No No, No, No No No, No No

Joe Posnanski had a nice post about something weighing heavily on our feeble minds.

There are so many fun things to be found in The Bill James Handbook. I was glancing through it again in my flu-ridden stupor and ran across his pitchers most likely to throw a no-hitter along with their percentages.

1. Scott Kazmir, 24%
2. Erik Bedard, 23%
3. Jake Peavy, 20%
4. Johan Santana, 17%
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 13%
6. A.J. Burnett, 12%
7. Chris Young, 12%
8. Tim Lincecum, 12%
9. Javier Vazquez, 11%
10. Oliver Perez, 11%

Mind you, this actually has some statistical relevance. There was actual thought and number crunching that helped comprise this list. I am a bit shocked at Vazquez's inclusion here, but the rest have that domination factor. When they are on, they are unhittable and they have devastating out pitches that are second to none when they are working. Joe also assembles his own list in a non-scientific manner, but it is hard to argue with his list.

1. Johan Santana.

I’m stunned that not only has Santana never thrown a no-hitter, he’s never thrown a one-hitter. He’s never thrown a two-hitter. Of course, the reason for that is simple: Santana does not complete games — the guy has six complete games in his career so far.

You have to agree with his #1 choice and that is not being a homer. The guy is moving to the NL with a big park and a good, and sometimes great when Endy subs in for Alou, defense behind him. As for him not completing games, who cares? If you could see the look on my face, you would see the look of a person who does not care. The guy has simply no reason to push himself and has logged more innings than any human since 2004. If all the chips are down, I have no doubt he will push it.

2. Chris Young.

He has led the major leagues in fewest hits allowed per nine innings each of the last two years, which is pretty amazing. But when it comes to pitching into the late innings, he makes Johan Santana look like Robin Roberts. Young had made 99 starts in his still young career and he has completed exactly 0.0 of those games. Not one complete game. He currently ranks fifth on that all-time list, most starts without a complete game (behind Tony Armas, Casey Fossum, Shawn Chacon and Claudio Vargas) and I would say he is by the most accomplished starter to never complete a game.

Fewest hits per nine? Nice. Despite the facts, I am not agreeing with his place among the top ten. Also, other factors apply which you will see down the line.

3. Scott Kazmir.

One complete game in young Kaz’s career. You know, I realized that the complete game is way, way down and everything, but I guess until I started looking at young pitchers, I had never really put it in proper perspective.

Pitcher of the 1950s:
Warren Spahn (215 complete games) or Robin Roberts (237 CGs).
Pitcher of the 1960s: Juan Marichal (196 CGs) or Bob Gibson (165 CGs)
Pitcher of the 1970s: Jim Palmer (175 CGs) or Tom Seaver (147 CGs)
Pitcher of the 1980s: Jack Morris (133 CGs) or Fernando Valenzuela (102 CGs)
Pitcher of the 1990s: Greg Maddux (75 CGs) or Roger Clemens (57 CGs)
Pitcher of the 2000s: Randy Johnson (30 CGs), Pedro (18 CGs), Johan Santana (6 CGs) or Clemens (3 CGs).

We’re there — we’re at that ground floor in baseball now where the complete game is so outdated that it’s possible that the best pitcher in the 2010s might not complete a single game. Or maybe, who knows, some manager and GM will figure that the best way they could score runs would be to go to the old Earl Weaver and Casey Stengel method of platooning, and that will mean the need to have more hitters, thus fewer pitcher, and that would lead to more complete games. I doubt it — as Bill James will tell you the complete game has been dwindling pretty consistently since the beginning of the 20th Century.

It seems unlikely now for that trend to ever get reversed. Anyway, Kazmir’s stuff is so overpowering, he will — assuming he stays healthy — have more than one shot at a no-hitter, I think. I have him below the other two only because it seems to me that an American League guy — especially on an American League team with 19 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays — will have a tougher time throwing the no-no. Of course, that might be wrong. All three no-hitters in 2007 were by American Leaguers (though Justin Verlander threw his against Milwaukee).

I kept that entire blurb because it speaks to the craziness of the game today and how gently pitchers are treated these days. That being said, Kazmir can do it. When that slider is on and his fastball is humming, he is so fun to watch.

4. Carlos Zambrano.

I’m surprised he’s not on Bill’s list, though I’m certain there’s a sound reason for it. Zambrano seems to me one of the rare guys in today’s game who — even though he has never actually thrown a no-hitter — is a legitimate threat any time he pitches*. He’s thrown a couple of eight-inning one hitters, two complete game two hitters, if he was pitching in San Diego or LA or somewhere like that I would bet on him being the No. 1 choice to get the next no-hitter.

My issue with the Big Z. is his walks. However, the man can throw 150 pitches so I would not think the walks prohibit him. Didn't Burnett walk like six during a no hitter? I would suspect his would go something like that.

5. Jake Peavy.

Another guy who doesn’t complete games. He deservedly ran away with the NL Cy Young Award last year even though he did not throw a shutout nor complete even one game. Last guy to win the NL Cy Young without a single complete game? Roger Clemens in 2004. But Peavy was a lot better than Clemens in 2004 — he became the 30th pitcher since 1900 to win the League Triple Crown — most wins, most strikeouts, best ERA. He was the first to do it without a complete game* — (only Johan Santana in 2006 has done it without throwing a shutout). *Another sign of the times.

