A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Mets vs. Yankees 2008

Let us take a little quick and dirty look at the Mets and the Yankees.
                       2006            2007
AGE OPS+ WS Warp1 OPS+ WS Warp1
RF Ryan Church 29 131 10 2.5 114 19 5.4
CF Carlos Beltran 31 150 38 11 126 27 8.4
LF Moises Alou 41 132 15 4 138 12 3.7
total 63 17.5 58 17.5

2006 2007
AGE OPS+ WS Warp1 OPS+ WS Warp1
RF Bobby Abreu 34 126 28 3 114 19 4.8
CF Melky Cabrera 23 95 13 3.1 89 13 4.4
LF Johnny Damon 34 115 22 4 97 15 3.5
?? Hideki Matsui 34 128 6 2.3 123 17 4
total 69 12.4 64 16.7
Basically, the Mets outfield is far better. I even added an extra player on the Yankees end and the 2007 numbers from the Mets compare favorably despite Alou only playing in 84 games. The Mets could quite conceivably have all three of their outfielders be more valuable and more productive than any of the four Yankee outfielders. Furthermore, two Yankee outfielders posted a sub .400 SLG% which is just terrible. Barring a breakout year from Melky and Abreu discovering his 2002 form again, this is no contest.
                       2006            2007
AGE OPS+ WS Warp1 OPS+ WS Warp1
1B Carlos Delgado 36 131 24 4.8 103 14 4.7
2B Luis Castillo 32 93 17 2.2 91 14 2.1
SS Jose Reyes 25 115 29 4.1 103 24 7.3
3B David Wright 25 133 32 7.3 150 34 10.6
C Schn / Castro 72/83 12 4.3 77/127 17 4.8
total 102 22.7 86 29.5

2006 2007
AGE OPS+ WS Warp1 OPS+ WS Warp1
1B Jason Giambi 37 148 23 5.9 108 6 5
2B Robinson Cano 25 126 18 7.1 120 21 9.2
SS Derek Jeter 34 132 33 9.1 121 24 6.1
3B Alex Rodriguez 32 134 25 5.2 177 39 11
C Jorge Posada 36 122 24 7.5 154 26 8.2
total 123 34.8 116 39.5
Predictably this was not all that close given the huge difference in talent at second and behind the plate for the Yankees. Giambi and Delgado are not as bad as people are making them out to be and first, short, and third are basically a push for me. I do think Posada is going to lose quite a bit of production, but still be far more valuable than the Mets tandem. Of course the Yankees need mega production from their infield because their outfield is going to be one of the worst offensive outfields from any contender.
                       2006            2007
AGE ERA+ WS Warp1 ERA+ WS Warp1
Johan Santana 29 161 25 10.8 130 18 9.1
Oliver Perez 26 67 6 0.1 120 11 3.7
John Maine 27 121 5 2.4 109 11 5.2
Pedro Martinez 36 97 5 2.5 166 2 0.9
The Duque 42 96 6 3.2 115 10 4.3
total 47 19 52 23.2

2006 2007
AGE ERA+ WS Warp1 ERA+ WS Warp1
Chien-Ming Wang 28 124 17 7.9 121 16 7.5
Andy Pettitte 36 106 12 5.2 110 14 6
Phil Hughes 22 - - 100 4 1.8
Ian Kennedy 23 - - 236 2 3.2
Mike Mussina 39 129 15 6.7 87 6 3.2
total 44 19.8 43 20.3
This was a tough one given the two rookies in the Yankee rotation, but I think both will do decent. However, counting on them for oodles and oodles of innings while not going through any growing pains just does not seem right to me. Even if you say Joba and Kennedy are going to switch roles later in the year, which I do not expect to happen, giving them a fresh arm and thereby limiting any potential growing pains, I expect the Mets rotation to be far more balanced, far more consistent, and flat out better. The Mets rotation is one of the top rotations in the league and feature three 15 game winners. Sure the Yankees could have three fifteen game winners, but that would be more of a function of offense then pitching. Giving the Yankees the edge here would be a stretch.
                       2006            2007
AGE ERA+ WS Warp1 ERA+ WS Warp1
Billy Wagner 36 195 12 6.5 162 11 5.1
Aaron Heilman 29 120 8 3.4 140 9 4.1
Pedro Feliciano 31 209 8 3.8 138 6 2.3
Duaner Sanchez 27 168 6 2.4 - -
total 34 16.1 26 11.5

