Stick A Fork In Him

Pedro is done. He's in the twilight of his career. I mean have you seen his 2004 numbers? They were very un-Pedro-like. It is all downhill from here, his K/9 were down, he gave up a lot more homeruns in 2004 than in 2003 and 2002 combined. His ERA was the highest it's been since in his entire career. His BAA was up as was his SLG and OBP. His K/BB are out of control and not very Pedro-like. I really do not care if he is one year removed from Cy Young Award numbers, stick a fork in him. His best days are behind him.

But that Tim Hudson, that Tim Hudson is something else. He's going to be the ace of that Braves staff and the stud of the NL East. He'll be commanding $12 to $14 million per year when he hits the free agent market after the 2005 season and will be the crown jewel of the off season.

Umm..Not quite.

Pedro Martinez

Year	W	L	G	IP	H	H/9	R	HR	BB	BB/9	K's	K/9	K/BB	AVG	ERA
2002	30	20	4	199.1	144	6.5	50	13	40	1.81	239	10.79	5.98	.198	2.26
2003	29	14	4	187.2	147	7.1	46	7	47	2.27	206	9.93	4.38	.215	2.22
2004	33	16	9	217	193	8	94	26	61	2.53	227	9.41	3.72	.238	3.90
	92	50	17	603	484	7.2	190	46	148	2.21	672	10.3	4.54	.218	2.84

Tim Hudson

Year	W	L	G	IP	H	H/9	R	HR	BB	BB/9	K's	K/9	K/BB	AVG	ERA
2002	34	15	9	238.1	237	8.9	79	19	62	2.34	152	5.75	2.45	.263	2.98
2003	34	16	7	240	197	7.4	72	15	61	2.29	162	6.08	2.34	.223	2.70
2004	27	12	6	188.2	194	9.3	74	8	44	2.10	103	4.91	2.34	.267	3.53
	95	43	22	667	628	8.5	225	42	167	2.25	417	5.63	2.50	.250	3.04

Pedro Martinez has outperformed Tim Hudson in 2002 and 2003 and it is arguable that he was better than Hudson in 2004. When you take into account where Pedro pitched half of his games and the fact that Hudson posted a better ERA by only 0.36 and gave up less homeruns while getting beat in just about every other pitching category, it really looks like Pedro had a better year in my opinion. Hudson's 103 K's in 188.2 innings is fugly. Besides, Hudson's 2004 season looks strangely like this certain familiar player's 2003 season.

Year	W	L	G	IP	H	H/9	R	HR	BB	BB/9	K's	K/9	K/BB	AVG	ERA
2003	33	16	10	204.2	204	8.97	90	26	65	2.86	111	4.88	1.70	.264	3.78

I can safely say Pedro could not put up those numbers in a wheelchair.

If you missed Peter Gammon's article on the Mets yesterday, check it out. Here is a an excerpt from it:

Ron Shandler's "Baseball Forecaster" has a stat he uses to rate "dominance," a pure stuff indicator. Here are some of the pitchers switching leagues: Johnson (11.1), Clement (9.5), Martinez (9.4), Danny Haren (8.5), Wright (7.8), Wade Miller (7.6), Pavano (5.8), Mulder (5.6) and Hudson (5.0).

Tim was never a hit and miss guy and relies on his ability to get groundball after groundball and he will never be able to dominate like Pedro Martinez does. When Pedro had a down year at 32, people say he's done and the Mets overpaid. I'm just not so sure of that. Huddie will be commanding similar money for a guy who has only pitched one year that could be considered spectacular. He will also turn 31 in the summer after he signs his big upcoming contract and I can predict that the team that signs him will not have negative press written about their newest purchase. If Hudson is anything but the Hudson of '03, then I sure hope his deal gets the same overpaid tag that Martinez got. Even on Pedro's worst year in terms of BAA, he was still .006 points lower than Hudson's career BAA. Over 13 years, Pedro has a ridiculous .209 BAA.

I'm putting a bet out there that Pedro will put up better numbers Hudson in their first exposure to the National League. I'll even bet that he outperforms Hudson over the next four years. He is the best pitcher in the NL East and has a lot of gas in the tank. Tim is good, but he cannot dominate like El Diva and as Gammons said in his article, El Diva will be contending the Cy Young award in 2005.

* * *

In case you missed it, Jon Heyman has a nice article that takes plenty of digs at David Sloane.

The secondary reason to be relieved: no more Sloane. This man is a menace. Sloane somehow found time to carry on a many-week campaign to negotiate praise for himself, too (yes, David, you did well, not counting all the folks you annoyed along the way). His e-mails were like spam, trumpeting every solitary offer, including the $33-million Mets bid that actually annoyed him.

The e-mails were barely worth reading after awhile, except for amusement's sake. Like the one where he threatened to cut anyone off who called him while he was attending a Joe Cocker concert.

Admittedly, that's the one e-mail where I actually learned something: Who knew Joe Cocker was still playing?

Take that Sloane.

Some quotes from an article on Mets.com

"Defense is an important part of the game," Hernandez said. "I think this is a better fielding infield than we had in '86. HoJo [third baseman Howard Johnson] had a wild arm and [second basemen] Wally [Backman] and [Tim] Teufel were marginal, so I'd say this is better than '86.

"I think David Wright was a little nervous last year and had some jitters and this year, especially with Mientkiewicz at first, won't get all nervous. It's not going to be a problem. I think the only thing you have to worry about is [Kaz] Matsui turning the double play. Otherwise he'll be fine, and [Jose] Reyes is fine. No one is perfect, so it's always good to have a guy over there who can save you."

HoJo? Under the bus.
Backman? Under the bus.
Teufel? Under the bus.

That's one of the reasons I like when Keith calls games on TV. They guy just tells it like it is and he knows what he is talking about.

