A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Tough Decisions on Tap

With The Duque looking worse by the day, the Mets have some serious decisions to make. They could run into the season with what they have and let Pelfrey have the fifth spot and they can hope The Duque will provide depth at a later date. Or, they can try and nip this thing in the ass right away and tell Pelfrey his time to shine will have to wait until someone gets hurt.

The buzz going around that Lohse can be nabbed for someone between $4 million and $10 million dollars for a one year contract. Since 2002, he posted an ERA+ of 105, 98, 89, 106, 78, and 100. Obviously one year is way out of the line and the others are very 2007 Tom Glavine-esquely average. He went from being a guy who was looking for a ridiculous contract that was way out of line with what it should have been to a guy who is a veritable bargain. Scott Boras overplayed his hand and a guy who should have easily had a job if they were reasonable from the start is now not doing much of anything.
              Glavine vs. Lohse in '07
ERA K/9 k/bb Batting Against Inn ERA+
Glavine 4.45 4.00 1.39 .281/.338/.438 200.1 96
Lohse 4.63 5.70 2.14 .279/.339/.447 192.2 100
I am fully aware that Glavine was a far better pitcher in prior to 2007 and I am kind of cherry picking numbers here, but you get what I'm saying. One guy was good enough for a $8 million dollar one year contract and a first round draft pick and the other guy is getting the Jose Canseco/Sammy Sosa/Barry Bonds treatment. If I were him, I would fire Boras right away and maybe he would get some work. Lohse was grossly mishandled and now he is sitting home instead of trying to gain some consistency in his career.

Furthermore, at 29, there is surely room for growth. He also posts decent k/bb ratios and strikes out enough people to satisfy me. I am torn for sure because I want the Duque in the bullpen and Mike Pelfrey in the rotation. However, the only problem with that is there is no depth that does not really compromise the bullpen if The Duque is pitching effectively from there and I think he will. With Lohse in the mix, Pelfrey is the #6 guy and The Duque is the emergency #7 guy with Vargas, Sosa, etc. as the shit hitting the fan group.

If anything, this current rash of injuries should make the Mets front office seriously consider bringing in too many pitchers to the fold. If someone goes down, the Mets will be in trouble. Who can they dish off to get anyone who is worth anything? Sure they can take a look at the scrapheap, but there are certainly better options.

If anything, the extra depth gives the Mets at least something to deal at the break if they needed to upgrade their team in other areas. Lohse could be dished off with no commitment following him and Pelfrey could take over mid year so they can monitor his usage over the course of the first half. At $40 million over four years, not taking Lohse is a no brainer. At $5 to $8 million over one season, it is a no brainer to go after him. With one more season like 2007, he also stands a pretty good chance of giving whomever picks him up a sandwich pick.

The Mets are primed for some pretty great things this season. To see them evaporate because of depth would truly be shame. When it was cost prohibitive it was one thing. However, Lohse is set to be a bargain in baseball terms and bargains make you rethink your original plans.

* * *

  • Mike Pelfrey continues to do the right things.

    Mike Pelfrey allowed two hits, including an infield hit, and retired six batters on groundouts while pitching three scoreless innings in his second start of the spring.

    A strikeout would not kill the kid, but the six groundballs is very nice.

  • Ruben might be more injured than than anyone previously thought. Not good for Gotay.

  • John Donovan is drinking the Pedro Martinez Kool-Aid and why not? Again, Pedro is not the first guy to get surgery. If he did not have a nice five game stint at the end of '07, I would be leery. But he came back before anyone thought he did and did much better as well.

    Now, he is back in a Mets uniform and looking sharp. I have high expectations for him this season. Yes, I doubt he will toss 200 innings, but that is fine. 180 innings is more in line with what I'm expecting. We all have to remember he has the ability to be very economical with his pitches and get through 6+ innings with 90 pitches.

  • I think Wallace Matthews is trying to pull a fast one by switching his name around. Thanks for the shitty article.

  • Cory Patterson is now a Red. The man's line in the bigs is .258/.298/.414. He looked like a star in the making, but that never happened. Dusty Baker had been calling for him and now he has him, which means Jay Bruce is likely out. The fact is, if this team truly thinks they have a shot at the NL Central or the Wildcard, Bruce should be in.

    If they truly do not believe that, then this move is just fine. For me, I think Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Votto are enough wildcards that give me pause before I say this team has no chance. The fact is, there is upside there. Arroyo, Harang, Bailey, and Cueto could potentially be a nice front four with Fogg and Affeldt still in the mix. Their bullpen could be greatly improved as well if Volquez and Affeldt are in there as well.
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    21 Comments:

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    I like Lohse, I don't like Lohse, but Lohse would be the 5th starter. Pitching at Shea should better his totals in regards to strikeouts and giving up homers. Reyes, Wright, Castillo, and Beltran, should help him out in the outfield as well.

    Curvb the enthusiasm on Pelfrye, he was great during spring training last season as well.

    I was very dissapointed in Mathews' article. That seems more in line with a silly blog post from someone trying to cute and clever than something a man should be getting paid to write.

    If I'm the Reds I wait so I cna hold onto Bruce for another year. ALot of things have ot go right for the Reds to win a division.

    10:04 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Lohse would be indeed be the fifth starter and he was league average outside of '06. The Mets could have a league average guy that gives 200 innings from the 5th spot.

    Just let that sink in. Pelfrey nor The Duque guarantee that one. It is actually pretty nuts. And he still added 4 wins in '07. 4 wins on the free agent market costs way over what Lohse might get.