2006 2007
AGE ERA+ WS Warp1 ERA+ WS Warp1
Mariano Rivera 38 251 14 8.3 142 9 5.5
Kyle Farnsworth 32 104 4 2.7 93 3 0.9
Latroy Hawkins 35 102 4 1.6 140 5 2.6
Joba Chamberlain 22 - - 1192 4 1.8
total 22 12.6 21 10.8
Joba's 1192 ERA+ will not last, but it is hard to say he will not be the one of the best set up men, if not the best, in the bigs. I say I give the Yankees the edge on their closer and main set up man, but the Mets pull ahead with their #3 and #4 guys. Also, the Mets top two are not exactly chopped liver and are elite pitchers in their genre as well. I give bullpen the edge to the Mets slightly because of their depth, but the Yankees do have some room for growth here if Hawkins is solid again and a guy like Ohlendorf or Ramirez steps up. I think both bullpens have the potential to be very good.

Top to bottom, the Mets are a slightly better team by my crude estimation. If Hughes and Kennedy both have Verlander-esque rookie seasons while Joba does his best Zumaya impression, the Yankees could pull ahead because they do have a better offense. Basically, both New York teams are very good and many call the Yankees the second best team slightly behind Red Sox. That makes the Mets right behind the Red Sox as well as the second or third best team in the majors. I like the Tigers in the fourth spot slightly ahead of the Indians, but I need to see their rotation hold it together before I start saying they are as good as the well balanced Met and Yankee teams.

My top fifteen teams:

1) Red Sox
2) Mets
3) Yankees
4) Tigers
5) Indians

6) Cubs
7) Angels
8) Dodgers
9) D-Backs
10) Blue Jays
11) Braves

On the bubble
12) Phillies (cry me a river Philly fans about how you won the division and deserve some respect)
13) Milwaukee
14) Mariners
15) San Diego (not only does San Diego mean whale's vagina, but their offense is going to be atrocious)

Before anyone starts complaining, the teams within each category are pretty close to being interchangeable for me. As for the Rockies, they are just not on the list. I'm not seeing how they are better than any of those teams. Their historic run was fun and all, but they are an 84 win team.

* * *
  • It is fantasy baseball time. Please email Benny or myself if you are interested in joining the league. First come, first served. Also, Benny sent invites to a few people who have not accepted. If you are not accepting because you fear my insane Fantasy Baseball skills, let us know so we can ask other people.

  • Rob Neyer keeps laying it on thick.

    Jason (NYC): Speaking of Nate Silver's PECOTA, did you see the Mets with 96 wins :) I'm extra giddy.

    Rob Neyer: Yeah, and you should be giddy. They added the best pitcher in the world to the best team in the National League. If there's one team that's most likely to win 100 games this season it's the Mets.

    They are good. Very good.

  • Ossy brought up an interesting point. He said Fukodome should start off batting 7th and earn his way up. However, we have a pretty good idea of how he should fare based on past performance in Japan, looking at other Japanese players who came, over etc. Of course, we can extend this to minor leaguers as well.

    John (San Diego): MLEs?

    Rob Neyer: Major League Eqivalencies, John. Based on minor-league stats. Big part of the literature.

    Simply said, we should have a pretty good idea of how these players should fare. These are all humans and things can happen like not being able to perform on a certain stage, but if a team has a need and a player profiles well in regards to fitting that need, why play games and bat them 7th and have them earn their way up? Why not let them have the spot from day #1 and adjust as needed later?

    David Wright has been the best hitter on the team since midway through 2005. The fact that he was not batting higher than fifth with any regularity until midway through the 2007 is absolutely laughable. If the skill is there, why not let them add meaningfully from day one?

    The Cubs have a serious OBP issue. They were 9th in the NL in OBP, got a .341 OBP from the #1 spot, and a .336 from the #2 spot. Fukudome has a .406, .401,. 367, .430, .438, and .443 OBP over the past six seasons. That is insanely good. He certainly seems like a guy that can fill a need and he may not be used to do it. Instead, he will miscast as the 5th hitter to break up some righties despite the fact he is not going to hit with much homer power. This all seems elementary to me and I see no reason to screw around. Get it right from day one.

  • I guess I need to change the name of this here blog.

    Were the Mets ever officially called the Metropolitans? Or is this just a common mistake among fans? We're having a two-day argument at work about this and would really appreciate a resolution.
    -- Daniel G., Astoria, N.Y.

