What, Me Worry?

It is early. We know this. Well, some of us know this. The only thing that is being reinforced for me early in the season is that I do not like Willie Randolph. Other than that, nothing is really all that apparent. As of this morning, the Mets were tied with their two biggest rivals.

The Marlins are running away with the division with their stellar undefeated record on the road, but I am not all that concerned right now. I certainly am not ready to say Beltran is 100% right just yet, but it is too early to call the Mets listless and uninspired. I am also not ready to say that Atlanta's manhandling of the Mets means anything. I mean, the Mets faced Smoltz and Hudson, which is not fun at all.

On the bright side of things, Church, Beltran, Wright, Schneider, Pagan, and Delagdo all look good at the plate. Their ISoD as a team is .069, which is rather impressive. Jose has not looked good at all and has yet to steal a base, but again, it has been five games. Personally, I think the Mets have looked decent so far. Nothing spectacular, but nothing that really raises any caution flags, with the exception of Willie continually saying some of his guys are spare parts to the media. Everyone that is not relaxed, relax. 

* * *

Is everyone five years old?

Pedro is going to start his rehab at Port St. Lucie. Actually, his rehab sounds more like a relaxing vacation.

Huh, what?

"When you start the season, I try to get my guys to stay small and not try to get too big, especially the big boys who are accustomed to hitting home runs," Randolph said. "For guys like that it's good just to start small and as you get more comfortable open up. It's a good approach, but we have to get the big knocks, too."

That was very John Madden-esque in terms of the contradictory statements.

"You gotta play small...except when you gotta play big...and if you are playing big....you cannot play small. But when you are playing small....you cannot play big."

"At the end of the day as a hitter you want to execute and you want to execute well," Delgado said. "Whether it's small, patient, staying behind the ball, using your hands, it's all the same. All you want to do is get that feel that you're in a hitting position before the ball gets there."

Now that is a statement I can get behind. What you have to do is try and hit like your normally do and do it fundamentally correct. If you do that, good things will happen.

The D-Backs are locking up Chris Young. They are looking to structure it similar to the Tulowitzki deal, which makes sense. I think Troy is a good comp for this deal and it is certainly nice to bypass the messiness of arbitration. However, if the deal is only five years, then it doesn't make tons of sense if it does not buy out at least one year of free agency. I would assume it did and added on an option, but we shall see.

I hope Boras keeps flapping his lips. Flap, flap, flap, flap, flap. Then maybe the Mets can catch a big time pick late in the first round.

I can only dream I have a weeding this fun.

Opending Day Bitches! / Pointless Exercise II

It is upon us. The 2008 season is finally going to fire on all cylinders today and 2008 is the year of retribution for the Mets. The theme today seems to be forgetting 2007, which is just plain silly. Why would you want to forget? I have done stupid thing upon stupid thing in my life and I would never trade that in for the world.

I mean, how else does anyone learn anything. Why not use that horrific collapse to fuel your desire to bury everyone else in the league? Why would you want to forget that and perhaps take things for granted again if you are cruising in late August? Why would you want to perpetuate complacency? I say quite the contrary. The Mets need to remind themselves of 2007 (and 2006 for that matter) every day of the season to give them something to play for.

Individual Award Predictions:

National League
MVP
1) David Wright
People know he got snubbed last year and that is going to give him a bit more attention this year. Of course the Mets absolutely kicking ass will not hurt either. However, he will be hurt by the fact that Beltran and Reyes are going to be amazing as well, but in the end, he will be the best player on the best team and will get the nod as he continues to step up his game.
2) Ryan Braun
Dude is good. The Brewers are good. The only thing that might hold him back is his transition to left. However, he played short in college so I think he will adjust fine because he is a tremendous athlete which was evident when you watched play third last season. He may have butchered things a bit, but he was able to make some sparkling plays on some tough balls.
3) Mark Teixeira
I am thinking big for Mark this season. The Braves might just miss the playoffs, but he will be tremendous this season in the field and at the plate.

CY Young
1) Johan Santana
Dominating from start to finish, he will breeze past 20 wins and lay waste to everyone. Nice.
2) Brandon Webb
He's my fantasy team's ace and I am not sure if you got the memo, but he is really good. I like them the D-Backs as the best in the West and he will be their driving force yet again.
3) Jake Peavy
Hard to believe he was born in the 80's. He is entering his prime and I see no reason why he will not be just as devastating as last season. However, he was reeeeaaaallly good last year so I expect a slight pullback, but that will still leave him as one of the top five starters in the NL.

ROY
1) Jay Bruce
Late start and all, he will be the last guy standing. The Mets had it down to him and Pelfrey in the 2005 draft and the Mets look like they chose wrong. Bruce is a stud.
2) Edison Vólquez
Is he even a rookie? I think he might be and he was lights out this spring. Of course, I think a large part of his 2nd place finish will be the fact he is in the bigs from day #1, but he will be pretty impressive as well.
3) Kosuke Fukudome
While good, there are plenty of young guys who are just flat out better.

American League
MVP
1) Grady Sizemore
This is finally the year he goes from star to mega-star.
2) Alex Rodriguez
Just another Hall of Fame like season for A-Rod...ho-hum. Thankfully, he will be sitting in October because this is the year the Yankees miss the playoffs.
3) Miguel Cabrera
I know he is the sexy pick this year, but is finishing third really that bad?

Cy Young
1) Justin Verlander
I think this guy is going to be huge this year and he will be the ace for the AL Central winning Tigers. Huge offense behind a great arm means lots of wins and the voters love them wins.
2) Erik Bedard
If he is healthy enough for 32 starts, he is going to compile some scary numbers.
3) Dustin McGowan
Boom. Dustin McGowan just finished third in the Cy Young voting. What are you going to do about it? 

