I Talk Prospects to Ignore the Pain

Jim Callis talks top 10 and I talk prospects so I can ignore the bigs.

1. Fernando Martinez, of
Still young and talented, but his lack of production may mean he's overhyped.
2. Ike Davis, 1b
Hulking lefthanded slugger can handle the outfield and pitch, too.
3. Reese Havens, ss
More likely a third baseman or possibly a catcher, stands out with approach and pop.
4. Jon Niese, lhp
Quietly having success in Double-A at age 21, he owns three solid pitches.
5. Dan Murphy, 3b
Having a breakout year with a .325 average and eight homers in Double-A.
6. Mike Carp, 1b
Back on track in Double-A after slumping in 2007, he's hitting .351 with nine homers.
7. Eddie Kunz, rhp
New York's top 2007 pick has held his own in Double-A in his first full season.
8. Brad Holt, rhp
2008 supplemental first-rounder can touch 96 mph, needs a reliable second pitch.
9. Javier Rodriguez, of
2008 second-rounder is a lean athlete with speed and projectable power.
10. Nick Evans, 1b
Another Double-A masher (.295, nine homers), he destroys lefthanded pitching.

First thing you may notice is the #2 and #3 prospects were the 2008 first rounders and #8 and #9 were drafted in the sandwich round and the second round respectively. Now, that might seem disconcerting to some, but I would a bit shocked and disappointed if a team's first rounders were not immediately in the top ten.

I mean, you would have to have a system better than Tampa to not have that happen and I would venture to guess Davis and Havens would have cracked a lot of top tens and plenty of top fives. Yes, the Met systems is weaker than many others, but Davis and Havens are solid ballplayers for sure.

As far as Holt and Rodriguez go, Holt can throw really, really hard which will always garner some attention. I am tepid on him to say the least and I think the Mets should give him a go as a starter and let him work on his secondary stuff and not make some Brandon Morrow debacle out of him and rush him through as a reliever with the lack of anything but a fastball or a Mike Pelfrey debacle and just plain 'ole rush him and change him too much.

Rodriguez has a sweet swing. You do not need to be a scout to see that and he looks like a solid player and if Mr. Callis says he has projectable power to go along with that sweet swing, I am a fan. He has a little bit of a uppercut, but nothing tremendous, and should be able to generate some lift. Some guys are too flat to really hit for a ton of power like Milledge, but this guy looks solid fundamentally.

Also, the Mets finally have some guys at higher levels that are performing. Five of the top ten are in AA and Murphy, Carp, and Evans are all in the top 15 in OPS in the league. Niese has put together a solid year and is still walking a bit too many, but had put up some solid numbers.

As for the Mets #1 prospect, I wholeheartedly agree with Callis. Yes, he is talented, but his best trait these days is being 19 in AA. Yes, he has been held back because of injuries, but why in the name of Kim Kardashian's ass do they continue to rush him? The only year you could call a good one is the first half of '06 when he had an OPS of .880 at 17 years old. Since them, he has put up .641, .713, and .722. I want him to be a stud just as much as anyone, but I cannot see one justifiable reason to rush him and not allow him to let his talent and production dictate when he is moved rather than some absurd timetable like a new stadium.

Overall, every year I am perhaps overly optimistic about the Mets system. Right now, it is painfully clear they need more pitching and especially so because Pelfrey is going through so many ups and downs. However, there are some bats and a few potential impact players that will be ready as early as 2009 which is in stark contrast to some previous season where the Mets have been pitching heavy and laden with prospects in the lower ranks.


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Also from the above link:

Waggoner is a hot name on college baseball's coaching hot stove. He truly believes he can get quality players to come to Marshall, and he has expressed affection for the school and administration. He says he's not thinking of going anywhere. However, Marshall must step up and deliver a home ballpark to have any shot at keeping such an up-and-coming talent in town for long. Right now, that looks like a longshot, because the school claims to be short on funds.

The other hot name on college coaching wish lists is New Orleans' Tom Walter. The Privateers have reached regionals in consecutive years for the first time in nearly two decades despite unimaginable adversity resulting from Hurricane Katrina. The local Times-Picayune ran a terrific story about Walter that outlines all the obstacles New Orleans has had to overcome and what the future might hold for the coach and the program. It's well worth a read.

Basketball and Football both scout the college ranks for coaches. More often than not, it does not work out because the coaches go from being a big fish in a little pond to being quite the opposite and scrutinized more than they are used to. Less job security, less input, less everything...

However, with such a lack of coaching talent (seemingly anyway), it is surprising no MLB teams have even tried this approach for looking for coaches. MLB seems to be a tightly knit frat that respects ex-MLB ballplayers more whereas in the past, non-MLB players were used more liberally.

I have no idea if it is a respect thing, but it is something that probably hurts the coaching pool. Football and basketball have plenty of non-ex pros as coaches, but in baseball? Not so much. Maybe it is time to broaden the horizon a bit and expand the search for coaches.

Rob Neyer speaks my language.

Dan (NJ) : Do you think the Mets have what it takes to make a run at the wild card, let alone the division? They look pretty messed up right now.

Rob Neyer: I haven't looked it up lately, but over their last 162 games the Mets are essentially a .500 team. Are they more talented than that? I believe they are, but I think they need a shock to their system. Like a new manager.

It seems that Mr. Neyer cannot get enough of the Mets and some national baseball writers are taking notice of our crusade.

Speaking of consistency, over their last 162 games the Mets are 82-80. Yes, it's cherry-picking. While 162 is not an arbitrary numbers, it's little more indicative than 142 (72-70) or 182 (90-92). But you know, 182 games is a fair number of games. The Mets are two games under .500 in their last 182 games. That means something, doesn't it?

Bad luck? Maybe. But over those same 182 games the Mets have scored 868 runs and they've allowed 869 runs. Exactly the profile of a .500 team. Over 182 games. That means something doesn't it.

