A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Postseason Odds

Here are the newest Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus.

Average wins by position in NL East: 95.7 80.8 76.5 73.0 68.7
NL East    W  L Pct3  Avg W  Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 51 34 .546 95.7 66.3 98.14559 .52898 98.67457
Phillies 38 46 .446 74.7 87.3 .39386 1.49210 1.88596
Braves 38 48 .471 76.1 85.9 .57064 2.56050 3.13114
Nationals 38 49 .444 72.8 89.2 .14393 .60725 .75118
Marlins 36 46 .470 75.6 86.4 .74599 2.31630 3.06229
Ummm....yeah. Just chew on that for a second. It is delectable. You cannot find a team with better playoff odds. In fact, the closest team is about 30% away. I think the Wilpons can feel safe printing playoff tickets.

* * *

  • Rob Neyer throws out some love for Señor Perfeción.

    Webb Ctiy MO: who is the first half nl mvp

    SportsNation Rob Neyer: "Albert Pujols" is the easy answer, and perhaps the right one. But I'd take a long look at Carlos Beltran, too. He's played more than Pujols, and of course he's a great deal more valuable in the field and on the bases.
    But the question of the day goes to...
    Rob (Chicago): Who cares about Pittsburgh, K.C., Tampa Bay. I've asked a few questions about the WORLD SERIES CHAMPION WHITE SOX and still can't get my questions answered....Hey ROB, you SUCK! Post that!

    SportsNation Rob Neyer: Okay. But that's not much of a question.
    Matt is smoking too much of that medical marijuana in Cali...
    Matt (San Bruno, Ca): The Braves WILL be back. Trust me.

    SportsNation Rob Neyer: Sorry, but I find your argument less than completely convincing. Mazzone's gone, and Cox and Schuerholz won't be there much longer. Do you think there's something magical elixir in the Atlanta water supply that creates a winning team no matter who's in charge? The Braves do have a number of talented young players, and I certainly expect them to compete for division titles over the next few seasons. But the Mets are the Mets, the Phillies have a huge market to themselves, and the Marlins are loaded with young talent.
    Let it go Braves fans. Let it go.

  • Prediction....Mike Pelfrey wins today. My prediction that Jose Lima would win last night did not work out so well, but this one will.

  • Sounds like Aaron has some issues going on in his head.

  • It does not matter where he pitches, he's filthy.

    he 27-year-old rookie relieved Darren Oliver and froze Alfredo Amezaga with a 96 mph fastball at the knees. Owens then got Hanley Ramirez to line out and Dan Uggla to ground out to short in a surprisingly crisp debut.

    "It was very exciting to get out there for the first time," Owens said. "I felt more comfortable than I thought I was going to. I went out there and took a deep breath and tried to keep my emotions under control. I think I did that."

  • Not very surprisingly, Jose Lima sucked last night and did not make it out of the fourth. He have up a grand slam to Dontrelle Willis and I don't care who goes down, he should never pitch again for the Mets.

    "Sometimes baseball puts you on a test," Lima said. "I'm not quitting. That's one thing. Trust me. Nobody is going to take that jersey away from me. I don't care if I have to die on the field."

    Quit. It's for the best.

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Thank god the Lima experiment is over. Hopefully the Reyes injury will be short term and the young pitching we have just received stay permanently. It seems that if we would trade a pitcher Heilmann maybe the one, he seems hittable and lately he can't hold leads.

    10:41 AM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    1) That percentage is off the friggin charts. But that's what happens when the rest of your division sucks donkey dong. Even with the rotation in a state of disarray, if the Mets don't blow through the NL playoffs, it will be a disaster.

    2) Beltran has been solid this season. It's really nice to see him pick himself up from where he was last year, and take off the way he has this year. That being said, Wright's production at the plate has been far more valuable than Beltrans. The hits have come at more opportune times for Wright, and more of his RBIs have come in big spots. Tran has way too many solo hrs when what they need are baserunners wreaking havok on the pads. Not getting down on Tran, just think that overall, Wright has been more of an MVP for this club than Tran. Hell, I think Reyes has been more of an MVP than Tran! Probably a very close second to Wright as far as I am concerned.

    3) Ah, Matt... so YOU'RE the one true Braves fan! Wow. Good for you, bro... good for you!

    4) You jinxy m-fer! You predicted Lima would come up big time, and look what happened! Damn you! It's like listening to Russo make predictions, and constantly have them go the other way. Why you... ::SHAKES FIST IN AIR::

    Pelfrey better come out on top, or I'm gonna hunt you down like a dirty dog... oh yeah... I will... ;o)

    5) Now or never for Owens. His numbers in the farm say it's time. He's 27 years old, and if there is any hope in taking advantage of that odd delivery, now is the time. Let's see if he can do this in the bigs, cause having a 27 year old continue to waste away in the minors is just stupid.

    11:53 AM

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Rob ic Chicago is the man. And Rob Neyer is the man for posting it and responding to it, haha.

    If by "back" he means "last place" then yes, Matt from Cali is right.

    I still trust Heilman there's nobody I would want more in the 7th or 8th inning. He'll fix whatever the problem is and have a sick 2nd half.

    Henry Owens is sick. Maybe put Heilman in the rotation in 2007 and have Owens in the bullpen... NICE!

    I was talking with my dad yesterday about Lima. There comes a time when people realize they're DONE. When will Lima realize it? Listen, I like Lima, he's fun and everything but he just sucks. When will it hit him that he should just hang it up, he's not even CLOSE to what he used to be, he's lost it all. What will it take with this guy?

