Pondering Some Ponderances

Scott (Philadelphia): If you did have an east coast bias, wouldn't you at least answer one question about the Phillies? Will Drabek recover from TJ?

Jim Callis: (2:51 PM ET ) I forgot to mention the Phillies . . . No reason Kyle Drabek can't recover, because the TJ track record is good. But he is kind of flaky and still has to prove that his makeup won't be an issue. It's a bigger setback for him than most, I think, because he hadn't had much pro success and probably won't get his killer curve back until 2009 or even 2010.

I have no intentions of speaking about Kyle Drabek specifically, though it does sting a bit that the Phillies picked him up with a Mets pick that was surrendered to them, but this 'killer curve' that Jim speaks of brings someone to mind. Drabek actually got his surgery around the same time of year that Humber got his as well.

Presumably, Drabek will be back next year for some obligatory innings before he gears back up for his first full pro-season in a similar fashion to Humber. Though Drabek has more overall talent and a more electric arm, both Humber and Drabek both used a devastating curveball as their out pitch.

Phil still was 10th in ERA in the PCL. His 4.27 ERA does not look pretty, but only four guys actuall managed to post a sub 4.00 ERA versus twleve in the IL. Maybe that speaks more lack of good pitchers than just pitching in the PCL, but I tend to think it is the latter. He also finished first in WHIP with 1.24, which would be tied for 6th in the IL, 5th in strikeouts with 120, which would be good for 8th in the IL, a 7.77 k/9 and a 2.72 k/bb ratio, and had a respectable .244 BAA.

If you really want to start to cherry picking numbers to sway your pro-Humber argument, you can point to his Post All-Star ERA of 3.80 with a .183 BAA and a 8.22 k/9. Of course he walked over four guys per nine, but things happen. Most people these days classify him as a throw in or a non-essential piece. However, I beg to differ. How quickly everyone forgets the kid had surgery on his money maker and had his first full season back in 2007.

His curveball lost a little? Probably, but as Callis states above, it might take another extra season to fully get back into sync. Humber's 2007 numbers were better than people think and he also deserves to get some extra time before people pass judgement. If he is indeed a thrown in, I would be more than happy to see the Mets swap him out for another throw in because I think he can be a solid big leaguer in 2008.

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From Mr. Sickels:

Robert Parnell, RHP, New York Mets
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-3 WT: 180 DOB: September 8, 1984

A ninth round pick out of Charleston Southern in 2005, Parnell has a 90-95 MPH sinking fastball, and a slider which is often overpowering. He gets plenty of ground balls, but his changeup is below average, and Double-A hitter exposed this weakness. His track record, in college and as a pro, is erratic. He clearly has the arm strength to succeed, but is still making the transition from thrower to pitcher. He's a least a year away from being ready for the majors. My guess is that he'll have to move to the bullpen to succeed in the majors. Grade C.

Good fastball and an overpowering slider? I'd take that out of the bullpen. I am not sold on him as a starter despite him being many fans sleeper candidate year in and year out. As Johnny stated above, he has been rather inconsistent and that wreaks reliever to me.

I know I should never post anything on this topic again, but I cannot help it.

But for the Mets to actually land Santana it will take at least two significant hurdles being cleared, and that doesn't include having to negotiate a long-term contract with him. First, the Mets have to agree to send over a package of many real prospects, probably five or more, which would considerably deplete their minor-league resources. Second, the Red Sox and Yankees, who are both better stocked at the upper reaches of the minors, have to continue to take a less then enthusiastic approach in the competition to add one of the game's top two pitchers.

Five or more? No thanks. Why no thanks? I've been saying it for weeks and weeks.

The current prospects on the table appear to be outfielder Carlos Gomez plus pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. None of these players is likely to make the immediate impact of a Lester, an Ellsbury or a Hughes. But some scouts believe the overall talent will be greater in a Mets package, and that they should work it out with the team from Queens.