Here is a sampling of those Triple Crown winners: Lefty Gomez, 1934: 26-5, 2.33 ERA, 25 CGs, 6 SHOs. Bob Feller, 1940: 27-11, 2.61 ERA, 31 CGs, 4 SHOs. Sandy Koufax, 1965: 26-8, 2.04 ERA, 27 CGs, 8 SHOs. Steve Carlton, 1972: 27-10, 1.97 ERA, 30 CGs, 8 SHOs. Dwight Gooden, 1985: 24-4, 1.53 ERA, 16 CGs, 8 SHOs. Roger Clemens, 1997: 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 9 CGs, 3 SHOs, x HGHs Pedro Martinez, 1999: 23-4, 2.07 ERA, 5 CGs, 1 SHO. Randy Johnson, 2002: 24-5, 2.32 ERA, 8 CGs, 4 SHOs. Jake Peavy, 2007: 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 0 CGs, 0 SHOs.

The caveat for him is the outfield defense. I would say more things have to go right for him than others on the list. One or two spectacular plays need to be made and with Kouzmanoff at third and the aging outfielders with Headly/Hairston in left, you would be hard pressed to convince me he can throw one without striking out twenty. That would especially be true at home with such an expansive outfield when those guys simply cannot go after balls and vacuum everything up.

6. Erik Bedard.

My favorite Erik Bedard story so far was hearing Brian Bannister talk about facing him in spring training. Banny — what a guy. He takes a lot of pride in his hitting, and he said he was facing Bedard and the guy was throwing serious gas. Banny says that what makes Bedard’s gas so much more effective than most is that he hides the ball really well so that when you’re swinging, it’s ON YOU before you even know what happened. Anyway, Banny’s telling the story and he says (I’m paraphrasing), “So Bedard throws me a pitch, and I’m right on it. I mean I’m right on it. And I hit a hard line drive — I’m right on it, this is the best I can do — and it goes foul over the first -base dugout. And then I’m like, ‘Uh, OK, I don’t think I’m hitting this guy.”

Awesome story. Awesome pick. That is especially true if he moves to SafeCo, but Ichiro might have to call off Ibanez a few times though.

7. Tim Lincecum.

He just seems sort of a modern day Jose Deleon — I think he’ll have no-hitters going into the sixth and seventh inning for as long as he can stay healthy.

Great arm and a great pick. I just hope it does not happen against the Mets.

8. Matt Cain.

I guess a 22-year old stud who consistently allows fewer than 8 hits per nine innings and has been good for one complete game each year he’s been in the big leagues should be on this list.

Man, the Giants sure can develop pitching. Now about those bats...

9. John Maine.

I don’t know why … I just think this is the guy who is going to break that Mets curse. He’s thrown a shutout each of the last two years, he keeps hits way down, he strikes out people. Here’s the second preseason call of 2008 — John Maine throws a no-hitter for the Mets.*

*Brilliant reader Jeff P. already points out the contradiction that if I think Maine will throw the first Mets no-hitter, he should be ranked ahead of Santana. It’s true. However, it’s a mind-heart thing. My mind says that Santana is the most likely guy in baseball to throw a no-hitter in 2008. But my heart says he’s another Mets great who won’t throw a no-hitter for the team (while young and up-and-comer John Maine will). The rankings are more based on mind. The opinions are more based on heart. I know this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, but there you go. It’s like Eddie told Tom Berenger. Words and music, man. Words and music.

How can you not agree with this one? We have seen him almost do it about two times already and simply dominates some games. When he is on and getting people to chase those high heaters, he motors through the lineup.

10. Cole Hamels.

I’m a huge no-hit fan of Fausto Carmona, King Felix, Jered Weaver, but for whatever reason I can already see the headline: “Cole Hamels Throws No-No.”

How can you not agree with this one? He looks people make stupid every night with that change-up. Overall, a great list.

However, I would like to inject some more homerism and remove his #2 off the list and slide in Oliver Perez somewhere between seventh and tenth. If you put Kazmir on there, Oliver needs to be as well. Their stuff is comparable when they are on and both sliders could arguably be the best from any lefties in the game so I am with Bill James on this one. The guy may walk ten one night, but he can rebound with nine k's and no walks the next time out. Believe the hype.

* * *

Jim Caple has a nice article on the Twins fantasy camp he attended.

It looks like Schilling is going to go down the non-surgical path. Of course this is what Pedro had ailing him and he too initially opted for the non-surgical path at first. That might get him through the 2nd half of '08, but he will need to go under the knife after that.

However, his doctor thinks he may never pitch again without surgery. Even if he could come out and pitch in 2008, would sitting out 2009 after surgery mean retirement is in his future after 2008? It would be hard to envision him sitting out 2009 and rehabbing all the way back in 2010. The only way I see Schilling returning to pitch again is if get surgery now and eyes the 2009 season.

Everything you wanted to know about Erik Bedard and more. He seems like a down to Earth guy and seems like he would do well Seattle given their lack of New York/Boston-like media coverage.

A little Colbert action. Not enough? How about some more Colbert action.

Stupid, stupid, stupid animals.

Boo hoo. The Braves are getting no respect. ESPN did a hot stove match-up in which they debated who was the better team in the NL East between two teams and neither was Atlanta. Of course, the Braves are the 2nd best team in the division. I mean, yes, the Phillies won the division, but they are have holes and many of them.

