Trouble Brewin'
Ut oh. Mike Pelfrey has looked worse and worse as time goes on and I still like him long term. I am betting big on 'ole Mikey boy, but right now? I want something a little more.
With Lohse signing for such a bargain deal (and he is a BIG bargain), you have to wonder what Omar was thinking. Or maybe wasn't thinking.... Again. This is akin to buying a brand new Ferrari and not buying insurance.
The Mets went out and built this magical and fantastical team that has me seeing lollipops, puppy dogs, unicorns, and rainbows everywhere I go and there is a very large hole that could have been covered up for about 3% of the total payroll. How could you not be in on Lohse at this point if you are Omar.
I am not going to say it is shameful, because that is too much....actually...fuck that. Shameful. Every team needs an extra starter or two and the Mets have a glaring depth issue at this point. I really think the Mets will be fine without him, but there will be big headaches and it will be much closer of a race then it needed to be.
The lone Met signed through 2013 is Johan Santana, who just inked a six-year, $137.5 million deal. David Wright's current six-year, $55 million package expires the previous season, although the Mets have an option for 2013 at $16 million. Barring a trade, teenage prodigy Fernando Martinez would still be under the Mets' control, having turned 24 years old.
$16 million for the best player in baseball in 2013? I just got chills.
"I'm really disappointed that I fell behind a lot of guys," said Pelfrey, who walked two, struck out one and threw 88 pitches. "I really wanted to be more aggressive. I wish I was a little more efficient than what I was."
Labels: kyle lohse, rotation
posted by michael o. at 12:08 PM
25 Comments:
Mike - I was on board with the on-the-cheap Lohse signing, but I think I know what Omar was thinking. Pelfrey, right now, is better than Lohse. I saw Lohse pitch a lot last year for the Reds. He was a bargain for St. Louis and he would have been good insurance for the Mets, but he sucks. Plain as that. Pelfrey merely needs to not suck too bad to be an upgrade over Lohse.
12:48 PM
picking up from yesterday, wondering why you're so optimistic on church. without checking stats, i'm pretty sure i remember him sucking the last two years. as far as crisp, i do know he makes good catches.
anyway, back from hawaii and not happy about it. much sweller over there... for those interested i got some pics on my website... www.jakedenton.com
jake
2:11 PM
Duque is going down sometime this year and maybe not as effective with his new windup.
I still hold out hope Pelf will get it together. I don't think he's got the ability at all to miss bats. Everything I hear about Pelf says he has an amazing sinking fastball. Anybody know if there's a reason why he hasn't turned into a a sinker baller (a la Derek Lowe)? In Lowe's 21 win season, he had a K/9 of 5.21. Pelf's career K/9 is 5.55. It's possible to do well with a good sinker and a low K rate.. especially at a park like Shea. I think I read somewhere that 85% sinkers that year. The last two paragraphs of this hardball times article gives me a lot of hope:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/another-look-at-the-sinker/
Pelf has to control his walks though
Hopefully Lohse wouldn't make a difference, but it woulda been nice to have him as insurance.
2:12 PM
" I think I read somewhere that 85% sinkers that year."
That should read:
" I think I read somewhere that 85% of pitches lowe threw were sinkers that year."
2:13 PM
Church is a doubles machine. If they let him play he is capable of 50 2B, 20 HR, and 90 RBI with an OBP of .350. This would be in line with his last two seasons extended to 600 AB. Guy's got lots of potential in '08. I'm optimistic. Let him play!
2:29 PM
I'm a bit shocked actually. Glaring lack of depth seems to be with the Cards at the moment. I'm feeling pretty good in comparison. Our pitchers I think will stay relatively healthy. I like the changed windup for El Duque, and I agree that Pelfrey is probably comparable to Lohse. If we're going to see Pelfrey on the Mets long term, it probably has got to be this year for him to settle in (which I think he started to do last year).
Also, I wonder how many doubles Church hit last year against the Mets bullpen? Maybe I don't want to know...
2:45 PM
Speaking of Pelfrey, everyone should read that post on the blog Brooklyn Mets Fan, good stuff regarding hisnew shirt.
