The real Mr. Met

I have to travel for work so I have no time to write anything meaningful. So.....I'll just post the best thing I've read in quite a while since not everyone has access to ESPN Insider. Oh, buy a membership to ESPN Insider.

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From Ben Shpigel's piece about David Wright in yesterday's Times:

At age 25 and preparing to enter his fourth full season in the major leagues, Wright is in a unique position. Already admired by his peers for his professionalism and accountability, Wright, for the first time in his brief career, will be expected to assume part of a leadership void created when Lo Duca and Tom Glavine were not re-signed.

-- snip --

"I've tried to emulate Glavine's professionalism and the way he carries himself. John Franco's leadership, the way he could get everyone on the same page. The one thing that all these guys had in common was that they had the ability to bring together people from different backgrounds and languages."

Is this guy for real?

True Story: Last year I thought Wright was the best player in the National League. His numbers were brilliant, and from Sept. 2 through the end of the season he batted .365 with devastating power. I spend most of my time 3,000 miles away from the National League East battles, but from here he looked like the MVP. So that's what I wrote. He finished fourth.

Right around Thanksgiving the phone rang. We had visitors so I let the machine pick up. It was David Wright, or at least it was someone identifying himself as David Wright. He said he'd read what I'd written and just wanted to say thanks. Later I checked an ill-used e-mail account and discovered that the Mets' PR director had asked for my phone number. So it really was David Wright.

Obvious Question: So is David Wright really, in addition to being probably the best player in the National League, also an incredibly thoughtful guy? Or is he merely a fantastic player who thinks his life might go a little better over the next 25 years if the writers are on his side?

Simple Answer: Both. Or rather, all three. David Wright really is the best player in the National League. He really is smart enough to know that one quick phone call to a writer might lead to something good down the road. And that really is the mark of someone who's both thoughtful and emotionally mature, and perhaps worthy of our admiration as not only a hard-working professional athlete, but also a person.

Next fall, if I think Wright wasn't the best player in the National League in 2008, I will write passionately about who was the best. But if Wright is the best player, again? I'll write with exactly the same passion … and a bit of pleasure tacked on.

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I'll say it again. The Mets will have the Cy Young Award winner and the MVP.

Sugary Goodness

Why do I still call David Wright 'Sugar Pants'? Mostly because it annoys people. However, it is still an apt nickname for the best third baseman in the universe over the next ten years. The kid can flat out play some baseball and I just do not think I talk about him enough. Luckily, Rob Neyer has us all covered.

With all that (and some other stuff) in mind, our tentative list:

1. Wright
2. Cabrera
3. Rodriguez
4. Zimmerman
5. Beltre
6. Ramirez
7. Reynolds
8. Atkins
9. Andy LaRoche
10. ????

That's right. Neyer would take Wright over every other third sacker in the league over the next five years. I am sure he would pick him over the next ten years over everyone in the bigs and in the minor league hopper. The Sugary One has posted an OPS+ of 118, 139, 133, and 150 since breaking into the bigs with an astounding 81% of his bases stolen succesfully. If you look at his crude Hall of Fame monitors, they look pretty good.

Gray Ink: Batting - 41 (582) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 29.0 (288) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 40.5 (445) (Likely HOFer > 100)

That is with only three full years of ball and one half of a season with his best seasons clearly ahead of him. Wright has slugged over .500 in every season so far and batted over .300 in the last three years. Yeah, he is good. In case you needed more info on that one, only Alex Rodriguez and Matt Holliday topped him (by .4 in each case) in WARP1 last season and it was not even a career year for him when you factor in projection. Was anything he did that unreplicatable in 2008 and beyond?

His BABAIP has remained pretty consistent over the last three seasons as did his GB% and LD%. Basically, there is nothing to suggest anomally and I really do not think anyone could find anything to suggest such poppycock. The dude is also turning into the model of offensive consistency. Over the last three years, he has hit .282/.387/.475, .306/.377/.535, .314/.391/.574, .298/.364/.486, .328/.411/.556, and .324/.390/549 in April/March, May, June, July, August, and Sept/Oct. respectively. The man shows up from day #1 and can be depended on every day.

