It's Monday and We're Mediocre!

For now at least....

I say that thinking maybe, just maybe the Mets are poised to break out. Jose has his OPS+ up to 117 and is looking like an MVP again. Shame on everyone who started to say crazy things like the Mets should have dished him off for Santana and not Gomez (102 OPS+ in the OF...a 117 OPS+ at short is miles more valuable), Mulvey (4.07 ERA and .279 BAA in Rochester), Humber (5.53 ERA and .300 BAA in Rochester), and Guerra (4.23 ERA). I like all those guys and still believe in them long term, but Jose Reyes is worth more than all of them in a trade.

The Mets are now tied with Atlanta who has been in a bit of a free fall and are 3.5 games in back of the Phillies. One game of .500 means the Mets are pretty close to under .500 which is a bad thing for a $140 million team. After going 1-7 from May 14th through May 26th, the Mets have went 5-1 to get over the hump of respectability and need to apply the pressure with San Fran, San Diego, Texas, Seattle, and Colorado in their not so distant future.

Sure I am stating the obvious, but the obvious is not always that obvious. Take Aaron Heilman for example. He is murdering righties to the tune of a .209/.291/.239 while getting murdered by lefties to the tune of a .391/.473/.783 line. And yet he faces way too many lefties. Why is this? I have no idea but he has to be a ROOGY or demoted to figure things out. Those are the two options. I still think he has some skill, but it is not showing itself right now. Enter the problem....Feliciano is playing more like a LOOGY and now the Mets have two ROOGYs.

That is entirely too many guys who have trouble with batters from the opposite side of the plate. Schoeneweis has been great, but still showing a bit of a LOOGY split. This bullpen has the ability to be tremendous, but Feliciano and Heilman need to figure out how they got guys from the opposite side of the plate out in 2007 or else they will be in trouble. Simply too many specialists and bullpen that is not deep enough. If Dirty can actually stick this time, that will be a big boon and I think Vargas should help out in the pen as well, but right now, Heilman should be a ROOGY with Smith and Feliciano picking up more of a role as a non-specialist until something works itself out.

* * *

Keith Law talks draft and it seems as though the Mets might have to rethink their choice of picks.

Brett Lawrie is heavily in Cincinnati's mix at No. 7, while Jason Castro has popped up at No. 8 to the White Sox or perhaps at No. 9 to Washington. If the Reds don't take a college pitcher, then both Houston (Aaron Crow?) and Texas (Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich) will likely go in that direction, unless a top player falls to Texas due to signability concerns.

Castro was who the Mets were targeting with one of their two first rounds picks and Law mused that Lawrie might be a fit for the Mets who are looking for more positional depth.

With so many bad managers out there, you would think Wally Backman would get a shot.

"All I need is an interview," Wally Backman said. "If they want the best person to take care of their players, I know I'm the right guy. I'll earn my spot."

Backman wasn't talking about Willie Randolph's job. He was talking about any job in the New York Mets organization or any job in affiliated baseball. Because each major league team has about seven minor league teams, that's about 200 managerial jobs. Backman, a three-time manager of the year award winner, is not good enough for one of those?

What is the harm in giving him a spot in the farm to see how he does?

Mark Prior = D - O - N - E

Jay Bruce? Pretty good. And really, this really shows you a thing or two about drafting. The Mets were down to Pelfrey and Bruce in the 2005 draft and they went with Pelfrey. Not that I could argue all that much at the time because Pelfrey looked special, but their age and perceived 'closeness' to the bigs probably factored in.

Jay Bruce owns a cool 331 OPS+ (albeit in six games) at 21 years old and looks like a super star and Mike Pelfrey owns an 81 ERA+ at 24 (soon to be 25) and is still trying to find his way. Who do you think would help more this season? Draft the top talent on the board and operate in no other fashion. The rest will work itself out and they really need to take note of this for the upcoming draft.

Kunz is in AA with a 3.91 ERA. I would have preferred a high school guy with huge upside than a close to the bigs reliever. Enough with the draft disasters of the past few years and loosen the purse strings and get some fucking talent.

Pedro is more of a character to me these days than a big part of this team's success. It is nice to have him around an all, but I am not expecting much. That is not to say he can not and will not add much, but I think people should temper their expectations on what type of impact he will have on this team. I think he adds to the clubhouse in a big way, but I find it hard to pin the happiness of the team on one guy.

I used to think otherwise, but I have changed my mind. He might help out the bullpen by pushing Vargas out there, but that will remain to be seen as a big help until Vargas starts producing out there.

