A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Debunking Popular Notion

Before we get into the meat of the post, let me apologize for posting this. I know we are all sick of this topic and you are probably the last people who need to read it since the majority of you get it, but I have no other avenue of venting this.

Call we please stop this lunacy? The Mets package is a just as good and likely better than the Yankees package.

Jim Callis said Gomez showed him a little something in the bigs. Carlos had no business being there, but he did do some things to open some eyes.

His ceiling is huge and this year, with the way he's performed, I have more belief that he can reach it. He's definitely ahead of Milledge on the Mets' depth chart and I bet Milledge gets dealt in the next six months.

Not good enough? How about John Sickels?

Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B (undecided, may raise to B+. You guys are right about the injuries, but you also need to be more wary of Mets propaganda.)

Met ‘propaganda’ or not, a few guys that solely concentrate on prospects are rather high on the kid. He is a legit blue chipper who has been rushed a bit, which is why his numbers never seem all that good. Gomez will be 22 this season. Care to guess how old Ellsbury is? A full two years older. Neither have exhibited much pop, but Gomez flashes plus power in BP, which means little until he starts doing it in games. However, it cannot be ignored his ceiling, while not as likely to be achieved as Ellsbury, is greatly higher. It is a complete risk tolerance choice here.

Then there is Guerra. An 18 year old in the SALLY League. He is a B+ prospect according to John Sickels and one of the best remaining pitching prospects in the minors overall.

Jim Callis said, “if he stays healthy, you could see him in 2009. The stuff is that good and I love the body. He can get out of whack easily in his delivery at times, but the negatives are all minor, correctable things. Good presence on the mound.”

A 20 year old in the bigs? I think that qualifies as some serious talent.

That is before we even touch on Mulvey and Humber. Humber’s star has fallen, but he was in the league leaders in every pitching category in the PCL. Do more than just look at his numbers alone. Compare them against everyone else in the league and make a judgment. Also, Keith Law said that he favors Humber over Horne. Horne is better than Marquez, who gets a C+ from Sickels. Therefore by transitive property we can assume that Humber is a much better prospect than Marquez, who the Yankees were graciously offering as third prospect.

Armed with that information and the fact that Mulvey is more coveted these days than Humber, that gives the Twins two pitchers better than Marquez if they went with the Mets deal. For a reference point, Sickels calls Humber a B- and Mulvey a B that might get raised to a B+. If you are counting, that is a B+, two fringe B+ guys, and a B- guy and an overall good haul.

Yes, Hughes is the best prospect out of the bunch, but the Mets deal is faaaar deeper and they get a two blue chippers versus one. Melky is a disaster. Please, look at his minor league stats and big league stats. He is 22 and has room to grow, but he is no star. Obviously he is good enough to be a starter in this league, but there are many, many other guys I would prefer starting over him and he would have no shot at starting on the lowly Mets. His 4.4 WARP1 is easily exceeded by many. The much maligned Coco Crisp was more valuable by more than 36% according to WARP1 and he had a horrific year according to most people’s opinions.

Then we toss F-Mart into the equation. Keith Law had said in a chat recently that he values him above any player in any of the proposed deals. Under no circumstance should he be added as a fifth player because that would just be too much on a deal where the Mets are already giving up too much. Who else is offering a B+ prospect, two fringe B+ prospects, and another B- for good measure? You may prefer another package if you have a hard on for Hughes or Ellsbury, who is vastly overrated and taken on a life of his own, but to deny the possibility the Mets package might be the best is insane. Check the numbers and maybe read some people’s opinions who….you know….scout the game of baseball. Listening to some dumb opinions perpetuated by crappy writers is not the best way to get some real baseball information.

So not only is the Yankee deal probably worse than the Mets, but also worse than a Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson deal. If the Twins REALLY wanted Hughes, then sure. Go for it. However, if they want depth of quality versus one blue chip and peripheral pieces, there are much better options than the Yankees offer, which will undoubtedly mystify some Yankee fans. With the Red Sox deal, they get three players who have a chance to be above average players in his league from day #1 of the acquisition. Lowrie has a chance to be a run producing middle infielder and would easily be more valuable than Melky next year as Crisp probably will be yet again. As for Lester, he is a potential front end starter and Masterson is on par with Mulvey’s value, though I like Mulvey better.

The Twins are highly intelligent to be asking for more from the Yankees if the deals we have heard are correct because they have two betters ones purportedly on the table. I love how Yankee fans will call Met fans delusional when they should really not judge anyone else until they can coherently come to an educated conclusion on any topic. The Twins may want to send Johan to the National League, but they certainly are not doing so at the expense of getting talent. It just so happens the best deal might actually be from the place they want to send him the most.

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  • I’m not sure if you are into the entire no pants on the subway thing, but if you are, this is right up your alley.