What is not to like? I'm sure Yankee fans will tell us plenty of things, but information never stood in their way when it comes to formulating opinions.

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I know I am late to the party on this one, but rib-removal surgery?

Nice.

.271/.335/.385 = ugly. Six homers, twenty-two doubles, and caught stealing 33% of the time. The thirty-nine walks to sixty-two strikeouts were nice, but statistically nothing to really get your panties all wet up about. However, scouts were pretty univerally aligned when it came to agreeing the kid was oozing talent. All of this occured for the player when he was 21 years old in 122 games in AA. Who was it? Stop being lazy and figure it out for yourself.

Now, Gomez posted a .281/.349/.423 line with more extra base hits in every category despite having thirty less at-bats. He also had 30% less walks, 30% more strikeouts, and he also stole bases at a much higher SB% in virtually the same exact amount of games while being a year younger at AA. I am not at all implying that Carlos Gomez will turn into that mystery player above who blossumed inexplicably the next season into one of the best players in the bigs after skipping AAA altogether.

However, it simply cannot be ignored when you are talking about these toolsy type players. Is anyone really all that curious why teams are still enamored with a kid that has largely not put up numbers to support his supposid skill set? If you watch him, you know what is possibly there and he has taken encouraging steps forward. I will be the first to admit it might be disaster starting 2008 off with Gomez in right if Church is dealt, but if they do, he needs to be in there everyday and take his lumps, which is not something Willie will feel compelled to let happen. With another manager on a non-contending team that might work, but not with the Mets. All in all, I would still not be upset to see the Mets pick up Livan or Lohse and keep their prospects. I still like Humber, Mulvey, and Pelfrey and Fernando and Gomez have a shot to be special.

Sometimes I partake in some vodka on the rocks when I go to whatever watering hole is lucky to have me. Exclusively from me enjoying those vodka on the rocks, I like to partake in some bacon. Now, Dep has given me the recipe for everlasting happiness and has combined two of my favorite things.

For that, you may have first born.

From Ossy....

"HGH [human growth hormone] is nothing. Anyone who calls it a steroid is grossly misinformed," Stallone says in the issue out tomorrow. "Testosterone to me is so important for a sense of well-being when you get older. Everyone over 40 years old would be wise to investigate it because it increases the quality of your life. Mark my words. In 10 years, it will be over the counter."

It seems that Livan and the Mets are close to a deal. I would assume landing him means Johan is out, but I guess I should not be assume anything. The other weird part is who broke the story. How and why the fuck is it coming out of Colorado?

Also, anyone down on this deal is nuts. Hopefully it is for one season, but he essentially replaces Glavine's innings and is roughly as valuable as the 2007 version. With Livan replacing Glavine's production and Pedro adding his, this is a big step forward for the Mets.

Just Say No to A-Rod

The Angels are joining the Mets in chasing A-Rod? I had no idea the Mets were even chasing A-Rod. I do not care what is out there, the Mets are not chasing A-Rod.

Scott Boras is scheduled to meet with the Mets this week concerning you-know-who, and Tuesday the new GM of the Angels certainly made it known his team will be in the A-Rod sweepstakes.

But other than the Giants and Dodgers, who have previously expressed their intention to explore the A-Rod situation, only the Mets and Angels seem interested in Alex Rodriguez and his hefty price tag.

I know many people think that any play for A-Rod would be a good one, but I seriously do not agree and it seems to be a square peg in a round hole situation no matter how it shakes out. Too much money over too many years when the Mets already have a great third baseman as is. Of course, a good GM is always open to anything.

It would not be shocking if they made a similar pitch in this spot to see if they could get Rodriguez at a price that would make a significant roster shuffle - likely Wright to a new position - worthwhile. But it is probably even more likely that they simply will not make an offer and concentrate their full attention on finding pitching in this difficult market.

The article does mention that the Mets are most likely just humoring Boras and trying to keep a good working relationship rather than being genuinely interested, which makes sense. However, one has to wonder if Wright would be more likely to hang around after his contract expires if he stays at third versus being moved to first. Would he rather go play third base for someone else if the Mets move him?

