Hypothetically Speaking
Let us say for a moment that the Mets needed to include Gomez, F-Mart, Mulvey, and Pelfrey to compete with the packages of the Red Sox and Yankees for Johan. Of course I have no idea if that is truly even and offer, but Jayson Stark mentioned that the Twins had asked for all of them in addition to Humber. You cannot blame them as you have to start somewhere and leave room for the Mets to negotiate down.
Would that be a remotely intelligent move? I have a hard time believing so. As stated yesterday, Oliver Perez is set to hit the market with The Duque and Pedro. Of course they can all come back, but it would cost close over $35 million to do so on top of the $20 million they are paying Johan and the raise John Maine would be due to get.
Then, you would have to look at the depth of the system and gag just a bit with a complete dearth of talent at the top of the system with the exception of Phil Humber able to contribute meaningfully at the big league level. If you are counting on the three picks of the '08 draft that have not even been picked yet to bolster this team's future, that might be a little optimistic. Those picks need to be a supplement of players already in the system.
Deolis Guerra, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, Phil Humber, Brant Rustich, Scott Moviel, Nate Vinyard, Robert Parnell, and a few others are still around, but that would unequivocally be one of the worst three systems in baseball. Three picks, even if they all pan out and the Mets are able to score top tier talent that dropped a bit are not going to change that much. Also, the only meaningful players set to step on a big league diamond before 2010/2011 will be Humber and a few relievers.
Not that I enjoy adding more caveats, but the likelihood of those guys stepping on the field being impact players their first season or two is extremely unlikely which pushes back the time line a bit for them to be a vital part of this team. Of course, that is all predicated upon these guys, who have so far to go, working out. It is scary out there on the free agent market and with more teams having cash and letting less and less talent go, you simply need to be able grow some players. By the time Reyes and Wright are done being cheap, the Mets are set to virtually have no cheap help from within barring anything big going on and they will have plenty of holes to fill.
If you are are not developing, you are not winning. I want Johan and who wouldn't? But it can certainly be argued that the Mets are not in as dire of a need as many think with Pedro, Ollie, and Maine leading the team. They give the Mets a shot to win in a short series and provide a solid foundation for the pitching staff in '08. This 'get Johan at all costs' idea does not resonate all that well with me and the Mets are not quite at the point where they can trade five top prospects for one player, but should strive to get to that point with a few good drafts, holding onto their top picks, and paying out over slot.
Johan makes the Mets favorites, but it is a big gamble and big loss if they do not win it all. It is tough to pass up on a deal like this, but if Omar truly cares about 2009 and beyond, he better tread lightly. I am not saying there is no package the Mets can put together that makes sense both now and long term, but the ones we have heard bandied about that it will take to land Johan are certainly not a positive thing for this team after 2008.
I was not all that huge of a fan of the Garland move, but Williams has put together an interesting off-season if nothing else and definitely made some aggressive moves to cover some holes. At this point, Beane absolutely needs to just rid the team of Blanton and whatever other tradeable commodities there are, but you have to be ok with his current haul so far if you are an Oakland fan. It is never easy to see your team rebuild, but doing it intelligently should cushion the blow.
Labels: 2008 game-plan, 2008 off-season, johan santana, prospects, rotation
posted by michael o. at 1:44 AM
42 Comments:
Regarding Johan, I'm getting to the point where I feel like saying "fuck it" and pull the trigger.
3 picks in this draft as many as 7 picks in next year's draft if Oliver Perez, Johan, and Pedro sign elsewhere.
Atleast all those players arne't being traded for a mediocre piece of shit and its Johan...
The White SOx sure are wildcards this season, who know show they pan out during the season. They can go either way. They can be really good or very mediocre. I love Swisher though, he's great.
Sucks for the A's fans though, we great in that community.
