Buster's Top Stories in 2008
Top stories, eh?
1. Where will Johan Santana be traded, and when will he be traded?
The Mets would love to have Santana, but Twins' talent evaluators view the Mets' prospects as being dramatically inferior to those of the Red Sox and Yankees.
Though the Mets deals are closer than many people think, the perception of course is quite the opposite. However, Mets could offer a deeper package. Hughes is the only blue chip getting tossed around really. Ellsbury has taken on a life of his own, Lester is really good, Lowrie is a better player than given credit for, Melky is just absurdly overrated...
My thoughts remain the same and if the Twins really want to move him, the Mets can put something pretty solid and rather comparable, if not better, than the other ones being bandied about.
2. Just how many runs will the Tigers score -- and will it be enough to prop up their thin pitching staff?
Yes. That one was easy.
3. Can the Colorado Rockies follow up and grow on their 2007 success
No, no, and no. I'm sensing that 83 wins would be a windfall for this team that plays in what has become the National League's best division. Also, just as the Mets needed a historic collapse to miss the playoffs, they needed an equally historic run to make the playoffs. They finally developed some pitching and according to Fox they have the best defense to ever be assembled on the field, but a lot can go wrong with this team and they need a lot to go better than expected.
4. Can the Mets rebound from their 2007 collapse?
Despite the efforts of GM Omar Minaya, the Mets still have not added a front-of-the-rotation starter to fill the vacancy created by the departure of Tom Glavine.
Fair or not, right or wrong, this is the reality for the Mets: If they don't make the playoffs this year, then the jobs of manager Willie Randolph and some players -- and maybe even Minaya -- could be on the line, depending on how the year plays out.
Of course they can rebound. They were one measly game away from not having to rebound. As for this top-of-the rotation crap, can we stop? Yes, Tom Glavine is going to the Hall of Fame. We get it. However, that does not mean every time he is on the field is a precious sight that we need to behold. He was 100% average last season and his '07 production is easily replaced.
Willie's job on the line? Dare to dream.
5. Will Kosuke Fukudome make the Cubs the favorite in the NL Central
On paper, he would seem to fit the Cubs' perfectly -- he's a left-handed hitter among many right-handed hitters, he's athletic, he hits for some power, and he gets on base.
They are favorites for sure. The Brewers losing their closer is going to cost them a few games and I just cannot see anyone else stepping up in that bullpen. Gagne is a nice move, but Cordero was historically good for quite a while.
6. Can Joe Torre make a difference in Los Angeles?
The Dodgers' clubhouse was fractured at year's end, and Grady Little couldn't repair the rift between the older and younger players on the Los Angeles roster. Maybe Torre can get more out of the Dodgers, with a lineup that has been augmented by the addition of Andruw Jones and a rotation that now includes Hiroki Kuroda.
Anyone with common sense could make a difference in LA. Play the young guys. BOOM! I just did his job for him. Let LaRoche play everyday. Let Kemp play everyday. Let Loney play. Billingsley is a stud and a rotation of Kuroda, Billingsley, Penny, Lowe, and whomever is badass.
The bullpen is tight and the addition of Andruw Jones to a team that direly needed power is a great one. Even in his off year he was a valuable player that added some wins and he should rebound this year, however slightly. This team is the real deal and is well balanced. Torre is going to receive a lot of credit for this team doing well, but that is just poppycock (sorry for the harsh language). This team is a good team.
7. Can the aging Braves' rotation hold up?
Hmmmm...I thought in #4 you were wondering if the Mets can manage to replace Glavine's top o' the ro' production and now you are wondering if his aging body will be effective? Prediction. He will be effectively average. 4.50 ERA here we come!
8. Is Joe Girardi a genius or an idiot?
If the Yankees make the playoffs and win at least one round -- something the team hasn't done since 2004 -- then Girardi will be cast as a genius. And if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993, well, he's going to be cast as an idiot.
Only by Yankee fans. The Yankees are heading into 2008 with three rookie starters (or two and Mussina....choose your poison) and a suspect bullpen. Their outfield is really not all that good and first base is kind of bad as well. Posada had a career year at 35 and I fully expect him to be his normal .260 hitting self next season.
