clement).

It is hard to envision Santana leaving and not bringing back a starting pitcher being they just gave up two, but they seem to like Ellsbury that much. No matter who they end up getting from the Sox, at least he is not a Yankee. With the Mets boldly dishing off a top tier talent for Church and Schneider, the Yankees landing the world's best pitcher would just be insult to injury.

* * *

The news item of the day has to be Cabrera and Willis to Los Tigres. Unreal. The Marlins get Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Mike Rabelo, and three pitchers. From Gammo:

Here are the three pitching prospects the Tigers are sending to the Marlins in the Cabrera-Willis deal: right-handers Eulogio De la Cruz (3.62 ERA in the minors with a blazing fastball), Dallas Trahern (13-6 between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo) and Burke Badenhop (12-6 between Lakeland and Erie).

Apparently that De La Cruz guy hit triple digits with his fastball. All in all, the Tigers have balls. They made a huge deal and gave up some solid players, but got the second best right handed bat in the game at 24 years old and the resources to keep him around. Also, you have to give it to the Marlins. They made another good deal and truly seem to be a fair trading partner that a lot of small market teams should take notes from. No matter how much it hurts to trade a guy, good deals can be made.

I thought the Pettite fiasco was a bit strange. Unless the Yankees knew he would come back all along, it is weird why Andy would make them wait. Sure it is his right to wait, but with the Yankees in a bit of a lurch, Pettite probably affects how they approach their hunt for a starting pitcher and how much they would pay. Sure he is back in time, but he surely made them wait.

I like me some Erik Bedard, but let us not get crazy.

But while Bedard's cost, in terms of dollars, is far less than that of Santana, the Orioles believe Bedard's value, in terms of the talent they should receive in return, is just as high as that of the two-time Cy Young winner from Minnesota -- who is still expected to be traded to either the Yankees or Red Sox in the next day or two, with the winning bidder signing him to a contract extension worth perhaps $150 million.

Bedard has been impressive the last two years, but he still has not notched 200 innings, his k/9 in 2007 was way above anything else he has ever done, and he is actually older than Johan. Also, if you get Santana, you get him for another six or seven years due to the negotiation window. You have to pay out of your ass for him, but you will retain him.

With Bedard, he is only under control for two more years and there is no guarantee at all that he would signing with whatever team acquires him. Is he worth the same haul as Johan? Probably not. He obviously has a ton of value, but we will see if McPhail ends up working something out.

One NL talent evaluator who loves Bedard said, "Bedard is closer in talent to Santana than Haren is to Bedard. In fact, it is not impossible to believe that in a year, we will all think Bedard is better than Santana." An AL executive said, "Here is what impresses me about Bedard, he pitches in the AL East against the Yankees and Red Sox. So, to me, he can pitch anywhere and excel."

Of course it depends if you think Bedard has turned that corner at age 28 to become an elite pitcher or if you think he had a career year and is likely to regress a bit.

The Mets are still interested in Kuroda.

One AL team official, in previously providing a scouting report to The Post on the 32-year-old Kuroda, classified his fastball as "average to slightly above average." The official also praised Kuroda's forkball, strike-throwing ability and competitiveness. Kuroda will require a multiyear deal.

This is looking like the better thing to do day by day so the Mets can keep a semblance of a farm system because the asking price for Haren and Bedard are sky high. Also, with the Mets lack of intriguing prospects, it is increasingly unlikely a deal would ever get done. I know the Mets do have some talent, but other teams are just not enthused about them.

I wish the Mets liked young players.

The trade of Quentin — to the Chicago White Sox for a low-level minor league first baseman — does nothing to damage the D-Backs’ chances of trading for a high-end starting pitcher, Byrnes said. The D-Backs’ best trading chip appears to be Double-A outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, whose path to the majors is blocked by Justin Upton. Speedy second baseman Emilio Bonifacio is also drawing interest from other clubs, including Washington.

I still have faith in Quentin. The White Sox got themselves a nice right fielder who should be able to put up some pretty damn good numbers from day one. It would have been nice if the Mets could have spun a three way as I would of rather had Quentin in right with Milledge heading to Chicago. But alas, the Mets have become infatuated with elder players.

Peavy and the Padres are close to agreeing on an extension that will pay Peavy roughly $17 million in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Not a bad deal at all for the Padres.

A heinous and yet extremely delicious crime.

I think Ted Berg said it best about the Milledge deal. Church might pleasantly surprise. He might outperform Milledge in '08 even, though I think Milledge will probably be better. However, the Mets really did not need to make this move. Schnieder is not all that much better than Estrada when you factor in Estrada should be better offensively and was rather proficient at throwing runners out pre-injury. Then you factor in the money owed to Schneider and this still makes no sense in any context. But the Mets did it and they seriously seem to have issues with giving young guys a shot.

Just a view from the other side:

Andrew (London, UK): Jayson, I understand what you're saying, but the fact of the matter is that Milledge's OPS was only 26 points less than that of Church, he's older with less upside, Schneider is AWFUL offensively (.336 SLG), and the Mets already have Estrada and Castro behind the plate. Even if Milledge's value is in decline (which I don't think it is - any outfielder who is as good as he is defensively, with an OPS of almost 800 in just 140 AB at age 22, plus he's cost controlled - has trade value), why not let him play every day for awhile to let him re-establish his value?

Jayson Stark: (1:26 PM ET ) You make great points. If this were the only move the Mets were going to make this winter, I'd be with you all the way. But Castros isn't an every-day catcher. They obviously didn't think Estrada was what they had in mind. So they have more well-rounded pieces to deal with now, I think. All they had before was outfielders. So they had to make two deals to address their needs, not one. For pure tools, the Nationals got the best player in the trade. But it makes some sense for both sides. Remember, Omar Minaya feels the heat to WIN RIGHT NOW. If he waits around for Milledge to put it together, somebody else will be the GM of that team.

The most swellicious quote of the week?