ROY
1) Evan Longoria
It is hard to ignore all the love he is getting. He will be up for good sooner rather than later and the kid should be ripping from day #1. With an impressive offense, he should be able to put up some rather impressive stats as well.
2) Clay Buchholz
On the universe's best team, the best rookie pitcher in the MLB should have a fine season.
3) Phil Hughes
What about Joba? It's about compiling and Phil should be able to do that better since he will be in the rotation from day #1. He'll be out a few weeks as usual, but assuming Joba is going to go from lights out set-up man to lights out starter mid-season is a stretch for me. If he stays in the bullpen all season, he gets this spot.

* * *

100k turned out to see this siliness. However, it is pretty interesting to see a game played in that type of field.

Pelfrey wins by default. Let us see if he can step up his game for once.

Outside of New York, people are talking some Mets baseball.

Ohio likes the Mets. Third overall? I'll take that.

Chicago likes the Mets......at least I think that is what they are saying.

Canada like the Mets, but I still do not like Canada.

Pittsburgh thinks Johan can win 25 and I agree.

Jack Morris seems to be bat shit crazy these days. Santana's change-up is gold. Pure gold. He has made a living off of it so far and I would advise him to keep doing exactly what he has been doing.

Klap likes El Trigres to win it all. Not a bad choice, but I think the World Series that was supposed to happen in 2006 actually happens in 2008 and the Mets will be the last team standing.

Wright is focussed.

Optimism Abound

Unless you are Jon Harper.

I wouldn't bet the ranch on this team. Age and some injury issues at the moment are significant enough to point to how a lot could go wrong, as has been the case too often for the Mets over the years.

Why so glum? Could you point out one team that doesn't have the same exact issues? The Mets were able to withstand significant injuries and make the playoffs in '06 and barely missed in '07 despite fielding one of the worst outfields in the league at one point.

Sure Beltran will miss some time, but he was still extremely valuable despite not playing in 150+ games and as long as he is there at the end and gives 140+ games, I am happy.

As for Castillo, let him get hurt. I mean, I am not hoping he gets hurt, but Ruben Gotay did very well last season and I would not mind seeing him get some significant innings to see if he can grow a bit as a ball player.

Now to the bullpen...I am not sure the Mets are counting on Duaner to save their bullpen. They most assuredly want him back and are excited to have him back, but this bullpen is actually very deep. So deep that Joe Smith might find himself in the minors.

The Mets do not have one bad piece and if they go into panic mode, they can get Pelfrey or The Duque into the pen. There are enough available arms to compliment an improved rotation to give the Mets reliable pitching all season.

Then Harper keeps going and suggesting that Schneider is somehow an offensive downgrade over LoDuca. He makes this mistake as so many do confusing Brian McCann and Paul LoDuca. LoDuca was a horrible offensive player in 2007. Now I am not saying Brian is much better, but I like his offensive game more since it is not solely based around slapping singles around.

He can take a pitch and I appreciate that at the bottom of the lineup and is much more suited to be on this team in its current configuration. Will everything go right for the Mets? Absolutely not. However, predicting some sort of doomsday scenario is just ridiculous.

People are quick to point out all these things while not pointing out that their 1, 2, and 3 starters have room to grow, Wright and Reyes are still growing, Church and Schneider are actually upgrades over what they trotted out there last year, Gotay for one full year or Castillo for one full year is an upgrade over whatever they had in '07, Pelfrey appears primed for a step forward, and Alou is more valuable than half the outfielders in the bigs even after playing only 84 games.

I see no reason why people should be pessimistic at all. What team does not have questions of age and health? Can this guy bounce back or not? Can that guy play in his late 30's? Was 2007 a fluke for that guy? What team is perfect? The Mets are roughly 5% better than the next best team in the NL and almost 10% better than any other team in the NL East. To not be incredibly optimistic is just silly.

The Phillies closer is already out for six weeks, they are depending on a 38 year old set-up man, and they have no back end of the rotation. The Braves have two 40+ starters, a guy who is new to closing for a full year, and their best hitter has played in 137, 109, 110, and 134 games over the last four years. Alou is the Mets fourth best hitter and we are getting concerned about how many games he plays? Let us stop with the sensationalism please and just get behind the goodness that is the 2008 Mets.

* * *

Duaner is sore, but the reality is he is not going to pitch 80 games this year. He is going to be sore at times and need a break. Luckily the Mets are rather deep in the bullpen and have three arms than can go 200 innings in 2008 in the rotation.

Milledge has every right to be upset. It does not seem like he was treated all that well in his time there on many fronts.

Speaking of bullpens, Tim Marchman sees the Met bullpen as a potential issue.

None of this is made better by the use of Pedro Feliciano, who can get all hitters out but has had more games pitched than innings the last three years, a sign of how heavily he's used in a specialist role.

I think Willie is one of the biggest problems here and only exacerbated problems with the inability to exhibit any sort of logic. The continued use of Mota is just indicative of how he has no ability to be flexible.

If that's the best that can be said of it, though, Mets fans will be right to be worried all through the year. The problem here is less the quality of the pitchers than the structure of the bullpen, which isn't built to stand up to much stress. If the Mets get three awful starts in a row, it's going to be badly strained. If Heilman continues to have problems with left-handers, there's no obvious second plan. If the team has an important series coming up against a team that feasts on sinker/slider types, they won't be able to do much about it.

Marchman kind of assumes that Sanchez will be out and no one steps up. Register was just converted from being a starter so I think it is unfair to assume he cannot add much value. While I agree I would like some more flamethrowers, the Mets do have options and their spectacular bullpen of 2006 was not comprised of fireballers. The 2007 bullpen was actually very good for the majority of the year and that is overlooked.

I think usage is a big part of it and the ability to adapt is a big part. Willie cannot lay out his game plan and his list of who he likes in game #1 and stick to it no matter what. With bullpens, you need to be dynamic at times and Willie was not dynamic in 2007.

