A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Still Looking...

The Mets would still like to add a starter and not much has materialized so far. No one is all that interested in Met prospects but Jim Bowden and it is becoming increasingly clear that Bedard and Santana will probably be somewhere other than Queens and Carlos Silva is off the market. However, Kyle Lohse still remains on the market with his ridiculous contract demands. I think Silva is valuable, but four at $11 million is steep and Lohse is represented by Boras and is making noise about a five year deal.

It would be nice to see if the Mets can get Lohse down in years (and I’m not talking about the purported four year deal on the table), but that seems impossible at this point. He is the last guy to resemble a pitcher that might be able to drop a better than league average season on you. Of course, Silva has at least put up some of those seasons while Lohse has been pretty disappointing throughout his career. Neither guy can actually strike hitters out which is always a problem and will probably keep them both from being anything more than #3/#4 type guy at best. Silva is supposed to be a groundball pitcher, but he is only mildly so and probably better classified as a pitcher with groundball tendencies.

Stats Inc. on Lohse:

Pitching
Too often in 2004, Lohse left his fastball over the middle of the plate, nibbled with his breaking pitches and fell behind, or issued hurtful walks. While he has good stuff, he can't overpower hitters with a 93-94 MPH fastball. He must locate the ball to succeed. Lohse has a good slider and curveball, but needs to consistently execute his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball. When in trouble, he has bad mound presence, looking disgusted by umpires' calls and teammates' mistakes. Near the end of the season, he began handling himself better. To his credit, he always has been durable and willing to take the ball under any circumstances.


While it is clear to me Carlos Silva is a better bet to be more productive, his demands scared the Mets away. The ironic thing is the Mets might end up paying just as much for less of a pitcher. Pitching is so scarce that any guy who makes 30 starts and hits free agency around 30 years old will net four years at $10+ million dollars per year. Regardless of projection and past performance, they are a valuable commodity by simply being alive. The Mets have set a cap of five years on any offer to free agent pitchers. However, that cap is presumably for top tier pitchers and they probably were not envisioning the Kyle Lohses of the world when they thought of guys that would actually get them to even pony up close to five years.

There have reportedly been reports of people reporting that Phillies are looking at Lohse for four years. It has also been reportedly reported that some reports had some misreporting on the topic. Interest in Lohse could be waning overall and for good reason. However, Lohse has Scott Boras as his agent and will wait until late January to make a decision if he has to in order to get someone to blink first. My only hope here is that the market for Lohse gets dryer than it already has now that Silva inked. Maybe Boras will do the one year deal route with a contender in a spacious park to see if he can bring in a bigger deal for Lohse in 2009. That is actually what I am hoping for at this point which is pretty sad.

* * *

  • The saga continues. If A-Rod is telling the truth, you almost have to respect him a bit more. Almost.

  • By way of Rob Neyer, a really great site. This is a black hole of sorts if you have not read it before and it will probably end up usurping a lot of your time.

  • Selig back in '05

    "Did we have a major problem? No," Selig told Waxman's panel. "There is no concrete evidence of that, there is no testing evidence, there is no other kind of evidence."

    It all depends on how your define the problem.

  • The Mets inked Matt Wise and it's a one year deal for peanuts....well peanuts in relative baseball terms. And how can you not like the move?

  • Does anyone actually believe any of this?

  • I'm not all that bothered by raising the tickets 20% per ticket if that is what they planned on raising the ticket prices to for comparable seats in the new stadium. We knew that was the case and maybe Fred just wanted to pocket a little extra cash this season since he is dishing up a lot of money for that new stadium.

    However, I think we all know that is not the case. He was probably looking for a 40% price hike from 2007 to 2009 and decided it was best to do it in stages. The worst part is that it will not matter. He already has most of my money for my tickets because I had to buy the playoffs tickets. I could have gotten my money back I suppose, but sometime in mid 2008, which is way after the bill for the 2008 tickets are due, which leads me to the most ridiculous part. I already committed to buying these tickets a long time ago without any knowledge they were going to bend me over and abuse me.

