A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Santana Babble Continues

I would apologize for my absence, but that would insinuate that I actually think I am important so I will skip that. However, I could not resist jumping back into the Johan Santana fray since that is all that seems to be going around these days. First, this tasty link.

Without Martinez, a 19-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder who jumped from rookie level to Double A last season, the Mets’ deal is too young for the Twins to gamble on, unless they were feeling lucky.

“If the Twins wanted to roll the dice, the Mets’ offer (with Martinez) could be the best deal,” Callis said.

Martinez is still three or four years away from being ready for the majors.

“(But his) offensive potential is significant,” Manuel said.


With Mauer, Morneau, Young, Slowey, etc. in the fold today and productive today, the Twins really cannot afford to gamble on young guys. However, the simple fact is the Mets talent could be the best, but they are taking a leap of faith and would have to place a lot of trust into their scouting department.

Chris (Hoboken, NJ): Ok Mr. Callis, I got a bone to pick with you. Every week you?re kind enough to answer the general what will it take for the Mets to acquire Johan, and some set of Mets prospects is thrown out for you to comment on, to which you always reply the Mets prospects aren?t enough for Johan. However, this week, you were quoted as saying that ?If the Twins wanted to roll the dice, the Mets? offer could be the best deal. (Martinez?s) offensive potential is significant. (He?s) a special offensive player?he can do anything he wants offensively.? So let me ask you, is F-mart, C-Gomez, K Mulvey, D. Guerrra, and P Humber enough or too much to get Johan? How would that offer compare to the Sox and Yanks offers, assuming one of Ellsbury, Hughes or Lester is included? Oh, and go buy the 2008 handbook!

Jim Callis: Wait a minute, Chris. I never said Martinez can do anything he wants offensively. In that article in the Boston Herald, I said the Mets' offer potential could be the best -- if it includes Martinez, Guerra and Gomez AND they all reach their potential. That's a big IF, because there's a significant gap between their present abilities and their ceilings. If someone wanted to gamble, that could be a big payoff. But you also could be left holding the bag if only one of those guys pans out as hoped. The problem with the Mets' packages is that Humber and Pelfrey have diminished value, Mulvey is interesting but not a frontline pitcher and their best players lack a lot of polish because they're so young. And yes, go buy the Handbook!


Of course, I am not interested in putting both Gomez and Fernando in there and would prefer to keep Fernando over Gomez, but it is not up to me and it seems like if the Mets can smell blood, they are going to go in for the kill. The temptation is seemingly just too strong, but I think they should stand firm and keep Fernando and let them figure the rest out. It is not their problem the Twins would prefer more big league ready plays and they just need to offer whatever is they can.

Concur! Get it done Omar…let sleeping dogs lie…..this is by far the most important winter of your career and all we have to show for it is Ryan Church, Brian Schneider, and Luis Castillo. Let’s not kid ourselves here….last year’s collapse was a complete embarrassment to the organization and to the fan base.

The above is from a commenter from somewhere on the interweb. Scary, right? The fact is all three of those guys do improve this ballclub over the '07 version by being on the opening day roster from day one, which is Omar's job. To actually improve this ballclub however he can improve it and not necessarily to do it a fan pleasing manner. Bill Smith should take note of that as well.

Even if everything else is kept equal and if Pedro can give some Glavine-esque league average innings, Church alone probably adds slightly more than three wins when you factor in his glove, which would have gotten the Mets into the playoffs.

The Mets were not all that far from the playoffs and while a huge addition like Santana will add about eights wins if Pedro can replace Glavine's production, Omar can get where he wants to go by adding peripheral pieces and filling in the cracks. One method gets you more ink, but you simply have to balance the future out.

I guess if the Mets felt like they had to go for it in '08 and '09, then whatever. Liquidate away, but this team has enough youth that should be poised for an extended run, which I would prefer. I have hit my saturation point with Mulvey, Humber, Gomez, and Guerra being the offer.

You may be asking yourself if Fernando should really be the straw that breaks the camels back and I say yes. Absolutely, yes. Without him, the Mets literally have no impact players on the horizon for possibly another four seasons aside from a reliever or two. I get the fact the Mets have three of the top thirty three picks, but to put your faith in three guys that have not been picked yet is shortsighted. That is a dangerous place to be and I fully expect Martinez to be an extremely valuable player. Getting seven or eight wins at the league minimum or under market price is a necessity these days.