It is hard to not like Rustich's move to the rotation. Even if he is not going to be a big league starter, let him get more innings while on the farm.

While you never want to put much stock into spring stats at all, it is better to do good than to do bad.

Johan will be on TV at 1:00 today. Watch it. Enjoy it.

Willie knew nothing about MacNamee, but why not?

Mets vs. Yankees 2008

Let us take a little quick and dirty look at the Mets and the Yankees.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
RF Ryan Church    29   131  10   2.5  114   19   5.4
CF Carlos Beltran 31   150  38    11  126   27   8.4
LF Moises Alou    41   132  15     4  138   12   3.7
total                       63  17.5        58  17.5

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
RF Bobby Abreu     34  126  28    3   114  19   4.8
CF Melky Cabrera   23   95  13  3.1    89  13   4.4
LF Johnny Damon    34  115  22    4    97  15   3.5
?? Hideki Matsui   34  128   6  2.3   123  17     4
total                       69 12.4        64  16.7

Basically, the Mets outfield is far better. I even added an extra player on the Yankees end and the 2007 numbers from the Mets compare favorably despite Alou only playing in 84 games. The Mets could quite conceivably have all three of their outfielders be more valuable and more productive than any of the four Yankee outfielders. Furthermore, two Yankee outfielders posted a sub .400 SLG% which is just terrible. Barring a breakout year from Melky and Abreu discovering his 2002 form again, this is no contest.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
1B Carlos Delgado 36   131  24   4.8   103  14   4.7
2B Luis Castillo  32    93  17   2.2    91  14   2.1
SS Jose Reyes     25   115  29   4.1   103  24   7.3
3B David Wright   25   133  32   7.3   150  34  10.6
C  Schn / Castro     72/83  12   4.3 77/127 17   4.8
total                      102  22.7        86  29.5

                    2006            2007
                  AGE OPS+  WS Warp1  OPS+  WS Warp1
1B Jason Giambi   37   148  23   5.9   108   6     5
2B Robinson Cano  25   126  18   7.1   120  21   9.2
SS Derek Jeter    34   132  33   9.1   121  24   6.1
3B Alex Rodriguez 32   134  25   5.2   177  39    11
C  Jorge Posada   36   122  24   7.5   154  26   8.2
total                      123  34.8       116  39.5

Predictably this was not all that close given the huge difference in talent at second and behind the plate for the Yankees. Giambi and Delgado are not as bad as people are making them out to be and first, short, and third are basically a push for me. I do think Posada is going to lose quite a bit of production, but still be far more valuable than the Mets tandem. Of course the Yankees need mega production from their infield because their outfield is going to be one of the worst offensive outfields from any contender.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Johan Santana      29  161  25  10.8  130   18   9.1
Oliver Perez       26   67   6   0.1   120  11   3.7
John Maine         27  121   5   2.4   109  11   5.2
Pedro Martinez     36   97   5   2.5   166   2   0.9
The Duque          42   96   6   3.2   115  10   4.3
total                       47    19        52  23.2

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Chien-Ming Wang   28   124   17  7.9   121  16   7.5
Andy Pettitte     36   106   12  5.2   110  14     6
Phil Hughes       22    -          -   100   4   1.8
Ian Kennedy       23    -          -   236   2   3.2
Mike Mussina      39   129   15  6.7    87   6   3.2
total                        44 19.8        43  20.3

This was a tough one given the two rookies in the Yankee rotation, but I think both will do decent. However, counting on them for oodles and oodles of innings while not going through any growing pains just does not seem right to me. Even if you say Joba and Kennedy are going to switch roles later in the year, which I do not expect to happen, giving them a fresh arm and thereby limiting any potential growing pains, I expect the Mets rotation to be far more balanced, far more consistent, and flat out better. The Mets rotation is one of the top rotations in the league and feature three 15 game winners. Sure the Yankees could have three fifteen game winners, but that would be more of a function of offense then pitching. Giving the Yankees the edge here would be a stretch.

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Billy Wagner      36   195  12   6.5   162  11   5.1
Aaron Heilman     29   120   8   3.4   140   9   4.1
Pedro Feliciano   31   209   8   3.8   138   6   2.3
Duaner Sanchez    27   168   6   2.4    -         -
total                       34  16.1         26 11.5

                       2006            2007
                  AGE ERA+  WS Warp1  ERA+  WS Warp1
Mariano Rivera    38   251  14   8.3   142   9   5.5
Kyle Farnsworth   32   104   4   2.7    93   3   0.9
Latroy Hawkins    35   102   4   1.6   140   5   2.6
Joba Chamberlain  22    -          -  1192   4   1.8
total                       22  12.6        21  10.8

Joba's 1192 ERA+ will not last, but it is hard to say he will not be the one of the best set up men, if not the best, in the bigs. I say I give the Yankees the edge on their closer and main set up man, but the Mets pull ahead with their #3 and #4 guys. Also, the Mets top two are not exactly chopped liver and are elite pitchers in their genre as well. I give bullpen the edge to the Mets slightly because of their depth, but the Yankees do have some room for growth here if Hawkins is solid again and a guy like Ohlendorf or Ramirez steps up. I think both bullpens have the potential to be very good.

Top to bottom, the Mets are a slightly better team by my crude estimation. If Hughes and Kennedy both have Verlander-esque rookie seasons while Joba does his best Zumaya impression, the Yankees could pull ahead because they do have a better offense. Basically, both New York teams are very good and many call the Yankees the second best team slightly behind Red Sox. That makes the Mets right behind the Red Sox as well as the second or third best team in the majors. I like the Tigers in the fourth spot slightly ahead of the Indians, but I need to see their rotation hold it together before I start saying they are as good as the well balanced Met and Yankee teams.

