Predict This!
I don't have to remind everyone that I picked the Indians and the Rockies to make it to the World Series back in April, right? Well, maybe not April, but I did predict them to face off in the World Series when the playoffs started. However, while touting my picks from the start of the playoffs, it is worth nothing how miserably I failed to predict the playoff participants.
NL: Mets; Brewers; Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Braves
AL: Boston; Detroit; Angels
Wild Card: Cleveland
Those were my picks and exactly half of them made it into the playoffs. My insistence on banking against the Yankees bit me in the ass once again and why I ever supported the Braves is beyond me. I completely forgot to incorporate the intangibles of the Phillies which led me to pick the uninspiring Braves over them.
As for the Mets and the Brewers, I stand by those picks. They should have made it into the playoffs but they simply did not hold up their end of the bargain. Next year, I cannot even see my picks changing much with the exception of the Braves not being the Wild Card and the Brewers being switched out for the Cubbies (I'm not discounting the Brewers as the Wild Card just yet though). Of course there is a long off-season to go, but I just see a few teams as having a sufficient amount of a lead in talent to be prohibitive favorites at this point even without knowing what everyone will do.
Jeff (NYC): Girardi or Mattingly? If Torre goes of course...
SportsNation Jim Callis: I'd go with Girardi. Turning over a contender with a lot of expectations to someone who has never managed before, no thanks.
Hmmm...sounds strangely familiar. Of course the Mets in '05 and the Yankees in '08 are extremely different animals, but the Mets were on the verge of contending and handed over the team to a guy who had zero experience and zero credentials. He was best known in the coaching realm for his nickname of Windmill Willie. Guys like that can start on clubs with no real chance at winning and good teams should stick to guys with managerial experience. And yes, minor league experience is just fine as available guys with big league experience that you would actually want heading up your team are not all that plentiful.
Here is some more on Torre so DG can get his daily fill....
The word was mum for Girardi on the topic of him replacing Torre.
Bill Madden says this silence is not good for Torre's aspirations to return back as the Yankee skipper.
...and the second best first baseman of New York during his era chimes in with exactly what we all would have expected him to say.
"It's pretty much a no-win situation for someone coming in here, to be able to live up to expectations and live up to what (Torre did)," Mattingly said in a recent interview. "So as far as someone coming in and taking over this job, it's not necessarily a great situation."
Again, Mattingly could be a massive trainwreck. It really seems like the best thing would to bring in an outsider for at least one year and axe him for Mattingly. Girardi would be a long term solution and not an interim one and probably would never keep the seat warm for Mattingly.
Also, while on the topic of managers, Rob Neyer just threw out an unsubstantiated guess as to some figures that I have been a big proponent of for a while. There are only a few managers who positively impact a team, a majority who do neither good nor bad over the long haul, and some who detract from the overall result. He said it was 10% good, 65% marginal, and 25% bad. I'm sure there is a margin of error there, but I wholeheartedly agree with his observation. We know where I think Willie fits in, but I'm sure Neyer would say he is part of the majority that has virtually no effect on his team's overall performance. However, I think that would be premature until you watch 140+ New York Met games, which I doubt he has.
An Indians-Rockies World Series is just about guaranteed to lead to a headline we just can't wait to read:
"World Series Ratings Lowest Since 1906"
But you know what? Bring it on. Who cares? A Cleveland-Colorado World Series wouldn't be a bad thing for baseball. It would be a great thing for baseball.
We've gone through payroll information all the way back to 1977, which essentially takes us back to the beginnings of the free-agent era. Here's the big news:
We've never had a World Series that matched two teams from the bottom eight in the sport in payroll -- in the entire free-agent era.
In fact, the only other World Series between two teams that were even in the bottom half of the payroll bin was 1991.
That year, the Braves ranked 19th of 26 teams (or seventh from the bottom), according to USA Today. The Twins ranked 15th (or 11th from the bottom).
So if there's anyone at MLB shedding tears over this matchup right now, here's our advice: Stop it. It's a sign of this sport's health, not its demise -- no matter what the ratings might suggest.