For me, Fernando and Mulvey would be able to match Santana in wins that they bring to the table as soon as 2010. That does not even factor in the huge disparity in money paid to Johan and the money that the Mets need to fill those two holes on the market. That even dismisses the existence of Humber and Gomez. This all boils down to just how more important '08 and '09 is when compared to '10 and beyond.

You would not find many people who argue that Santana is better for this team immediately than all of those players combined, but you can certainly make an argument long term as to what deal is better. The Twins have a valuable commodity in Johan, but they need to understand that whatever team gets him gets one year under market and then pays out the nose.

The bottom line for the Twins is, do they think they have a shot to win it all this year? Do they believe the deals on the table bring them back more value than a late first round pick and a sandwich pick? The correct answers are 'no' and 'yes'. Popular move or not, the Twins would be getting value back from the Mets and I hope Omar plays his cards right. Also, With CC Sabathia and the Indians negotiations looking suspect, one has to wonder if this will weigh on the Mets minds as they move forward.

* * *

  • Mike and the Dog are douchebags who just will not admit when they do not know something or are wrong. The other day, Mad Dog was talking about how hard the ground is going to be in Green Bay and how much it will affect the game.

    You would expect him to know what he is talking about, right? Nope. Chaz Palminteri had to call in to tell them they actually heat the ground so it should be a nice and soft field since they keep it at about 55 degrees.

    After that, Mike proceeded along as if he knew this all along when he actually said nothing about it in the previous ten minutes of Mad Dog's rant. These two babbling idiots truly anger me for the simple fact that they are lazy. Give me a job where I just need to know sports and I will have a bit of a clue.

  • There was a joke article saying Juan Gonzalez signed with the Yankees, but it turns out that it was not too far fetched.

  • The Rangers signed Jason Jennings and that is a solid deal for them. They are always looking for pitching and he is a good pitcher that could really fit in well down there.

  • The Stache is back. Low risk move that could be nice. I do not really have much to say either way on this one.

  • Dumbest article ever? Perhaps.
  • Labels:

    15 Comments:

    Anonymous orangeandblueblood said...

    If the Mets trade Gomez, Humber, Mulvey, and Guerra for Santana they will be doing it for a one-time shot at the World Series in 2008. Following 2008 Alou will be retiring and there will be no internal option for a decent left fielder to fill the hole. An over paid, average player will be signed. Perez will become a free agent and with Boras as his agent he will come at a premium or he will be gone. Delgado will be done unless he has a serious come-back season. Even then his $16M option is too much for him when the money could be better spent on Texeria. Pedro becomes a free agent also and will demand a high dollar salary. Plus Santana will be getting his $20M. Unless the Wilpons increase payroll by about $40 million dollars in 2009 there will be some big holes. What's it gonna be, trade the chance for a long term run at repeat playoff appearances and hope that special year comes together and the team wins a World Series or trade the future for a one time shot at the World Series.

    I agree totally, F. Martinez should not be added to the deal for Sanchez. That would be a desperation move. I don't care what Steve Phillips and Duquet say. The only reason we need Santana is because Duquet traded away our ace for the wrong Zambrano. Why the hell does his opinion matter. If the Twins hold onto Santana and he rejects a trade at the trade deadline as is rumored, all they get is a draft pick in the bottom of the first round and a supplemental pick. Three of the 4 guys the Mets are currently offering is a better deal. Keep Humber and F. Mart and if the Twins want Santana in the AL still, so they have no chance of beating the Yankees or Red Sox go ahead and trade him to one of those teams. Pedro,Perez, Maine, Loshe/R. Hernandez, ElDuque/Pelfrey with Humber and Mulvey in the wings, an excellent offense, and a very good pen will win the NL East in 2008. Add Texeria and resign Perez in 2009 and the Mets will dominate the NL for years to come.

    1:37 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I would not call it a one time shot as I think they can figure RF out. Not sure how, but they can with another one year option which especially becomes more palatable if they can fill in 1st base with Dunn or Tex.

    Also, your numbers concern me also since the Mets need to spend about $28 million bringing back Ollie and Pedro, but I think they might be able to fit it, but they will undoubtably be raising payroll.