Otis (Toronto, ON): This is dedication: 1. Start your chat at the office while closing door to office and declaring a "brainstorming session" 2. Continue on the commmute home via blackberry 3. Continue chat on the home computer, taking breaks for smokes and steaks that being said, how close are we to having the Knicks banished to the WNBA?

Bill Simmons: That a boy, Otis! I like the idea of banishing the Knicks to the WNBA - Renaldo Balkman would be the 10th most attractive player in the league.

Runner up for quote of the week?

"A deadline is a deadline. It was pretty much done as of this morning," Steinbrenner said on Tuesday, according to AP. "He's a fine pitcher, but there's a lot of things that go into this. This isn't fantasy baseball."

Goodbye Glavine

I know there are a lot of people out there wondering how Glavine will be replaced. In regards to the '08 Glavine, I do not think it will be all that hard. Keith Law says it best and this is the main reason why I am not sorry he is gone.

Glavine's stuff is just about gone. His fastball is only 80-84 mph and looks softer than that, almost like BP fastballs. His curveball is a big slow roller around 75-77 mph, and his changeup -- once a plus pitch -- is fringe-average, mostly 74-75 mph, but the way his arm slows as he throws it is a tip-off to observant hitters. His command is good, but needs to be almost perfect, and his game plan is to avoid contact at all costs. If he's not getting a generous strike zone, he's in trouble because his stuff is so hittable, and he doesn't have a pitch with which he can fool hitters.

I just saw too many games where he just had nothing and if he was not getting an inch off the plate, he was done. You could tell if Glavine was going to have a 'good' day or a 'bad' day from how the umpire was calling the first pitches. Full count on the first few batters? Glavine was going to get shelled because he was not getting a generous zone. I do not think Glavine was doing anything different for the most part on this 'good' days and 'bad' days, but he needed assistance on the 'good' ones.

Yes, he gave us innings. Yes, he did some good things for this team. However, he is an aging Hall of Famer that is way past his prime and his usefulness. Give me a first round pick in '08 and someone else who can get remotely close to his 200 innings instead. It was time the Mets and Glavine part ways and those of you who think the Mets will miss him more than they think will not be saying that as he owns a 4.75 to 5.00 ERA mid-way through the year and labors through yet another season.

For Atlanta, the move has a second ramification beyond the money spent on the contract. Glavine was a Type A free agent, and by signing him before the arbitration deadline, Atlanta ceded its first-round draft pick to the Mets. New York now has the 18th pick, and the 20th pick if it doesn't sign a Type A free agent of its own, while Atlanta won't pick until the second round if it chooses not to offer arbitration to Andruw Jones. It's strange to see an organization that built a long run of success on scouting and player development give up a draft pick for a one-year player who might be a good fifth starter if everything breaks right, and it won't help the Braves restock their farm system after a cupboard-emptying July, when they dealt prospects to Texas for Mark Teixeira.

In regards to the Braves staff, they have two legit frontline starters. Glavine fits much better in the framework of their team being he will be a #3, #4, or #5 for them. With the Mets, Willie would have contiually treated him like their ace and probably would have been starting game one or two of any potential playoff run to maximize his usage in the playoffs. The Braves bolstered their rotation at the cost of a first round draft pick, but the Mets are clearly better off in my eyes. No more Glavine to shake his head at the Mets celebrating and no more hoping the umps are on our side when he starts. I for one, am happy.

* * *

Pitching pitching and more pitching...

Replacing the 200-1/3 innings that Glavine gave the Mets in 2007 will be the tougher of the two because the best free-agent starters - Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez - really don't belong at the top of a rotation. It will take a trade and though the Mets' farm system is shallow, Minaya believes there is enough to get someone who fits the description. He said he even is willing to combine major league players with prospects to get such a pitcher.

He added that he would rather go with Mets prospects than the available free agent arms. "I think Mike Pelfrey has very good potential to (match) what's out there and better," he said.

If the price is right, Silva and Lohse are not bad choices. They make the Mets younger and give them the precious innings that were vacated by Glavine. Also, the Mets are not necessarily looking for ace. They can do it with a solid rotation, good offense, and good bullpen as in 2006. They also have three pretty good pitchers at the front end in Pedro, Maine, and Perez. Ace material these days? No, but #2 to #3 types which is just fine in a consistent rotation.

And no, Blanton is not the right guy. Unless they are pitching for a power armed difference maker, why waste the prospects? Is he really that much better than what is out there?

The Angels pulled off a great trade to give them an excellent rotation and seems to be a precursor for another deal. Wood starting the year at short with Tejada at third seems about right to me.

Even Plan Z might be off the table this week in regards to the catching vacancy. Consider the Mets officially bent over. Though no GM would be advised to not make a deal because they could not rip the Mets off, but that is how many teams have dealt with the Mets over the years. Let's see if Omar can miraculously pull something off here without getting ripped off.

Tough Decisions On The Horizon

Peterson is never at a loss for an analogy and this article really brings up some interesting questions.

Fitting him into the September rotation is easy. Assuming the Mets make the playoffs, then does Martinez automatically get a first-round start? And if so, what does the rotation look like for the Division Series, when the Mets really only need three starters?

Based strictly on performance, Orlando Hernandez deserves to pitch Game 1 - the Mets haven't lost since July 4 with him on the mound - and Glavine would likely go in Game 2. That leaves the difficult decision of choosing between Martinez and two starters who helped get the Mets to the playoffs in John Maine and Oliver Perez. Both have cooled down in the second half. Maine has a 6.31 ERA after the All-Star break, Perez a 4.33, and Martinez could make it easier simply by outperforming them. If the competition is close, however, should Martinez definitely get the nod?

Glavine's 2nd half ERA is 3.89 and he obviously has the most extensive track record out of everyone. However, he is also the only starting pitcher who has pitched below league average this summer that would be considered for a playoff rotation spot. He also profiles least as a reliever which means he would basically have to be included in the post season rotation since he would not have value elsewhere.