My top fifteen teams:

Elite
1) Red Sox
2) Mets
3) Yankees
4) Tigers
5) Indians

Studs
6) Cubs
7) Angels
8) Dodgers
9) D-Backs
10) Blue Jays
11) Braves

On the bubble
12) Phillies (cry me a river Philly fans about how you won the division and deserve some respect)
13) Milwaukee
14) Mariners
15) San Diego (not only does San Diego mean whale's vagina, but their offense is going to be atrocious)

Before anyone starts complaining, the teams within each category are pretty close to being interchangeable for me. As for the Rockies, they are just not on the list. I'm not seeing how they are better than any of those teams. Their historic run was fun and all, but they are an 84 win team.

* * *

It is fantasy baseball time. Please email Benny or myself if you are interested in joining the league. First come, first served. Also, Benny sent invites to a few people who have not accepted. If you are not accepting because you fear my insane Fantasy Baseball skills, let us know so we can ask other people.

Rob Neyer keeps laying it on thick.

Jason (NYC): Speaking of Nate Silver's PECOTA, did you see the Mets with 96 wins :) I'm extra giddy.

Rob Neyer: Yeah, and you should be giddy. They added the best pitcher in the world to the best team in the National League. If there's one team that's most likely to win 100 games this season it's the Mets.

They are good. Very good.

Ossy brought up an interesting point. He said Fukodome should start off batting 7th and earn his way up. However, we have a pretty good idea of how he should fare based on past performance in Japan, looking at other Japanese players who came, over etc. Of course, we can extend this to minor leaguers as well.

John (San Diego): MLEs?

Rob Neyer: Major League Eqivalencies, John. Based on minor-league stats. Big part of the literature.

Simply said, we should have a pretty good idea of how these players should fare. These are all humans and things can happen like not being able to perform on a certain stage, but if a team has a need and a player profiles well in regards to fitting that need, why play games and bat them 7th and have them earn their way up? Why not let them have the spot from day #1 and adjust as needed later?

David Wright has been the best hitter on the team since midway through 2005. The fact that he was not batting higher than fifth with any regularity until midway through the 2007 is absolutely laughable. If the skill is there, why not let them add meaningfully from day one?

The Cubs have a serious OBP issue. They were 9th in the NL in OBP, got a .341 OBP from the #1 spot, and a .336 from the #2 spot. Fukudome has a .406, .401,. 367, .430, .438, and .443 OBP over the past six seasons. That is insanely good. He certainly seems like a guy that can fill a need and he may not be used to do it. Instead, he will miscast as the 5th hitter to break up some righties despite the fact he is not going to hit with much homer power. This all seems elementary to me and I see no reason to screw around. Get it right from day one.

I guess I need to change the name of this here blog.

Were the Mets ever officially called the Metropolitans? Or is this just a common mistake among fans? We're having a two-day argument at work about this and would really appreciate a resolution.
-- Daniel G., Astoria, N.Y.

The New York Metropolitan Baseball Club Inc. once was the corporate name. Mets was the team name. People would refer to them as the Metropolitans in much the same way that folks refer to Mookie Wilson as William. The corporate name now is Sterling Mets, LP. It had been Sterling Doubleday Enterprises, LP.

Whoa, whoa, whoa....slow down Fernando.

"This year," Martinez said, "you'll see me."

Well isn't everyone just brimming with confidence these days? I like confidence, but I do think there is such a thing as too much confidence.

Ken Rosenthal lists nine things to watch and none of them happened to be the Mets. Frankly Mr. Rosenthal is a silly little man because the Mets are the story. Also, he could have spoken about the parity of the NL. Four fresh teams could be hitting the playoffs this season and that is certainly impressive.

In a perfect world, Willie would be trying to get a job elsewhere and Gary would be the manager. Do I know he can coach? No, but I know Willie can not.

Though I think players are babies for complaining about the Mets propensity to celebrate, I am glad Reyes is shelving it if only to concentrate more on just playing.

Strangely enough, I think Willie hit the nail on the head.

"I'm sure he might have heard people say that other teams were upset about it and it was too much," Randolph said. "But that's stuff that Jose doesn't think about. We don't think about it. When we're having fun, and the kids are expressing themselves, they're not thinking that they're showing anyone up. They don't even know someone is looking at them.

"No one should be looking at them, really. The fans notice it, the media might see it, but if I'm on the other side, if I need to concern myself with that, your head's in the wrong place."

Good stuff. Omar also has the right outlook.

Added Minaya: "I think the beauty of Jose is the joy that he plays with. But that's his decision. I would never encourage him not to do it. It's just that when things don't go well, people highlight stuff like that."

Brandon Inge wants no part of catcher and wants to play third base. So it looks like he might be traded.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, Justin Huber either makes the Royals squad or finds a new home. I would love to have him back and it is just nuts that he has not gotten a chance yet.

Good or Great?

Rob Neyer is one smart man.

Ryan Dempster says the Cubs are going to win the World Series and Jimmy Rollins says the Phillies are going to win 100 games. I don't think it really hurts anything for players to engage in these sorts of rousing predictions. But as Homer Derby's Richie Rich points out, both predictions are unlikely to come true now that Johan Santana's joined the National League. Just to pile on, I'll note that the projections have started coming in, and the Mets are easily the best-looking team in the league, with roughly 95 wins on the proverbial paper (the Cubs are next, just short of 90).

The Mets are pretty much the best team in the NL heading into the season. You can give me the 'ole games are not won on paper line, but that is loser talk from people who are fans of teams that are just not as good. At this point of the year, we can only analyze things with the information we have which just so happens supports the notion the Mets are significantly better than every other team in the National League.