    The New York Metropolitan Baseball Club Inc. once was the corporate name. Mets was the team name. People would refer to them as the Metropolitans in much the same way that folks refer to Mookie Wilson as William. The corporate name now is Sterling Mets, LP. It had been Sterling Doubleday Enterprises, LP.

  • Whoa, whoa, whoa....slow down Fernando.

    "This year," Martinez said, "you'll see me."

  • Well isn't everyone just brimming with confidence these days? I like confidence, but I do think there is such a thing as too much confidence.

  • Ken Rosenthal lists nine things to watch and none of them happened to be the Mets. Frankly Mr. Rosenthal is a silly little man because the Mets are the story. Also, he could have spoken about the parity of the NL. Four fresh teams could be hitting the playoffs this season and that is certainly impressive.

  • In a perfect world, Willie would be trying to get a job elsewhere and Gary would be the manager. Do I know he can coach? No, but I know Willie can not.

  • Though I think players are babies for complaining about the Mets propensity to celebrate, I am glad Reyes is shelving it if only to concentrate more on just playing.

    Strangely enough, I think Willie hit the nail on the head.

    "I'm sure he might have heard people say that other teams were upset about it and it was too much," Randolph said. "But that's stuff that Jose doesn't think about. We don't think about it. When we're having fun, and the kids are expressing themselves, they're not thinking that they're showing anyone up. They don't even know someone is looking at them.

    "No one should be looking at them, really. The fans notice it, the media might see it, but if I'm on the other side, if I need to concern myself with that, your head's in the wrong place."

    Good stuff. Omar also has the right outlook.

    Added Minaya: "I think the beauty of Jose is the joy that he plays with. But that's his decision. I would never encourage him not to do it. It's just that when things don't go well, people highlight stuff like that."

  • Brandon Inge wants no part of catcher and wants to play third base. So it looks like he might be traded.

  • According to MLBTradeRumors.com, Justin Huber either makes the Royals squad or finds a new home. I would love to have him back and it is just nuts that he has not gotten a chance yet.
  • Labels: ,


    Anonymous Anonymous said...


    I'll be out of the league this year. I'm just way too busy and I started up with another league. 3 leagues is my limit.

    I know it's all in good fun, by I just dont have the time.

    Thanks for the two good years. Good luck to all.

    - Nokes

    11:14 AM

    Anonymous Dep said...

    I'm in! lets get it on!

    11:34 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Nokes...say it ain't so.

    It's all good man. Good luck and god speed.

    11:34 AM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Freddy Garcia spotted in Mets camp today -- via John Heyman. Give him a minor league deal, see you in July when we have a hefty lead and can spell Pedro and The Duque some innings. (In a perfect world.)

    I may have to scrap the purchase of an authentic Johan jersey for a Fernando Martinez one. He's confident, and I like that. I hope he stays healthy and hits the shit out of the baseball in AA or wherever he is. It'll take a lot for him to see daylight though. Alou will go down (99.99%), but there's Endy in the wings this year unlike last year.

    Rosenthal is a douche. But he's nice when it comes to trade deadline rumors and breaking stories.

    They should just set up a computer application and let it manage. It'd probably have a better personality than Willie.

    PECOTA's 96 wins make me smile. Rob Neyer makes me smile more.

    I hope every time Jose Reyes steals a base he claps 397 times and smiles and dances the salsa back to the dugout upon scoring. Can't hate a man for doing his job and doing it well ... as long as he does it in September.


    11:50 AM

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Ahh, Nokes, your killing me, Oh well, have fun man.

    Ryan Church posting the same OPS as Abreu is... I don't believe it. I refuse to believe it, that's crazy. And we can all agree, without seeing Church on defense, that he's already better than Abreu.
    And Melky Cabrera sucks, actually I take that back, he's a nice little outfielder but is incredibly over-rated. Melky can play good defense, actually has a good arm but everyone acts like he's the second coming and part of "the great CF history the Yankees have". He's simply not.

    I think this might be the year the Yankees don't make the playoffs. There's even a VERY VERY slim chance they end up in 3rd place. And while they're still offensive monsters, and thier rookie pitchers are amazing, they're still going to be taking thier lumps. For as good as Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy are it's hard for any team to count on 3 rookies! And they are depending on them hard! And Mike Mussina is useless, he pitched worse than Tom Glavine last year, not good.
    And the Yankees depth is non-existent. Kei Igawa? Jeff Karstens? Carl Pavano? lol.
    Although Humberto Sanchez is in there and might do something.

