A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Counterintuitive? Yes. Beneficial? Perhaps.

The Mets have Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, and Fernando Martinez relatively close to the bigs in the outfield and Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey closet to the bigs on the mound with Maine and Oliver Perez already in the fold. The Mets have the depth to make a deal, but you could make the argument that trading any of those guys for the marginal upgrades available on the market would be a mistake (you would be 100% right), but what about a huge upgrade?

The Astros are not exactly in what I would call an enviable position. They had a minor league system ranked in the bottom third of all big league teams before Hunter Pence broke onto the scene. Next year, they could easily be be one of the three worst systems when you consider Matt Albers should be with the big club to stay and he is not even that impressive of a prospect. They are currently sitting at 13.5 games out and 1.5 games back from being tied for the worst record in the National League and three games back from having the worst record in the Major Leagues.

If you were the Astros, what would you do? We have seen the mistakes that teams make when trying to win while a certain player is around. The San Francisco Giants have made a series of horrible choices solely based around trying to win while the had Barry Bonds on the team with some other usable parts. The Astros, while in horrible shape, do have some positives going for them in Dan Wheeler, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, and Brad Lidge with another player in Mark Loretta who could add value by fetching a B- prospect in a trade.

Wheeler is under control through '08, Pence through '12, Lee through '12, Oswalt through '11, Berkman through '10, and Lidge through '08. There is a core there, but not much else. On the farm there are some decent arms that are mid to back end guys at best and the fact they did not have a draft pick until the 111st pick in the third round of this year's draft certainly does not help things. They certainly do not have the ability to buy what they need and do have enough talent to not give up. By trading Oswalt, you free up money to buy some players and get three or four players who could bring a lot to the ballclub for under $2 million.

What to do? Would you trade Oswalt if you were the Astros for two or three top 100 talents and a guy like Aaron Heilman? I'm not even sure if I would do a Milledge, Humber, and Pelfrey much less a Milledge, Heilman, Humber, and Pelfrey deal and I do not know if either team could even come to an agreement for what they would be giving up. Would three players even be enough considering the perennial Cy Young contender is inked for another four seasons after '07 at an affordable price? The Astros are far away from competing and are in dire need of getting some young impact players in their organization. If they could bring in three guys who could contribute on the big league level and at least two with possible All-Star talent, would they be better off?

Of course I do not think the Astros would do something like this, but why not? Why not a blockbuster like that? While it would certainly not be popular, it would be hard to argue that it would not be in the best interest of the team. I understand guys like Oswalt do not grow on trees and it would be impossible for the Astros to replace a pitcher like that for those dollars figures, but sometimes you have to trade your most valuable commodity to maximize your return.

On the Mets side of things, losing two or three promising prospects is softened by the fact Oswalt and Maine are under control through 2011 and they can still bring back Perez giving them three young and talented starters to form the base of their rotation. There are quite a few teams that could help themselves out with deals like this, but they never do for fear that no one would turn up the park (i.e. Bay in Pittsburgh). With the rising cost of free agents, teams are less willing to part with big time prospects for even a year and a half of a top tier player. They want young people that are under control for a long time. The landscape the game has changed quite a bit and so should the way teams look to improve their long term outlook.

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  • In contrast to reports yesterday that Alou could be back in a week or two, it looks like he could make a return while the Mets in LA later this week.

    Also within the article it seems that there is a possibility of Duaner Sanchez returning late next month. I'm not sure what can reasonably be expected of him, but it is worth nothing.

  • We tried Heath...we tried.

    Reliever Heath Bell, who posted a 5.11 ERA for the Mets last year and was dealt to the Padres in the Ben Johnson offseason deal, has been terrific for San Diego (2.26 ERA going into last night). Said Bell, "I felt like if I just got the chance to pitch in a good role on the [Mets] that I could do what I'm doing now."

    Bell got a lot of support from a lot of us and I'm guessing the Mets would like a mulligan on that deal.

  • Lastings continues to have his head attached to his body and the common sense flowing from his brain to the rest of his body. I don't get why people are still so negative in regards to Lastings, but whatever. He speaks like a kid who knows his time will come and he will perform what that time does come.

  • The Mets are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten and I cannot argue their removal at this point. They do not look like a top team in any facet and are riding purely on how well they played last season and how good people think they should be. Now, the goodwill should be drying up and they are going to have to perform to get some respect.

  • Bob Raissman and his stilly moustache would like more TV time for Ralph Kiner. Similarly to players feeling that teams are obligated to play them forever, why must the guys in the booth have die or be near death to get removed? Ralph Kiner has been great over the years but was in the booth for a few years more than he should have been. He gets a weekly spot now and it is nice and enjoyable, but entire games? I think we can all agree that Keith, Ron, and Gary are lightyears better than Murphy and Kiner towards the end if their careers. The games does change...culture changes...people get older and crustier...new blood is not a bad thing and SNY is smart to keep up what they are doing and should not feel obligated to do anything more. They have been classy in regards to the way they handled things and gave him a great tribute.

  • You have to check out this banter between Mike and Ted. It pretty much sums up what we've all been feeling. They were both spot on.

  • It looks like Joe Torre's usage of a starter as a reliever on off-days is a bit contagious.

  • Zambrano's gut tells him he's staying with the Cubbies.

  • The Royals picking up Dotel in the off-season was extremely smart because of the value he could have had if healthy at the trade deadline. He is throwing hard and should bring some decent back.

  • After Beltran bizarrely doubled off the first base bag I was feeling some positive mojo...then Brian Giles made an unbelievable catch on what I thought was a surefire double and possible triple for Wright. If the Mets pull this one out tonight, it will be a close one.

  • Mike Pelfrey had a rough second inning but was otherwise pretty tight. He gave up all three of his earned runs in the second and gave up three hits and three walks overall while striking out seven.

  • Bobby Parnell got roughed up for Binghamton and gave up five runs in three innings.

  • Toby Stoner was impressive for St. Lucie going 6.1 innings while giving up three hits, two earned runs, and two walks while striking out seven.


  • Some people think Beltran isn't healthy. Of course I have not spoken to him, but it certainly looks like he is. Last night he was running around the bases like he was fine and does not look uncomfortable swinging the bat. It just seems like it is just a really bad slump.

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