"I think it's unbelievable," Wright said. "Just the aura of him defensively over there can boost the confidence of a young infield. You're absolutely conscious of having a guy like Mientkiewicz at first base. There are some balls you try to catch and throw real quick and now you know you can just throw it in the vicinity and he'll scoop it up."

"The most important thing is that I'm not hurting my hamstrings anymore," said Reyes, who missed nearly three months last season with a torn hamstring before a fractured fibula cost him seven weeks later in the year. "I have no worries. I feel so good. I'm not worrying about anything.

"He [Shilstone] told me a lot of things to do and now I know my body better. I'm doing a lot of stretching and core stuff. Now I know my body so I'm just going out there and having fun. It's been a huge asset during the Winter League. And now we have three switch-hitters [along with Matsui and Carlos Beltran] atop the lineup, and we can run. Watch out because we're going to steal a lot of bases."

If he is healthy all year with the addition of Beltran, they are going to wear down those base paths. The Mets already finished fourth in the NL with 107 stolen bases and led the majors with a 82% SB% and now that Milwaukee, who led the NL with 138, lost more than half of their stolen bases, the Mets are going to make a big push to lead the league in swipes. The Mets have four guys who have the ability to steal over 30 bags and two of those guys can steal over 40 bags. Throw in Cliffy and Wright, who have the ability to steal 20 a piece, and you have a team that could make a serious push for 200 swipes. The last two teams to come close were the 2002 Marlins, who swiped 177 bags, and the 2001 Mariners, who swiped 174.

In case you missed it, USA Today had an article on Omar Minaya.

Magglio and the Tigers have been discussing offers and Magglio's camp sent in their counteroffer.

As for Ordonez, it appears the Tigers are making an all-out effort to sign him, with the Detroit Free Press saying an offer was made that could be for five years and between $50 and $70 million. His agent, Scott Boras, said Thursday he had made a counteroffer.

Lance Berkman gets a raise to $10.5 million. He made $6.5 million in 2004.

Delgado Hangover

After my work stress combined with the Carlos Delgado fiasco to induce a whine fest in yesterday's post, I figure why not just whine about it some more. The fact that the Mets lost Bladergroen is not the big deal for me. It does however compound the problem of thinning farm system. As Adam pointed out in the comments section, the Mets #4 prospects over the years had some dubious names in the past. There was 04- M Peterson, 03- D Wright, 02- P Strange, 01- T Perez, 00- B. Cole, 99- Seo, 98- Goetz, 97- G Roberts, 96- J Acevedo, 95- E Alfonzo, 94- E Alfonzo, 93- A Shirley, 92- Huskey, 91- DJ Dozier, 90- T Hundley, 89- T Bross, 88- W Whitehurst, 87- Elster, 86- D West, 85- R Meyers, 84- J Gibbons, and 83- Gooden since Baseball America started keeping track of organizational top ten prospects. While in the long run it probably will not even be a blip on the radar, here is the grander problem. The Mets acquired two players this year that will cost them their 2nd and 3rd round picks, which I am not upset about when you factor in the players they got. They lost Kazmir, Jose Diaz, Matt Peterson, and Justin Huber last season. Add that all up and my point is that the Mets now have three legit prospects right now and the rest are anything but legit. They may have high ceilings or shown flashes of future success, but right now it's all about them reaching their high ceilings that they are not close too.

The Mets thought they were in the playoff hunt last year and pulled the trigger sending two valuable commodities to keep a player away from the Braves in Kris Benson. To me, they completely ignored the fact that Benson could have been available in the off season or a few guys like Matt Clement or Odalis Perez who could have filled in his rotation spot this season (Besides, if the Braves got Benson last season and resigned him, they most likely do not make a highly unforeseen move for Tim Hudson). My conclusion? Not needed. Then there was the Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano logic. The Mets and Rick Peterson were the only people to consider Victor Zambrano one of the premier power pitchers in the American League. They loved him so much they decided to give away Scott Kazmir by using the circular logic that they felt Phil Humber could be better anyway (why not keep both them?). Vincent Namoli is looking to cut payroll anyway he can. Even before Zambrano's injury one has to assume he could have come at a smaller price than Kazmir at the time or a smaller price in the off season. Let's say not doing the Benson deal and using Peterson instead while looking to fill in the spot in the rotation Benson is in the off season. Then compound it with the loss of Blade and the loss of two more draft picks, the Mets have completely transformed themselves into a team who will be looking towards the free agent market to fill holes. I do realize it is easy to say this stuff after knowing what I want know about the outcomes of each transaction, but Kazmir could have netted Aubrey Huff according to Joel Sherman. The Mets could have still gotten Zambrano for less and filled in the other spot in rotation out of Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, or Kris Benson if he was made available. This Blade deal was the icing on the cake for me and like Amit said in the comments a few days back, Omar is now in win now mode and will further use the farm system this upcoming deadline. Of course if the Mets win the WS this season, who cares? But what if (when they) do not? If they are looking to upgrade the team at the deadline, do not think Aarom Baldiris will get it done. Think more along the lines of Yusmeiro Petit.

A good farm system is a deep farm system. The Mets are very, very thin right now so the number of guys over the next five year that will contribute to the majors on some level will be countable on one hand. After the Mets had seemingly been on the right road with a strong farm system, it has pretty much all been put years behind with recent activity. If you are going to churn out good prospects, there has to be depth. Right now, they only have depth in the area of pitching, which happens to be the most important which is working in their favor. Elsewhere it is scary. The Mets historic evaluation of free agent talent tells me that going after free agents to plug holes every year is bad idea. The system is in need a few good draft years and it looks like that will have to wait until 2006. This is the reason I was all about the Mets buying their talent this off season to preserve depth when they could.

