Mets vs. Yankees 2008

Let us take a little quick and dirty look at the Mets and the Yankees.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
RF Ryan Church    29   131  10   2.5  114   19   5.4
CF Carlos Beltran 31   150  38    11  126   27   8.4
LF Moises Alou    41   132  15     4  138   12   3.7
total                       63  17.5        58  17.5

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
RF Bobby Abreu     34  126  28    3   114  19   4.8
CF Melky Cabrera   23   95  13  3.1    89  13   4.4
LF Johnny Damon    34  115  22    4    97  15   3.5
?? Hideki Matsui   34  128   6  2.3   123  17     4
total                       69 12.4        64  16.7

Basically, the Mets outfield is far better. I even added an extra player on the Yankees end and the 2007 numbers from the Mets compare favorably despite Alou only playing in 84 games. The Mets could quite conceivably have all three of their outfielders be more valuable and more productive than any of the four Yankee outfielders. Furthermore, two Yankee outfielders posted a sub .400 SLG% which is just terrible. Barring a breakout year from Melky and Abreu discovering his 2002 form again, this is no contest.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
1B Carlos Delgado 36   131  24   4.8   103  14   4.7
2B Luis Castillo  32    93  17   2.2    91  14   2.1
SS Jose Reyes     25   115  29   4.1   103  24   7.3
3B David Wright   25   133  32   7.3   150  34  10.6
C  Schn / Castro     72/83  12   4.3 77/127 17   4.8
total                      102  22.7        86  29.5

                    2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
1B Jason Giambi   37   148  23   5.9   108   6     5
2B Robinson Cano  25   126  18   7.1   120  21   9.2
SS Derek Jeter    34   132  33   9.1   121  24   6.1
3B Alex Rodriguez 32   134  25   5.2   177  39    11
C  Jorge Posada   36   122  24   7.5   154  26   8.2
total                      123  34.8       116  39.5

Predictably this was not all that close given the huge difference in talent at second and behind the plate for the Yankees. Giambi and Delgado are not as bad as people are making them out to be and first, short, and third are basically a push for me. I do think Posada is going to lose quite a bit of production, but still be far more valuable than the Mets tandem. Of course the Yankees need mega production from their infield because their outfield is going to be one of the worst offensive outfields from any contender.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Johan Santana      29  161  25  10.8  130   18   9.1
Oliver Perez       26   67   6   0.1   120  11   3.7
John Maine         27  121   5   2.4   109  11   5.2
Pedro Martinez     36   97   5   2.5   166   2   0.9
The Duque          42   96   6   3.2   115  10   4.3
total                       47    19        52  23.2

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Chien-Ming Wang   28   124   17  7.9   121  16   7.5
Andy Pettitte     36   106   12  5.2   110  14     6
Phil Hughes       22    -          -   100   4   1.8
Ian Kennedy       23    -          -   236   2   3.2
Mike Mussina      39   129   15  6.7    87   6   3.2
total                        44 19.8        43  20.3

This was a tough one given the two rookies in the Yankee rotation, but I think both will do decent. However, counting on them for oodles and oodles of innings while not going through any growing pains just does not seem right to me. Even if you say Joba and Kennedy are going to switch roles later in the year, which I do not expect to happen, giving them a fresh arm and thereby limiting any potential growing pains, I expect the Mets rotation to be far more balanced, far more consistent, and flat out better. The Mets rotation is one of the top rotations in the league and feature three 15 game winners. Sure the Yankees could have three fifteen game winners, but that would be more of a function of offense then pitching. Giving the Yankees the edge here would be a stretch.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Billy Wagner      36   195  12   6.5   162  11   5.1
Aaron Heilman     29   120   8   3.4   140   9   4.1
Pedro Feliciano   31   209   8   3.8   138   6   2.3
Duaner Sanchez    27   168   6   2.4    -         -
total                       34  16.1         26 11.5

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Mariano Rivera    38   251  14   8.3   142   9   5.5
Kyle Farnsworth   32   104   4   2.7    93   3   0.9
Latroy Hawkins    35   102   4   1.6   140   5   2.6
Joba Chamberlain  22    -          -  1192   4   1.8
total                       22  12.6        21  10.8

