A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Pondering Some Ponderances

Scott (Philadelphia): If you did have an east coast bias, wouldn't you at least answer one question about the Phillies? Will Drabek recover from TJ?

Jim Callis: (2:51 PM ET ) I forgot to mention the Phillies . . . No reason Kyle Drabek can't recover, because the TJ track record is good. But he is kind of flaky and still has to prove that his makeup won't be an issue. It's a bigger setback for him than most, I think, because he hadn't had much pro success and probably won't get his killer curve back until 2009 or even 2010.


I have no intentions of speaking about Kyle Drabek specifically, though it does sting a bit that the Phillies picked him up with a Mets pick that was surrendered to them, but this 'killer curve' that Jim speaks of brings someone to mind. Drabek actually got his surgery around the same time of year that Humber got his as well.

Presumably, Drabek will be back next year for some obligatory innings before he gears back up for his first full pro-season in a similar fashion to Humber. Though Drabek has more overall talent and a more electric arm, both Humber and Drabek both used a devastating curveball as their out pitch.

Phil still was 10th in ERA in the PCL. His 4.27 ERA does not look pretty, but only four guys actuall managed to post a sub 4.00 ERA versus twleve in the IL. Maybe that speaks more lack of good pitchers than just pitching in the PCL, but I tend to think it is the latter. He also finished first in WHIP with 1.24, which would be tied for 6th in the IL, 5th in strikeouts with 120, which would be good for 8th in the IL, a 7.77 k/9 and a 2.72 k/bb ratio, and had a respectable .244 BAA.

If you really want to start to cherry picking numbers to sway your pro-Humber argument, you can point to his Post All-Star ERA of 3.80 with a .183 BAA and a 8.22 k/9. Of course he walked over four guys per nine, but things happen. Most people these days classify him as a throw in or a non-essential piece. However, I beg to differ. How quickly everyone forgets the kid had surgery on his money maker and had his first full season back in 2007.

His curveball lost a little? Probably, but as Callis states above, it might take another extra season to fully get back into sync. Humber's 2007 numbers were better than people think and he also deserves to get some extra time before people pass judgement. If he is indeed a thrown in, I would be more than happy to see the Mets swap him out for another throw in because I think he can be a solid big leaguer in 2008.

* * *

  • From Mr. Sickels:

    Robert Parnell, RHP, New York Mets
    Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-3 WT: 180 DOB: September 8, 1984

    A ninth round pick out of Charleston Southern in 2005, Parnell has a 90-95 MPH sinking fastball, and a slider which is often overpowering. He gets plenty of ground balls, but his changeup is below average, and Double-A hitter exposed this weakness. His track record, in college and as a pro, is erratic. He clearly has the arm strength to succeed, but is still making the transition from thrower to pitcher. He's a least a year away from being ready for the majors. My guess is that he'll have to move to the bullpen to succeed in the majors. Grade C.


    Good fastball and an overpowering slider? I'd take that out of the bullpen. I am not sold on him as a starter despite him being many fans sleeper candidate year in and year out. As Johnny stated above, he has been rather inconsistent and that wreaks reliever to me.

  • I know I should never post anything on this topic again, but I cannot help it.

    But for the Mets to actually land Santana it will take at least two significant hurdles being cleared, and that doesn't include having to negotiate a long-term contract with him. First, the Mets have to agree to send over a package of many real prospects, probably five or more, which would considerably deplete their minor-league resources. Second, the Red Sox and Yankees, who are both better stocked at the upper reaches of the minors, have to continue to take a less then enthusiastic approach in the competition to add one of the game's top two pitchers.

    Five or more? No thanks. Why no thanks? I've been saying it for weeks and weeks.

    The current prospects on the table appear to be outfielder Carlos Gomez plus pitchers Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey. None of these players is likely to make the immediate impact of a Lester, an Ellsbury or a Hughes. But some scouts believe the overall talent will be greater in a Mets package, and that they should work it out with the team from Queens.

    To review...Yankees package is Hughes and spare parts. Essentially, it is for Hughes. How that would be enough is perplexing to say the least even with his skill set, but the Twins appear fixated on him. The Red Sox packages feature closer to the bigs help and very good talent top to bottom, which is certainly appealing. The Mets package has talent top to bottom as well and is more risky, but possibly the best.

    It appears the Twins may favor Gomez over Fernando Martinez because Gomez can play center field, a need since the defection of fan favorite Torii Hunter to the Angels, and may actually like Humber as much as the Mets' more ballyhooed pitching prospect Mike Pelfrey, whose stock waned last season. In any case the Twins aren't as desperate for immediate pitching help as some might imagine, since they are well-stocked with minor-league arms.