    12:25 PM

    Blogger irishkeough said...

    Can someone tell me what the point of starting Lima is if you're going to use Oliver for five innings anyway? How about starting Oliver, and if he gets shelled, then bring in Lima to finish the game, regardless of how many pitches it takes.

    12:29 PM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    I love Reyes. I really do. I love what he adds to the team not only on the field, but also with regards to his sparkling personality. He truly is a catalyst in every sense of the word.

    But seriously, are these players made out of butter? Hockey players go out on the ice with broken ankles... and they have to SKATE on them!!! The kid has a few stitches in his pinky for christ's sake.

    Cmon son. Get out on the damn field and help your club kick the shit out of this AAA ball club.

    1:46 PM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    Wow. So tired of these crybabies! Dude, ya got hit, now take your base!

    Floyd's been plunked like 50 times in the last week alone! Intentional or not, Cabrerra's gotta shut the fuck up and take a base.

    Oh, and then this punk Fox announcer talkin about how Sanchez needs to be tossed fro the game! Are you serious?!?

    This is one of many things wrong with this game today. Could you imagine Bob Gibson pitching today? The guy would never get an official game in! He'd be tossed out before ever reaching the fifth inning every time!

    What a bunch of pussies. From the MLB top brass, to the umps, to the players.

    Welcome to MLP: Major League Pussyball.

    4:22 PM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    THe onyl reason I'll agree with you Paladin is becuase everytime i go to the ballpark I hope for 2 things.
    1. A Mets win
    or a 2. a rumble.

    #1 happens all the time, i'm ready to sacrifice #1 for #2...
    I wanna see a damn fight!

    - benny

    5:31 PM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    Oooooooooooooooooh Baby!

    LOL! Dude, I really thought he cracked out another slam! Oh, man. He just missed a second granny in his second at-bat.


    Ya know though, where the hell was THIS last game? Seriously. This club is soooo inconsistent at the plate.

    But man, was that fun to watch! Go Valentine!

    6:02 PM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    So it's the top of the 9th, and I am officially at the Skank/Tampa game full time. I was switching back and forth since it started to watch Kaz (I know I shouldn't, but I must torture myself), but since this one has been over for some time now, I'm gonna focus on the one that got away.

    Anyway... what an UGLY game! Glad to see the bats come out, but would have preferred them share the wealth. Too many left on base in the first two games, so I guess this one made up for them both.

    And what can I say about the pitching... YIKES! Marlins... well, my lord. Two pitchers (starter doesn't even get out of the second), both ERAs absolutely skyrocket! Probably the worst combined effort I've seen all season this year.

    As for Pelfrey's big debut, well he was erratic, but I'd like to think that was a result of first game jitters. He's got plenty of zip on the fastball, and it didn't diminish as the game progressed. I believe he threw a little over 100 pitches, and he still managed to keep that fastball in the mid-90's. Just like to see that fastball locate some plate in his next start.

    As for his off-speed stuff, I was pleasantly surprised at how many breaking balls he threw, and how good they looked. More he throws them, better he's gonna get.

    So not a perfect outing by any stretch of the imagination, but plenty of good things resulted in it. Also a blessing that the offense was able to do what it did, in an effort to give this kid a nice cushion to work with.

    Owens comes out again, and even he was all over the place. But, his second inning was significantly better than the first, and both were scoreless.

    Bottom line, the only reason to watch this game when it was all said and done was two fold:

    A) Gotta watch the young gun phenom

    B) Gotta see if this club can come back and not get embarrassed by the fish who were on the verge of taking this 4-game series.

    7:58 PM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    ::Crickets in the background::

    Hellloooooo! Anybody post here on the weekends?!? LOL!

    Anyway, terrific news with regards to Mets prospects. They've signed Tony Pena’s son, 16 year old Francisco Pena, for $750,000.

    He's supposed to be one of the best catching prospects in the history of the ENTIRE Dominican Republic! Sick!!!

    Now anything can happen with prospects, but this kid is supposed to be solid gold! Tremendous fielder, cannon for an arm, and an outstanding offensive player (might even be better than his defense which is nothin to sneeze at)!

    Bring him up! ;o) LMAO!

    I'm giddy...

    6:38 PM

    Anonymous Coop said...

    Hey Paldin - I would post here, but I'm recovering from going to three games in two days, and five games in six days!!! :)

    Agreed on all counts with Pelfrey. This kid is the real deal. With a little control, some seasoning and a few games versus some scrubs, he can be a MAJOR asset to the team down the road.

    What a win today, huh guys?


    8:30 PM

    Anonymous benny said...

    Paladin before you get you panties all wet, those quotes about him beign the best catcher in the history of the DOminican Republic are from his agent.
    Just keep that in mind and remember that, his agent said that ;-)

    9:49 PM

    Blogger Paladin said...

    See, now, you COULD just let me dream that we may very well have yet another no-doubter position player coming up in the next few years!

    You COULD do that, but instead you insist on being the killer of dreams...


    Damn you, benny... damn you to hell...

    7:40 AM

    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    The mets have played below par the last 2-3 weeks but then did that at the same time last year too.

    This yr though i am stoked. Henry Owens has me believing. Not just that he can suceed but unlike Bell and ring has really showed he can excel. (i'd like to see ring too this yr). But ala another blogger...i can see heilman finally traded away. That long rumored Heilman and nady deal for Zito may not be that fictious.

    As one article points out, I think milledge is a future all star. RF is his. His arm alone in RF is a difference maker.

    1:04 PM


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