To review...Yankees package is Hughes and spare parts. Essentially, it is for Hughes. How that would be enough is perplexing to say the least even with his skill set, but the Twins appear fixated on him. The Red Sox packages feature closer to the bigs help and very good talent top to bottom, which is certainly appealing. The Mets package has talent top to bottom as well and is more risky, but possibly the best.

It appears the Twins may favor Gomez over Fernando Martinez because Gomez can play center field, a need since the defection of fan favorite Torii Hunter to the Angels, and may actually like Humber as much as the Mets' more ballyhooed pitching prospect Mike Pelfrey, whose stock waned last season. In any case the Twins aren't as desperate for immediate pitching help as some might imagine, since they are well-stocked with minor-league arms.

Good thing on Gomez and why the fuck not in regards to Humber? Coincidently, I gave him some time in my little corner of the internet as this came out to explain why I think they way I do.

Also from the above link:

"Kennedy's as good as Hughes," opines one scout, "They shouldn't do that." Still, some are surprised at the restraint being showed by the Yankees, considering the threat of Santana going to the rival Red Sox. "If Boston gets Santana, they lock up the division the next three or four years," one competing executive says.

That deserves one of these. Kennedy as good as Hughes? I like Kennedy just as much as the next baseball fan, but this would be the first time I heard this one. Even if you are not as high on Hughes as other people, Kennedy just does not have the stuff that Hughes has.

Payroll stuff. The Mets might be #4, but there are plenty of teams that cracked the $100,000,000 barrier. 'Tis crazy times we live in. In fact, half of the MLB teams were over the $90,000,000 threshold and everyone is till making cash.

This also begs the question, can the Indians afford CC? The short answer is yes, but I am going to give you the long answer. They could give him the contract he is looking for. Afterall, the Indians laid out over $100,000,000 on players before. Sure, they lost $4,0000,000 in that season, but baseball is much stronger these days. It also cannot be glazed over that they made $34,600,000 in operating profits this season with a $70m payroll. Is it a risk based on the amount of payroll he would be taking? Yes, but they could certainly handle it.

He roughly made $9m in 2007 and 2007 so the difference would be $12m to $15m or so to their current payroll if you just factor in his salary alone. That would bring them up to the mid $80s if everything remains the same and gives them another $20m to play around with for other players. It could be argued that it is not smart, but he would also be a very tradeable commodity providing he does not get hurt, which is the big risk here isn't it?

Either way, the Indians could do it, but the question remains if they should. Let us not forget that the Indians have built up a warchest over the past few years. Profits of $15m, $19m, $17m, $4, $10m, $27m, $35m, and $25m since '98 compared to only two years and $5m of losses adds up to a lot of money. That is $137m in total before you even consider what they should rake in this season. Of course they need a lot of that money for other things, but they have cash because they are one of the best run franschises in the bigs. Check out their Forbes team valuation:



I am not one of those people who thinks that the owner, if rich enough, should pony up cash to buy those special players. That just does not jive with me and that is not fair to ask of them. However, a lot of these teams have a ton of money from past seasons and have the ability to dig deep. It all comes down to whether or not they want to and for a player as special as CC, they might have too.

Wright says the Mets do not need Santana.

"I agree 100 percent with Omar [Minaya]," Wright said. "If it's the right price, 30 teams would want him. You don't want to give up the farm system. I've faced Johan. I know how nasty he is."

This article says Wright wants him despite the above caveat.

Look, I know it is a slow news day, but can we not ask Sugar Pants inane questions that we know the answers too? I feel the pain too as I have NOTHING to write about either.

Predictably, I like the pickup of Rincon. I am still angry at may parents because I am not lefty.

My teeth are starting to hurt.

"He's a guy I would go to battle for any day, but when you're talking about steroids, you're talking about something that's illegal," Wright said of Lo Duca. "Steroids are something I could never - no matter how close of a friend it is - condone."

I am going to apolgize to Wright again for thinking Reyes took over this franchise. I will never, ever make that mistake again.