    Good thing on Gomez and why the fuck not in regards to Humber? Coincidently, I gave him some time in my little corner of the internet as this came out to explain why I think they way I do.

  • Also from the above link:

    "Kennedy's as good as Hughes," opines one scout, "They shouldn't do that." Still, some are surprised at the restraint being showed by the Yankees, considering the threat of Santana going to the rival Red Sox. "If Boston gets Santana, they lock up the division the next three or four years," one competing executive says.

    That deserves one of these. Kennedy as good as Hughes? I like Kennedy just as much as the next baseball fan, but this would be the first time I heard this one. Even if you are not as high on Hughes as other people, Kennedy just does not have the stuff that Hughes has.

  • Payroll stuff. The Mets might be #4, but there are plenty of teams that cracked the $100,000,000 barrier. 'Tis crazy times we live in. In fact, half of the MLB teams were over the $90,000,000 threshold and everyone is till making cash.

    This also begs the question, can the Indians afford CC? The short answer is yes, but I am going to give you the long answer. They could give him the contract he is looking for. Afterall, the Indians laid out over $100,000,000 on players before. Sure, they lost $4,0000,000 in that season, but baseball is much stronger these days. It also cannot be glazed over that they made $34,600,000 in operating profits this season with a $70m payroll. Is it a risk based on the amount of payroll he would be taking? Yes, but they could certainly handle it.

    He roughly made $9m in 2007 and 2007 so the difference would be $12m to $15m or so to their current payroll if you just factor in his salary alone. That would bring them up to the mid $80s if everything remains the same and gives them another $20m to play around with for other players. It could be argued that it is not smart, but he would also be a very tradeable commodity providing he does not get hurt, which is the big risk here isn't it?

    Either way, the Indians could do it, but the question remains if they should. Let us not forget that the Indians have built up a warchest over the past few years. Profits of $15m, $19m, $17m, $4, $10m, $27m, $35m, and $25m since '98 compared to only two years and $5m of losses adds up to a lot of money. That is $137m in total before you even consider what they should rake in this season. Of course they need a lot of that money for other things, but they have cash because they are one of the best run franschises in the bigs. Check out their Forbes team valuation:



    I am not one of those people who thinks that the owner, if rich enough, should pony up cash to buy those special players. That just does not jive with me and that is not fair to ask of them. However, a lot of these teams have a ton of money from past seasons and have the ability to dig deep. It all comes down to whether or not they want to and for a player as special as CC, they might have too.

  • Wright says the Mets do not need Santana.

    "I agree 100 percent with Omar [Minaya]," Wright said. "If it's the right price, 30 teams would want him. You don't want to give up the farm system. I've faced Johan. I know how nasty he is."

    This article says Wright wants him despite the above caveat.

    Look, I know it is a slow news day, but can we not ask Sugar Pants inane questions that we know the answers too? I feel the pain too as I have NOTHING to write about either.

  • Predictably, I like the pickup of Rincon. I am still angry at may parents because I am not lefty.

  • My teeth are starting to hurt.

    "He's a guy I would go to battle for any day, but when you're talking about steroids, you're talking about something that's illegal," Wright said of Lo Duca. "Steroids are something I could never - no matter how close of a friend it is - condone."

    I am going to apolgize to Wright again for thinking Reyes took over this franchise. I will never, ever make that mistake again.
  • Labels: , ,

    34 Comments:

    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Just saw on MLB.com the Dodgers and Padres will be in China for a couple of days for Spring Training games.
    Pretty badassed, that's very good. Man, MLB is makng soo much money its ridiculous and its only going to make more if they peak any type of interest in China.

    The thing is, Humber is also roughly 4 to 5 years older than Drabek so that's important to remember. By the time Drabek is 25, he'll should have nothing to worry about.

    Wow, I wasn't aware that Parnell through in the mid 90's...
    I'm a bigger fan of Niese rather than Parnell. This is a big year for Niese, if he gets through this year succesfully, then next season he's ready to rock n' roll and he's only 22 years old, he'd be making his debut at 23, which is amazing.

    Mike, that squirrel, haha. It had my dying of laughter for waay too long, HAHA!

    11:15 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    China is good. South America and Central America is still insanely untapped though. The Braves have a Columbian pitcher who is sick. Possibly Felix Hernandez good.

    Benny, 4 to 5 years is irrelvant here for one thing.