Pelfrey has been bad, but not bad enough to jettison him back to the minors. How bad would any one of us rip another organization for taking a big league retread like Vargas, who has done well, over a guy who might be a big part of the team's future?

I think Pelfrey needs to stay. Vargas has an ERA+ of 90 vs. Pelfrey's ERA+ of 81. Vargas is 30 going on 31 and Pelfrey is 24 going on 25. Unless Pelfrey blows up, he needs to stay in the rotation and the Mets have to think about what they really want from him because right now the difference is minimal. If they are done with him and think he offers nothing, then move on. If they still think he can offer something, as I do, he 100% needs to stay.

Ryan Church is still playing some insanely good ball. He was concussed and just came back so I get batting him sixth, but he needs to start hitting in the top third of the order. Bat him 2nd or 3rd and adjust accordingly. I would not mind getting Church more RBI opportunities and more protection.

Enter in the problem....Castillo now has an OPS+ of 98 and has become league average. But it is the worst league average you can be with his nine XBHs. Sure he steals a few bases, but with the exception of his recent power surge, does not offer much thump. Give me some thump through the top of order and I'll show you a team that can wear out the opposing starting pitchers quickly.

Tatis has been playing well and the Mets should ride him like a rented mule.

At least Aaron has a good support system... Just so crazy how one of the top relievers in the bigs can go to crap. I still believe he can turn it around, but now you have to wonder if it is more mental than anything else.

BP has some valuable insight into Johan.

When Santana was supposedly heading to the Red Sox or Yankees, there were whispers that his problems with the long ball would be exacerbated there, due to their parks' respective leanings towards aiding offense. When he was eventually dealt to the Mets, these whispers were silenced, thanks to the offense-dampening Shea Stadium. However, what we have seen from Santana in 2008 belies the nature of the stadium, as his HR/9 has climbed from 1.4 to 1.5 per nine. Granted, he's gone from giving up 30 homers per 200 innings to 32 over the same time frame, but the thing that has Mets fans worried is that he was supposed improve, at least superficially, thanks to a league switch and move to a pitcher-friendly haven.

This has not happened for a few reasons. First, Santana has lost additional velocity. He's dipped another half-a-mile per hour on his fastball, which had already dropped from 93.1 to 91.7 mph. He rarely used his cutter in the past, but it's been cut out of the equation entirely at this point. The past two seasons have shown Santana using his fastball more so than in the past, despite its status as an inferior pitch relative to what he was capable of before. It's a bit much to say Santana's lost it—he's still one of the top pitchers in the NL thanks to low walk totals and a still-excellent 7.9 K/9—but this is not the Santana the Mets thought they were trading for, the one they signed to pitch for them through 2013. Though it has not hurt them too much in 2008—the Mets have other problems to focus on outside of Santana's rising homer totals—it's something that's going to become bothersome and problematic in the future if their expensive ace can't figure out a way to pitch his way out of this recent trend.

It is hard to say he has been a complete disappointment, but his drop in velocity and the fact he is not as dominating as expected is worrisome. Pedro was more dominating in his first year as a Met at four years older. While Johan has basically been in line with his 2007 performance, I think we all expected more.

Lucky # 15

John Maine pitched a tight game last night and ended up without the victory thanks to a some late inning hijinks. With Heilman in the game, Willie lifted him with two outs and men on first and third. He brought Feliciano to face a lefty and he failed to get an out. Then, Mota is brought in to take care of the problem and predictably proceeded to melt down.

"He shouldn't be caught up in the crowd," Randolph said. "For the team and for us he needs to get over the hump. I'm going to keep going to him. He's got some of the best stuff in our bullpen. He needs to continue to work to be more consistent with things."

First, let me admit how utterly and completely wrong I was as it relates to Mota. He is useless. However, only one person seems to not see that and I fear he will be used for the remainder of the year in big innings and used in the playoffs as well. Second, Willie's blunder goes beyond using Mota, but why pull your 8th inning guy who has been great in the second half when the going gets tough? Isn't that precisely what he should be able to navigate himself out of?

His 2.56 ERA in the second half is tight. Let Heilman work out of his own jams because he is your second best reliever out of the bullpen. He is equally adept at getting righties and lefties out and while Feliciano is obviously more adept at getting lefties out, there was no reason to use him. And if you had to use him, why use him against one batter? Righties are batting .211 against Pedro #2 and a cool .295 against Mota. Be afraid Met fans when Willie has to manage. Reasoning gets completely tossed out the window.

