A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Random Tidbits 10-30-07

The Yankees are again dominating the news with the never ending drama that is the Yankees. A-Rod is out, Torre is out, Mattingly will be out, and Girardi is in.

Some think that A-Rod is the answer for the Mets, but that has to be one of the more preposterous things that I have read. Him on the team does not guarantee anything and could end up being a hindrance when they really need to open their pockets for something that they actually need, which is not a third baseman. We are not talking about a small amount of money or years. Quite the opposite actually.

On the field, A-Rod would give the Mets a third baseman who can hit 50 home runs a year and actually throw the ball to first base. His presence would allow Carlos Beltran to blend into the scenery - which is how he would like it. It would allow Wright - who would move to first - and Reyes to flourish, while not having the pressure to win solely on them.

I am guessing he is alluding to David Wright not being able to throw to first or something. It is not like I have huge problem with Wright moving to first since he would probably be very good there, but the Mets would be better advised to save all of their bullets for pitching. No matter what you think, the Mets do not have unlimited resources and spending that much on one player is just not a smart move. Is he tempting? Of course. The Mets would have a chance to twist the Yankees proverbial nipples, but it would not be the right thing to do.

But, what do I know?

In fact, early indicators suggest the Mets are leaning toward a full metal jacket courtship of the slugger, pending David Wright's blessing.

This is no small obstacle, since ownership is wary of offending Flushing's most marketable and loyal star. "We already have a third baseman," is what one high-ranking official said on Monday. That's the party line -- for now.


  • If I could choose a perfect situation, Randolph leaves with Carter getting the nod as the skipper with Rudy becoming the hitting coach and HoJo moving to the first base coach slot. Of course, that will not happen so not hiring Rudy is the right thing to do.

  • Castillo will probably be back, Alou will be back, and LoDuca is probably gone.

  • Torre is probably headed to LA with Mattingly as his bench coach. Mattingly might have been gone either way, but they never should have entertained him being the manager. Girardi was the right choice from get go and they might have had a chance to keep both on board if they had done the right thing out of the gate.

  • The Braves picked up Jair Jurrjens in what is a solid move for them. If they pick up Glavine, they will have a pretty good rotation and should be able to make some serious noise next season.
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    26 Comments:

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    The Yankees have been in the news for every fucking day in October. It's annoying as hell.
    It's the World Series with men on base for the Rockies and the news is about A-Rod and the Yankees, that was just fucked up. A-Rod and Boras have no respect. That was just rude.

    The media is painting it as if Mattingly was disrespected. I don't get it. He got interviewed, he didn't get it, that's it, its that simple. The Yankees don't owe him anything. Especially considering the fact that he has no managerial experence and Joe Girardi does.
    Pretty intense and kinda cool how Torre is managing the Dodgers now. BTW, this season is when we see what Joe Torre is made of. Its the NL with a team with tons of potential, nothing is gauranteed with them. He also gets reunited with Scott Proctor and use him for 89 games a season again!

    Braves will be alright but they still need to address that bullpen.

    Regarding A-Rod, I would prefer the Mets NOT go after him, its too much of a hassle, too much money, too much commitment and I would just prefer they go after pitching BUT... if he's there, then why not?
    I mean seriously, why the fuck not? He is after all the best player in the game and one of the best in history.
    I can see the Mets trading Delgado for Ramon Hernandez and a bullpen arm or something. Although having Wright at 2nd base with Delgado at 1st base would just be... hacks.

    12:44 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    We have to stay away from ARod at all costs! He is a horrible fit on the Mets - he plays the wrong position, we need pitching, he can't handle the NY press, he's struggled in the clubhouse in both Texas and the Bronx, and he's NEVER WON.

    And, oh yeah, he'll be 33 next year and looking for 10 years $300mil by all accounts. Maybe - maybe - he'll be worth something kinda in the neighborhood of $30M for a year or two (but I doubt it). But then, his contract will become an absolute lead weight around this franchise's neck. Paying him $30 mil in 2014 when he is 40 is nuts. People still b**ch about Beltran's contract, and he makes HALF of this a year.