It would be impossible to predict whether or not Pedro will have any impact, but you would have to believe that if he shows anything at all he will be included into the rotation. Quite the quandary indeed. Who is in and who is out? How could you possibly take a guy out of the post-season rotation who has been one of the best pitchers in the league in 2007? I'm not sure, but it has a strong chance of happening.

The likelihood of Pedro heading into the bullpen is slim for the simple fact that he probably would not have any part of that. It is really not something to get all worked up about yet since Pedro is still a pretty good ways away from making his '07 big league debut and he will not have many chances to prove he is back and healthy.

Personally, I would have a hard time putting Pedro in the rotation given the circumstances and I certainly believe he could be pretty tight out of the pen. You would not have to worry about stretching him out and he has pinpoint control so you would not have to worry about him walking many people, if any at all.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Let us hope a decision is made with sound reasoning rather than some logic revolving around and idealistic scenario that simply is not playing out in reality.

* * *

I'm not sure if I linked to this before, but if you have not seen it, enjoy.

Don't get Willie angry. You won't like Willie when he gets angry.

"Everything," Randolph said. "It was just a horrible game. The pitching didn't come through. Terrible situational hitting. It's a giveaway game and it can't happen. These guys play us tough here, but there's no excuse for it. To get a lead like that and not be able to put them away. Give them credit for battling back. I tip my hat to them. But there's no way we should lose a game like that."

It's good to see Willie get fired up a bit because it's a close race and it's midway through August. Every game is important at this point and you simply cannot give games away. And you cannot give them away especially when you factor into things the fragility of this team. A cushion is paramount for this to have in order to gain some level of comfort.

Interesting blurb which relates to my last post:

It's a shocker, consider Maybin has only been in double-A for a little over a week. But Jim Leyland is one manager who can make this work. He's a big believer in talent over experience. And Maybin is the most talented outfielder in that whole organization, with the possible exception of Curtis Granderson. They were looking for life and for energy, and this guy gives them those ingredients. I don't know if he's "ready," but I give the Tigers a lot of credit for having the guts to find out at a time like this - at the expense of a safe option like Monroe.

There is a guy who is not afraid to dive into the pool with a cell phone and some cold cuts (aka lunch meat to you non-tri-state area people) in his pockets. Trust the kids! You might actually get rewarded.

The Mets are #3 and the Yankees are #2 on BP's Hit List.

The dynamic duo of Perez and Maine need to step it up though and get back on track.

Marc Raimondi questions Willie's logic. Of course if they were still babying Pedro and were not interested in pushing him, I could understand why it worked out the way it did. But if they were past the babying stage and he was ready for full action, it was a mistake. I guess we'll never know...

Five years and $91.5 million. I think we all knew it was going to happen but were secretly hoping it didn't. With no other ace on the market and Curt Schilling not an exciting option, the Mets look like they will be going to battle with Perez, Maine, Pedro, The Duque, and Humber/Pelfrey.

Not that it is a horrible thing, but they might be a little thin in that area. Not that I think Omar won't be out there looking under every rock for a pitcher, but it's hard to envision him being able to snare someone that makes any sort of difference outside of being a warm body.

The Yankees are playing hard ball with A-Rod so far. If A-Rod opts out, Cashman said he's gone. I do not see how the Yankees could lose him because he is the sole reason they have any sort of shot at all this year. Hunter will not come close to replacing him and with Melky, I am not entirely sure they need to break the bank on him. If they do lose him (and I am hopeing they do), I would not be shocked if there were not playoffs for a few years.

Omar certainly should have the extra cash to make a big international signing and it looks like he just might do that.

When the international signing frenzy opened on July 2, no one thought there would be a $2 million man.

And then a Scott Boras client showed up in the Dominican Republic.

The Boras Corporation represents 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Edward Salcedo and is currently being courted by several clubs, with the Mets, Mariners and Yankees considered the frontrunners.

Negotiations for the 6-foot-2, 180-pound shortstop only began on July 30, when he turned 16 years old. According to several sources, Salcedo was seeking a signing bonus in the $4-5 million range, though he was expected to receive half that amount.

I'm shocked Boras took so long to jump into the fray.

“He projects to be the complete package,” said one international scouting director from a National League club. “He’s got plus range, arm strength and great hands at the position. He might have to move to third base at some point eventually, but he’s going to hit for average and power.”

If the Yankees reel him in, they would have had quite the haul between the draft and the international arena.

John Manuel weighs in on the Mets current draft trends:

Q: Greg from CT asks:

Why do the Mets have to be so cheap when it comes to over slotting? Second straight year they let a top talent go just because they were afraid of the commisioner’s office

A: John Manuel: I'm surprised the Mets have been so compliant. They also keep drafting relievers. It's an odd, surprising trend, no doubt. Just because the Yankees and Red Sox and Tigers spent doesn't mean the Mets should spend, but for me, teams should spend what THEY want to spend. Who should decide the value of a player--your scouts and talent evaluators, or the commissioner's office? If I owned a club, I would want the people I pay to make those determinations, not the commissioner's office.

Fun With Game Scores

There comes a time in everyone's life when they have to look into the mirror and admit something. As hard as it may be to face the truth sometimes, it needs to happen. For Tom, he needs to look in the mirror and admit he has lost a little something...or maybe a lotta something.

I know I am getting ahead of myself here since there is a lot of baseball to be played, but 'tis my nature. When the playoffs hit, I cannot help but think a certain pitcher with some porcelain veneers will be toeing the rubbing in game #1. That means he is the guy most likely to start more playoff games than any other Met. Those are not odds I'm prepared to take.

I'm a proponent of putting your best foot forward as obvious as that seems. When you are running in a race, you would be ill advised to start off sitting down, facing backwards, or parcheesi. But if Glavine starts because he is the 'ace' of the staff, that could spell bad news for the Mets.

For one, if there is a game #5 in the NLDS, the least effective Met pitcher would be trying to keep the Mets season going. I know there are legions of fans out there that would say they trust him in the playoffs, but I just point back the 'no such thing as clutch hitting' theory. Is it possible that someone actually pitches better than they are normally capable of just because it is the playoffs?