Would anyone be all that surprised if the Yankees a) do not make it out of the first round again or b) miss the playoffs by a hair altogether? Missing it by a hair while developing a nasty rotation on the right side of 30 is never a bad thing. However, asking Yankee fans to exhibit some perspective is asking a bit much.
9. Can the Red Sox defend their title?
They will go into the season as solid favorites to win the World Series, especially if they do manage to complete the deal for Santana. And if Boston wins its third title in five years, then the conversation about whether the Red Sox qualify as a dynasty will begin.
Why the hell not? They waltzed into the World Series and dominated everyone. They still are going to add the best pitching prospect in the minors into the mix in Buccholz, Daisuke should be better, they have Lester back and in for a 100% healthy season, and they have depth in Ellsbury and Lowrie ready to jump in and start kicking ass.
This team is actually going to be better than they were last year, which is disturbing to think about. All of this assumes they will not get Santana and if they do, I would like to revise my previous statement and say they are going to be much, much better. Three titles in five years in any era is a dynasty in my book much less this era. Over the last five years, no team will have been as good as the Red Sox and that qualifies as a dynasty.
10. Who will get Erik Bedard?
If he goes to Seattle, is this really a big story? They are still a fringy team that made their future a bit darker.
11. How good (or bad) will Oakland be?
I may be missing something here, but how is this a big storyline either? They certainly will not be historically bad, which might be newsworthy, and they are waiving the white flag and conceding the season already.
12. Ken Griffey Jr. closes on 600 homers.
He has 593 and counting. And whether you think it's right or wrong, fair or unfair, his accomplishments will inevitably be cast as genuine, at a time when the other great player of his generation, Bonds, will be in court.
Griffey is flat out nasty. What he did from '90 to '00 was insane. OPS+ of 135, 155, 149, 171!, 170!, 122, 153, 165, 150, 139, and 133. For good measure, he dropped an OPS+ of 145 and 144 on us in the new millennium. Throw on top of that ten straight Gold Gloves starting in 1990 that were actually deserved. If he never played again after 2000, he would be a Hall of Famer.
Of course young kids like Benny are too young to remember all of this going down, but we would not be having a discussion about the possibility of Alex Rodriguez being the best player of all time if Griffey Jr.'s had his wheels had not failed him.
I hope this is a gigantic story and he is celebrated as one of the best to every play baseball.
13. Greg Maddux closes on Roger Clemens, and Warren Spahn.
Who doesn't like this guy? Ok, well maybe a lot of people, but I am not one of them. He will not get the 16 wins he needs to pass Spahn this year, but he will get it in 2009. Could he make a run at 400 wins? However small the chance is, yes.
The guy is basically a knuckleballer since his fastball dances around better than most knuckleballers. It is a true mystery how he pulls it off, but as long as he can keep hurling the ball towards the plate, he can be useful to some team and pile on some victories.
Maybe MacPhail finally realized trying to rip people off is no way to improve your club long term? He is a smart guy who has been around for a while so I would like to think he already knew that, but he certainly was not acting that way.
Ultimately, the Mets might be the best fit.
They have the greatest need. They have the money to sign Santana. And they play in the National League, where he's less likely to haunt the Twins.
The players the Mets would send the Twins aren't household names. There's no Jose Reyes or David Wright. The offers aren't perfect.
But it's become abundantly clear the Twins won't be able to make the perfect trade here. Not for a two-time Cy Young winner. Not for a lefthander who is 93-44 for his career and won't turn 29 until March.
No team is going to give the Twins everything they need when that team must turn around and hand Santana a five- or six-year contract extension worth at least $20 million per year.
According to people with knowledge of the discussions, the Mets have offered top pitching prospect Deolis Guerra, along with center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.
Really, that is a great deal for the Twins if that is what is on the table. They like Gomez and he plays a smoooooth centerfield while having unlimited upside. Whether he gets there is another argument. Guerra is a legit blue chipper and Humber and Mulvey are still very good prospects that are almost certainly going to contribute on the big league level in the starting rotation in my eyes.
Now, would I do it? Hmmmmm....The Mets still have Fernando, who the Twins still want but should not be able to get, and still have Mike Pelfrey. Ideally the Mets keep Humber or Mulvey and swap in a younger guy, but I think that blows the deal up from the Twins perspective. You know what? After all my bitching, I would pull the trigger on that for the simple fact the Mets retain their best prospect and still have a young arm in the mix with upside, who essentially would have been their 3rd or 4th best prospect had he still qualified. It hurts a bit, but that is a palatable deal for both sides and only sort of guts the system rather than completely guts the system.