    You have the Blue Jays as both studs and on the bubble? hmm.

    The thing about Fukudome is that his main attribute is OBP and taking pitches. It's not about power or anything else its about his ability to read pitches and I would assume that is a skill that translates. If there is one skill that translates it should be pitch recognition.

    Looking at pictures of Fernando, he's a big dude. I mean he's only 2 years younger than me but he's pretty diesel.

    From Rosenthal's article:
    The incredibly shrinking Cardinals
    No David Eckstein
    Well you could say that without David Eckstein the Cardinals havn't shrunk but gotten BIGGER!
    HAHAHAHA! no? too corny? ok... sorry.

    It seems like Gary Carter is slowly but surely making his rise to be a manager. He's in AA already. And all you have to know about WIllie is the fact that before managing the Mets, I've had more experience in managing 25 different people and personalities because I have done so in GM mode of baseball video games for about 6 years now and I have to make people happy and put ego's in check.

    No more handshakes? no more dancing? Wow... that's not fair.

    I think Brandon Inge would have made alot of money if he stuck to catcher but I see where he's coming from by not wanting to do it.

    Justin Huber... if there was one organization that could mis-handeled him worse than the Mets it was the Royals.

    11:56 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Love the Garcia move. It is a no brainer. Even if you have to overpay him now so no one else has a crack at him...get it done.

    I would back off on the Fernando jersey for now. Too much can wrong there. You want a Glavine jersey? I'll give you a great deal.

    They should just set up a computer application and let it manage. It'd probably have a better personality than Willie.

    I would agree that a computer program could probably do a better job than Willie. Since his greatest asset was supposed to be getting players to play for him and that did not work out so well, I am confused as to what value he is adding.

    A more quiet Reyes is not a great thing. I will believe it when I see it though.

    11:58 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    You have the Blue Jays as both studs and on the bubble? hmm.

    Really Benny? I don't see that...Anyway, I fixed it. I did think they were more studly than bubbly.

    The Yankees have a real shot at missing with the Tigers and Indians in the fold. They could eat up those bottom three teams while the AL East looks harder.

    Their pitching depth is ugly, but the Mets are only one deep. So I’m not going to really lambaste them there.

    RE: Fukudome…I agree which is why him batting 5th seems crazy. He should be batting 1st or 2nd. He seems completely wasted in the 5th slot.

    Fernando is really big man. 6’4”? Nuts. He’s going to fill out and be one big man.

    As if the Cardinals are even a news story at this point.

    Carter > Willie. He was a catcher which bodes well. He is used to be the QB on the field.

    RE: Huber…I don’t think the Mets mishandled him per se…they dealt him when he was in AA or so. The Royals just shit on him.

    12:30 PM

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    You know what, thinking about it, I guess your right. The Mets' depth is not all that hot but the fact that Chan Ho Park, Brian Lawrence throw influential innings last season, is it possible it gets any worse than that?
    I guess Adam Bostick, Jason Vargas, and Tony Armas are on par with Jeff Karstens, Igawa, and Chase Wright...

    I'm not saying the Mets mis-handeled, I'm just saying if there was an organization that could have done a worse job than the potential Mets it'd be the Royals.

    Wow, Freddy Garcia, I would love that.

    Too much talk about Mets vs Phillies. Forget the Phillies, the Braves are the real threat.

    1:20 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    For the record, Pelfrey is the best 6th starter in the city.

    Moving Joba out of the bullpen into the rotation will have a huge negative impact which does negate a lot of the positive impact.

    We know some of those will go down, Mussina will be ineffective at times or injured, etc...You just have to wonder who is going to give them innings? That is a tremendously large problem.

    Braves > Phillies for sure. I just cannot find too many holes. Their offense is solid, though not spectacular, their rotation is good, and their bullpen was one of the best last year. Add into the mix Bobby Cox (the anti-Randolph) and you have a very good team.

    The Phillies are in for a rude awakening. The didn't win a playoff game in 2007 and won't win won in 2008.

    1:42 PM

    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    the fact that Chan Ho Park, Brian Lawrence throw influential innings last season, is it possible it gets any worse than that?

    um, let me think. Geremi Gonzalez and Jose Lima throwing influential innings in 2006?

