The Santana Babble Continues
I would apologize for my absence, but that would insinuate that I actually think I am important so I will skip that. However, I could not resist jumping back into the Johan Santana fray since that is all that seems to be going around these days. First, this tasty link.
Without Martinez, a 19-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder who jumped from rookie level to Double A last season, the Mets’ deal is too young for the Twins to gamble on, unless they were feeling lucky.
“If the Twins wanted to roll the dice, the Mets’ offer (with Martinez) could be the best deal,” Callis said.
Martinez is still three or four years away from being ready for the majors.
“(But his) offensive potential is significant,” Manuel said.
With Mauer, Morneau, Young, Slowey, etc. in the fold today and productive today, the Twins really cannot afford to gamble on young guys. However, the simple fact is the Mets talent could be the best, but they are taking a leap of faith and would have to place a lot of trust into their scouting department.
Chris (Hoboken, NJ): Ok Mr. Callis, I got a bone to pick with you. Every week you?re kind enough to answer the general what will it take for the Mets to acquire Johan, and some set of Mets prospects is thrown out for you to comment on, to which you always reply the Mets prospects aren?t enough for Johan. However, this week, you were quoted as saying that ?If the Twins wanted to roll the dice, the Mets? offer could be the best deal. (Martinez?s) offensive potential is significant. (He?s) a special offensive player?he can do anything he wants offensively.? So let me ask you, is F-mart, C-Gomez, K Mulvey, D. Guerrra, and P Humber enough or too much to get Johan? How would that offer compare to the Sox and Yanks offers, assuming one of Ellsbury, Hughes or Lester is included? Oh, and go buy the 2008 handbook!
Jim Callis: Wait a minute, Chris. I never said Martinez can do anything he wants offensively. In that article in the Boston Herald, I said the Mets' offer potential could be the best -- if it includes Martinez, Guerra and Gomez AND they all reach their potential. That's a big IF, because there's a significant gap between their present abilities and their ceilings. If someone wanted to gamble, that could be a big payoff. But you also could be left holding the bag if only one of those guys pans out as hoped. The problem with the Mets' packages is that Humber and Pelfrey have diminished value, Mulvey is interesting but not a frontline pitcher and their best players lack a lot of polish because they're so young. And yes, go buy the Handbook!
Of course, I am not interested in putting both Gomez and Fernando in there and would prefer to keep Fernando over Gomez, but it is not up to me and it seems like if the Mets can smell blood, they are going to go in for the kill. The temptation is seemingly just too strong, but I think they should stand firm and keep Fernando and let them figure the rest out. It is not their problem the Twins would prefer more big league ready plays and they just need to offer whatever is they can.
Concur! Get it done Omar…let sleeping dogs lie…..this is by far the most important winter of your career and all we have to show for it is Ryan Church, Brian Schneider, and Luis Castillo. Let’s not kid ourselves here….last year’s collapse was a complete embarrassment to the organization and to the fan base.
The above is from a commenter from somewhere on the interweb. Scary, right? The fact is all three of those guys do improve this ballclub over the '07 version by being on the opening day roster from day one, which is Omar's job. To actually improve this ballclub however he can improve it and not necessarily to do it a fan pleasing manner. Bill Smith should take note of that as well.
Even if everything else is kept equal and if Pedro can give some Glavine-esque league average innings, Church alone probably adds slightly more than three wins when you factor in his glove, which would have gotten the Mets into the playoffs.
The Mets were not all that far from the playoffs and while a huge addition like Santana will add about eights wins if Pedro can replace Glavine's production, Omar can get where he wants to go by adding peripheral pieces and filling in the cracks. One method gets you more ink, but you simply have to balance the future out.
I guess if the Mets felt like they had to go for it in '08 and '09, then whatever. Liquidate away, but this team has enough youth that should be poised for an extended run, which I would prefer. I have hit my saturation point with Mulvey, Humber, Gomez, and Guerra being the offer.
You may be asking yourself if Fernando should really be the straw that breaks the camels back and I say yes. Absolutely, yes. Without him, the Mets literally have no impact players on the horizon for possibly another four seasons aside from a reliever or two. I get the fact the Mets have three of the top thirty three picks, but to put your faith in three guys that have not been picked yet is shortsighted. That is a dangerous place to be and I fully expect Martinez to be an extremely valuable player. Getting seven or eight wins at the league minimum or under market price is a necessity these days.
For me, Fernando and Mulvey would be able to match Santana in wins that they bring to the table as soon as 2010. That does not even factor in the huge disparity in money paid to Johan and the money that the Mets need to fill those two holes on the market. That even dismisses the existence of Humber and Gomez. This all boils down to just how more important '08 and '09 is when compared to '10 and beyond.
You would not find many people who argue that Santana is better for this team immediately than all of those players combined, but you can certainly make an argument long term as to what deal is better. The Twins have a valuable commodity in Johan, but they need to understand that whatever team gets him gets one year under market and then pays out the nose.
The bottom line for the Twins is, do they think they have a shot to win it all this year? Do they believe the deals on the table bring them back more value than a late first round pick and a sandwich pick? The correct answers are 'no' and 'yes'. Popular move or not, the Twins would be getting value back from the Mets and I hope Omar plays his cards right. Also, With CC Sabathia and the Indians negotiations looking suspect, one has to wonder if this will weigh on the Mets minds as they move forward.
You would expect him to know what he is talking about, right? Nope. Chaz Palminteri had to call in to tell them they actually heat the ground so it should be a nice and soft field since they keep it at about 55 degrees.
After that, Mike proceeded along as if he knew this all along when he actually said nothing about it in the previous ten minutes of Mad Dog's rant. These two babbling idiots truly anger me for the simple fact that they are lazy. Give me a job where I just need to know sports and I will have a bit of a clue.
Labels: johan santana