And yet the organization just rolls merrily along with the same manager and the same general manager. If I were a Mets fan I would be leading a revolt in the streets. (Actually, I would be hoping that someone else would lead a revolt that I could follow, at a safe distance.)

Blissfully ignorant they continue to trudge down the path of mediocrity.

“Until they prove differently, they’ve been playing this way for almost a year now, so it’s hard to believe they’re going to turn back to 2006 all at once before the All-Star break,” Darling said.

Why anyone thinks things will magically turn around is beyond me.

But Darling says it’s time to re-think the metrics of the Mets’ presumed superiority. The reason, he says, is linked to the changing industry itself: more and more teams are drifting away from older, higher-priced players, particularly free agents, and are instead filling their rosters with younger, less expensive talent. In many respects, having too much money is a curse – the Yankees and Tigers are prime examples — which is why Darling says the Mets’ $140 million payroll is a guarantee of nothing.

That will never happen as the Mets have committed themselves to winning. Rebuilding is not an option at this point and that typically leads to a vicious circle.

“We’re back to the days where 35 is old again,” Darling said. “Except for the last 10 years, when a player reached his mid-30s, he was done, he was old. And old players play like horse-[bleep]. That’s the tradition of the game for the last 50 years.”

Does this mean the Mets are cooked for 2008? Darling won’t – can’t – say that. The wild card is their beacon of light, and it’s probably what’s keeping Willie Randolph employed. Still, the manager seems more out of touch every day, insisting he saw “positives” in the blowout against the Diamondbacks, trying to convince reporters that Arizona’s hitters “found a few holes and we didn’t.”

And there we have it...even keeled Willie.

I find it ridiculous that the Willie watch is on and off and on and off. It is a flat out yes he should be gone, but how does a few wins change that? As Rob Neyer said, it is not just this season. This mediocrity goes back a looooong ways.

It seems the Mets had a closed door meeting which is nice that something is going on outside of the eye of the media, but we also have not heard about many of these and one has to wonder if they have not been happening, why not?

Prospect Musings

I am late to the party on this one, but when am I not?

Mets Top 10
1. Fernando Martinez, of
So far ahead of the rest of the system, but still a long way from his ceiling.
2. Eddie Kunz, rhp
It's not a good sign when a reliever from the most recent draft is your No. 2 prospect.
3. Brant Rustich, rhp
It's worse when a reliever from the most recent draft is your No. 3 prospect as well.
4. Jon Niese, lhp
Young lefty with solid stuff will pitch in Double-A at age 21.
5. Nathan Vineyard, lhp
Sandwich pick last June has the potential for three average or better pitches.
6. Robert Parnell, rhp
Gets whiffs with his fastball and slider, but must refine his changeup to stay a starter.
7. Joe Smith, rhp
Sidearm reliever made his big league debut 10 months after getting drafted.
8. Scott Moviel, rhp
He's 6-foot-11 and already touches 94 mph, though his breaking ball needs work.
9. Danny Murphy, 3b
His third-base defense is an issue, but he has the second-best bat in the system.
10. Wilmer Flores, 3b/ss
Signed out of Venezuela for $750,000, he draws some Miguel Cabrera comps.

I find it strange that Vineyard, who I really like, and Niese are not above Kunz and Rustich. I cannot see how those two would not be above them being starters with a #2/#3 ceiling. But that is just me...

John Sickels' list:

1. Fernando Martinez, OF
2. Jon Niese, LHP
3. Eddie Kunz, RHP
4. Brant Rustich, RHP
5. Joe Smith, RHP
6. Nick Evans, 1B
7. Stephen Clyne, RHP
8. Scott Moviel, RHP
9. Brahiam Maldonado, OF
10. Nate Vinyard, LHP

Here, you could extend what BA says to say if your 3, 4, and 5 guys are all college relievers that you drafted over the past two seasons, things are not good. However, I do some bright spots.

I was a bit pessimistic when I said the Mets could have the worst system in the league. That of course belongs to the Houston Astros at this point, but the Mets are certainly in the bottom third. The only reason they are not in the conversation for the worst is because they have a legit blue chip prospect in Fernando Martinez that is one of the few guys in the conversation for the projected #1 prospect in 2009 out of all of baseball. If you can produce three superstars from your system and have them all at the big league level at the same time, you are doing something right, which the Mets might have.

Also, what I do find interesting here is that Niese and Vineyard are both lefties. Those are rare commodities and I do see them as the #2 and #3 prospects rather than the legions of right-handed relievers. Niese is a hard throwing lefty and I am sucker for lefties that own plus sliders, which Vineyard has. They have a knack for making lefties and righties alike look stupid.

There is just something about sliders and lefties that righties just rarely replicate. Jeff Nelson had a frisbee-esque slider, Joba has a devastating one, as do a few others, but Kazmir, O. Perez, and RJ (in his heyday) make righties swing at balls that hit the tops of their shoes. I am not suggesting Vineyard's is going to be that good, but he throws in the low 90's, is projectable, and already has a good slider. Therefore, I am going to begin my irrational fawning over him as a prospect.

Moviel is another guy I really like. Think high 90's fastball. That is where it will be sitting by the time he is in the upper rungs of the minors. Of course, that may not be a good thing. As far as guys who are up in the high 90's go, their success rate and ability to put things together for a sustained big league career is rather low. There are more guys with high heaters that do not make it than do make it. However, that does not mean this kid has no chance to be legit. Plenty that do make it and are able to harness their fastball are usually pretty good.

Let us not forget that Flores guy. The Mets were active in '07 on the international front and inked Martin Perez for $560,000, Wilmer Flores for $750,000, Kelvin Mostcantero for $400,000, Jeffrey Marte for $550,000, and Polanco for $400,000. That is a lot of coin and gone are they days of calling Fred Wilpon cheap. We do not know much on these guys so these are all names to keep on the radar.