The Rockies may have finished second and made it to the World Series, but who is speaking of them in the same regard as the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Padres? Not many. You will forgive me if I think the NL East is in fact a two team race that does not include the Phillies. One thing I do have an issue with is this:

RIGHT FIELD — Also not close, but in the Braves' favor. Jeff Francoeur is far preferable to the Mets' Chavez/Church duo and the Phillies' Geoff Jenkins/So Taguchi/Jason Werth combination

Frenchy facts: In 2006, he had a .260/.293/.449 line. Yikes. His 2007 line was .293/.338/.444. The bad news is even though he improved in the plate discipline department, he was still pretty bad and simply covered it up better with a higher BA. It is also worth noting he had a BABIP of .337 in '05, .284 in '06, and .337 in '07. The MLB average is usually between .290 and .300. Of course the big time players end up sustaining a much higher BABIP, but we have no idea if that does include Frenchy. He had exactly the same about of XBHs in '07 and in '06, but ten fewer balls found their way over the way in '07. His OPS+ was 87 in '06 and 103 in '07. Overall he notched 22 Win Shares, after nabbing 16 in '06.

I guess the real question is, who is Frenchy? Is he Atlanta's David Wright as many over zealous fan dubbed him? Or is he another toolsy player that has trouble putting it all together?

Church facts: Churchy compiled 19 Win Shares in 18 less games in '07. In '06, he tallied 6 less Win Shares in 71 games compared to 162 for Frenchy. Over the last three seasons, he beat Frenchy's career best OBP and posted an OPS+ of 118, 131, and 114. He also posted a higher WARP1 in '07 for good measure. The big thing here is one guy will be 24 next year while the other would be 29, but why no love for Church? If I were making a team for the long term, I could not deny Frenchy's upside, but for 2008 and maybe even 2009, give me some Ryan Church. I am shocked people really think this guy is an afterthought.

Let this one marinate in your head for a second. It is great! The entire family is crooked.

"Roger came to me one day and told me that we had been asked to do a photo shoot for Sports Illustrated," Debbie Clemens recalls. "I had major anxiety! I was a 39-year-old mother of 4! Once I realized that this WAS going to be a reality, I decided I had to give it everything I had." "My mind was set," Debbie Clemens continued. "I am not a risk taker, but have since learned that with great risk, sometimes comes great reward. The responses from that experience have been wonderful and I feel it was a turning point in my life. It's nice to have a goal for yourself and to see it through. The goal kept me motivated and focused. Using common sense and my ability to balance my life, I achieved that goal."

Big risk. Taking some clothes off and smiling in spread that everyone forgot until now? I totally admire you for that. There was also a tasty one in the comments:

If it's true, maybe Kim Mattingly should've taken some as well, then she's still be hot.

Ziiiiing!! Now, that is not nice. True, but not nice.

Take a look at this link as well. The pictures are classic. Nothing like getting together with a few buddies and downing some Miller Lites and injected some steroids.

I have not seen this one before so it is new to me.

All eyes will be on Santana this spring.......wait....no...all eyes will be on Pedro this spring. Luckily there is enough media coverage both will get their fair share of attention. There is no question they are both important, but there is also no question for me about either of those two. They are both going to healthy and very good.

Steve Popper has lots of questions. He could have just asked me though. I have answers to all of them.

McNamee's lawyers sees the Feds getting involved in the Clemens case. Roger, Roger, Roger...maybe you could have come up with a half lie and say you did it once like everyone else. Now you are going to come out looking horrible if this goes awry. Or maybe he is taking the George Costanza stance on lying.

It's not a lie if you believe it.

Fernando Tatis gets an invite to Spring Training.

New York Edition: Aside from 56 at-bats for Baltimore in 2006, Fernando Tatis has not played in the majors since 2003. Nevertheless, the Mets have invited him to spring training and would love to have a righty bat to potentially serve the role Julio Franco once filled - pinch-hitter/caddy to Carlos Delgado.

The Yankees inked Robinson Cano and bought out his last years of arbitration and tacked on a few more.

He will receive $3 million this season, followed by salaries of $6 million, $9 million and $10 million. The Yankees will have a $14 million option for 2012 or can pay a $2 million buyout.

There is a $15 million option for 2013 with another $2 million buyout.

Seems like a great deal for each side. Cano will never go hungry again and the Yankees get some nice value out of stellar production.

I guess the fact that Sandy Alderson is their CEO means Bonds to the Padres would be rather unthinkable.

Spring Training this week? Swelliciousness.

Feeling Optimistic

The Johan high is still going. My endorphins are endorphing deep inside my cerebellum and Mike Pelfrey is the benefactor today. Have faith in Pelfrey. Jim Callis said that Pelfrey 'isn't anything special' the other day and I have to disagree. The dude has 260 or so pro innings and roundabouts 60 of those were in the bigs and did him little good because he was not as working on anything as much as trying to not get hit and pitching around batters. The man needed to work on non-existent off-speed/breaking stuff and has not had a chance to really do it.

I always mention that you have look at his at-bat against Lance Berkman last year and his game against the Braves. He showed promise. Take a look at his highlights from the aforementioned Braves game. You'll see nice fade on his change, a controlling fastball with late movement that looks like it explodes in the zone, and a nice slider which does not look incredibly different from his off-speed, but cuts back in the opposite direction giving it a similar look.

The guy is basically just learned off speed and breaking pitches after throwing 70%+ of fastballs all through college. It is not easy to learn pitches, but he showed improvement and does need more work. Also, he needs more confidence as attacking hitters has been his #1 problem for me. A close second would be him missing bats, but that is highly correlated with refining his pitches and attacking hitters, which both got better at the end of the year.