    Everyone seems to think that he'll just keep hitting, and I have no idea why. Sure Bonds did, but we all know he was juiced. What's to say he's not hurt all the time like Moises Alou? Besides, infielders don't age well. Keep this in mind - no shortstop in baseball history, and only one third baseman, have ever hit 100 HRs after their 32 birthday. I'm sure ARod will have more, but how many more? Not nearly as many as most people seem to assume just because Boras says so.

    If the Mets sign ARod, it tells me they are more interested in selling tickets than winning. You think this contract is a good idea??? Go ask Tom Hicks what he thinks. He couldn't wait to get rid of him so much that he PAID the Yankees to take him off his hands. And ARod was certainly a better player making less in 2003 than he will be in 2013. Go ask the Yankees - who refuse to even bid on ARod unless Texas chips in 7 mil a year.

    Please, please, say no to this insanity!

    -ube

    3:07 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I do not really think it is a big deal that they announced it during the playoffs. Did it detract from them? No.

    Benny....great call on the reunion of Proctor and Torre. I'm sure Scottie just shit in his pants. At least he is not the #1 set-up guy over there so maybe...just maybe he will survive.

    That is an interesting trade...Hernandez for Delgado. That actually makes sense if the Mets can fill in first base, but I'm still not sure A-Rod is the guy to plug into the team shifting Wright to first.

    Ube...I am with you. It's a lot of money over a long period of time. I actually thought he was 31 one this year. Not sure why a year would make a difference, but he will be 33 next July in his first year of a loooong contract. Personally, I think he tops out at eight years anyway, but that is still a long time.

    9:48 AM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    The reason I don't think the money is such a deterent in signing other players is because baseball is fucking healthy as hell. It is VERY close to generating revenues on the level the NFL has reached. The gap has become very small.
    If I'm not mistaken the number has reached $6 billion. There's plenty of money for everyone especially a big market like the Mets and the 2nd highest valued franchise in the entire MLB.
    If A-Rod signs with the Mets I think it means a low cost catcher but I'm positive top notch pitching will not be ignored.
    And Omar said this yesterday while on the topic of A-Rod:
    “First and foremost we want to address pitching. Championships are won with pitching; we saw that with the Red Sox.”
    So don't get too nervous, Omar has his priorities straight and knows what's important.

    I think its pretty cool how Curt Schilling blogs. He lists the Mets as a team he'd consider coming to at his blog. I think he'd the perfect fit for replacing Glavine. He's actually still good!
    http://38pitches.com/2007/10/30/free-agency-weird/#more-110

    According to everyone, Paul Lo Duca is gone as gone could be and I think I'm pretty happy about it.

    10:51 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Great blog as always Mike. I'm an avid reader, I must try to post more here. so here we go.

    Thank you for providing a voice of sanity on Arod. its amazing how many met fans would dissolve 50% of our whole team just to get him. scary met fans. scary.

    Re: Delgado for Hernandez....Wouldn't Baltimore look at trading Ramon as a salary clearing move? Why would they take on Delgado's $12M for 2008 + the $4M buyout?
    How much cash would the mets have to send in that deal to make it work? $8M? more? I dont know. I was just under the assumption Baltimore wanted to clear salary and that would be the main reason they move Hernandez this offseason

    -Dep

    11:06 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Yes Benny...it is closer, but football does it in 1/10 of the games.

    I think it is a good thing that they have closed on overall revenue and baseball teams are getting more valuable, but that does not mean the Mets can give 25% of their payroll to one guy. 25%!!! That is a lot of cash. It would be more towards 12% for the Yankees and it just does not make sense and it is a lot of years at the back end of 30 which could be disastrous.

    In A-Rod's defense, he certainly is a guy that I believe can be healthy and playing well until 41, but as ube pointed out, it is not the norm. Yes, A-Rod is not your normal player, but there were a lot of HoF 3b in the history of this game that were not able to do those things as well.