    So it is imperative that they get Pelfrey in the mix this year to get him moving in the right direction. Your last three sentences are gold and echo my sentiments. Swap out Humber for Neise and roll from there. Take it or leave it, the Mets have options.

    Sorry to keep harping on the same things, but I feel like I'm screaming into the wind here and my words are pounding me in the face.

    2:02 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I meant LF not RF. They will figure LF out...

    2:03 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    It still seems like its Gomez OR Fernando Martinez. I hope it stays that way.

    I think the Mets marginaly imrpoved themselves, addition by subtration in some cases, but the fact of hte matter is, the Mets win the division today by default because the Mets were a better team than the record showed last season.

    If the offer stays at Gomez, Humber, Mulvey, and Guerra, where are we at? Do we do it? Do you do it? I think I do it. I consider Humber a "lost cause" his production is replacable. Gomez is such a gamble that I don't mind seieng him gone. I think the only "real" value is Mulvey and Guerra. And Guerra is so far away that... I dunno it makes him expendable.

    One of the few things I hate in the media is lack of research, what's so hard?
    Take Skip Bayliss, that guy is such a tool. My brother who HATES sports with a passion, labeled him a douchebag the other day just by hearing him speak non-sense.
    Well with Skip Bayliss, he said something about Sammy Sosa's homeruns never counted, they were all after the Cubs were up by 5 runs. All it took was 3 minutes on baseball-reference.com to prove that wrong. What a tool!

    The only guy who has shown he's no fan of "cheats" is Lance Berkman. Take a look at this article, he's right.
    http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080115&content_id=2347131&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou

    3:34 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    If the offer stays at Gomez, Humber, Mulvey, and Guerra, where are we at? Do we do it? Do you do it? I think I do it. I consider Humber a "lost cause" his production is replacable. Gomez is such a gamble that I don't mind seieng him gone. I think the only "real" value is Mulvey and Guerra. And Guerra is so far away that... I dunno it makes him expendable.

    We are on the same page here. I only really miss Mulvey and Guerra which makes this a done deal for me. I love the upside potential of Gomez and people are high on him, but I share your skeptism. If that is what can get done, you have to do it, no?

    RE: media and their lack of research. Perhaps the most disturbing thing is that wrong information keep getting perpetuated and casual fans take it as gospel because they assume these people are experts.

    Of course they have no civil duty to give truth and are entitled to their opinions, but I think they should have some desire to actually be as truthful and objective as possible when coming to their own conclusions.

    Calling Willie vastly underpaid is another example when in fact he was not and BoSox manager Tito had just won the series and was paid about 1/3 less than Willie.

    Whatever. Not a big issue, but somewhat disturbing.

    Awesome link to Berkman. Now if more players put their money where their mouth is...

    3:56 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Oh and can congress hop off of baseball's dick!?

    Listening to ESPN, the investigation on Tejada might effect his status to play baseball in the U.S. the man just might get deported but that would be an extreme. Still though, the possibility is there.

    Just to add to the media and thier spin, I think in my opinion the MOST disturbing part is that it doesn't even apply to sports. Sadly enough it applies to politics which effects us much more than baseball news.

    4:09 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    I hate Willie Randolph

    4:09 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Me too.

    4:10 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    This has been the most boring off season ever!

    6:11 PM

     
    Anonymous orangeandblueblood said...

    The $40M dollars in added payroll came from summing 2009 contracts (From Cots Baseball web page)for key players like Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Castillo.....and subtracting losses like Perez, Alou, Pedro...then adding $20M for Santana, and guesses at what it will take to sign Perez (~$14M), Pedro (~$10M), LF & 1B. Not exact but ballpark estimates say the Mets will need a big jump in payroll for 2009. More than I expect the Wilpons will agree to. Which means holes in the team somewhere.

    I have no problem with accepting the loss of Guerra and Gomez for Santana. I accept more is needed, but I think giving Humber & Mulvey is too much. The Twins can pick one and a lower level guy to seal the deal. I prefer the Mets keep Humber. His second season back from TJ surgery should see his velocity increase and stamina improve. It seems to me the Mets have leverage in that they are the only NL team involved. Accepting the hugh salary Santana will get is OK, but that should temper the prospects necessary. The Mets are not desparate. They don't need Santana to erase the collapse. Sports writers and commentators keep saying they need Santana to contend, I hope Omar is not listening.