I would tend to think that anyone who has outstanding stats (or conversely for guys who struggled like Bonds had in the playoffs early on) are subject to sample size. While I think people can shrink in big games, others simply pitch to their ability. Is there any logical reason that Jeff Suppan is post-season beast? I do not think he rises to the occasion per se, but he goes out and has confidence and pitches to his ability. He only has 54 innings and his nice stats are probably just a result of sample size more than anything.

I would prefer not basing the game #1 starter on the false notion of rising to the occasion or past successes. I think Maine or Perez showed they can handle the pressure of the playoffs and if Mets want their best chance of winning, Maine and Perez should be heading the playoff rotation and they should be followed by The Duque and Glavine. By setting it up that way, you can ensure your three best starters are getting the first three starts of the first two series.

You simply cannot be worried about bruised egos and you simply cannot be living in the past. Maine and Perez have been outstanding for the Mets this year whereas Glavine seems like he is running on fumes. For some proof of the gap between their performances, let us look at the current Mets five starter's games scores. Game scores are a good way to slap a number on the overall effectiveness of a pitcher whereas a quality start is a yes or no thing. This gives you more depth.

           # of GSc over 50       % of GSc over 50
John Maine         13                  65%
Tom Glavine        10                  45%
Oliver Perez       13                  76%
Jorge Sosa          7                  54%
The Duque          11                  65%

A quality start is a score of 50 or above. Glavine has put up a non-quality start in more than half of his starts. Oliver Perez has gone from Mr. Inconsistent to just being the pantheon of consistency. Also, a stunning twelve of Maine's starts have been over 60 and eleven of The Duque's have been over 60. More than half of their starts have been flat out gems. In the playoffs, pitching wins out most of the time and the Mets best shot for a shut down game does not involve Glavine. I'm not giving up on Glavine and would not mind him starting in the playoffs and believe he should, but he should get less starts than the rest. Lately when he pitches I would rather be waxing the hair from around my nipples than watch him.

* * *

Milledge got hit for hot-dogging and Willie gave him what appeared to be a stern talking to for a hustle play...what a surprise! Was Lastings supposed to shun Reyes when he came out to celebrate yesterday? It took a perfect throw to get Milledge or else he would have been safe and it was a perfect throw. Sucks, but hardly a punishable offense. I wonder if he is going to get hit tomorrow for that fancy handshake with Paul LoDuca by the mound after the game.

Lastings has a bad reputation already and I'm not quite sure what he can do. He brushed himself off after getting hit for the second time in two games and ran to first with no looks or anything and that is what he needed to do. I guess the Pirates took more offense than they should have but again, they could always show him up by...you know...winning.

"I like to use the word colorful," Milledge said. "It's kind of like if you've got two TVs, and one's in color and the other one's in black-and-white, which one do you choose? Both are kind of the same thing, but the other one is kind of more appealing to the eye."

Overall though, Willie is not against Milledge and giving him reminders is not a bad thing. Hopefully he just keeps proving that he can be a spark for this team much in the way Pence and Braun have sparked their respective teams. I am by no means suggesting he will put up crazy numbers like them, but he can make a difference.

Why is Lee Mazzilli orange?

If Beltran is injured, he needs to rest. Pulled muscles are nothing to screw around with and pushing it can make it much worse. Rest Beltran and let Milledge roam center for a few days against these weaker teams so he can be ready for the Brewers and the Cubs.

I like the sound of Ted's jib. Milledge's stock is hotter than the 2003 version of Kelly Clarkson, but Omar would probably have to be bowled over at this point to move him.

I don't think Minaya is really counting on Pedro as much him just giving obvious answers to the media's questions. However, I am starting to get a bit leery of his return. I wasn't really counting on him to start the season and I let myself get mixed up in the hype and started thinking he would be back.

No need to rush Alou. As with Beltran, why rush him back and risk further injury for the dregs of the NL and with Milledge providing some firepower?

Adam Bostick had a nice start for the Zephyrs.

Caleb Stewart and the Double-A for lifer Brett Harper each went 2 for 4 with a homer in the B-Mets win over Altoona.

Nick Carr went five innings and gave up three hits, one earned run, three runs overall, and one walk while striking out nine for the Cyclones.

I know I have not been playing nice with Tom Glavine, but it is great to see him get win #299. If he does not win #300 on the road, I will dust off my Glavine jersey and head out to the stadium to support him and watch him go for 300.

I'm back and with me comes a win...coincidence?

I'm back in business for the foreseeable future. I had family in town from Colorado and then I had to head up to Newport, Rhode Island for a wedding. It was great, thanks for asking. While in Newport I was able to partake in what has been coined one of the twenty hamburgers you must eat before you die at the Spiced Pear. It is called the 'Not Just a Burger' and it wasn't just a burger and it was craptastic. It is 1/2 pounds of fresh ground Kobe beef stuffed with Kobe brisket. Just let that sink in..... Then it is served with caramelized red onion tomato jam and topped with Vermont white cheddar cheese and coleslaw.

Needless to say, it was good. Really good. The view didn't hurt either and it was a delightful culinary experience all around. In regards to the list, I've also had a White Mana burger (though not from the Hackensack location) and typically get a double bacon cheeseburger with a fried egg upon some drunken late night food runs. I need to make more of an inroad in the list as there are plenty of places close to me serving up tasty delights. Back to baseball though, this Met team looks light years away from last years baseball team. They are for more inconsistent in all facets than last years version and the bullpen is far, far worse.

It is good to see Lastings making his way back, but I just cannot see many positives at this point to take away. Mike Pelfrey continues to look like a minor league pitcher and the Mets overall pitching depth looks horrific. With Buehrle back on the market, you would have to wonder how the Mets do not make a hard push for him. However, I suspect Williams will be hard to deal with as usual and will be looking for young pitching. While the Mets could certainly deal one top pitching prospect, should they? Would Milledge even be appealing?