Preach on brother Stark!
Labels: predictions
posted by michael o. at 10:03 PM
23 Comments:
if a tree falls in a forest and nobody is around to hear it fall, does it make a sound? If a team wins a WS that no one watches do they really win?
A lab supervisor I used to know (before he was fired) did a statistical analysis on large sets of 20% tolerance carbon resistors and determined the probability of a certain percentage falling within a tighter tolerance. He convinced his superiors to purchase a large amount of 20% tolerance carbon resistors and removing the ones that were 10% tolerance, 5% tolerance, etc. He found to his surprise that the manufacturer was already aware of this and had removed all the tighter tolerance resistors and sold them as such. Likewise Omar figures that if you throw enough shit against the wall you may find a diamond. Unfortunately if all you throw against the wall is pure shit all you will end up with is a whole lot of shit. :)
11:32 PM
That was a round about way to get there, but you got there and I'm with you.
In '06, he was exceedingly lucky. Retreads are a dangerous route and they need to do a better job at getting quality. If they fail to do that again, they will find themselves in a closer race than it all needs to be.
Honestly, I am not worried too much about the rotation if the Mets do what they should do (start either Humber or Pelfrey and let Mulvey or whomever out of Phil or Mike who doesn't start fill in when The Duque goes down). It is the bullpen that is the glaring need for some consistency. The Mets had too many guys that were helpful for a bit and then fell off. Too much uncertainty to hinge your playoff hopes on.
Although, getting another mediocre starter to fill in The Duque's spot and sending him into the bullpen would be optimal. I think he can be uber effective out of the bullpen and the obvious benefit of less chance of him getting injured is there.
The real problem with my plan is depth. The Mets do not like to rely on young guys and never include them as depth...
11:57 PM
Depends on what kind of shit? Depends on the quality. If its shit that has "good stuff" then maybe there's a chance it can be productive.
If its useless shit, a guy like Randy Choate or Jose Mesa then, no one shold be surprised.
If its a group of guys like Troy Percival, BK Kim, Hector Carrasco, who have... and I will use the term very LOOSELY, have "potential" then you sign them.
I want to be manager of the Yankees. Ever seen that movie, Little Big League? It could work...
Tim Marchman is an ass. The Rockies havn't lost a game in a month. Thats it! THat's all you gotta know! A FUCKING MONTH! Last month was the 1st week of classes for me and I've already had mid-terms, that was the last time the Rockies lost a game...
I don't get why a Rockies vs Indians World Series would get such low ratings?
Because dickhead Yankee and Red Sox and Angels and Dodger fans are little bitches who aren't real baseball fans and wouldn't watch baseball if thier teams aren't involved?
12:18 AM
willie was "hung out to dry" by omar and the wilpons for not announcing his return... torre is on tumble dry low right now. at least fred didnt say he would fire silly randolph like the boss did with torre.
torre will make his historic and long awaited return to the mets as our new 1st base coach.
id take manny in a heart beat. he is to hitting what belichik is to coaching.
id sign arod and trade reyes, humber/pelfrey for neshek and santana. never happen though.
joel pineiro.... $6 million a year?! i need to get on the juice and pick up 10 mph on my fast ball
12:29 AM
Very loosely sounds like an understatement. I don't know, Omar could have gotten Speier for a marginally more money than Shoe and that sounds like a big screw up to me. If you are going to do it, do it right. The Schoe move made sense if he was shopping Heilman, but there were better options that were just flat out missed and was left to scramble. He was too busy trading pitchers instead of concentrating on what he should have been bringing in.
The Rockies have not lost since the first week of college? That is some serious shit.
And yes Benny, you hit the nail on the head. But it is not just them, it is every fanbase just about. They just might be more vocal with an above it all attitude.
Torre on first base and making more money than Willie.