I do not think this is a black and white situation and it is not just as easy as move Wright and Delgado, who they will most certainly have to eat $6 million to $10 million when you factor in the buyout. It is easier to find offense at first than any where else and though A-Rod makes this team a better offensive team in 2008 and beyond, his signing could have bigger implications than just money. No matter what Wright says about being a good soldier to accommodate A-Rod, one has to wonder what he would ultimately do and I think this is more delicate than people realize.

* * *

Tom Glavine looks like he might be heading back to Atlanta and that is just fine by me.

"I think it would be nice for our fans if Tommy finished as a Brave," Wren said. "At the same time, we're looking for a quality pitcher, and we feel Tommy is still that."

He did some nice things here and I will not deny that, but it is 100% time to move on for the Mets. Besides, the insistence by Willie to use him as their #1 scares me when I think about the Mets in the playoffs and this is truly a case of addition by subtraction in many ways.

The Yankees are possibly looking to acquire Miguel Cabrera.

A canvas of executives indicated the Yanks would have to trade Melky Cabrera and one of their high-end starters, perhaps Ian Kennedy, but more probably Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain in a package. And there are no signs the Yanks are willing to part with their best young pitchers, even to replace A-Rod.

Melky and Ian? First, the is a bizarre report that the Yankees would balk at that. At least that is what they are saying now. Second, that would be truly a ridiculous trade and if the Marlins do not get Phil or Joba back, that trade would be a horrific one for the ages.

I think Kennedy is a solid pitching prospect, but not in the same tier as the other two and you will excuse me if I do not think Melky is good enough to be a centerpiece of a deal of that magnitude. I am not nearly as high on him as many Yankee fans are and just think he is going to be a mediocre regular player down the line. Other teams would have to give up the likes Kershaw, Kemp, Wood, etc. and the Yankees would give up Melky and Horne? Ridiculous. People are crazy and Yankee fans are crazy for thinking this deal is even discussed without Hughes or Joba.

It seems I have been proven 100% wrong.

“It is about the two draft picks," Cashman said. “By offering arbitration, we get the first-round pick of the team that signs him and a sandwich pick."

It really seems that LoDuca's days as a Met are over.

It looks like instant replay is backed by the vast majority of big league GMs.

With the Mets and Yankees among those in favor, baseball's general managers formally recommended that the sport adopt instant replay.

After several years of discussion, the GMs voted on the issue for the first time yesterday, and replay was approved 25-5. It would be used only for "boundary calls" such as whether a ball is fair, clears a wall or is touched by a fan.

"It just makes sense to me to use everything available to get it right," Yankees GM Brian Cashman said.

Marlon gets two years and $2.2 million. He truly seems to flourish here and he is certainly welcome back.

I would not mind Silva, but I do have my limits.

The Mets have interest in free-agent pitcher Carlos Silva and planned to meet here with Silva's agents, Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro. Yet they are wary of the large price that Silva (perhaps five years and $50 million) could command on the open market.

Of course, that is way to much and Silva is getting a lot of attention making it likely that he does receive that amount. This is one of the worst markets in recent years which is saying a lot because they have been rather paltry the last few years. Silva may cash in big time and he might become a bit expensive for rational GMs.

Wow. There is a video as well and this has to be one of the stranger things that I have seen.

Carlos Gomez for Matt Garza? Sign me up. I know Gomez has some immense upside, but Garza has front end potential and is under control for another four years. The Mets would be dealing from an obvious position of strength and this would truly be a tremendous move for Omar if he can get this done.

You cannot make this stuff up.

Millions of Chinese-made toys have been pulled from shelves in North America and Australia after scientists found they contain a chemical that converts into a powerful date rape drug when ingested. Two children in the United States and three in Australia were hospitalized after swallowing the beads.

The Astros continue to venture down a very perplexing road.

The Phillies made a great deal to get Brad Lidge form the Astros, which allows them to move Brett Myers back into the rotation after he did a decent job as a makeshift closer. The Astros received Michael Bourn, a talented outfielder, as the main piece in return, and he has a chance to be pretty good. No great surprise that new Astros GM Ed Wade dealt with his former team.