With all that good stuff out of the way, let me also state I do not think Doug Mienmcewingicz is necessarily the worst thing for the Mets. I also trust Omar enough to think he explored the other options. I'm sure that if Lee was healthy, the trigger for Dougie Fresh would not have been pulled so quickly. On top of that, I'm sure Omar would not let the info out that Lee is injured because it only hurts his new buddy Scott Boras in his future negotiations for his client Travis Lee hence the reason we have not heard a peep on that. I'm finally coming to grips with that idea and it seems they chose the guy who presents the smallest injury concern as other options like Olerud and N. Johnson were. As of now, it is in Omar I trust. This has been the best Met off season in their history and nothing can change that at this point.

Now what next? I know Minaya said he is going stand pat, but I'm not sure everyone believes that.

I have one suggestion that I would explore if I were Omar. Now it is a recycled idea from before with a different spin.

With the prospect of Cameron being a lot healthier and a bigger contributor to the club in 2005 than Cliffy, see if you can deal Glass. Now, I know nobody is supposed to want him, but the fact is, he still is only getting paid $6.5 million in 2005 and 2006. The Cubbies would take him in a deal for Sosa, but what about a deal without Sosa? The Cubbies have Todd Hollandsworth or Jason Dubois set to start in left field at this point. They have righties sitting at every single position in their lineup with the exception of Hollandsworth if he starts in left. I suggest dangling Cliffy in front of the Cubbies, offer to take Kyle Farnsworth (it cannot be understated the benefit of having a b-brawler like him on the team in case Paul Wilson steps out of line again) and throw them about $4 million to help fray the high risk of Floyd. For $9 million over two years they get a guy who can still hit 30 homers if he is healthy enough and that is not too bad in my opinion. Sure his health is a huge question, but the risk is not that high and they save cash on Fransworth as well. He made $1.4 million last year and will command more money this year. Overall, they it may only cost the Cubs two million for Floyd over their current payroll. Besides, when Sosa leaves next season, they can use Floyd's production as the next crop of outfielders centers around Carlos Lee and not much else. It makes sense to me that Cliff Floyd could help the Cubs for the next two years.

What next? That deal would be a tandem deal in conjunction with Omar courting Magglio Ordonez and having him workout and be examined by their shiny new medical staff. Plug Magglio in left against his will because he'll obviously want to play right. However, if it was the Tigers RF vs. the Mets LF, he may just choose to call his home Flushing, NY. The Mets plug a hole in their bullpen and the plug in another top of the order hitter to protect Carlos Beltran. If Magglio's workouts are less than convincing, then scratch this plan and start over from the beginning.

I am also a fan of trading Cammie for Jorge Julio and Jay Gibbons to make room for Magglio (again, if he's healthy). Gibbons also gives another lefty bat off the bench to play COF and 1b as well.

The good thing about those two above moves is that they can wait as long as Magglio holds out. There is no rush as the Mets can stay the course with what they have or make a last minute move.

* * *

"No more hamstring problems," Reyes said, adding he was back to his old self during winter ball in the Dominican. "That's behind me. I'm 100 percent."

Although Delgado must pass a physical and some of the language is still to be worked out, the first baseman would get just $4 million this year. He would get $13.5 million in 2006, $14.5 million in 2007 and $16 million in 2008.

The deal would also include a $16 million option for 2009 that would become guaranteed based on how Delgado does in MVP voting and whether he earns any postseason MVP awards. If the option doesn't become guaranteed, Florida would have the right to exercise a $12 million option. If the option is declined, Delgado would get a $4 million buyout.

Hmm...I hope the Marlins finish second place to the Mets, lose in the first round of the playoffs and Carlos Delgado gets MVP so the Fish can be have to pay him $16 million on 2009.

Maximizing Your Return

Ok, So lets review. The Mets trade Ian B., Scott Kazmir, Jose Diaz, Matt Peterson, and Justin Huber and get back Victor Zambrano, Doug M., Kris Benson, and Jeff Keppinger. We could argue all day about the philosophy of trading unproven talent for proven talent, but I just think the Mets are making a habit of getting rid of talented guys for less than exciting major leaguers. If you trade top tier talent, it would nice if you can get guys like Huff and Hudson back when they are on the trading block. I like Benson and Zambrano, but the Mets acted desperate when they gave up three of their top five prospects to get them last year. The reality is that Ian B. did not play above Cap City and is a long ways away from the majors. For a low a guy not named Latings Milledge, it would probably be hard to get top tier MLB talent straight up. That being said, he should be been held onto if Doug is all you can get back.

Doug seemed to have worn out his welcome with that ball debacle and he did not seem to have many interested parties being he makes $3.75 million. I guess the real issue would be, is Travis Lee healthy? He took only 19 at-bats in 2004, but if he was to be healthy he costs less in dollars and does not cost a top notch prospect who can flat out rake.

Doug Mientkiewicz

Year	G	AB	R	H	2b	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLGr
2001	151	543	77	166	39	15	74	67	92	.306	.387	.464
2002	143	467	60	122	29	10	64	74	69	.261	.365	.392
2003	142	487	67	146	38	11	65	74	56	.300	.393	.350
2004	127	391	47	93	24	6	35	48	56	.238	.371	.350
4 yr. AVG	141	472	63	132	33	11	60	66	68	.279	.371	.419

Travis Lee

Year	G	AB	R	H	2b	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLGr
2000	128	404	53	95	24	9	54	65	79	.235	.342	.366
2001	157	555	75	143	34	20	90	71	109	.258	.341	.434
2002	153	536	55	142	26	13	70	54	104	.265	.331	.394
2003	145	542	75	149	37	19	70	64	97	.275	.348	.459
4 yr. AVG	146	509	65	132	30	15	71	64	97	.260	.341	.417

Their four year splits are comparable. Nothing heavily favors Doug except for the health factor. If someone can clue me into the health status of Lee, please do. If there are huge question marks surrounding him, then I can possibly understand. However, I do not know that to be the case. One thing about this off season and adding Delgado that was interesting to me was that they would have gave up nothing and improved their team a whole lot. No minor league talent would have been lost and they would have managed to keep what they had left intact. Delgado cost nothing. Not even a draft pick. After giving up the 2nd and 3rd round picks while giving up your fourth rated prospect after giving up three of your top five prospects in 2004 worries me. You can tell me that it's only one lost prospect, but I'm still pissed.