Manny will still cost talent and I'm sorry, give me whatever we would have to give up to get him, more cash, and Alou over the guy. If he was free, great. But I doubt he will be unless they are going all out for A-Rod and need every cent picked up.
id sign arod and trade reyes, humber/pelfrey for neshek and santana. never happen though.
A-Rod and Santana? Now that is a splash if I've ever seen one. Sounds like a Yankee move of the early Millenium!
The Mets should just concentrate on not messing up this off-season and draft better with an eye on 2009 when their young pitchers have a year under their belt. The Mets can certainly make the playoffs next season, but they should be careful what they give up and keep an eye on 2009 and beyond.
Trading away the farm for 2008 would be not advisable. Financial flexibility I tell you!
CC, Santana, Sheets, Peavy, Lacky, and Penny are on the market after the '08 season. SOMEONE has to actually hit the market, no?
1:39 AM
Day 16,477,806 of the Joe Torre Death Watch starts with a masive transit strike here in Paris. French Unions have made it clear that Joe must not go and have therefore shut down the morning commute. Never mind that most of the baseball ignorant populace has no idea who Joe Torre is, nor for that matter that Joe Torre died of a longterm illness on day 15,998,202 of the Death Watch (a fact that has been consistently ignored in the American and International media), the continued mood of dread, of mournful anticipation of the great Yankee dynasty's decision continues to have international consequences. When will we see the thin stream of white smoke and the release of doves from the Yankee's Tampa complex informing us that a decision has in fact been made on the fate of dear (departed) Joe?
There is of course a mass transit strike this morning so we woke our kids and managed to get them on the metro early enough to get to the general area of their school. Then we sat in a café where the one stressed out employee (un)lucky enough to have made it to work served us grumbling stragglers their chocolate croissant. No kitchen this morning; chef lost somewhere on the peripherique (outlying highway) or just plain not coming to work because, well, why bother?
France has a very favorable retirement law for public transport personnel - vestiges of a time when shovelling coal was part of their job description - that the new Prez is trying to reform. My liberal foundations tell me that I should support the unions here, but having lived through a nearly month long crippling strike over ten years ago, I have a hard time understanding why the unions cannot accept that their special exception for retirement should not now fall in line with the general populace.
And of course, they would strike in support of Joe Torre IF they in fact actually knew who he is. It's that type of country. Getting our kids home tonight promises to be interesting. I wonder if any of their teachers made it to work?
5:49 AM
I have a hard time understanding why the unions cannot accept that their special exception for retirement should not now fall in line with the general populace.
Because they have preferential treatment now so why should they relinquish that? Further more, like any compensation, it increases over time so they will always want more down the line and more strikes will ensue.
You know what they say, once you go union, you can't go back.
I say just leave the kids at school and give them extra PB&J.
9:09 AM
Hey DG, during the elections who did you vote for? Sarkozy or Royale?
I happened to be in France during the elections and was able to see the debates. Those debates were fuckin' INTENSE! I was very into them and it was like... 4 hours long. I wish the US could do it like them.
I hated Royale she was a dumb, non-sense, bitch that lived in Imagination Land...
10:17 AM
Only vote I get is in the good ole US of A. Not a French citizen but rather a resident. My kids will have double nationality, and I suppose someday I will.
Royale/Sarkozy debates WERE very intense. Royal managed to make herself look presidential but in a very odd way: immediately after the debate, where she was quite feroicious, people thought so and then as her words and behavior took deeper significance, people got very nervous. She lost by less than the polls said she would as there is, was and will be a lot of trepidation when it comes to Nicholas Sarkozy...
... who actually announced that he is getting divorced today. Not a surprise but first time that has happened in office. I actually think more of his wife for divorcing him...
And to answer your question Benny, I don't know if I could have voted for him if I could vote but have the feeling I likely would have. Matter of whether you can pull the trigger I guess. I certainly think that the economic environment has to be reformed but Sarko has an autocratic, assholic side that gets one worried.