Another positive development to keep an eye on is actually honest to god hitting prospects. Dan Murphy's .430 SLG% in St. Lucie in his first go 'round as a pro, Maldonodo's .500+ SLG% in 2007, and Nick Evans' .476 SLG% in St. Lucie are all encouraging signs. They will all be 22 for the 2008 season and they will all be in A+ or AA baseball. These guys will not make any top 100 lists or garner the attention of many thirteen year old girls when they make the bigs, but all have a chance to be contributing regulars on the big league level and successful teams simply need to grow not just superstars and little else, but a supporting cast as well. The Mets have done a bad job with position guys, but these three look promising.

The truly obvious problem and one that has repeated many, many times, outside of Pelfrey and Fernando, there is nothing outside of a few relievers on the way to help. Of course, the Mets have a lot of young guys they control for a while, but they will lack the wherewithal to pull of trades or fill in for injuries. Another year like 2007 could be devastating for this team over the next few years. Health is key because their depth is at an all time low.

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Sure he had an ERA north of 6.00 last season, but I still like the deal.

He is still young and might be able to string a nice season together.

Radomski spills the beans.

Tim Marchman continues his stellar work.

John Maine, the Mets' no. 3 starter, was born in May 1981. Oliver Perez, the no. 4 starter, was born three months later. The Mets stole each in seemingly minor deals in 2006. Last year, each won 15 games and ranked in the top 20 in the National League in earned run average: This year, they could make the difference between a team that rates among the best in baseball's weaker league, and a team that rates as the best in baseball. If they pitch as well as they did last year, the Mets will probably win the division. If one does and the other raises his game, they'll almost certainly win it. If both find a new level, they might win 100 games.

This team could win in the high 90's if Pedro is healthy and Maine and Perez continue to do what we all think they can. However, the article was a really interesting one comparing and contrasting the two and who was better.

Essentially, Perez wasn't quite as good as he looked last year, and his record doesn't quite support the idea that he's even as good as he was last year. Maine, meanwhile, was about as good as he looked last year, and has been so for some time. There's a clear, meaningful distinction between them — Perez is a solid no. 3 starter with an upside well past that, and a good chance of reaching it; while Maine is a no. 2 starter who just needs to add some innings. Take into account that Perez will probably earn more over the next two years as Maine will over the next three, and it's clear which is a terrific young pitcher and which is one of the more valuable properties in the league. You can root for both pitchers, but if you have to pick one, make it Maine.

Maine's DiPS ERA was roughly the same as his regular ERA and about 0.20 lower than Perez's. So despite Ollie's lower ERA, his DiPS ERA suggests he was lucky a bit while Maine actually did pitch slightly better.

Beltran still is not 100%.

Billy is shooting for the stars

Reportedly, the A's want two from Column A — pitcher Homer Bailey, pitcher Johnny Cueto or first baseman Joey Votto. Seriously, while the A's are at it, why don't they also ask for the Carew Tower and a Montgomery Inn franchise to be built later?

Wow.

Allllllll the way out of left field, the Twins sign Livan. For that price, I could think of many other teams that should have jumped all over him.

Hypothetically Speaking

Let us say for a moment that the Mets needed to include Gomez, F-Mart, Mulvey, and Pelfrey to compete with the packages of the Red Sox and Yankees for Johan. Of course I have no idea if that is truly even and offer, but Jayson Stark mentioned that the Twins had asked for all of them in addition to Humber. You cannot blame them as you have to start somewhere and leave room for the Mets to negotiate down.

Would that be a remotely intelligent move? I have a hard time believing so. As stated yesterday, Oliver Perez is set to hit the market with The Duque and Pedro. Of course they can all come back, but it would cost close over $35 million to do so on top of the $20 million they are paying Johan and the raise John Maine would be due to get.

Then, you would have to look at the depth of the system and gag just a bit with a complete dearth of talent at the top of the system with the exception of Phil Humber able to contribute meaningfully at the big league level. If you are counting on the three picks of the '08 draft that have not even been picked yet to bolster this team's future, that might be a little optimistic. Those picks need to be a supplement of players already in the system.

Deolis Guerra, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, Phil Humber, Brant Rustich, Scott Moviel, Nate Vinyard, Robert Parnell, and a few others are still around, but that would unequivocally be one of the worst three systems in baseball. Three picks, even if they all pan out and the Mets are able to score top tier talent that dropped a bit are not going to change that much. Also, the only meaningful players set to step on a big league diamond before 2010/2011 will be Humber and a few relievers.

Not that I enjoy adding more caveats, but the likelihood of those guys stepping on the field being impact players their first season or two is extremely unlikely which pushes back the time line a bit for them to be a vital part of this team. Of course, that is all predicated upon these guys, who have so far to go, working out. It is scary out there on the free agent market and with more teams having cash and letting less and less talent go, you simply need to be able grow some players. By the time Reyes and Wright are done being cheap, the Mets are set to virtually have no cheap help from within barring anything big going on and they will have plenty of holes to fill.

If you are are not developing, you are not winning. I want Johan and who wouldn't? But it can certainly be argued that the Mets are not in as dire of a need as many think with Pedro, Ollie, and Maine leading the team. They give the Mets a shot to win in a short series and provide a solid foundation for the pitching staff in '08. This 'get Johan at all costs' idea does not resonate all that well with me and the Mets are not quite at the point where they can trade five top prospects for one player, but should strive to get to that point with a few good drafts, holding onto their top picks, and paying out over slot.

Johan makes the Mets favorites, but it is a big gamble and big loss if they do not win it all. It is tough to pass up on a deal like this, but if Omar truly cares about 2009 and beyond, he better tread lightly. I am not saying there is no package the Mets can put together that makes sense both now and long term, but the ones we have heard bandied about that it will take to land Johan are certainly not a positive thing for this team after 2008.