Also, they could very well be one of the top three teams in the entire Major Leagues. While the NL is generally referred to as the junior circuit or AAAA, the Mets are an AL powerhouse-esque team. They can stack up with anyone and I do include the Red Sox in there as well. While I do not disagree the Red Sox are the top team in the league, there are a few teams that are close behind and the Mets are one of those teams.

If the Mets do not get flooded with complacency again, they should roll over the league. They have three legitimate MVP candidates and one of the favorites to win the Cy Young Award. You would be hard pressed to find many holes on the team that will break camp and head up North. The bullpen will be very deep if Duaner comes back strong, the rotation is five deep, and the lineup has no holes in it and is well balanced to boot. Get excited. This Met team is much closer to great than good.

* * *

Too right handed or not, Fukodome needs to bat second. Actually, he should bat first. Who the hell decided that Alfonso Soriano and his .327 career OBP is a leadoff hitter? Am I the only person who is missing something here? Gordy seems to get it, but Lou does not. I would worry about breaking up righties after I worry about making sure the guys at the top of the order get on base.

Good times...

He wanted Johan Santana and Andy Pettitte to both be in the New York Yankees rotation this season. The Yankees decided to go in another direction, keeping all their kid pitchers and banking on the veteran Pettitte.

"The bottom line is that I would have liked to have them both," Steinbrenner told The Post on the eve of Petite’s arrival at spring training.

I cannot wait. Johan will be ruling the baseball universe while the kiddies will have some growing pains in the Bronx. Old Hank is going to have a coronary.

Pedro is proud of what he has done.

"I dominated that era and I did it clean," he said. "I can stand by my numbers and I can be proud of them."

And dominate he did.

"I have a small frame and when I hurt all I could do was take a couple of Aleve or Advil, a cup of coffee and a little mango and an egg -- and let it go!" he said.

As if you needed another reason to not argue with Rob Neyer’s assertion that David Wright is the favorite to win the MVP Award. I think things are setting up nicely for the Mets to dominate the 2008 Awards and make some serious noise in the playoffs.

Jon Heyman tries to rank the top ten GMs. Always a mighty tough endeavor, but I think he did well. I actually think Jon Daniels should have cracked the top ten for what he is building in Texas and Kenny Williams should probably be knocked out. I'm a big Williams fan because he is go-er, but I would say he is out of the top ten. Oh, 'Stand' Pat Gillick should be out as well. What makes him one of the best in the game?

Carlos feels like he is ready to rebound this season and I think he will most assuredly be better. How much better? Let us not go crazy, but he will be much more of a contributor in '08 than he was in '07.

Interesting tidbit...

When Delgado entered the clubhouse, reliever Matt Wise reminded him of their first meeting, back on Aug.15, 2000, when Wise was a rookie with the Angels and Delgado was a Blue Jay. Angels manager Mike Scioscia told Wise to throw Delgado four straight fastballs inside. Delgado squared to bunt and Wise unintentionally drilled him in the groin - the first hit batter of Wise's career. The two didn't cross paths again until they bumped into each other two months later at a Newport Beach, Calif., restaurant, when Delgado was visiting Shawn Green. A scared Wise hopped in his car and drove off.

The positive reports about Duaner are great to hear. The Mets are seemingly putting together a shut down bullpen.

'Tis great days we live in. It is all shits and giggles in the Met camp with Santana there, Sanchez looking great, Wright being sugary, new outlooks abound, etc. while the Yankees have to deal with a blubbering Andy Pettitte. Awesome.

If Matthews is still yapping....

...Omar is doing the right thing. It is hard to even know where to start with this one.

They shed Lastings Milledge, Paul Lo Duca and Tom Glavine. In return, they brought in Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, paid more money to Ramon Castro, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes and Endy Chavez, and issued a stern warning to Duaner Sanchez to stay out of taxicabs in South Florida at 2 in the morning.

Meanwhile, Johan Santana still is a Twin, A-Rod still is a Yankee and Reyes still is a Met.

And yet, to quote the words of Mets VP David Howard, "If you look at it objectively, [we] are a championship-caliber, playoff-contending team."

And if you look at it rationally, Howard, or whoever is writing his material, very well may be out of his mind.

So, let me get this straight. A team that was one game away from the playoffs last year and either remained the same or slightly improved (depending upon who you talk to) is not a playoff-contending team? It is completely inconceivable that a rotation led by Pedro, Maine, and Ollie with a lineup led by Reyes, Wright, and Beltran can make the playoffs with possible above average production at every position with the exception of second base?

Hmmmm....

They act as if last season was some kind of hallucination, that the historic collapse (they led the Phillies by seven games on Sept. 12 with 17 games to play) never really happened, that despite what the NL East standings showed Oct. 1, the Mets actually were the best team in baseball and, as such, didn't really need much in the way of tinkering in the offseason.

I would not say they are ignoring it, but would you prefer they deal F-Mart, Church, Gomez, Pelfrey, Guerra, and Mulvey for Santana? Omar is trying to do what he can to improve the 2008 Mets within reason, but the team with the best off-season simply earned that crown by re-signing their own players. In other words, there was not much to be done. Garza or Haren would have been nice and it is hard to think that the Mets could not get a comparable deal together for Haren, but Omar was trying.

What really happened here is that once again, the fans are being forced to pay for the failings of the players. When the Mets bombed out of the playoffs, they lost anywhere from $2 million to $15 million in postseason income. Somebody had to make up that shortfall. It wasn't going to be the players and it certainly wasn't going to be the Wilpons.

That leaves, well, you.

Strangely enough I agree with him here. The price hike was a little much for me given the state of the Mets and how much cash they pocketed from their playoff run.

But sooner or later, the smoke will clear, the air will warm and it will be baseball season again. The Mets will be back in business with roughly the same cast of characters, the same set of built-in excuses, the same big talk and the same small expectations.

But then, you know what they say in Flushing: Around here, there is no offseason.