Strapping A Set On

It is easy to sit here and write these things, but sometimes the GMs need to step up and do the right thing for their club even if it is unpopular. It was mentioned that the Twins might be better off trading Nathan and retooling a bit for the next few seasons and bolstering their team long term. However, that would be a ballsy move and not very popular. The Twins need some payroll flexibility for Torii Hunter and he seems like a more integral part to this team than Joe Nathan. If the Mets were going to give up Humber for Chad Cordero, wouldn't one assume he would have brought in a big return?

The Mets need a right handed set up man and failed to acquire one. They have talent close to the bigs so Omar could promote Phil Humber and see how he performs. However, he is inexperienced and though Wainright and Miguel Cabrera should be a shining example of how some guys can step up and play a tremendously large part to a team's success, it would be a ballsy move which is why Omar tried to trade him for Chad Cordero. Instead of rolling the dice with the unknown, he went for the known.

The Yankees made a minor deal, but did not get their bullpen arm and have moved Joba into the AAA bullpen and are slated to give Joba a big chance with Proctor off the team. It is a ballsy move to trade a bullpen arm that logged a ton of innings for you over the last years when you need a reliever. It is especially ballsy when you trade him for a guy who does not exactly fit onto the current team nor pitches and roll with the rookie, but you have to respect the move.

You look at the Rangers and they got a pretty good return for Gagne and Teixeira and you have to wonder why other GMs do not try and emulate that. The Astros for example should probably make a few deals of that ilk and trade big parts of their team as should the Twins and many other teams, but GMs are perhaps too worried about public opinion at times and need to operate with some blinders on as it relates to the media and the fanbase. Taking a step backwards is not necessarily a bad thing and most of these guys try and make every move a step forward, which is impossible.

While Humber may not be a household name and not far removed from Tommy John surgery, he might be able to pitch 95 to 97 mph in a one inning stints and provide that bullpen spark that Joe Smith did. Weren't the Mets brass still buzzing about his relief appearance last fall against the Braves during Spring Training? I am really happy that the trade did not go through and I'm not sure of the logistics of the entire deal since my internet sucks, but it seems as if the Mets were not willing to throw in another player, which seems about right. Why should they? If Bowden was asking for too much again, that should just be another reason he should be removed from his position because he lost a potential impact starter which is something the Nats need badly.

The best thing the Mets could do right now is take the Yankees lead and look to within to solve their problems. Right now, the Mets have holes and one is starting to become a glaring hole. Their bullpen has taken a step back, but there are pieces to work with and it is vital to balance the future while tending to them.

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I really enjoyed the mega chat that ESPN had all day and they should do the tag team chats more often.

Jonah Keri: I liked the Luis castillo deal btw. Yes, Gotay was hitting .350, but his track record didn't suggest that it would continue. Castillo's a solid OBP guy who's a very good defender. Mets pitchers have to be loving Castillo-Reyes-Beltran up the middle, assuming all 3 are healthy. The Mets already catch more balls hit into play than any other team in baseball.

Keith Law seems to think he has lost a step and he probably has. He is older and not quite as quick, but he is sure handed and just came off a 130 game errorless streak. If the Mets wanted defense, they surely got it. If they run with Milledge out in right, the Mets will have some spectacular defense out there with the exception of Delgado and Moises.

Matt (Philadelphia): How much of an upgrade was Luis Castillo for the Mets? I think it would be interesting to get your take on the trade and then compare Joe Morgan's answer when he chats.

SportsNation Jonah Keri: (11:09 AM ET ) Castillo's defense is the clincher here. I don't think Gotay's close to a .350 hitter, but I think he'd have a shot at stayiong competitive with Castillo offensively, with Castillo a better OBP threat and Gotay with more pop. I call this a minor in-season upgrade, with a big-time bonus of compensatory draft picks at year's end if they let him walk to free agency.

If the Mets give Castillo some insane 3-year, $21 million contract, then I don't like the trade nearly as much.