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Swisher dealt to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, and Faustino De Los Santos? Wow. I have to say that Kenny Williams has made some bold moves this off-season, but he does have two young and extremely solid to very good outfielders on his hands now. I like Swisher a lot, as many of you all do, and he is still under control for a while. If you are going to trade youth, you need to get youth back. I'm sure people will be saying Williams gave up a lot to get him, but it seems fair in my eyes given the contact status of Swisher.

I was not all that huge of a fan of the Garland move, but Williams has put together an interesting off-season if nothing else and definitely made some aggressive moves to cover some holes. At this point, Beane absolutely needs to just rid the team of Blanton and whatever other tradeable commodities there are, but you have to be ok with his current haul so far if you are an Oakland fan. It is never easy to see your team rebuild, but doing it intelligently should cushion the blow.

The New Top Ten

1) Carlos Gomez
Gomez jumps to the top of the list with his admirable play on the big league level. The numbers will not tell the entire story of his time with the Mets as you had to see him play. His defense was great, his arm was filthy, his speed is Reyes-esque, and his bat looked lively. He seems to swing for the fences at all times, but he looks like the real deal. He also showed that he needs more work and with his lost time this year he needs more time in the minors to start '08. However, there is no reason to think he will not be ready for the bigs in late '08 or be there in case Alou goes down (the Mets will pick up Alou's option).

2) Fernando Martinez
It is still a lot of projection and upside with him and though some are disappointed in Fernando so far, he is doing impressive things at his age. In his first year in pro ball he did a lot of things right and followed that up with a great showing in the Arizona Fall League. He started off hitting well in AA, though with little power, and went down with another freakish injury. His biggest problem is all the time he has sat out with annoying injuries hampering his much needed development time. While the Mets wanted him ready for 2009, it would be a more conservative estimate and probably beneficial to target him for a spot in the bigs in 2010.

3) Phil Humber
Phil has done well for his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He is on the leaderboard in plenty of categories in the PCL and has kept his walks down. A 3.25 K/BB ratio and a 1.13 WHIP is very encouraging and a power pitcher with a 12-6 curveball would provide a nice change of pace in the Mets rotation. Of course there are no spots for him this year, but he should have an opportunity to fight for a rotation spot in 2008.

4) Deolis Guerra
Like Fernando, it is a lot of projection with him. He has done some really impressive things at his age in pro ball and has been reported to pick up some velocity on his fastball this year. He already has the makings for a plus change and if he really did pick up some velocity on his fastball, he has the ingredients to be a front line starter. He just needs to get his curveball to be a usable pitch to keep hitters honest. Deolis is pitching in St. Lucie at this point and with Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey ahead of him, there is no reason to rush him. At this pace he should be ready for big league action in 2010.

5) Mike Pelfrey
I've spoke about him a lot so here so it will not kill anyone to read some more. Whether it is mental or mechanical is anyone's guess, but he is struggling. His secondary stuff is horrible despite him breaking out some really impressive changes and sliders occasionally and his command is not pretty. He seems to nibble too much and runs up high pitch counts instead of attacking hitters. He continually gets himself behind hitters and therefore into trouble. If he can get his change-up, which is more advanced than his slider, to click and stop nibbling, he can probably start getting big league hitters out. Until then, he is useless as a starter.

6) Francisco Pena
Upside, upside, upside. Until he proves he is a bust, he will be a highly regarded as a prospect. He has a good bat, good catching skills, and big league blood lines. His stats might not look good, but few catchers jump into full season ball at his age and that is just an impressive feat in itself and he should most likely repeat Savannah again next year. After next season, he should be moving up one level per year with 2012 as his target for being in the bigs and he will still be at the ripe old age of 22 for the entire regular season of baseball.

7) Kevin Mulvey
He is the only guy on the B-Mets with an ERA under 4.00 and has certainly passed his first test of his first full pro season. He owns four solid pitches with a low 90's fastball. He is never going to make scouts drool or make his way to the top of any prospects lists, but he has the ability and he has the repertoire to succeed at the highest level. He is precisely the type of pitcher that Shea (and hopefully Citi Field) will make look better than they probably are and I have high hopes for Mulvey. He should be ready by mid 2008 should the need arise.

8) Jon Niese
The hard throwing lefty is having rough season statistically. He is getting hit pretty hard in a pitcher's league but the big positive here is that he drastically cut down on his walks, which was his biggest issue in the past. His strikeouts are down substantially, but that could be a product of him throwing more strikes and pitching to contact rather than striking batters out. He should still be moving up to AA next season despite a less than stellar ERA and WHIP as long as he does not implode during the final weeks of the season. He is still 20 years old and a bit unrefined so I would not expect him to be ready for the bigs until mid 2010. Luckily the Mets have plenty of depth so he should not get rushed and should have all the development time he needs.

Here is where it gets dicey. If Eddie Kunz and Brandon Efferson had signed, I would have slid them right into the top ten with Kunz sliding into the 8th spot and Efferson sliding into the tenth spot. Though they will most likely sign, they have not yet and I have to play by the rules.

9) Scott Moviel
Scott was the second round pick this year for the Mets and was signed for $414,000. He is gigantic and he has an arm with big potential. He is pitching in the Gulf Coast League and the early returns are good. He has a 2.12 ERA, .219 BAA, and fourteen K's in seventeen innings. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the system and could move up quickly. If all goes well this season he could find himself pitching for Savannah next year in his first full season of pro ball. His target would be 2012 if everything goes well and he continues to develop.

10) Nathan Vineyard
Big Nate was the Mets second pick in the compensation round of the 2007 draft and signed for nearly $700,000. He is a lefty who throws in the low 90's with a nice slider. He has gotten knocked around so far giving up twelve runs in 13.1 innings but he also managed to strike out sixteen batters so far. He is getting hit to hard and giving up to many fly balls, but it is still early and it would be silly to judge any rookie in pro ball on such a small body of work. His target would be 2012 barring injury and could be moved through the system alongside fellow draftee Scott Moviel.