HOpefully by 2013 I'm rich enough to be able to afford those All-Star seats.
Jason VArgas is out for like 3-4 months.
Cool story on SI.com by Jon Heyman, Johan would have gone to Texas IF Johan wanted to go to Texas because the Twins and Rangers agreed on prospects. WHompers.
2:52 PM
Jake - those photos on your website are beautiful man!!!! wow. I wanna go now! great waves.
I'm too hungover to talk mets right now!!! ;) y'all have a great weekend!
3:05 PM
thanks dep -- you should have seen the thong shots i was too discrete to post.
by the way, mike, i think we're due for another full blown bash willie post... his comments about jesus martinez are so annoying. he sounds like a broken record that's badly scratched (redundancy intended). i know i used to give him the benefit of the doubt but needless to say backing him up for his leadership skills no longer flies after the biggest collapse ever. i don't know about you guys but i'm still having a hard time thinking about baseball. couldn't even get excited for fantasy but you guys have fun i'll probably regret not signing up.
jake
4:06 PM
metsfanincincy...I'm not doubting that Pelfrey might be just as productive as Lohse, but it about depth man. It's all about the depth. Pelfrey can wait a year, you know?
Jake...Check his XBHs. He is not horrible against lefties if you look at his 3 year splits and he got jerked about a bit. I think he will thrive here....20 homers...40 doubles...85 RBIs...and solid defense.
RE: Thong shots...post 'em man. Mike wants to see some ass.
I have the Willie bashing post. Just need to fine tune it. It's looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong.
Scott...also, it is not like I don't see Pelfrey getting some serious innings. SOMEONE will go down. History tells us that. You need to make up a lot of starts throughout the year. It's all about the depth.
Benny..Vargas too? Not that he is special, but he was a warm body. One more reason for Lohse!
Dep...have a good one.
4:21 PM
Ahhhhh beer makes it all better!!! Now i can talk again :)
Thongs?!?!??!?! Are they available via email or something???
not fair! all the chicks I'm gonna see and hit on tonight will be like wearing all their clothes n stuff. Thongs need convincing from them!!!!
My real first name is Mike too....so I'll just agree with Mike wants to see some ass!!!!!!
I saw a Billy Crystal comp today (in a BP chat i think) of Julio Franco 2007. that made me laugh, almost the same age lol
Rock on my blue n orange brothers.
7:19 PM
While seeing Lohse go to the Cards on the cheap was disheartening, couldn't it be Omar is laying on the low with the whole Freddy Garcia move? He was in camp two weeks ago with his agents "just saying hello."
I think Omar will be in and in hard come June, especially if Duque can't break camp with the Mets and Pelf struggles at the start of the season. Who else is there to even consider being we traded Humber and Mulvey?
I like Church. He's a classic example of a guy whose name scares you, but his numbers can be decent if given a chance. See: John Maine prior to his arrival.
Three games for Shelley for that slide into second the other day. Dick. And this tidbit from Heyman on SI.com makes me smile:
"Billy Crystal, classic bandwagon jumper, never should have gotten an at-bat from the Yankees. I don't care if he played for Long Beach (N.Y.) High 40-some years ago. And by the way, if he's such a great fan, where was he before 1996? Not anywhere near the Yankees, that's for sure."
Didn't he wear a Mets hat in City Slickers?
7:23 PM
Of course you don’t have to go to Hawaii for thongs as they’re all over Florida (even though it’s supposedly illegal). From South Beach to Cocoa Beach to Daytona Beach it abounds in ass. The best time is when the Canadians come down in February; especially the French Canadian girls (used to date one) that wear the smallest bikinis. Of course the crème de la crème is in Brazil. If by some chance you ever get the opportunity to visit Rio de Janeiro at Mardi Gras time by all means do it.
Maine with an outstanding mound performance against the Marlins. I would still like him to be our 4th starter alternating left-handed and right-handed pitchers for spots 1 thru 4 in the rotation.