Statically, I do not have much to support my optimism. However, when he returned to the rotation back in September when I thought he looked much better despite disappointing results, he raised his k/9 from 4.94 pre-Sept. to 6.95 post-Sept. Add that to his career 1.78 G/FB ratio and you have a guy who is really going to be tough to hit.

Year  W L  G    IP  H  H/9   R HR BB BB/9 K's K/9 K/BB  ERA
2003 10 2 17   105 80  6.9  29  9 15  1.3  98 8.5 6.53 2.49
2004 11 2 16   115 86  6.7  28  2 24  1.9 125 9.8 5.21 2.18
2005 12 2 18 131.2 88  6.0  33  3 28  1.9 135 9.2 4.82 1.91

I am one of the few that still think he could be a front end pitcher. Back in college, Pelfrey exhibited good control for anyone, much less a power pitcher, which is why I am optimistic he can sort that problem out. Also, he is essentially the same pitcher he was out of college. He had an electric arm and the key to him has always been how his second and third pitches develop.

That has not changed and the reason people soured on him is because not enough of a stride was made, but I think he did make some strides. If he can get another plus pitch and get the other one to an average pitch, which I think he do, he can be a legit ace of a pitching staff on the big stage and his control should settle down as he gets more confident. I think we all need not rush to judgment on him and simply give him more time. It has been extremely unfair as to how little time everyone gave him to refine some difficult things.

* * *

I posted this a few Saturdays ago. However, since people do not read weekend posts, I will repost this again.

"Omar (Shea Stadium): How healthy is Pedro Martinez, and how productive will he be this year?

Will Carroll: C'mon ... use your name, people.

Pedro is doing well. I recently heard that he's starting his normal throwing program at home and feels much like he did at the end of last year. I'd expect similar results, which were far better than I actually expected."

That is always a good thing to hear.

George Vecsey inks a terrible article.

I would strongly advise giddy Mets fans to envision the Marlins and the Nationals whacking them around in the final two weeks of last season. That should neutralize the euphoria, assuming Minaya and the family Wilpon sign the Twins' star lefty to a six-year contract.

Essentially, the Mets are front-ending their pitching staff - Santana for the departed Tom Glavine. That upgrade does not necessarily make them a better - or more mature - team for all 162 games this season.

Huh? So we shouldn't be happy that our favorite team landed the best left-handed pitcher of our time? Weird. I would have thought we should be happy. I will take note of this interesting development and quell my happiness.

Even if Santana stays healthy, he is 28, and pitchers can fall apart in a heartbeat. For that matter, he did not have such a wonderful September himself. Besides, he can start only once every five games, or somewhat more than 30 starts a season. Let's say he wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.

So many interesting and thought provoking items in here. Well, he could get injured, but he is in good shape and is as good of a bet as any to stay healthy. ERA-wise he had a bad September, but for the most part, he was Johan Santana. Striking people out, holding opponents to a low BAA, and throwing hard. But hey, let's forget this guy was the best pitcher in the league since 2003 and focus on seven games.

As for this other 'regular' you speak of, it would have been league average innings at best. I would think the Cy Young-esque innings will do much more for this team and they psyche.

Little has changed since last September. Paul Lo Duca is being replaced by Brian Schneider at catcher, maybe an upgrade in defense and comportment but a downgrade in hitting, and they now have Ryan Church in right field, not necessarily a big deal.

Stunning. LoDuca's bat is a loss? That is a strange suggestion that I have not been able to verify statistically. How about this. Anyone who thinks LoDuca's bat is a loss, please send me a compelling argument because I have yet to see one. Besides, the man would be batting 8th this season. Even if I were to placate anyone and say that LoDuca is better, who cares?

Nah. Church is not a big deal. Solid defense. Sixty extra base hits. Those things happen all the time. No one needs such things on their team.

Again, this is just another crappy article trying to bring the Mets down for some bizarre reason. I wonder if the Yankees are on notice as well? Why is there no article on why the Yankee fans shouldn't be excited about Mussina and two rookies in the rotation?

To review, Klapisch said the Mets basically had no chance before the Santana trade. Now they NL East is theirs? Weird. I love Johan as much as the next person, but one person cannot make a team that was a non-factor into the favorites. Maybe a team that already had a pretty good chance into favorites, but he was quite adamant the Mets were toast previously. Is it really too much to ask for some consistency?

It never ceases to amaze me how stingy these players can seem at times. Johan was close to walking away over $5 million as if the $145 million or so guaranteed was not enough?

The Johan Santana story.

There are times GMs spin things a bit. Twins fan think Smith is trying to spin the deal from his perspective. Cashman is spinning the Yankees lack of interest from his perspective. But Omar is laying down some truth.

"Coming into the winter, we really looked for a No.1 starter and we have accomplished that objective ... and this really almost exceeds those expectations," GM Omar Minaya said on a conference call. "It doesn't get better than Johan Santana."

Johan's deal certainly will affect the CC negotiations, but there is one major caveat. CC might want to actually stay. If he does, they could probably come to a dollar figure that would appease both sides.

If he is looking for the biggest payday and something that rivals Johan's, he is probably gone. However, it would not surprise me if he hung around for another five years with a mutual option for a sixth.

The Mariners and the Orioles keep on keepin' on. This deal looks like it going to go through and what a winter. How many times have three front end guys still in their 20's been dealt? Nuts.