    Could the Mets afford it? Probably. Will it handcuff them in the future? As good as Manny was for the Red Sox, they wanted to dump his salary and his is not near what A-Rod's will be. The history for contracts of this ilk are not good.

    As a last resort, a one year deal for Schilling is not a bad idea. I've been tossing that around in my head, but Hernandez still needs to head to the pen.

    Dep...the Mets would presumably have to pay for the buyout and it helps Baltimore by giving them offense. Delgado in that park could put up 30 homers in his sleep and it depends on if you think that Delgado's struggles are a thing of the past and wrist related.

    Hernandez is a salary dump in the sense they do not want to pay that production that much money. But if they trade Tejada, Delgado gives them at least one legit bat that can produce with no long term commitment. Of course, the Mets would only need to trade him if they got A-Rod, which I prefer they not do.

    11:08 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Just an aside...Rob Neyer has continually said that A-Rod is worth $30 mil to only one team. I think he is right. The Yankees pulled in $80m more than the Mets last season and the Mets missed the playoffs this year presumably giving them less income than in '06.

    A-Rod's salary would cost 13% to 14% of their TOTAL revenue. Not payroll, total revenue. When they made it to game seven of the playoffs, they pocketed $24.4 million. A-Rod would have put them in the red if he was there for one of their most profitably years.

    Now, he might have helped them make it to the WS and paid for himself, but is it really any guarantee? The Mets have yet to leverage the same type of cash that the Yankees have and make as much as the Dodgers and Cubs and less than the Red Sox.

    The idea that the Mets could simply throw that type of cash at anyone and be OK is just not right. Again, it is very tempting for obvious reasons, but I think it is slippery slope and especially slippery if he does not bang 45+ homers a year with 120+ RBIs?

    His 2006 was awesome. However, was it any different than what Wright is capable of? He has the ability to put up more, but who knows what will happen and he will still be on the backside of his career for the majority of the contract.

    As stated by ube, he might be 'worth' that for a year or two while he is putting up 50+ homers, but how long can he doe that. I just get the sense that this will be a noose around the Mets neck unless Wilpon uses some special fund that is not calculated in their budget. If he wants to pay him over and above their normal budget, fine. But the Mets simply cannot just spend...spend...spend.

    11:17 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    ...and that is not to say he will not put up great numbers, but over the course of the next ten years, I am pretty sure David Wright in his prime can put up some numbers that measure up to A-Rod's after 35 numbers with less in the HR category.

    It certainly stands to reason the Mets worry about finding better fits than having a big shakeup.

    11:20 AM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    I am actually surprised at the fact that I am not just outright dismissing the feasibility and sanity of getting A-Rod for something like 8 years and $240 million. I go back and forth on it, from pro to con.

    Pro: The positional player core of this team would be incredible for the next 3 or 4 years: in your prime Beltran and Rodriguez, nearing prime Reyes and Wright, and the developing Milledge.

    Con: The distractions that A-Rod would bring would be immense and painful. And this is supposed to be Wright and Reyes' team.

    Pro: The only risk inherent with acquiring Rodriguez is a financial one. It's only money. The Mets are not losing any prospects in this deal (except for a draft pick).

    Con: Rodriguez would be 38, 39 and 40 years old in the last 3 years of an 8 year contract. He won't be worth $30 million in those final years, it's almost assuredly so.

    Pro: Although it's hard to quantify the exact dollar amount, with SNY and a new stadium, A-Rod does pay back some of his salary with increasing these revenue streams. Although it is nearly impossible to quantify this. But there is certainly a positive financial impact.

    Con: The Wilpons will probably hold back from signing pitching because they will not want to take up the payroll too much.

    I think I would prefer that the Mets stay away from A-Rod and build a little smarter. But the idea of throwing a bunch of money at him and re-leveraging the franchise financially is tempting, I must say.

    2:26 PM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    I mean, doesn't it seem somewhat tempting to sign A-Rod, and then move Delgado to fill another need?