    Does anyone see Registar making the team and sticking for a full year? What was the point of selecting him in the Rule 5 draft? I keep searching for what I am missing about this guy but can't find any reason to select him unless they anticipate the Rockies not wanting him back.

    6:18 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Speaking of Rule 5, let's remember Santana himself was selected that way by the Marlins. After a trade to the Twins, it took some time to establish himself. Perhaps the Mets should just roll the dice and give the young guys a chance. As long as Philly and Atlanta don't get into it, I am all for just forgetting about the whole Santana issue.

    - Will

    11:07 PM

     
    Anonymous Two-By-Four said...

    Matt Cerrone over at Metsblog wrote:

    In a post to his blog for ESPN.com, Buster Olney writes…
    “Spoke with a talent evaluator recently who thinks that if the Twins are intent on swapping Johan Santana for a relatively modest package of prospects before the start of spring training, this may reflect some concern over the pitcher’s physical condition. In the aftermath of Santana’s 17-strikeout game against the Rangers on Aug. 19, there was some evidence of diminished velocity in the left-hander, and it was noted by at least one scout that he used his slider much less often.”
    As Olney points out, Santana has a 5.11 ERA during his final seven starts of last season.
    …on the other hand, i have heard some people suggest that santana became very distracted, and dejected after last season’s trade deadline, especially after the team gave up and traded Luis Castillo, who santana is very good friends with…
    Prior to the trade deadline last season, Santana had a 2.91 ERA.
    He had a 4.18 after the deadline.


    Can you imagine the Mets raping their farm system and then Santana breaks down?

    Cerrone’s response is somewhat idiotic and sends up red flags. If Santana allowed these distractions to affect him imagine how it will be in New York. Anyway a true competitor clears his mind on the mound of all distractions and concentrates on the job at hand. Even if he was distracted why should this affect the velocity of his fastball?

    12:23 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Careful Mike... Talking sense and using rational arguments rather than emotional, over the top, the sky is falling nonsense?? Better be careful, or the media will show up at your door looking to rumble. Or stop inviting you to their cocktail parties. Or whatever it is they do - cause it's sure as hell not watching and reading about sports.

    You and Benny are right on about research - someone throws crap out there, someone else repeats it, and it sticks forever. Like Jose Reyes for Johan Santana. Olney proposes it in his blog, now it's all over the place even when Omar comes right out and says no way in heck. Or the often cited claim that roids weren't illegal until 2000, when baseball specifically outlawed them in 1992. Good luck getting anyone to mention this though...

    Anyway, that's beside the point. Really just wanted to say thanks for talking sense, and many of us are right there with you. Humber, Mulvey, Gomez and Guerra for Santana, and that's it. Nothing else. And definitely no Martinez...

    Phew...I feel better...

    -ube

    12:30 AM

     
    Blogger Itsmetsforme said...

    where's the love for the stash? his cool confidence and tequilla smooth swing ought to be worth a few wins. Between the Castillo and him, i think Willie's got two good legs for the pivot.

    i keed.

    i would also say that this has been the most boring off season in recent memory, except for the fact of the milledge trade which i will never forgive Doh'mar for no matter how much the vast media conspiracy tries to distract me with the Minnesota slow dance or Roger Clemens ass.

    2:26 AM

     
    Blogger metsfanincincy said...

    Boring off season? Maybe. I think it may also be that this year's off season started during the last game of the World Series with the Gay-rod BS. It's been a long off season, man, and nothing has happened in a reasonable amount of time. The Gay-rod thing went on way too long and became soap opera-ish and, well, gay. The Clemens thing was kind of funny at first but now has gotten old and annoying (and gay). The Santana story lost it's cool long, long ago. All that and the marquis free agent on the market this year being Tori Over-rated Hunter added up to an annoying past 12 weeks. Has it really only been 12 weeks? It feels like 12 f-ing years! Hopefully when the Santana BS is over things will fall into place and there will be a feeling closure and all will be looking forward to the beginning of the season.

    O&BB, did you also substract Delgado's salary for 2009?

    9:29 AM

     

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