A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Odd Man Out / Wright = Most Valuable Met

Endy is returning and the problem is there is just no where to put him. Shawn Green would seem like the odd man out adding absolutely no value anymore being he does not actually bring offense or defense into the picture and no longer has any value at first base with Jeff Conine in the fold, but it is hard to envision the Mets cutting ties with Green with over a month left of baseball.

It would seem that Lastings Milledge would take a trip to New Orleans for a week since he has options with Endy and Green playing right field until he returns. It might be a bit premature to cut Green entirely as there is still a whole lotta time to have someone go down with an injury and it certainly does not make sense to blow up any depth at this point when you do not need to.

I certainly do not want to see Milledge head down to AAA, but he can help them make a 1st place push. With the Mets firmly in control of the division, they can certainly afford to replace a guy at the bottom of the order with Endy for a week and not really lose much. We'll see how it plays out, but I assume Milledge gets sat down and gets the skinny as to what is happening and really makes the most sense.

* * *

I have not had the pleasure of watching Prince Fielder, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, etc. on an every day basis, but I have no idea how anyone could have been more valuable to a team than David Wright has been to the Mets. Sure they have their share of superstars, but Beltran has been hurt and missing for the entire season outside of April and August, Delgado has been a black hole, Alou has been hurt, the Mets second base situation was largely unsettled, Green has been useless, and Jose has been great, but not quite as consistent.

Especially of late, there have been many games Wright has simply carried the team and lead them to victory as he did on Saturday behind a great Oliver Perez pitching performance. Also, Wright has been playing sharp defense and deftly stealing basis like Carlos Beltran used to. He has a .316/.411/.530 line and is on pace for 29 homers and 35 steals and has been lights out after a homerless and disappointing April.

He is 9th in batting average, 4th in runs, 6th in steals, 9th in OPS, 10th in RBIs, 8th in walks, and 6th in OBP with a sick .411 mark. Ryan Howard won his MVP Award with stellar play down the stretch and Wright has been unconscious with a .373/.489/.585 line after the break, though without the gaudy homers totals that Howard put up. In August, he is hitting over .400 with a sick 1.191 OPS.

When it has counted most, Wright has been there the most for this Met team. Fielding wise he might be towards the bottom of the pack statistically, but he is far from a butcher and makes his share of highlight reel plays. Whether or not he gets the MVP award, the third baseman and the #3 hitter for the New York Mets should finish in the top five and has absolutely been the MVP of this Met team by far.

* * *

  • Jose is on track for 89 steals this season, but you get the feeling he is going for 100. With 32 more games this season and six more in August, he has already surpassed his monthly high in '07 and for his entire career for that matter. He is swiping multiple bags a game and just running at will and has had three games of two steals and one three steal game since August 15th. It is safe to say he has a green light.

  • As pointed in a chat on Friday, the Mariners have nine guys with fifty or more RBIs. That is extremely impressive if for no other reason than showing some consistency.

  • ESPN had a nice chat with Matt Murhpy, who is the Met fan who caught Bonds' 756th homer, and David Kohler, who is the President and CEO for the company who is selling the ball.

  • With Torii Hunter Set to hit free agency for the first time, he has to be pretty excited. The red flag is a career year at 32 to boost his value, but he should still be pretty damn valuable to whatever team picks him up, though not likely to be worth the mammoth contract he will receive.

  • Jerk offs...

    Dontrelle Willis has had a difficult season in Florida, and there's a growing feeling that this could be the winter he is traded. The 25-year-old lefty won't be a free agent until after 2009. The Marlins would look for young pitching and catching in return. Florida may also trade lefty Scott Olsen, 23, this winter. He faces a drunken-driving charge and is due in court Sept. 10.

    Talk about holding onto a guy too long. When you are so far away from competing, you cannot get caught up in trading your biggest draw. And especially when that big draw has had diminishing skills for a bit before he hit his mid 20's. GMs really need to start taking note of the Adam Dunn and Dontrelle Willis situations. If you are far away from winning and can get huge returns for a player, deal him.

  • Luis Gonzalez is Shawn Green.

  • Mark Prior is determined to come back in 2008.