I guess they shouldn't even bother to play. They should send home the two guys who should have won the MVPs the last two years in Beltran and Wright, they should send the most electric baseball player home and tell him to pick up a new hobby, they should tell Pedro he rehabbed for nothing and he can go sit under a mango tree, Maine and Ollie are hitting their prime and set to build on their '07 success but should take an extended vacation, Wagner should go ride some more tractors, Heilman finally gets his wish to not come out the bullpen...the only catch is he is won't be pitching at all...etc.

Why bother? I love how the Mets are done and the Yankees are locks. Two rookies in the rotation paired with Mussina at the back end in a highly competitive American League sounds like a recipe for success to me. Why is no one saying the Yankees need Santana? Let us not forget about Posada's likely regression and one of the worst defenses money can buy and the Mets are the only ones in New York with problems. I like the Yankees long term direction with all that young pitching, but it would be foolish to think they do not hit any bumps in the road. In fact, I would not be shocked to see the Yankees home in October while the Mets are playing. That of course is not the worst thing for the Yankees who need to let Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba develop, but it is simply not that much of a stretch.

* * *

A little NL East info for your bad selves.

Tim (DC): Nate, how tough is it to make projections for totally new parks? Thinking about the Nats new park, and guys like Dukes, Milledge, etc.

Nate Silver: It's not *that* hard if you plug in the field dimensions, geography, and so forth. We have it playing as a very mild pitchers' park -- like a 98 or 99 -- though the word from insiders is that the wind patterns are such that it will play more like a 95.

In these supercharged offensive times, it is good to see another pitcher's park spring up.

charlesford (arlington, va): Can you give me any hopeful PECOTAs for a Nationals player (not named Zimmerman)? I'm guessing one of the new, young outfielders might be our only hope.

Nate Silver: Lastings Milledge: .289/.358/.478. Really, if that team didn't have such a godawful middle infield, the offense could be quite all right.

There are many of you, including me, that probably did not want to read that. If that is how it shakes out, there will be plenty of dissension in the ranks.

Darren (NY): Care to expound on the NL East race? Seems there are three teams one could make a credible case for.

Nate Silver: It should be very competitive. The one group I'm relatively less optimistic about are the Phillies, who are still giving too much away at the back end of their rotation.

I really feel like it is the Mets slightly ahead of the Braves in overall talent, but the Phillies are in third and it is not all that close. However, as much as I hate intangibles, the Phillies seem to have something going on there and seemingly have more of drive to win.

That being said, I think it comes down to the Braves and the Mets with the Mets taking it. And no, it is never too early for predictions.

Jayson Stark lays down an opinion on the Santana fiasco.

Good question. Where's the big-league-ready, can't-miss centerpiece player the Twins said they had to have in that Mets proposal?

Carlos Gomez is a guy with enticing tools, but most teams don't view him as the kind of Jose Reyes cloned talent the Mets portray him to be.

Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber are looked at as No. 4 starters in their best-case scenarios.

And Deolis Guerra has an eye-popping arm. But he's only 18 years old -- "and he doesn't even have the semblance of a breaking ball right now," said one scout.

Maybe the Twins think the Mets are so anxious to reel in Santana that they'll add Mike Pelfrey and/or outfield stud Fernando Martinez to the package. But there has been no indication the Mets will ever do that.

So while the Yankees and Red Sox backskate away from the deals they almost made, the Mets have obviously decided there's no reason to sweeten this pot. What they're telling the Twins, essentially is: "This may not be what you want -- but it's better than two draft picks."

There are people inside the Twins' organization who believe they have to move Santana before spring training. But unless they can justify why they turned down much more attractive packages in December, they may have maneuvered themselves into a situation where that has become practically impossible.

Trying to justify passing up any offer is a slipper slope. However, the Twins are where they are and the fact remains that the Mets offer may lack names but not talent. Jayson Stark writes many interesting things, but I still think he is off here.

"Most" teams don't view Gomez as a 'Jose Reyes' cloned talent? Humber and Mulvey are 4th starters at best? Thems strong words Mister Stark. Really, I would be quite happy hanging on to these trash prospects. Especially F-Mart, Gomez, Mulvey, and Guerra.

Last season, F-Mart was 18th and Gomez was 34th in the top 100 according to Baseball Prospectus and did nothing to lessen their standing as a prospect. Guerra catapulted up the charts this season and might be a top 25 prospect.

BA had F-Mart as the 22nd best prospect and Gomez as the 60th. I also know from chats that Jim Callis loves Deolis so I feel comfortable projecting him in the top 50. Of course we will not know until the to 100 list for '08 is posted, but they should be out soon and I just cannot understand why these falsities are being perpetuated.

From DG.....and more stuff you might not want to read:


9. Lastings Milledge, RF, Nationals

The trade that sent Milledge to the Nationals from the Mets in exchange for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider figures to be a steal for Washington. Milledge has exceptional skills at the plate, and he's a smooth defender in the outfield. Milledge's attitude problems were grossly overblown by the New York media, so the change of scenery may serve him well. Milledge put up solid numbers last year in limited duty with the Mets, and let's not forget that in 2005 he hit .337 in the Eastern League as a 20-year-old. Also, the Nats' new park figures to be much more hitter-friendly than RFK. Milledge should come up big in '08.

The dude can play. Bowden is going to be happy about this trade, but I think Church is going to do enough to not make Met fans jump off of ledge.

Also from DG. I am not sure what is funnier...the video or the comments.

I am no stranger to sensationalism so I feeling comfy chalking this up to that.

Colleague Steve Popper offered the Mets sound advice in Wednesday's Record, urging them to hurry up and trade for Johan Santana. Whatever it takes, is the message Omar Minaya needs to hear, because unless Santana is wearing a Mets' uniform by opening day, they can forget about winning the East in 2008.

