Mets vs. Yankees 2008

Let us take a little quick and dirty look at the Mets and the Yankees.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
RF Ryan Church    29   131  10   2.5  114   19   5.4
CF Carlos Beltran 31   150  38    11  126   27   8.4
LF Moises Alou    41   132  15     4  138   12   3.7
total                       63  17.5        58  17.5

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
RF Bobby Abreu     34  126  28    3   114  19   4.8
CF Melky Cabrera   23   95  13  3.1    89  13   4.4
LF Johnny Damon    34  115  22    4    97  15   3.5
?? Hideki Matsui   34  128   6  2.3   123  17     4
total                       69 12.4        64  16.7

Basically, the Mets outfield is far better. I even added an extra player on the Yankees end and the 2007 numbers from the Mets compare favorably despite Alou only playing in 84 games. The Mets could quite conceivably have all three of their outfielders be more valuable and more productive than any of the four Yankee outfielders. Furthermore, two Yankee outfielders posted a sub .400 SLG% which is just terrible. Barring a breakout year from Melky and Abreu discovering his 2002 form again, this is no contest.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
1B Carlos Delgado 36   131  24   4.8   103  14   4.7
2B Luis Castillo  32    93  17   2.2    91  14   2.1
SS Jose Reyes     25   115  29   4.1   103  24   7.3
3B David Wright   25   133  32   7.3   150  34  10.6
C  Schn / Castro     72/83  12   4.3 77/127 17   4.8
total                      102  22.7        86  29.5

                    2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
1B Jason Giambi   37   148  23   5.9   108   6     5
2B Robinson Cano  25   126  18   7.1   120  21   9.2
SS Derek Jeter    34   132  33   9.1   121  24   6.1
3B Alex Rodriguez 32   134  25   5.2   177  39    11
C  Jorge Posada   36   122  24   7.5   154  26   8.2
total                      123  34.8       116  39.5

Predictably this was not all that close given the huge difference in talent at second and behind the plate for the Yankees. Giambi and Delgado are not as bad as people are making them out to be and first, short, and third are basically a push for me. I do think Posada is going to lose quite a bit of production, but still be far more valuable than the Mets tandem. Of course the Yankees need mega production from their infield because their outfield is going to be one of the worst offensive outfields from any contender.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Johan Santana      29  161  25  10.8  130   18   9.1
Oliver Perez       26   67   6   0.1   120  11   3.7
John Maine         27  121   5   2.4   109  11   5.2
Pedro Martinez     36   97   5   2.5   166   2   0.9
The Duque          42   96   6   3.2   115  10   4.3
total                       47    19        52  23.2

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Chien-Ming Wang   28   124   17  7.9   121  16   7.5
Andy Pettitte     36   106   12  5.2   110  14     6
Phil Hughes       22    -          -   100   4   1.8
Ian Kennedy       23    -          -   236   2   3.2
Mike Mussina      39   129   15  6.7    87   6   3.2
total                        44 19.8        43  20.3

This was a tough one given the two rookies in the Yankee rotation, but I think both will do decent. However, counting on them for oodles and oodles of innings while not going through any growing pains just does not seem right to me. Even if you say Joba and Kennedy are going to switch roles later in the year, which I do not expect to happen, giving them a fresh arm and thereby limiting any potential growing pains, I expect the Mets rotation to be far more balanced, far more consistent, and flat out better. The Mets rotation is one of the top rotations in the league and feature three 15 game winners. Sure the Yankees could have three fifteen game winners, but that would be more of a function of offense then pitching. Giving the Yankees the edge here would be a stretch.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Billy Wagner      36   195  12   6.5   162  11   5.1
Aaron Heilman     29   120   8   3.4   140   9   4.1
Pedro Feliciano   31   209   8   3.8   138   6   2.3
Duaner Sanchez    27   168   6   2.4    -         -
total                       34  16.1         26 11.5

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Mariano Rivera    38   251  14   8.3   142   9   5.5
Kyle Farnsworth   32   104   4   2.7    93   3   0.9
Latroy Hawkins    35   102   4   1.6   140   5   2.6
Joba Chamberlain  22    -          -  1192   4   1.8
total                       22  12.6        21  10.8

Joba's 1192 ERA+ will not last, but it is hard to say he will not be the one of the best set up men, if not the best, in the bigs. I say I give the Yankees the edge on their closer and main set up man, but the Mets pull ahead with their #3 and #4 guys. Also, the Mets top two are not exactly chopped liver and are elite pitchers in their genre as well. I give bullpen the edge to the Mets slightly because of their depth, but the Yankees do have some room for growth here if Hawkins is solid again and a guy like Ohlendorf or Ramirez steps up. I think both bullpens have the potential to be very good.

Top to bottom, the Mets are a slightly better team by my crude estimation. If Hughes and Kennedy both have Verlander-esque rookie seasons while Joba does his best Zumaya impression, the Yankees could pull ahead because they do have a better offense. Basically, both New York teams are very good and many call the Yankees the second best team slightly behind Red Sox. That makes the Mets right behind the Red Sox as well as the second or third best team in the majors. I like the Tigers in the fourth spot slightly ahead of the Indians, but I need to see their rotation hold it together before I start saying they are as good as the well balanced Met and Yankee teams.