  • El Dominator? Good nickname for The Duque. I cannot say it enough, but he has just been stupendous for the Mets this year and a ton of fun to watch. He looks like a circus act out there with some of those lollipop curves he throws that just befuddle big league hitters.

  • Wagner's arm is 'tired'. The guy has been spectacular all season and most guys hit a rough patch during the season. It just so happens Wagner's is happening now and the Mets should cut back on his work until he feels more comfortable. At this point, I do not see a big need to panic about Mr. Billy Wagner right now.

  • When you are 35 and not overly athletic in terms of your build, people wonder if you have just plain lost it. Delgado might not have, but he sure looks lost at the plate. Getting beat on inside fastballs that he is unable to get around on and he just flat out looks terribly out of sync. He is slugging less than Jose Reyes and almost on par with Shawn Green. Even Ruben Gotay has a higher slugging percentage, albeit in limited work.

    I thought he came around a bit earlier, but all that has seemed to evaporated. For whatever reason, he has not been able to get himself on track this year.

  • Ollie was sharp on Friday regaining the form that he has had all season and that was certainly encouraging. The Mets sorely need Maine and Perez to regain some consistency as the Met bullpen does not look like they will be able to pick up the slack as they did in last year's playoffs.

  • The Mets climb up to #3 on Baseball Prospectus' Hit List. I tried to see what AE had them as on his power rankings, but he is slacking a bit.

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  • 21 Comments:

    Blogger Ceetar said...

    As Endy again hangs out on the bench without a move, I strongly suspect Brian Lawrence will be demoted after his start Monday for Endy. The next time the spot comes up inthe rotation is September first, and you could always toss it to Pelfrey, or even Pedro(Don't we wish?)

    12:23 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Ha...yes. Tossing it away on Pelfrey is always an option. Do we dare to dream Humber might actually get a shot?

    I do not see this team getting rid of any pitcher as I believe Lawrence would have to pass through waivers, not that I think he will get picked up.

    I just see them cutting down on outfield depth before pitching at this point because if someone could not make their start for whatever reason, another roster move would be needed to straighten things back out whereas the outfield move is surely one and done until the 1st.

    12:37 PM

     
    Blogger John Peterson said...

    Hey, good stuff. I agree with you about Green. I publicized my opinion in no uncertain terms here.

    Of course, the Mets will probably not include Sele or any fifth starter on their post-season roster.

    As far as Wright goes, his defense has actually been towards the top of the league according to some metrics. If you look there, you will see that David has made more "Out of Zone" plays than anyone else. A lo t more.

    Gonzalez reminds me a lot of Green, except that his patience gives him additional value.

    -Blastings

    1:23 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    The Mets won't have five, but after Pedro is back, they will certainly included whomever was their fifth starter at the end of the season on the playoff roster.

    Good stuff on Wright. I know that he has been better than the stats would seem to indicate, but according to the standard metrics, I don't have much of a leg to stand on.

    1:27 PM

     
    Blogger AE said...

    i decided that with so many power rankings out there that the SU power rankings didn't add much value. i appreciate that you actually take the time to look at them though, so maybe i might continue to do them starting next week...

    i do however think that if i were to crunch the numbers this week, the mets would be somewhere between 2-5. without crunching #'s, i think the mets are only 2nd to the red sox at this point, and i do not believe the sox are flawless.

    and i'm totally with you on wright for mvp. if he has a solid sept, there's no way he can't be in the top 5 in mvp voting. even though he had a terrible april, he has been the team's mvp for the last 4 months...although, reyes has provided amazing defense even when his bat went cold. reyes' warp1 is 8.1, wright's is 7.5. just by virtue of that, reyes should be mvp. HOWEVER, wright has a 3.14 WPA, and reyes has a 1.54...so wright has been twice as clutch with the stick, which is traditionally what the award is based on...in the end though, i think it will be wright getting more mvp votes. we'll see, you could argue for either one and you wouldn't be wrong.

    1:45 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    BP still has the Yankees @ #2 so I think they still might fall there, but I cannot see the Mets lower than four with El Tigres possibly in the #3 spot.

