A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Moving Right Along....

So Curt Schilling is off the market. He was only looking for a one year deal which would have suited the Mets just fine and allowed them to move on from Tom Glavine, but that was not necessarily the best move they could have made. I still think the Mets should stay the course and not do anything crazy. Crazy would be classified as getting A-Rod or signing anyone that costs their first round draft pick.

If you like puking in your mouth, read this. The likes of Woody Williams, Dave Roberts, Roberto Hernandez, etc. were Type A free agents and just reinforces how screwed up the old system was. Luckily, that has changed and the Mets should be focusing on anyone that does not classify as a Type A free agent.

AL Rankings
NL Rankings

Of course, under the new collective bargaining agreement, only Type A free agents would net a compensatory pick, Type B free agents only net a sandwich pick for their old team, and Type C free agents no longer exist. Good times! If you are like me and wonder how they come up with theses rankings, just keep reading.

Elias determines the which 'Type' (A, B, or neither) each MLB player is, and not just free agents. They are put in 1 of 5 groups depending which position they appeared in the most games at over the 2 seasons.

Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
Group 3: catchers
Group 4: starters
Group 5: relievers

Here are the stat categories used for each of the five position groups.
1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA


The new system is great. It no longer prohibits teams from picking up finishing pieces to their team that previously cost them first round or second picks. That means the Mets can pick up decent bullpen arms, middling starting pitching, and mediocre catchers and not give anything up.

I still think the Mets do not need to do anything drastic. I think it is a must that The Duque heads into the bullpen and I am warming up to the idea that the Mets should give a long hard look at Carlos Silva. Honestly, I had been really liking the idea of Schilling for no commitment, but he was a Type A free agent and Silva may end up being the innings eater that the Mets need. I am still interested in Hiroki Kuroda and I said I preferred him to the more expensive Silva, but I'm leaning towards the more expensive option at this point partly because of some news and the fact that he might not be all that much cheaper. However, either should give the Mets a capable arm in the rotation, which is what they need and not necessarily and ace.

Outside of that and the bullpen, it is all really minor moves for the Mets. LoDuca, Torrealba, or Ramon Hernandez? Who gives a fuck. It seems like Castillo will be back and that is just fine at this point. Outside of one starter and one reliever (I am resigned to the fact that Humber and/or Pelfrey will be back in AAA), the Mets are just looking to make some minor moves. If the Mets can get Siliva or Kuroda and then add a reliever like Riske, they would not be giving up any picks and would be playing it rather safe.

The starting eight would look like this:
Reyes, Wright, Castillo, Delgado, Alou, Beltran, Milledge, and LoDuca/Torrealba/Hernandez

The rotation would look like this:
Pedro, Ollie, Maine, Silva/Kuroda, and Humber/Pelfrey

The bullpen would look like this:
Wagner, Heilman, Hernandez, Feliciano, Smith, Schoe, and Riske/Affeldt/Linebrink (getting rid of Mota is a must or see if he will pass through waivers)

With the bench looking to be pretty decent again with Gotay, Easley, and Marlon already in the fold, I would be comfortable with that team. Also, that team would have to still be the prohibitive favorites of the entire National League again even after their collapse.

* * *

  • I'm conflicted. Jeter and Palmeiro among others have made the Gold Glove a joke, but Wright and Beltran winning it makes me happy.

    One thing Wright's Gold Glove does do is quell some of the desire to unnecessarily bring in A-Rod. As I have stated before, if the Mets want to open up their wallets for A-Rod, let him move.

  • The Rockies and the Mets might just end up trading catchers.

    The Rockies anticipate they may lose catcher Yorvit Torrealba and their top target to replace him is Met free agent Ramon Castro. Colorado imagines Castro's power being even more overt playing home games in Coors Field rather than Shea Stadium. The Rockies also have strong interest in free agents Paul Lo Duca and Jose Molina as replacements for Torrealba.

  • Again, any big bid on Posada for the Mets would be a mistake. Really, the guy had his best year by far and should only stand to go downhill from his 2004 to 2006 numbers. I'm sorry, this would be a disaster.

    However, if the Mets are just going to help drive up his value and leave a couple of years where the Yankees are sorely overpaying, great. I love driving up the price for the Yankees.