Ian Bladergroen

Year	G	AB	R	H	2b	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLGr
2003	74	274	33	78	12	6	36	21	51	.285	.354	.416
2004	72	269	39	92	23	13	74	25	55	.342	.376	.505
Career	146	543	72	170	35	19	110	46	106	.313	.376	.505

From BA:
Background: Bladergroen passed up a scholarship from Nebraska to sign with the Mets as a draft-and-follow prior to the 2003 draft. A two-time junior college all-American, he led national juco players with 32 homers in 2003. He had a breakout first full season in 2004, but it ended early when he tore a ligament in his left wrist in July.

Strengths: Bladergroen has plus power, and because his swing keeps the bat in the zone for a long time, he also can hit for average. He uses the whole field and works counts well. One of the best defensive first basemen in the system, he’s agile and has a big wingspan to nab high throws.

Weaknesses: Though Bladergoren has produced for average and power, his bat speed is not exceptional and could cause him problems at higher levels. His wrist injury is also a question mark, as he couldn’t swing the bat during instructional league.

The Future: The Mets are anxiously awaiting Bladergroen’s recovery. If he’s fully healthy when spring training begins, he could hit his way to high Class A. Wrist injuries often take a while to heal, so he could need time to regain his power stroke.

If you are going to trade him, is Doug M. really all you can get? Coming off a really bad year in which he was traded for Justin Jones, I just think something better could have been done. I may be over reacting about it and Ian may turn out to be nothing, but Doug M. just does not seem worth it right now. The Mets seemingly have turned to an organizational philosophy of dishing out top prospects for sub par major leaguers who may or may not have upside. By the all-star break I may be applauding this move, but we also may have a first baseman slugging .370 and the Red Sox may have a stud hitting .330/.420/.500 in the minors. Weren't the Mets thin in the first base department in the minors? How about moving someone from a position of strength like Shane Bowman instead?

This one is head scratcher right now. Not only did the Mets lose out on Delgado, which I can deal with, but they dished off the #4 prospect in a weakened farm system when Travis Lee is out there and cost nothing.

Plan B

For the New York Mets, now comes plan B.

They had hoped to add Carlos Delgado and complete a spectacular off-season that included the signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. But Delgado chose the Florida Marlins' $52 million, four-year offer Tuesday.

"You can't win them all," Mets general manager Omar Minaya said. "You don't like losing, but those things happen."

To fill its void at first base, New York was closing in on a deal to acquire Doug Mientkiewicz, who is being shopped around by the Boston Red Sox. ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports the Red Sox will receive a minor leaguer. The trade should be announced on Wednesday. Andres Galarraga already had been signed as a possible backup.

Should be announced by Wednesday? Wow. I certainly hope this minor leaguer isn't someone too good. After all, Mientoverratedandcannotbat.300anymoreicz is not worth much. I hope his .238 BA is fresh in Omar's mind. With Lee costing NO minor league talent it would be a travesty to give up any substantial worth for a guy who would cost more in dollars and in talent for an indiscernible upgrade. Although many people seem to think so, Dougie is not so fresh.

Look on the bright side, the one thing he has going for him is that he seems to like odd years.

2001 - .306/.387/.464
2003 - .300/.393/.450

2002 - .261/.365/.392
2004 - .238/.326/.350

Maybe 2005 will follow the same trend? Probably not. Shea is not exactly kind to hitters, but I'll welcome his glove if he can put up a .265 average with 10 homers. I know, I know. I'm not exactly setting a high bar here, but I'm being realistic that he may not even hit those numbers.

Blame Me

For anyone of you looking for someone to place the blame on, blame me. Forget Jeff Wilpon angering Sloane and Delgado with his Sunday at midnight deadline. Forget Sloane and his "no one backs me into a corner" attitude. Forget Jeffery Loria for putting up a $52 million dollar deal with a vesting option. Don't even think about blaming the Canadians (though I personsally think they are fault here 100%). I was told I was the jinx that sealed the Mets fate. I actually posted the Mets lineup with Delgado saying that they got him and had to quickly change it when I misread a friend's IM. As it turns out, it was the kiss of death. The IM only said that he heard on WFAN that they were coming close on a four year $52 million deal. Sorry for screwing it all up. It's all my fault. Now we will be destined to get 10 to 12 homers from first base the entire year. For any of you who listen to MLB Radio’s Stayin' Hot, Darryl Hamilton's hex is alive and well.

4 Years, $51 Million

According to WFAN, a deal between Delgado and Los Metropolitans is close to being done.

UPDATE: He'a Marlin. Micahel Kay says it is four years $52 million.

UPDATE2: MLBRadio says the Marlins deal has a vesting fifth year option which was the probable deal breaker for the Mets. Five is a lot and maybe the fifth kickers are lofty, but we'll see about that. The Marlins put up and the Mets shut up. However, I'll reserve judgment until I actually hear what the kicker for the fifth year will be before I actually praise the Marlins for stealing Delgado.