3:56 AM
Have to admit that I was on the "trade for Johan at all costs" bandwagon. It comes from reading too many doom and gloom articles about Omar's lame off season. Your post puts things back in perspective, though. Are we over valuing our prospects? Maybe, but you are right - a healthy farm system means winning long term. Trading everything for Johan destroys the farm system and could mean another string of embarrassingly bad years again. Three picks this year could help transform a mediocre farm system into a decent one. I'd like to see Ollie and Heilman inked to extensions before the season starts, pick up an insurance starter like Livan, and move forward. This is still a pretty good offensive lineup and I expect Delgado to put up 30/100 this year. Combine that with steady production from Beltran, Wright, and Reyes and I think that can compete with anyone. The 2007 slide is over and won't happen again.
Mr. Met - Thanks for doing this blog, man. I know it's gotta be a pain sometimes but you are a decent writer with a great sense of humor and I appreciate it. And the comments section, unlike other blogs, is an added bonus.
Happy New Year to all. Go Mets!
7:31 AM
I don't think Santana is worth the top two positional player and top two pitching prospects the Mets have (or any organization has). First, that's too many eggs in one basket. An injury to Santana and the Mets are in troube. Plus, Pedro and ElDuque are both injury prone and the only depth would be Humber, who may not be ready. Then 2009 and beyond don't look so good if all four top prospects are traded now. I can see giving up one of the two OFs and one of the top pitchers and two other guys a few years away from being ready but beyond that I would prefer to see focus placed on extending Perez and looking to trade for a 24-26 year old good pitcher that could develop into an ace or solid #2. I really wanted Garza but talk about guys like Ian Snell being avaiable is worth checking on. Another option is to see is Huston Street is available and at what cost. Add him to the bullpen and leave the rotation as is and look for Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey to continue to improve and grow into solid ML pitchers. A pen with Wagner, Heilman, Sanchez, and Street would be silly and paired with Pedro, Perez, Maine, ElDuque, and Pelfrey (or Colon/Hernandez/any short term guy) would be a tuff staff to beat. I'd prefer that to emptying the farm system for one pitcher.
9:02 AM
Why is everyone so worried about losing El Duque next season? He's, like, 45 and injury prone. He might be best suited for the bull-pen, which leads me to this...
...if we dont pull the trigger on Johan, and Oakland is trading off everyone and their mother we can offer some package but include Heilman. Say F-Mart, Mulvey and Heilman for Blanton. We move The Duque into the set-up roll. Then the rotation has potentially 3 200+ innings guys in Blanton, Perez and Maine. I highly doubt Heilman would ever sign an extension with this team because he wants to start and this team will never let him do that. So, best to trade him now before he goes away for nothing (unless we get a draft pick out of him, but I'm not sure we would).
- Nokes
9:11 AM
Nokes - I am not worried at all about losing ElDuque, but think the Mets cannot count on a full season in the rotation from him. If the Mets add a starter and move ElDuque into the pen when he begins to wear down and then brings Pelfrey up to replace him that is perfectly logical. I still think that a move to get someone with more upside than Blanton is preferred. I think F-Mart, Mulvey, and Heilman is alot for Blanton.
9:28 AM
I agree O&BB, but it's Beane.
Look at what he's gotten so far for Haren and Swisher. Two teams were willing to trade off 9 prospects to Oakland for 2 damn good players. In the D'Backs case they traded, what, 3 of their Top 6 prospects?
I dont WANT to trade F-Mart, but if he's the key in a deal then so be it. Mulvey might be good, but projects at best as a #4 or #5? That's not bad, but he wont help us for another year/year+. Getting Blanton eats the innings. Plus with 3 picks in next years draft maybe one would fill the potential of trading F-Mart.
- Nokes
9:49 AM
If we offer Fernando Martinez, Kevin Mulvey and Aaron Heilman for Joe Blanton, I am moving to Norway.