Joba's 1192 ERA+ will not last, but it is hard to say he will not be the one of the best set up men, if not the best, in the bigs. I say I give the Yankees the edge on their closer and main set up man, but the Mets pull ahead with their #3 and #4 guys. Also, the Mets top two are not exactly chopped liver and are elite pitchers in their genre as well. I give bullpen the edge to the Mets slightly because of their depth, but the Yankees do have some room for growth here if Hawkins is solid again and a guy like Ohlendorf or Ramirez steps up. I think both bullpens have the potential to be very good.

Top to bottom, the Mets are a slightly better team by my crude estimation. If Hughes and Kennedy both have Verlander-esque rookie seasons while Joba does his best Zumaya impression, the Yankees could pull ahead because they do have a better offense. Basically, both New York teams are very good and many call the Yankees the second best team slightly behind Red Sox. That makes the Mets right behind the Red Sox as well as the second or third best team in the majors. I like the Tigers in the fourth spot slightly ahead of the Indians, but I need to see their rotation hold it together before I start saying they are as good as the well balanced Met and Yankee teams.

My top fifteen teams:

Elite
1) Red Sox
2) Mets
3) Yankees
4) Tigers
5) Indians

Studs
6) Cubs
7) Angels
8) Dodgers
9) D-Backs
10) Blue Jays
11) Braves

On the bubble
12) Phillies (cry me a river Philly fans about how you won the division and deserve some respect)
13) Milwaukee
14) Mariners
15) San Diego (not only does San Diego mean whale's vagina, but their offense is going to be atrocious)

Before anyone starts complaining, the teams within each category are pretty close to being interchangeable for me. As for the Rockies, they are just not on the list. I'm not seeing how they are better than any of those teams. Their historic run was fun and all, but they are an 84 win team.

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It is fantasy baseball time. Please email Benny or myself if you are interested in joining the league. First come, first served. Also, Benny sent invites to a few people who have not accepted. If you are not accepting because you fear my insane Fantasy Baseball skills, let us know so we can ask other people.

Rob Neyer keeps laying it on thick.

Jason (NYC): Speaking of Nate Silver's PECOTA, did you see the Mets with 96 wins :) I'm extra giddy.

Rob Neyer: Yeah, and you should be giddy. They added the best pitcher in the world to the best team in the National League. If there's one team that's most likely to win 100 games this season it's the Mets.

They are good. Very good.

Ossy brought up an interesting point. He said Fukodome should start off batting 7th and earn his way up. However, we have a pretty good idea of how he should fare based on past performance in Japan, looking at other Japanese players who came, over etc. Of course, we can extend this to minor leaguers as well.

John (San Diego): MLEs?

Rob Neyer: Major League Eqivalencies, John. Based on minor-league stats. Big part of the literature.

Simply said, we should have a pretty good idea of how these players should fare. These are all humans and things can happen like not being able to perform on a certain stage, but if a team has a need and a player profiles well in regards to fitting that need, why play games and bat them 7th and have them earn their way up? Why not let them have the spot from day #1 and adjust as needed later?

David Wright has been the best hitter on the team since midway through 2005. The fact that he was not batting higher than fifth with any regularity until midway through the 2007 is absolutely laughable. If the skill is there, why not let them add meaningfully from day one?

The Cubs have a serious OBP issue. They were 9th in the NL in OBP, got a .341 OBP from the #1 spot, and a .336 from the #2 spot. Fukudome has a .406, .401,. 367, .430, .438, and .443 OBP over the past six seasons. That is insanely good. He certainly seems like a guy that can fill a need and he may not be used to do it. Instead, he will miscast as the 5th hitter to break up some righties despite the fact he is not going to hit with much homer power. This all seems elementary to me and I see no reason to screw around. Get it right from day one.

I guess I need to change the name of this here blog.

Were the Mets ever officially called the Metropolitans? Or is this just a common mistake among fans? We're having a two-day argument at work about this and would really appreciate a resolution.
-- Daniel G., Astoria, N.Y.

