Sugary Goodness
Why do I still call David Wright 'Sugar Pants'? Mostly because it annoys people. However, it is still an apt nickname for the best third baseman in the universe over the next ten years. The kid can flat out play some baseball and I just do not think I talk about him enough. Luckily, Rob Neyer has us all covered.
With all that (and some other stuff) in mind, our tentative list:
1. Wright
2. Cabrera
3. Rodriguez
4. Zimmerman
5. Beltre
6. Ramirez
7. Reynolds
8. Atkins
9. Andy LaRoche
10. ????
That's right. Neyer would take Wright over every other third sacker in the league over the next five years. I am sure he would pick him over the next ten years over everyone in the bigs and in the minor league hopper. The Sugary One has posted an OPS+ of 118, 139, 133, and 150 since breaking into the bigs with an astounding 81% of his bases stolen succesfully. If you look at his crude Hall of Fame monitors, they look pretty good.
Gray Ink: Batting - 41 (582) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 29.0 (288) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 40.5 (445) (Likely HOFer > 100)
That is with only three full years of ball and one half of a season with his best seasons clearly ahead of him. Wright has slugged over .500 in every season so far and batted over .300 in the last three years. Yeah, he is good. In case you needed more info on that one, only Alex Rodriguez and Matt Holliday topped him (by .4 in each case) in WARP1 last season and it was not even a career year for him when you factor in projection. Was anything he did that unreplicatable in 2008 and beyond?
His BABAIP has remained pretty consistent over the last three seasons as did his GB% and LD%. Basically, there is nothing to suggest anomally and I really do not think anyone could find anything to suggest such poppycock. The dude is also turning into the model of offensive consistency. Over the last three years, he has hit .282/.387/.475, .306/.377/.535, .314/.391/.574, .298/.364/.486, .328/.411/.556, and .324/.390/549 in April/March, May, June, July, August, and Sept/Oct. respectively. The man shows up from day #1 and can be depended on every day.
What is not to like? I'm sure Yankee fans will tell us plenty of things, but information never stood in their way when it comes to formulating opinions.
Now, Gomez posted a .281/.349/.423 line with more extra base hits in every category despite having thirty less at-bats. He also had 30% less walks, 30% more strikeouts, and he also stole bases at a much higher SB% in virtually the same exact amount of games while being a year younger at AA. I am not at all implying that Carlos Gomez will turn into that mystery player above who blossumed inexplicably the next season into one of the best players in the bigs after skipping AAA altogether.
However, it simply cannot be ignored when you are talking about these toolsy type players. Is anyone really all that curious why teams are still enamored with a kid that has largely not put up numbers to support his supposid skill set? If you watch him, you know what is possibly there and he has taken encouraging steps forward. I will be the first to admit it might be disaster starting 2008 off with Gomez in right if Church is dealt, but if they do, he needs to be in there everyday and take his lumps, which is not something Willie will feel compelled to let happen. With another manager on a non-contending team that might work, but not with the Mets. All in all, I would still not be upset to see the Mets pick up Livan or Lohse and keep their prospects. I still like Humber, Mulvey, and Pelfrey and Fernando and Gomez have a shot to be special.
For that, you may have first born.
"HGH [human growth hormone] is nothing. Anyone who calls it a steroid is grossly misinformed," Stallone says in the issue out tomorrow. "Testosterone to me is so important for a sense of well-being when you get older. Everyone over 40 years old would be wise to investigate it because it increases the quality of your life. Mark my words. In 10 years, it will be over the counter."
Also, anyone down on this deal is nuts. Hopefully it is for one season, but he essentially replaces Glavine's innings and is roughly as valuable as the 2007 version. With Livan replacing Glavine's production and Pedro adding his, this is a big step forward for the Mets.
posted by michael o. at 12:44 PM
24 Comments:
Well because ESPN is just so swell at letting us read blogs, I would think Longoria deserves to be in that 3rd base list.
Again I dont know if Neyer mentioned him. I'd be willing to place him 7 or 8 within 5 years.
