Hole In The Two Hole?

Hmmmm....

This was one of those quiet acquisitions — other than Johan Santana's reaction to it in Minny — that can make a huge difference in October. Ruben Gotay had been filling in admirably for the injured Jose Valentin, but now the Mets have a slick-fielding veteran for the playoffs. (Castillo's record of 143 straight games without an error at second was equaled by Placido Polanco on Sunday.) A willing two-strike hitter, Castillo is the perfect guy to have in the 2-hole behind Jose Reyes. Castillo is hitting .326 since coming to New York in a deal that cements the Mets as the favorites in the NL.

I like the deal, but it cements the Mets as the favorite? Castillo does all that for the Mets?

I think what Paul LoDuca did last year is nice and all, but I'm quite partial to guys who can hit rather than situationally hit. Not that situational hitting is bad. I think it absolutely has its place and a team should know how to do so in case they need to grind out a run. But as a a way of life? I just think having a flat out better hitter is not exactly a bad thing when it comes to the two spot.

There seems to be a perception that a certain type of hitter needs to be batting second. While that might be necessary in certain types of lineups, good lineups that have a very good hitting deep into the lineup probably do not need to manufacture runs a lot. And if a team does not need to manufacture runs a lot, why have a situational hitter smack in the middle of speed and power? Reyes has been proficient at scoring runs no matter who hits behind him and the numbers seem to suggest that. Omar and Willie's ideal #2 hitter is probably a bit unnecessary as their ideal #2 hitter lives and breath to move Jose over.

This link and the below blurb are courtesy of David who emailed me.

Its from the National Severe Storms Laboratory--go figure. Anyway, runner on 2nd, no outs, the probability of scoring a run is 0.633 and expected runs that inning are 1.13. Bunting the runner to 3rd but giving up the out--probability of scoring a run only rises to 0.667, a pretty marginal increase. But the expected runs that inning drops down to 0.96. So the probability of scoring a run rises by 0.034, while the expected runs drops by 0.17. And this is based on tens of thousands of observations. So given that Castillo is batting .300 and has some astounding number of infield hits {and conversely outs}, what exactly is the benefit of the sacrifice?

On the other hand, with the bases loaded and one out, as in the top of the 7th as I write, the probability of scoring a run is 0.678 and expected runs are 1.57...and we got bupkis.

Of course many will point to things not in the box score or things that cannot be quantified that a player of Castillo's ilk would contribute. If you look at Ruben Gotay's VORP and Luis Castillo's VORP, Gotay is ahead 13.3 to 8.5. But that is not fair right? Castillo brings defense to the table which was the biggest reason he was brought over and VORP does not account for defense.

WARP1 does and Gotay's WARP1 is 1.4 and Castillo has a 1.3 WARP1 with the TWins and a .2 WARP1 with the Mets. So they are basically even then, right? Not really. WARP1 rewards playing time. So, for any player that had their playing time minimized due to injury, benching, or whatever would be negatively impacted in regards to WARP1. Gotay has 64 games played and 137 at-bats versus Castillo's 77 games played and 382 at-bats. This is not to rip the move of acquiring Castillo. I think he has value to a club like the Mets and they got him for free.

However, it is entirely possible Gotay is more valuable right now than Castillo even when their defense is factored in. Of course this assumes Gotay's offense is for real and to what capacity his offense if for real. He is obviously not a .350 hitter, but he looks like the real thing and has a pretty impressive swing. I do wish the Mets would reconsider giving the #2 to a situation hitter this year and definitely next year.

The Mets could easily roll with a Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Delgado, Alou, Green, LoDuca, Castillo lineup (a balanced lineup like Willie likes) and probably be better off. If Milledge or Gotay see some playing time, they fit nicely into the #2 hole. I do not think a slap hitter batting second really gives them their best opportunity to score runs. However for the rest of the season, Gotay should be seeing more playing time right now to keep a potentially valuable bat warm. Castillo and Gotay are both going to be valuable should the Mets make the playoffs and hopefully both get used in the correct spots.

Just an aside...not to belabor the point, but if the Mets are willing to sacrifice offense for defense at second, why is the lack of offense and defense not dealt with in right?

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More on what Bobby Jenks has done this season (stolen for a Rob Neyer's comments on his blog)

How rare is it to retire 41 consecutive batters in today's American League? Assuming an avg OBP of 0.337 (as Casey Stengel or Baseball Annie would say - "you could look it up"), then the odds are roughly 1 in 20.8 million chances. Assuming 30 teams multiplied by 162 games - you would expect to see this event randomly occur every 4200 years or so. If you assume the pitcher is pitching with supreme confidence and the hitters are totally bewildered and as such then lower the expected OBP all the way down to 0.300 then it is much less rare - would happen every 460 years or so. I know unwashed writer Neyer is a bit of a stat geek so I thought this tidbit would be appropriate here. (not trying to label anyone here - god forbid!)

I'm just going to take his word for it. It's fucking special.

Good win. Good lineup. Seven tough outs and excellent defense with the exception of left and first.

Pedro is chugging along the comeback trail and though he is making progress, it is unclear exactly how much of impact he might have. At this point, it is still asking a lot to expect much from him. He simply does not have all that much time to get back into the swing of things after such a long layoff of not picking up a baseball. Of course it is Pedro and his guile may be enough for him to effective.

Barry says one more year, but why stop with one? He is on pace to finish the season with 768 homers. That is 32 away from 800 for those of you who are mathematically challenged. Of course he has no shot at Oh's 868, but DHing for the another two seasons should propel him well into the 800s which is just insane. It would be really hard to retire if he does not manage to hit #800 in 2008.

I'm not sure Posada or Pudge would be the perfect catcher for the money they would command. I still think the two headed catching beast of Castro and LoDuca would be just fine since I expect this Met lineup to be pretty deep. Of course that is dependent upon them actually being OK with sharing time.