The New York Metropolitan Baseball Club Inc. once was the corporate name. Mets was the team name. People would refer to them as the Metropolitans in much the same way that folks refer to Mookie Wilson as William. The corporate name now is Sterling Mets, LP. It had been Sterling Doubleday Enterprises, LP.

Whoa, whoa, whoa....slow down Fernando.

"This year," Martinez said, "you'll see me."

Well isn't everyone just brimming with confidence these days? I like confidence, but I do think there is such a thing as too much confidence.

Ken Rosenthal lists nine things to watch and none of them happened to be the Mets. Frankly Mr. Rosenthal is a silly little man because the Mets are the story. Also, he could have spoken about the parity of the NL. Four fresh teams could be hitting the playoffs this season and that is certainly impressive.

In a perfect world, Willie would be trying to get a job elsewhere and Gary would be the manager. Do I know he can coach? No, but I know Willie can not.

Though I think players are babies for complaining about the Mets propensity to celebrate, I am glad Reyes is shelving it if only to concentrate more on just playing.

Strangely enough, I think Willie hit the nail on the head.

"I'm sure he might have heard people say that other teams were upset about it and it was too much," Randolph said. "But that's stuff that Jose doesn't think about. We don't think about it. When we're having fun, and the kids are expressing themselves, they're not thinking that they're showing anyone up. They don't even know someone is looking at them.

"No one should be looking at them, really. The fans notice it, the media might see it, but if I'm on the other side, if I need to concern myself with that, your head's in the wrong place."

Good stuff. Omar also has the right outlook.

Added Minaya: "I think the beauty of Jose is the joy that he plays with. But that's his decision. I would never encourage him not to do it. It's just that when things don't go well, people highlight stuff like that."

Brandon Inge wants no part of catcher and wants to play third base. So it looks like he might be traded.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, Justin Huber either makes the Royals squad or finds a new home. I would love to have him back and it is just nuts that he has not gotten a chance yet.

Your mama says you ugly

Speechless.

Is there really a worse time for the Mets to shit the bed? I know I'm going out on a limb here, but this really has been a bad stretch for the Mets.

* * *

Ouch....

Fernando Martinez, of, Double-A Binghamton (Mets)

Martinez has been hot and cold this season in Double-A, but June has been mostly chilly for the teenager. Martinez is hitting .214 with the same slugging percentage--no extra base hits so far this month.

Well, the 18 year old playing AA managed to knock one out yesterday. I think anyone at his age doing what he is doing deserves the benefit of the doubt and doesn't belong on the not-so-hot section.

While Josh Hamilton might be the biggest story of '07, Rick Ankiel is not far behind.

It's time to move up Kevin Mulvey to AAA. While Humber struggles, Mulvey may just be rocketing up the depth charts. Of course Humber is coming back from Tommy John and might require more time, but it is what it is and he is having a tough time.

Breathing Room

Boston is now a whopping 13.5 games in front of the Yankees. After all that elation that Damon was back and healthy to drive the offense getting the Yankees back on track, the harsh reality has to be setting in right now for Yankee fans. The are in last place and frankly not very good. We are going to be entering June and they are double digits out of first place sitting all the way down in last place with the Devil Rays. Their run differential is still good, but it is ever shrinking.

Has a team ever leapfrogged four reams and closed a double digit lead this late in the season? If anyone has, the list would have to be extremely short. Once Clemens comes back and Hughes gets healthy, the rotation will be better and stable. Will they be much better? Probably not as I don't entirely think Clemens is going to light the world on fire and Hughes is a rookie. However, they don't need to be with that offense which is probably not as good as everyone thought, but is definitely better than they have played lately.

In the end, their bullpen is going to be the reason they cannot significantly close the gap. Humberto Sanchez going down was a huge blow to the Yankees because he could have been a huge pitcher for them out of the bullpen. This aging team seems to be on life support on this point and I for one do not see how they can turn things around at this point. Seven teams are in front of them for the Wild Card and they are 7.5 games out of that. While they may have a run in them which might see them close the gap, it's over.