The issue I see with the top ten is there are three teenage pitchers, another twenty year old pitcher, and two college ones who have not pitched as well as many would have expected. With young arms, there is so much that can go wrong and so many things that can derail their progress. Also, it is rare that you can look at a guy and predict greatness like in the cases of Felix Hernandez or Homer Bailey (who can still have many things go wrong) so you never know what you truly have until they get closer to the bigs. When four pitchers are at High-A or lower, there is a ton of projection and a ton that could go wrong.

Throw on top of that Fernando, who has a lot more developing to do, Francisco having a ton of work to put in and a hard road to the bigs, Pelfrey and Humber not meeting expectations, and Gomez still being raw and you have a potentially explosive top ten. The likely scenario is a few make an impact with the downside being everyone burning out and the Mets getting a few middle relievers and corner outfielders who do not hit enough to keep their day jobs. However, the upside there is pretty immense as well. I would prefer some more sure bets, but the Mets youth and cash on the big league level certainly make things more palatable.

Other Noteables:
Dustin Martin, Sean Henry, Josh Stinson, Mike Carp, Jose Castro, Bobby Parnell, Tobi Stoner, and Brahiam Maldanado.

Mike Carp had been injured this season, but after a solid spring with the big club, expectations were high for him to make the next jump. That never happened and though he has not been horrible, he drops from the top ten it wasn't all that hard of a decision. His fifteen walks and sixteen extra base hits in 54 games in a hitter's league is certainly disheartening for Carp fans. Not to add fuel onto the fire, but he's hitting .140/.173/.140 line against lefties.

Martin, Henry, and Maldonado are solid and have been impressive at times, but I'll go with the young arms over guys who are slightly old for their leagues any day of the week. That being said, I do like them and there is value there. Henry is the best of the group and his athleticism is well known, but he needs to continue to add some pop and follow up his solid year in St. Lucie with a slightly better year in Binghamton to take that next step.

Bobby Parnell gained some velocity and is not too far behind Mulvey, but 78 baserunners in the FSL at 22 is nothing amazing. Parnell would have been #10 if Vineyard or Moviel did not sign, but they did and young unknowns with good arms and higher ceilings take precedent. Parnell still could be a #4 or #5 in the bigs if he keeps progressing, but should ultimately end up in the bullpen.

I'm still not sold on Castro. Too many singles...too little walks...too small...too many errors. He is 20 and leading the FSL in batting average so that does count for something, but he would have been in the #11 through #15 range for me and that is more of a reflection of a system that is not very deep more than anything.

Tobi Stoner is a somewhat of a cult hero amongst Met fans, but he's 22 and not doing anything special in the FSL. He has decent stuff but really is more of a middle relief prospect. He would be in the #15 to #20 range.

Josh Stinson is a decent prospect with a good sinker, but has not translated his ability into results.

Overall the Mets system is pretty much what it has been since 2003. It has some potential impact players with little depth behind them. That seems to be the Mets thing these days and although the system does have a bit more depth that it has had, it is all the difference from them being a top ten system and a bottom fifteen system. One thing that is curious is the Mets lack of Latin American signings.

Is there a dearth of talent out there? There has to be someone out there and with the Mets not exactly spending big in the past two drafts, holding steady on big league payroll, greatly increasing attendence, and their own network, it would make sense that they would be out there and active bringing in the top international talent as they did with Fernando and Deolis.

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More prospect talk....Benny and Danny checked in with their thoughts on Pelfrey.

You know how Peterson preaches location and with some pitchers he tells them to take off a few mph for some location?
Well Pelfrey still has shitty location so maybe he should just throw as hard he can, taking off a few mph obviously isn't helping.
Cause I mean c'mon, throwing 92 mph just isn't that special. I'm VERY dissapointed in Pelfrey and I'm a very patient guy.

Pelfrey's fastball just has not been too special to this point which is part of the problem. He needs two very good secondary pitches to supplant his fastball whereas many said he just needs passable secondary stuff because his fastball was that good. He was supposed to throw 94 mph consistently and up to 97 while keeping it up in late innings. Now he is down to 92 to 94 mph and touching 95 mph. Could taking off a couple of notches on his fastball affect the movement?

The Mets have completely screwed up Pelfrey. They did two things to him:

(1) They flew him through the minor leagues before he had even mastered a decent offspeed pitch.

(2) Peterson tried to turn Pelfrey into a sinker-balling, groundball inducing machine, by asking him to take a couple of miles off his fastball and pound the bottom of the zone with sinkers. And oh yeah, even though that is not how you have ever pitched in your life, learn how to do that at the major league level.

It's nearly a crime the way they have mishandled Pelfrey. The worst thing the Mets could do is trade him now that they have submarined his value. The prudent thing to do is slow down and allow him to develop this year at AAA, and stop yanking him up and down, and certainly don't move him to the pen.

Be very wary of giving up on young pitchers. That's why I actually sort of liked what Pelfrey did when he came back to the bigs this last time. He was letting the fastball go at 95-97 and getting more swings and misses with it. The problem is, this is not Peterson's philosophy and they are going to butt heads on Pelfrey's approach. Pelfrey wants to be a power guy and Peterson stresses efficiency. It's not a good mix.

Pelfrey will thrive is he is traded somewhere and gets with a pitching coach that can exploit his strengths. I like Peterson a lot but he is screwing Pelfrey up.

Seems like what the Pirates did to Perez in a way. His fastball will induce groundballs, but that does not mean he should be confused with a sinker-ball pitcher who's job is to do only that and pitch to contact. He needs to simply miss more bats and worry less about groundballs since he doesn't have sinker per se, but a fastball with heavy sink. There is a big difference between what he throws and what Lowe and Webb throw.

