Recipe for Success

Jonah Keri was speaking about a book Baseball Between the Numbers a little bit ago in a chat. He had mentioned that Nate Silver, from Baseball Prospectus, wrote a chapter that looked at the past 25 years of playoff teams and the areas at which each team excelled. The conclusion was that teams with 1) two top starters, 2) great defense and 3) a great closer tend to be the best in the playoffs. Also according to the study, regular season offensive prowess had to post-season wins. Of course, we could have looked at the Yankees 2001 through 2006 seasons to see that but that is neither here nor there.

What is the point is that the Mets are pretty close to that recipe along with Anaheim, San Diego, and Boston. Of course the Mets have a better defense than either of those teams, but those two are no slouches. While the Padres stock is falling and their outlook for the playoffs is not all that favorable, the Mets, the Angels, and the Sox should march right in barring any disasters. Would we be shocked to see a World Series with some configuration of those teams? Not really.

While they satisfy the above criteria, they are obviously not bereft of offensive ability and could cause some trouble once they get into the playoffs. A lot of this is dependent upon the Mets two top starters pitching like top starters at that time. They have quite a few candidates that could be considered as such but a few have been inconsistent of late and one is pitching against A-ballers.

The x-factor here is the Mets offense has the ability to go from above average to American League-esque. With Alou back and adding such a consistent force in the lineup and the other shuffles, they could be dangerous on all fronts. Add that to the possibility of solid starting pitching, the top defense, a decent bullpen, and a dominant closer, this team could start firing on all cylinders and blast through the rest of the regular season and continue into the playoffs.

Of course that is easier said than done but the possibility of that happening is certainly there.

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The Mets sweep of better than people think Nationals team was just what everyone need to assauge the negative feelings from Thursday night's disaster. Now things get really interesting as the Mets head out to face the San Diego Padres with Chris Young who pitches like Pedro Martinez circa 1998 when he is at home, the Dodgers, the Philly, and then Atlanta. After that, the schedule is very favorable for the Mets so this is basically the division. If they can emerge from that part of the schedule unscathed and have a four game lead or better in hand, it's over Johnny.

Lastings for the most part will get a free pass on not taking enough walks this season. He only has three walks so far and has been plunked three times as well. He is never going to be a big walk guy, but he certainly is not 2007's version of Pudge Rodriguez.

Jake Peavy says it is not about getting a big payday, but it is about getting something fair. Which is a big payday. That is all well and fine, but the fact it is hitting the papers in 2007 when he is inked through 2009 is a bit silly. I am not sure I see the reasoning for him saying the Padres are not showing a big financial commitment to winning and that he envisions a new address for himself in the near future.

The Duque was spectacular yet again and the Mets have won 10 of his last 11 starts. He is third in the league in WHIP and 7th in ERA but only has 8 wins to show for this amazing season. He is also absolutely murdering righties to the tune of a .155 BAA and lefties are not getting much against him either and have a .235 BAA.

How he is doing this I will never know, but he has not been this good since 1998.

It is really hard to complain about Castillo and what he was brought to this team.

It certainly looks like Beltran is on one of his pattented hot streaks and was named NL Player of the Week. He went 9 for 24 with four homers and ten RBIs in six games.

"It is about feeling good," Beltran told reporters after Sunday's game. "I am seeing the ball, and I feel balanced, and I am staying back."

All this is precisely why he can be frustrating at times. He can do it all and should be able to put it all together on a consistent basis, but he doesn't.

"When he gets hot, he gets ridiculously hot," teammate David Wright said after Sunday's game. "He has the ability to put the team on his shoulders."

I do not know if it is mental, his injuries that seem to be nagging him at times, or him getting out of synch physically, but if he can figure out how to bottle up his highs and minimize the lows, he can put up some cartoonish numbers.

The Mets acquired Jeff Conine for Sean Henry and Jose Castro. I liked Henry and I thought he was having a nice follow up season to his 2006, but it's hard to get upset about a guy who was a bit old for A ball.

However, you have to believe that the Reds got a pretty decent bounty for Conine and clearly more than the Twins got for Castillo which is inexplicable.

It looks like Michael Vick is going to jail for a year to a year and a half.

Brandon Webb is a stud. In the days of six inning pitchers, three consecutive complete games shut outs is as fun as it gets. It should be noted that he went seven innings in the three starts previously before that which averages out to eight innings per start in his last six starts. Yes...I'm good at maff....But that's not my point, my point is that few people can that these days and he only topped 111 pitches once in that streak and topped 110 pitches twice.

He just pounds the strike zone with his many variations of his sinker and srip players of their manhood.

Have the Mets even had one player crack the top 20 on BA's Prospect Hot Sheet?