A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

The Quick and Dirty: Santana Thoughts and Rumblings

While I do think the Indians could afford to keep CC, any of this poppycock about the Twins being able to afford Johan is nuts. A long term contract to Johan could be very, very dangerous for them. They will receive a bump up in revenue from their new stadium, but they would be toeing the line.

Player Expense:

'97: $42m
'98: $29m
'99: $21m
'00: $27m
'01: $42m
'02: $53m
'03: $70m
'04: $69m
'05: $73m
'06: $76m

Profit:
'97: ($16m)
'98: ($7m)
'99: $02m
'00: $06
'01: $04m
'02: $00m
'03: ($7mm)
'04: $00m
'05: $07m
'06: $15m

Where exactly is there anything to suggest they could afford him without taking on too much risk? Their 4 year $20m per year offer is probably as far as they want to go when you factor in their need to pay up for other young guys like Slowey, Mauer, Liriano, Young, etc. down the line. Anything Smith says contrary to dealing him is just a bluff and as I sated before, Pohlad and his billions have nothing to do with this. Owners do not and should not dip into their own pockets and assuming they should is wrong.

The 2006 season marked their highest revenue ever with $131 million and their highest profit margin. Should any team really offer a contract worth more than their yearly revenue, which Santana has been rumored to be looking for? It should also be noted that 2006's profits were aided by a trip to the playoffs as well so it stands to reason they probably pocketed a little less in 2007 being they had virtually the same attendance. If something goes wrong with Johan, it could paralyze that team for a long time and that is why he will not be a Twin come opening day and the front office understands why they have to deal him if he does not accept their current offer. The question is at this point, who blinks first.

"The Mets are legitimately in this," an official from one team involved said. "It would be a mistake to minimize their chances." This official theorized the Twins might be willing to take a deal with the Mets if it is close to Boston's because that would get Santana out of the AL.

There was a report yesterday out of the Dominican Republic that the Mets had pulled Gomez from his Winter League team. But Met officials said it was their plan to limit Gomez's games, and that this was not the prelude to a trade. The Mets are known to have offered a package built around Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.


It seems Lester has not been pulled off of the table and I still like that deal the best for the Twins. They get talent and more importantly talent ready to play in the bigs from day one. That is not to say the Met deal is bad as it has more upside, but a lot more risk as well. If the Twins make a decision based on moving Santana out of the AL rather than what they think the best haul of talent is, they are utterly ridiculous. While it may be counterintuitive to give the best team in the league coming off a World Series win arguably the best pitcher the league, they have to take what is best for them regardless if he stays in the AL.

* * *

  • How are the two deals related? I do not see how they should be when you look at the fact Bedard is inked for another season. Regardless though, the Mets offer still looks favorable with the rumored Seattle packaged and Bedard should get a bit more in return, which is what is happening. If the Twins try and use this as leverage, Omar needs to stand pat.

    If Angelos kills this deal, he will have set the Orioles back a bit. I think Jones is going to be a star and I think it is a solid deal for them.

    This is as good of a time as any to post my yearly Peter Angelos picture. Most of you have heard his name, but have not placed the horror that is his face with the name.



    Disturbing, I know. Everytime I see him I just think Grendel. Let us review what traits some believe Grendel to have.

    Grendel

    Vaguely human in shape, though much larger.
    His disembodied head is so large that it takes four men to transport it.
    When Grendel's torn arm is inspected, Heaney describes it as being covered in impenetrable scales and horny growths.
    Every nail, claw-scale and spur, every spike
    and welt on the hand of that heathen brute was like barbed steel.
    Everybody said there was no honed iron hard enough to pierce him through, no time proofed blade that could cut his brutal blood caked claw

    Yup. Sounds like Angelos.

  • I totally get why people think the Mets are dead in the NL East. Forget the fact the Phillies lost Aaron Rowand's career year of offensive output and their backend of the rotation is missing, they signed Pedro Feliz and are looking at Kris Benson. Game...set...match.

  • There is something comical about this.
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    25 Comments:

    Anonymous Danny said...

    The Angelos-Grendel comparison is pure genius. Bravo.

    While I agree that the Twins should make the best deal for the franchise regardless of league, perhaps they would be more willing to take a deal with more risk, but higher upside, just to get him out of the American League. What is worse for PR? Having to face Santana a couple of times every seson, or having to weather the initial criticism of making the higher risk deal? I'm not sure. It's a tough decision, and while I think Billy Smith as embarassed himself to a certain extent by his indecisiveness in this process, it's certainly a challenging decision.