    Not that it would have mattered. I would have bought the tickets regardless, but it still should be mentioned that I had no choice. But isn't that the real problem here? Sure this is horrible PR move by the Mets being they just embarrassed themselves and broke the spirit of the Mets fan base, but we all keep going to the games. They will still break last year's attendance or at the very least get within 20% of it, which will enable them to still make a handsome draw off the gate receipts. I would love to say boycott going to the stadium, but what's the point? I am still going to go and that would be hypocritical of me to tell everyone else to take a stand while I go enjoy some beers at the stadium.

    Either way, this is just another poorly timed statement that gives other people more reasons to laugh at the Mets. After undergoing a historic collapse in which the team sets their attendance record for the second year in a row with the help of their loyal fans, they do what? Raise prices. As if the 500,000 more in attendance was not enough....

    The Yankees raised their tickets prices as well.

  • Doesn't Brian Roberts, Andy Pettite, etc. admitting that they did steroids give a ton of credence to the Mitchell Report? Sure we can argue the validity of their statements in regards to their usage, but it surely gives everyone a sense that maybe this thing is not as bogus as some would want us to believe.

  • The Mets are looking at Prior, but would the Mets be a wise choice? It would seem to make sense for him to go to some Midwest town like St. Louis where the fan base will cheer you on no matter what so he can make a less pressure filled attempt at a comeback.

  • A miserable life? Has it come to this? I thought these were supposed to be good times to be a Met fan.

    Terrence (NYC): John!!! A Mets questions please. Only fair, I lead a miserable life. Can you tell me what I can expect from Fernando Martinez? What current player would you compare him to?

    John Manuel: (2:51 PM ET ) Best-case, his career winds up a bit like Carlos Lee's--all the value in the bat but he mashes, hits for decent average, gets more disciplined as he advances . . . both players were pushed but even the White Sox let up a bit on Carlos, he was 18 in the SAL, not the EL. But that's my comp.


  • Back off my man? This is all getting odd.

  • Parcells to Miami? As a Dolphin fan, it is hard to be upset about that. I won’t expect him to be around in the organization for long, but I think he has a pretty good reputation for leaving a decent team behind.

  • From Jason Stark:

    The Mets still seem like a hanger-on in the Johan Santana talks. But one AL front-office man isn't sure why that is.
    For one thing, he said, the Mets can put together a package that would be attractive to the Twins -- in part because outfield prospect Fernando Martinez "has a higher ceiling than Jacoby Ellsbury."
    The second reason, the exec said, is that the Twins should make it a priority to move Santana out of their league. "Remember, the Twins are looking to compete, too," he said. "They're gearing up with good young players, and they're going to be good. But if they trade him to the Red Sox or Yankees, those teams are so deep, it wouldn't even really take a chunk out of them, or not that much of a chunk, anyway.

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  • 12 Comments:

    Anonymous mikeinspaininLA(inNY) said...

    Mike,

    I agree that many details in the Mitchell Report are likely true, the admissions by Pettite and Roberts and Vina don't prove more than each of them tried HGH once or twice and then never again, and only because they were hurt. Are they lying? Maybe. But maybe they're not. And to lump in a guy who took HGH a few times when he was injured, who never benefitted from it, with the Jose Cansecos of the world doesn't go a long way of explaining anything.

    example: Did Brian Roberts incredible power surge a few years ago come from steroid use? We still have no idea.

    Man I wish we'd sign Santana.

    12:38 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Ha ha...

    Olney says Beane is looking for Gomez, Heilman, and Mulvey for Blanton. That would reportedly get a deal done.

    You think?

    Well, the Pettite, Roberts, and Vina thing just really serves to point out the fact they did it. Now they want to come out and say they did it once or twice? It is really not shocking that they are met by skeptics.

    I agree everyone cannot be lumped into the same group as everyone else in the sense you are talking about. However, I just hold this time of baseball in a different regards. Some true accomplishments get dimished a bit, but what can we do?

    RE: Roberts...that power surge certainly looks curious now, no? I am not saying that it is impossible for that type of thing to happen....It happens. Shit, it happens to everyone on a certain scale when everything clicks, but it's a curious.

    Santana would be nice. I'm so blah about this team and this off-season right now. I just want to play some baseball so Pedro can prove he IS an ace still.