  • Just a continuation from the top piece, but if I were the Twins GM and was looking at the following deals:

    #1) Gomez
    Guerra
    Mulvey
    Humber

    #2) Lester
    Lowrie
    Masterson
    Whomever

    #3) Hughes
    Marquez
    Melky (I just puked a bit)
    Whomever

    Of course the main caveat is who that fourth player is for the Red Sox and Yankee deals. If we are talking about Tabata, which the Yankees will not do, that makes me think long and hard about that deal versus the others. In fact, if you include him, I would jump on that. If we are talking about Austin Jackson, I’m probably taking door #1 or door #2. Horne would make me think about things a bit more, but he has had one really good year back from injury. Basically, the Yankees just are not giving up enough. Anyone lower than Tabata on the prospect list just does not make that deal better.

    As for the Red Sox deal, I see the best 1-2 punch of any deal with Lowrie and Lester. A potential front end guy with a potential run producing middle infielder. Do not get blinded by Lowrie’s meager home run numbers, his over .500 SLG% in AA and AAA should quell those fears of lacking the pop some are talking about. The guy can draw a walk and has walked 165 times and struck out 186 times in 283 minor league games. However, if he cannot stay at shortstop or second base, the Mets have the best 1-2 punch. I am not as concerned with the Red Sox fourth guy as the Yankees because their 1-2-3 is much better than the Yankees, but it does matter a bit.

    So really, it boils down to Mets deal versus the Red Sox deal. Lowrie is still a bit of a question mark, though a talented one. Will he start hitting some homers and can he stay up the middle? He is no sure thing. However, I think the Mets solid offering of two soon-to-be ready big league arms with two blue chippers really seals the deal here for me since I like them both better than Masterson unless the Red Sox sweeten the pot with Anderson or Bowden, which they seem unlikely to do. Am I being a homer? Perhaps, but if you do not like it start your own blog.


  • I have three words to say about this. Sign me up.

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  • 9 Comments:

    Anonymous benny b said...

    The thing about Guerra is that he really is getting better. All reports have him improving the way you'd want him to. He started out throwing in the mid mid 80's while touching 90.
    Now reports say he's in the low to mid 90's. And touching 96. He probably only touched 96 once but still, that's amazing.
    The past few days it seems like Johan to the Mets is picking up. It really seems that it's going to happen. Omar is deffinitly trying to do some mixing and matching. Whether replacing Gomez with Martinez or switching Humber with Pelfrey, he's working it.
    I'm excited.

    ESPN says the Mets were gonna sign Colon and then saw his pitching arm was in worse condition than his body, hmmmm, not good. Whoever signs him is probably wasting thier money.

    Something pisses me off about Metsblog. This idea that the "prime years" are ages 29-32. According to people there Johan is "just entering" his prime. Beltran is "just entering" his prime. Like seriously, wtf!? No!

    2:29 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Guerra is really, really good and not may normal heebs have heard of him, which is why they hear Hughes and say "that has to be the best package".

    Hughes > Guerra, but Guerra is still pretty fucking solid.

    You would be hard pressed to find a GM that wants Melky over Gomez.

    Humber and Mulvey and better than Marquez....

    Then who is the #4? Please, that package is Hughes and shit.

    The Mets are giving depth. Personally, I think F-Mart is too much if just swapped out for Gomez. If he goes, I want Mulvey here. The Twins are making out well no matter what anyone says.

    In fact, the more I think the Red Sox deal, it seems that it is just a matter of preference at that point. The Mets deal stacks up favorably there since Four players are better than their last two.

    Yes, Lester and Lowrie are solid, but the Mets offer up an impressive 1-2. Also, the Ellsbury version is just not impressive to me. Lester > Ellsbury. Simple. I don't get why everyone is excited about Grady Sizemore without the power? He is good and I would love to have him, but as the centerpiece for Santana? I'm not so sure about that one.

    And yes, I know he is highly regards and an A- prospect and all, but I'm just not seeing how a 24 year old with no pop is all that valuable. Stellar glove, but his value to weighted too much on glove and batting average and there is a chance his bat is just mediocre.

    Omar should stand pat on this deal and keep F-Mart. Of course the Twins want him, but who cares? The Mets deal is the most intriguing of all of them.

    Keep Colon away please.

    Prime is NOT 29-32. They can still have big years then for sure, but the prime years start a bit earlier and probably end at 30. Altough, we are in a time when this really needs to get thought about some more. I tend to think Santana's best seasons are behind him, but he should still be the best for a few more years.

    3:12 PM

     
    Anonymous orangeandblueblood said...