Some Money Talk

For the luxury tax, payrolls are calculated using average annual values of contracts of players on 40-man rosters, earned bonuses and about $9 million per team for benefits. Basically, the payroll that all of the 2005 salaries add up too are not the figure that gets taxed. To me the number to still go by is the 2005 total payroll of the 25 man major league roster when you are looking at how much the Mets are spending since the other figures are included every year and is more of a static cost that gets tacked on every year. Between benefits and the players in the minors who are on the 40 man roster, that figure is somewhere between $9 million and $12 million that gets tacked on every season for most teams depending on how many players in their minor league system have major league contracts, which the Mets have two of this season in Alay Soler and Phil Humber. The 25 man MLB roster number is something we can measure against other teams and past years since most team’s figures of the other 15 players on the 40 man roster and the benefits are for the most part very similar give or take a few million.

The figure that the Mets are looking at right now without a first baseman is roughly $112 million when the other 15 players on the 40 man roster are taken into account and a rough figure of $9 million for benefits are added in, though that benefit figure could be less. Even if the Mets added Carlos Delgado for $12 million, the ML payroll would be about $113 million and their payroll for luxury tax purposes would be about $125 million. The Mets would not be going over the luxury tax threshold of $128 million this up coming year and as long as they keep their major league roster under $116 million this season they should just miss out on having to pay any luxury taxes. Forget the fact they will probably not even spend enough to get taxed, but really, even if they if they squeaked past that $128 million luxury tax threshold, the amount over the threshold is taxed at 22.5%. That means if they go over it by $3,000,000 they would only be taxed $ 675,000. Is it really that much of deal breaker for vastly improving this team? Not when you look at the fact the Marlins are probably going to land Delgado if the Mets do not. A lineup of Pierre, Castillo, Lowell, Delgado, Cabrera, and LoDuca heading up the top six of your division rival is reason enough for anyone to make some sacrifices.

* * *

Baseball has come a long way since 2000. Despite the fact that Football has passed baseball as the most popular sport in the USA and actually grosses more money, baseball is alive and doing well. Back in 2000, there were 45 players who earned more than $6 million to form baseball's economic elite. That year, Carlos Delgado and Jeff Kent delivered the best value out of any player making more than $6,000,000. In 2004, there were 130 players making over $6,000,000. The number of six millionaires has increased by 276% and that figure is probably going to climb higher in 2005. Nice to be a ballplayer these days.

Piazza to hang them up? One has to wonder if he will want to come back if has another year like last year. He just got married, he's got the record for the most homers as a catcher, and he's dropped a few notches in productivity when he coincidentally cut off his mullet. So as I see it, he has two options. Grow the mullet back, or retire.

Mike Lupica shows the Mets some love.

This is something from Lupica's story what we all like to read:

While Fred Wilpon played an integral role in signing Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, his son was entrusted with the finances of the Delgado project. According to one person familiar with the talks, Jeff Wilpon tried to get "cute" with the money, and otherwise created friction with Sloane.

The Baltimore Sun has finally reported what has been speculated, the Orioles have raised their offer to four years, $48 million.

The Tigers are interested in Magglio Ordonez as are the Texas Rangers and possibly the Mets, Orioles, and Cubs. Amazingly enough, he's finally working out for teams.

Stephen Drew and the Diamondbacks have resumed talks. I'm personally pulling for a miracle and for him to be around for the 9th pick in the 2005 draft, but I doubt the D-Backs are going to let him walk away.

The Dodgers strike fear into the hearts of the NL West opponents by signing Scott Erickson.

Wilpon's Follies

In 2003 the New York Mets were ranked 2nd in franchise value behind the one and only New York Yankees. Fred Wilpon took over sole ownership of the team in 2002 when he bought out Nelson Doubleday. The Mets were worth $482 million in 2002 and rose to $498 million in 2003. After successive last place performances and shrinking gate receipts, the Mets dropped $56 million in value in 2004 and that was the third the biggest percentage decrease out of all of the major league clubs. Coming into this season they were behind the Yankees and the Red Sox in terms of franchise value. If the Dodgers did not fall off the deep end in terms of value as well, the Mets may have slipped two spots. Also, don't confuse this as a bad economy byproduct since thirteen out of the 30 major league teams experience a drop off in franchise value while all of the others managed to increase in team value. The Red Sox were worth $533 million coming into the 2004 season after being below the Mets value every year since 2000. The Mets should at least be in that neighborhood, but instead they are almost $100 million less in terms of value.

In 2003 the Mets revenue was $158 million, which was good for fourth behind the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Mariners, who were the most profitable major league franchise. Yes, the Mariners were even more profitable than the Yankees. The Mariners managed an operational income of $17 million dollars in 2003. The Mets on the other hand had lost third most money and were behind only the village idiot (Tom Hicks and his A-Rod contract) and the New York Yankees.

In 2004, the Mets' attendance was up a bit from 2003, but still no where it should be for this team in this town. Wilpon's precarious spending and band-aid solutions have been nothing but a drain to the Mets and their franchise. The Mets should be worth a lot more than they are right now, but due to the rabid mismanagement of this team they are not worth as much as they should be nor are they drawing as many fans to the stadium as they should. It is not for a lack of spending on Wilpon's part though. He spends alright, just not wisely. The Mets were 4th in payroll in 2004 (with Vaughn’s salary taken into account), 2nd in payroll in 2003, 6th in payroll in 2002, and 5th in payroll in 2001. I do not think anyone can call Wilpon or the Mets cheap when they are always in the tops of the league when it comes to overall spending. However, they were undoubtedly at the bottom of the league in getting the most value out of their dollars. They simply have not translated their money spent into wins and have sunk a lot of money into each loss as they have been piling up over the past few years.

After making it to the playoffs in 1999, the Mets made a few moves. The most notable move was acquiring Mike Hampton via trade with the Houston Astros. If Mike Hampton is not a Met, they do not get to the World Series as he was great for the Mets in 2000. The Mets also signed Orel Hershiser, signed Todd Zeile, traded for Derek Bell, and traded for Bobby Jones. They also lost John Olerud to the Mariners in the process who left a huge hole on the team and replaced him with Zeile.