    1:09 PM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    Living in Cincinnati, I have to get my baseball fix by watching the Reds most of the time. I never miss a Mets game on CW11, ESPN, or when they are playing the Reds, but these games are just not enough to satisfy my jones. The reason I’m saying this is that I’ve seen Kyle Lohse pitch a lot. He has good stuff at first glance, but exposes his weaknesses quickly. He has little movement on his fastball and his secondary stuff is overrated. He does not have an out pitch. He cannot put a batter away. To put it mildly, he SUCKS. I hated him on the Reds and I only like the Reds because my kids are growing up here and they like the Reds (except my 13 year old daughter - daddy’s little girl loves the Mets!). He is frustrating to watch and easy to begin hating. NY will eat him alive. Think Victor Zambrano without the Kazmir baggage. Ten million a year over four years? This piece of crap isn’t worth five million for one year. If the Mets got him cheap for a year I could live with that, but anything else is a freakin’ joke and a waste of money. The Mets already have four pitchers not in last year’s rotation that would be better than this clown (Heilman, Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey). I want him to go to any NL East team other than the Mets – just for the BP the Mets hitters will see from him more often. Please, Omar, please say this isn’t going to happen. Not only is he a monumental waste of money, he will be a pariah by the middle of the season if you pay him the big bucks. And, by the way, he isn’t a 3 or 4; he is a 5 on a mediocre to bad rotation. He is that bad. Mark my words.

    2:09 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    -Scott

    It seems to me that Lohse offers nothing that Pelfrey cannot deliver. If we want a pitcher to throw crap then give the ball to a youngster and have him learn. Lohse is just a dumb, expensive move. It may seem funny but Kris Benson Maybe a better pick up than Lohse.

    Jason Jennings, Colon and Prior are all better pick up than Lohse. And Matt Clement is out there also. Ok these guys have some injury problems but each is much better than Lohse.

    Blanton is being talked about again. Just say no to Mr.Beane. He is asking way too much as usual. Keep the youngsters and pick up 2 FA starters.

    2:40 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Cincy should be fun to watch, no? They have some great young players and actually are looking like they have a bright future. I thought the Cordero signing was horrible at first, but now I like it. Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Edwin (if they play him), Hamilton, Cueto....

    Not a bad team to get your baseball fix on.

    RE: Lohse...what you say makes sense, but do they have much of a choice? I guess the real question is, does getting Lohse shift the Duque to the pen or Pelfrey to the pen or AAA? If it's the latter...keep him away from the Mets. I think the Mets need to give Pelfrey or Humber a shot and I think they need more reliability in the rotation than The Duque. Lohse at least gives that.

    That being said, four years is horrendous. Amazing...what the hell are they going to have to give Oliver Perez?

    Scott...I still liked the Benson signing. It did not work out and all, but he is bascially what we are looking for, no? Middle of the road starter? There are none of those out there and this year's version of Kris Benson isn't what I'm talking about.

    I still think they will get Freddy Garcia and I would love Prior if it means The Duque goes to the pen and is the first guy back in the rotation if someone goes down. However...when will Prior be ready?

    Lohse still gives 200 innings and some certainty...but that cannot be overvalued in the form of a Carlos Silva contract.

    2:48 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    I don't get Kyle Loshe, he has pretty good stuff but he doesn't strike anyone out. That's almost all you need to know. He pitches like an idiot. Lohse sucks but its getting bad for the Mets and starting pitching.

    Regarding the whole steroids thing, if one supplier can net around 80 names, I am going to believe what Caminiti said about 50% of ball players being on steroids. Not that it matters now...

    T.O. would kill Jessica Simpson in a fight.

    Parcels is one of the few that can fix that joke of a franchise.

    A couple of days ago I said I wanted Matt Wise. The Mets got Matt Wise and I'm expected to be happy. After spending an entire day dedicated to video I am convinced that Matt Wise sucks. He is useless. Damn you Matt Wise for tricking me into believeing you were good because you are bad.

    4:59 PM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    Its mind boggling that middle of the road pitchers are getting 11 mil a year...
    If Omar does nothing I can understand none of these guys are worth it and I would rather go with Home grown pitchers than whats out there except for one and that would be Livan but for one year and no more than ( i can't believe i'm writing this 7 mil).

    7:16 PM

     
    Blogger Itsmetsforme said...