    I totally agree with the first section of your post. Actually, I think the Mets package for Santana is too good compared to the other offers. When Lowrie ends up at 3B he doesn't look so great. Lester is very good but not lights out. The rest of the package is average. If the Mets said pick two between Guerra, Mulvey and Humber and then two of the younger guys (Neise, Movil, Vineyard, Carr...) it would be better than the Yankees offer and close to the Red Sox offer. Then the Twins have to decide if shipping Santana to the NL is important to them or do they want to face him in the AL playoffs. Santana is not a must, he is a very desirable but this team will win without him. F-Mart should not be part of this deal. I don't see the Sox or Yankees improving their offers because I don't think either want any part of another hugh dollar long term deal. That is why both are sitting on their hands. They set the bar high enough to prevent the other from going for Santana and now both are hoping the Mets step in and make the trade.

    3:27 PM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    You guys are ALL FIRED UP! WOW!

    I agree with all three of you, but have one more reason not to include F-Mart, on top of what you have already said. He could have signed with other teams, but why did he sign with the Mets? Because of Pedro Martinez. The Mets trade him away so quickly, and it makes the next great prospect from the Dominican think twice before signing with the Mets.

    Santana's numbers from last year were already worse than any of the five previous years, especially the HR allowed. That could be a sign of further decline.

    Go get Bedard. The whole notion of doing the Santana trade to prove that the Mets prospects are as good as the Sawx or the Yankers is not good enough for me. Bedard is more of a Jerry Koosman type pitcher than Santana, plus he wouldn't cost as much to get.

    3:39 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I like it. Keep F-Mart, keep Mulvey or Humber and subb in a younger, but still good arm.

    Sidd, it is a business and I think people will get that. Just by signing a kid from the Dominican, it doesn't mean he should now be yours for life you are indebt to him.

    I suppose it could be an issue down the road, but I don't think it's all that much of an issue.

    RE: Santana...his homers were up, but his peripherals were the same. I think it was a one year anomoly that does happen from time to time. I'm not sweating it much.

    I like me some Bedard, but I actually like the Mariners offers that have been thrown around more.

    I love Jones....he is a stud. Then the other guys the Mariners have are pretty solid as well.

    4:03 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Just saw on rotoworld that Bartolome Fortunato and Bret Harper were invited to Spring Training by the Giants.
    BOth of those guys are useless but it still sucks that a guy like Harper would never been given a chance to even be at Triple A with the Mets. Oh well. That guy is like 27 already though.

    I'd rather have Johan than Bedard. Sure you can have him for more years but... Bedard has never been healthy which is more than good enough reason to pick JOhan for me.

    9:38 PM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    Do the Twins really want to see Johann pitch for thr Yanks or Bosox, I don't think so, every offer we have seen has been 4 players but the Twins demand 5 from us, stand firm Omar.

    12:26 AM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    I would not part with Fernando Martinez personally, certainly not on top of the purported deal. Basic economics argues against losing both outfielders when you consider the costs of resigning Johan and then OPerez in 2009 (with Maine earning more as well). If the Mets have to go out and acquire an outfielder to replace Alou and/or Church on the FA market or even in a trade, payroll costs likely would begin to be an issue for the Mets. Personally, I think the Mets are already in on this and won't cede both outflielders.

    The basic package seems fine to me. I'd love to see the Mets hold on to Guerra, but 5 - 7 years of Johan probably is better short term in any case, and Guerra's mechanics are not Johan's in the least. If another player is needed I could see the Mets allowing a prospect from the the world of Niese, etc, though not a pitcher (I've got a weak spot for Niese!). Perhaps someone like Dan Murphy or Hector Pellot? That would make a pretty rich deal right there.

    As far as other teams offers (but not in terms of how they relate to the Mets' own offer), I'd say that Hughes is perhaps the best pitcher, but the rest of the Yanks offer is average, average +. The Sox offer solid prospects and deal from strength with their stellar org.

    Mets cannot move Vineyard, Moviel, etc. until sometime next summer given that they were drafted this year.

    9:12 AM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    I would not part with Fernando Martinez personally, certainly not on top of the purported deal. Basic economics argues against losing both outfielders when you consider the costs of resigning Johan and then OPerez in 2009 (with Maine earning more as well). If the Mets have to go out and acquire an outfielder to replace Alou and/or Church on the FA market or even in a trade, payroll costs likely would begin to be an issue for the Mets. Personally, I think the Mets are already in on this and won't cede both outflielders.

    The basic package seems fine to me. I'd love to see the Mets hold on to Guerra, but 5 - 7 years of Johan probably is better short term in any case, and Guerra's mechanics are not Johan's in the least. If another player is needed I could see the Mets allowing a prospect from the the world of Niese, etc, though not a pitcher (I've got a weak spot for Niese!). Perhaps someone like Dan Murphy or Hector Pellot? That would make a pretty rich deal right there.

    As far as other teams offers (but not in terms of how they relate to the Mets' own offer), I'd say that Hughes is perhaps the best pitcher, but the rest of the Yanks offer is average, average +. The Sox offer solid prospects and deal from strength with their stellar org.

    Mets cannot move Vineyard, Moviel, etc. until sometime next summer given that they were drafted this year.

    9:12 AM

     

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