This is no doomsday prediction. The Mets have been in decline ever since Carlos Beltran looked at strike three in Game 7 of the NL Championship Series in 2006. The ghosts hung around last year, ruining what should've been a smooth ride to the playoffs. That means the Mets are 0-for-2 in the two seasons during which they've had the most talent in the National League and its biggest payroll. Willie Randolph has to prove he still has the clubhouse (not to mention use the bullpen more prudently), which means his job is on the line.

The Phillies have every reason to feel that way, of course. The Mets need a drastic, sea-change event to reverse their slide, both in the standings and in their rivals' perception of them. Santana is the antidote. Without him, those ghosts could be a problem again this summer.

Right. Because if the other teams have a negative perception in regards to the Mets, that is a bad thing. Who gives a shit what the Phillies or Braves think? Whatever happened to good old fashioned evaluation? I look at three teams having a chance at the NL East. I will not deny the Mets are not head and shoulders above anyone, but to say they have no shot? Please. Take a little more time out of your day to be more creative and write an article with substance.

Buster's Top Stories in 2008

Top stories, eh?

1. Where will Johan Santana be traded, and when will he be traded?
The Mets would love to have Santana, but Twins' talent evaluators view the Mets' prospects as being dramatically inferior to those of the Red Sox and Yankees.

Though the Mets deals are closer than many people think, the perception of course is quite the opposite. However, Mets could offer a deeper package. Hughes is the only blue chip getting tossed around really. Ellsbury has taken on a life of his own, Lester is really good, Lowrie is a better player than given credit for, Melky is just absurdly overrated...

My thoughts remain the same and if the Twins really want to move him, the Mets can put something pretty solid and rather comparable, if not better, than the other ones being bandied about.

2. Just how many runs will the Tigers score -- and will it be enough to prop up their thin pitching staff?

Yes. That one was easy.

3. Can the Colorado Rockies follow up and grow on their 2007 success

No, no, and no. I'm sensing that 83 wins would be a windfall for this team that plays in what has become the National League's best division. Also, just as the Mets needed a historic collapse to miss the playoffs, they needed an equally historic run to make the playoffs. They finally developed some pitching and according to Fox they have the best defense to ever be assembled on the field, but a lot can go wrong with this team and they need a lot to go better than expected.

4. Can the Mets rebound from their 2007 collapse?

Despite the efforts of GM Omar Minaya, the Mets still have not added a front-of-the-rotation starter to fill the vacancy created by the departure of Tom Glavine.

Fair or not, right or wrong, this is the reality for the Mets: If they don't make the playoffs this year, then the jobs of manager Willie Randolph and some players -- and maybe even Minaya -- could be on the line, depending on how the year plays out.

Of course they can rebound. They were one measly game away from not having to rebound. As for this top-of-the rotation crap, can we stop? Yes, Tom Glavine is going to the Hall of Fame. We get it. However, that does not mean every time he is on the field is a precious sight that we need to behold. He was 100% average last season and his '07 production is easily replaced.

Willie's job on the line? Dare to dream.

5. Will Kosuke Fukudome make the Cubs the favorite in the NL Central

On paper, he would seem to fit the Cubs' perfectly -- he's a left-handed hitter among many right-handed hitters, he's athletic, he hits for some power, and he gets on base.

They are favorites for sure. The Brewers losing their closer is going to cost them a few games and I just cannot see anyone else stepping up in that bullpen. Gagne is a nice move, but Cordero was historically good for quite a while.

6. Can Joe Torre make a difference in Los Angeles?

The Dodgers' clubhouse was fractured at year's end, and Grady Little couldn't repair the rift between the older and younger players on the Los Angeles roster. Maybe Torre can get more out of the Dodgers, with a lineup that has been augmented by the addition of Andruw Jones and a rotation that now includes Hiroki Kuroda.

Anyone with common sense could make a difference in LA. Play the young guys. BOOM! I just did his job for him. Let LaRoche play everyday. Let Kemp play everyday. Let Loney play. Billingsley is a stud and a rotation of Kuroda, Billingsley, Penny, Lowe, and whomever is badass.

The bullpen is tight and the addition of Andruw Jones to a team that direly needed power is a great one. Even in his off year he was a valuable player that added some wins and he should rebound this year, however slightly. This team is the real deal and is well balanced. Torre is going to receive a lot of credit for this team doing well, but that is just poppycock (sorry for the harsh language). This team is a good team.

7. Can the aging Braves' rotation hold up?

Hmmmm...I thought in #4 you were wondering if the Mets can manage to replace Glavine's top o' the ro' production and now you are wondering if his aging body will be effective? Prediction. He will be effectively average. 4.50 ERA here we come!

8. Is Joe Girardi a genius or an idiot?

If the Yankees make the playoffs and win at least one round -- something the team hasn't done since 2004 -- then Girardi will be cast as a genius. And if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993, well, he's going to be cast as an idiot.

Only by Yankee fans. The Yankees are heading into 2008 with three rookie starters (or two and Mussina....choose your poison) and a suspect bullpen. Their outfield is really not all that good and first base is kind of bad as well. Posada had a career year at 35 and I fully expect him to be his normal .260 hitting self next season.

Would anyone be all that surprised if the Yankees a) do not make it out of the first round again or b) miss the playoffs by a hair altogether? Missing it by a hair while developing a nasty rotation on the right side of 30 is never a bad thing. However, asking Yankee fans to exhibit some perspective is asking a bit much.

9. Can the Red Sox defend their title?

They will go into the season as solid favorites to win the World Series, especially if they do manage to complete the deal for Santana. And if Boston wins its third title in five years, then the conversation about whether the Red Sox qualify as a dynasty will begin.