    I think you can compare what the Yankees got for Sheffield last offseason to what the Mets might get for Delgado. Sure, Delgado's OPS+ in 2007 was only 103, but Sheffield's OPS+ was only 107 in 2006, and both did it in injury plagued seasons. Delgado is also 3 years younger than what Sheffield was when he was traded.

    Wouldn't Anaheim salivate to get Delgado to hit behind Vlad? Or Baltimore for Ramon Hernandez as you suggested?

    I'm tempted, Mike. Talk me out of it.

    2:36 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    I had to share this link with everyone.
    http://tastybooze.com/2007/04/the-origin-of-boggs/
    Amazing, truely amazing.

    You guys think that Boras can get 10 years? Or this the 10 years like with Beltran?

    Also, according ot rotoworld, Mike Cameron busted for most likely greenies. 25 game suspension, sucks for him as I feel amphetamines are not that serious. I guess Killa Cam is gonna have to switch to coffee and Red Bull or something. Somebody better get him a Starbucks gift card for christmas.

    3:00 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Danny;

    Sorry, I have to disagree with some of your assumptions. I think Boras is so good at what he does that we take some of his statements as fact, which they rarely are. Specifically:

    - ARod will in no way pay back his contract. The Mets already have a regional network, and if the team is even decent CitiField will be filled for the next few years. Frankly, in this particular case I'm not sure ARod will provide one extra cent of revenue to the Mets, never mind the ridiculous assumption Boras makes that he will generate $40-50M.

    - As for the positional core being set, that's exactly what Texas thought when they signged him and added him to Teixera, Blalock, and Young. Needless to say it didn't work out that way.

    I think we really need to look at the Texas situation a bit more. Here was a team with really good young hitters, mostly on the infield, where ARod was a perfect positional fit. They signed him and what happened: Pudge immediately walked in asked to renegotiate his contract, the young players couldn't get along with ARod, the team GOT WORSE, they never had the money to sign pitching, and ARod brought almost NO new revenue to the team after the first year or two. It got so bad the Rangers paid over $20M to GET RID of him.

    How is that Rangers situation different than the Mets? Only in ways that make it worse. ARod is a bad positional fit. He will cost more money, and be a worse player than when Texas signed him. Oh, and he hates NY. How in the world will this make us better???

    Oh, and as a Met fan who lives in SF, and watched Bonds drag down & hold the Giants hostage the last few years, let me tell you his possible chase for the HR record is anything but a good thing.

    Also, rightly or wrongly, I suspect we couldn't get anywhere near for Delgado what the Yankees got Sheffield since Sheffield was "a proven winner." (Insert sarcasm here). I suspect our haul would be much more similar to what the Phils got for Abreu, which is to say nothing.

    -ube

    3:18 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Ube, i think getting along is not what fucked the Rangers over it was the lack of quality pitching. I know mentioned it but instead of giving other reasons, I think that's the only reason.
    With that said, I feel he shouldn't be a priority but it does not hurt to look into it.

    I dunno, the money is something that the Mets say shouldn't be a problem. I mean the reason the Yankees say he's a problem is because well, thier payroll is $220 million. That's about $110 million more than the Mets.
    Whatever. As I said before he shouldn't be a priority but he should be looked into...

    3:25 PM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    Ube -

    I never said that A-Rod would pay back his contract. But he will increase revenue to some extent, certainly not $30 million per year, but to some extent. It's just impossible to quantify how much.

    Young is pretty overrated and Blalock fell flat on his face, so I wouldn't compare the cores.

    A-Rod didn't add revenue to the Rangers because the Rangers didn't win and they didn't have their own cable network. A-Rod would absolutely positively impact the Mets in a positive fashion in both of these ways.

    The Mets would get more for Delgado then the Phillies got for Abreu because the financial obligations are not nearly commensurate. Abreu was still a year and a half away from his option and it was for bigger money than Delgado.

    3:30 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Danny....1st off. I do not think A-Rod comes at cost of a draft pick. He is a free agent and the Yankees have every right to go after him without any restrictions or time constraints either. Same thing when Beltran leaves....the Mets do not get any draft picks because they are not allowed to offer him arbitration.