10:29 AM
Mike I tend to agree with you (perhaps that’s why I post here) but the vast majority of the media types and Mets fans want the Santana trade completed in a damn the horses, full speed ahead approach. The media types don’t really care about the Mets and are only seeking a major story. Trading for Santana falls into that category and if in the future it all falls apart the media can write about how stupid and short sighted it was for the Mets to deplete their system in the Santana trade. It’s similar to Mike Francesca calling for the football Giants to go all out against the Patriots rather than treating the game as a tune-up for their first playoff game. He made it clear, in no uncertain terms, just how important the Patriots game was and if the Giants suffer injuries in what is really a meaningless game so be it. Now he wonders whether the Giants can absorb the injuries to four players and whether they can recapture the energy level they left on the field in the Pats game.
Young Mets fans have never seen the team with a true ace and old Mets fans want another ring before they die so they want the damn trade no matter what it costs the Mets. Trying to reason with these people is useless as they turn a deaf ear to whatever facts you throw at them. On the internet emotion and opinion supersede facts. They believe trading for Santana guarantees a ring.
10:39 AM
Benny...but those picks are not even going to help all that quickly. Even if you get a top tier college starter, he'll take what? Three years to go through the minors and take some lumps at the big league level at best? This is a dangerous thing to do and could set the Mets further back than it did forward. At some point it is too much and the farm for Johan is a mistake.
I know Johan is the best pitcher, but still. The Mets could be in big trouble with no help at all out there and it boost their payroll on picking up bad to mediocre players and then you'll be complaining about those mediocre pieces of shit on the team.
RE: White Sox...I agree man. People are bashing Williams as if it is foregone conclusion he'll finish in third. I think they have a shot this year if things fall right. I think they are a decent team at this point and I think Quentin is a lot better than most think. Certainly better than Arizona thinks.
metsfanincincy...A string of embarassingly bad years is right. We'll have to go get the Mo Vaughn's and Jeromy Burnitz's of the world. No esta bien.
I would love to extend Heilman, but he wants to start and would never do that. He'll get a shot to start somewhere so the Mets will have to either comply and let him get a shot before he jets or they milk him for while he is here and let him walk and get a nice compensation pick from him leaving. See how this works? You develop good players and they walk and you get nice picks for them! A great concept.
I'm down with the Livan move. We know that and I agree with you rosey outlook. The Mets are not dominant, but they will be in the mix for sure.
A decent writer? C'mon man...I think we know I'm closer to being bad, but I try on the content.
O&BB... I can see giving up one of the two OFs and one of the top pitchers and two other guys a few years away from being ready I agree, but I'm starting to really question trading F-Mart. K-Law has been harping about him and saying he would rather have him than Hughes. I think we hold onto him at all costs...I think Guerra would be an acceptable casuality for sure. Gomez, Pelfrey, Guerra, Carp, and Rustich???? Take it or leave it.
I wonder what Street would cost given some of the ailments he has had.
Nokes...I agree The Duque should be in the pen, but I think Omar will start him which means he needs to replaced. It's not so much losing him that hurts, but who takes his place? That is three holes next year...possibly four! That costs big time money to cover up even if you are bringing Ollie and Pedro back. My point is you need to have these young guys here just in case....and O&BB makes a good point that once you trade the farm for a pitcher, who steps in when The Duque goes down? The Mets killed their depth and their future. Of course in your trade, the Mets still have Pelfrey and Humber so the depth is still there, but you gave up F-Mart for Blanton which is a no-no and your F-Mart move to Oak-Town does not sit well with me. F-Mart straight up would be a disaster. Just get Livan and his innings if you are worried about 200. He'll give you that in his sleep and only cost a two to three wins less. Let us not forget Heilman was good for about six wins. Who replaces that? That move actually gives the Mets less wins probably than just keeping Heilman and inking Livan.
Mulvey may not be an ace, but he can certainly be a Blanton-type guy on short order. Innings and decent ones.
If we offer Fernando Martinez, Kevin Mulvey and Aaron Heilman for Joe Blanton, I am moving to Norway.
Precisely!
2x4...thanks for using my name...I actually prefer it over Mr. Met.
Omar is damned if does and damned if he doesn't, but he simply cannot run the team with the media and us in mind. He has to do what is right. As bad as the Milledge deal was, I at least applaud him for making an unpopular move he thought would benefit the team. While the jury is out on that one and it does not look favorable, I still appreciate that move. Hopefully he acts in the same manner in this case.