    After reading the above, i'm saying no to Lousey. I was reminded of watching Trashill for all those years and how long it can take to drive a mediocre pitcher out of town, once he has his hooks into you, the "he eats innings"-fear of the unknown argument that makes gms resign their own trash. Anyhow, if this is the kind of guy gms are willing to toss $10 mil at, then they need to reframe their views of what counts as pitching.

    just read the spankers are thinking of considering potentially watching a kris benson workout. That's what I'm talking about.

    This has been the worst off season in recent memory so far. About 20% worse, I'd say.

    8:57 PM

     
    Anonymous MikeinSpaininLA(inNY) said...

    Mike,

    You laugh about Olney throwing out Gomez, Heilman and Mulvey for Blanton... but Olney's for it, metsblog's for it, and soon enough the papers will be all over it. Ugh. Joe Blanton. We'd be better off letting Heilman start and keeping Gomez, now that Milledge was traded for a bag of balls.

    I hate this offseason.

    11:04 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    -Scott

    I agree with you SpanishMike, this off season sucks! It sucks so bad it is swelliciously bad. So much hope at the beginning and now a deep rooted feeling of 'make way I'm about to puke!'

    Prior...Yes
    Garcia...Hmm, maybe
    Colon...Hmm, ok
    Clement...Yes
    Blanton for Heilman, et al....Oh I feel sick.

    10:41 AM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    Mr. Met – Yeah, the Reds could be fun to watch this year. When I moved here it was for a job – I didn’t really want to move to this area, but I figured Cincy’s a baseball town, how bad can it be? The natives tell me it’s still a baseball town, but I don’t see it. After living in Jersey for so many years and making the journey to Shea, you can’t fathom how easy it is to get to the ball park here. I live 28 miles away and it takes me 30 minutes to get there and park. The park is awesome for fans and hitters alike (not so much for pitchers). Yet the Reds play to a mostly empty stadium every game (except when the Mets play there – I am home in the sea of blue!). My friend who grew up here tells me that when the Reds are winning it transforms into a baseball town. Isn’t that true anywhere? He tells me it will be different. Supposedly the suns shines everyday, the alcohol flows freely, and the women are easy. Hopefully we’ll see that this year. Not only are the players you named full of potential, but they sport the most under rated ace in baseball (Harang) and, in my opinion, the best second baseman (Phillips). Hopefully they will do well against everyone but the Mets and this town will show some signs of life.

    You bring up some good points about Lohse (200 innings and some certainty) but at what price? I believe his is good for 180 innings and 8 wins. In a lot of ways it is easier to accept that from one pitcher as opposed to 3 or 4 as has been done in the past. But it has to come cheap from him, which I don’t see happening. If they pay him too much he will be run out of town and the Mets will eat the contract. If he signed for what he is worth and went out there every 5 days and ate 180 innings the fans would like and respect him. But if he gets 40M over four years and gives the same thing the fans will fucking hate him. These guys set themselves up for failure when they sign these greedy contracts, but who is to blame? It’s not like these GMs have a gun to their heads.

    11:19 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Lohse and his low K rate is weird.

    Wise can be decent Benny….keep your head up!

    Steve, some sanity! That is going to be the gist of my post on Monday. I agree that is sucks watching this team be stuck in neutral, but making a move for the sake of making one and at a heavy commitment is not the answer.

    I would love Benson in the Bronx. That would make things all right.....

    And thanks for quantifying how bad this off-season has been exactly. I just trying to find that shit on google the other day.

    Mikeinspain….that is horrendous. Who can consciously get behind that move? I mean, I would love to have Blanton there, but not at that cost. I understand you are paying for years under service and paying heavily for that, but man…I’m not so sure the Mets can’t get that production from elsewhere and keep the kids.

    Scott, it is increasingly apparent the Mets might need to just take a gamble on the rotation spot and feel comfy with the depth of The Duque, Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey. You have to trust them at some point...

    Easy woman and alcohol? Shit, maybe I'll move out there if they start winning.

    As for Lohse...who is in on him anymore? It is possible that his list of suitors has substantially dried up. Of course if the price comes down, people might get interesteed again, but right now, it is not looking great for Lohse and maybe the Mets can capitalize on that.

    12:02 PM

     

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