On the other side of town, the Mets have created some breathing room and are now four games in from of the Braves and 2.5 games behind the Red Sox for the best record in the bigs. They have surrendered the 2nd least runs in the majors and are one of only five teams remaining that have not given up 200 or more runs. They have the best road record with a .720 win% out of every team with Boston right behind them with a .692% on the road. There just isn't much to complain about and if they can figure out the Braves, it is going to be a breeze for the Mets.

* * *

I really enjoyed this Marty Noble quote:

The Mets' rotation hardly is the best I've seen. But no team has five starters capable of pitching seven scoreless innings and not surprising anyone in the process. However, the Mets do.

Spot on.

Is the D-Train really a commodity the Marlins could get anything significant for? I wouldn't give up much for him as he just isn't a front end starter and has not been since 2005. The league seemingly has figured him out and if the Marlins get any decent offer, they should jump all over it.

Mr. Billy Wagner is good.

I am going to happily watch this game. Perez vs. Lincecum might be the most intriguing game we have seen all year in regards to starting pitching. Two players who have shut down stuff and it should be a blast.

Mike Pelfrey got a bit roughed up in New Orleans' loss to Omaha. Pelfrey went 3.2 innings and gave up seven hits, five runs, four earned runs, and two walks and has a 3.52 ERA.

In the same game, Mota threw a shut-out inning and struck out two.

Just Another Game

The Mets/Yankees series is a big deal in these parts. I do not particularly like it as I'm forced to deal directly with Yankee fans, but I somehow manage to make it through year after year. As for the teams, year after year they will claim that it's just another series and it has no extra meaning. Anyone buying that? Look no further than the Mets game against the Cubs today. Beltran? Resting. Wright? Resting. Reyes? Resting. Yes, Reyes and Beltran are a little banged up and needed a day off, but sitting everyone the day before the big series speaks volumes about needing your core to be rested and ready to go.

Throw on top of that the Mets using Vargas for seven and Burgos for two so they have a rested bullpen as well and you have yourself a pretty comfortable position in a series that does not mean much. The Mets also have Glavine, Perez, and Maine slated to pitch during the series and the Yankees are coming off of a demoralizing series in which they were just over matched by the Chicago White Sox. Does it all sound to good to be true? Actually, it does.

Yankee fans continue to be in denial and have broke out everything from your staff is unproven to you haven't won anything since '86 to Beltran looking at strike three last year to twelve straight playoff trips for the Yankees.... I don't care. I look at this team and I see a team struggling to do anything right. Offense, relief pitching, starting pitching...nothing is working. With the Yankees down, Randolph is smelling blood and wanted to ensure that his team was ready. Was he prepared to just throw away today's game to accomplish that? Possibly. It sure looks like that could be case. We know what bragging rights in this town means and we know Willie would like to show up his old team give more credence to the growing belief that the Mets are the best team in New York right now by taking out the Yankees this weekend.

Just another series? I don't buy it. Both sides want to beat their cross town rival badly.

* * *

Us Met fans tend to get excited about players when they do good whether we know it's for real or we know it's an aberration. It's part of our DNA. There have been many times we overreacted and fooled ourselves into believing in guys like Jason Phillips, Tyler Yates, Brian Bannister (he never fooled me), Benny Agbayani, etc. and had irrational expectations thrust upon these players. Enter Jorge Sosa.... Now, I'd rather a scout say this stuff, but I'll take it from a fantasy expert that looks like a weenie.

You think this is a fluke, don't you? I think fantasy owners get way too caught up in what a guy did the previous season, for good and bad. Sosa nearly won an ERA title in 2005, and while his WHIP certainly didn't match his ERA in value, we could see this guy was hard to hit. Then in 2006, this guy was bad, very bad, allowing an unheard-of rate of home runs per innings. Now he's good again, but nobody believes it. Well, believe it! Sosa is in precisely the right spot to thrive, as is, apparently, Oliver Perez. Still think Leo Mazzone is the king of pitching coaches? Watch Daniel Cabrera in his next inconsistent outing. Rick Peterson has fixed Sosa and Perez. Just so you know I always practice what I preached, I grabbed Sosa in multiple leagues before he even got called up, and now he's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and nine hits allowed in 20 innings. He's not filling in for Orlando Hernandez anymore, he's this team's No. 2 or 3 playoff starter, depending on how John Maine holds up. I think Sosa can win 12 or 13 games and keep his ERA in the 3.00 range, which is pretty good.

