Debunking Popular Notion
Before we get into the meat of the post, let me apologize for posting this. I know we are all sick of this topic and you are probably the last people who need to read it since the majority of you get it, but I have no other avenue of venting this.
Call we please stop this lunacy? The Mets package is a just as good and likely better than the Yankees package.
Jim Callis said Gomez showed him a little something in the bigs. Carlos had no business being there, but he did do some things to open some eyes.
His ceiling is huge and this year, with the way he's performed, I have more belief that he can reach it. He's definitely ahead of Milledge on the Mets' depth chart and I bet Milledge gets dealt in the next six months.
Not good enough? How about John Sickels?
Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B (undecided, may raise to B+. You guys are right about the injuries, but you also need to be more wary of Mets propaganda.)
Met ‘propaganda’ or not, a few guys that solely concentrate on prospects are rather high on the kid. He is a legit blue chipper who has been rushed a bit, which is why his numbers never seem all that good. Gomez will be 22 this season. Care to guess how old Ellsbury is? A full two years older. Neither have exhibited much pop, but Gomez flashes plus power in BP, which means little until he starts doing it in games. However, it cannot be ignored his ceiling, while not as likely to be achieved as Ellsbury, is greatly higher. It is a complete risk tolerance choice here.
Then there is Guerra. An 18 year old in the SALLY League. He is a B+ prospect according to John Sickels and one of the best remaining pitching prospects in the minors overall.
Jim Callis said, “if he stays healthy, you could see him in 2009. The stuff is that good and I love the body. He can get out of whack easily in his delivery at times, but the negatives are all minor, correctable things. Good presence on the mound.”
A 20 year old in the bigs? I think that qualifies as some serious talent.
That is before we even touch on Mulvey and Humber. Humber’s star has fallen, but he was in the league leaders in every pitching category in the PCL. Do more than just look at his numbers alone. Compare them against everyone else in the league and make a judgment. Also, Keith Law said that he favors Humber over Horne. Horne is better than Marquez, who gets a C+ from Sickels. Therefore by transitive property we can assume that Humber is a much better prospect than Marquez, who the Yankees were graciously offering as third prospect.
Armed with that information and the fact that Mulvey is more coveted these days than Humber, that gives the Twins two pitchers better than Marquez if they went with the Mets deal. For a reference point, Sickels calls Humber a B- and Mulvey a B that might get raised to a B+. If you are counting, that is a B+, two fringe B+ guys, and a B- guy and an overall good haul.
Yes, Hughes is the best prospect out of the bunch, but the Mets deal is faaaar deeper and they get a two blue chippers versus one. Melky is a disaster. Please, look at his minor league stats and big league stats. He is 22 and has room to grow, but he is no star. Obviously he is good enough to be a starter in this league, but there are many, many other guys I would prefer starting over him and he would have no shot at starting on the lowly Mets. His 4.4 WARP1 is easily exceeded by many. The much maligned Coco Crisp was more valuable by more than 36% according to WARP1 and he had a horrific year according to most people’s opinions.
Then we toss F-Mart into the equation. Keith Law had said in a chat recently that he values him above any player in any of the proposed deals. Under no circumstance should he be added as a fifth player because that would just be too much on a deal where the Mets are already giving up too much. Who else is offering a B+ prospect, two fringe B+ prospects, and another B- for good measure? You may prefer another package if you have a hard on for Hughes or Ellsbury, who is vastly overrated and taken on a life of his own, but to deny the possibility the Mets package might be the best is insane. Check the numbers and maybe read some people’s opinions who….you know….scout the game of baseball. Listening to some dumb opinions perpetuated by crappy writers is not the best way to get some real baseball information.
So not only is the Yankee deal probably worse than the Mets, but also worse than a Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson deal. If the Twins REALLY wanted Hughes, then sure. Go for it. However, if they want depth of quality versus one blue chip and peripheral pieces, there are much better options than the Yankees offer, which will undoubtedly mystify some Yankee fans. With the Red Sox deal, they get three players who have a chance to be above average players in his league from day #1 of the acquisition. Lowrie has a chance to be a run producing middle infielder and would easily be more valuable than Melky next year as Crisp probably will be yet again. As for Lester, he is a potential front end starter and Masterson is on par with Mulvey’s value, though I like Mulvey better.
The Twins are highly intelligent to be asking for more from the Yankees if the deals we have heard are correct because they have two betters ones purportedly on the table. I love how Yankee fans will call Met fans delusional when they should really not judge anyone else until they can coherently come to an educated conclusion on any topic. The Twins may want to send Johan to the National League, but they certainly are not doing so at the expense of getting talent. It just so happens the best deal might actually be from the place they want to send him the most.
Melky (I just puked a bit)
Of course the main caveat is who that fourth player is for the Red Sox and Yankee deals. If we are talking about Tabata, which the Yankees will not do, that makes me think long and hard about that deal versus the others. In fact, if you include him, I would jump on that. If we are talking about Austin Jackson, I’m probably taking door #1 or door #2. Horne would make me think about things a bit more, but he has had one really good year back from injury. Basically, the Yankees just are not giving up enough. Anyone lower than Tabata on the prospect list just does not make that deal better.
As for the Red Sox deal, I see the best 1-2 punch of any deal with Lowrie and Lester. A potential front end guy with a potential run producing middle infielder. Do not get blinded by Lowrie’s meager home run numbers, his over .500 SLG% in AA and AAA should quell those fears of lacking the pop some are talking about. The guy can draw a walk and has walked 165 times and struck out 186 times in 283 minor league games. However, if he cannot stay at shortstop or second base, the Mets have the best 1-2 punch. I am not as concerned with the Red Sox fourth guy as the Yankees because their 1-2-3 is much better than the Yankees, but it does matter a bit.
So really, it boils down to Mets deal versus the Red Sox deal. Lowrie is still a bit of a question mark, though a talented one. Will he start hitting some homers and can he stay up the middle? He is no sure thing. However, I think the Mets solid offering of two soon-to-be ready big league arms with two blue chippers really seals the deal here for me since I like them both better than Masterson unless the Red Sox sweeten the pot with Anderson or Bowden, which they seem unlikely to do. Am I being a homer? Perhaps, but if you do not like it start your own blog.
Labels: johan santana