A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Prospect Hoarding

The Yankees made an about face in regards to their organizational strategy and one has to wonder if they have taken it too far in refusing to package Kennedy up with Hughes to land Johan.

Last year Philip Hughes was ranked as Baseball America's #1 minor league pitching prospect. Is it reasonable to thus expect him to fulfill his expectations? Let us look at BA's top three pitching prospects each year starting with 1990: Steve Avery, Ben McDonald, Kiki Jones; 1991 - Todd Van Poppel, Roger Salkeld, Arthur Rhodes; 1992 - Brien Taylor, Van Poppel, Salkeld; 1993 - Taylor, Van Poppel, Jason Bere; 1994 - James Baldwin, Jose Silva, Darren Dreifort; 1995 - Armando Benitez, Bill Pulsipher, Alan Benes; 1996 - Paul Wilson, Benes, Livan Hernandez; 1997, 1998 - Kerry Wood, Matt White, Kris Benson; 1999 - Rick Ankiel, Bruce Chen, Brad Penny; 2000 - Ankiel, Ryan Anderson, John Patterson; 2001 - Josh Beckett, Jon Rauch, Ben Sheets; 2002 - Beckett, Mark Prior, Juan Cruz; 2003 - Jesse Foppert, Jose Contreras, Gavin Floyd; 2004 - Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, Scott Kazmir.

I am not saying that Hughes will be worthless, but you keep hearing Rob Neyer mention in chats that any young pitcher is and extremely unlikely bet to win 100 games in their career. For the Yankees who are looking to put wins up now and compete now, Johan is just about a slam dunk to outperform Hughes over the next seven years and add more value if you remove money from the equation, which is not something I would typically encourage for teams not the Yankees.

Also, the Yankees have built a ton of depth. They have Joba, who might be Jebus incarnate, and Horne as pitching prospects near big league ready if they did move Hughes and Kennedy. The comparison between Horne and Kennedy has been that Kennedy is more refined whereas Horne has better stuff, but further away from contributing and less of a bet to attain his ceiling.

You also cannot ignore the existence of Humber Sanchez, though counting on him shouldn't be high on the Yankees to do list, the high ceiling of Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman who could be just as good as any pitching prospect out there. In fact, many teams would be ecstatic to have those five as their top arms and some might actually murder someone. I'm not talking about murder in the hyperbole sense, but actual cold blooded murder. Also, te Yankees can feel free to draft more pitching in 2008 to supplant the two that they lost.

The Yankees could spend on Johan and not blink. They have serious cash coming off the books in 2009 that will easily cover his salary and will be able to add more revenue after their new stadium opens up. Some teams are not in a postion to give up two of their three best pitching prospects, but the Yankees are one of the few teams that could do that. Throw on top of it the fact that if you get Johan Santana, Boston does not get him and that is no small thing considering the best team in the bigs would get substantially better. That should help assauge any wound left by missing out whatever Hughes turns into.

I like how the Yankees now value their young players, but having Kennedy be a deal breaker is truly silly, unless they really do not want Santana. With Wang and Joba around, the Yankees will still have youth in the rotation with more on the way. If the interest is genuine on the Yankees behalf, it is beyond me how it has not gotten done as of yet. They simply cannot get this deal done with Melky as the #2 piece the Twins are getting back and giving up Kennedy in addition to Hughes should be an acceptable casuality for the Yankees and a great haul for the Twins.


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  • I'm all for making fun of people, but the NY Times really did not need to do this. The man looks funny enough as is, but they felt it necessary to pick an image to make him look even more ridiculous.

    It does however look like he is gearing up for National Talk Like a Pirate Day.

  • Many people think that the Tigers looking to extend Willis before he has even thrown a pitch is crazy. It is, but not as crazy as people think. Unless his arm falls off, he will strangely enough be worth it and possibly even a bargain. With the going rate of crappy innings eaters, he should be at least worth what is being bandied about and he will not cost them a four year deal at $11+ million down the line. Sure he might toss up a 5.00 ERA, but that type of production has become expensive these days.

    The Tigers get him for a three years as opposed to a four year deal that he would be looking for on the open market and for a few million less than they would have to pay a comparable pitcher. Also, the upside is that if he gets a bit of his mojo back, he is unequivocally a bargain. So while on the surface it looks insane just like the Gil Meche deal did, it will probably end up not looking quite as bad just like the Meche deal.

  • By way of Ossy...

    The real hard part is to watch the entire thing at work. I had made it about 1/3 of the way through before I had to shut it off due to excessive laughing at wacky foreigners.

  • Zappos.com kicks ass. I ordered a nifty pair of sneakers from there at about 8:30 on Wednesday night. Those bad boys were at my doorstep the next day at about 7:00 Thursday night and I had the pleasure of not paying any shipping.


  • UPDATE: Want a Wii? Loyal ready Ossy is dishing one off. Call him, buy it, and enjoy.

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    13 Comments:

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Pete Rose is a clown. And if he isn't he'd make a great clown for kids!

    Fucking Nintendo Wii's are madness. I've had mine since lastyear :-) AndI didn't have to put up with ridiculous lines or any hastle.

    Baseball has been very very boring the past couple of days.

    Volquez got traded to Reds for Josh Hamilton.