I am not a huge football fan, but that was a spectacular game. Really amazing stuff and the commercial of the night for me was this one.

Chicks Dig Run Protection

For me, there is nothing better than a well pitched game. The casual fan might not enjoy a pitching duel, but many true fans of the game can appreciate the beauty of a well pitched game.

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

Just to give you an indication of how tremendous that is, only 22 qualified starters in the entire big leagues posted a 3.69 ERA or better and the Mets project to have their entire starting staff average ERA there. As for team ERA for starters, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, Boston, Angels, Giants, and Toronto rounded out the top eight with a 4.11, 4.19, 4.19, 4.21, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.24 respectively.

The Mets were 11th with a 4.40 and it should be noted, Tom Glavine helped pull down that number as he was on the wrong side of 4.40. Of course there will be injuries, but Mike Pelfrey is one of the better 6th options in the league so I feel pretty comfortable saying the Mets might be odds on favorites to lead the league in starter ERA with a full year of Pedro and Johan in the fold.

The scary part is the Mets were already sixth in the bigs for starter k/9. Tampa was first with 7.71, Boston was second with 7.01, Baltimore was third with 6.95, the Cubs were fourth with 6.92, the Angels were fifth with 6.87, and the Mets were sixth with 6.85. Minus Tom Glavine's 4.00 k/9 and add in Johan and Pedro's innings at an aggregate of 9.00 k/9 or more and you have something that makes a grown man giggle.

Also, the Pedro and Johan-less Met starters last year were second in the league in BAA with .256 second to only the Cubs .248. It is safe to say that will improve quite significantly as Johan's three year BAA is .217 and Pedro's is .216, which will obviously be up post surgery, but I do expect him to be pretty damn good.

This is why I think it is comical when people say "I'm not all too worried about Perez and Maine" or "I do not think their pitching is all that good". They were really pretty decent last year and are markedly better this year. Green is not a flattering color, but it seems to be a popular one these days when it comes to anything relating to the Mets. One thing is for sure, it is hard to get Met fans down these days.

* * *

Not only is Dayn Perry emotional, sensitive, shy, introverted, and angsty, but he is also sensible.

The upshot is that the Mets now boast the best starting pitcher in the division in Santana, the best position player in the division in David Wright (who should've been NL MVP last season), the best closer in the division in Billy Wagner, and the best GM in the division in Omar Minaya (Pat Gillick is deliriously overrated, and John Schuerholz is now the Braves president).

That's a fine start on a division title. Contingencies certainly remain. For instance, the Mets need Carlos Delgado to rebound to a degree (likely), they need Moises Alou to stay generally healthy (uncertain), and they need Ryan Church to provide an upgrade over Shawn Green in right (very likely).

Getting Santana without having to give up Fernando Martinez, Aaron Heilman or Mike Pelfrey makes the Mets that much more potent in the NL East, and a front-runner for the NL pennant

I consider myself pretty confident and I do not think I'm dumb. I also try and not be a homer, but I have to admit, I doubted myself at times in defending the Mets prospects in the Santana deal. I started to wonder if I was completely off base. Ultimately, I stood by my guns and it is nice to see at least one expert validate the fact that I am not crazy.

John, NY: Keith, In your listing for Fernando Martinez, you made this statement: "It's been fashionable this off-season for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown." I'm assuming this was before the Santana trade - but are you saying you like the Mets system? Who's left now?

Keith Law: (2:40 PM ET ) I was talking about how many writers said the Mets' "inferior" prospects would preclude them landing Santana, even to this day. Gomez and Guerra are not zeroes. I hate to be in a position to defend the Twins' end of the deal, but really, the criticism is way overboard. They didn't deal Santana for a bag of balls; they just didn't get what they probably should have gotten.

Muchas gracis Senor Law.

Also from the above link:

Ed (Charlotte, NC): Keith really enjoy your work. Was wondering why E. Kunz was left out of the Mets top 5 prospects?

Keith Law: (1:26 PM ET ) Sidearming reliever, could just be a specialist, bad athlete. He was a consideration at #5, since their system is rather depleted; Carp probably wasn't the best choice for that slot.

I guess I feel a little better that Carp should not have been the fifth best prospect, but it is still rather ugly down there.

Chad (New Hope, MN): I keep hearing Carlos Gomez has "raw" talent. So what is his ceiling? Potential all-star or is he just an average everyday player?

Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) Ceiling is a potential All-Star, leadoff guy with explosive speed, plays well above-average defense in CF.

Wilson (DC): Gomez ceiling = Juan Pierre. OH BOY.

Keith Law: (1:47 PM ET ) No, I said Gomez would be good.

And he did rank his 36th overall in terms of prospects so that is pretty good.

Alan (St. Petersburg): Is there anyone in your top 100 who you think could make a big leap this year, maybe someone you downgraded for now out of caution?

Keith Law: (2:23 PM ET ) Chorye Spoone. Josh Smoker. Tyler Robertson. Deolis Guerra. Chris Nelson. Fautino de los Santos. Moustakas. And anyone I downgraded due to injury - Garcia, Brackman, Lincoln.

I actually thought he was a bit pessimistic in regards to Guerra, but it is good to see him acknowledge that he is a breakout candidate.

Justin NJ: hey, you biased Fishmonger! The Mets ain't been in da newz at all lately. Gimme some Brant Rustich lovin'!

Keith Law: (2:29 PM ET ) Live arm, lot of minor injuries, not sure about him in pressure situations.