    11:05 AM

     
    Blogger Anthony said...

    Buster Olney is reporting on espn.com that a decision on Johan could come as soon as today. Going to be very interesting to see how this thing shakes out.

    11:21 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    perhaps they would be more willing to take a deal with more risk, but higher upside, just to get him out of the American League.

    I'm not disagreeing with this at all. If the Twins like the Met deal better, they should absolutely take it. If they truly like Gomez a lot (as some do), then they surely might like what the Mets are offering better.

    What I have issue with is if they say, "well the Red Sox deal is better, but we get to ship him off to the NL." That is a horrible way to run your team. You need to field the best team you possibly can and everything should work towards that goal. You should not be trying getting all the top talent out of the AL at the expense of making your team better.

    Of course if you view the two offers as truly close enough, that could be a tipping point. It just looks like this Twin team is more so looking to retool than rebuild and I think the Red Sox deal is better in that regard. Of course, three of the four Met players could be in the bigs by late '08 and all are under control for six years a piece. Maybe I am just overvaluing Lester's experience and it is closer than I think in terms of MLB ready talent and overall value.

    11:27 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Anthony...If the hammer drops today, I am getting inebriated.

    11:28 AM

     
    Blogger Anthony said...

    Ha. No doubt. The question will be what kind of inebriation will it be? Will we be happy or disgusted inebriated? Time will tell.

    11:42 AM

     
    Anonymous rick m said...

    I know they have to sell tickets, and they have Morneau and Mauer right now, but the Twins can't really be thinking retool over rebuild. That Tiger team is going to be very good for the next two or three years, as are the Indians. I'd pin their playoff hopes before 2010 at remote, even with the talent they have and the addition of Lester & Ellsbury. Does the same Twin team with the BoSox duo sound better than last year's team with Johan and Torii Hunter? Nope. The Mets passel of prospects probably better fits their long-term plans. Or maybe I'm just getting delirious at the idea of acquiring a proven Cy Young winner...

    The Estrada development is pretty funny. I guess we'll now know for sure if Church and Schneider is really an upgrade over Milledge and a LoDuca-Estrada tandem.

    11:53 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Time will tell indeed. However, after the first five or so, it is good no matter what went down.

    11:53 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Rick, I am not going to argue with you. The Twins short term outlook is bad with the talent in the AL Central, but if they rebuild, they would be wasting their young talent and might as well just trade them, no?

    They kind of have to try and retool because they do have some nice players, but as you mentioned, they will remain fringy. Though, if Liriano comes back healthy, I think they will be ok since he is a true ace.

    Perkins, Liriano, Slowey, Mulvey?, Baker, etc.

    Not really all that bad.

    11:56 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Perkins, Liriano, Slowey, Mulvey?, Baker, etc.

    It would look better if they still had Garza, but what can ya do.

    If the deal goes dwon, yes, I may to get wasted. But that's Phase 1. Phase 2, singing him. Can Omar convince Fred to fork over the $$$ that Santana wants?

    God I hope so.....

    - Nokes

    11:59 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I agree. I love Garza, but Young is a pretty good consolation prize, no?

    I think they needed offense more and that is what they did. I cannot fault them for that and they got back a former #1 prospect who is still VERY highly touted.

    Phase 1 and Phase 2 are contingent upon each other, no? No way it gets completed with the extension being in place and I'm sure it will not take long to hammer out.

    Have faith! Leave the pessimism (and kidnapping) to Emad!

    12:16 PM

     
    Anonymous rick m said...

    They are in a tough spot, who would imagine that developing MVPs and Cy Young winners would make the job of the GM more difficult??

    Here's my Twin outlook: they take a decent team into year one of their new stadium, and then take that group of young talent (under contract for a few years, still) and trade them out into a team that will be very competitive in 2012 or so. It's the only way for a low-revenue team to compete: see Marlins, 2003.

    12:18 PM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    You have to admit that the Marlins got lucky in 2003. They've still never won a division, at least the Twins do that from time to time.

    Funny, when I see Angelos, I see Jaba the Hut.

    12:24 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    They are in a tough spot, who would imagine that developing MVPs and Cy Young winners would make the job of the GM more difficult??

    Ha. When you have money, I guess it is! Mo' talent, mo' problems. It is a vicious cycle the Twins, A's, etc. go through.

    I do agree that they have two years to get the kiddies ready. Gomez will really be ready by then (unless he is a bust) and Guerra should be as well.