    2:31 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    James. Baldwin.


    5:46 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Rob Neyer is certainly feelin giddy. As he should be. Cause in the NL, Santana is more than a stud. He is money.

    In fact, he is more than money. And that's better than even money, cause even money aint better than money!


    10:28 PM

    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    Mike you have gone from Mr. Depressed to Mr. Euphoria. I’m not about ready to go to the lengths of ranking the Mets as the 2nd best team in baseball just yet. And I do take exception to the ranking of Abreu and Church. I did a small amount of checking and found that Abreu has driven in at least 101 runs over the last five years and six of the last seven. Church’s best season was last year and he drove in 70, which was good considering it was accomplished in only 470 at bats. But Church is a player that had a difficult time getting playing time with one of the worst teams in baseball. That certainly has to send up a red flag. Anyway Abreu was G-d damn awful the first half of last season and Yankees fans wanted to drive him to the airport. He bounced back in the 2nd half proving that he is not done. Abreu’s career numbers are good and I would still take him over Church. Let Church prove himself as an every day player before Knighting him.

    I don’t have as much faith in medical technology as you do so I am still holding my breath with Pedro and Duaner. I’m hoping for the best and fearing the worst. Some HGH might help both of them.:)

    The two best moves the Yankees made in the off-season were hiring Girardi as Manager and Eiland as their pitching coach. I think Eiland is one of the best up and coming pitching coaches and will certainly help the Yankees pitching staff. Of coarse hiring Miller Huggins as your Manager doesn’t compare even in the slightest with adding Santana to your rotation. That move could make Willie look like a genius this year……..I don’t think bringing in Walter Johnson could even do that. :)

    1:11 AM

    Blogger Patrick said...

    Hey, I'd be interested in playing that fantasy league with some other mets fans if there are still spots.

    9:46 AM

    Blogger Patrick said...

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    9:46 AM

    Anonymous benny said...

    Patrick, just email me at eyedta@Hotmail.com

    10:10 AM

    Anonymous Dep said...

    Ryan Howard wasnt that crazy.

    he won his case.

    10:15 AM

    Anonymous Dep said...

    ah, my post got fugazi'd.

    Its crazy that Howard won, I agreed with you that he was crazy, I just defended his right to be crazy lol ;)

    thats going to cost the Phillies and other teams in the long run. The bar has been raised.

    if anyone was going to win a case for the players, it was Howard.

    10:27 AM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    "You want a Glavine jersey? I'll give you a great deal. "

    I still say you wear it if Glavine ever comes to Shea. Hell, the way his pitching has been stinking, he's liable to be the most valuable player for the Mets in that game.

    10:45 AM

    Blogger Itsmetsforme said...

    i can't believe you purchased a Glavine jersey. Say it was a gift.

    1:21 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    hey, if you have a spot left in the league, send me an offer. my email is dabitchy1ne@yahoo.com

    6:59 PM

    Anonymous Dep said...

    lost is crazy yo. more questions, no answers. a lot of fun though.

    kate had a bery strong episode. bery bery strong.

    12:02 AM

    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    Over at his Newsday Blog David Lennon posts:

    Duque's last dance?
    Interesting chat with Orlando Hernandez a few minutes ago. Turns out he didn't have bunion surgery as the Mets said. The bunion on his right foot is still there and its causing him problems this spring.

    El Duque had surgery to fix a dislocated second toe, which is now actually shorter, affecting his balance. Because of that, Hernandez is lagging behind the other pitchers as he tries to adjust. At the moment, he's planning to face hitters on Saturday.

    Duque also talked about retirement for the first time saying its 50-50 after this season. He jokingly slid out his nameplate and said, "Someone else next year."

    3:48 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Oh, I paid a cool 250 beans for it.

    Let that one soak in!

    12:40 PM

    Blogger heaven said...

    the yankees will be in the playoffs this year, let's not let our bias towards our teams blindside the real facts here the yankees are so much more better than the mets if they were not why are the mets projected to win fewer games than the yankees and the yankees have the will to win something your mets certainly don't have and to say the yankees will miss the playoffs because of the tigers,indians,and bluejays is CRAZY the yanks own all of those when it comes to the regular season along with the red sox and your mets so to say they will miss the playoffs is stupid you would have been better off saying the yankees will have problems in the post season than the grabbage you are saying now. GOD bless the stars in stripes.

    4:59 PM

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    8:37 PM


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