    Benny...Boras starts at ten, but 'settles' on eight. It is usually what he does, no? He should give the Giants a bit of a discount if they truly want him after ripping them off on Zito.

    Delgado is a salary dump at this point or a trade of salaries as in a Ramon Hernandez situation, but this should not get done unless the Mets get A-Rod, which I would prefer they not do. I guess he can get a B level pitching prospect for someone that thought he was the last piece or something for a playoff run, but he's coming off a bad year, with and injury, and on the wrong side of 35...He'll be 37 this year, right?

    4:58 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    The Yankees domination of the back pages is a G-d sent for the Mets. After the way the season ended low key is definitely preferable

    The Mets have intelligent baseball people as well as financial wizards and I’m sure the decision on A-Rod whether it is pro or con will be the correct one for the team. I also believe the incredible meltdown of the team will have a major impact on the decision. Remember the Mets are in the entertainment business.

    Based upon what I’ve read Rudy is one hitting coach that makes a major difference. Winning will guarantee Randolph will keep his position so it makes sense to bring in someone that will help you win.

    The A-Rod announcement was the height of a boring WS. It was as if the Red Sox toyed with the Rockies. It was akin to a major league team playing the best team in the Sally League. BTW in addition to the Red Sox pitching they do have Manny and Ortiz in that lineup. The early to mid ‘70’s Reds proved that an outstanding lineup coupled with decent pitching will have better success over the long season than a team with outstanding starting pitching but very little else (the Mets).

    With the hiring of Girardi at least we have one manager in town that uses his brains and some of the newer tools and not his “gut.”

    9:30 PM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    eveyone is mad at arod and anti arod. does he not have the right to FA like jorge and mariano? or they dont wanna be yankees? i cant stand yankee fans... effing idiots

    in terms of arod... im not a fan of moving players around but you can do this for arod. i dont wanna see him here for 30 million when he's 38 or 39.

    its gotta make sense but it wont for whoever signs him.

    please no jorge posada. id take ramon hernandez off the orioles hands and pay 90% of delgados salary next year.

    nonetheless, the plan for next year should include finding 400 innings of 3.60 pitching. you can find that in haren (peace out lastings) and someone else. we gotta sign everyone with an arm and run them out there for the pen. we have struck gold with scrubs. thats what we need to focus on. then we can replace delgado and loduca

    10:18 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I think it was a smart thing from a business standpoint to cash in on another uber contract vs. being 35 when he is up for it. A-Rod did the right thing if he gets $25 million over eight years if you ask me.

    I'm all for trading for pitching, but that is the hottest commodity these days. Getting a good pitcher takes a team that is overflowing with pitching (i.e. basically no one). There are guys who should be dealt from a baseball and long term standpoint, but every GM is afraid of making the wrong deal these days.

    10:52 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    A better way of comparing A-Rod’s salary to other players is via a ratio. If you search salary differential over the years, even in the days of the “reserve clause” you will find the ratio of a super star versus the average player to be large. However, as a point of reference, consider the ratio of Babe Ruth’s salary to Lou Gehrig’s. The Babe earned $80,000 in 1931 (an enormous salary during the depression) while Gehrig earned $25,000. That’s a ratio over 3 to 1 and Gehrig was far from mediocre. If Adam Dunn is worth $13 million then A-Rod is worth $30 million.

    1:43 AM

     
    Anonymous gbaked said...

    mestra - gotta disagree with you big time on the arod issue.

    ARod on the mets makes sooo much sense.

    Just look at this:

    reyes
    milledge
    wright
    arod
    beltran

    that will be our top 5 for the next 6 - 10 years.

    Not only that... here are a host of other great reasons:

    great players dont file for free agency anymore.
    we have a weak farm.
    Wright could become a gold globe 1b.
    he grew up a met fan.
    we would get to watch a guy hit 50 hr for us, not the yankees.

    on top of that, I think he can handle the media just fine. I mean, they blasted his mistress all over the front page, made fun of his wife, mocked him, and all he did was go out and have one of the best baseball seasons of all time.

