A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Santana, Santana, and more Santana

So everyone wants to get Santana and give up nothing for him? Fantastic! But hardly realistic. When it comes to trades scenarios, nothing good comes from listening to fans call into radio shows and say what they think. However, people just have to understand that you have to give up something good to get something good back.

Doug (NY): Am I naive to think that over the next 6 years, I'd rather have Hughes (for approx $6M) than Santana (for approx $150M)

SportsNation Rob Neyer: It depends on which team you're running. If you're running the Yankees and you want to make a *profit* you want Hughes. But if you're running the Yankees and you want to win (while still making a profit, but a smaller one) you want Santana. It's important to remember that Hughes, for all his talent, probably won't win 100 games in the majors, simply because so many bad things can happen to a young pitcher.


I think Neyer hits the nail on the head here. It is worth it if you are the New York Yankees simply for the fact they will drop $20 million per year on a player and not blink.

Adam (NYC): It's hard to believe that Santana will win another 100 games though...wouldn't Hughes have a better chance of reaching that mark than a 29 year old pitcher past his prime? If the Yanks sign Santana to a 10 year extension, they'd be paying Santana $20 million a year at age 39...at the same time Hughes would be entering the prime of his career. Can you say Kevin Brown? Not a very wise business move to say the least.

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Adam, here's a chance for some research. Go back and make a list of 20 pitching prospects with Hughes' credentials. Then make a list of 20 pitchers with Santana's credentials. I'll bet you the Santana comps won more games afterward than the Hughes comps did.


Doug (NY): A little research; according to BA, the top pitching prospects since 1990: S.Avery, T.Van Poppell, B.Taylor, Bere, J.Baldwin, B.Pulsipher, P.Wilson, K.Wood, R.White, R.Ankiel, R.Anderson, J.Beckett, M.Prior, J.Foppert, E.Jackson, F.Hernandez, Liriano. It's too early to tell on some of them (King Felix for example), but other than Beckett, not really a list of HOFers

SportsNation Rob Neyer: Exactly. Thank you for doing what I couldn't do. Granted, Hughes has done more than Van Poppel or Taylor or some of those other guys had done at his age. But the point still holds, I think.


I know the Yankees have been saying they are reluctant to part with Hughes or Joba, but it is just posturing. They would be happy to part with Hughes for Santana and they would especially be happy if Pettite does not come back. Only problem is, the Yankees probably do not have the juice to get the deal done if they fail to include Joba or Cano, which they probably will not. Hughes and Cabrera? As popular as that might be as a deal for Yankee fans, it is 190% improbable. What about throwing in Austin Jackson? Maybe if he put up those numbers at AAA instead of A ball. What about throwing in Kennedy? Depends how good you think he can be, but the Twins still fail to get a bat and Cabrera is not even close to being the productive bat that they need.

“If we make a trade for anybody, it’s going to be fair for both sides,” Steinbrenner said. “We’re not looking to rob anybody. We’re also not going to give up all of our future for one player, even if it is a pitcher.”

Basically, I cannot see the Yankees landing Santana without giving away all four of those guys. As for the Mets, they would literally have to hand them over their top four prospects and Lastings Milledge. A Pelfrey and Milledge deal is just a tick below Hughes and Cabrera because Milledge is head and shoulders going to be a more productive player on the offensive side of things than Melky, but he Mets have little else afterwards. Maybe if the Mets give up Gomez or F-Mart and toss in Guerra for good measure they might get their attention, but Mets successfully put their system into the bottom five of the bigs in the process, which is a bad thing for a team that does not have unlimited resources.

"Someone asked me what I thought of our team," Wagner said in an interview with MLB.com. "I said, 'What team?' We've lost 13 games [Glavine's victory total], and now we are going have to give up something to get those games back. I'm afraid we're just going to create other holes if we give up a [Lastings] Milledge, a [Mike] Pelfrey or a Heilman."

Again, for what it would take the Mets to get him, I just do not think it is worth it. Who gets him? I'm not sure, but the Yankees seem like the best landing spot given their ability to spend. However, given their tight assed approach, it seems like Santana just might hang around Minnesota unless the Dodgers really step up their pursuit or Boston says the are serious about including Ellsbury in a deal with Lestor or Buchholz because the Twins are simply not just going to take the best offer on the table no matter what anyone says.

It has to make sense for them since they have a shot, though a small one, at making a run for things next year based on pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Besides, they can always deal another young pitcher for a young bat like Carlos Quentin to bolster the offense. The Twins have been rather profficient at drafting some pretty solid players and might be better off taking their chances at a playoff run in '07 and taking two picks. Unless things change and better deals do not start shaping up, it is hard to see the Twins trading him at this point in time.

* * *

  • Wagner had a lot more to say outside of the above quote.