A big issue is one of draft pick compensation. No team that figures to be heavily involved with courting Buehrle is going be in the bottom fifteen. That means no first round pick. Do the Mets give up a premium chip for possibly 1/2 a year of Buehrle, a sandwich pick, and a second round pick? Does he even fix the Mets problem? Pedro and another starter into the mix allows Sosa and The Duque to move the pen which just might fix their problems entirely. Add in the prospect of Dave Williams contributing some meaningful innings and I think the Mets will go a long way to solidifying their spot as the NL's #1 team.

One thing is certain that after watching the Red Sox, Tigers, and Angels hit a bit of a lull, no team in the bigs right now stands out head and shoulders above the rest at this point. The Mets are frustrating, but they not far off. If the Mets have to overpay for a chip, so be it. The Mets are flawed and need some tweaking, but they are still big time contenders.

* * *

John Maine won for the tenth time this season is looks like he is going to make a run at twenty wins. If he does win twenty, he would be the first since Frank Viola in 1990. If Maine is going to pull it off, he'll need to pick it up as well as the Mets offense.

We officially have a bullpen problem. It's really ugly. So ugly I'd consider bringing in Scott Williamson. I say give him a workout in front of Rick Peterson to see if there is any chance he looks useful.

Of course, the Mets are looking into Hector Carrasco so they are predictably going to be looking at anybody and everybody.

Always looking for bullpen help, the Mets are "monitoring" reliever Hector Carrasco, who was designated for assignment by the Angels yesterday. Carrasco, 37, had a 6.57 ERA in 29 games this season. A Mets official said the club is checking with scouts to see if he might be an option worth exploring.

And you might as well forget about Duaner making any sort of comeback this season.

Duaner Sanchez, who is rehabbing from two shoulder operations in a span of nine months, was placed on the 60-day disabled list yesterday to make room on the 40-man roster for Alomar. Ricco said Sanchez recently picked up a baseball for the first time and still is a long way from returning.

You have to be on the big league roster prior to September to be included on the playoff roster, but that does not apply to people on the DL. Sanchez could be available for the playoffs even if he returns in September, but counting on him would just mean the bullpen situation has gotten that bad, which it just might become. Adding a guy to the playoff roster who would just be coming back after well over a year off would be a bad sign. The Mets need to start thinking outside the box here.

I'm still not holding my breath, but all of this has to be very encouraging. The Mets need some innings, which he will most likely not be able to provide. However, he does have the ability to chew off six innings with 80 pitches. He cannot be ridden hard, but his inclusion to the rotation will signal someone's exclusion where I think the biggest benefit will be. The only question is, who is the better candidate? Jorge Sosa or The Duque?

Rich Harden returns to the rotation this weekend and although Billy is a shrewd man, maybe he's ready to sell and not watch Harden follow the path of Kerry Wood. Beane may be ready to sell while he still can. Their rotation has been their strength and it has not included Rich Harden all season. For the Mets, we all know it's worth the upside. Even if Harden is used strictly out of the pen this season, it would be a huge boon for the Mets. This definitely warrants a conversation or twelve.

Mike Hargrove retiring mid-season while his team is exceeding expectations is truly a bizarre event. I'm not sure anyone could have seen that one coming and it will be interesting to see how the team responds...good or bad.

I'm just sayin'....

1.45 ERA and 0.85 WHIP
3.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP
1.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP

While Heath Bell was never going to get a chance here and the trades did not look bad at the time, I'm sure Omar would love to have a mulligan on those even if Owens has been out for a month.

I think Dave Williams is the likely choice despite the few innings he has pitched this year, but Phil is definitely in the mix. Alomar says he is ready and his last two starts were impressive, but he's not striking out a lot of people. If the Mets want to satiate some curiosity, he's the choice. If he comes up and tosses up a strong performance, he might get another shot at some point.

Bottom? Perhaps not.

I have not done this since last year and Jorge Sosa's performance this year got me to thinking about it. Benny had said that although Jorge's night against the Twins was ugly on paper, it was a lot of bloops and not many hard hit balls. He was basically intimating that although his ERA has ballooned and made a big jump, he's been pitching good.

Well, that is not the entire picture. Jorge has been solid and threw up quite a few sparkling games, but his ERA was not completely indicative of his performance and his current ERA is probably a better indication of just to what level of production he has been putting forth. His DIPS ERA is 4.40 compared to his 4.05 ERA. Basically, he is pretty much where he should be right now.

For those of you unfamiliar with DIPS, here is what ESPN says:

A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly. The DIPS ratios on ESPN use the DIPS 2.0 formula, are not park-adjusted, and do not adjust for knuckleball pitchers.

While it is primarily used to evaluate and predict the following season's success, it is a useful measure to see if anyone is possibly due for a regression or is really better than they have looked in the current season.

                   ERA  dERA  BABIP
Pedro #2          1.80  4.02  .217
Mr. Billy Wagner  2.15  3.10  .197
Joe Smith         2.40  2.95  .301
John Maine        2.90  4.09  .244
Oliver Perez      2.93  4.07  .235
Orlando Hernandez 3.08  4.48  .259
Jorge Sosa        4.05  4.40  .234
Aaron Heilman     4.18  4.78  .208
Tom Glavine       4.67  5.06  .278
Aaron Sele        5.26  4.24  .368
Guillermo Mota    6.00  3.77  .325
Scott S.          6.04  6.24  .264
Mike Pelfrey      6.53  5.35  .304

The bad news here is there seems to be a few overperformers here with a possible regression even further in the Mets starting pitching, but that is really not a huge surprise though since John Maine and Oliver Perez will probably not end up with sub 3.00 ERAs and Orlando Hernandez will not end up with one hovering around 3.00. It seems the only two guys truly appearing to be killing it are Wagner and Smith (but maybe not after tonight) with Pedro, Ollie, Maine, and The Duque being the biggest over performers. Of course this is not perfect and non-strikeout pitchers are at a severe disadvantage, but is interesting to take a look at.