  • There is no reason to turn on Reyes just yet. Everyone was anointing him the golden boy of baseball earlier in the year and now he is chop liver? Give the kid a break. Maybe it was his attitude. Maybe it was not. If it was, he surely had some time to clear his head and get back on track.
  • Labels:

    30 Comments:

    Anonymous gbaked said...

    letting castro go will end up being a huge mistake.

    He should be our starting catcher next year.

    11:22 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    I want this talk about Carols Silva to end immediately. He's a latino Steve Traschel! He gives up too many hits, he doesn't strike anyone out, and he gives up dingers, not a recipe for sucess.

    I view Castro, Lo Duca, and all the other catchers inter-changable at this point. None of them besides Posada provide a big enough improvement that make it worthwhile but Posada wants too much so funk that noise. The one I want is Yadier Molina...

    How about a trade for A.J. Burnett. A dangerous guy to rely on but he doesn't allow many hits and is very good at preventing homeruns, me likes!
    And Omar Vizquel is back with the Giants... ALRIGHT!

    12:33 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Dep here....

    the new system is great in that they reduced the A/B %'s from 30/50% to 20/40%

    that part is wonderful.

    the formulas they use are still retarded to me.

    straight 2 year average? how about projections? or even a heavier weighting on 2007 or something at least. what someone did 2 years ago should not count as much as what he did in the most recent year imo.

    Grouping 2B's & SS's with 3B's? I dont know, that makes no sense to me. Replacement level stats should be taken into account and 3Bs should not be grouped with MIs.

    counting things like PAs and total chances at fielding position as things like HRs and OBP also seems very off to me.

    Arod should not be the 8th ranked AL infielder.

    Jeter (and Cano) should not rank ahead of him. I MEAN COME ON. I tease my friends by saying jeter is a better player, elias shouldnt agree lol

    it is certainly better though, I like the fact that teams are less likely to give up their 1st rounders., dont lose anything for Bs and less supplementals will be given out overall.

    12:45 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I would not be against Castro, but the Mets are not ready for it. At least I do not think that they are.

    I would take the risk on if they had a decent back-up that would be able to hold down the fort. However, I doubt anyone gives him a meaningful contract being he has a spotty track record. Throw on top of that the fact that he will be the cheapest and it sounds like a solid move, no?

    Benny...I didn't even bring up the AJ Burnett crap because JP has to be 'bowled over'. For a guy with an opt-out clause that will be exercised after '08, who is going to give up all that much for him?

    Also, Silva is no stud, but the Mets are looking for innings and decent arm. There are no aces out there. A one year deal would be ideal for the much better pitching market next year, but they do need someone this season and they can replace Pedro's spot with a stud next year.

    I love Pedro, but it is hard to see him coming back if he is looking for anything more than one year contracts.

    Dep...I understand what you are saying, but weighing 2007 and projections more has setbacks to. The two year average is to try and safeguard against injuries and someone getting a stud without giving anything up. As for projections, I think we are far away from using those type things in this fashion.

    I mean, no team would want to pay up for future performance derived by fancy mathematics. That is not how arbitration works and that is not how this will work. I would agree that it makes sense for the Posada's and Schillings of the world, but it will not happen.

    Second basemen getting grouped there is a raw deal and it just means they will never, ever, ever be a Type A free agent. That position has become the weakest position in baseball and it is not even close.

    All in all though, it seems fair and it means more teams will be holding onto their draft picks and would have resulted in a much, much, much better team for the Mets over the past few years.

    10:27 AM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    The Mets at times remind me of the characters in the Wizard of OZ, they need a brain, some heart and some nerve. They are terrible in creating runs, other than Joe Smith there top picks in the draft( Humber and Pelfrey) are still in the need for more minor league seasoning, I hear we have a gentlemans agreement that we will not offer Arbitration with Tommy G.( Atlanta is smiling. For some unknown reason we let WA. get our catcher in a rule 5 pick up, so we need to sign 2 of them now, maybe I have PTSD stemming from losing to the Cards in 06 and seeing Rollins prediction come true but this is the 1st time I have doubts about Omar and his abilities in supplying the talent needed for us to get to the WS.

    10:42 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I like the crux of your offseason plans, although I would like to see one major upgrade - somewhere. My personal take on an upgrade would be signing Silva & Riske like you suggest, adding the lefty Japanese reliever Iwase, and then seeing if you can trade some package of Feliciano/Heilman, Mulvey/Humber, Carp/Evans for Rich Harden. Not sure that's enough - think the A's might want one of our CFs instead of the 1Bs - but otherwise I think that's the package they would like. I really like the upside of Harden protested with guys like Pelfrey and Humber/Mulvey behind him as protection.