I expect to see other teams throw as many left-handed pitchers against the Mets as possible. If that does come to pass both Church and Schneider could have subpar years. Church’s stats against left-handed pitchers are not that bad, but then again, they’re not that good either. There may have been a reason the Nats jerked him around. Like maybe he is not that good. The Mets need another strong right-handed bat. BTW the trade may have been the best thing for LM. I understand he is working his ass off and could very well take the next step towards stardom.
I thought the Yankees were going to use Billy Crystal as a pinch runner if somebody reaches 3rd and have him crash into the catcher.
12:57 AM
I''m pretty late into the Pelfrey divide - truth is, I've been a no show around here for a bunch of very busy weeks! - but having seen him pitch twice over the last two weeks, there's really not much to say beyond the obvious. Which is that he's still the same pitcher: touted as a ground ball pitcher, he should be a strikeout and ground ball pitcher! His failure to have a consistent strikeout pitch at this point diminishes his value even in relief. He should have a long season in AAA, away from the pressure of justifying his draft position.
That said, interesting situation the Mets have regarding the last bench and relief players. In my mind, both Pagan and Gotay deserve to be on the team (esp, since Gotay is a goner if the Mets attempt to slip him through waivers). With Alou out early (Gotay too) that's not a too big issue, but you do have to wonder who's more important to the Mets long term plans Valentin or Gotay. I'd argue the latter; the Mets veteran preferences argue the former.
As for the pen, I'd really like to see the Mets hold on to Register, and I'm sure that Omar is going to attempt at least to trade a minor leaguer to the Rocks for his permanent rights once Duaner comes off of the disabled list, which is where I expect him to open the year.
You could argue that Sosa could be traded and replaced by Figueroa I suppose, but I see no reason to trade Sosa for a right handed hitting outfielder anymore. In my mind, Pagan and Chavez offer a fine enough bridge to Alou and cover any potential lefty liability for Church. But once Alou is back there's a big roster decision to be made, and it ain't easy.
Barring injuries the Mets may actually be able to parlay bullpen depth into a decent prospect come July.
9:37 AM
This blogger uses stats to prove the Mets will finish 3rd in their division.
An excerpt:
the Atlanta Braves are the toughest team in the N.L. East, probably even the entire league. They will win the division. Quite easily, I might add. Their 2007 third-place finish was an aberration and not consistent with how well the Braves played last season. The ’07 Braves had a better runs scored / runs allowed differential (+77) than the Phillies (+71) and the Mets (+54). (Yes: the Mets probably ought to have finished third in the East instead of needing a 5-12 swan dive to blow a sure thing.) The ‘08 Braves are even better and will win 95-100 games. Why am I so confident in the Braves? Simply put, they’ve gone back to the formula that served them so well in the 1990s when Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine delivered twenty win seasons and division titles to Hotlanta. They’ve assembled the best pitching staff they’ve had in years in Atlanta with Smoltz, Glavine (returned from the Mets after a five-year stint in Queens), Tim Hudson and Chuck James. Look at how the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects the four to pitch in 2008:
Smoltz: 17-7, 3.22 ERA
Hudson: 15-9, 3.67 ERA
Glavine: 11-10, 3.99 ERA
James: 12-8, 3.86 ERA
Any team facing that rotation should weep. Added in is the problem that the Braves will have a healthy Chipper Jones (Bill James Handbook projects: 105 Runs Created in ‘08) and a full season from Mark Teixeira, who hit 17 home runs and 56 RBI in just 54 games with the Braves in ’07 (Handbook projection for 2008: 36 HR, 120 RBI, 121 Runs Created). True the Braves lost the talented defensive wiz Andruw Jones, a big reason why their pitchers did so well for so long, but they made up for it with the acquisition of Mark Kotsay from the A’s. Kotsay's .899 Zone Rating (ZR) was roughly comparable to Jones' .921, which suggests that their defense will continue to be very good. The ’08 Braves clearly improved on the ’07 squad and will be contenders …
The question is: does the acquisition of Johan Santana alter the problems the Mets have? Absolutely not. Sure, the Mets now have a terrific starting pitcher who will contend for the Cy Young Award. However, the Mets 88 wins in 2007 were built on unexpectedly strong performances from John Maine (15-10, 3.91 ERA) and Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56 ERA). Count on Maine and Perez to regress closer to average in 2008. Additionally, the team lost Tom Glavine, an experienced starter, to the Braves. Basically, the Mets rotation is going to consist of Maine, Perez, Santana and Pedro Martinez, provided that Pedro’s arm holds up. Good luck.