10:47 AM
I'm just saying if you want Blanton, it will probably cost the Mets what I offered, based on what Beane has gotten for Haren and Swisher.
If Mulvey is going to be a 200+ innings guy, then fine. But he's not going to do it this year, in a year where we NEED a 200+ inning guy. If you want to sign Livan....then I guess that's our only option.
But dont be pissed when I say a rotation of Pedro-Maine-Perez-Livan-Hum/Frey leads me to believe the Mets would not make the playoffs.
- Nokes
11:10 AM
But I don't want Blanton. Livan/Lohse + Heilman + F-Mart + Mulvey > Blanton.
No questions. People keep preaching innings, but what do Livan and Lohse give you? Innings.
And if you think Pedro/Maine/Perez/Livan/Humber or Pelfrey misses while Pedro/Maine/Perez/Blanton/Humber or Pelfrey minus our 2nd best reliever makes us that much better, then I have to greatly disagree.
In no way would any Blanton deal make sense with other viable options available. Giving that much up for Blanton would be a panic move and certainly not be the betterment of the team.
12:09 PM
I have to say, looking at a rotation of Pedro/Maine/Perez/Livan/Pelf/Humb looks pretty good to me. Pretty pretty good...
I have to admit, I'm buying into Mike's belief of bringing in Livan for a year (if that is even possible which I question). Using him as a number four to eat up 200 innings is not bad at all. On a good team, which this team will be, he could be a safe bet for 12-14 wins. That is not bad at all out of your number 4 starter. I don't see why Maine/Perez don't repeat what they did last year. They're solid, young guys with a good coach watching over them in The Jacket. The wildcard is Pedro. If he's healthy and can pickup 13-15 w's, then we're looking at the front four in the rotation all with potential 15 wins each. That team makes the playoffs if that happens. We do have a nice offense still. And our farm will stay in tact. I like it.
The big problem...I would bet money on the fact that someone is out there willing to give Livan 2 years say for $10 mil. I'm not down with locking him in for that long.
12:22 PM
A rotation of Pedro, Perez, Maine, Hernandez, ElDuque/Pelfrey with ElDuque moving to the pen at the break (or when he returns from a break down)is a pretty good rotation. Having the top three guys that can realistically post ERAs under 3.60, two of whom pitch 180 plus innings & the third maybe 160, followed by two guys with a shot at league average or a bit worse makes for a very good staff. If the pen carries it's load the Mets will have a top 4 staff in the NL. Sanchez comming back healthy and effective is key in my mind. Having a dominant ace is not essential, although it is preferrable in a 5 or 7 game series. My view is #4 & 5 pitchers can be purchased, #1,2,& 3 pitchers are much more likely to come from within since most teams won't trade them. Pelfrey, Humber, & maybe Mulvey (#3/4?)have potential to be #2 or 3 pitchers. No other Met prospect close to being ML ready fall into that category. Trading a Guerra or Neise type guy is OK since they may project to a #2, or 3 but are far enough away they can be replaced. Pelfrey and Humber's "stuff" set them apart from the Blanton's of the world. Hunber should be better 2 years out from TJ surgery. If the Mets trade away talent they should shoot for youth that can be a #2 or 3 starter. Two or three seasons ago Bedard had stuff but hadn't figured out how to use it yet. I still think Pelfrey & Humber could follow a similar path. Innings can be bought through free agency, potential #3 or better starters are rarely available. It took an epic collapse to miss the playoffs in 2007. This team is fine without overpaying for Santana and especially so without overpaying for Blanton.
12:29 PM
OK. I've got no problem with what ya'll are saying They're all valid points....except for the invatuation with Loshe. Wasnt he going to get waived by the Twins weeks before he got traded to the Reds? If you were going to sign Loshe and give him the money that been rumored out there, then Silva would have been a better option. Kyle Loshe? ERA over 4.50, WHIP over 1.3 and 15 quality starts last year? THAT'S Kyle Loshe. I have ZERO point ZERO ZERO confidence in him. And if you say he'll give you innings, they will be all shit innings.