But dunno Mike, without unions, worker safety, security and pay would never have gotten past the 19th century. I still believe that they are important at maintaining those advances. What I don't get is how those unions that effect the immediate public welfare - like metro workers, say, or air traffic controllers - can bring the State to a standstill as they mostly have today. There has to be at least a mimimum service not one train every 45 minutes as we had on many metrolines today.
Extra PB&J would have been a good idea, especially since you can actually eat them at a children's school here. The French have no understanding of Peanut Butter. It might as well be Marmite or another one of those weird AustraloBritish kind of things. They don't even sell Reeses Peanut Butter Cups here except in specialist shops. How can you not understand Reeses?
2:29 PM
when do we get our annual dose of sufi girl?
2:31 PM
Well Sarkozy used to be a lawyer, correct? So I guess that's where the assholeness comes from.
The problem I had with Royale is that she kept mentioning things she WANTED to happen but didn't even have a plan on how to reach the goal.
She would say things like "I want the French economy to boom!" and when they ask her how'd she do it, she would basically say "I dunno..."
Which is just, not very smart, atleast have some sort of plan before you make such outlandish remarks.
2:52 PM
Lets go "le Mets"! That's a new one. Thought I'd try to fit into the convo.
Anthony
3:17 PM
Les Mets! And nary a person to talk to them about. Owner of a sushi bar and I go way back and talk about baseball. Used to laugh about Kaz together; told me that Hideki was the one. I'e learned a lot about Japanese baseball. My buddy from Cleveland too, but not too many people to talk about Les Mets with.
Royal claimed that she could use money from one budget on a completely different seperate budget as if they were interchangeable, which they're not. Sarkozy was incredulous, "But you cannot do that Madame." (Always "Madame" which got a bit condescending.) "Yes, I can!" But "Madame, ce n'est pas possible." "I will do it." And of course legally you couldn't. Just bizarre.
3:45 PM
Yeah, Mike, where's Sufi?
3:46 PM
adios joe torre. the torre watch is over. i thought they were gonna put it off til the allstar break next year.
they nickel and dimed him on that contract.
4:28 PM
How freakin lame is it to offer the guy a pay cut figuring he'll not take the offer? Just go ahead and fire the guy if that's what you want. Not like the Spankees are fooling anyone. This strikes me as more of an old style Mets move more than anything. No balls.
Anyway, the Death Watch is over. Long live the Death Watch!
DG
6:03 PM
Sarkozy was incredulous, "But you cannot do that Madame." (Always "Madame" which got a bit condescending.)
I think that was favorite part of the debate! That shit was sooo funny!
I mean it was a 4 hour debate but still there must have been atleast a solid 45 minutes of Sarkozy saying "Madame, Madame, Madame, Madame..." to cut her off and make her realise how stupid she sounded.
Free Madame Royale!!! Let her manage the Yankees!
6:36 PM
boston has been producing great players in their minors. pedroia, ramirez, papelbon, bucholz, delcarmen, elsbury, lester. who know who else is coming from that pipeline
12:13 AM
Ramirez was not produced by the Sox but the Indians!
1:20 AM
I am happy that you were able to inform us of the true reason for the strike. I was under the mistaken impression that Sarkozy had taken away the Muslim conductor’s foot washers.
All “Madame” Royale’s people had to do was spread a rumor she was a lesbian prostitute and she would have won. They could have also said that Sarkozy was a host on Bill O’Reilly’s The Factor.
Torre was given an offer that he would refuse. I hope Torre doesn’t own any race horses.