In contrast, here are a few other guys to take a look at:

                ERA    dERA
Jake Peavy     1.98    2.16
Brad Penny     2.12    3.06
Chris Young    2.26    3.40
Justin Germano 2.36    3.93
Ian Snell      2.63    3.54
Rich Hill      2.70    3.69
Tom Gorzelanny 3.01    3.86

* * *

This is a sad commentary on the state of humanity.

[14:57] yankeescum: johan!
[14:59] me: ugly
[14:59] me: is baseball still even on?
[14:59] yankeescum: so they say
[15:00] me: unreal
[15:00] me: i don't even watch anymore
[15:01] yankeescum: probably best. my buddy here in the office is a big met fan and puts himself thru the agony of watching them every day
[15:03] me: i used to, but I'm too busy these days to really make a concerted effort. I mean they don't, why should I?

It's good to see someone of relative importance side with me on managers.

Managers tend to be interchangeable. Girardi has the right credentials, but so do many. Dave Trembley is an organizational guy who had a solid minor league resume, so there’s no rush here. We’re certain to hear several recycled names (Dusty Baker, Alan Trammell, Art Howe), but there’s also been some interest in guys you might not know as well like Chino Cadaiha or Trent Jewett or ones you do from different roles in Kirk Gibson or Dale Sveum.

Many are quick to defend Willie if (god forbid) I ever speak foully about him or suggest that the Mets progress over the past few years had little to do with him. I'll be the first to say that a bad manager can certainly cost you games. Willie has costs the Mets games, but I'm talking about someone that disturbs the clubhouse and creates a bad feeling. Even the 'worst' managers will be able to quasi competently navigate their way through a baseball game, but I do think there are a few that are top tier managers that can make a difference and put some wins on the board with their skillzzzzzz.

Bud Black is probably going to win Manager of the Year in 2007 and that is one that I'm sorry got away. If anyone remembers, he turned down an opportunity to interview for the Mets vacant position for whatever reason back in '04. He could have possibly preferred to stay on the West Coast, he could have not been ready yet, or he probably could have seen that Willie was the front runner because of his winning pedigree. Whatever the reason, he passed. However, is Bud Black even a good manager? I have no idea, but I know because his team is performing well in his first season he'll be the front runner. Judging managerial skills are largely subjective and it is really impossible to evaluate if one manager would have done better than another given the same team and the same situations so we are just left to argue about it...fun stuff!

I've always thought in the back of my mind that Dukes would be worth a shot if he wasn't going to cost much, but what's the point?

Speaking to hosts Ian Beckles and Ron Diaz, Dukes blasted estranged wife NiShea Gilbert for "stealing" his money and said if he hadn't left her "he'd be in prison because she provoked me." Dukes, who is the father of at least five children by four women, acknowledged sexual relations with a then-17-year-old foster child but denied he is the father of her unborn child. He passionately defended his mother against claims of drug use.

And he defiantly said that no matter how many "hyenas" try, "Nobody's going to bring me down with all these accusations they're making about me."

Dukes, who was playing cards in the clubhouse before Tuesday's game, declined to explain his reasons for going public when approached by a St. Petersburg Times reporter, saying: "F--- you, you know I'm not talking to you."

I can't argue with him not wanting to talk to the press after getting rake over the coals rightfully so or wrongfully so, but his delivery could have been a bit smoother around the edges and it really is just a microcosm for his entire being. He is just a kid with a huge chip on his shoulder and I'm not sure that headache is worth the upside.

This almost reads like an article from The Onion.

Some interesting thoughts on Slammin' Sammy and it looks like it's a pretty unanimous decision in regards to whether or not he is a Hall of Famer.

Yikes!

Missing persons: Through Tuesday, the Mets (Wright and Delgado), the Pirates (Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche), the Marlins (Dan Uggla and Miguel Cabrera) and the Padres (Adrian Gonzalez and Mike Cameron) were the only National League teams with two players with at least 60 strikeouts.

Carlos Gomez should be the starting left field right now. He should be run out there everyday except for some regular rest. You never know. Maybe he'll help provide a spark.

It's All About The Pitching

Tasty tidbits abound.

Bill New York, NY: What are chances of Zambrano being a Met come July?

SportsNation Jayson Stark: I don't see the Cubs selling, either. That's why I didn't put him on the Available Arms list in Rumblings. But if Zambrano hits the market this winter, I'd almost bet he'd be a Met. He's an Omar Minaya favorite, from what everybody tells me.

It's all about the pitching. The Mets outfield is set for quite a while as is the left side of their infield and first base should be covered as well. Only second base, catching, and the ever hot commodity of pitching are big needs for the Mets over the next six seasons. I think Omar has chosen to go the cheap route for second base and look for bargains that get the job done admirably. As for catching, I can see LoDuca coming back with a one year deal and an option while everyone figures that situation out (Pena is at least four years away...at least, probably five or even six). That truly leaves pitching as what Omar will covet and the last two drafts truly outline that and leaves boatloads of money to filter into pitching.

I've said it before, if I would condone five years $75 million for Zito, I would certainly be ok going higher on Zambrano, but with a ceiling. If the Yankees want to outbid the Mets no matter what, that is not something I would be interested in seeing the Mets do. With Kenny Williams new policy to not pay the crazy bucks that pitchers are getting these days and his desire to develop his own pitcher on the cheap, Mark Buehrle should be on the market after this season as well. Mark will arguably be the best pitcher dollar for dollar on the market next season, but we all know Omar's penchant to bring in power arms. Either way, the Mets should have a nice rotation option should the Yankees flex their almighty financial might. They would almost assuredly make a bigger run at either of those two than they did for Zito.

* * *

Oh baby. What happens if you snort it?

The comeback kids...

In the Year of the Comeback, only one team in baseball has more wins against opposing closers than Tampa Bay does (four) -- the A's (five).