If they are insistent upon getting Fernando back, well then they have to scale back their demands significantly. Martinez has the chance to be that good and is better than any sole prospect the Red Sox have offered and might even be more valuable than Hughes. Yeah, I said it...what are you going to do about it? Hopefully Omar realizes these things and holds tight. The Mets can put something competitive together and it is up to the Twins if they want to pull the trigger.
Faced with foreclosure on her Russellville, Indiana home, Christina Snyder allegedly concocted the kind of plan that now has insurance executives on edge.
According to the county prosecutor, the 31-year-old Snyder allegedly offered to pay a neighbor $5,000 to help her burn down her house and make it look like a botched rape attempt - all in order to claim $80,000 in insurance money. Snyder wanted the neighbor to bind her hands in duct tape, write "whore" on her shirt, and then help her escape once the blaze was set, the prosecutor says. The neighbor demurred, instead reporting Snyder to police.
I really think writing "whore" on her shirt was a great touch. If some people could apply their evil genius part of their brain to good things, we would be alright.
Labels: 2008 season, johan santana
posted by michael o. at 10:55 AM
18 Comments:
I expect the Braves starting pitching to falter some this season given that Glavine's effectivness will further degrade. This assumes Bobby Cox doesn't work his magic and get the umpire to expand the plate to 19" when Glavine pitches. Smoltz showed signs of aging last year and Hudson will come back to earth a bit. If the Brewers sign Cameron so the Braves don't get him on the cheap I see the Braves as a third place team in the NL East.
If F. Martinez in not part of the Santana deal and Pelfrey stays the deal becomes very tempting but still troublesome. That means in 2009 Pedro and Perez are FAs and will cost top dollar. Santana will be getting paid big money also. The 2009 rotation will be Santana, Maine, Pelfrey with no viable internal replacements. That means paying Perez big big money to stay and picking up another FA pitcher. Maybe Pedro again if he stays healthy. All this coincides with Texeria hitting the market in 2009. 1B is a big hole to fill and can the Mets sign Perez, Pedro, & Texeria to big dollar contracts while paying Santana? Stealing Texeria from Atlanta would be hugh. If Omar could figure a way to keep one of Mulvey or Humber(I prefer Humber) and add two guys a bit farther from ML ready to the trade I would say go for it. This doesn't even consider Alou leaving and not having a LF option better than Pagan without signing another FA. To get Santana the Mets will create two pitching and one OF hole without any internal options to fill them in 2009. I think the Mets are playoff caliber for years to come without Santana. If they get him they will be World Series caliber, but only for one year.
1:23 PM
The Braves rotation is deep with two guys who could be #1s. I like their rotation all the way through and I think they have depth.
It is solid for sure, but I am not as enormed with their offense as others outside of Tex and Chipper.
I know their relief corps was great last year, but I see that as a potential issue as well as losing Wickman is still losing a capable arm.
Soriano and Gonzo leading the charge is impressive with some other guys who emerged last year, but I am not overly concerned.
I agree it is troublesome, but they retain their top prospect and still have a young arm to boot. I still think they should get it done without Humber, but who knows. He shouldn't be the reason the deal gets help up.
Even without Humber and someone else subbed in it is probably a deeper group of prospects than anyone else is sending over there. I mean, two legit blue chippers is more than anyone else is dishing out and Mulvey is much better than Marquez, the third player in the Yankee deal.
I'm with you on Tex. I do not worry about that despite the fact Delgado's bucks will be off the book.
It will create holes and keeping Humber as well makes the deal a lot better, but we'll see. I think the Mets have a great framework there despite what the media will say. Real baseball people will appreciate that one.
Also, the deal is largely tied to what you think of Gomez. You either love him or hate him. If you love him, the deal looks really good.
1:40 PM
The Mets prospects may technically be inferior to the Red Sox and the Yankees but the Yankees are offering Melky Cabrera, enough said.
The Rockies were cool, they were a great story but they were INSANELY lucky. One of my co-workers is from Colorado and he took time off to go to some World Series games and he knew the deal, he went to the Game 4 and said that he was just happy to be there. He said he wasnt even mad the Red Sox won, he thought it was cool to see a team win a world series at Coors Field because he knows its going to be a long time before that happens again.