Why maximize the value of your players?

This team is so far away from winning, they might as well blow things up. Oswalt would be in his mid-30's by the time they might become competitive and it will be extremely difficult to become competitive without trading him. He may be an icon down there, but anything that is not tied down should be dealt with only Pence as an untouchable.

Especially with a horrific free agent class, they can look to really cash in with three guys who would be in the in the top ten of available free agents with ease.

As for the other side, Nate Silver likes the deal for the Astros. However, the caveat I would add to this is that Lidge is not necessarily for one year as the Phillies could easily afford to extend him. Even so, I would still take my chances with a sandwich pick and a first rounder instead of those two beacons of mediocrity.

Cordero for Gomez or Pelfrey? If I did not like Cordero for Humber, I certainly do not like that deal as I still maintain Humber or Pelfrey would be solid arms out of the bullpen for much cheaper and much longer with some upside in the rotation. For me, this is no brainer to not do and the Nationals could just sit and stew in their horribleness.

It looks like the Mets do have some interest in a Japanese import.

A pitcher the Mets have their eye on is Japanese righty Hiroki Kuroda. The 32-year-old is a free agent, though it's uncertain whether he'll head to the United States or what his timetable is.

Eleven of this year's free agents have been nabbed for steroids. Good times!

Odd Man Out / Wright = Most Valuable Met

Endy is returning and the problem is there is just no where to put him. Shawn Green would seem like the odd man out adding absolutely no value anymore being he does not actually bring offense or defense into the picture and no longer has any value at first base with Jeff Conine in the fold, but it is hard to envision the Mets cutting ties with Green with over a month left of baseball.

It would seem that Lastings Milledge would take a trip to New Orleans for a week since he has options with Endy and Green playing right field until he returns. It might be a bit premature to cut Green entirely as there is still a whole lotta time to have someone go down with an injury and it certainly does not make sense to blow up any depth at this point when you do not need to.

I certainly do not want to see Milledge head down to AAA, but he can help them make a 1st place push. With the Mets firmly in control of the division, they can certainly afford to replace a guy at the bottom of the order with Endy for a week and not really lose much. We'll see how it plays out, but I assume Milledge gets sat down and gets the skinny as to what is happening and really makes the most sense.

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I have not had the pleasure of watching Prince Fielder, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, etc. on an every day basis, but I have no idea how anyone could have been more valuable to a team than David Wright has been to the Mets. Sure they have their share of superstars, but Beltran has been hurt and missing for the entire season outside of April and August, Delgado has been a black hole, Alou has been hurt, the Mets second base situation was largely unsettled, Green has been useless, and Jose has been great, but not quite as consistent.

Especially of late, there have been many games Wright has simply carried the team and lead them to victory as he did on Saturday behind a great Oliver Perez pitching performance. Also, Wright has been playing sharp defense and deftly stealing basis like Carlos Beltran used to. He has a .316/.411/.530 line and is on pace for 29 homers and 35 steals and has been lights out after a homerless and disappointing April.

He is 9th in batting average, 4th in runs, 6th in steals, 9th in OPS, 10th in RBIs, 8th in walks, and 6th in OBP with a sick .411 mark. Ryan Howard won his MVP Award with stellar play down the stretch and Wright has been unconscious with a .373/.489/.585 line after the break, though without the gaudy homers totals that Howard put up. In August, he is hitting over .400 with a sick 1.191 OPS.

When it has counted most, Wright has been there the most for this Met team. Fielding wise he might be towards the bottom of the pack statistically, but he is far from a butcher and makes his share of highlight reel plays. Whether or not he gets the MVP award, the third baseman and the #3 hitter for the New York Mets should finish in the top five and has absolutely been the MVP of this Met team by far.

* * *

Jose is on track for 89 steals this season, but you get the feeling he is going for 100. With 32 more games this season and six more in August, he has already surpassed his monthly high in '07 and for his entire career for that matter. He is swiping multiple bags a game and just running at will and has had three games of two steals and one three steal game since August 15th. It is safe to say he has a green light.