    Humber should be in the pen and Mulvey should be in the rotation. So maybe the fruits of their trade will be ready and pulling their weight while everyone else (Mauer, Kubel, Liriano, Baker, Perkins, Casilla, Young, Morneau, etc.) are still there and killing it.

    Though, I think by not bringing Santana back, they would be making a statement they are going to do what they can to keep doing Morneau type deals and get some financial predictability and try and retain these young guys.

    They might start doing what the Rays and Rockies did and ink guys that are two years in.

    Sidd…alls it takes is a wing and a prayer man. You gotta be in it to win it and the Marlins did that. I cannot fault them for being lucky or hot at that time, they’ve still one it twice while the Mets have done nothing!

    Of course, I do think the Marlins take it all to the next level. You certainly do not have to be as drastic as they are about rebuilding every X amount of years.

    12:32 PM

     
    Blogger Anthony said...

    I give the Twins a lot of credit on how they build their players from within. They seem to have an incredible system from the ground up on teaching these kids how to compete and learn the proper way how to play hard in the majors. They seem to groom them the right way and somehow have been a team who is in contention for the most part over the last decade. Very impressive. I think between what they did with the Tampa trade along with the current crop of players they have and add in either the Mets or Sox group of kids, they could be very solid pretty quickly. They are in a hardass division though. So it will be tough to hang in there.

    3:02 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    The Twins actually have only been OK in drafts in my opinion.

    Santana, Liriano, Bonser, and Nathan were all non-draftees (Rule 5, trade, and trade).

    I think they have a done a great job of filling in the gaps via trades which is why Twins fans should give the org the benefit of doubt when it comes to this deal.

    They are a smart team for sure and what they have done is astounding. Sure, they have not won anything, but I am sure a lot of people would be more than happy to have their team be in contention year after year (including us).

    Also, it is funny how everyone was pointing to the Mauer pick over Prior as being what is wrong with baseball (including myself). They could not afford the 'better' player so they went with the hometown hero.

    Not many people think they made the wrong move these days.

    3:22 PM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    I'm starting to get irrationally excited about the possibility of getting Santana.

    Where is Emad to quell my excitement?

    3:33 PM

     
    Anonymous Dep said...

    I CAN'T FOCUS.

    GET THIS DONE.

    I refuse to discuss anything until this is resolved.

    Except bacon and women.

    3:34 PM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    When the Twins selected Mauer, everyone said that it was due to signability issues. As you said, it turned out great for the Twins. They are realistic about who they can sign, and that's better than what the Mets have been doing with the past couple of drafts. They have wasted a number of high draft picks due to slotting. The Twins just have to go with whatever is best for their team, and the hell with the writers who don't know shite.

    If you get a chance, read the Brian Bannister interview on MLB Trade rumors. After reading the interview, it's obvious to me that he is knowledgable and articulate about pitching, it was refreshing. The most interesting part of the interview is when he talks about the 3 types of pitchers that can be successful, he puts Santana and Bedard in the same category, along with OP.

    Regarding the Estrada story, every time a Nats writer mentions Flores, I want to puke.

    3:38 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Danny...I share your irrational exuberance.

    Mmmmm...bacon wrapped women.

    Sidd, and that is why I have confidence in the Mets deal. The writers are not making the decision. Informed baseball people are with a great track record. Who should I side with? Klapish? Or the Twins?

    You’ll never catch me bashing the Flores situation. An A ball catcher? Who would have thought it!

    3:59 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    'Danny...I share your irrational exuberance.'

    Go outside and get me a switch! Something whippy.

    If this is a 4-1 sans F-Mart, its merely a very dangerous deal. If this is a 5-1 with F-Mart, i'm slitting my fucking wrists.

    'Mmmmm...bacon wrapped women.'

    The deadliest taboo.

    Emad

    4:23 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    'You’ll never catch me bashing the Flores situation. An A ball catcher? Who would have thought it!'

    The Nationals were going to suck regardless. The risk was there. You keep the catcher over Jason fucking Standridge.

    Emad

    4:32 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Yeah, but teams suck every year.

    I'll agree on the Standridge thing, but I'm sure the Mets have learned their lesson.

    You weren't shocked? I mean, not meany sucky teams have done anything like that before. Pitchers, yes. Not position players.

    4:34 PM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    we got santana!

    5:07 PM

     
    Blogger Anthony said...

    WE GOT SANTANA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AND STILL HAVE F-MART!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    5:12 PM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    i think that people have to take those words for minaya they had earlier. he managed to get a 2 time cy young award winner w/o giving up reyes or our #1 prospect

    5:18 PM

     

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