A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Postseason Odds

Here are the newest Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus.

Average wins by position in NL East: 95.7 80.8 76.5 73.0 68.7
NL East    W  L Pct3  Avg W  Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 51 34 .546 95.7 66.3 98.14559 .52898 98.67457
Phillies 38 46 .446 74.7 87.3 .39386 1.49210 1.88596
Braves 38 48 .471 76.1 85.9 .57064 2.56050 3.13114
Nationals 38 49 .444 72.8 89.2 .14393 .60725 .75118
Marlins 36 46 .470 75.6 86.4 .74599 2.31630 3.06229
Ummm....yeah. Just chew on that for a second. It is delectable. You cannot find a team with better playoff odds. In fact, the closest team is about 30% away. I think the Wilpons can feel safe printing playoff tickets.

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  • Rob Neyer throws out some love for Señor Perfeción.

    Webb Ctiy MO: who is the first half nl mvp

    SportsNation Rob Neyer: "Albert Pujols" is the easy answer, and perhaps the right one. But I'd take a long look at Carlos Beltran, too. He's played more than Pujols, and of course he's a great deal more valuable in the field and on the bases.
    But the question of the day goes to...
    Rob (Chicago): Who cares about Pittsburgh, K.C., Tampa Bay. I've asked a few questions about the WORLD SERIES CHAMPION WHITE SOX and still can't get my questions answered....Hey ROB, you SUCK! Post that!

    SportsNation Rob Neyer: Okay. But that's not much of a question.
    Matt is smoking too much of that medical marijuana in Cali...
    Matt (San Bruno, Ca): The Braves WILL be back. Trust me.

    SportsNation Rob Neyer: Sorry, but I find your argument less than completely convincing. Mazzone's gone, and Cox and Schuerholz won't be there much longer. Do you think there's something magical elixir in the Atlanta water supply that creates a winning team no matter who's in charge? The Braves do have a number of talented young players, and I certainly expect them to compete for division titles over the next few seasons. But the Mets are the Mets, the Phillies have a huge market to themselves, and the Marlins are loaded with young talent.
    Let it go Braves fans. Let it go.

  • Prediction....Mike Pelfrey wins today. My prediction that Jose Lima would win last night did not work out so well, but this one will.

  • Sounds like Aaron has some issues going on in his head.

  • It does not matter where he pitches, he's filthy.

    he 27-year-old rookie relieved Darren Oliver and froze Alfredo Amezaga with a 96 mph fastball at the knees. Owens then got Hanley Ramirez to line out and Dan Uggla to ground out to short in a surprisingly crisp debut.

    "It was very exciting to get out there for the first time," Owens said. "I felt more comfortable than I thought I was going to. I went out there and took a deep breath and tried to keep my emotions under control. I think I did that."

  • Not very surprisingly, Jose Lima sucked last night and did not make it out of the fourth. He have up a grand slam to Dontrelle Willis and I don't care who goes down, he should never pitch again for the Mets.

    "Sometimes baseball puts you on a test," Lima said. "I'm not quitting. That's one thing. Trust me. Nobody is going to take that jersey away from me. I don't care if I have to die on the field."

    Quit. It's for the best.
  • Friday, July 07, 2006

    It's Go Time: Mike Pelfrey Edition

    Was it Mike Pelfrey's destiny ever to become an integral part of the 2006 New York Mets rotation? Probably not. I'm sure there are a lot of fans, if not a majority of them, that would like to not see Mike Pelfrey rushed. However, there are simply not many other options. Mike Pelfrey has been far from dominant in 2006 though he has pitched very well. His h/9 is 8.14 and his WHIP is 1.30 are far from dominat numbers that would be expected from a prospect of his ilk. He has been more in lines of what was expected of him all season of late. Including a four run, five inning hiccup, Pelfrey has put up a 5.73 h/9, 3.71 k/bb, 10.64 k/9, 0.95 WHIP, and a 2.05 ERA with a 4-1 record in his last seven games and all four of his wins came in his last five games.

    "If we feel he's our best option," said Mets general manager Omar Minaya, "we will explore that option."

    The Mets have options not named Mike Pelfrey if they did not want to rush their top prospect. They could certainly work around having to use him since they have such a big lead, but at this point, why? It may not be ideal, but Pelfrey may be able to bring something to the table. With Soler getting demoted after a series of horrible outings, Traschel very unaweinspriing despite winning six consecutive decisions (4.67 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP during that streak), El Duque being solid, but still a back-end guy, Pedro struggling of late and now heading to the DL, and Glavine with a 4.93 ERA in June and a 5.40 ERA in July, something needs to be happen. Pelfrey will come in and attack hitters and may shape himself into a useful starter a la John Lackey in 2002.

    The trade market does not look great, but the Mets might want to find out what they have internally prior to giving up more talent. While I think Heilman still might be worth a look and bringing in Henry Owens to replace him in the bullpen permently, the Mets are still reluctant to do so. At this point, there are no other options. The Mets need to solidify this rotation that looked a lot brighter a few weeks ago and it is time to see what Mike Pelfrey can do. I personally like that there are still some good options and I hope that Owens can show something while he is up here and gets a chance because as I've said before, his possible presence in a second half bullpen could very well be big boon to this club.