The only criterion we used was games in which the opposing closer was the losing pitcher. (So blown saves and ties don't count.) Your leader board:

A's 5
Devil Rays 4
Mets 4
Red Sox 3
Yankees 3
White Sox 3
Cardinals 3

Also from the above link...

ESPN research whiz Mark Simon reports that El Duque Hernandez has ripped off five straight starts of six innings or more, allowing four hits or fewer. He needs one more to tie the team record, held by the very cool trio of Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan and Sid Fernandez. If you're wondering (and of course you're wondering), Tom Seaver's longest streak like that was three, and Dwight Gooden's longest was four.

The Duque has been so good for the Mets it is mind boggling. I expected him to be decent, but not this good.

Jorge Sosa! Sosa's 2.65 ERA and 0.99 WHP are just spectacular. When Pedro comes back, who is out of the rotation? The Duque? How can you? Maine, Perez, and Sosa each lead the team with six wins and have been amazing. Glavine? Not even a chance if we wasn't pitching good and he is. Again, they aren't necessarily planning on having Pedro come back, but if he does, it is going to be interesting.

Bump In The Road

If you think Mike Pelfrey got hit hard yesterday, I got hit even harder.

you guys disgust me.
~anonymous

Your arguments are so lame it's pathetic.
~anonymous

I did think that statement was kind of redundant by using lame and pathetic, but he could have been using the literary device of repetition to really drive the point of my lameness home.

This blog is a joke.
~anonymous

This one cut much deeper than the others.

you know i love your blog/writing/general attitude like we all love chuck norris, but dude you are fixating.
~jake

Et tu brute? Moose Knuckles is on borrowed time my man and we'll work this out on the virtual playing field.

Compare the whining on other Mets blogs and add the absence of idiocy for the most part on this one, I just don't see the crit.
~DG

Thanks...I think.

DG hit the nail on the head.
This blog owns.
~kenny

Kenny, I always thought you were one of the good ones. Now that all of that is out of the way, I'll go back to the issues at hand a bit battered and bruised, but still trudging along.

I was unable to watch the game, but Mike Pelfrey sure had his problems yesterday. I do not think many excuses could be made up like it was cold out or he was getting squeezed. I think he just flat out had a horrible game. This is three frustrating starts in a row now and though I do not think he should be pulled from the rotation, I'm sure the front office is thinking about it. If he fails to show any progress in another two starts, it would be hard to justify sending your top prospect out there game after game to get killed when he really needs to be working on stuff.

Jake, is this you?

Jake (VA Beach): I will NOT spoil 24 for you...this season has been disappointing so far though. Speaking of DISAPPOINTING...evidenced by his start this season and ESPECIALLY today...what's wrong with Mike Pelfrey. I thought he was a possible #1 and the Mets best pitching prospect??

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:12 PM ET ) Just had an IM from an irate Mets fan. The problem right now is that Pelfrey needs better secondary pitches. His curve was his third pitch in college, and his new slider doesn't seem to be making much of a difference. The Mets fan was lamenting a John Mabry homer off his change, so I guess that's not working either.

Though I am no scout, it certainly looked like his slider was pretty good at times, but it is clear things are not clicking. He simply is not getting enough swings and misses and is throwing entirely too many pitches. With Jorge Sosa having some major success at the AAA level and being one start off Pelfrey's spot, it makes sense to start thinking long and hard about seeing what he can offer this team. That by no means Pelfrey is done seeing Queens in 2007, but it certainly will not hurt to let him get some confidence and work on some stuff for a bit at this point for New Orleans. Pelfrey definitely has the ability to over match big league hitters, but he is getting over matched at this point and now might not be his time.

* * *

Jose Valentin is first in range factor out of all National League 2nd basemen. Hell, he's the only 2nd baseman in the big leagues with a range factor over 6.00.

Reyes the best lead off hitter in the league? Awww schucks. The best all around player in the universe? Swellicious.

"He's the best player in baseball," a National League front-office man said of Reyes. "Every tool is [rated] plus, and he can change a game in so many ways."

Based on his performance in 2006, quick start in April and the people hitting around him, a healthy Reyes appears to be a lock for 20 homers, 15 triples, 120 runs, 80 RBIs and 60 stolen bases. His on-base percentage, which spiked from .300 to .354 last season, continues to trend upward as his discipline and pitch recognition also improve.

It really never gets old reading things like that.

Fernando went 1 for 5 with a run scored in Binghamton's loss.

Chad Bradford is an excellent reliever, but I'll take Smith for $10,000,000 less.

Ramon Castro hopes to start next year for the Mets, but some people don't see that as happening.

One AL team executive, though, believes the Mets would pass on Castro as their starter. Also, an NL team executive said he believes Castro - who hit .238 with four homers and 12 RBIs in 126 at-bats last season - is not a starter.

He sure can rake in limited action though. If LoDuca would come back next year on a one year deal, which I'm sure he won't be satisfied with, I am all for a reduced roll for him with Castro getting more at-bats. Shit, that may be the way to go this year too.

Pedro Martinez is still in high spirits.

"I am super excited with how things are progressing. I feel as good as I did in 1996 and 1997," the 35-year-old ace told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

That is good to hear, but no one knows the extent to which he will return. However, he is one of the greatest of all time like Greg Maddux and can work with a reduced repertoire at a high level and adapt to whatever skills he has left. Of course there is always the chance he gains a few more MPHs on his fastball which is scary to think about. Either way, if he can just make it back, it will provide a huge boost to this team emotionally.

As Bookied pointed out, the Phillies are on fire. They are now four games out of first and are riding a five game winning streak. I think this is the type of team that will have stretches of really great and really bad ball. I do not think they are constructed all that great with the bottom of the lineup and back of the bullpen owning plenty of holes, but they may just be dumb enough to not recognize they are not the best team. This Philly team is not lacking in heart and just might give everyone fits afterall.

Smackdown

So how does the pitching situation look nowadays? Not so bad. Sure there are concerns with the two primary set-up men for the Mets, but the bullpen has enough arms that I'm confident something will fall into place. However, the big concern for the Mets (according to the entire world outside of the Mets organization) was their rotation and everything seems to be coming together.