After 2000 season, the Mets acquired Lenny Harris, Desi Relaford, Turk Wendell, Rick Reed, Kevin Appier, Pat Mahomes, Tony Tarasco, Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Steve Trachsel, Jim Leyritz, and Matt Franco. Yes, after they made a trip to the World Series and lost Mike Hampton, they did not do anything to upgrade the team and signed Kevin Appier to an outrageous contract of 4 yrs, $42M. (Pedro Martinez’s deal does not look so bad now)

After 2001 season, the Mets signed Satoru Komiyama, traded for Roberto Alomar, traded for Mike Bacsik, signed Roger Cedeño, signed David Weathers, traded for Shawn Estes, traded for Mo Vaughn, signed Pedro Astacio, traded for Jeromy Burnitz, traded for Jeff D'Amico, traded for Scott Strickland, and signed John Valentin.

After 2002 season, the Mets signed Tom Glavine, signed Mike Stanton, signed Cliff Floyd, signed Tony Clark, signed Graeme Lloyd, signed Rey Sanchez, signed Tsuyoshi Shinjo, signed Dan Wheeler, signed Jay Bell, and signed David Cone.

What's the common thread? No big time player in the prime of their career. A team in the largest market with some of the deepest pockets and highest revenue has not signed an elite free agent under the age of 30. A team that turned the 6th highest profit out of any major league team from 2000 through 2003 did not bring in one big catch in their prime. The Mets also failed to improve their team whatsoever after their World Series performance and were a much worse team in their 2001 campaign which is simply inexcusable. Over the years the Mets signed a lot of great players and some were still effective, but most people they brought in were past their primes. Wilpon continually opened his wallet for the wrong players and tried to patch everything together. I'll be the first to admit, I thought the moves they made after the 2001 season, heading into the 2002 season where good. I was excited about Alomar, Burntiz and Vaughn. I had dreams of tons of homeruns and watching a future Hall of Famer in Alomar man second base everyday. We all kept waiting and watching for him to break out, but it never happened. In the end, we all know how that worked out and it certainly was not good. After a failed 2002 campaign, the Mets threw more bad money at the problem en route to their highest payroll in club history and ended up in last place for the second year in a row. The 1992 Mets were supposed to be the worst team money can buy, but I think the 2003 Mets were the worst team money can buy.

Even when the Mets went to the World Series they were only ranked 8th in the NL in attendance despite playing in the largest market in the world. The past two years the Mets registered 11th in the NL in attendance. Amazingly enough, the Mets are in a position to turn everything around. They have some questions in regards to health, their bullpen, and first base, but they are going to be in the mix if they make no more moves. The Mets can draw 3,000,000 fans and they can do it this year. There is already a huge buzz with the Mets fans and if the team can translate that into some early wins, the fans will come out. If the Mets can get to that 3,000,000 mark, which they have only attained in 1987 and 1988 only, that translates into roughly $20,000,000 in gate receipts alone. I'm not being too overzealous in saying that 3,000,000 is doable this year. 3,000,000 on the nose would have been good for 7th in the NL in 2004 and 11th overall in the majors. The Mets were either 1st or 2nd in attendance in 1985 through 1990 with the exception of 1989 when they were 3rd. Mets fans have proved in the past that they are willing to come out to see a winning product. Wilpon can pay for his big purchases this year if his dollars spent finally translate into a winning product on the field. Forget the network. We know the network will bring in boatloads of cash. Wilpon probably has more than $30 million dollars in revenue on the table by just putting an exciting team on the field that will be in contention for the entire year. He also brought in players that fans come out to the park and see, which is vastly different from their other recent purchases. Fans will pay to come see Pedro pitch every fifth day and fans will pay to come to see Beltran play. Piazza simply was not a draw anymore and Reyes and Wright are just not at the point yet that the casual fan will spend money to come to Shea to see.

Wilpon has done nothing to help this franchise out since he’s owned the team until now. He's lucky enough to have bought a team in NY and to have them be the 3rd most valuable franchise in the majors in spite of the recent years of embarrassing baseball. The Mets turned a profit of $21.3M in 2000, $16.84M in 2001, $11.6M in 2002, and lost $19.30M in 2003. The Mets have money and plenty of it. Now with the network on the way, the Mets as a franchise should shoot into the $500 to $600 million dollar range and the revenue should increase by tens of millions of dollars and should reach the $200 million mark. Wilpon has a golden opportunity to make his franchise one of the best in organized sports and has seemingly tripped over that opportunity. If Wilpon & Co. can put a winning product on the field in 2005 while setting up the future to be successful as well, he could be the envy of sports ownership and just a year ago that idea sounded really far fetched. If he spends a little extra cash today, it could go a long way in the future. Not only will he line his pockets but the extra revenue can go towards a new stadium further driving up the worth of the franchise. Wilpon cannot let a few million dollars stand in the way of Carlos Delgado. If they can pull off the trifecta they have a chance to put 3,000,000 fans in the seats. I’ve already had plenty of people who otherwise would not have gone to Mets games tell me they want go to Shea to watch this team and to me, that speaks volumes about the casual fans that may just be drawn back into Flushing this year in droves.

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Texas' offer to Carlos Delgado was worth about $11.3 million in today's value because of the deferred money. However, their tune about Delgado playing first base drastically changed over the weekend and the Rangers subsequently wanted him to primarily be DH and then pulled their offer back off the table. My how things change. As for the Mets, although it is not confirmed, they are rumored to have dropped out of the Carlos Delgado negotiations seemingly handing him over the Marlins since they are they only one of the two teams left that could be considered contenders. Jeff Wilpon and the Mets still say they are waiting for a call back from Sloane and deny backing out of the race.