The arm is there, but his college numbers versus what people say about him is what confuses me the most. If he has three above average pitches, why did he struggle so much at UCLA?

Dan (Hell): How about a projection for the 2009 Top 10?

Keith Law: (2:43 PM ET ) Kershaw, Snider, Fernando Martinez, Jennings, McCutchen, Wieters, Wade Davis, Price, Vitters, Triunfel. Candidates to jump to #1 overall would include Martinez, Davis, Price, Wieters, Triunfel, Porcello, maybe Austin Jackson.

Of course, this is the real joy of the chat. Fernando, Fernando, Fernando...

10 Fernando Martinez OF New York Mets TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Binghamton) age: 19

It's been fashionable this off-season for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.

Sweet baby jebus. That is good stuff and exactly why Law was a lone soldier saying he would not trade Fernando straight up for Johan and his one year. If you are sure he is going to be star, much like Longoria is going to be, they are much more valuable than an ace. First off, there is so much risk in regards to arms and everyday players that are stars will generally add more wins than ace pitcher year in and year out.

Of course Johan is the best of the best so he pretty much beats most position players every year, but when you factor in Fernando's cost for that type of projection, it really makes him hard to move for anyone that does not come with many years of below market cream of the crop production and that is why the Reds would not move Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard either. Of course the Mariners are giving Jones away for Bedard if it goes through, but there are plenty of people to argue that this is not exactly the best deal for the Mariners who are incorrectly calculating they are one 'ace' type pitcher away from contending.

A little more 'I told you so'.

Even if that's true -- and Cabrera is no world-beater yet (even those who don't love Gomez say he's "a tick above'' Cabrera in terms of value) -- it's still hard to knock Smith for ignoring Hank Steinbrenner's quick deadline and pressing for more.

Precisely. Even the people that did not love Gomez agree he is more valuable than Cabrera. The people that love Gomez must have it as a landslide towards Gomez over the known (and mediocre) quantity Melky.

Wallace Matthews is a creepy douchebag who is a failure at being funny or objective. You get the feeling he thought he was writing a brilliant column when it is really just steaming pile of shit.

DG had another theory.

"Fucking idiot, isn’t he? You know he’s full of himself enough to think his possibly drunken rants actually influence anything!"

I had not considered any inebriation involved with his writing, but that would explain a lot.

By way of DG, I present to you cheeseburger in a can. Mmmmm... cozy yourself up on the couch for the Super Bowl with one of those bad boys and some bacon vodka and you have yourself a par-tay. Who needs friends?

More truth. Make sure you read the last two paragraphs.

Goldstein is not as high on Fernando as Law. I'm sure a healthy year of the true Fernando will change his mind, but for now, he likes Austin Jackson and Tabata marginally better.

Viola is way off.

"You're talking four guys with a big question mark by all of their names," Viola said. "Carlos Gomez, he has to be comparable to a Kirby Puckett and a Torii Hunter? Good luck with that."

Really? Gomez is going to have to be comparable to those guys? Gomez will have to and not....oh I don't know...Delmon Young perhaps? Gomez is under pressure to perform because of the trade, but not because he is going to be the centerpiece of this team. Maybe he will be, but there are plenty of other guys on the team to be 'Kirby' or 'Torri'.

Jon Heyman rounds up some voices from the other side of the trade.

The deal will get done, but it bothers me Santana is trying to get this year at market price with a signing bonus. As if $130 million+ was not enough over the next six years? So the Mets really will not get one year of Santana under market price and had to send $4.5 million or so in signing bonuses to the Twins as well. Anyone still confused why Santana was not worth as much as most of the media would like you to believe should be crystal clear now on his value.

More arms on the way?

Once the Santana deal is completed, the Mets may add more starting pitchers. They have not ruled out the possibility of signing the free-agent right-hander Kyle Lohse, who went 9-12 in 32 starts for Cincinnati and Philadelphia last season.

That move could push Orlando Hernandez to the bullpen, bolstering an aspect of the team that crumbled toward the end of last season.

Hernandez’s versatility would make him a valuable long reliever or, because of his success against right-handed hitters (they batted .167 off him last season), a late-inning specialist who could defuse a pressure-packed situation.

I'm torn on this one and I have not given it much. I did want The Duque in the bullpen, but I wanted someone else in the rotation.

My favorite article of the day goes to Joel Sherman.

JOHAN Santana has never thrown a no-hitter. Neither has any New York Met. Yet, I believe the moons are aligned for that to change.

Amen brother.

1. He is great. Actually, I don't think it has truly sunk in yet with even giddy Mets fans just how great. His 9121/3 innings over the past four years are 251/3 more than anyone in the majors. Yet even if you shrink the criteria to 500 innings, no pitcher has allowed fewer hits per nine innings than Santana's 6.95. And that is working in the AL.

The hardcore fans know, but there are plenty of people, like my father, who would have no idea who he is. So yes, legions of Met fans have no idea what they just got.

"He works quick, gets it and throws. He is athletic, so forget bunting on him. He is competitive, and then some days his slider, which is good, is great. On those days, you have no shot. He is unhittable."

Damaged Goods/Viva Johan!!!

"The Twins are going to know him better than anybody," an evaluator in the AL said Tuesday night. "It's not that they think he's hurt, but maybe they're seeing signs (of decline) in him, and figure it's better to make the move now."