Even if Castillo is a Type B free agent, which he should be, the Mets get a high enough draft pick they could bring in a player much better than Butera or Martin. Besides, we have no idea if Gotay will be sharing time, which is possible. I suspect we will see plenty of him as he has deserved it. However, after the season, I agree with Keri here and signing him to a multi-year deal would seem to be a mistake.

Jack (NY): Have you heard anything about Phil Humber for Chad Cordero?

SportsNation Jonah Keri: (2:13 PM ET ) That would be a very dumb trade for the Mets. Heck, they could promote Humber to the rotation, slot Jorge Sosa in the pen, and get a similar effect, without losing a guy six years from free agency who could be an above-average SP.

Again, just repeating what most of us already think and I want to send the Met front office their quotes of them gushing about Humber's relief appearance against the Braves. What can it hurt? Seriously, at this point, there needs to be some action taken and sooner rather than later and if not Humber, Bostick has been lights out of late. Try him. Try anything.

You could certainly make the argument that Willie indirectly killed the poor mom in this article. Not that we all haven't been there before with our mom in regards to getting mad at them, but stabbing them in the head and beating them to death? Randolph's curious moves are enough to drive anyone to murder at times and thankfully I was not watching the game. Unfortunately for Maria Fischman, Michael Anthony was. It could have easily been my name in those papers.

In all seriousness, the guy obviously had issues. But I truly wonder if of the most controversial series of moves by Willie all season set Michael Anthony off the way Kramer set off Steve Gendason, who happened to be a ex-baseball player in the Seinfeld episode, by hitting him with a penalty stroke for picking up his golf ball and cleaning it.

Willie Randolph is still hesitant to bat Milledge higher in the order. What is really bizarre is that Milledge was batting above Green for a bit and now he was inexplicably dropped back to 8th. Simple reasoning would seem to support the theory that your better hitters should get more at-bats. Call me crazy, but I do subscribe to that theory and would think most managers would. Yost certainly believes in that theory has he plugged Braun into the third spot before he compiled up insane numbers and there is no real good reason to not trust young guys. Their skill should dictate where and when they should play and not their age as I've said here a bunch of times. Of course as I wrote this, Milledge had a bad game at the plate, but those will happen. Overall, I'd still bet on Milledge outperforming Green the rest of the way out and I would still prefer to see Milledge in the two hole for now until Beltran comes back.

Set your DVRs. With Pedro getting his first rehab start down in St. Lucie and the Mets airing it on SNY, things are about to get interesting.

Thoughts on last night's game:

• Glavine didn't have his best stuff, but he gutted it out. When he guts out a game like that for his 300th win, you simply cannot let that game slip away from him.
  
• When Castillo was up with the bases loaded and one out, I had no faith in him and I would have really preferred Gotay there. Of course Castillo will meaningfully contribute, but he is primarily here for defense and small ball, but not RBIs as evidenced by his 18 RBIs as a full time starter in Minneapolis. But as I stated yesterday, I'm not sure about him batting second. If you wanted him for defense, great, but why is pop a bad thing out of the two hole?
  
• Aaron Heilman has been a stud during the last month or so, but the bullpen has been a big letdown of late even if the numbers do not show it.
  
• Lastings can play centerfield with the best of them and he looks just great out there and he can definitely go after it. That catch to end the 9th with the bases loaded was nothing short of amazing.
  
• Sosa coming out of the bullpen would seem to point to Pelfrey getting another start on Thursday. The good thing is that Sosa showed something on the mound out of the bullpen.
  
• David Wright was absolutely huge in last night's game. He was on base all the time and all around just proving how smart of a baseball player he is.
• As frustrating as the game was, it was a pleasure to watch. So far it's a tie score heading into the 12th and with the Braves having chalked up a win already, they need to finish this off, extend their lead over the Phillies, and keep the Braves at bay. The Braves have just picked up two huge pieces and they probably are feeling pretty good about themselves. It is imperative that they do not let them get a chance to feel really good about themselves by picking up a few quick games in the standings.