My point with Blanton is this; if we trade for him, we put him in the rotation. Pedro/Blanton/Maine/Perez/Hum-Frey. We move El Duque to the 8th inning to replace Heilman whom we've traded to get Blanton. The bullpen would consist of Wagner/Orlando/Smith/Feliciano/Sanchez/Wise and another guy who I'm drawing a blank. Again, I'm just basising my proposed deal because of what the Sox and D'Backs gave to Oakland for Haren and Swisher. That's all.
But Ok, different scene: Then let's say for expamle we dont end up with Santana or Blanton and dont sign Loshe or Livan because some crazy team would over-spend to sign those two. Now what? Pedro-Maine-Perez-El Duque-Hum/Frey? Becasue right now that's what we're looking at.
- Nokes
12:48 PM
Anthony, I would be willing to go two on Livan if it means Lohse is not here for four.
O&BB, good stuff. I 100% agree and the Mets really need to take a leap of faith and let someone develop. It miay not be pretty all the time, but it needs to happen.
Nokes...Lohse still had a bette ERA+ than Glavine and threw 200 innings. We are looking to get at least that from our 4th and Livan and Lohse do that. I am not infatuated with him at all, but he is the 2nd best option at this point long term and best overall arm period at this point. That is not say much, I agree, but Blanton is not that much better that it would warrent trading anyone for him. Sure the Mets save money, but they need to suck it up, spend some cash, and keep their prospects.
In the end, Blanton is just not that much of an improvement to justify making the bullpen weaker. Heilman, Wagner, The Duque, Wise, Smith, Feliciano, and Sanchez has the potential to be a complete shut-down bullpen with four guys that can realistically hit 180 to 200 innings.
Blanton is flat out not needed.
As for your last scenario, I would never suggest that. Omar needs to get one more arm no matter what. 2 years for Livan or (gulp...) four years for Lohse is NOTHING else is available, it needs to get done. They need one more arm and they can put Garcia or Jennings in their back pocket for later.
1:15 PM
Can someone please tell Rickey exactly WHAT the Twins are asking for in return for Santana? There's so much confusion and B.S. out there at the moment and it makes it pretty hard to get even remotely interested in the possibility of acquiring the guy.
Please please please no Livian... Rickey can only take so much damnit.
1:48 PM
Can someone please tell Rickey exactly WHAT the Twins are asking for in return for Santana? There's so much confusion and B.S. out there at the moment and it makes it pretty hard to get even remotely interested in the possibility of acquiring the guy.
Please please please no Livian... Rickey can only take so much damnit.
1:48 PM
Rickey felt so stronly about not getting Livian that he posted twice. Rickey will not apologize for his gaffe.
1:49 PM
I believe in the common sense approach but baseball has lost touch w/ reality when it comes to the value of starting pitching. So now that if we make a trade we strip the farm system bare, the pitching we would be offering is an unk. commodity, Pelfrey and Mulvey are young and could develope or to continue to disappoint, Gomez and FMart ( I would not trade him) but offer Heilman instead. So basicaly the trade would be a net loss of 2 pitchers and an outfielder if it happens, we are not a SMALL MARKET TEAM and if he will sign with us within 72 hours do the trade, the team will be better, the TV ratings will go up, Shea will be full, the new stadium will be full and the team will have to start paying a luxury tax.
Also the collapse of last year can be a blessing in disguise and trust me if Willie does not change his ways in managing and deameanor he will be gone.
1:49 PM
Double posting is encouraged. Repetition is a great way of getting your point across, no matter how misguided it is.
VIVA LIVAN!!!
Also, Jayson Stark had said Gomez, F-Mart, Mulvey, Pelfrey, and Humber. However, that was just heresay in some article and that does not seem all that realistic no matter how bad the Mets system is perceived to be.