Genius or stupid? You decide....

"I said to Jerry [bench coach Jerry Manuel], 'He's going to get a hit here. He's going to come through and do it for his dad.' I get those feelings sometimes--and sure enough, the next pitch he got a hit on. So I'm happy for him because he's been in Triple-A and he's been around a while."
--Mets manager Willie Randolph on Chip Ambres' game-winning hit.

Alou will be back tomorrow.

"I think my presence will help there," Alou said. "I think my bat will help in the lineup. I know I am not 100 per cent there yet, it is going to take a while to get my swing back."

While Alou's swing may not be completely back yet, he believes his quadriceps is.

"I think I am 99 percent," said Alou, who called the injury the worst muscle pull of his career.

The thing with Alou is that his injuries are more freakish than anything at times, but it has been yet another bizarre year for him.

The Nats are inexplicably trying to trade for Adam Dunn. For a team that is so far away from competing, words cannot describe how insane that would be. If he does get traded, they will have a crack at him in the off-season as his contract would be up after the 2007 season with 2008 being voided.

Some Pedro news but I'm not sure exactly what it all means.

The club said only this much: that Martinez had thrown 50 pitches and that his next activity -- throwing batting practice, a sideline session, another simulated game or pitching in a Minor League game -- would be determined Tuesday after Martinez's condition had been re-evaluated.

I'm not really sure what time frame those next activities would occur in, but August 20th seems like an aggressive target date at this point.

Joe Smith says he is not tired, but it certainly looks like he is.

Belliard is now off the market with his bargain two year contract being inked with the Nationals for 2008 and 2009.

Counterintuitive? Yes. Beneficial? Perhaps.

The Mets have Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, and Fernando Martinez relatively close to the bigs in the outfield and Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey closet to the bigs on the mound with Maine and Oliver Perez already in the fold. The Mets have the depth to make a deal, but you could make the argument that trading any of those guys for the marginal upgrades available on the market would be a mistake (you would be 100% right), but what about a huge upgrade?

The Astros are not exactly in what I would call an enviable position. They had a minor league system ranked in the bottom third of all big league teams before Hunter Pence broke onto the scene. Next year, they could easily be be one of the three worst systems when you consider Matt Albers should be with the big club to stay and he is not even that impressive of a prospect. They are currently sitting at 13.5 games out and 1.5 games back from being tied for the worst record in the National League and three games back from having the worst record in the Major Leagues.

If you were the Astros, what would you do? We have seen the mistakes that teams make when trying to win while a certain player is around. The San Francisco Giants have made a series of horrible choices solely based around trying to win while the had Barry Bonds on the team with some other usable parts. The Astros, while in horrible shape, do have some positives going for them in Dan Wheeler, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, and Brad Lidge with another player in Mark Loretta who could add value by fetching a B- prospect in a trade.

Wheeler is under control through '08, Pence through '12, Lee through '12, Oswalt through '11, Berkman through '10, and Lidge through '08. There is a core there, but not much else. On the farm there are some decent arms that are mid to back end guys at best and the fact they did not have a draft pick until the 111st pick in the third round of this year's draft certainly does not help things. They certainly do not have the ability to buy what they need and do have enough talent to not give up. By trading Oswalt, you free up money to buy some players and get three or four players who could bring a lot to the ballclub for under $2 million.

What to do? Would you trade Oswalt if you were the Astros for two or three top 100 talents and a guy like Aaron Heilman? I'm not even sure if I would do a Milledge, Humber, and Pelfrey much less a Milledge, Heilman, Humber, and Pelfrey deal and I do not know if either team could even come to an agreement for what they would be giving up. Would three players even be enough considering the perennial Cy Young contender is inked for another four seasons after '07 at an affordable price? The Astros are far away from competing and are in dire need of getting some young impact players in their organization. If they could bring in three guys who could contribute on the big league level and at least two with possible All-Star talent, would they be better off?

Of course I do not think the Astros would do something like this, but why not? Why not a blockbuster like that? While it would certainly not be popular, it would be hard to argue that it would not be in the best interest of the team. I understand guys like Oswalt do not grow on trees and it would be impossible for the Astros to replace a pitcher like that for those dollars figures, but sometimes you have to trade your most valuable commodity to maximize your return.

On the Mets side of things, losing two or three promising prospects is softened by the fact Oswalt and Maine are under control through 2011 and they can still bring back Perez giving them three young and talented starters to form the base of their rotation. There are quite a few teams that could help themselves out with deals like this, but they never do for fear that no one would turn up the park (i.e. Bay in Pittsburgh). With the rising cost of free agents, teams are less willing to part with big time prospects for even a year and a half of a top tier player. They want young people that are under control for a long time. The landscape the game has changed quite a bit and so should the way teams look to improve their long term outlook.

* * *

In contrast to reports yesterday that Alou could be back in a week or two, it looks like he could make a return while the Mets in LA later this week.

Also within the article it seems that there is a possibility of Duaner Sanchez returning late next month. I'm not sure what can reasonably be expected of him, but it is worth nothing.

We tried Heath...we tried.

Reliever Heath Bell, who posted a 5.11 ERA for the Mets last year and was dealt to the Padres in the Ben Johnson offseason deal, has been terrific for San Diego (2.26 ERA going into last night). Said Bell, "I felt like if I just got the chance to pitch in a good role on the [Mets] that I could do what I'm doing now."

Bell got a lot of support from a lot of us and I'm guessing the Mets would like a mulligan on that deal.

Lastings continues to have his head attached to his body and the common sense flowing from his brain to the rest of his body. I don't get why people are still so negative in regards to Lastings, but whatever. He speaks like a kid who knows his time will come and he will perform what that time does come.

The Mets are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten and I cannot argue their removal at this point. They do not look like a top team in any facet and are riding purely on how well they played last season and how good people think they should be. Now, the goodwill should be drying up and they are going to have to perform to get some respect.