A clear option would've been for the Twins to hang onto Santana and try to win in '08. "But there was a reason why they made the decision to move him now," said the evaluator. "They're smart people over there. It makes you think … "

Santana injured? That deserves one of these. Regardless, let us take a look at Santana and his incredibly soon-to-be exploding arm.

There are various tools we can use to try and predict a pitcher's future performance.

1) DiPS is pretty good and may it correlate more with next year's ERA than the true ERA.
2) GB/FB ratio is also useful.
3) K/9, K/BB ratio, and HR/9 rate are pretty widely accepted as well.

First, his DiPS ERA was 3.65 in 2007. That compares favorably with many other top pitchers and is not far off his regular ERA. Also, we know he had a bad year so it was understandable that his DiPS ERA was up from 3.05 the previous year. Of course this is still a negative trend, but nothing out of the ordinary in my eyes and no other peripheral stat jumped out in correlation with the jump in ERA. Besides, it was still pretty damn good and if he had a DiPS ERA of 4.50, I might have one tiny bead of sweat as it would have suggested he performed far worse than his numbers would have seemed to indicated.

Second, his GB/FB ratio over the last six seasons was .70, .58, .93, .91, 1.06, and .92. Basically, he has been right were he has been since 2004. Yes, more balls went over the fence, but this basically tells me not much changed in 2007 it was more freakish than anything.

Lastly, his K/9 was 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, and 9.66 since 2002. His K/BB was 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, and 4.52 since 2002. His HR/9 has been .58, .97, .95, .85. .92, and 1.35 since 2002.

The only thing that jumps out at us is the HR/9 in 2007, but we knew it would be high. His career average is .99 and he eclipsed that by 36%. However, his K/9 and his and K/BB were above his career average.

Now we'll just take a quick peak at 2007 a bit closer. In the first half he had a 7.07 H/9, 9.30 K/9, 2.23 K/BB, 1.26 HR/9, and a 0.215 BAA. In the second half he had a 8.07 H/9 (Beckett had a 8.48 H/9 all year and Sabathia had a 8.89 H/9 all year), 10.10 K/9, 2.02 K/BB, 1.47 HR/9, and a .236 BAA.

In September when he had that last string of horrific starts, he had a 7.84 H/9, 10.16 K/9, 3.19 K/BB, 1.16 HR/9, and a .229 BAA. So while he did tail off at the end, his peripheral numbers should give everyone some confidence that his 'stuff' was still good.

If there is anything out of all of the above to suggest decline or worrisome problem over homer happy anomaly, I am all ears. The guy was still ridiculously valuable last year and his peripherals really were rather consistent throughout the year and his 2007 was pretty much in line with 2004, 2005, and 2006, which did net him two Cy Young Awards. If you could show me a huge jump in GB/FB ratio in tandem with the high homer rate, I would say you had something resembling an argument. However, it just seems ten extra balls found their way over the wall, but luckily, I think Johan is good enough to adjust. Also, It never hurts to get some good old fashioned scouting in conjunction with numbers.

“He threw the ball over the plate and didn’t make pitches,” the evaluator said. “They were out of the race; maybe he was just trying to throw it over. He didn’t walk many guys and he got beat with some early-count fastballs. If they’d been in the race at all, maybe he’d have been a little more selective. But he was healthy. He was still throwing hard, still pitching deep into games.”

Instead of some crazy injury theories, let me for a second cook up some crazy scheme. Some players do not like getting traded mid-year. Carlos Delgado is a prime example and conveniently plays on the New York Metropolitans. Before he left for free agency, the Blue Jays wanted to trade him to a contender. You know what? He declined and exercised his no trade clause.

The Twins were in the know alright. They knew that Johan said trade me now or watch me walk for two draft picks and you can forget about signing me no matter how much you throw at me. The Twins leverage here was at an all time low with only one serious team involved and Johan's desire to leave ASAP. Have we all forgotten this?

These were Johan Santana's words Tuesday after the non-waiver trade deadline passed without another trade: "I'm not surprised. That's exactly how they are. That's why we're never going to go beyond where we've gone."

The Twins acquired two minor league prospects for Castillo, saved $2 million in payroll and did nothing to bolster this year's chances.

"It's not just about hope," Santana said. "In a realistic world, you have to really make it happen and go for it.

"You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it," Santana said.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner wasn't smiling.

"Why waste time when you're talking about something that's always going to be like that? It's never going to be beyond this point. It doesn't make any sense for me to be here, you know?"

Torii Hunter will be a free agent at season's end. Santana and Joe Nathan will be free agents after 2008. Asked what message Ryan's latest decisions had sent to that trio, Santana continued firing.

"I've been here for eight years, and I've seen a lot of those kind of things," he said. "I've seen a lot of those guys [like Castillo] come in and leave. [The decision makers] don't care. They always talk about caring about it; I don't think they care.

"Because if you're always talking about having young players — that's the philosophy the team has, and I respect all that — but it's been proven that it's not enough to go all the way to the World Series."

Explosive. My response to those who think the Twins knew about some injury or that Johan is in decline? Wrong. This is simply a guy who seemingly wanted to be on the Mets and in the National League and the everything worked out in his favor.

* * *

Keith Law is the only the guy who I really think did a good job covering this trade.