If you go by the other rumored packages, you would have to assume that a fair deal is Gomez or F-Mart, two of Mulvey, Humber or Pelfrey, and a lower level guy like Niese or Guerra would be the right deal. That would be approximately what other teams are giving in terms of overall talent and possibly even better given the upside of a Guerra, F-mart, or Gomez.
VIVA LIVAN!!!
Who knows....I think the Mets have their offer on the table with few columns of players to choose from, but it is all speculation. My only point with the post was to try and get some santity back in these talks.
VIVA LIVAN!!!!
Steve...I would do ONE outfielder and two pitchers, but nothing more and that is the crux of the issue. Could the Mets get that done? It seems no from what we've been hearing.
Also, as stated previously, K-Law says F-Mart > Hughes or Ellsbury and presumably Lester. Now that is just one man's opinion, but the Mets need to not get ripped off. F-Mart, while he has a ways to go, is truly a top tier prospect. That is an important thing and if they are selling low, they simply cannot do that.
F-Mart, Guerra, Pelfrey, and say Rustich is a fantastic package. In fact, I think it is better than any other proposed packaged with Ellsbury or Lester or Hughes. It also makes me happy two close to the bigs guys in Humber and Mulvey are here with Gomez. I'd rather swap out Gomez and F-Mart which does downgrades the package.
On top of all that, Milledge's upsides is greater than Ellsbury's which makes that deal even more annoying. The Mets made it more difficult to make any Santana deal and got rid of more depth that they needed. As many have stated, what was the rush to make a move that could have been made at anytime. Washington was going to be the winner no matter when the deal was made, but Omar felt he needed to clear up the catching situation pronto.
There are a lot of things going on here and there are deals that are palatable for Santana, but the point (I hope it did not get lost with all this discussion) is that the Mets simply cannot trade the farm for Santana. It does not make sense.
2:41 PM
Mr. Met, many thanks to introducing us to the cardboard gods website.
http://cardboardgods.baseballtoaster.com/
I can't get enough of the author's description of 1970's and 80's baseball cards, and their humorous tangential involvement in his life. It's a must read.
3:27 PM
Enjoy....please. I will also take all the credit for introducing you to the site.
Also, thanks for reminding me to add it to the sidebar.
3:40 PM
Well throwing out Lohse for four or Livan for two, yes, definitely agreed. I will take Livan all day long for two. But that 2nd year could get ugly.
3:52 PM
It could get ugly. Or he can do what he's done since 2000 and give you innings. 240, 226, 233, 225, 234, 268, 246, 216, and 204.
Now I am not saying they ave all been gems, but he's had an ERA+ hovering around league average to slighly below since the last three years. Chances are he will at worst a #5 that will give you innings.
That is not so bad. He will be 34 at that point and let's face it....his stuff will not get worse. He already throws mid to low 80's. He is what he is and can probably pitch like this for a while.
While there is risk, he has been as healthy as a horse. I'm sure coming to Shea will help his aging years look a little better, no?
3:59 PM
The reason the Nationals deal had to be done when it was is that Estrada had to be tendered a contract if we did not acquire another catcher. I am not saying I liked the move, or that I even approve of the deal...its just that I must continue to have faith in Omar to do what he feels is right.
2/5ths of our rotation were acquired as throw-ins on deals he has made...all this bitching about pitching and the future...well think about if we hadn't acquired Maine as the Benson throw-in, or OP as Nady throw-in...That doesnt even take into account that El Duque was acquired for Julio, who also was acquired for benson
So Omar has acquired 3 current starting pitchers for the equivalent of Nady and Benson.
4:32 PM
Right. However, can you continue to count on the rotation being compromised of throw-ins? I take that as a bit of luck coming the Mets way and it was a great job by Omar, but not a way to assume the franchise will continue to acquire talent.
I am thankful the Mets essentially stole those guys, but they need to actually not count on getting lucky and/or stealing players moving forward.
4:56 PM
Im not advocating they rely on throw-ins...merely used that as evidence that I will continue to believe in Omar making the right move. It was in a direct response to the question "why did the Milledge move have to be made so soon?" The true analysis of this deal will not be known until the careers (at least the controlable years for each player) have expired...lets debate that at a later time.