Bob Raissman and his stilly moustache would like more TV time for Ralph Kiner. Similarly to players feeling that teams are obligated to play them forever, why must the guys in the booth have die or be near death to get removed? Ralph Kiner has been great over the years but was in the booth for a few years more than he should have been. He gets a weekly spot now and it is nice and enjoyable, but entire games? I think we can all agree that Keith, Ron, and Gary are lightyears better than Murphy and Kiner towards the end if their careers. The games does change...culture changes...people get older and crustier...new blood is not a bad thing and SNY is smart to keep up what they are doing and should not feel obligated to do anything more. They have been classy in regards to the way they handled things and gave him a great tribute.

You have to check out this banter between Mike and Ted. It pretty much sums up what we've all been feeling. They were both spot on.

It looks like Joe Torre's usage of a starter as a reliever on off-days is a bit contagious.

Zambrano's gut tells him he's staying with the Cubbies.

The Royals picking up Dotel in the off-season was extremely smart because of the value he could have had if healthy at the trade deadline. He is throwing hard and should bring some decent back.

After Beltran bizarrely doubled off the first base bag I was feeling some positive mojo...then Brian Giles made an unbelievable catch on what I thought was a surefire double and possible triple for Wright. If the Mets pull this one out tonight, it will be a close one.

Mike Pelfrey had a rough second inning but was otherwise pretty tight. He gave up all three of his earned runs in the second and gave up three hits and three walks overall while striking out seven.

Bobby Parnell got roughed up for Binghamton and gave up five runs in three innings.

Toby Stoner was impressive for St. Lucie going 6.1 innings while giving up three hits, two earned runs, and two walks while striking out seven.

Some people think Beltran isn't healthy. Of course I have not spoken to him, but it certainly looks like he is. Last night he was running around the bases like he was fine and does not look uncomfortable swinging the bat. It just seems like it is just a really bad slump.

The Second Coming

When you look at Alex Rios, it is hard to not get reminded of Carlos Gomez. Gomez is listed at 6'4" and 195 pounds and Rios is listed at 6'5" and 194 pounds. Both are five tool players with long arms that generate some serious pop. They were both guys that put on shows during BP but had some issues carrying that pop after after the first pitch was thrown out. Gomez kind of swings out of his shoes while Rios is more smooth, but Rios is a much older and more advanced player at this point and Carlos should come into his own in time.

Their similarities go past their physical appearance as well. Through Rios' first four years of pro ball, he hit .293/.335/.401 in 556 games and 2,159 at-bats with 20 homers and 159 XBHs and he broke into the minors at 18 in the Pioneer League. Gomez broke in at 18 as well in the Appalachian League and has hit .279/.340/.401 in 1278 at-bats over 333 games. Gomez has 18 homers with 100 XBHs over that span. Gomez exhibited more pop through their younger years, but the big difference between the two of them was that Rios never saw higher than Advanced A-Ball at Dunedin in the Florida State League while Gomez was holding his own in AAA and getting a cup of coffee in the bigs and reinforcing people's minds that he is legit.

Rios played an entire year at 22 years old in the Eastern League before moving up to AAA to play for Syracuse at 23. He played 46 games before getting called up in 2004. He played well and flashed some extra base power but only hit one homerun. It wasn't until 2006 when Rios finally started silencing his critics. He started to hit for power while asserting himself as a force in the big leagues at 25 and posted a slid OPS of .865. Gomez is way ahead of that curve. His first complete year at AA occurred when he was 20 and might have been a candidate to take a starting spot in the bigs out of Spring Training '08 if not for his injury.

However, at this stage in his career, he needs at-bats and sitting out the rest of the year is not going to help his development. Jim Callis from Baseball America saw enough in Gomez from his stint with the Mets for him to believe there is a good shot he reaches that extremely high ceiling that many see in him. While his broken hamate threw a wrench in his plans, another year in the minors would probably prove to be extremely beneficial. With Alou's affordable option and Milledge on the team, there should be no reason to rush Carlos and he could provide some solid insurance while honing his skills. However, when Gomez comes up for good, think Alex Rios with more speed. He has the ability to be that good.

* * *

Jason Vargas had what I can only believe was his best start of the season in New Orleans' win over Nashville. Vargas went seven innings and gave up only two hits and two walks while allowing no runs and striking out seven.

Binghmaton got a measly three hits while Trenton smacked thirteen. Needless to say the B-Mets lost and not much is worth mentioning from the game.

St. Luce was beat by Clearwater, but good things happened for some bright prospects and isn't that more important? While on the topic of five tool outfielders, Sean Henry is becoming one of my favorite prospects in the Mets system and went deep for his tenth homer of the season. Though a singles hitter that doesn't walk and cannot field his position well is getting more attention, Henry is clearly the biggest story. In 86 games, he has knocked 32 extra base hits in a notorious pitcher's park and swiped thirteen bases while walking thirty times to only fifty one strikeouts. He has gotten better as he has moved up and he is a guy to keep on eye on.

Eighteen year old Deolis Guerra got the start for St. Lucie and went six innings while allowing five hits, two earned runs, and two walks while striking out two. While his 4.37 ERA and his 1-5 record may not look overly impressive, his 1.14 WHIP, .241 BAA, and 3.0 K/BB ratio tell a different story for an extremely young kid.

Nick Evans went 2 for 4 in the game as well and has been impressive as well putting up nearly identical numbers minus the steals as Henry.

The Sand Gnats pulled out a close win against Savannah and won 1-0.

F-Mart!

After making a mortal enemy in myself, Keith Law is trying to kiss an make up. He goes over his top 25 prospects and talks about a few Mets favorably.

6. Fernando Martinez, CF, Mets

Martinez doesn't look or carry himself like a teenager, and he had no trouble against Double-A and Triple-A pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. A plus glove in center, as well.