My top fifteen teams:

Elite
1) Red Sox
2) Mets
3) Yankees
4) Tigers
5) Indians

Studs
6) Cubs
7) Angels
8) Dodgers
9) D-Backs
10) Blue Jays
11) Braves

On the bubble
12) Phillies (cry me a river Philly fans about how you won the division and deserve some respect)
13) Milwaukee
14) Mariners
15) San Diego (not only does San Diego mean whale's vagina, but their offense is going to be atrocious)

Before anyone starts complaining, the teams within each category are pretty close to being interchangeable for me. As for the Rockies, they are just not on the list. I'm not seeing how they are better than any of those teams. Their historic run was fun and all, but they are an 84 win team.

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It is fantasy baseball time. Please email Benny or myself if you are interested in joining the league. First come, first served. Also, Benny sent invites to a few people who have not accepted. If you are not accepting because you fear my insane Fantasy Baseball skills, let us know so we can ask other people.

Rob Neyer keeps laying it on thick.

Jason (NYC): Speaking of Nate Silver's PECOTA, did you see the Mets with 96 wins :) I'm extra giddy.

Rob Neyer: Yeah, and you should be giddy. They added the best pitcher in the world to the best team in the National League. If there's one team that's most likely to win 100 games this season it's the Mets.

They are good. Very good.

Ossy brought up an interesting point. He said Fukodome should start off batting 7th and earn his way up. However, we have a pretty good idea of how he should fare based on past performance in Japan, looking at other Japanese players who came, over etc. Of course, we can extend this to minor leaguers as well.

John (San Diego): MLEs?

Rob Neyer: Major League Eqivalencies, John. Based on minor-league stats. Big part of the literature.

Simply said, we should have a pretty good idea of how these players should fare. These are all humans and things can happen like not being able to perform on a certain stage, but if a team has a need and a player profiles well in regards to fitting that need, why play games and bat them 7th and have them earn their way up? Why not let them have the spot from day #1 and adjust as needed later?

David Wright has been the best hitter on the team since midway through 2005. The fact that he was not batting higher than fifth with any regularity until midway through the 2007 is absolutely laughable. If the skill is there, why not let them add meaningfully from day one?

The Cubs have a serious OBP issue. They were 9th in the NL in OBP, got a .341 OBP from the #1 spot, and a .336 from the #2 spot. Fukudome has a .406, .401,. 367, .430, .438, and .443 OBP over the past six seasons. That is insanely good. He certainly seems like a guy that can fill a need and he may not be used to do it. Instead, he will miscast as the 5th hitter to break up some righties despite the fact he is not going to hit with much homer power. This all seems elementary to me and I see no reason to screw around. Get it right from day one.

I guess I need to change the name of this here blog.

Were the Mets ever officially called the Metropolitans? Or is this just a common mistake among fans? We're having a two-day argument at work about this and would really appreciate a resolution.
-- Daniel G., Astoria, N.Y.

The New York Metropolitan Baseball Club Inc. once was the corporate name. Mets was the team name. People would refer to them as the Metropolitans in much the same way that folks refer to Mookie Wilson as William. The corporate name now is Sterling Mets, LP. It had been Sterling Doubleday Enterprises, LP.

Whoa, whoa, whoa....slow down Fernando.

"This year," Martinez said, "you'll see me."

Well isn't everyone just brimming with confidence these days? I like confidence, but I do think there is such a thing as too much confidence.

Ken Rosenthal lists nine things to watch and none of them happened to be the Mets. Frankly Mr. Rosenthal is a silly little man because the Mets are the story. Also, he could have spoken about the parity of the NL. Four fresh teams could be hitting the playoffs this season and that is certainly impressive.

In a perfect world, Willie would be trying to get a job elsewhere and Gary would be the manager. Do I know he can coach? No, but I know Willie can not.

Though I think players are babies for complaining about the Mets propensity to celebrate, I am glad Reyes is shelving it if only to concentrate more on just playing.

Strangely enough, I think Willie hit the nail on the head.

"I'm sure he might have heard people say that other teams were upset about it and it was too much," Randolph said. "But that's stuff that Jose doesn't think about. We don't think about it. When we're having fun, and the kids are expressing themselves, they're not thinking that they're showing anyone up. They don't even know someone is looking at them.

"No one should be looking at them, really. The fans notice it, the media might see it, but if I'm on the other side, if I need to concern myself with that, your head's in the wrong place."

Good stuff. Omar also has the right outlook.

Added Minaya: "I think the beauty of Jose is the joy that he plays with. But that's his decision. I would never encourage him not to do it. It's just that when things don't go well, people highlight stuff like that."

Brandon Inge wants no part of catcher and wants to play third base. So it looks like he might be traded.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, Justin Huber either makes the Royals squad or finds a new home. I would love to have him back and it is just nuts that he has not gotten a chance yet.