Omar has gotten some heat lately for the minor deals he made last year (FLA/SD) but in both instances he was sending old (for prospects) relievers for players with much more upside. I will never fault him for making either of those moves, and he, in my opinion, should be required to make a terrible deal before he is questioned.
5:13 PM
yessssss....you're finally posting again. thank the gods!!!!
VIVA LIVAN!!! I can live with that.
Omar per Fatcessa on WFAN yesterday said the Twins have not budged one inch from asking for Reyes for Johan or no deal. so throw that into the world of misinformation out there right now.
5:26 PM
The Heath Bell deal was horrible.
Ben Johnson isnt even on the team anymore.
It was horrible from Day 1 and remains to be horrible.
Even if Bell couldnt fit with this team and needed a change of scenery, Omar got poop for him.
5:28 PM
No rank or anything. Just wanted to say it's Janurary 4th and we've got 29 comments on baseball.
I think that's pretty cool.
- Nokes
5:29 PM
-Scott
For any bad news Omar has received for those moves to SD Fla, he should receive a pat on the back for the Perez/Maine trades! We gave up nothing and got back to SP who should win 15+ games every season and be awesome #2 & #3 starters for several years. But we do need a bona fide Ace...Pedro is no longer this. HE is now an exceptionally good #2.
For our 4 best prospects Santana is a bargain. Do it, just do it.
Everything we will need to fill holes in 09 will be found on the FA market. 1b...tons, RF/LF...tons. Dont worry about the farm, worry about the rotation.
5:29 PM
Dep beat me too it. I no longer blindly follow Omar. See my New Year's resolution from the other day.
Scott, Omar has made some great moves and help this team make great strides, but he still makes mistakes. Of course it is impossible to get rid of all the mistakes because bad things happen, but I will not assume any deal he makes is a good one.
We do need to field a team after '08!!! We'll start to look like the aging Mets of '01 through '04 if we rely on the FA market and it will cost big bucks. New York team or not, the Mets have a budget as we've seen over the years.
I'm out!
6:09 PM
Also...I wouldn't mind making a serious run at Tex, who'll cost HUGE dollars. Tex, Ollie, Johan, Pedro, another pitcher to fill in the spot vacated by The Duque...Replacing Alou!!!
That is $71 million on '09 payroll alone on the low end of things. You cannot liquidate...I'm sorry. Bad idea. I like Johan, but the Mets just are not in a position to make that deal. Of course, the deal is speculative, but makes for interesting conversation.
6:11 PM
Yes, it is so good to be talking baseball again in Jan. Thanks for getting back on the posting horse.
As for the Heath Bell and Bannister trades, yup they were bad deals. All GMs make bad deals from time to time. If the worst deal Omar's made cost us Heath Bell and Brian Bannister, I swear I will find a way to live.
Mike - you know what, I'm right with you on passing on Johan and signing Livan. 2/16M is fine for me - that's a bargain given the current contracts, I think he'll take it to pitch with his brother, and we can afford it.
Do that, and our rotation will feature four guys with ERAs last year under 4.00 (Pedro, El Duque, Maine, and Perez), and plenty of innings. This group would be backed up by three B+ level prospects (Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey) who are major league ready. Seriously, how many teams in the NL can match that??
And if you think there are two many question marks in that group, keep in mind that if you trade for Johan and want to make a run at it all, you will be counting on the same people (without the depth behind them).
So...I'm all for taking our shot with what we've got, getting someone from the Pelfrey / Humber / Mulvey group established for next year, refilling the system with 3 #1s and the international signings, and tagging FMart, Guerra, Niese and Ruben Tejada untouchable. I don't want 2008 to be our year, I want 2006-2015 to be our decade.
-ube
1:15 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3180552
i am the minority but i blame last years collapse on our offense. nobody thinks about how it often struggled to put up big numbers. i blame that on delgado and loduca who didnt produce...
and now his ass is saying shit like this.... wtf
2:06 AM
I hate Willie Randolph alot.