    He also says he is not all that happy about how Willie runs his bullpen.

    Wagner said: "In Willie Randolph's bullpen, it's different. He wants guys to be able to go 2 2/3 innings or one-third of an inning or in between. That's how he wants it. But guys just want to know, so they can prepare themselves and be comfortable."

    Wagner said he and Randolph discussed relief roles several times during the season and that, more recently, general manager Omar Minaya and COO Jeff Wilpon subsequently have asked him about roles.

    "I understand what Willie wants -- for a lot of guys to be able to pitch whenever they're needed for as long as he needs them. I'm not sure you can have that. Guys are used to having roles. They'll take the ball because that's what the job is and that's what the manager wants. But the idea is to get them into situations where they can be successful. I mean, you wouldn't ask Carlos Delgado to bunt."


    Overall, I like the fact Wagner has his opinions, but he needs to give Omar some time to shape this team a bit more. There is more to be done and it is hard to pass judgment right now.

  • Anytime a writer offers up advice for Omar, I get scared. However, this was pretty on point.

  • Michael Salfino does a great job rounding up some info on the Mets top outfield prospects and young pitching prospects.

    I still think Humber needs a pass until we see him throw more innings. He was towards the top of all major categories in AAA as we have all mentioned many times and that was coming of elbow surgery. Mulvey however, seems like a John Maine clone with more refined pitches at the same point in their respective careers. I am fully on the Mulvey bandwagon and the Mets better choose carefully and identify their own prospects probability of hitting their ceilings and keep them while dishing off the others if they dabble into the practice of trading human beings.

  • Larry LaRue has an interesting article about Santana coming to the Mariners with a package of Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and Brandon Morrow going back. Now we could debate all day about how questionable it would be for a team in the Mariners position to make that deal when they are seemingly a .500 team and giving up two big bats that are part of their future, but that would be a deal I could get behind. Two first class bats for a team that needs hitting badly and Morrow gives them back a nice solid arm that needs some work. Could one of the most profitable teams in baseball shock the world and get a deal done?

  • Ned Colleti wising up? The Dodgers are my pick to win the west next season if they let all the kids play.

  • The Red Sox and the Rockies are two teams full of good people.

    Considering 37 players pitched or played full- or part-time in 2007, that means a sizable contingent of backstage help, from coaches, trainers, clubhouse staff and Fenway Park [map] employees received partial or full shares. Fourteen partial shares were awarded, while 11 cash awards were voted in.

    The team the Sox swept in the World Series, the Colorado Rockies, voted 44 full shares of $233,505. Mandy Coolbaugh, the widow of Rockies minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh, gets a full share. Mike Coolbaugh was killed when struck by a foul ball during a game in July.

  • I like Dotel and Chacon as possible bullpen options simply because they will not command some insane contracts and will very likely put up the same numbers as Linebrink will for his monstrous contract. Again, not a splashy move, but I do not think the Mets truly need to make a splashy move. Slow and steady is the way to go.
  • Labels: ,

    21 Comments:

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    If I'm the Yankees and all it takes is Hughes, Melky and Mr. Jackson for Johan. I do it. No doubt about it. Anything can happen to Hughes.
    But for the Yankees, trading Cano? fuck, I dunno meng.
    You have to remember, this is for 1 year of Johan Santana.
    The Mets have to trade anyone except Wright and Reyes. I don't care if its Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra, bring on Johan.

    Billy Wagner is an idiot. Its NOvember and he's bitching about the team. Not only is he bitching but he's bitching about losing Tom Glavine. Little does Country Time know that losing Glavine will not hurt. Those "13 wins" are an illusion. Maybe he should have complained last season when we lost "15 wins" from Steve Traschel.

    That's a pretty nice package from the Mariners if true. That's just... balls!

    I like Dotel, his stuff was still nasty last season, I was getting excited watching him pitch and hearing the rumors of the MEts possibly getting him. But the whole injury history, ugh, enough already. And the man cannot pitch under pessure, he's horrible.

    1:58 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    ...'Pelfrey and Milledge deal is just a tick below Hughes and Cabrera because Milledge is head and shoulders going to be a more productive player on the offensive side of things than Melky...

    YES!! THANK YOU MIKE!!

    How the hell is Melky Cabrera? He was a guy in '06that Yankee fans wanted to get rid of!! Now it's, 'Well, ya gotta give up something to get something.' What?? A .280 hitter who bats 8th or 9th? Please.

    I know I'm in the minority, but what package would you rather have: Hughes and Cabrera or Milledge and Maine? I'm sorry, I maybe biased, but the CF with a high ceiling and a proven pitcher, to have at least some resemblance of a competing pitching staff, is what I would take.

    *sigh....well, there's always Haren....