    Good stuff on Reyes. I still think the Reyes peaks and valleys had more of a variation since April than Wright while David has been there seemingly 100% of the way from May on in. Who cares though....both have been great and we have them both for a while. I shudder to think how much they will cost at the end of their contracts.

    2:12 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I think we are all in agreement on the outfield situation; we can't wait to see Endy again, don't want to DFA Green and jinx our finally healthy OF, and so would grudgingly live with Milledge being sent down for 10 days.

    That being said, if other teams weren't desparate for starters, the move I would be all over is DFA'ing Lawrence after Monday's start. But you know Atlanta or Phily would sign him, and again I don't want to set up that kind of bad mojo.

    Interesting stat on Baseball Tonight concerning the Mets MVP - Buster Olney saying Reyes should be it for the Mets, and that he might very well be the NL MVP. Used the gold glove defense argument, plus the fact that Wright hits 100 pts higher when Reyes is on base, and Beltran hits 75 pts higher. Very interesting, love hearing Reyes get the press he deserves. Unfortunately, I think all it's going to do is split the votes between Wright and Reyes ala 1988 and Strawberry/McReynolds.

    Finally, nice link to the Matt Murphy chat. Sell the ball, Matt, and have some fun - it's a lottery ticket. I love how someone ALWAYS says "did you think about giving it back to the player, etc." You know what, if Bonds wants it he can buy it quite easily. It'd be two weeks pay. Expecting Matt to just give it to Bonds would be just like a homeless guy finding a $10,000 scratch ticket on the sidewalk in front of my house, and expecting him to give it to me. Of course that would be ridiculous.

    3:12 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Bonds has made $200,000,000 in his career. If he wants the ball, he can go buy the ball. Any one that suggest otherwise has a loose grip on reality.

    10:54 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    The Mets should just wait until the end of the week to activate Endy Chavez. Less problems that way. Or just activate him after Brian Lawrence's start, either works fine.

    I'm gonna look for the one blog I postted about the Mariners being the surprise team so I can look smart. Maybe next week I'll look for it.

    Shawn Green may = Luis GOnzalez BUT... Green doesn't have triplets, so he doesn't have a cool story to tell for the away team announcers.

    I still have faith in Delgado but by now I'm only going by blind faith and his track record. As long as he does what he do, in October, I don't care.

    Did the Mets really go from 3 games up to 7? shit balls, that was quick. Time to get that lead into double digits by raping the Phillies who will pitch thier shitty pitchers at us. unfortunately Brian Lawrence steps on the mound for one game, we're at a dis advantage already.

    I would like to share this, I forgot how I stumbled upon it, but here it is. Good insight. Its in PDF format so you know its official shit.
    http://images.mccoveychronicles.com/images/admin/Theories.pdf

    12:40 AM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    By the way, I found Matt Durkin. He's pitching out of the bullpen for the Savannah Sand Gnats and he STILL sucks ass.

    12:49 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Benny smart? I don’t buy it.

    They could wait to activate Endy for sure, but he’s Omar’s guy and I see them activating him sooner because ‘he knows how to play the game. It would certainly make sense to wait, but he isn’t in the minors playing games so I cannot see him just sitting around.

    Awesome link…Too funny. It is so simple…right? Why o’ why can’t GMs and managers see it.

    RE: Durkin…I found him a long time ago and I can testify that he still in fact sucks and cannot locate the strikezone. Just remember…$900,000 for his services.

    9:37 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Yeah, anyone crying about not signing Efferson should remember Durkin. Not that they are the same or anything, but just that the draft is a crapshoot and when guys want way more than you think they are worth, you just need to let them go. Just like free agency too. I would have liked Zito at 4/40M, not 7/130 or whatever he got. Same thing with Efferson - would have liked him at $300k, not nearly as much at the supposed $900k he was looking for.

    Though, that being said, I do have a bit of hope for Durkin as a reliever. He's been OK (not great) coming off major surgery this year, and now they've moved him to closer - where his K's have increased and BBs decreased. Still, he's 24 and in A ball, so time is running out.

    Would like to steal game 1 against the Phils today, even if Lawrence is pitching. Put the Phils on their heels...

    -ube

    2:32 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I think Efferson has a much livelier arm than Durkin did and Durkin was coming out of college.