The New Top Ten

1) Carlos Gomez
Gomez jumps to the top of the list with his admirable play on the big league level. The numbers will not tell the entire story of his time with the Mets as you had to see him play. His defense was great, his arm was filthy, his speed is Reyes-esque, and his bat looked lively. He seems to swing for the fences at all times, but he looks like the real deal. He also showed that he needs more work and with his lost time this year he needs more time in the minors to start '08. However, there is no reason to think he will not be ready for the bigs in late '08 or be there in case Alou goes down (the Mets will pick up Alou's option).

2) Fernando Martinez
It is still a lot of projection and upside with him and though some are disappointed in Fernando so far, he is doing impressive things at his age. In his first year in pro ball he did a lot of things right and followed that up with a great showing in the Arizona Fall League. He started off hitting well in AA, though with little power, and went down with another freakish injury. His biggest problem is all the time he has sat out with annoying injuries hampering his much needed development time. While the Mets wanted him ready for 2009, it would be a more conservative estimate and probably beneficial to target him for a spot in the bigs in 2010.

3) Phil Humber
Phil has done well for his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He is on the leaderboard in plenty of categories in the PCL and has kept his walks down. A 3.25 K/BB ratio and a 1.13 WHIP is very encouraging and a power pitcher with a 12-6 curveball would provide a nice change of pace in the Mets rotation. Of course there are no spots for him this year, but he should have an opportunity to fight for a rotation spot in 2008.

4) Deolis Guerra
Like Fernando, it is a lot of projection with him. He has done some really impressive things at his age in pro ball and has been reported to pick up some velocity on his fastball this year. He already has the makings for a plus change and if he really did pick up some velocity on his fastball, he has the ingredients to be a front line starter. He just needs to get his curveball to be a usable pitch to keep hitters honest. Deolis is pitching in St. Lucie at this point and with Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey ahead of him, there is no reason to rush him. At this pace he should be ready for big league action in 2010.

5) Mike Pelfrey
I've spoke about him a lot so here so it will not kill anyone to read some more. Whether it is mental or mechanical is anyone's guess, but he is struggling. His secondary stuff is horrible despite him breaking out some really impressive changes and sliders occasionally and his command is not pretty. He seems to nibble too much and runs up high pitch counts instead of attacking hitters. He continually gets himself behind hitters and therefore into trouble. If he can get his change-up, which is more advanced than his slider, to click and stop nibbling, he can probably start getting big league hitters out. Until then, he is useless as a starter.

6) Francisco Pena
Upside, upside, upside. Until he proves he is a bust, he will be a highly regarded as a prospect. He has a good bat, good catching skills, and big league blood lines. His stats might not look good, but few catchers jump into full season ball at his age and that is just an impressive feat in itself and he should most likely repeat Savannah again next year. After next season, he should be moving up one level per year with 2012 as his target for being in the bigs and he will still be at the ripe old age of 22 for the entire regular season of baseball.

7) Kevin Mulvey
He is the only guy on the B-Mets with an ERA under 4.00 and has certainly passed his first test of his first full pro season. He owns four solid pitches with a low 90's fastball. He is never going to make scouts drool or make his way to the top of any prospects lists, but he has the ability and he has the repertoire to succeed at the highest level. He is precisely the type of pitcher that Shea (and hopefully Citi Field) will make look better than they probably are and I have high hopes for Mulvey. He should be ready by mid 2008 should the need arise.

8) Jon Niese
The hard throwing lefty is having rough season statistically. He is getting hit pretty hard in a pitcher's league but the big positive here is that he drastically cut down on his walks, which was his biggest issue in the past. His strikeouts are down substantially, but that could be a product of him throwing more strikes and pitching to contact rather than striking batters out. He should still be moving up to AA next season despite a less than stellar ERA and WHIP as long as he does not implode during the final weeks of the season. He is still 20 years old and a bit unrefined so I would not expect him to be ready for the bigs until mid 2010. Luckily the Mets have plenty of depth so he should not get rushed and should have all the development time he needs.

Here is where it gets dicey. If Eddie Kunz and Brandon Efferson had signed, I would have slid them right into the top ten with Kunz sliding into the 8th spot and Efferson sliding into the tenth spot. Though they will most likely sign, they have not yet and I have to play by the rules.