    - Nokes

    8:16 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    ...'Pelfrey and Milledge deal is just a tick below Hughes and Cabrera because Milledge is head and shoulders going to be a more productive player on the offensive side of things than Melky...

    YES!! THANK YOU MIKE!!

    How the hell is Melky Cabrera? He was a guy in '06that Yankee fans wanted to get rid of!! Now it's, 'Well, ya gotta give up something to get something.' What?? A .280 hitter who bats 8th or 9th? Please.

    I know I'm in the minority, but what package would you rather have: Hughes and Cabrera or Milledge and Maine? I'm sorry, I maybe biased, but the CF with a high ceiling and a proven pitcher, to have at least some resemblance of a competing pitching staff, is what I would take.

    *sigh....well, there's always Haren....

    - Nokes

    8:16 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    How about 'old' Yankee Stadium, Hughes and Cabrera for Santana?

    Or...couldn't they just throw in an obscene amount of cash?

    10:57 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    SOMEONE COMPARE THE STATS BETWEEN CABRERA AND MILLEDGE!!

    MILLEDGE IS BETTER AND PLAYED HALF THE SEASON!!

    2:03 PM

     
    Blogger John Peterson said...

    As for the Mets, they would literally have to hand them over their top four prospects and Lastings Milledge.

    I can't help myself. You mean figuratively. To 'hand over' human beings is a figure of speech. Presumably the Mets players would be informed that they had been traded, maybe go to a press conference or meat with their new management, and then go to spring training with the Twins.

    Before you decide to hate me forever: I love your blog and read every post.

    2:15 PM

     
    Blogger John Peterson said...

    meat = meet. Grammar Nazis aren't allowed to misspell words.

    2:16 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    I listed Sickels’ top 20 Mets prospects in response to the “ Gobble Mother Fucking Gobble” blog post and Humber was given a B- which considering his less than spectacular performance at the big league level (albeit a short one) is a good grade. I would like to see Humber given a legitimate shot this year although I suspect he will be traded and do very well for another team. With the combination of Willie and Omar I just don’t see the kid pitchers developing at the big league level and perhaps it’s best to trade them. BTW you have to be pleased with Sickels’ comment “Overall the system is better than it looks at first.... There is some nice pitching in this system…” Unfortunately he also adds “but depth in position players is very weak”

    Chacon came over to the Yankees in 2005 for the proverbial bucket of balls and pitched well until the league figured him out. He basically has only one pitch, his curveball, and I consider him a younger version of Sele without Sele’s previous success. Like Sele, Chacon needs work to be effective and I don’t see him having any measure of success the way Willie seems to haphazardly use his bullpen. I would definitely take a flyer on Dotel.

    The only way the Twins will get the value they deserve for Santana will be to play teams against each other, say the Yankees and the Red Sox. If they fail to do so they will get diminished value.

    Wagner criticizes LM then goes on to effectively bash his GM, manager and some of his fellow players. Closer, know your friggen place.

    3:03 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Yeah Billy Wagner is pretty fucking annoying. If he didn't blow one those 5 save chances he had, INCLUDING that Phillies game, the Mets would have been in October and who knows what could have happened...

    3:08 PM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    How many young players will it take to get santana... if they want 2 OF and 2 pitchers from the Chinese menu we will be offering let them take who they want, we offer a Zito contract and its done, we then sign a free agent OF to platoon w/ Endy in right and if Milledge is not what the twins want we have him in right.
    Even better offer 2 additional pitchers and add garza to the mix.

    3:13 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    WOW!!

    From rotoworld!!

    The Twins are close to landing Delmon Young from the Twins in a six-player deal that would send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon to Tampa Bay.


    The Twins would also pick up Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie, the Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III reports. Young would likely play right field in Minnesota, with Michael Cuddyer moving to left. Nick Punto could replace Bartlett, leaving Harris to take over at second until Alexi Casilla is ready. The Rays would be opening up room in the outfield for Rocco Baldelli or Elijah Dukes. Jonny Gomes' chances of sticking around would also seem to increase.

    Well, there goes Garza. Cant believe the Rays are that down on Young. Amazing.

    - Nokes

    3:18 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Good deal for Young if it come through. That may well free the Twins to employ Carlos Gomez in CF. And keeping Milledge would work out very nicely for the Mets.

    I have to say that I'm all in on Santana though I'm almost as enthused by Haren, but Santana is entering the prime of his career and would totally kill at Shea. Would it be the same at CitiField? For anyone? Who knows. But Santana would give the Mets a super solid foursome to which one could add a surviving former first round pick.