Here's our read on the current state of the NL East: The Phillies are much more worried about their bullpen than the Mets are about their rotation. The Mets seem to have very few concerns about Mike Pelfrey or John Maine, and they'll take their chances on Oliver Perez. And Omar Minaya isn't second-guessing his lack of free-agent activity at all. "Our young pitchers at least have upside," Minaya says. "I don't know that the guys that were out there in the free-agent marketplace, aside from [Barry] Zito and [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, had upside."

While the naysayers will still whine about spring numbers this and spring numbers that, is it really that hard to envision that a 25 year old who used to be a highly touted prospect that put up a 1.13 whip, .212 BAA, and 3.60 ERA in his first full season will keep it going and {gasp}....get better? Is it hard to imagine that an elite prospect who already has one of the best pure fastballs in the league has found a handle on his secondary stuff? Is it hard to imagine that a guy that was entrenched in a poorly run franchise that screwed him up is now on the right track with a tightly run franchise?

No, no, and no. It's not that hard to see those things happening and it is not really something that needs the stars to align for that happen. These guys were not no names coming into the year. With Pelfrey, it wasn't a question of if, but when. That time seems to be now. With Maine, you just had to watch him last year to see that Omar stole him from the Orioles. He is not an ace, but has legit big league stuff. As for Perez, he was the biggest wildcard. He will still have his inconsistent moments, but his continual steps forward are enough to make a grown man shed a tear.

The fact of the matter is, Omar saw the talent that was out there. He set his pecking order and it just so happens that all his in house guys were right below the only two impact free agents on the market. First and foremost he is a talent evaluator and he seems to have a pretty good handle on that. Come mid season, people will be lauding him once again. The scary part is that he has been so right so far in his short tenure, he is due to be wrong in a big way one of these days....right?

* * *

Oliver Perez keeps up the solid pitching performances giving us all hope that the kid is back on track. Six innings of five hit, one run ball is amazing. But the best part of the night?

Jose Reyes scored four runs on three singles and a walk, with three stolen bases.

This kid is so ridiculously good it is scary.

We all know how Met fans chant "Yankees suck" arbitrarily at games that do not involve the Yankees. Lots of Met fans would get pissed because it makes the general populous look stupid since there was no relevance being the Yankees weren't even playing. Yankee fans would say that it's because Met fans are so consumed with the Yankees. It could also be that some douchebag was wearing a Yankee shirt. Who knows...it's a world of possibilities. Now? Well now it seems the Yankee fans are getting in on it.

In the bottom of the third last night, when David Wright came up, there was a chant of "A-Rod's bet-ter!"

Looks like some fans are getting a bit too consumed with the awesomeness that is the New York Mets. Believe it bitches.

Daisuke? Legit as fuck.

After watching Daisuke Matsuzaka pitch for the first time Wednesday, I couldn't tell you for sure that this guy is about to win 20 games, a Cy Young or possibly a Nobel Peace Prize.

But I can tell you this:

We've never had any foreign-born player come here with the ability to generate this much intrigue and this much fun.

I mean, you would think, after watching this guy pitch 5 2/3 one-hit innings Wednesday, from a vantage point no more than 75 feet from home plate, I could at least tell you how many different pitches he threw -- and, theoretically, what they were.

Nope. Sorry. I'm still not sure. But at least I wasn't the only one. I had scouts tell me they thought they saw four -- fastball, curve, slider, changeup.

I had a member of the Japanese media tell me it's more like seven -- four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, curve, slider, change, splitter and the mysterious "shuto" pitch. Not to be confused with the even more mysterious (not to mention fictitious) gyroball.

Normally, at times like this, you would just ask the hitters who had to face this man. Not in this case. In this case, they were even more confused than the eyewitnesses.

Sure it was the Pirates, but he confused everyone. He only allowed a single and only three more balls left the infield. Imagine the press in New York if the Yankees Golden Child had done that? If I had to put money on one guy throwing a no-hitter this year, it would be Daisuke. The article just goes on and on and on and on about how ridiculous he was. As good as he will be on the Red Sox this year, it is scary to think what type of silly numbers he would put up in the NL. His stats might have looked like something out of a video game.

Of course, the Yankee fans cannot handle it and have the following comments:

robcho (3/21/2007 at 11:20 PM)

I had what I thought was a bacon-cheeseburger today for lunch but it didn't look like your normal bacon-cheeseburger. The bacon was glowing and the lettuce did not seem to be the right color. I opened it up and saw things that just didn't look right. It left me baffled. I was so hungry I had to eat it. I did. In the end, it was just another bacon-cheeseburger. Translation, this column was about as interesting and my bacon-cheeseburger. Please have ESPN make sure to cover the event when the Red Sox deliver him into Fenway Park on a helicopter too. What will ESPN write about when Dice-K goes around the league a 2nd time? Oh, it turns out he's the right-handed version of Zach Duke?

No offense to anyone involved, but he threw well in a spring training game against a line-up of tomato cans from a perrenial doormat team. If he's this mystifying in Yankee Stadium in July, call me a believer.

Let me start off by saying that first comment was an insanely horrible analogy. I mean, really horrible. Aside from that, you can point to the obvious that is was a bad team, it is spring, and no one has seen him repeatedly, but to deny the fact he is filthy is just silly. The above two are so out of touch they would probably rather have Philip Hughes. It is not the first time we are hearing about this guy and he does what good pitchers have to do to succeed. He keeps hitters off balance. If he keeps doing that, I don't see how you catch up to a guy who throws six or pitches and changes speed with the best of them. Daisuke is the real deal.

From the link in the main piece at the top:

evan0238 (3/21/2007 at 8:55 PM)

uhhh anyone noticing how the O's might be this years sleeper team. we have 2 potential aces in bedard and cabrera and Chris Ray at closer. plus we got up and comming superstar nick markakis!

There are optimistic O's fans! Although, there certainly is a thin line between optimistic and delusional.