Feeling Optimistic

The Johan high is still going. My endorphins are endorphing deep inside my cerebellum and Mike Pelfrey is the benefactor today. Have faith in Pelfrey. Jim Callis said that Pelfrey 'isn't anything special' the other day and I have to disagree. The dude has 260 or so pro innings and roundabouts 60 of those were in the bigs and did him little good because he was not as working on anything as much as trying to not get hit and pitching around batters. The man needed to work on non-existent off-speed/breaking stuff and has not had a chance to really do it.

I always mention that you have look at his at-bat against Lance Berkman last year and his game against the Braves. He showed promise. Take a look at his highlights from the aforementioned Braves game. You'll see nice fade on his change, a controlling fastball with late movement that looks like it explodes in the zone, and a nice slider which does not look incredibly different from his off-speed, but cuts back in the opposite direction giving it a similar look.

The guy is basically just learned off speed and breaking pitches after throwing 70%+ of fastballs all through college. It is not easy to learn pitches, but he showed improvement and does need more work. Also, he needs more confidence as attacking hitters has been his #1 problem for me. A close second would be him missing bats, but that is highly correlated with refining his pitches and attacking hitters, which both got better at the end of the year.

Statically, I do not have much to support my optimism. However, when he returned to the rotation back in September when I thought he looked much better despite disappointing results, he raised his k/9 from 4.94 pre-Sept. to 6.95 post-Sept. Add that to his career 1.78 G/FB ratio and you have a guy who is really going to be tough to hit.

Year  W L  G    IP  H  H/9   R HR BB BB/9 K's K/9 K/BB  ERA
2003 10 2 17   105 80  6.9  29  9 15  1.3  98 8.5 6.53 2.49
2004 11 2 16   115 86  6.7  28  2 24  1.9 125 9.8 5.21 2.18
2005 12 2 18 131.2 88  6.0  33  3 28  1.9 135 9.2 4.82 1.91

I am one of the few that still think he could be a front end pitcher. Back in college, Pelfrey exhibited good control for anyone, much less a power pitcher, which is why I am optimistic he can sort that problem out. Also, he is essentially the same pitcher he was out of college. He had an electric arm and the key to him has always been how his second and third pitches develop.

That has not changed and the reason people soured on him is because not enough of a stride was made, but I think he did make some strides. If he can get another plus pitch and get the other one to an average pitch, which I think he do, he can be a legit ace of a pitching staff on the big stage and his control should settle down as he gets more confident. I think we all need not rush to judgment on him and simply give him more time. It has been extremely unfair as to how little time everyone gave him to refine some difficult things.

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I posted this a few Saturdays ago. However, since people do not read weekend posts, I will repost this again.

"Omar (Shea Stadium): How healthy is Pedro Martinez, and how productive will he be this year?

Will Carroll: C'mon ... use your name, people.

Pedro is doing well. I recently heard that he's starting his normal throwing program at home and feels much like he did at the end of last year. I'd expect similar results, which were far better than I actually expected."

That is always a good thing to hear.

George Vecsey inks a terrible article.

I would strongly advise giddy Mets fans to envision the Marlins and the Nationals whacking them around in the final two weeks of last season. That should neutralize the euphoria, assuming Minaya and the family Wilpon sign the Twins' star lefty to a six-year contract.

Essentially, the Mets are front-ending their pitching staff - Santana for the departed Tom Glavine. That upgrade does not necessarily make them a better - or more mature - team for all 162 games this season.

Huh? So we shouldn't be happy that our favorite team landed the best left-handed pitcher of our time? Weird. I would have thought we should be happy. I will take note of this interesting development and quell my happiness.

Even if Santana stays healthy, he is 28, and pitchers can fall apart in a heartbeat. For that matter, he did not have such a wonderful September himself. Besides, he can start only once every five games, or somewhat more than 30 starts a season. Let's say he wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.

So many interesting and thought provoking items in here. Well, he could get injured, but he is in good shape and is as good of a bet as any to stay healthy. ERA-wise he had a bad September, but for the most part, he was Johan Santana. Striking people out, holding opponents to a low BAA, and throwing hard. But hey, let's forget this guy was the best pitcher in the league since 2003 and focus on seven games.

As for this other 'regular' you speak of, it would have been league average innings at best. I would think the Cy Young-esque innings will do much more for this team and they psyche.

Little has changed since last September. Paul Lo Duca is being replaced by Brian Schneider at catcher, maybe an upgrade in defense and comportment but a downgrade in hitting, and they now have Ryan Church in right field, not necessarily a big deal.

Stunning. LoDuca's bat is a loss? That is a strange suggestion that I have not been able to verify statistically. How about this. Anyone who thinks LoDuca's bat is a loss, please send me a compelling argument because I have yet to see one. Besides, the man would be batting 8th this season. Even if I were to placate anyone and say that LoDuca is better, who cares?

Nah. Church is not a big deal. Solid defense. Sixty extra base hits. Those things happen all the time. No one needs such things on their team.

Again, this is just another crappy article trying to bring the Mets down for some bizarre reason. I wonder if the Yankees are on notice as well? Why is there no article on why the Yankee fans shouldn't be excited about Mussina and two rookies in the rotation?

To review, Klapisch said the Mets basically had no chance before the Santana trade. Now they NL East is theirs? Weird. I love Johan as much as the next person, but one person cannot make a team that was a non-factor into the favorites. Maybe a team that already had a pretty good chance into favorites, but he was quite adamant the Mets were toast previously. Is it really too much to ask for some consistency?

It never ceases to amaze me how stingy these players can seem at times. Johan was close to walking away over $5 million as if the $145 million or so guaranteed was not enough?

The Johan Santana story.

There are times GMs spin things a bit. Twins fan think Smith is trying to spin the deal from his perspective. Cashman is spinning the Yankees lack of interest from his perspective. But Omar is laying down some truth.

"Coming into the winter, we really looked for a No.1 starter and we have accomplished that objective ... and this really almost exceeds those expectations," GM Omar Minaya said on a conference call. "It doesn't get better than Johan Santana."

Johan's deal certainly will affect the CC negotiations, but there is one major caveat. CC might want to actually stay. If he does, they could probably come to a dollar figure that would appease both sides.

If he is looking for the biggest payday and something that rivals Johan's, he is probably gone. However, it would not surprise me if he hung around for another five years with a mutual option for a sixth.

The Mariners and the Orioles keep on keepin' on. This deal looks like it going to go through and what a winter. How many times have three front end guys still in their 20's been dealt? Nuts.

I am not a huge football fan, but that was a spectacular game. Really amazing stuff and the commercial of the night for me was this one.