The Rockies making the World Series saved Clint Hurdle and Dan O'Dowd from losing thier jobs.
Tom Glavine leaving the MEts was a positive not a negative. Only we can udnerstand. I guess its kinda like "15 game winner Steve Traschel" creating a hole in the rotation, haha.
You think Willie can be fired mid-season?
I would love to see Willie fired mid-season while having Omar remain GM.
I feel bad for Fukudome already. Putting the pressure of him being the piece that makes the Cubs favorites in the NL Central? That's not fair to him. He's not a big homerun guy. He's Brian Giles! He's a guy that will have a .400 OBP with like 15 homeruns.
Grady Little couldn't repair the rift between the older and younger players on the Los Angeles roster.
I wonder who started the rift? Jealous and sucky veterans like Luis Gonzalez, scared to lose thier jobs?
Man I just looked at the Dodgers roster and Nomar is one incredibly OLD 33 year old, jeeze.
I'm excited for Glavine's first game at Shea. Just... excited.
For as nice a guy as he was, he was great in the community and I never felt he was an "undercover Brave" I wanna see him get SHALACKED. He's going to get booed bad and I'm going to feel a little bad because he did like New York and the fans. Too bad the feeling wasn't mutual.
Don't forget the Yankees will possibly have the WORST defense in the entire major leagues. They may not have the most errors, something young teams like the DBacks and the DRays do. They just don't have the range to get to balls, the arm to throw anyone out, its a pretty shitty defense and that's not good for a rotation relying on 2 and maybe 3 rookies.
Talking about Ken Griffey Jr. makes me sad. It just does, what could have been with him.
And I DO remember Griffey man! He had his own video game!
Griffey had his own sneakers! He was on par with Jordan!
When I was in Little LEague my first year, the coach asked me "What number do you want?"
My response was, "Whatever Ken Griffey Jr's number is, give me that one!!! I think its number 32" boy was I wrong and was I pissed when I went home that day and found out it was 24. That's when I learned to google and research everything in life.
I just have to mention that its funny that at the end of the day no matter what you think of the guy NO MENTION at all of Sammy Sosa and steroids. After all that has gone down for the past 7 years with Sammy, he has only been mentioned in SPECULATION and nothing even remotely close to steroids. Now, I do believe that he did end up using them but... you can't deny the fact nothing links him to steroids.
I personally don't think Greg Maddux is a story at all... He's good... we get it! He keeps winning and it'll be the norm. He starts to lose and suck and it'll be age.
Maddux won't be a story until he retires and is up for the hall of fame.
That's a serious deal for Johan. I don't care how the media people try to spin it, that's for 1 fuckin' season of Johan. That's a monster deal. And adding Fernando Martinez? Jeeze... that makes it over the top. That's hard man. If the Twins don't accept the current offer and its like... February I just might include Fernando Martinez...
Poor CHristina Snyder. This is the sad part of how shitty the economy is. SHe has to think of plans like this just to keep her home. The ecnomy is so shitty the Canadian Dollar has the same exact value as the American dollar. Sad, Sad, Sad.
1:55 PM
RE: Glavine...one we can understand. Everyone else thinks it is a loss. I am excited.
However, I still have not burned my Glavine shirt as I promised. Not because I don't want to, but I just haven't yet. Call it laziness. But you reminding me that he'll have to come back to Shea makes me wonder if there is not a better, more fitting fate awaiting that overpriced piece of shit jersey.
Any suggestions?
Great point. The defense out there is HORRENDOUS. Melky really is not good, Matsui is tragic. Damon is tragic. No arms whatsoever. Abreu is solid. I cannot deny that, but nothing special.
Fun, fun, fun watching them be all cute and try to field the ball.
Griffey was Jordan for a bit. Good point. He made me like Seattle and I had the old Seattle hat and everything. I did have a weird story that accompied that...I was at the dentist office with my Seattle hat and some old guy asks me if I liked them.
I say, yes. It was Erik Hanson's dad...anyone remember him? I, to his surprise probably, actually knew who he was. Anyway, he was kind enough to send me something autographed by him.