As pointed in a chat on Friday, the Mariners have nine guys with fifty or more RBIs. That is extremely impressive if for no other reason than showing some consistency.

ESPN had a nice chat with Matt Murhpy, who is the Met fan who caught Bonds' 756th homer, and David Kohler, who is the President and CEO for the company who is selling the ball.

With Torii Hunter Set to hit free agency for the first time, he has to be pretty excited. The red flag is a career year at 32 to boost his value, but he should still be pretty damn valuable to whatever team picks him up, though not likely to be worth the mammoth contract he will receive.

Jerk offs...

Dontrelle Willis has had a difficult season in Florida, and there's a growing feeling that this could be the winter he is traded. The 25-year-old lefty won't be a free agent until after 2009. The Marlins would look for young pitching and catching in return. Florida may also trade lefty Scott Olsen, 23, this winter. He faces a drunken-driving charge and is due in court Sept. 10.

Talk about holding onto a guy too long. When you are so far away from competing, you cannot get caught up in trading your biggest draw. And especially when that big draw has had diminishing skills for a bit before he hit his mid 20's. GMs really need to start taking note of the Adam Dunn and Dontrelle Willis situations. If you are far away from winning and can get huge returns for a player, deal him.

Luis Gonzalez is Shawn Green.

Mark Prior is determined to come back in 2008.

El Dominator? Good nickname for The Duque. I cannot say it enough, but he has just been stupendous for the Mets this year and a ton of fun to watch. He looks like a circus act out there with some of those lollipop curves he throws that just befuddle big league hitters.

Wagner's arm is 'tired'. The guy has been spectacular all season and most guys hit a rough patch during the season. It just so happens Wagner's is happening now and the Mets should cut back on his work until he feels more comfortable. At this point, I do not see a big need to panic about Mr. Billy Wagner right now.

When you are 35 and not overly athletic in terms of your build, people wonder if you have just plain lost it. Delgado might not have, but he sure looks lost at the plate. Getting beat on inside fastballs that he is unable to get around on and he just flat out looks terribly out of sync. He is slugging less than Jose Reyes and almost on par with Shawn Green. Even Ruben Gotay has a higher slugging percentage, albeit in limited work.

I thought he came around a bit earlier, but all that has seemed to evaporated. For whatever reason, he has not been able to get himself on track this year.

Ollie was sharp on Friday regaining the form that he has had all season and that was certainly encouraging. The Mets sorely need Maine and Perez to regain some consistency as the Met bullpen does not look like they will be able to pick up the slack as they did in last year's playoffs.

The Mets climb up to #3 on Baseball Prospectus' Hit List. I tried to see what AE had them as on his power rankings, but he is slacking a bit.

The Mets' Fancoeur

A bit ago it seemed unthinkable for Mr. Wright to jump past Jose Reyes on the MVP charts. However, with Reyes cooling off a bit and Wright driving the offense at times of late and playing a solid hot corner, he has moved past Reyes however so slightly and may very well be the top candidate for MVP if he keeps it up.

Since April when he hit .244/.370/.311, he has hit .320 and slugged .563 while hitting 22 doubles, 19 homers, 61 RBIs, and stealing 22 bases. He is slugging close to 1.000 after the break and doing all of that in something the voters love. A push for the playoffs. Right or wrong, wins get looked at for the Cy Young Award and team wins play a role in the MVP race unless someone is so much more overwhelming, which Miguel Cabrera is pretty damn close to being.

As BP stated, he is getting more ink for his weight than his play, but just as an aside check out his comps through age 23:

1. Hank Aaron (959) *
2. Orlando Cepeda (933) *
3. Frank Robinson (925) *
4. Joe Medwick (920) *
5. Mickey Mantle (914) *
6. Ken Griffey (907)
7. Andruw Jones (907)
8. Hal Trosky (905)
9. Vladimir Guerrero (900)
10. Al Kaline (900) *

Scary how good he could be for a long time. If Wright and Cabrera both keep their current production up, it would probably be Wright that edges out Cabrera but whether he will edge out the rest of the field is another question. One thing that I'm pretty sure of is that Wright is probably going to finish in the top five at his current pace. In his rookie season, he finished in the top twenty. In his second season, he finished in the top ten. This season, he should almost certainly finish in the top five. He is a safe as bet as any to win an MVP award in the next five or so years.