In the abstract, it's hard to accept dealing your marquee player and top trading asset without getting your partner's top young player in return, and that's what the Twins did. They did get back significant economic value in four young players, each of whom has under one year of big-league service and two of whom aren't even on the Mets' 40-man roster yet, so the Twins will have each of them under control for six full years of service. That return in exchange for just one year of Santana's services is reasonable. But premium players should fetch premium prices, because there's value to a club in having so much production coming from a single roster spot. And in this case, Minnesota GM Bill Smith did not get a premium prospect in return.

Of course you would like to get premium players back who are ready to be stars now like Hughes or Jones, but maybe they should have dealt him before the 2007 season. They did not and were in this position. This is a topsy turvy time we live in where youth is gaining value. Of course we can argue whether or not youth is gaining too much value, but they are indeed gaining value.

If people give up youth, they want youth and value back. Not one year and immense risk. If the Twins wanted the Mets to give up Fernando too, then the Mets would have needed another few years under market value to mitigate their risk.

Actually, I lied above. Joe Posnanski had probably the best piece of all on the trade. It really gives you some valuable insight and basically, no one is right or wrong. There are valid reasons to be on either side of the fence or straddling it.

Some Yankee fan called into WFAN yesterday and said Johan is not even the best pitcher in the league. Josh Beckett is. Right, even if I conceded to that madness, then he is the second best. What is the point?

I heart Time Marchman and his stoic looking picture.

As if that piece was not enough, he drops this one on us.

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

It is nice to have someone NOT try and pee on our picnic.

The glow won't fade for weeks.

I still think the Indians could retain CC as long as they do not add a no trade clause, but who knows. It is a lot of cash and Fausto may persuade them to roll the dice and try their luck without him.

Fun Santana facts of the day.

• In 2007, he struck out 62 lefties while allowing 39 hits. In fact, he struck out more righties than he allowed hits as well in his off year.
  
• The majority of big leaguers are righties. Over the last three years, Santana has held righties to a .213/.251/.358 line. Don't worry, I soiled my underwear as well.
  
• Johan Santana is not Barry Zito.
  
• Johan was selected by the Florida Marlins from Houston in the 1999 Rule 5 draft and then traded to the Minnesota Twins for minor leaguer Jared Camp. Camp never threw a pitch in the big leagues....Ooooops.

CC is down for extra drug testing.

There may be other teams jumping into the mix for Bedard.

The Mets picked up Ruddy Lugo, who is incidentally Benny's best friend. Shit, meet wall. Wall, meet shit. Hopefully something sticks.

Inflammatory? Perhaps. But nice to read. Also, a A+++ comment surfaced here.

Strawdoc Jan 30, 2008 8:20:07 PM Report Offensive Post
It is so funny -- the Daily News runs this whimsical story, complete with provocative headline, to stir up yanks fans. And sure enough, the usual nitwits like libertytwerp are pounding their keyboards in indignant frustration (compounded, in libertytoy's case, by his apparently unsuccessful effort earlier today to find a 13-year-old girl). What upsets them is that with this deal, the Mets are clearly the best in the city (remember, we can't look at the yanks' PEDs-tainted stats. to assess their roster). Not to mention best in the National League.

Interesting.

Pelfrey never a factor: It turns out there was no chance that Mike Pelfrey would be included in the package for Santana. The Twins were interested in Pelfrey as a pitcher, but not as an expense. The agreement that Pelfrey's agent, Scott Boras, negotiated with the Mets when they selected Pelfrey in the first round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft established the pitcher's salaries for four seasons.

Pelfrey is to earn at least $1 million this year, whether he's in the big leagues or not. And the Twins, always cost-conscious, don't want to pay anyone that kind of salary for Minor League work.

I cannot say I am unhappy about that at all.

When Mike Carp is in your top five, it is safe to assume you have the worst system in the big leagues.

New York Mets

1. Fernando Martinez, cf
2. Brant Rustich, rhp
3. Nathan Vineyard, lhp
4. Jon Niese, lhp
5. Mike Carp, 1b

As for the Twins, they do not look so bad.

Minnesota

1. Carlos Gomez, cf
2. Deolis Guerra, rhp
3. Tyler Robertson, lhp
4. Wilson Ramos, c
5. Philip Humber, rhp

Of course I think Mulvey is better than Humber, but it seems they did well if they added their #1 and #2 prospects in the deal. Sickels on the other hand is not as high on Gomez.

1. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+
2. Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade B+
3. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B
4. Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade B
5. Ben Revere, OF, Grade B
6. Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B
7. Glen Perkins, LHP, Grade B-
8. Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B-

Jim Callis is also very low on Carlos Gomez citing that Carlos Beltran is his ceiling, but he does not see that happening. The fact is, Gomez is just one of those guys who you love or hate. He has all the talent in the world, but obviously the odds are stacked against him.

However, he did make strides in the minors increasing his walk rate and slugging over the years. In '07, he for the most part lost a year of development time. Instead of playing everyday at AAA, he was in the bigs way before he should have been and then broke his hand. I think the kid will develop into something very good, but he still needs development time and last year was not a good year for him in many facets.

I still find it amusing how people feel the need to rain on the Met parade. However, when you try and say that Schneider is a downgrade from LoDuca you lose me. Construct a meaningful argument and I might listen. But baseless claims get you no where.

If this was 1902 and we were looking solely at batting average, maybe Schneider is a downgrade. But this is 2007 and Schneider is at worst a sideways move offensively with a pretty good chance to be an upgrade. Compound that with LoDuca's injury and this one is a no brainer.

.....and finally, I leave you with this.

"Santana's so good, though, he'll do so much for them," the GM said. "There's not much chance of buyer's regret."