Yikes. Those are some pretty bold statements being inked in the above paragraph. I think the biggest surprise of the year, though maybe not to us Met fans, is how effective this rotation is. I truly thought Mike Pelfrey would turn into the ace of the team this year, but after what was a horrible stint with the Mets, doubts are creeping into people's minds as to whether or not he will even achieve front end status in this league. However, Omar Minaya being the shrewd and ever diligent GM that he is had plenty of fall back options in place and Sosa certainly has risen to the occasion.

While most of the New Orleans staff has been getting knocked around in the band-box that is the PCL, Sosa was outperforming everyone by a lot and has not looked back. Of course I'm not too sure what to make of it. I've watched him pitch and he certainly looks good and pitching in Shea certainly helps. But you if you look at what he's done since 2003, his track record certainly does not bode well.

      WHIP  ERA  BAA  HR/9  K/9
2003  1.53 4.62 .278  0.98 5.04
2004  1.55 5.53 .259  1.54 8.52
2005  1.40 2.55 .241  0.81 5.71
2006  1.51 5.42 .292  2.29 5.72

So there you have it. Numbers to confound the mind. It is entirely possible he is a good big league pitcher. However, with a WHIP in the 1.50 area, he is hard pressed to attain ace status outside of an anomaly season. That being said, he has also been a guy that has had a good arm and never seemed to really find a good fit. What is really crazy is just how strikingly similar Perez and Sosa are. Not necessarily in age, but sheer performance.

Normally I would have to wait until midway through '08 to decide if he if for real, but if Perez and Sosa keep this up, I might just make up my mind a lot sooner. I certainly trust my eyes enough to see that they look like big league pitchers and I certainly believe that Rick Peterson is one of the best in the biz at straightening out guys with good arms and bad game plans. If I had to put money on it, I would bet that Perez and Sosa end the season a lot like they started it.

Also from the above link:

Jose Reyes: Speaking of running fast, Reyes is on pace for 96 stolen bases, which would be the highest total this decade. The last guy to swipe 100 bases in a season was Vince Coleman, and that was 20 years ago. Reyes is a far better player in every way, taking walks, hitting for power, scoring bushels of runs. I predict he'll steal 81 bases. The question isn't how good Reyes is, but is he the best player in fantasy? Fellow ESPN writer Pete Becker believes Reyes is the best, and certainly the slow start by Pujols adds credence to it. Reyes is currently third on the Player Rater behind only Alex Rodriguez and Jake Peavy. I predict he'll end up second to A-Rod.

Reyes is still getting as much love now as he was at the end of last season and it doesn't seem to stop. One of the hottest topics of this young season is who is best short stop in the NL? Us Mets fans have been crying it is Reyes while others have said Ramirez is better and now Hardy has joined in the discussion with his A-Rod-esque numbers. Stark had a quick and dirty way to go about it and of course, Reyes ran away with it. The competition is stiff, but Reyes is the best all around shortstop in the National League and possibly the best overall player to boot.

Lastings speaks out...or at least someone speaks out for him.

"Lastings wants to apologize to the Mets organization, to his teammates and to anyone that was hurt by his lyrics," said Arroyo. "It wasn't his intention to hurt anyone....He's going to make sure he uses better judgment in the future."

The sexually explicit song, "Bend Ya Knees," has been removed from the Web site souljaboirecords.com, and Arroyo said it was "just a demo" never meant for the public.

Milledge raps about "rich (N word)," "wealthy (N word)," a "top-notch ho" and having "a different bitch for every night" on the song with Manny D, a childhood friend who is signed to Milledge's label.

I hope that ends it.

F-Mart!

I was watching the end of the Yankee/White Sox game and Mike MacDougal was flat out nasty. I know he's had some issues this year, but how the guy ever gets touched is beyond me.