RE: Maddux, I respectfully disagree. In out time anyone winning that many games is a stud. I seriously doubt we see something like this for a loooooong time. It is a story.
You simply cannot add F-Mart under any circumstance. I firmly believe that off is the best offer right now. In three years would have been if Gomez and Guerra flame out? Perhaps not, but right now, it is the most talent going to the Twins. Although the Masterson, Lowrie, Lester, and Crisp deal is pretty tight as well. Take a look at Crisp's last two years with Cleveland. The dude might still be pretty valuable and was already 50% more valuable than Melky in '07.
Melky is a joke. Really, can we stop mentioning him in a deal as if he carries any weight?
2:16 PM
Regarding Maddux its not that he's irrelevant. Its the fact he's been doing what he's been doing for so long that we're not impressed with it. Its like we're taking Maddux for granted. That's why to me he's not a big story. It's like saying Derek Jeter or Frank Thomas or Albert Pujols is some kind of big story.
Yeah all those guys are hitters and only one of them is 40 years old but you get my drift.
2:21 PM
Ah. I see. However, it is still a big story because I see it as a milestone that few others will every reach again. Ignoring it because he has been so good for so long will be silly because it is a special accomplishment.
My point is, let us not take it for granted and let the golden shower giving crafty right hander get his due while he is in the midst of this great run.
When Jeter, Thomas, or Pujols are passing some insane milestone, then great. But they are just building their numbers to get to that point. Maddux is there now.
2:45 PM
maddux is the fucking man... him and pedro will go down as the greatest of this era.
dont sleep on the RF douche bag in atlanta. he can hit his ass off. their catching situation is solid too. they will have enough offense. btw, FUCK kelly johnson and brian jordan.
2:52 PM
Frenchy and his 19 homers and marginal discipline do not scare me. Nice player, great arm, but nothing to lose sleep over.
Jones was just as valuable as Frenchy last year with a year that paled in comparison on the surface. He is 75% of the player Wright is and the Mets have two other players just as valuable as Wright. They just do not stack up.
Their offense is nice and conistent, but really lacks power if Frechy does not revert back to 2006. I still think they will be tough and have a well rounded team, but I am not scared of them at all. Willie is the Mets worst enemy with his all too complacent demeanor and lack of understand of managing the game.
Probably a really nice guy and a good dad and all that, but we are talking about baseball and he does not cut it.
2:59 PM
Wow, I'm on a once-a-week check in here in midwinter and you've posted a ton of great stuff. Solid start to 2008, Mike. Keep up the good work.
So, to rewind, very strong point about the picks the Mets got for Glavine getting signed by Atlanta. That's just icing on the addition by subtraction cake. I also appreciated the breakdown of rightfielders, second basemen and catchers. All good points, the Mets should at least equal their offensive output from last year.
Quiety getting better seems to be the theme this offseason. I was hoping for something a bit more splashy after last year's letdown, but the ecomonics of the game has changed so much. Now, it seems, every team is signing their (good)younger players to long-term deals. I can see this year's weak free agent class as a harbinger of things to come.
3:22 PM
rick m, you have to get back on the wagon man. We stop for nothing and this winter has been an especially boring one. However, with pitchers and catchers coming back soon, we'll have more to talk about.
As for splashy, I think there might be a better than 50/50 chance the biggest splash of all happens in Queens.
I broke down the rumored Santana deals a bit more for my own bad self and realized the Mets deal is actually quite good while the Yankee deal as actually quite bad in comparison and basically one player of any substantial worth alone.
3:32 PM
i believe colorado will win 85-90 games. while that probably won't be enough to get them back into the playoffs, they will still be a very competitive team.
they have an american league offense paired with an excellent defense. helton will be helton. holliday will have another outstanding year. hawpe will still be underrated. and tulowitzki should have been the rookie of the year. his defense is awesome and not something that was given enough credit by the voters. his first month in 2007 sucked. i can't see that happening again in 08.
the one thing that will hold colorado down is their pitching. if hirsh, jimenez, and morales blossom, they will have a definite playoff contender. if not, they will be slightly better than .500.
3:52 PM
100% agree. Their pitching is the wild card, but I sided with the idea that young pitching either falls apart or regresses a bit before it gets better. I love the arms, but I doubt their growing pains are over and will allow them to keep up with the big boys with more established talent.