* * *

Gotay made a great play in the field yesterday and I think it is time we put more faith in his glove. I'm not basing everything off of one play. Yes, the guy has made some mistakes but he is young and can get better. He has shown he has some ability out there so there is reason to be optimistic.

Beltran is stud.

Piazza is not ready to retire and will be playing for his third team in as many years after leaving the Mets.

This is really such a non-story right now. How about the Mets worry about the World Series and worry about Glavine in the off-season.

From johnf in the comments last night:

Glavine is guaranteed up to $13M (based on 200 IP) from the Mets if he wants to come back, not 4-7M. It is his option, not the Mets.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/new-york-mets.html

Tom Glavine p
1 year/$10.5M (2007), plus 2008 player option

* re-signed as a free agent 11/06
* 07:$7.5M, 08:$9M player option ($3M buyout)
* 2008 player option:
o guaranteed with 160 IP in 2007
o additional $1M (up to $13M) for each additional 10 IP in 2007
o may be declined by Glavine if it becomes guaranteed

Andy is not mulling retirement as much as he is looking for another year tagged onto his player option at a hefty price.

El Duque's foot is still hurting and if it is hurting as the Mets head into the playoffs, he has to take a seat or head into the bullpen. It is that simple. The Mets are too deep to head out there with a injured starter.

Weiner ponders the viability of a third NY team.

Over the five decades since the Dodgers and Giants left New York, no one has suggested putting a third team in the New York City marketplace. No one, that is, until the owner of the Oakland Athletics, Lewis Wolff, spoke to a New York Times reporter recently about placing a second Major League Soccer franchise in the area. Wolff told the Times ,"Frankly, I'd like to see a third baseball team in New York."

Could the area support one? 100% yes. Should it happen? It would be good for baseball since it is still such a tremendous market, but it will never happen. New Jersey? Maybe, but I fear any New Jersey team will fall to the problems the Devils and Nets face when people are forced to fight through traffic to get to a weekday game. With no effective mass transit to get people to the games from work to the game on time, it is virtually impossible.

The Mets are holding onto homefield advantage by one game. With such a big lead in the NL East it might seem OK for Willie continuing to manage without much thought, but I want homefield throughout the playoffs and Willie needs to wake up a bit.

Is Aaron Healthy?

Obviously we have not had enough time to discern Aaron's effectiveness in 2007, but I cannot help but get the feeling something is a bit off. I do not think think he is lapsing into a depression over not starting because he still cares. He is visibly pissed when he does not perform and though he prefers to start, he is still giving everything he has to relieving and I truly believe that.

It is too soon to really look at stats because he has decent enough stats for this time of year, but he just does not appear to be in vintage Heilman form. His K's are down, but again, it's 6.2 innings of ball. However, it should be noted that he has the least amount of innings pitched out of every Met pitcher. He has also only pitched two games in a row once this season. That coupled with his surgery for his tennis elbow and him sitting out some of the pre-season with tendinitis hints to me that something might be going on with him.

Though he isn't that far off pace of where he was the same time last year, he certainly is not getting much work comparatively with the other pitchers for being their go to arm outside of Billy Wagner. Consider me a bit concerned at this point and Jorge Sosa has been great at AAA and might become and important figure in this Mets bullpen before the year is out.

* * *

ENDY!!!!! That drag bunt to win the game made me giggle like a school girl. LoDuca had a similar idea earlier, but Endy is a better bunter and executed it better. After the Mets lost a tough game on Sunday, you really would have hated to see a spectacular pitching performance by The Duque wasted and as Ron Darling said last night, the legend grows.

I hate Aaron Cook. Really, he was impressive and his sinker appears to be pretty nasty. I think the Met bats were a bit off, but he was sharp and didn't help things. Between Hirsch, Cook, and Francis, maybe his team will have a solid trio of starters to build upon.

Minor League Update:

• Chan Ho got lit up again, but Carlos Gomez had a huge day at the plate in New Orleans' win over Albuquerque. Gomez went 2 for 5 with three runs scored and an RBI to inch closer back to .300.
  
  
• Kevin Mulvey pitched well in Binghamton's loss to New Hampshire. He went five innings and gave up four hits, three runs, no earned runs, and no walks while striking out three.
  
  
• Jon Niese had better days as he went 2.2 innings and gave up ten hits, six runs, and three earned runs as he dropped to 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA.
  