    I think, honestly, that the Mets have more of a chance in this than anyone thinks. And I could easily see the Twins accepting Gomez, Pelfrey, Mulvey & Heilman in a deal for Santana. No one has played the Heilman angle, but he could easily be used as a closer which would free the Twins to trade Joe Nathan. Trading Garza would show that the Twins are thinking multilaterally, the point being to contend while keeping the payroll down.

    How do you crit the Mets for not resigning Glavine? Wags, just shut up! Glavine was never coming back. Now criticizing Willie on pen usage makes sense to even the most uncommon of men. BUT, could I please have tickets to the first fist fight between Lasto & Wags? Promises to be one for the ages.

    Dotel would be a nice pickup, and offering arbitration to Paulie LoDuckhead would be a good idea too. Worst that happens in the latter instance is the Mets bring him back for a year, which would be bearable, though I've warmed to the idea of Estrada in his year before free agency. I'm all in for extra draft picks. especially if we sell the farm.

    As for Joe Blanton, I wouldn't be surprised if Beane tries what he tried last year: to work out a deal for Haren and then try to substitute Blanton on his side. Just say no, Omar; just say NO!!!

    4:23 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Is it really worth liquidating what the mets have left for Santana? You simply need a system to succeed and Boston would NOT have won two world series and the Yankees would not have won any without a solid one. Yes, the Mets have Reyes and Wright contributing already, but you need a steady line and there will be others on the market.

    Nokes...Cabrera is really a non-factor. He's a place holder for a team that lost their centerfielder and no where near a centerpiece.

    Bad news on the Garza deal...but good for the twins. That is one crazy deal though and I cannot believe they dealt Young!

    Or...couldn't they just throw in an obscene amount of cash?

    You cannot give more than a certain amount of cash which is what the commisioner's office put in place to keep rich teams from simply buying players from poor teams.

    John....I still hate you.

    2x4...I'm with you. This season, the Mets 100% need to let a kid take his knocks in the fifth spot and let them get acclimated without having a short leash. Let them get beat up a bit. Not that Humber = Dustin McGowan, but it took McGowan a bit to get into the flow so it stands to reason Humber might take half of the season to get up to speed.

    Steve, I'm still a fan of Fukodome if we trade Milledge and Gomez. Sounds like a good idea since we'll have no one on the horizon except Fernando.

    4:32 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    And I could easily see the Twins accepting Gomez, Pelfrey, Mulvey & Heilman in a deal for Santana.

    Well DG, you are not alone. I'm sure we have all read many times that actual baseball people believe he will land in Shea. I guess it really depends if the Twins are going to take the best deal.

    4:33 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    For what it's worth, all those people who said the Twins wouldnt accept Milledge as part of a deal for Santana because of all the 'baggage' he has.

    Two Words: 'Delmon' and 'Young'.

    - Nokes

    5:12 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I don't recall people harping about his baggage here, no? I think most of us are pro-Milledge and believe it is all overblown. However, the Mets are one step closer to keeping Milledge and I do wonder how much this affects the Twins decision to go for it versus sell off more pieces.

    10:28 PM

     
    Blogger sweep said...

    Scott

    The question is now; Will the Twins move Santana after moving Garza? They will need to replace his 220inns and then Garza's 83 (yeah 83 is all he threw.) But to trade 2 starters seems alot. Means they would demand a front line pitcher and one more to replace Garza.

    The MEts might be lucky in that the YAnkees would have Petite resign soon and the Ynaks would then have to seriously think about giving up Cano. If they don't want to trade Cano now then the impetus will be gone when Pettite comes back.

    Hopefully, the Red Sox would drop out of the race if the Yankees do and we have Santana sitting in our laps.

    Plan 2...get Haren!

    12:31 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Sorry Mike, I meant Anti-Mets media who were complaining about Milledge's 'backage' (i.e. 'Mad Dog')

    - Nokes

    7:37 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Just another thought: There's still an outside shot that the Mets (maybe) would trade Reyes for Santana. The Twins got Brendan Harris in the YOung deal, who can play SS, but is really a utility guy. Technically the Twins still need a SS.....and they say it takes pitching to win so;

    Reyes for Santana

    Milledge, Heilman and Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey for Haren

    Sign Eckstein

    Eckstein, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Alou, Estrada and um....RF?

    BUT...Santana, Haren, Pedro, Maine, Perez.

    Hey Hey!!

    - Nokes

    7:54 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Welcome Brian Stokes to the Mets family.

    10:18 AM

     
    Blogger Anthony said...

    I can't even begin to think of Eckstein replacing Reyes. NO F'ING WAY. If it's having to give up Reyes AND some good prospects AND pay $25 mil per for Santana...pass.

    Let's go after Haren. Save the $20 mil per for the next three years and use all that extra $$$ on more pitching and a future left fielder/first baseman that we will need in 09'.

    10:55 AM

     

    Post a Comment

    << Home