11:37 PM
Basically, the Mets rotation is going to consist of Maine, Perez, Santana and Pedro Martinez, provided that Pedro’s arm holds up. Good luck.
And the fact it IS made up of the current best pitcher on the planet, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez who should get better and not worse is what makes me excited!
12:37 AM
Benny he basically spins things to arrive at these conclusions. It’s obvious he is a lawyer. He should be in politics.
BTW I read at Metsblog that Valentin could be suffering from a pinched nerve and may very well retire.
I watched part of the Yankees/Sox game today and once again I was impressed with the physical fitness of the Yankees. Some of their players are in the best shape that I remember seeing them.
Even though Colon was hammered he was reaching 94 with his fastball and claimed he had no pain. He will begin the season in the minors but if he remains healthy he could be a major addition to the Bosox staff.
Here is my tongue in cheek rant about some of the Mets’ players physical conditioning.
If Raul Casanova or Robinson Cancel or Ramon Castro gains anymore weight when they catch they will block out the advertisements on the fence behind them. And since the umps like to position themselves between the catcher and hitter they may find a compromise position behind the pitcher as in softball. With those three in the clubhouse I wonder if any of the other players partake of the pre and post game spreads. Those three human vacuum cleaners probably consume every morsel before any of the other players can reach around those three for even one bite. I don’t know if Willie stresses physical fitness or not (I don’t have access to the clubhouse and from some of the descriptions I have read the clubhouse is tighter than the Nixon Whitehouse) but based on these three I would have to say probably not. If they gain anymore weight the Mets will have to hire a paleontologist to treat them.
1:09 AM
Re: Duque from an anonymous Met official quoted by Marty Noble:
"Who knows what he's doing and why?" One of the Mets' observers said with annoyance in his tone. "He might be ticked off because he had to come in and work on the off-day. He probably didn't want to pitch at 10 o'clock in the morning. Maybe he didn't sleep. You can't tell with him.
"He saw everyone sitting back there [behind the plate]. Maybe it's just a set-up. He wants to prove everyone wrong. Even we can't tell."
81 mph on the gun and no leg kick to hide what he's throwing. Not good.
7:57 PM
Is Mike gone on vacation now????
what about us?!?!?!?!
this just sux!
Viva los mets!
2:15 PM
Can someone direct me to a Mets blog that updates more than once a week?
Jsut kidding. C'mon back, buddy. We need you!
12:36 PM
Man, I am so sick of Mike Pelfrey.
3:07 PM
The Mets have to send Pelfrey down and if he develops, fine. And if he doesn’t develop he won’t be the 1st nor the last player with immense physical ability that failed to live up to his potential.
If El-Dugue wishes to continue pitching he has to have the bunion removed or apply to the Long Island Ducks. You can hope he becomes the right-handed Jamie Moyer but left-handers seem to have more success throwing that type of hog-slop than right-handers.
9:00 PM
The thing about Pelfrey is that I wrote that at 3pm, before he gave up the additional 7 runs.
Horrible.
10:54 PM
Mike please come back. I have been reduced to reading the posts at Metsblog. At least I have found where the Neanderthals are. No, they are not in Geico commercials nor on their own TV show (or has that been canceled) nor did they disappear after the last Ice Age. No, they are alive and posting at Metsblog. :)
2:19 AM
From mlb.com:
SURPRISE, Ariz. -- The Rangers are close to signing right-handed pitcher John Patterson, who was released by the Washington Nationals earlier this week.
The Rangers have a set rotation of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Kason Gabbard and Luis Mendoza but are interested in adding Patterson on a Minor League contract for protection against injury. They have already lost pitcher Brandon McCarthy until May because of severe inflammation in his elbow.
2:39 AM
Post a Comment
<< Home