- Nokes
2:09 PM
Longoria is sill an unknown at the big league level...lets see what he can do on the big stage first.
Metsra--NO idea whose statline you are comparing to Gomez...Vlady?
2:16 PM
Longoria should be on the list. 100%. I would actually choose him over just about everyone except Wright, Cabrera, A-Rod, and Zimmerman. He's a star in the making.
Hanley. They are similar in many ways and in the fact they are both CFers. SS is not Hanley's position but Gomez reminds me of him a lot. I think Gomez can be that good and the more I think about it the more I'm sure he will be pretty damn good.
2:26 PM
I'd play Longoria at short and Ivanovic at second...
Oh, we're talking about BASE ball.
Emad
2:35 PM
I hope the Livan thing is true and happens. Two possible scenarios...
They still trade for Johan. Then you have Johan, Pedro, Maine, Perez, Livan (with whomever is left from trade lurking - pelf?). Take Duque to pen. That would be a BADASS badass rotation with a serious pen.
Or...Pedro, Maine, Perez, Livan, Pelf and Duque still moves to pen. AND we keep all our young guys. That seems very appealing as well.
In total agreement with you Mike, this is a nice deal no matter which way it goes down. Livan can pitch 200 innings of decent ball in the bigs. That is a good thing to have on your team (as long as he's a number 4 or 5). Fuck Glavine. Will be cool to have Livan on the team. Him and Duque will thrive on it. Jacket will help make Livan a tad better as will Shea.
David Wright, most likely will be the greatest Met of all time. Thank you god for bringing us Sugarpants. We as Mets fans deserve it.
2:47 PM
I knew Blalock was going to be out for a while but I had NO idea it was a rib removal surgery, eww.
Chickipedia? Its kinda of creepy to have this much information on people but.. fuck it.
Best part was the "similar chicks" link. I was able to found out a sleeper pick for hotness, Lisa Hernandez some LA news anchor has the same body type as Angelina Jolie.
She'd make a nice consolation prize and she's a year younger!
I must have spent 10 minutes on it. And it seems like every girl I was looking up, hooked up with Derek Jeter. He's a first ballot hall of famer...
I believe Stallone. It probably isn't harmful if your okay with looking like an ogre.
When it comes to Gomez yeah your right, you see little flashes of brilliance, he could turn into a Carl Crawford, but me, I just don't see it. I think he ends up being more like Juan Pierre the way he is now, not the badassed Juan Pierre from like 2003...
Comparing Gomez to Hanley, I can see it happen. Hanley and Gomez have very similar body types. And hanley wasn't very impressive in the minors, just hype. But at the end of the day, I just don't trust Carlos. We'll see. THere are positives for getting Johan and for keeping the prospects.
Livan is not bad as long as Oliver Perez and Maine get better and they will...
Also, according to an MLB article, the Marlins are close to a new stadium, HURRAY! Thier plan to suck soo much ass and whine, bitch, and complain about imaginary money losing worked!
2:57 PM
hahaha, I'm glad you liked the bacon vodka, my pleasure to pass something along bacony related. No child required!!! ;)
I guess I'm nuts cuz I think Livan is garbage. But I'll defer to you guys and be complacent until proven otherwise.
K rate dropping thru the floor.
BB rate rising thru the stratosophere.
Same for HR rates (fine you wanna say hitters park for this one, fine but its still mad ugly)
His FIP last year was almost 6. 6. HR's count a lot here, so that pitchers park note would factor in.
I'll defer to y'all on this one, but I dont see many positives of having 200 innings if they're 200 innings of craptastic ball. 200 innings of 5+ ERA is not a positive to me, when those innings could have been Pelfrey or Humber's at the same result and some experience for our young'ns.
and its going to be a multi-year ML contract, come on, we know this.
we also know this is gonna be another one of Willie's vets and if/when he sucks, willie wont take him outta the rotation. he'll continue to leave him to suck and rack up the L's.
Similar to Brian Lawrence last year, those games only cost us the playoffs (as did a lot of games)
Oh well, good thing I'm deferring to y'all, lol.