Six? That's tasty. Really tasty. As great as that is, Law does not stop there.

9. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates

Jumped two levels to Double-A at age 19 and didn't miss a beat. Legit center fielder who can fly, already hitting for plus power and controlling the strike zone, too. He and Martinez are the two early leaders for the No. 1 spot next winter.

I'm not sure Martinez can overtake McCutchen, but it will be interesting to see if he can. If Martinez is healthy, he certainly will make a push to, but McCutchen will be doing it a higher level. Of course if you want to factor in that Martinez is two years younger, you could certainly make a case for Martinez being the better prospect, but Andrew is as good as they come. The Pirates fans should be very excited for a future outfield of Bay, Nady, and McCutchen. Not that Nady is anything tremendous, but given the star power of the other two, he will compliment them just fine. Also, if some of the Pirates young arms start panning out (which in itself is a big problem as there seems to be a major breakdown somewhere in their coaching of young pitchers because they have looked clueless with all of those solid arms) and with the addition of LaRoche, there might actually be light at the end of Pittsburgh's tunnel. Back to the Mets...

Phil Humber, RHP, and Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets

Pelfrey misses the cut until he has a breaking ball he can really use, while Humber's continued arm troubles (he was shut down again in the AFL, supposedly as a precautionary measure) keep him off the list.

Sweetness. As we have all heard, the rumor is that Pelfrey's slider is much better than his curveball so hopefully that is taken care of and can we stop with the Humber and his continued arm trouble nonsense? I mean, the guy had a clean bill of health coming out of college and that was partially the reason why the Mets drafted him. Prior to his Tommy John surgery, he was fine and since coming back he has been effective. If a guy has not pitched in a year, it is understandable that he would have arm soreness and frankly it was surprising that the Mets would even let him pitch in the Arizona Fall League given what he just went through.

Given the fact that Lastings Milledge is ineligible to be a true prospect anymore, he is not on the list. However, he’s still a rookie in my heart and gives the Mets four top 50 talents that are just about ready to go. When it comes to compliments about players within my favorite organization, I'll take them no matter who they are from.

* * *

The way coffee was meant to be served.

“We had a much better atmosphere, good coffee. Unfortunately, they ran around half-naked and we didn’t,” said Cambroto, who finally threw in the towel last spring and sold his business to his rival, the operator of six Cowgirls Espresso stands in the Seattle suburbs.

While not quite a hostile takeover (nothing involving boobs could be considered hostile), I sure hope John Cambroto learned a valuable lesson about business and keeps up with the market trends in his next business venture. I can only hope that this trend makes its way East.

From Benny...

The new Dice-K? Yu Darvish looks like he has solid stuff, but he is looooong way from joining the bigs as he has only played two years professionaly and is 20 years old. Japan probably does not like being a farm system for the bigs too much, but there does not seem to be anyway to stem the exodus of their biggest and brightest. Bobby V's idea of a Japanese division of the big leagues would certainly help, but that has bigger benefits for Japan than the US. Besides, that idea has way too many issues with the largest issue being logistics.

Some food for thought though, I truly wonder what a Japanese team compromised solely of Japanese players with Johima, Ichrio, the real Matsui, Iguchi, D-Mat, and other top flight players could do. Ultimately, I do think their pitching and lack of power would be their downfall, but they should be very competitive.

This was one surprising tidbit to say the least.

J.P. Ricciardi says he was playing around on his laptop computer the other day. Saw Victor Zambrano's name. Saw he was available.

"I didn't know what his status was, to be honest," the Toronto Blue Jays general manager said Wednesday, after signing Zambrano to a minor league contract that will pay the 31-year-old righthander a base salary of $500,000 (all figures U.S.), with various incentives built both around starts and relief appearances.

Isn't that supposed to be his job? Or at least someone's job in the organization to let him know the availability of a guy who had success in the AL East before?

Here is some more fuel to throw on my anti-McGwire for the Hall of Fame campaign.

500 Home Run guys: There is a chance that five players will join the 500-Home Run Club this year, which would be a first. Frank Thomas is 13 away. Jim Thome is 28 away. Manny Ramirez is 30 away. Alex Rodriguez is 36 away. Gary Sheffield needs 45. This used to be an exclusive little club. Now it's up to 20. Soon, the 20 will become 25. In another 15 years, there are going to be 35. Get used to the growth.

Frankly, McGwire's power numbers are not awe inspiring when you take into account the time they came in. Hitting 500+ homers means little anymore when talking about getting into the Hall of Fame. If you plan to retire and have 500 and something homers while not factoring in on defense, you better have been a Manny Ramirez-type hitter who did it all and was an all around masher and McGwire just does not fit that bill. That's not to say he wasn't a fearsome hitter and one of the better big leaguers of his day, but he just is not a Hall of Famer. You cannot do anything about the guys that got into the Hall of Fame and do not really deserve to be there, but you can certainly rectify this going forward and not letting Mark McGwire in would be a step in the right direction.

Check out the video on this one. This kid is enormous and double the size of a normal baby. Scary stuff...

I've been a busy boy lately and have not had time to post and I'm off to Denver until next Thursday. This is probably it for a week, but thankfully nothing is going on so I'm not really missing anything. The biggest news item going around here is that Paul LoDuca wants a contract extension. LoDuca had his best season in years and is unlikely to replicate it in ‘07. The only problem that I see is the number of available catchers over the next few years is rather thin and the Mets do not have much in their organization outside of Francisco Pena. Losing Jesus Flores was a big loss for the Mets since he was relatively close and that basically means the Mets will likely have to bring LoDuca back for two more years. I do not think that it is a big deal as he'll probably be on the 120 games-a-year plan and he should be fine since the Mets will not be relying on him for Piazza-like production. He really isn't nearly as bad as Piazza defensively despite the fact everyone tries to steal on him and will not be much of strain if he is batting at the bottom of the order.