    Humber was going to still hit the bigs around the same time as Drabek barring injury. Humber probably could have hit AAA in '06 and the bigs in '07. Drabek was four years away in '07....So while their age is different, we are talking about coming back from TJ and that has nothing to do with age.

    Guys to watch:
    Neise
    Vineyward
    Moviel
    Rustich

    In terms of pitchers that is.

    First time you've seen the squirrel? Too bad. I've seen it about 1,000 times already and it never gets old. You had the sound up, right?

    11:21 AM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    metsblog has a boston herald article up that says insiders say there are indications that Fernando Martinez AND ryan church would be in the Johan deal.

    hmmmm, who plays OF for us then???

    strangeness.

    11:29 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Both? Fucking shit fuck. What the fuck?

    11:31 AM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    Also, re: Humber, i remember in a Kieth Law chat, he said Humber left his hammer curve on the TJ surgery table.

    I'm hoping it comes back this year too in a big way. (for us!)

    I know. that artile made my head spin.

    I can see them wanting church if 1) they want him to play CF for them and think he can ; and 2) they are truly that caught up in getting a ML ready piece back.

    Does Omar have another deal for an OF in the works???

    cuz playing Gomez 140 games in a corner kinda sucks and would eat a huge chunk of whatever positives we get from johan

    11:35 AM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    here's the link to the boston herald article, in the notes on the bottom.

    it says pelfrey could be in the deal too.

    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1068679

    11:37 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I did read that with Law, but why can't people give him time to adjust.

    Also, I love Keith Law, but he scouts guys once. He saw Mulvey once in college and loved him and saw him once in the minors and said he did not like him as much.

    So, what he says is valuable, but we must consider other factors as well. I am (rightfully or wrongfully) still optimistic and will wait to see if his curve comes back. Burnett's did just as so many others. I am not ready to call him a bust just yet.

    Gomez for 140 games would be horrible for him and the Mets. Bad, bad, bad, bad. Angel Pagan? Please no.

    11:46 AM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    good points on Law. sometimes i treat his words as...law ;) and must remember he is just a man, just like me or you.

    Imagine when Alou goes down.

    Gomez/Beltran/Chavez.

    Best. Defensive. OF. Ever.

    Worst. Offensive. OF. Ever.

    lol

    I just want this over with. I'm so tired of Johan-mania, some finality please. one way or the other. lets get it over with so we can see where we stand and start getting our heads right for pitchers and catchers.

    11:49 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I like Law a lot. But I am just pointing something out in regards to his scouting, which I do trust as well. I am not trying to ignore some and take others as gospel, but I do like to comapare and contrast.

    RE: Mulvey, Sickels really likes him and I see no reason his stuff went backwards since college and his performance would seem to back that up.

    I do not deny he saw a weaker curve from Humber, but I think he gets more time is all I'm saying to see if it comes back.

    Best. Defensive. OF. Ever.

    Worst. Offensive. OF. Ever.


    Exactly....Omar is not that dumb, right? I actually think the Mets might have to start getting into the converstation when you think of worst run teams.

    Sad to say, but if they do, it is just nuts.

    12:00 PM

     
    Blogger Rickey Henderson said...

    Wait, according to the SI article yesterday we would keep F-Mart in a trade for Santana? What the everloving fuck is going on? See, this is whay Rickey doesn't like to talk about Santana much...

    12:05 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I wish I had your ability to abstain. Unfortunately, I'm a sucker when it comes to this because the babble it is so insane.

    The Mets prospects are too young? Too fucking bad. That is your problem, not ours (well, maybe a little bit ours). We should not have to double our deal vs. everyone else. Twins can take the best talent or they could pass.

    It is not like these guys are soooo far away. Mulvey and Humber should be ready in '08 and Gomez in '09. Am I missing something?

    12:10 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    -Scott

    Loved the squirrel dude! check this one out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpt6A-LawC0&NR=1

    I love the rincon pick up! Whats the down side? I don't see one and the guy was good, real good in Minnesota.

    Looks like they like a package including Church not Gomez for Santana. Sounds good to me. But, are the really talking? I still havent read anywhere that talks are even going on. So how r these stories coming out? Seems like it might be imagination.

    Rosenthal calls FMart a 'hitting machine.' No shit? This is the same guy who said the Mets were prospect challenged 2 months ago. So has F mart actually turned into Manny in those 2 months or is it that Rosenthal et al don't know crap about our prospects.