* * *

The Mets are just emitting feel good vibes all around of late and that good feeling just keeps rolling with Tommy getting his 300th victory. I know I have lost some faith in his abilities this year, but as Rob Neyer pointed out, 2004 was strikingly similar and he was able to reinvent himself and turn things around. However, it is hard to not see him struggling a bit more this season than he did back in '04. Unless Atlanta offers him a sweetheart deal, I can see him retiring.

Ha!

Rick SD: Do you think there is often too much weight and kudos given to individual stat data accomplishments in what is supposed to be a team sport?

SportsNation Joe Morgan: (11:48 AM ET ) Finally somebody that understands the game. You're right. Statistics are overrated. What you do to help your team win is what it's all about. These stats like OPS, it doesn't tell you what you do for the team. To my opinion, to help the team, you drive in runs or score runs. That helps the team. That's how you should be judged.

The Yankees want the 500th homerun baseball for a signed jersey. But hey, they are also willing to give 'a lot of things at their fingertips' and they 'think Clemens would give some stuff'. That roughly leaves the gap in value approximately $99,000 to $399,000. Sounds like a good trade to me! God forbid some poor guy gets to make some bank on a lucky catch. A-Rod can get in line like everyone else and being that he makes $25,000,000 a year, I think he can afford it.

Note to Johan...maybe Terry Ryan knows how to run a team better than you do.

One was play a day game after a night game, which Casilla can do because he's young and doesn't have the chronic leg and hip problems Castillo does.

The other: Castillo was Sir Slap-a-Lot. Casilla can drive the ball some.

Big Barry Lamar Bonds tied the all-time homerun record and though many feel strongly about it, I am extremely ambivalent. I do think it is a shame that he is not getting as much due as he deserves for being one of the greatest hitters and all around baseball players in the history of the game. However, that was to be expected as he is not an endearing character and he is not free of questions. Also, that Bud Selig with his hands in his pants gag was utterly ridiculous.

Pedro makes his first start on Wednesday.

Not so encouraging words about the Mets top two pitching prospects.

Fran (Flushing): What is your take on Pelfrey/Humber as it pertains to their prospect status? Any other prospect tandem fall as far this year?

Bryan Smith: No, I don't think they have suffered some huge fall this season. Pelfrey wasn't Major League ready and his profile was reading a bit high, but he'll be OK. I think I said it in a previous chat, but his fastball command and movement is going to allow for a lot of good starts, even with fringe secondary stuff. Humber is also probably a back-end guy, but I think Rick Peterson is going to really help get the most out of him. There are pairs that have suffered more this season, I promise.

...and...

Seth (Cambridge, MA): I'm not sure he's really expected to be a leadoff man in the longterm, but how does Carlos Gomez's top-of-the-order potential rate? I know he's blocked by Reyes, but I'm curious, for s's and g's.

Bryan Smith: If I was evaluating Gomez as a leadoff guy, I would worry both about his walks and his strikeouts. The walks are the biggest problem, as he falls into the Doug Glanville Rule 5 trap from my series. His strikeouts are acceptable, but I think the Mets might be best off trading Gomez and keeping Lastings Milledge for the outfield. Gomez comps too well to the bad column.

Well, that is certainly interesting. The Mets have a glut, but unless something really good gets put on the table, what's the point? The Mets would be looking for young pitching and that just does not get traded anymore.

This will make your head spin.

Ugly game by the Mets and that is all I'm going to say about that.

I went to the Muse concert on Monday at MSG with the Cold War Kids opening up. The Cold War Kids were decent enough, but Muse was simply a grand display of awesomeness. It was quite the show and it really reinforced my belief that Matthew Bellamy is flat out one of the best musicans out there. Sheer genious was spewing from that guy throughout the entire show.