That in addition to the rough NL West, 83 games seems about right. That is going to be a fun division to watch for a while.
4:02 PM
The Santana thing was just reported on mlb.com as well that the Mets are gaining steam in the race. Something tells me this deal is going to go down with the Mets. Usually when Omar wants something this bad he stops at no cost to get it. He never wanted Zito last year and let him go. But when he wants something bad he usually gets it.
The scary part about this is the "stops at no cost to get it" part. Hopefully he doesn't blow the entire farm out as we've discussed here to get it. The deal as put in the article, Gomez, Mulvey, Humber, Guerra being offered, I'm all over that. If that's what it takes, let's get it done. I think that is a fair deal on both sides (as long as we get the extension). He is the best pitcher in baseball (imo). He will have an immediate major impact and it will last. It would be a good anchor to latch on to for many years to come. That being said, don't give up Martinez. He will place nicely in a corner spot in 09/10.
I've noticed a couple comments of how we could have a shot at the world series this year, but that's not as good as having a shot for the next decade. Let's make things clear, we are talking about the Mets. If we do actually have a shot a championship this year, I fucking want that shot. We've had one in my lifetime. We are not the Yankees, we are not even the Marlins (two in a decade). I want to be dominant for a long period of time like everyone else, but man, if we get Santana and can make a legit run this year, let's do it. I really want to experience that shit again. I don't believe it ruins the Mets with the resources they have if they make this deal. Let's just all be realistic though, if we have a real shot at a championship, we HAVE to go for it within some sort of reason. Get Santana.
4:17 PM
If the Mets trade Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra for Santana and no major player get injured 2008 will be a great season. That said, a net of $15M more than 2008will be available in 2009 (excluding Santana)to sign Perez, Pedro (or another starter), a left fielder and Texeria. If Santana get $20M the payroll before filling these holes is $5M greater in 2009 than 2008 w/o Santana. Another solid year from Perez means he demands about $12-15M/year, another $10M for Pedro or his replacement, $15M/yr for Texeria, and figure $6M/yr for a LFer. A payroll increase of about $45M to replace talent with similar levels of talent. If I believed the Wilpon's would go for a $160M payroll then Santana would be an easy decision. That said, I would still be pumped if Santana became a Met. Santana, Pedro, Perez, Maine, & Pelfrey. Holy Shit! If Citi Park and SNY generate the revenue for a $160M payroll in 2009, do it. I just don't want it to be torture to watch the 2009 & 2010 Mets because they have two hole in their line-up and two (or 3)in their rotation and finish behind the Braves & Phillies. I've watched too many seasons of the Mets not being playoff contenders, it's just no fun.
5:04 PM
Anthony, you know what. You are absoulutely right. To me there was no greater feeling than the Mets being in the playoffs.
Being born in the late 80's. The 1986 team didn't even happen for me, at all, its just not a part of my lifetime. Then there's the 1998-2000 seasons, some of them with lots of pain and anguish but in the end I was still pretty young.
2006 came and I'm older, love the team more, and had money. I went to the playoffs. I went to 3 games and spent a shit load of money on tickets and it was worth it. There was nothing better than watching an NLCS game with the Mets winning.
I want to experience that again. I want to go ape shit on a Mets World Series win.
11:31 PM
'The 1986 team didn't even happen for me, at all, its just not a part of my lifetime.'
I was only five. I remember it vaguely. Just highlights on the news. Its really surreal watching those games on DVD.
If I were watching the end of Game 6 of the 1986 WS, i'm quite sure I wouldn't know how to act... but i'd sure as HELL be snorting blow off a hookers chest afterwards in celebration.
Really, its been nothing but bad memories wrt the Mets and the playoffs. The dorm room brawl after some Yankee fan cracks a joke about Kenny Rogers a second after it happens, in a room full of sixty Mets fans. The MFY's getting every fucking break in the WS. I have a nice anecdote relating Todd Pratt's HR, but really... meh.
Now that I think about it, just blow Shea the fuck up already.
Or don't. Lowsy fucking laws.
Emad
8:38 AM
jesus, more power to you youngins. If i didn't have memories of '86, I don't know how I'd soldier on.
1:00 PM
1986 was my senior year in college. My college was halfway between NYC and Boston. Good times, good times.
11:17 AM
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