Also, the other day, i forgot to mention this but I was playing Halo 3 on XBox Live against the immortal Jeff Keppinger. He was horrible at the game. I think his mom got it for him for christmas or something.
Speaking of video games, I started playing MLB 2K7 on my Xbox 360 today and I got really excited about baseball season. I think playing that gave me a positive attitude on the Mets for the first time in 3 months. Except for Willie Randolph I just hate him.
Bobby Keppel signed by the Marlins with an invite to spring training, lol.
Roger Clemens is a douchebag.
3:18 AM
-scott
Does anyone actually like Randolph?
Does his mother like him as Mets manager? I'm sure she loves him but probably cries when she sees the terrible mistakes he makes.
Look, Johan will cost alot...a helluva lot. However, he will be an ace pitcher for the next 7 seasons. 20% of our rotation fixed in place for 7 seasons. The potential to win 120+ games over those 7 seasons.
Yep I'd drive Gomez, Heilman, et al to Minnifrickinsota for that!
1:38 PM
If you direct your browser to other Mets blogs you will find many Randolph supporters. I am not one of them but I believe he is better than his initial year when I used to use this image when referring to him.
IMO this off-seasons LM trade will eventually eclipse any negative trade that Omar has made. If the Mets would have had to retain Estrada then so be it. People make him out to be a Leper. Even though he has moved a bit the last few years he has always done the bulk of that teams catching, made the all-star team a few years back and caught on Braves’ teams that won their division. I really don’t believe the LM trade was made for on the field reasons. Would the Mets really have been worse off if they kept LM and Estrada and signed Kosuke Fukudome(of course the Wilpons would have had to spend money for that).
As I have said before I don’t want the Mets to strip their farm system in a trade for an ace pitcher and have enumerated my reasons or referred to Mike’s writing on this subject. I am fully aware of what an Ace pitcher can do since I followed the Mets during the early ‘70’s and the mid to late ‘80’s as well as other teams over the years. I have seen too many teams with Ace pitchers go nowhere as well as others that have won it all. Likewise I have seen too many teams without an Ace win it all as well fail. You can use the 2006 team as a team without an Ace after Pedro went down as a role model but my favorite role model is the Big Red Machine of the ‘70’s that was in the NL Champion Series 6 times wining 4 of them and winning 2 WS rings.
6:46 PM
Benny - listen, I like Johan. A lot. But there is 0 guarantee he will be an ace for 7 years. That's not the way baseball works. People thought the same thing about Hampton (a reach) and Brown (who was clearly the best pitcher in baseball when he signed). They were both huge drains of money.
Pitchers - even great ones - get hurt, break down, etc. And if it takes Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, Gomez, and Martinez to get Johan, who backs up for Pedro and El Duque if they get hurt?? We'll have Johan, Maine, Perez, and... Crap. That might be good enough to make the playoffs, but it's not good enough to win, and we sacrificed our future. What's the point?? And how about 2009 when our rotation is Johan, Maine, and????
To me, the upside of emptying the farm system for Johan is a 1 or 2 year window where we aren't even the best team in the league, and then we suck again. The downside is we give up our whole future. I just don't think it's worth it...
-ube
8:22 PM
Why don't we just carry 13 pitchers and play Spring training all year
6:10 AM
-Scott
Clemens is a drug user, no question. Could the man answer a question! HE was deliberately obtuse and avoided anything that would come back to bite him later. I hope McNamee sues him and he lies to Congress and gets the Bonds treatment.
Colon might be done. He hasn't hit 90 yet and pulled himself from the last 2 starts. Not good if you are looking for a multi-year dealio.
Looks like Jason Jennings and Freddy Garcia are the only ones left on readr
11:53 AM
I know Jason Jennings is a fat SOB, but I think he still can pitch, and in the pinch, he can be used as a pinch hitter, he can rake for a pitcher.
It's only 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers!
1:01 PM
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