1:47 AM
This is a typical Yankees fan’s response to Torre not taking the job:
THANK FOOK!!!! I COULDN'T WATCH ANOTHER SEASON OF THE TEA SIPPER...."SWELL GUY" "VETERAN ASSLICKER" THIS MAN HAD 230 MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF PLAYERS AND WAS BEATEN IN KEY MATCHUPS BY: THE MARLINS..THE LOWLY 16 FAN MARLINS...THE ANGELS...TWICE AND THEIR 40 MILLION DOLLAR PAYROLL...THE INJUNS AND ERIC WEDGE..A TEAM THEY BEAT 6-0 THIS SEASON AND HE CHOKED...AND LETS NOT FORGET....UP 3-0 V.S. TERRY FRANCONA....TERRY FRANCONA! JOE LETS BOSTON BREAK THE CURSE....HE SHOULDA BEEN CLIPPED AFTER THE LOSS TO ANAHEIM IN 05' ...ENOUGH WAS FECKN ENOUGH....WE'VE GROWN SOFT WE'VE LOST OUR EDGE...WE'VE BEGAN TO SETTLE "LIKE SCHMETS FANS" WE'RE YANKEE FANS...BLESSED BY THE GRACE OF GORD....WE DON'T SETTLE...THERE IS NO MEDIAN OR MEDIUM....IT'S HEAVEN OR HELL.....THAT'S UNACCEPTABLE .
NOW LEMME PREFACE THIS - BASEBALL IS A CRAP SHOOT IN A SHORT SERIES....KAZ MATSUI OUTTA NOWHERE...PAUL FECKN BYRD?! KENNY 40 YR OLD LOFTON! THERE'S NO RHYME OR REASON....TORRE SHOULDN'T BE CLIPPED FOR THAT....HE'S CLIPPED FOR LETTING IT HAPPEN EVERY FECKN YEAR AND LETTING US GET SOFT...LETTING JETER GET HIT ...LETTING A-ROD GET HIT - LETTING DAVID ORTIZ SH!T IN OUR MOUFS...LETTING MANNY STARE AT HR'S FOR 2 MINUTES....WE'RE SOFT...FLUSHING SOFT....
LEMME ALSO SAY THIS DAY SHOULD HAVE INCLUDED BRIAN THE WEASEL CASHMAN GOING OUT IN A SH!T TRUCK AS WELL....
AND LASTLY....GET DONNIE DARKCLOUD MATTINGLY THE FECK OUTTA MY DUGOUT AND LET HIM GO GREET PEOPLE AT MODELLS AT AUTOGRAPH SESSIONS....NO MATTINGLY.....JUST THINK BRAIN PUDGE LEETCH AS RANGER CAPTAIN...SOFT.
TODAY'S WORD IS SOFT....OUR NEW MANAGER NEEDS TO BE A HARD BASTID.
I'M HAPPY ....VERY HAPPY....AND LETS ALSO NOT FORGET...WE OFFERED JOE A 5 MILL BASE WITH 3 MILL IN INCENTIVES ASW ELL AS A VESTED OPTION. ...FECK JOE TORRE IN THE EAR IF THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH.
This moron is a school teacher in the New Jersey public school system. Notice his use of the Crayola keyboard. Most of the other bloggers were in complete agreement with this idiot. I hope he gets his wish and Cashman is fired and Larry Bowa becomes the new Yankees manager. I’m going to remember this guy the next time I’m about to criticize a fellow Mets fan.
2:56 AM
I like the excessive use of 'we' and 'my'. I had no idea rooting for a particular team makes you superior to others.
8:29 AM
Wouldn't mind if Torre's de facto firing brought Jorge Posada into the Mets' catching situation.
Not one comment on my thought that the way it was done was like an old time Mets move?
In any case, Torre is like 89 years old; he should take a vacation, spend some money.
...
Answer: Josh Beckett
Question: What is a big game pitcher?
...
I don't know what shit Emmanuel Garcia is taking down there in Hawaii, but I want some!:
Emmanuel Garcia went 4-for-4 with a triple and a double Wednesday for Waikiki of the HWL.
Garcia is hitting .391 with a 1/5 K/BB ratio in 46 at-bats in Hawaii. He hit .256/.339/.301 with a 103/63 K/BB ratio in 488 at-bats at Single-A St. Lucie this year. It was definitely a disappointing performance from him, but in his defense, he probably should have spend the year in the Sally League. The 21-year-old has a fair amount of offensive potential for a middle infielder. He's likely to end up at second base, rather than shortstop, because of his arm, but it's not like shortstop is a need in New York anyway.
12:38 PM
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