"Jeff [Wilpon] and I spoke with Mr. Sloane and let him know our desire to try and get a resolution to this matter [last night]," Mets general manager Omar Minaya said in a statement. "He said he would convey that to Carlos and that he would call us back after speaking with Carlos. We have yet to receive that call back."

We'll have to wait on this, I'm assuming the Mets are still in it until they say they are out. However, Steve Popper had said the Mets this plan B in place:

The Mets have developed a backup plan in case the Delgado deal falls through. The team is prepared to turn to an inexpensive first base option such as Travis Lee or John Olerud on the free agent market and return to its earlier efforts to obtain Sammy Sosa from the Chicago Cubs.

David Lennon from Newsday had this plan B lined out:

When the Rangers upped the ante Friday during their own visit with Delgado, the Mets reconsidered their situation, estimating that a Plan B of signing Ordoñez in addition to a first baseman would come at a similar cost.

Now it appears to be their only option. The Mets were interested enough in Ordoñez that they already possessed the rehabbing outfielder's medical records, though it looks to be another week before he will begin working out after two knee surgeries.

I like the 2nd plan B better.

Matt Peterson ranked is ranked as the #9 prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system.

Background: Peterson came to the Pirates in the three-team deal that sent Kris Benson to the Mets last July. Peterson missed two starts at Double-A Binghamton before the trade with a strained side muscle, and that affected his control after he switch organizations. He uncharacteristically walked 19 batters and threw six wild pitches in his last five starts of the season.

Strengths: Though Peterson has the frame to throw hard, he has better off speed pitches at this stage of his career. His changeup is outstanding, particularly against hitters, and he possesses a true 12-to-6 curveball. His fastball is no slouch, as it sits at 90-92 mph and runs up to 94.

Weaknesses: Peterson could stand to add a bit more muscle to his lanky frame. He also needs to gain better command of all his pitches. His inability to locate consistently led to 18 homers in 2004 after he gave up just four the previous season.

The Future: How Peterson performs in spring training will determine whether he starts this season back in Double-A or gets moved up to Triple-A. He's still somewhat raw and won’t see the majors until 2006, but he has a chance to develop into a first-rate starter.

Ha ha.

At Worst He'll Be Scott Rolen

MetsDaily.com recently did an interview with John Sickels. When they were discussing David Wright, John had said that barring injuries, David Wight should be Scott Rolen at worst. Ummm....I'll take that. They also briefly went over Milledge, Humber, Petit, and Gaby Hernandez. Basically he said Milledge is the real deal. He's got the speed and glove to play center, the arm to play right, the ability to hit for average and power, and ability to swipe bases. He also expects his plate discipline to improve which is good to hear as well. He actually rated Petit higher than Milledge in his book and said that he expects him to help out much sooner. As far as Humber, he said he is not in the Mark Prior category (but who is?), but projects to be very solid #2. He also stated that his fastball comes in faster than it seems due to his delivery. The good news is his fastball registers the mid 90's on the gun so the thing must look like it is on fire coming to the plate. He also pointed out that Humber has two distinct curveballs. Finally he gave a quick shout out to Gaby as a guy to watch this next season, but most of us did not need him to tell us to get this guy on our radar. Overall, it was a pretty informative interview. Check it out to hear the multitude of information I failed to pass along.

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This picture just never gets old.

Somebody was smoking some doobies when they wrote their article. Juan Pierre is the best base stealer in the majors? The argument was predicated on the idea that he steals at the right time and they are important stolen bases. 19 of Pierre's stolen bases came in losses and 26 came in wins. I do not think you can make the case that when he's on the bases swiping bags, the Marlins win. I do not care how many executives he asked, there is no way Juan Pierre is tops in the league at stealing bases.

Player	'02 SB	'02 CS	'02 SB%	'03 SB	'03 CS	'03 SB%	'04 SB	'04 CS	'04 SB%
Juan Pierre	47	12	80%	65	20	76%	45	24	65%
Scott Podsednik	-	-	-	43	10	81%	70	13	84%
Carl Crawford	9	5	64%	55	10	85%	59	15	80%
Carlos Beltran	35	7	83%	41	4	91%	42	3	93%
Dave Roberts	-	-	-	5	2	71%	33	1	97%
Cory Patterson	18	3	86%	16	5	76%	32	9	78%
Endy Chavez	31	5	86%	34	8	81%	36	11	77%

Seriously, I do not care how many important stolen bases anyone thinks he steals, the guy had a 65% stolen base percentage in 2004. The guy got thrown out by our very own Mike Piazza. Besides, Dave Roberts got thrown out once and stole the most important base of the year in the playoffs against the Yankees.

Things are heating up in the Carlos Delgado Chase. Baltimore has put out a four year, $48 million offer. The Mets put out a four year, $47.25 million offer.

Phil Rogers suspects that Mark Teixiera might be on the trading block if the Rangers sign Delgado.

If the Rangers somehow sign Delgado—it's the best situation for him, but Florida and the Mets continue full-court presses—they might be open to talking about deals for Mark Teixeira, who homered every 12.1 at-bats in his last 90 games a year ago. They haven't approached Boras about a long-term deal while getting Michael Young and Hank Blalock committed through 2008 and '09, respectively. … Milwaukee won't discuss a multiyear contract with ace Ben Sheets until he throws in spring training. Sheets had back surgery after throwing 237 innings last season.

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I do apologize for posting something having to do with a second rate sport for people to lazy to watch their team play more than one a week, but the draft is always interesting. It is of interest to me especially since I'm a lowly Dolphins fan and they own the second pick. Here you go, Mel Kiper's mock draft for those of you who do not have ESPN Insider....

1. San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith (jr.), QB, Utah

A smart player who will pick up an NFL system quickly, Smith has good size, is mobile enough to hurt teams with his running ability and is also an efficient passer who can make all the necessary throws.