    Fucking Ponderous

    1:01 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    -Scott

    Meant to ask if anyone saw Dr Rick on SNY hot stove this week. If not catch him. He is super high on Pelfrey...super high. He makes Pelf sound like the next Nolan Ryan. No kidding? all he has to do, according to the jacket(damn man get a haircut its not 1989 anymore!), Pelfrey will be a major strike out guy if he can consistently hit the bottom of the strike zone.

    Are we bringing our prospects up too soon? Even Reyes looked raw and unready when he came up. Now we have 2 pitchers who seem unduly tarnished because the ywere brought in to soon and for no other reason. Why not keep em in the minors longer and import talent (FA) until they r truly ready.

    1:09 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Church + F-Mart over Gomez which = bad.

    Rosenthal calls FMart a 'hitting machine.' No shit? This is the same guy who said the Mets were prospect challenged 2 months ago. So has F mart actually turned into Manny in those 2 months or is it that Rosenthal et al don't know crap about our prospects.

    Fucking ponderous is right. These guys (including Olney) spout off before doing some research. I give whomever Boston guy actually asked Jim Callis some questions. Utterly ridiculous.

    It is easy to be down on Pelfrey. Shit, I am, but he has a ton of upside. He can control the game with his fastball if he gets two average pitches and could still be ace material.

    I think he all gave us hope at the end of the year. I little confidence in the kid will go a long way because he will attack the zone rather than pussy footing around. He k/9 in the bigs is out of whack a-la John Maine early on.

    It takes time for young pitchers and not many come into the bigs like Verlander, Liriano, and Hamels and knock 'em dead.

    1:19 PM

     
    Anonymous Orangeandblueblood said...

    I saw the SNY piece with Dr. Rick. I love the fact that hitters hit only .190 against Pelfrey when he keeps the ball down in the zone and that he's a groundball machine. I still think he can grow into a #2 type pitcher. Bedard took 3 years at the ML level to become and ace. Pelfrey was never given time to develop from a college pitcher to a ML pitcher.

    Mike, I agree about Humber and expect he will have a really good year. This is his comeback season, two years out from TJ surgery. It usually takes two years to get touch back on breaking pitches and fastball stamina. The Mets need to find a way to get Santana and keep Pelfrey, Humber, and Martinez. I don't think anyone outside of the Mets and Twins knows what players are really in play for Santana. I'm hoping for a plesant surprise annoncement that Sanatna is a Met for Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, Carp, and Neise. That is still alot to lose but is alot better than the Twins would get if they let Sanatna go as a FA.

    If a trade for Sanatna includes Church, given what the Mets have in their system that is ML ready (Gomez is a year away)and the slim pickings on the FA market (Wilkerson or Mench?) trading Church for Santana might be worse than not having Santana. When Alou goes down the lineup will be pretty uninspiring. The bottom 4 spots will be low OBP, no power hitters, and that assumes Delgado comes back strong. That will kill alot of run production. Did I miss a viable RF power hitting FA that can play average to above average defense?

    1:49 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    Mike this one is for you.

    I fully expect commentary on it in your next column. Demand it! ;)


    http://www.browniepointsblog.com/2008/01/20/homemade-bacon-vodka/

    2:25 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    That link did not work. I need to try it outside of work. Mabye they think seeing something of that magitude might result in too many employees having seizures.

    Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, Carp, and Neise

    I'd drive them all there myself.

    The Mets could replace Church fairly easily with a platoon. Mench or Wilkerson would work just fine as a start point for sure.

    The Mets might be willing to gamble on their OF situation for Santana.

    2:55 PM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    Man, they're showing European handball on TV tonight! When I was a kid we played it during gym class, but it's about as much fun as discussing Johan Santana trade variations. Fucking ponderous is right. This whole off season!

    I was surprised at least to find both NFL playoff games broadcast live this weekend. The French seem to really enjoy American football these days. And I must say that if you have to hear ridiculous commentary on a football game, it might as well be in French!

    I'm tired of all the Santana speculative bullshit. If the Mets are unwilling to give up Martinez & Gomez in the deal, why would they consent to Gomez & Church? Who exactly would be playing right field? Brad Wilkerson doesn't cut it! And there ain't much more left on the market. Just let me know what the deal is when it is done, if it is done!

    Remember the only escape from our off season in purgatory is Spring Training. Can someone hurry up and cue pitchers and catchers?

    Oh boy, women's volleyball is up next! Swelliciously ponderous!

    3:23 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    Damn, that link is killed now for me too. Probly too much traffic today since its made the rounds.

    It was homemade bacon vodka!

    shit, if we had to, I'd bring Green back, sign Mench and call it a day.