    Sure, Silva's an innings eater, but he's young and decent. Moving from the Homerdome to Shea and AL to NL, you very well might be looking at a guy who can put up 200 innings and a high 3 era. That's not chopped liver.

    By the way, finally found concrete confirmation that ARod WILL cost draft picks to sign, and that (therefore) the Mets can offer arbitration to Glavine:

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/11072007/sports/yankees/he_might_be_stay_rod_526384.htm

    - ube

    12:20 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Steve, Omar needs to recover from the last off-season which was a disaster in retrospect when you look at what he sent away via trade. Free agency is easy, but trades are hard and he did great after the '05 season and not so great after the '06 season.

    The jury is still out on Omar.

    Ube...I'm 110% down with Harden, but we've discussed it here before. For Beane to trade him, he would need to bowled over or else the upside is too great to surrender for mediocrity.

    That being said, Heilman, Humber, and Carp is not a bad deal, but a touch short. Maybe if Milledge or Gomez was involved instead of Carp, I think you would have something. There needs to be one blue chip. If healthy, he gets two. Now, one and Heilman/Humber should get it done.

    Sure, Silva's an innings eater, but he's young and decent. Moving from the Homerdome to Shea and AL to NL, you very well might be looking at a guy who can put up 200 innings and a high 3 era. That's not chopped liver.

    I agree with that assessment as well and if you look at his past, he has not been consistent but has done it before.

    You beat me to it. That was going to be in today's post. I can admit when I'm wrong!

    12:33 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    im not mad at the gold gloves this year. everyone on it seems to a respectable choice.

    2:10 PM

     
    Blogger Rickey Henderson said...

    Ditto. But lots of baseball fans seem to be bitching today about Wright and Beltran getting gold gloves. Screw 'em.

    2:52 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    mr met... Yup, I think Beane would want one of the CFs for Harden. I just think you can't trade Milledge (need him in 08) or Gomez (higher upside) very easily in my book. However, I also don't get the feeling the A's will need to bowled over for Harden like they would for Haren or even Blanton. Make their team better and not much more expensive, and I think you have the makings of a deal. Still I think the A's ask for Milledge / Humber, Mets offer Heilman / Humber / Evans, and I'm not sure there's middle ground...

    I wasn't 100% sure about the arbitration either, so I was gald to see that article. Just wanted to make sure I shared it with you.

    You guys hear that Omar loves Cabrera... as a RF? Have to think about it, don't you? Milledge would obviously be part of that deal, plus Pelfrey. Think you have to put one more high ceiling guy in - say Guerra. Would you do Cabrera for Milledge / Pelfrey / Guerra? It would solve the lineup no matter what else we do, but I'd be worried about our pitching. Almost have to sign Silva and at least one reliever then, plus maybe another pitcher. Think you could try to trade Delgado then for some young arms if you wanted. Still, Wright, Reyes, and Cabrerra as core players with Beltran, Alou, and maybe Delgado this year would be damn awesome. I could play C on that team and they'd still score more than enough runs...

    - ube

    3:00 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Beltran surely deserved one. I am not qualified enough to pass judgement on Mr. Wright. Though his fielding % was rather low, he was spectacular at times.

    I'm sure someone else was better, but at least he is a good fielder which as Mr. Neyer pointed out today.

    I agree on holding onto Milledge and Gomez. I am not really keen on any trade that involves a Boras client or a wildcard when you have to give up top tier talent...what little of it the Mets have. Outside of Bedard and Oswalt (who is being said to be off the table), the rest of the guys do not seem like great fits. I love Harden and would love to have him for anyone not named Lastings or Carlos, I cannot see that happening making it way to risky for the Mets, no?

    I think Beane will still need to get something significant back. He will surely not get as much as healthy Harden or Haren, but he will surely need to bring back a B+/A- guy with some nice peripheral players. Haren will cost two A guys in my book. I think it will take less for Harden, but unless he gets a nice haul, Beane is better off holding onto him and shoving him in the bullpen to be a dominating reliever and see if the can build up his value as a closer.