9) Scott Moviel
Scott was the second round pick this year for the Mets and was signed for $414,000. He is gigantic and he has an arm with big potential. He is pitching in the Gulf Coast League and the early returns are good. He has a 2.12 ERA, .219 BAA, and fourteen K's in seventeen innings. He has as much upside as any pitcher in the system and could move up quickly. If all goes well this season he could find himself pitching for Savannah next year in his first full season of pro ball. His target would be 2012 if everything goes well and he continues to develop.

10) Nathan Vineyard
Big Nate was the Mets second pick in the compensation round of the 2007 draft and signed for nearly $700,000. He is a lefty who throws in the low 90's with a nice slider. He has gotten knocked around so far giving up twelve runs in 13.1 innings but he also managed to strike out sixteen batters so far. He is getting hit to hard and giving up to many fly balls, but it is still early and it would be silly to judge any rookie in pro ball on such a small body of work. His target would be 2012 barring injury and could be moved through the system alongside fellow draftee Scott Moviel.

The issue I see with the top ten is there are three teenage pitchers, another twenty year old pitcher, and two college ones who have not pitched as well as many would have expected. With young arms, there is so much that can go wrong and so many things that can derail their progress. Also, it is rare that you can look at a guy and predict greatness like in the cases of Felix Hernandez or Homer Bailey (who can still have many things go wrong) so you never know what you truly have until they get closer to the bigs. When four pitchers are at High-A or lower, there is a ton of projection and a ton that could go wrong.

Throw on top of that Fernando, who has a lot more developing to do, Francisco having a ton of work to put in and a hard road to the bigs, Pelfrey and Humber not meeting expectations, and Gomez still being raw and you have a potentially explosive top ten. The likely scenario is a few make an impact with the downside being everyone burning out and the Mets getting a few middle relievers and corner outfielders who do not hit enough to keep their day jobs. However, the upside there is pretty immense as well. I would prefer some more sure bets, but the Mets youth and cash on the big league level certainly make things more palatable.

Other Noteables:
Dustin Martin, Sean Henry, Josh Stinson, Mike Carp, Jose Castro, Bobby Parnell, Tobi Stoner, and Brahiam Maldanado.

Mike Carp had been injured this season, but after a solid spring with the big club, expectations were high for him to make the next jump. That never happened and though he has not been horrible, he drops from the top ten it wasn't all that hard of a decision. His fifteen walks and sixteen extra base hits in 54 games in a hitter's league is certainly disheartening for Carp fans. Not to add fuel onto the fire, but he's hitting .140/.173/.140 line against lefties.

Martin, Henry, and Maldonado are solid and have been impressive at times, but I'll go with the young arms over guys who are slightly old for their leagues any day of the week. That being said, I do like them and there is value there. Henry is the best of the group and his athleticism is well known, but he needs to continue to add some pop and follow up his solid year in St. Lucie with a slightly better year in Binghamton to take that next step.

Bobby Parnell gained some velocity and is not too far behind Mulvey, but 78 baserunners in the FSL at 22 is nothing amazing. Parnell would have been #10 if Vineyard or Moviel did not sign, but they did and young unknowns with good arms and higher ceilings take precedent. Parnell still could be a #4 or #5 in the bigs if he keeps progressing, but should ultimately end up in the bullpen.

I'm still not sold on Castro. Too many singles...too little walks...too small...too many errors. He is 20 and leading the FSL in batting average so that does count for something, but he would have been in the #11 through #15 range for me and that is more of a reflection of a system that is not very deep more than anything.

Tobi Stoner is a somewhat of a cult hero amongst Met fans, but he's 22 and not doing anything special in the FSL. He has decent stuff but really is more of a middle relief prospect. He would be in the #15 to #20 range.

Josh Stinson is a decent prospect with a good sinker, but has not translated his ability into results.