    That platoon would hit more than adequately. The D would be absolutely atrocious but hey no one's perfect.

    I guess Johan better K every bastard we face then!!!!!

    3:24 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    European Handball? Shit...sign me up.

    Women's Beach Volleyball is simply the most underrated sports known to man...that is right after Eurpean Handball. The indoors Women's Volleyball tends to not excite me as much.

    shit, if we had to, I'd bring Green back, sign Mench and call it a day.

    That platoon would hit more than adequately. The D would be absolutely atrocious but hey no one's perfect.

    I guess Johan better K every bastard we face then!!!!!


    Agreed. Also, Gomez might be ready by mid-year. You never know. But it all depends on who the other players are. F-Mart, Church, Pelfrey, and WHO? Guerra? Mulvey? Humber? Neise? Someone else?

    For the record, I am sick of the Johan talks as well. I try to ignore them, but I just cannot. Some of the stuff out there is insane and consider it my duty to report the truth!!! Or the truth as see it anyway.

    3:29 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    We can always get crunk on Bacon Vodka and pass out till april. ;)

    4:04 PM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    pass out till April... Works for me!

    Jo-Wilfred Tsonga! Finals in Australia!

    4:31 PM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    Oh and that was indoor women's volleyball (sniff).

    4:32 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    The Mets prospects are too young? Too fucking bad.

    This reminds me of one of my homegirls who bickered and had this disgusting face on, with her arms folded. Why? Because she couldn't get into a bar. Why fuck up my day because you were born a year after me? Dumb bitch.
    Anyways, I dunno if I used it as an analogy or if I just wanted to get it off my chest.

    Johan Santana

    4:34 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    Tsongas is awesome!!!! Nadal tipped his cap bigtime to him too. Said he played at a level beyond what he expected to see, even from a Federer.

    I hope Federer makes it and Tsongas beats his ass. that would be glorious.

    4:38 PM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    Would be awesome indeed. He's had a great tournament.

    5:35 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Quick question, I'm working with school's athletic department.
    What in the blue hell would it take to get any of you guys to go to a women's softball game?
    or what would it have taken to get you to go to one when you were in college?
    thanks,

    7:27 PM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    Benny,

    They should play on sand in string bikinis!

    9:13 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    For those who wished for it:


    According to Tracy Ringolsby in the Rocky Mountain News, the Mets are ‘close to a deal’ with free-agent RHP Livan Hernandez.

    Congrats to all. I'll see you boys in 2009.

    - Nokes

    10:05 AM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    thats a good pick up... they need another arm with the way this old staff is set up.

    10:39 AM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    Johan...Livan....same difference.


    not quite. I'm not thrilled about Livan, I think he's garbage and on a horrible downtrend but i'll deal.

    this speaks to omar's confidence in getting johan imo.

    Sucks for Pelfrey and Humber. They are about to lose a lot of innings to a below average pitcher.

    Beware of pitchers labelled as "innings-eaters". they more often than not, stink.

    10:40 AM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    Personally, I don't see an enormous difference between Livan and Glavine. Livan has been pitching in a hitter's ballpark and if he's really signed moves into a flyball pitcher's paradise. Add in the presence of his brother and The Jacket and it may provide a good return.

    It also may free the Mets to put El Duque in the pen which would certainly improve the pen as well as improve the likelihood that the Duque makes it through the season.

    Crazy spec on the Santana market today. I read something to the effect of Church, Gomez, Heilman & Pelfrey. That sounds like a foolish trade to me as it robs the pen of its most dependable set up man and the outfield of a rightfielder. But why am I even bothering to ponder it? Just a waste of time until something happens!

    11:09 AM

     
    Anonymous most boring off season ever said...

    Personally, I don't see an enormous difference between Livan and Glavine. Livan has been pitching in a hitter's ballpark and if he's really signed moves into a flyball pitcher's paradise. Add in the presence of his brother and The Jacket and it may provide a good return.

    It also may free the Mets to put El Duque in the pen which would certainly improve the pen as well as improve the likelihood that the Duque makes it through the season.

    Crazy spec on the Santana market today. I read something to the effect of Church, Gomez, Heilman & Pelfrey. That sounds like a foolish trade to me as it robs the pen of its most dependable set up man and the outfield of a rightfielder. But why am I even bothering to ponder it? Just a waste of time until something happens!

    11:09 AM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    stallone says roids will be legal in a bit

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/01242008/gossip/pagesix/rambo_builder_449604.htm

    12:08 PM

     

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