    I would absolutely love Cabrera as a RF and eventual LF and I would give those guys you mentioned away in a heartbeat.

    I think there will be teams than an trump that, but the Marlins are forever looking for center fielders. There are only a few guys I would give all the Mets talent for, but he is certainly one of them.

    The Mets have been quiet so far and I am not sure what to think about that.

    4:11 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Dep here....

    anyone that has a problem with Beltran's gold glove needs to stop watching baseball cuz they just dont get it.

    DW....they may have a case!!!

    I think Zimmerman and Pedro Feliz both could have won it over DW and probly should have.

    but that said, DW winning is not the travesty of say Cap'n Jetes winning it every year. that was a joke.

    Jimmy Rollins winning the gold glove at SS is an absolute joke. He's not even a top 5 NL Defensive SS. Tulowitski deserved that one.

    7:24 PM

     
    Anonymous brian b said...

    Can we get Dontrelle Willis? This kid can hit and I know his numbers have been poor but he is a gamer. I think he would be successful with the mets. He's young, lefty, and can eat innings. GET HIM.

    Even if we have to give up a decent amount if we were to be unable to sign him i find it hard to believe he wouldn't be a class A free agent when we lost him.

    10:46 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    From Metsblog:

    Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports the Phillies have acquired RHP Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett from the Astros in exchange for OF Michael Bourn, RHP Geoff Geary and minor league 3B Mike Costanzo.

    Lidge was 5-3 with 19 saves and a 3.36 ERA in 66 appearances for the Astros in 2007.

    1:04 AM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    From Metsgeek quoting Roto:

    Phillies acquire RHP Brad Lidge and infielder Eric Bruntlett from the Astros for outfielder Michael Bourn, RHP Geoff Geary and third baseman Mike Costanzo.

    We’re not at all impressed with Ed Wade’s first move as Houston’s GM. Bourn could have a long career as a fair regular, but he’s basically another Willy Taveras for the Astros. If Lidge’s arrival in Philadelphia results in Brett Myers’ return to the rotation, this could be a big winner for Pat Gillick. Geary is an average middle reliever and Costanzo’s a long shot to have a career, so this basically boils down to Lidge for Bourn. Lidge is only under control for one more year, so it’s not a huge slam dunk. Still, turning Myers back into a starter gives the Phillies a bigger rotation upgrade than they possibly could have picked up in free agency. Nov. 7 - 10:56 pm et

    1:24 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Wow...that looks like a great deal for Philly, no? Impressive move.

    This is exactly why the Mets shallow system is a problem. That is an underwhelming deal for the Astros if you me and many team should of/could of done better.

    11:38 AM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    Mr. Met - I agree that the Mets shallow system can be a problem, but I don't think this is a good example of it. Houston gave up Lidge for a song. Bourn is OK, but the Mets could have had Lidge if they wanted him. They have three good CF prospects. That is good depth, especially considering Beltran is under contract. Would you have given up one of them for Lidge? He is (potentially) a big boost to any bullpen. The Philies gave up their best prospect for him. All that being said, Lidge could continue to struggle (probable in my opinion), Meyers may have to go back to the bullpen, and, if they don't sign Rowand to the mega contract he wants, they have a medicore CF in 2008.

    11:58 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Dep here...

    Solid deal for the Phils.

    The astros are dumb.

    Luke Scott is a better OF than Bourn. Bourn is a speedster, that's it.

    Scott is a masher and now he's not going to play at all.

    The mets should try to buy low on Luke Scott. Too bad he's lefty and doesnt fit the team very well right now.

    If he was righty, I would be all about seeing if Luke Scott could play 1B at all and have him be our last bench spot.

    12:03 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    The Astros need to clean house and I believe that more than ever. There are so many teams that are just being irresponsible it is ridiculous. Oswalt is now 30 and will NOT be around when/if this team is good again.

    They need to trade Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt and start over. They could get a ton of players back and rebuild much in the same way the Marlins have. The big difference is the dearth of talent in their farm system whereas the Marlins had a solid one.

    I do not know if I would call Scott a masher, but he was one of the best RFers in a group of really bad ones in the NL. If the Mets move Milledge, he would be a great target, but what would he cost? Judging by what Lidge cost, no much.

    12:28 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Dep here....

    maybe masher was too strong a word, but I like his bat a lot. He's got a major league OPS (600+ ABs) in the mid 800's and that's higher than anything Bourn has put up at any level, ever.