Why the hell not? They waltzed into the World Series and dominated everyone. They still are going to add the best pitching prospect in the minors into the mix in Buccholz, Daisuke should be better, they have Lester back and in for a 100% healthy season, and they have depth in Ellsbury and Lowrie ready to jump in and start kicking ass.

This team is actually going to be better than they were last year, which is disturbing to think about. All of this assumes they will not get Santana and if they do, I would like to revise my previous statement and say they are going to be much, much better. Three titles in five years in any era is a dynasty in my book much less this era. Over the last five years, no team will have been as good as the Red Sox and that qualifies as a dynasty.

10. Who will get Erik Bedard?

If he goes to Seattle, is this really a big story? They are still a fringy team that made their future a bit darker.

11. How good (or bad) will Oakland be?

I may be missing something here, but how is this a big storyline either? They certainly will not be historically bad, which might be newsworthy, and they are waiving the white flag and conceding the season already.

12. Ken Griffey Jr. closes on 600 homers.

He has 593 and counting. And whether you think it's right or wrong, fair or unfair, his accomplishments will inevitably be cast as genuine, at a time when the other great player of his generation, Bonds, will be in court.

Griffey is flat out nasty. What he did from '90 to '00 was insane. OPS+ of 135, 155, 149, 171!, 170!, 122, 153, 165, 150, 139, and 133. For good measure, he dropped an OPS+ of 145 and 144 on us in the new millennium. Throw on top of that ten straight Gold Gloves starting in 1990 that were actually deserved. If he never played again after 2000, he would be a Hall of Famer.

Of course young kids like Benny are too young to remember all of this going down, but we would not be having a discussion about the possibility of Alex Rodriguez being the best player of all time if Griffey Jr.'s had his wheels had not failed him.

I hope this is a gigantic story and he is celebrated as one of the best to every play baseball.

13. Greg Maddux closes on Roger Clemens, and Warren Spahn.

Who doesn't like this guy? Ok, well maybe a lot of people, but I am not one of them. He will not get the 16 wins he needs to pass Spahn this year, but he will get it in 2009. Could he make a run at 400 wins? However small the chance is, yes.

The guy is basically a knuckleballer since his fastball dances around better than most knuckleballers. It is a true mystery how he pulls it off, but as long as he can keep hurling the ball towards the plate, he can be useful to some team and pile on some victories.

* * *

I wonder if the Mets could have come up with a Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Ronny Cedeno type deal before inking Castillo? Of course this ignores the fact that MacPhail was probably not ready to move him back then and was asking for better prospects for Ramon Hernandez at the time.

Maybe MacPhail finally realized trying to rip people off is no way to improve your club long term? He is a smart guy who has been around for a while so I would like to think he already knew that, but he certainly was not acting that way.

Joe! Say it ain't so! Reason has no place in these discussions.

Ultimately, the Mets might be the best fit.

They have the greatest need. They have the money to sign Santana. And they play in the National League, where he's less likely to haunt the Twins.

The players the Mets would send the Twins aren't household names. There's no Jose Reyes or David Wright. The offers aren't perfect.

But it's become abundantly clear the Twins won't be able to make the perfect trade here. Not for a two-time Cy Young winner. Not for a lefthander who is 93-44 for his career and won't turn 29 until March.

No team is going to give the Twins everything they need when that team must turn around and hand Santana a five- or six-year contract extension worth at least $20 million per year.

According to people with knowledge of the discussions, the Mets have offered top pitching prospect Deolis Guerra, along with center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

Really, that is a great deal for the Twins if that is what is on the table. They like Gomez and he plays a smoooooth centerfield while having unlimited upside. Whether he gets there is another argument. Guerra is a legit blue chipper and Humber and Mulvey are still very good prospects that are almost certainly going to contribute on the big league level in the starting rotation in my eyes.

Now, would I do it? Hmmmmm....The Mets still have Fernando, who the Twins still want but should not be able to get, and still have Mike Pelfrey. Ideally the Mets keep Humber or Mulvey and swap in a younger guy, but I think that blows the deal up from the Twins perspective. You know what? After all my bitching, I would pull the trigger on that for the simple fact the Mets retain their best prospect and still have a young arm in the mix with upside, who essentially would have been their 3rd or 4th best prospect had he still qualified. It hurts a bit, but that is a palatable deal for both sides and only sort of guts the system rather than completely guts the system.

If they are insistent upon getting Fernando back, well then they have to scale back their demands significantly. Martinez has the chance to be that good and is better than any sole prospect the Red Sox have offered and might even be more valuable than Hughes. Yeah, I said it...what are you going to do about it? Hopefully Omar realizes these things and holds tight. The Mets can put something competitive together and it is up to the Twins if they want to pull the trigger.

In related news, the Yankees might give up on Santana. You cannot make this stuff up.

The Brewers like Cameron and that would be a great move for them. I still like the Cubs over the Brewers and especially if they get Roberts, but Hart, Cameron, and Braun in the outfield with Hardy, Fielder, Hall, and Weeks on the infield is rather insane. Lots of guys that can hit over 20 homers there. In fact, every single one of those guys can hit at least 20 homers.

Delgado will bounce back. Not hitting .300 with 35 homers back, but back.

Nice!

Faced with foreclosure on her Russellville, Indiana home, Christina Snyder allegedly concocted the kind of plan that now has insurance executives on edge.

According to the county prosecutor, the 31-year-old Snyder allegedly offered to pay a neighbor $5,000 to help her burn down her house and make it look like a botched rape attempt - all in order to claim $80,000 in insurance money. Snyder wanted the neighbor to bind her hands in duct tape, write "whore" on her shirt, and then help her escape once the blaze was set, the prosecutor says. The neighbor demurred, instead reporting Snyder to police.

I really think writing "whore" on her shirt was a great touch. If some people could apply their evil genius part of their brain to good things, we would be alright.