    5:50 PM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    Prospects are really suspects, the list you furnished proves that. The problem the METS face is us.
    Our expectations are high, we are a big market team and we want them to act like one. In the upcoming draft we have 3 picks from 18-to 32, Omar no more pitchers get some BATS.
    This is a screwed up year when it comes to front office moves ... no one wants to make one, no one pulls the trigger anymore except a few, trades should be win win not win you lose sucker. I'm willing to be fair but trust me when the next trade is announced the team who is getting a high priced player will pay a lot less than what those teams ask Omar for, they know he is under the gun and he has to win NOW.

    5:58 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    The Wii does kick ass. Enough said. I'm waiting on the sideline for now and since my Xbox is catching dust, I am not in all that much of a rush.

    That Reds deal is an interesting one for sure. I guess they are out of the Bedard thing and it seems that MacPhail is still asking for the moon.

    "trades should be win win not win you lose sucker"

    Right! That is my biggest pet peeve. I do feel that Omar is a good trading partner who is not looking to rip people off. Obviously if you can, you do it, but he generally gives out fair deals.

    7:42 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    My niece purchased a Wii' for her daughter for $250 and complained that the batteries keep on failing. It’s an expensive toy for the kids but at least it will give them some exercise.

    Please don’t mention Meche as it brings forth bad memories and causes me to vent. Last year I was predominantly posting at Metsblog and Mets geek. I championed the Mets going after Meche and Lilly and was ripped apart by the resident geniuses. At least I was smart enough not to comeback later and remind them of their foolishness. To do so would have caused them to attack me in a manner reminiscent of a pack of wolves with teeth bared. Now I can defend myself either verbally or physically as the case may be (my childhood was spent in Bed-Sty) but my posts would have been deleted and I would have been banned. These resident geniuses spend a great deal of time puckering up to the administrators. I guess the old saying “either at their throats or at their heels” applies here.

    In that photo Pete Rose reminds me of the Joe The Bartender character played by Jackie Gleason.

    It could take up to a year for the league to adjust to Willis. In the mean time with the Tigers’ offense he should win his share of games. A smart move by an intelligent organization.

    Omar has to commit himself to building up the Mets farm system so he can compete in the trade market without leaving the Mets minor league system destitute. We have to be patient.

    Hank’s frequent quotes have got to make life very difficult for Cashman. But it would be smart for them to pull the trigger on that trade and it would probably reward them with another Ring.

    11:34 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    -Scott

    Awesome Pete Rose picture!

    He said "Garrr, so it be a book you be wantin signed?"

    Guy is a complete idiot and should not in anyway be allowed near baseball ever again.

    I am truly worried by the team right now. We lost offense at catcher, 2nd base is aging fast although does have a good OBP, RF is unknown and LF is old and always injured. Add to this thefact that we have two spots open in the rotation and the only names we hear filling them are Lohse and Blanton!

    "Garr, it be a new team me be wantin! Shiver me timbers!"

    12:51 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    2x4,

    Meche would have been swellicious, but no one would have endorsed that contract in queens at first. People are shortsighted sometimes..but you need to ignore that shit like Omar does.

    You are right....we need to be patient like Omar.

    Scott....have faith my man. Have faith!

    2:33 AM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    My niece purchased a Wii' for her daughter for $250 and complained that the batteries keep on failing. It’s an expensive toy for the kids but at least it will give them some exercise.

    Tell her to spend $30 on this charge station that recharges the batteries for two wii controllers. It's a great investment! Never have to worry about batteries ever again.

    4:12 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    El Sid named in the Radomski affadivit? I've heard it all now....I've heard it all!

    7:36 AM

     
    Anonymous Ken said...

    I changed jobs and can no longer read and post at work. That sucks.

    I'll tell you what doesn't suck though; zappos.com. I too bought shoes and had them in less than 24 hours with no shipping cost. I wish zappos.com could become our new Mets manager. They are balls deep.

    9:01 PM

     
    Anonymous ossy` said...

    i sold the wii.... thanks for the hook up mike.

    most wouldnt have endorsed the meche signing bc of the numbers. if you ever saw his stuff when he was healthy, everyone wouldve cosigned on that deal.

    9:14 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Good stuff Ossy....was it by way of the site or on CL?

    Ken, I fully endorse Zappos.com being the manager of the Mets. The efficiency level over there is off the charts.

    2:08 PM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    I laughed a lot when I read the list of top prospects over the past 15 years. Interestingly, Beckett and Sabathia weren't on the list, and they came up through SOMEONE'S systems.

    Even more interesting is that a team will eventually pay a high price in prospects and cash for a player that was picked up by the Marlins in the 1999 rule 5 draft, and then traded to the Twins for Jared Camp. So basically any team could have had him.

    Don't you think that Willis' success has been fed by emotion? The last couple of years the Marlins have sucked, and I think he has had trouble being motivated. He will not have that problem with the Tigers.

    Does anyone believe anything that Clemens says? This is a guy who said he was retiring, yet he applied for free agency the first day he could in 2003. A guy who said he wanted to be closer to his family, so he signed as a free agent with the Blue Jays. He said he never did steroids, or HGH? Yeh, I believe him.

    It looks like the Reds don't think that Hamilton can do it again, or stay drug free, so they are trying to sell high.

    10:51 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    -Scott

    If I don't get the chance...have a great festivus everybody!

    3:08 AM

     

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