    Here's a link to BP's analysis of the Lidge Trade.

    They actually say Houston got the better end of this deal. interesting read

    http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/

    12:38 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Scott's ML Career OPS is .882. that's up there. not that many ABs but still a nice level to be at.

    -Dep

    12:40 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    I like the trade for Philly. Its only one year of Lidge though, no?
    Ehh. If its 2005 Brad Lidge then, there ya go, gooooooooood shit. If not then he's just aggravating.

    Carlos Gomez/Milledge, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese for Rich Harden?
    Is that even something Beane would consider. If your GM of the A's is that something you would consider?
    Niese is a forgotten man. He's a 21 year old lefty who doesn't walk many and strikes out a nice number of guys, should be in AA next season and then of course the Major Leagues would be the next step.

    1:06 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    o0o0o, been reading the Twinkies are interested in getting a CF.
    I would trade either Milledge or Gomez, whichever one for Matt Garza in a fucking heartbeat.

    1:39 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I saw that Nate Silver article, but I am not swayed. Just because they are under control for 11 years does not mean you will get eleven years of usefulness and the Phillies traded two B- prospects at best for potentially devastating closer that allows Meyers to return to the rotation.

    And I still like two draft picks for Lidge if he walks over those two guys the Astros got. Their upside is very limited and you more or less know what you have. I'll take the mystery behind door #2.

    I think that is a good trade Benny considering the questions surrounding him. Of course, I'm a homer trying to think objectively.

    3:12 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    LETS GET MATT GARZA.

    Gomez and Mulvey and whatever else they want not named Milledge.

    -Dep

    4:06 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Milledge is in any deal to Oakland. Beane loves Milledge, he doesnt love Gomez.

    We cant trade Milledge for Harden, we just cant. I want a sure thing if we trade Milledge, and Harden is far from that.

    Brilliant when healthy, but never healthy!

    We could sure use a cheap,productive player on our team the next few years. Milledge is that cheap player.

    -Dep

    4:08 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I agree, I'd take one season of Lidge and 2 first round picks for two B- prospects like Bourne and Constanzo (and Geary, who was serviceable). In a heartbeat. And this works well for the Phils because they essentially get a #2 starter out of this, returning Meyers to the rotation.

    However, the only reason I dodn't think this is a slam dunk is because Lidge is a question mark. He's been inconsistent since Pujols' homer, and has always been better as a setup guy than a closer. Plus, how will he pitch in that CBP bandbox? After a couple of cheap homers, would he lose confidence and start nibbling?

    Finally, the Phils better hope this is the missing piece, because I'm not sure they have much else they can do now. Not a bunch of a good prospects, and good luck if their OF next year is Werth, Victorino, and Burrell.

    -ube

    4:11 PM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    I think the Astros got the better of the Lidge trade. It's kind of interesting, Lidge still throws as hard as ever, but since the Pujols HR, his confidence is shot as a closer. Geary is a decent set up man, and the Astros will control him longer than Lidge. I don't think that the 2 draft picks are a slam dunk, given Lidge's recent performance.

    I like the idea of the Mets signing Silva to replace Glavine, and Torrealba as a catcher. It sounds like the Mets do not want to take a chance on Castro as a starter. What a shame.

    I wonder if Devern Hansack is available from the Red Sox. Also, it looks like the Sox are committed to not signing Timlin, and replacing him with Delcarmen in the 8th inning role. I know that Timlin is 41, but when healthy, he can still get guys out.

    6:44 PM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    Oh yeah, and I think that Brian Fuentes is available. He has nasty stuff, especially his changeup.

    6:48 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I think we all agree here...Gomez for Garza in a heartbeat and if Mulvey needs to go as well, so be it.

    Ube, 100% agree that Lidge is a question mark, but that is also why he did not net one B+/A- prospect. That was factored into the deal, no?

    I think his stuff is still electric and his strikeout rates were great still. His arm is still intact and it was a great gamble for a team desperate for relievers.

    Their outfield is hideous! And their third base situation is ugly as well...They are three team offense at this point.

    Sidd...I like Timlin. Fuentes will be traded I think and I believe he will net a lot being a closer. He was solid last year with the exeption of a really bad week anda half. I would love a stab at him, but I think the asking price will be high.

    7:13 PM

     

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