Prove me wrong :)
3:10 PM
Thanks a lot Dep, you just totally bummed me out when I was trying to feel good about something with our team for a change this offseason! All the stuff you put up there seems to burst the Livan bubble a bit. But I still think it won't be that bad. I think he could put up Glavine type prod/numbers overall. I definitely do not think you can compare him to Brian Lawrence though. That is over the top. Livan is a WAY better pitcher right now than Lawrence.
Not saying he's a stud or even that good. But I do think he will be a more than serviceable 4 or 5. I do like the idea of having someone who has proven they can throw up 200 innings and give our bullpen a break (which it will surely need). Right now we do not have one guy on the staff that can definitely put up 200. This will help. We get Johan on top of that, forget about it.
3:32 PM
Good stuff Emad...good stuff.
Anthony, that is tasty rotation. Either way it could end up good and I guess this has little to do with Johan. Or not little, just not as much as I an reading into it.
Duque should go to the bullpen anyway. I'm sticking to my guns.
Benny, the similar chicks feature is sheer brilliance. BRILLIANT!!
RE: Gomez...I have no leg to stand on here. His stats just are not good, but it is fun to debate. I can see him develop some big time pop. 25 homers or so....I have read about the shows he puts on in BP. The power is there, he just needs to get better in terms of his approach.
I am a believer!
Dep, you don't want my first born, huh. Not good enough for you?
Livan may not be exciting, but he is not garbage. He's league average which has value, no?
200 innings with 4.75 ERA gives you a 4th or 5th starter that saves the pen AND gives you a chance to win games. He's basically Tom Glavine!
Yes, we know it will be multi-year. Two years to be exact at eight per.
3:32 PM
I do agree with Anthony. You bummed me out a bit as well, but I have to remember what he is being asked to do. Save the pen and provide 4.50 to 4.75 ERA. Scary to think that is league average these days.
3:34 PM
Yikes....he had a 5.19 away from the BOB. Ummm...and had a BAA over .300 everywhere.
Still, I remain optistic with no evidence to support my case outside of ERA+ and IP!
3:37 PM
hahahaha, hey I'm sorry to burst the bubble a little...
maybe this isnt even true....Colorado is the only place reporting...that makes NO sense lol
Listen, I'll buy into it a little bit until we're proven to see otherwise. Maybe Shea stadium, being with El Duque and the jacket and having a very solid defense behind him will help. I believe that could definitely happen. I'll roll with y'all on this one.
And like y'all said, we just need some innings and a sub 5 ERA. if he can do that, we ok then. ::crosses fingers::
We'll worry about it some more when the time comes and its the real deal.
Re: your first born child
ok, so you get to do all the fun stuff like make the baby...and then I get to raise it, feed it, put a house over its head and put it thru college and all that not fun stuff???? I'm sure your children will be wonderful additions to society Mikey but No thanks! LOL :)
4:04 PM
I don't like mocking you, Mike. It takes away my joie de vivre. Just temper your expectations to barely average fifth starter (~75 ERA+).
Emad
4:05 PM
dep, once again, you are right.
Who is a 75 ERA+?
Livan was 102, 91, 80, 125, and 95 the last five years. Let's be fair here!
He is a league average starter (at least in '08 I think he will be) and fitting him in the 4th or 5th spot would be just fine.
You think he'll regress that much?
4:20 PM
You think he'll regress that much?
Yep. Just like his K/BB the past five seasons.
And a FIP near 6 last year.
Um, also, aesthetically, I can't stand pitchers who nibble, walk the ballpark, give up tons of homers and have WHIPs touching 1.6.
That's Trachselesque, homes.
Emad
4:30 PM
The Mets' number 5 starter won only 5 games this past season.
5!
Livan is an upgrade...
4:43 PM
I think you were being facetious, but by those standards, so is Byung-Hyun Kim.
If Livan signs for 2-18MM, I wouldn't protest too much. Its just that he very well may suck as soon as 2007.
Emad
4:55 PM
Was his WHIP soooo out of line with his previous seasons? He was still decent.