  
• Hey...maybe the Mets can recoup some of the $900,000 they gave Matt Durkin yet. He started for Savannah in their loss to Charleston and went 5.2 innings and gave up four hits, one run, no earned runs, and no walks while striking out four

Yankee fans are starting to get restless...

[11:33] yankeescum: oh new york baseball, what a weekend
[11:33] me (aka the good guy): willie is a stupid man
[11:33] me (aka the good guy): really not a good manager
[11:34] yankeescum: can say the same for torre
[11:34] me (aka the good guy): of course
[11:34] yankeescum: he was exposed this weekend
[11:34] me (aka the good guy): i've been saying that for years!
[11:43] yankeescum: what happened to you guys....when I turned off the game it was 6-2 mets
[11:43] me (aka the good guy): Willie happened.
[11:44] yankeescum: who in your pen imploded?
[11:44] me (aka the good guy): Burgos had retired the first two handily.
[11:44] me (aka the good guy): Then Green dropped a ball.
[11:44] me (aka the good guy): With Kelly Johnson up (a lefty), Willie tries to get cute.
[11:45] me (aka the good guy): Burgos deals with lefties better than Schoenweiss and was cruising, but being a righty, he wanted the lefty/lefty matchup even if the lefty cannot get lefties out better than said righty.
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): so, he brings in Schoenweiss despite the fact Felciano is the only true lefty specialist.
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): Johnson gets on and then BAM!
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): Three run jack... 6-6.
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): Then Heilman gave up a three runs.
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): 9-6
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): game over.
[11:46] me (aka the good guy): fire willie.
[11:46] yankeescum: i hate when mgrs go with the lefty/lefty, righty/righty matchups because it's what your "supposed to do" per the book
[11:47] yankeescum: torre tried to get cute last night....used pettitte in the 6th
[11:47] me (aka the good guy): i saw that.
[11:47] me (aka the good guy): i'm not against that stuff though
[11:47] yankeescum: after throwing 90+ pitches on friday
[11:47] me (aka the good guy): out of the box thinking.
[11:47] me (aka the good guy): but he throws a side session on Sunday anyway probably
[11:47] me (aka the good guy): and it worked before, no?
[11:48] me (aka the good guy): not ideal, but your bullpen stinks.
[11:48] yankeescum: where the hell is farnsworth?
[11:48] me (aka the good guy): you'd rather have him in?
[11:48] yankeescum: let the bum earn his money
[11:48] yankeescum: torre doesnt even know who farnsworth is
[11:49] me (aka the good guy): ha
[11:49] me (aka the good guy): well, i'm not shocked willie is the way he is if he learned from Torre
[11:49] me (aka the good guy): Willie uses his gut too much instead of using his brain.
[11:49] yankeescum: fire 'em all
[11:49] me (aka the good guy): word up

That was from Monday....This was from today...

[16:51] yankeescum: I'd take el duque at this point. oh boy.
[16:52] me (aka the good guy): classic
[16:52] me (aka the good guy): you guys are in trouble
[16:52] me (aka the good guy): one game out of last.
[16:52] yankeescum: yes, it's quite concerning
[16:53] yankeescum: in true irony, arod having his best start ever and the yanks are flailing

Flailing indeed. With the loss to the D-Rays, they are now sitting in sole possession of last place. On April 24th 2005, the Yankees were tied for last place with the Devil Rays at 8-11. In 2004, they were 8-10 though they were not in last place. In fact, you would have to go all the back to 1985 to see the Yankees in sole possession of last place.

As I stated in the comments in yesterday's post, it is not that I think the Yankees are bad. Quite the contrary, but this division is simply to improved for their rotation. As of right now, their starters have a 5.65 ERA and 4.69 K/9. The obvious thing is that they will improve with Mussina, Wang, and Hughes in the fold, but that still does not set them to far above everyone else. I fully expect there to be one 90 win team in the AL East and that is the Red Sox based on the strength of their starting pitching. I envision the Yankees winning 88 games, which is certainly a respectable total but also not one that will get them their division or the Wild Card. I think they will hit, but they will not have a cake walk and will be challenged this year more than ever.

Time for Pelfrey to go out and throw strikes tomorrow. One of the big pluses for him was that he was a hard thrower with good control. He has not had that in the bigs and he needs to trust his stuff and not worry about getting hit. Maybe that isn't the case, but it certainly doesn't seem that way to me. I would like to see him attack hitters more and use all three of his pitches from the start of the game and worry about saving them for later when there actually is a later.