Overall the Mets system is pretty much what it has been since 2003. It has some potential impact players with little depth behind them. That seems to be the Mets thing these days and although the system does have a bit more depth that it has had, it is all the difference from them being a top ten system and a bottom fifteen system. One thing that is curious is the Mets lack of Latin American signings.

Is there a dearth of talent out there? There has to be someone out there and with the Mets not exactly spending big in the past two drafts, holding steady on big league payroll, greatly increasing attendence, and their own network, it would make sense that they would be out there and active bringing in the top international talent as they did with Fernando and Deolis.

* * *

More prospect talk....Benny and Danny checked in with their thoughts on Pelfrey.

You know how Peterson preaches location and with some pitchers he tells them to take off a few mph for some location?
Well Pelfrey still has shitty location so maybe he should just throw as hard he can, taking off a few mph obviously isn't helping.
Cause I mean c'mon, throwing 92 mph just isn't that special. I'm VERY dissapointed in Pelfrey and I'm a very patient guy.

Pelfrey's fastball just has not been too special to this point which is part of the problem. He needs two very good secondary pitches to supplant his fastball whereas many said he just needs passable secondary stuff because his fastball was that good. He was supposed to throw 94 mph consistently and up to 97 while keeping it up in late innings. Now he is down to 92 to 94 mph and touching 95 mph. Could taking off a couple of notches on his fastball affect the movement?

The Mets have completely screwed up Pelfrey. They did two things to him:

(1) They flew him through the minor leagues before he had even mastered a decent offspeed pitch.

(2) Peterson tried to turn Pelfrey into a sinker-balling, groundball inducing machine, by asking him to take a couple of miles off his fastball and pound the bottom of the zone with sinkers. And oh yeah, even though that is not how you have ever pitched in your life, learn how to do that at the major league level.

It's nearly a crime the way they have mishandled Pelfrey. The worst thing the Mets could do is trade him now that they have submarined his value. The prudent thing to do is slow down and allow him to develop this year at AAA, and stop yanking him up and down, and certainly don't move him to the pen.

Be very wary of giving up on young pitchers. That's why I actually sort of liked what Pelfrey did when he came back to the bigs this last time. He was letting the fastball go at 95-97 and getting more swings and misses with it. The problem is, this is not Peterson's philosophy and they are going to butt heads on Pelfrey's approach. Pelfrey wants to be a power guy and Peterson stresses efficiency. It's not a good mix.

Pelfrey will thrive is he is traded somewhere and gets with a pitching coach that can exploit his strengths. I like Peterson a lot but he is screwing Pelfrey up.

Seems like what the Pirates did to Perez in a way. His fastball will induce groundballs, but that does not mean he should be confused with a sinker-ball pitcher who's job is to do only that and pitch to contact. He needs to simply miss more bats and worry less about groundballs since he doesn't have sinker per se, but a fastball with heavy sink. There is a big difference between what he throws and what Lowe and Webb throw.

Genius or stupid? You decide....

"I said to Jerry [bench coach Jerry Manuel], 'He's going to get a hit here. He's going to come through and do it for his dad.' I get those feelings sometimes--and sure enough, the next pitch he got a hit on. So I'm happy for him because he's been in Triple-A and he's been around a while."
--Mets manager Willie Randolph on Chip Ambres' game-winning hit.

Alou will be back tomorrow.

"I think my presence will help there," Alou said. "I think my bat will help in the lineup. I know I am not 100 per cent there yet, it is going to take a while to get my swing back."

While Alou's swing may not be completely back yet, he believes his quadriceps is.

"I think I am 99 percent," said Alou, who called the injury the worst muscle pull of his career.

The thing with Alou is that his injuries are more freakish than anything at times, but it has been yet another bizarre year for him.

The Nats are inexplicably trying to trade for Adam Dunn. For a team that is so far away from competing, words cannot describe how insane that would be. If he does get traded, they will have a crack at him in the off-season as his contract would be up after the 2007 season with 2008 being voided.

Some Pedro news but I'm not sure exactly what it all means.