    That being said, Durkin's move to the pen had to happen. With the pitching depth on the team in Mulvey, Humber, Neise, Guerra, Carr, Pelfrey....Durkin being 24....it just had to happen.

    Lawrence helping the Mets win in Philly would be a miracle. 83 mph fastballs don't do well in that park.

    5:40 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    So much for miracles. There was a can of ass-whoop that got opened in Phily tonight.

    Yeah, I wasn't comparing Efferson to Durkin as pitchers, as much as just saying the you can't give these guys whatever they want - Durkin is essentially a waste of $900k. And while Efferson definitely has a livelier arm, Durkin was definitely a better bet to make it to the majors. And he might not make it past High A ball.

    For the record, Reyes needs a day off - badly. Mental lapses in the field, don't like his approach at the plate. He just looks mentally (not physically) tired. Next time Perez starts I'd put Gotay in at short and cross my fingers...

    -ube

    9:47 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Can anyone explain how starting a maximum velocity 84 mph pitcher against the Phillies this evening makes more sense than starting a Humber or Pelfrey or even Sele for goodness sakes? Lawrence wore out his welcome several starts ago. We could have just forfeited!

    10:16 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Humber, who's in line to win his 11th tonight, allowed two hits over five innings tonight with 1 walk and 4 k's. Oh and one unearned run. 4.27 ERA. Mid 90's fastball.

    Lawrence?

    10:49 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Was reading the quotes page on baseball prospectus and this caught my attention.

    "Unless you were 90 or older, there was no way you couldn't look at the X-ray and tell that the rib was broken. It was plain as day."
    --Pirates minor-leaguer Clayton Hamilton, on his medical team's gross negligence that allowed him to pitch with a broken rib. (John Perrotto, Beaver County Times)


    Damn... that is not good. Not good at all. These type of things remind me of the Mets from a couple of years ago, when everything was just a disaster. The Pirates need to be blown up or be given a new owner. That's just brutal.

    12:47 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Well, we don’t know what Efferson wanted. Pre-draft, BA was saying $1,000,000 and then Callis said less than $500,000, which he probably was worth for sure.

    Gotay has played short before and while that is scary, I agree it needs to be done. They can also wait until A Hern gets called up, but I’d still prefer Gotay’s bat and much worse defense.

    DG….there is nothing that anyone can say to justify giving him one more start. It is lunacy. They Mets got a few decent starts and they were lucky for that one.

    Humber should be up getting a look and he could have gotten some meaningful innings.

    Benny, I’m guessing you are referring to the MeJean incident….and yes…the Pirates need to be blown up. If those Mark Cuban rumors were true, he should have bought the team.

    2:49 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I've heard Callis's comment about Efferson looking for $500k, but I've heard at least 2-3 other people on BA, BP, and other sites say he was looking for around $1M. Given the fact that the Mets signed their 39th pick Alonzo Harris for $400k+, I find it hard to believe all Efferson was looking for was $500k.

    Also, keep in mind that while Efferson has some potential, as of April, he wasn't in Keith Law's Top 80 prospects.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2841787

    Even if he was #81 (and I don't think he was in Law's Top 100 a few months later, as I recall), that would be third round & around a $300k bonus. So it wasn't just that he fell because of signability, but that he essentially thought he was worth more than anyone else did. So no, I'm not heartbroken.

    Oh yeah, forgot about AH - that may very well be Reyes's day off, if he comes up Sep 1.

    Looks like we will get our wish with the next start for the #5 - Lawrence DFA'd. I think Humber is odds on to take that start, then Pelfrey, or a very slim chance of Pedro. Whatever. I'll take my chances with any of them over Lawrence.

    The Pirates are the worst organization in all of professional sports right now. They define the phrase "no clue".

    -ube

    8:39 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    COME ON..ENOUGH OF MOTA ALREADY

    -Will

    11:20 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I was definitely confused about Efferson's exclusion from that top 100.

    Mid 90's fastball and three possible plus pitches seems like a top 100 guy, right? I'm not really sure what is going on there if it was his size or I think he is better than he is.

    Pelf only threw two innings today....maybe they were getting him ready for Saturday and didn't want to spend him?

    11:35 PM

     

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