    He has never won? correct me if I am wrong but didnt he put the yankees on his back and take them to the postseason this year? And texas sucked.

    Seriously guys, the best player of our generation is available. He was one of us growing up (which explains all the insecurities).

    10:56 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    gbaked - except for the fact that Arod will be 39 in 6 years (never mind 10) and likely a mediocre ballplayer making a ridiculous amount, dragging our team down.

    He's not a winner. Every SINGLE team he has went to has gotten WORSE when he arrived and BETTER when's he left. Check it out, it's a fact.

    This is baseball, you don't win with one star and a bunch of serfs. No baseball team has EVER won a world series where one player has made more than 15% of the payroll. ARod would likely make at least 20%.

    If you think ARod handles the media well, I don't even know what to say, really. He's a circus, and blames "not feeling comfortable" on his below average years in 05 and 06.

    But really, I just keep going back to the Texas thing. He and Boras snowed Texas into giving him a ridiculous contract 7 years ago, thinking they would build their team around him. That turned out so well THEY PAID ANOTHER TEAM TO TAKE HIM. Now, he's 7 years older, wants more money, and comes with more baggage - and some Met fans are running to make the exact same mistake. I don't get it. I mean really, how is this going to turn out any better for the Mets than it did for the Rangers. Shame on us if we make the same mistake they made...

    -ube

    1:13 AM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    This is baseball, you don't win with one star and a bunch of serfs.

    But the Mets won't be full of serfs...

    Every SINGLE team he has went to has gotten WORSE when he arrived and BETTER when's he left. Check it out, it's a fact.

    THe Yankees would not have made the playoffs this ear without A-Rod, you know it and everyone else does. Without him in 2008, without his offense to cover up thier shitty pitching, we'll see how the Yankees do in 2008, I have a feeling they're going to be worse. It'll alter and change that "fact".

    12:56 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Arod DOES cost a draft pick to the team that signs him.

    -Dep

    1:39 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Arod DOES cost a draft pick to the team that signs him.

    How so? How the Yankees offer him arbitration? Just like Glavine turned down his option, the Mets cannot offer him arb...By A-Rod opting out, the Yankees can do nothing and do not have any 15 day negotiating rights...correct me if I'm wrong please and document my wrongness.

    1:54 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    No baseball team has EVER won a world series where one player has made more than 15% of the payroll. ARod would likely make at least 20%.

    The 1932 Yankees won the WS and Ruth earned 75,000. He earned approximately 3X his nearest teammate’s salary.

    12:48 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Mr. Met - I don't know about ARod specifically, but in general you absolutely can offer arbitration to someone who turns down an option. They are no different than any other free agent. Everything I've seen says the Mets will get compensation for Glavine *if* they offer him arbitration:

    Metblog.com
    http://www.metsblog.com/2007/10/30/emailbag-free-agent-compensation-2/

    Also, according to Wikipedia, there are only four requirements for arbitration, none of which involve declined options
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions

    Two-by-four - Gammons said that Elias has run the numbers all the way back to 1975 and never found any team. After that, there aren't enough reliable salary numbers to determine it. And if you have to go all the way back to Babe Ruth in 1932, I'm thinking that might be the exception that proves the rule anyway.

    Benny - Sure, if you take ARod off the Yanks (and give them nothing back) they probably don't make the playoffs. The same can be said for Rivera, Pettite, Cano, Jeter, Posada, Wang, and probably Joba. Doesn't mean they are worth 50% more than any other player in the game, which is what ARod is asking for.

    And I think 6 years of evidence of teams being better without ARod is a huge warning sign - it's certainly more important to me than what I think the Yankees will do next year.

    Look, I'm not against signing ARod at all - though I do think there are serious warning signs around him. I just think Boras's assertions that this guy is worth 50% more than any other player in the league are utterly ridiculous. I'd take ARod in a heartbeat for a 6 yr / $150M if he'll play 1B. But no way in heck Boras or ARod will even consider that, so the Mets best option is to walk away.

    - ube

    9:25 PM

     

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