The club said only this much: that Martinez had thrown 50 pitches and that his next activity -- throwing batting practice, a sideline session, another simulated game or pitching in a Minor League game -- would be determined Tuesday after Martinez's condition had been re-evaluated.

I'm not really sure what time frame those next activities would occur in, but August 20th seems like an aggressive target date at this point.

Joe Smith says he is not tired, but it certainly looks like he is.

Belliard is now off the market with his bargain two year contract being inked with the Nationals for 2008 and 2009.

Greenaphobia / Humberitis

First off, just a great win by the Mets coming from two behind and scoring a run in the 8th, 9th, and 10th innings for the comeback win. The bullpen was tight getting two innings from Heilman, one from Feliciano, and one very interesting one with Wagner. So far, they have looked like the 2006 Mets more in the second half and have to feel great coming away with a 4-3 left coast trip. Since the break, they are 7-4 which is good for a .636 winning %.

Now the Mets face Pittsburgh and Washington who are a combined 29 games under .500 before facing the Brewers, the Cubs, and the Braves. They need to feast on the Pirates and the Nationals before their second test of the second half, but so far, the early returns are good. And with Moises Alou returning on Tuesday, their offense should receive another shot in the arm.

One thing I'm sure everyone has been keeping an eye on with Alou's return imminent is Shawn Green. Just what is going to happen with Green? Through the first 42 games he played, he hit .320 with a .507 SLG%. You could not argue with the Mets riding his hot streak and while not many people thought it would last, it was certainly something to take advantage of. Now? Not so much.

Green is not adding much at all. He is not going to help you out on defense and he is turning into a groundball machine with roughly a 2 to 1 groundball to flyball ratio. In his last 42 games, he has hit .222 with a .320 SLG%. You might accept that if he was playing gold glove defense, but that is certainly not the case. He is not hitting lefties in any form as he owns a .195/.263/.264 line against them, but lately, he has not hit much of either righties or lefties.

Obviously it is not Willie's thing to bench vets for the younger players and it will usually take an injury for someone to lose their job, but Milledge should certainly see some time if common sense takes over. It was nice to get some production from Green to start the season off, but I'm not sure many people expected it to last. At this point though, Milledge's upside dwarfs Greens. Though Milledge may not be lighting the world on fire, he has the ability and if given the chance could surprise.

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Mike Pelfrey had a marginal game in New Orleans' blowout against Albuquerque. He gave up four runs in six innings and picked up his third win while watching his ERA rise to 3.88. Just a hunch on my part, but Mike Pelfrey will not have a big league rotation spot in '08 and I'm curious as to what his long term role will be with this team. He seems like trade bait at this point, but his value has diminished and is not worth all that much. In the end, I would tend to think he is going to be pegged for the bullpen in '08. Guys with two good pitches typically end up there and that seems to be where he'll end up until he develops further.

Thanks to DG for pointing out that Humber is actually having a better season than his stats would seem to indicate. He is 13th in the PCL in ERA, ninth in strikeouts, first in wins, and second in WHIP. The negative here is his 15 homers in 18 games (17 in 19 if you count tonight so far), but the PCL can be hell on pitchers.

So far tonight, Humber has given up two homers in five innings for two runs and and five hits overall with six strikeouts. As DG stated, he should be the next call-up should they need a starter. He has pitched well this season and has been his best of late.

Jon Niese had a nice start in St. Lucie's loss to Vero Beach. He went 6.1 innings and gave up nine hits, three runs, and no walks while striking out two.

Just an awesome picture of Placido Palanco flying over Gary Sheffield as they both go for the same fly ball.

"I like Gotay, but I'm not ready to throw him in as 'the guy,' " Randolph said.

You don't have to, but at least play him until he stops. Gotay looks horrific from the right side of the plate, but we have only seen him bat from that side twice. Maybe for good reason, but I'm not sure they have other options at this point.

Milledge can kill fastballs and sitting in the two spot he would certainly see a lot of them. Oh...and in case you didn't know, Rickey likes Rickey.