    * * *

  • Henry Owens is up because a bit of a snafu.

    The Mets attempted to recall Bell to the active roster as a corresponding roster move when they placed ace Pedro Martinez on the 15-day disabled list before Thursday's game, but were unable to do so because Martinez was disabled retroactively to June 29, when Bell was an active member of the Mets.

    Not really a big deal and it could be a blessing in disguise if Owens just comes out and pounds batters, but it's good to know the Mets crack staff is all over these types of rules.

  • The White Sox get the Final Vote winner for the second year in the row and Nomar Garciapparra makes an surprising return to the All-Star game after most of us thought he was done. Mr. Billy Wagner might end up going anyway as Pedro Martinez is headed for the DL and actually replaced Pedro last season on the All-Star roster. However, if he gets picked, he should let things be and pass it up and let Chris Capuano go because he is more deserving.

  • I know Gennaro Filice probably stayed up all night doing this, but this is scary. Very, very, very scary. He also had a link to some bizarre email sent by Brian Bannister to Adam Rubin. Maybe Jay Horowitz is on a vacation.

  • Mr. Billy Wagner speaks candidly about the Philles and I'm sure they will not appreciate it, but he is probably right.

  • The Mets sold 3,000,000 tickets for the first time in seventeen years. The only topped 3,000,000 in 1987 and 1988 and they should eclipse that mark later this season and set a club record.

  • Evan MacLane threw a gem as the Tides won 1-0. Milledge went 0 for 4 in case you are curious.

    The Binghamton Mets took two from the Bowie Baysox. In game one, Ambiorix Concepcion went 3 for 3 with two doubles and two RBIs. In game two, Michael Devaney went the distance in a shortened seven inning game as Carlos Gomez went 2 for 3.

    Mike Carp went 3 for 4 with a double and an RBI and Jesus Flores went 2 for 5 with a run scored and a double in St. Lucie's loss.

    Nick Evans came up big in Hagerstown's win with a 4 for 4 night with two doubles and three RBIs.

  • Ken Davidoff says pampering Pedro is the right thing to do and I could not agree more. Forget sitting out a week or two, sit the guy until September and have him start throwing mid-August. The Mets are sitting comfy, imagine having Pedro in early season form in September and October?

  • The Yankees will make the playoffs...right??? RIGHT????

    "I know every Yankee fan in creation has inner faith they will find a way because for the last decade they have," Chris (Mad Dog) Russo said Wednesday on WFAN. "... Maybe this is the year they don't navigate the mine field."

    The Yankees are hurting. But if they miss the playoffs, it might not be a bad thing for the Yankees. First off, they have figured it out somewhat. The Yankees have held onto Robinson "Swing at Everything" Cano, Chien Ming "Can't Make 'Em Swing and Miss to Save My Life" Wang, Phil Hughes, and Eric Duncan. In the past, they would have been all gone, but the Yankees realize again how important it is to have young guys come up through the system and the value of not having an All-Star at every position. If they miss the playoffs, it will probably mean they stood still and did not give up what little young talent they have left. So it's not all bad.

  • Deolis hits the Prospect Hot Sheet for the first time in his career and is probably the youngest guy on there.

    Deolis Guerra, rhp, Mets (Low Class A Hagerstown): The 17-year-old is being given more innings and is coming on strong. In his last six starts he is 3-1, 1.77 with a 21-8 strikeout-walk ratio in 30 innings.

  • The Yankees signed Jesus Montero for $2,000,000. That presumably knocks them out of the Francisco Pena race even though they plan to move Montero to first. The Mets are interested in Pena, but it's believed that the Cubs are the front-runners for Pena.

  • BP says Glavine has been lucky.

    Top 5 Luckiest NL Starters, by LUCK
    Player           Team    W      L     E(W)     E(L)   LUCK
    Tom Glavine NYN 11 2 8.1 5.0 5.88
    Ryan Madson PHI 8 5 4.6 5.9 5.31
    Wandy Rodriguez HOU 9 5 6.3 7.2 4.95
    Gavin Floyd PHI 4 3 2.5 6.2 4.74
    Miguel Batista ARI 8 5 5.7 6.3 3.64
    Ouch, Madson and Floyd Lucky? Wow.
  • Thursday, July 06, 2006

    I am still alive.

    Really, I am. Despite some tremendous effort by my friend, I am still breathing. The Mets are the first National League team to 50 wins. The Mets are the first New York team to 50 wins. Mike Pelfrey's seven inning, two hit, one run, and eleven strikeout performance on Saturday inches him closer to big show. Deolis Guerra has been pitching frighteningly well lately. In his last five starts, he has a 1.37 ERA, 6.15 h/9, 0.34 hr/9, 6.84 k/9, and 2.86 k/bb. He had his longest outing with 6.1 innings in his last outing with a career high of six strikeouts. That came after his five inning, no hit performance outing the time before that. This kid has a seriously high ceiling. Hopefully normalcy returns soon so normal posting does.