2. Miami Dolphins: Cedric Benson, RB, Texas

A strong, tough runner with good speed for his size, Benson would help fill the void left by the retirement of Ricky Williams. But there is speculation the Dolphins will attempt to fill their running back need through trade, perhaps for Buffalo's Travis Henry, so stay tuned.

3. Cleveland Browns: Aaron Rodgers (jr.), QB, California

Rodgers is a smart, accurate passer with a quick release. His arm strength is adequate and he is a better prospect at this point in his career than former Cal QB Kyle Boller, now the starter for the Baltimore Ravens.

4. Chicago Bears: Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn

Perhaps the most complete back in the draft, Brown can carry or catch the ball with equal skill. He has size, instincts and quickness that allowed him to put up excellent numbers at the college level.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carnell Wiliams, RB, Auburn

A creative, deceptive runner with tremendous natural skills. Williams can get tough yards inside despite lacking ideal size, a point illustrated by his 29 rushing TDs over the last two years.

6. Tennessee Titans: Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia

A good cover man who will also contribute as a kick returner, Jones has very good closing speed and is a willing tackler in run support. That may be his most important quality with the NFL hurting pass defenses by focusing on downfield infractions by defensive backs.

7. Oakland Raiders: Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma

A fiery, intense player who always goes all-out, Cody is similar to former NFL standout Kevin Greene in his ability to play on his feet as an outside linebacker, or in a three-point stance as a defensive end.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State

Johnson improved his stock immensely this year. He ties up offensive linemen and is able to gain penetration against the run as well as collapse the pocket in passing situations.

9. Washington Redskins: Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan

Edwards has the size, speed and athleticism to take over games, and he did that several times in 2004. He also significantly cut down on dropped passes and concentration lapses this past season, pushing his stock even higher.

10. Detroit Lions: Heath Miller (jr.), TE, Virginia

A tremendous pass receiver and a willing blocker along the line, Miller would give quarterback Joey Harrington another weapon to complement his wide receivers. He'll also be a help to running back Kevin Jones in the rushing attack.

11. Dallas Cowboys: Shawne Merriman (jr.), DE/OLB, Maryland

A workout warrior with incredible physical skills, Merriman would be an ideal end/linebacker combo in a 3-4 scheme.

12. San Diego Chargers (from NYG): Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas

Has the speed and strength to chase ballcarriers from sideline to sideline and make things happen when he gets to the ball.

13. Houston Texans: Mike Williams (jr.), WR, USC

Williams did not play in 2004 but dominated the college game for two seasons while at USC. His 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame gives him a big advantage over defensive backs, and he would make a perfect complement to young standout receiver Andre Johnson.

14. Carolina Panthers: Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma

Brown's long arms, good feet and balance allow him to engage defenders easily and move them off the ball or away from the quarterback.

15. Kansas City Chiefs: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami

The Chiefs likely will dedicate most of their draft to defense, and Rolle is a good start. He has the cover skills to shut down wide receivers and also gives up his body against the run.

16. New Orleans Saints: Thomas Davis (jr.), OLB, Georgia

A punishing tackler who played safety in college, Davis has the size and speed to move into the front seven and make an impact at the pro level.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin

A force along the line of scrimmage, James can play the run, rush the passer and command double-team blocks. There are some durability questions, though, after he missed parts of the last two seasons with injury.

18. Minnesota Vikings: Shaun Cody, DL, USC

A versatile lineman who can play end or tackle, Cody would be a great fit for a Vikings team that has struggled at times along the defensive front.

19. St. Louis Rams: David Pollack, DE, Georgia

Pollack plays with tremendous intensity and his motor does not stop. He makes up for a lack of size with good initial quickness and great closing speed.

20. Dallas Cowboys (from BUF): Troy Williamson (jr.), WR, South Carolina

The fastest wideout in the draft, Williamson would be a great help to a team that lacked a consistent vertical threat.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alex Barron, OT, Florida State

Barron is equally adept in the passing and running games and has light feet for a player his size.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Roddy White, WR, UAB

White's 4.42 speed in the 40 gives him a size/speed combination in the elite category. He is a big-play wideout who averaged 20.0 yards per catch in 2004.

23. Seattle Seahawks: Darryl Blackstock (jr.), OLB, Virginia

Blackstock is a solid all-around talent who shows flashes of greatness and has tremendous natural physical skills.

24. Green Bay Packers: Channing Crowder (so.), MLB, Florida

A tremendously productive player who adapted quickly to the collegiate game, Crowder has the ideal physical skills for a man in the middle.

26. Denver Broncos: Matt Roth, DE, Iowa

Roth is similar to David Pollack: undersized with a great motor and intensity. Roth was productive during his senior year and has good physical ability.

26. New York Jets: Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn

A consistent, durable corner who can cover and support the run, Rogers has played against some of the best talent in the nation during his career.

27. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Browner (so.), CB, Oregon State

A consistent cover man with good size, Browner would make a nice complement to Atlanta's top pick last year, CB DeAngelo Hall.

28. San Diego Chargers: Roscoe Parrish (jr.), WR, Miami

Parrish has speed and would be a good option to round out a receiving corps bolstered by the addition of WR Keenan McCardell and the emergence of TE Antonio Gates.

29. Indianapolis Colts: Bryant McFadden, CB, Florida State

Did not intercept many passes, but that's because teams respected his ability and avoided his side of the field. McFadden has the size to match up with big receivers.

30. New England Patriots: Justin Miller (jr.), CB, Clemson

A good fit for a team thin in the secondary this season.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Tuck (jr.), DE, Notre Dame

Good size and strength. Would be an asset for a team that thrives on pressuring the quarterback.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Smith, TE, Stanford

An athletic pass receiver with great body control, Smith can stretch the deep middle and is a good hook-zone threat.