Benny, you bring up a good point. You can slot Pedro in for Glavine and assume he will perform better and compare Livan to the 5th slot solely.
Either way, it is hard to say it is not an upgrade.
Two wins there, one win there, .5 wins there, one win there....Omar is slowly and uninspiringly (is that a word?) upgrading this team. Shrewd or doing a bad job? You decide. I've side with the shrewd argument.
This team was a game away from being a playoff team and did not get worse. They got, however marginally you want say, better.
They won't run away with it, but I would be happy if Livan capped the most boring off-season ever.
Smith is off his rocker at this point and over valuing Santana. If he wanted to get what he is asking back, he should have dealt him before the 2007 season.
5:01 PM
do the Mourneau/Cuddyer deals mean that something is done with Johan?
they did say a few weeks ago they wouldnt move on those 2 until johan was sorted out. maybe they decided to hold him, maybe a deal is reached and we're just waiting to hear about it. Maybe Johan retired....maybe....you get the drift.
or maybe someone just reported that they'd only move on contract extensions after johan and its not even true, i dont even remember anymore.
oh well, time to get drunk. have a good friday night y'all.
5:11 PM
'Was his WHIP soooo out of line with his previous seasons? He was still decent.'
He WAS. And I hope it stays that way, but i'd rather have Lohse, even at a $$$ contract.
'You can slot Pedro in for Glavine and assume he will perform better and compare Livan to the 5th slot solely.'
Assuming everyone stays healthy, which they won't.
I'm a real Debbie Downer today.
Emad
5:13 PM
dep, I am starting to think NO deal is happening. Smith wanted to trade him if he could get someone to overpay. No one will so he is taking his chances with a team that is on the playoff bubble as currently assembled.
I'm sure we will hear plenty of rumors over the next few weeks, but I think Livan's rumored impending signing does signal something.
Emad, I do enjoy your cynicism. We need dissenting voices and you certainly provide it. How else could we have discussions otherwise? I also agree on Lohse since he actually has some upside there. I'd roll the dice with him and Dr. Rick, but who knows what him and Boras are still holding out for.
I do not see a rush for Omar to close the Livan deal if he can still reel in Lohse for the same cash. But of course, we have no idea what is actually going on. We are left to speculate and that is never a good thing.
5:17 PM
Hey I actually kinda like B.K. Kim but as a ROOGY! His splits against righties are significant but teams like to use him as a setup man or starter. Meh, none of those tickle my fancy. I view him as a Chad Bradford, I really want him to get that chance, I believe in him succeeding in that role.
Livan's WHIP was pretty shitty but he's consistantly had a bad whip. his career average is 1.42 and his career year was 1.20 was the abberation. He's just one of those guys who get out of trouble. C'mon you have ot remember when he was on Montreal/Washington. The Mets get a ton of hits off of him, he walks a ton of guys and his line ups up looking like this: 7 innings pitched with 10 hits, 5 walks, 4 strikeouts, with only 3 runs scoring. That's him, that's just the way he is. And the Mets defense is going to be better than that arizona and washington one.
And dep, getting drunk sounds like a GREAT idea.
5:27 PM
Livan will MAKE me drunk!! NOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooo-Let the youngsters pitch!!!
Luis Venitucci
Adenzeno@yahoo.com
6:54 PM
Dayn Perry's Top Ten Breakout Candidates:
9. Lastings Milledge, RF, Nationals
The trade that sent Milledge to the Nationals from the Mets in exchange for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider figures to be a steal for Washington. Milledge has exceptional skills at the plate, and he's a smooth defender in the outfield. Milledge's attitude problems were grossly overblown by the New York media, so the change of scenery may serve him well. Milledge put up solid numbers last year in limited duty with the Mets, and let's not forget that in 2005 he hit .337 in the Eastern League as a 20-year-old. Also, the Nats' new park figures to be much more hitter-friendly than RFK. Milledge should come up big in '08.
And don't pee in your pants!:
http://www.glumbert.com/media/chrisrocksnl
7:33 PM
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