    You take that bargain and run with it. Also, he gets to earn a contract on a team he can win 10+ games with and play with a great defense.

    I am on the Pelf bandwagon. You cannot stop me!!!

    If I'm the Reds I wait so I cna hold onto Bruce for another year. ALot of things have ot go right for the Reds to win a division.

    Right, but if THEY think they have legit chance. Frankly, they could be good if they let their kids play. Encarnacion, Votto, Bruce...All very good. Phillips is a stud. Griffey is still productive. Their pitching is an X-factor. They could be better than expected.

    10:49 AM

     
    Blogger Rickey Henderson said...

    One more solid outing from Pelfrey and Willie will HAVE to give him serious consderation for a starting spot, right? ...right?!

    11:25 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    It's Willie. All reasoning gets tossed out the window.

    11:43 AM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    I was totally against Lohse for 4/40M (for anyone - not just the Mets) after watching him pitch a lot last Summer here in Cincy. I thought that was a joke and the market proved it to be true. Lohse for 1 year at 8M? I'm on that bandwagon! That is totally in line with his value and a good deal for both parties. I hope they do it because he is the best FA out there and they sure as hell aren't going to be able to trade for depth any time soon.

    What is this crap Buster Olney is writing about "suggeting" the Mets could consider Mientkiewicz as a back up 1B? Is he smoking really shitty crack? Does he have an IQ of a tomato? Shit like that annoys me no end.

    The Reds and Patterson made no sense to me except from a business point of view. They keep control of Bruce for another year by keeping him back for a few months. But this seems to be a good owner here now, so if Patterson is Patterson, i.e., he sucks, and Bruce is Bruce, he will be up here in no time. It sucks that they play it that way. I've only been here a few years and I haven't seen Cincy as the fabled baseball town I thought it would be, but one really good season could turn that around. I'd love to see this place wake up before I get the hell out of here.

    11:52 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Buster is nuts. He is just out of control lately. I cannot believe I used to like him.

    The Reds are not poor. They have to be less sensitive to the clock starting than other teams. I just hate the move and it is compounded by the fact that Baker wanted him. What is there to want? A sub .300 OBP? Crazy talk. He should not be starting if you have any other options.

    12:31 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    Did Pelf had one swing and miss yesterday? i didnt see many, I'm not sure he had one.

    its nice he's not getting rocked, I hear that for sure. but I'm not uber-excited by what i've seen so far.

    The lack of swings n misses will burn him when the season starts just like it did last year.

    Him doing what he's doing in ST means very little to me. He did the same thing last year.

    12:57 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    oh and why is our draft so early!?!?!?

    3/9!??!? craziness. This will be the league i do no prep for i guess ;) LOL

    12:58 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I could not do it the week after. Blame me. It's up to Benny if we move it back.

    I hope you do no prep. I don't do any either and it evens the playing field a bit.

    Pelf got more swing and misses as the year went on last year. My excitement has little to do with two spring starts than last year.

    1:19 PM

     
    Blogger Itsmetsforme said...

    If this keeps up, scott bora$ will be working part time at the public library and living out of the back of a chevy celebrity, selling his craftware in the subway station.

    Yes, who is this matthew wallace fella? The newsday talent stable just got a bit bigger.

    1:33 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    There must be plenty of heebs out there who enjoy that crap. How else can these people have jobs? Ridiculous!!!

    I read on MLBTraderumors that Boras charges 5% and undercuts everyone else...anyone else hear something like that?

    1:50 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    yea i've heard the Boras 5% too.

    No prep it is! I like it! I wont even look at categories till draft day. you got it! :)

    2:28 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Well, I didn't say that. I mean, crack a beer and spend an hour or two. You have an hour or two, don't you?

    2:43 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    hahaha, you kinda did say none! ;)

    Yea, I got a few hours to kill, no worries. I'll be ready! :)

    3:23 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I can smell the fear now. I just lulled everyone into a sense of security with my terrible finish last year and this year, no one will see me coming...

    4:09 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    I prepped so much last year, I don't have to prep for this year either.
    So we have 3 on the "no prep" train?
    I can't wait to see Chris Carpenter go i nthe 3rd round!

    4:30 PM

     
    Anonymous Chris said...

    Prep?

    What is this "prep" of which you speak?

    6:25 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    As you guys have said Lohse would create much needed depth and eat up innings at a bargain price, but I wonder how much budget room Omar has to work with and if he is trying to remain flexible for moves within the season.

    Gotay’s injury could cast him out of the Mets picture for this season and possibly beyond if Willie remains as Mets manager.

    At the rate El Dugue is going if he is banished to the BP they may have to reinstate using the cart to drive him out to the mound. He could use HGH and Roids right about now and he is not the only one (see Delgado).

    I have to wonder if Willie stresses physical fitness since some of the Mets appear as if they can’t pass a fast food restaurant without super-sizing everything.

    I don’t pay much attention to early spring performances. Players off of winter baseball have a head start and talent level in the games consist of guys getting into baseball shape and 4 A players and younger trying to impress.

    Ollie should rethink his relationship with Boras. If he has another good year it might be to OP’s benefit to remain with RP as his pitching coach. It doesn’t sound as if Boras even considers such options.

    9:22 PM

     
    Anonymous Chris said...

    FYI, FJM has a little fun with the Matthew Wallace (sic) piece this morning ...

    8:54 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    What is FJM? I think I'm dumb.

    10:46 AM

     
    Anonymous Chris said...

    Not dumb, just blinded by too many acronyms. Fire Joe Morgan.

    1:45 PM

     

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