A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

You Gotta Know When To Hold 'Em

Rory (NYC): Can you take a question about Carlos Gomez? What is his ceiling? Has he jumped Lastings Milledge on the Mets OF depth chart?

SportsNation Jim Callis: I can. His ceiling is huge and this year, with the way he's performed, I have more belief that he can reach it. He's definitely ahead of Milledge on the Mets' depth chart and I bet Milledge gets dealt in the next six months.


It has been really encouraging to see Gomez perform at the big league level at his age and it realy seems like he is the real deal. However in regards to prospects overall, if a team had three impact prospects that they developed through their system during the same time period that profiled to be frontline/all-star type players, they would be ecstatic. The Mets have six position players and two starters who are in the bigs now or will be ready by 2009. 2009 at some point should feature all of them with the exception of either Gomez, Milledge, or Martinez and it seems Milledge will be the odd man out.

In an ideal world, Milledge doesn't get traded. He's not a malcontent like Elijah Dukes. Lastings has always been apologetic and remorseful when it hits the fan. His mind operates in different fashion and sometimes he may not make the best decisions, but he is malleable. Next season Gomez and Milledge should be with the big club and Fernando should be allowed to take his time to develop. He may not be ready for 2009 and I would rather hedge my bets than just blindly give a nineteen year old a big league postion when he is merely holding his own on AA and having trouble staying on the field.

Then when all are ready, you can pull the tigger on a trade. It's also possible that things happen. Injuries happen. Players do hit bumps in their developmental road and sometimes the bump is too big for them to overcome. That being said, if the right deal comes along you make the deal. Even if the player excels just as Hanley Ramirez has, the deal could very well still be in the best interest of the team and I think Bostom makes that deal again given what they know now.

On the pitching front, I am extremly less optimistic. The Mets do have a good number of second tier, mid to back rotation starters like Stoner and Niese, but their two front end guys in Pelfrey and Humber have lost a bit of their star quality. They are still two pitchers plenty of teams would love to have, but one had to has to lower expetations a bit give what they have done this season. Humber is coming off a major surgery and just needs time and Pelfrey simply needs to refine his secondary stuff. They do have a good chance at becoming frontline starters, but I'm not quite as optimistic as I was prior to the season.

Then there is Kevin Mulvey and his four solid pitches. I think he just might be pitching himself into frontline prospect status this season. His career stats truly compare favorably with the other two during their Minor League careers and he has done nice things in AA. He has only given up one homer in a hitters league in 81 innings this year and only two in his career in slighty less than 100 innings and has been a groundball pitcher so far as well. Also, he has kept lefties in check holding them to a 2.81 ERA in 32 innings though his .290 BAA could use a bit of work.

All in all, the Mets are in a very good position. Just letting everyone come along and stay with the big team could be extremely helpful to them winning multiple championships. The Mets may have done a lot of wrong things from '01 through '05, but they did draft well and the future definitely does look favorable.

* * *

  • Yikes.

    Kevin (Washington, D.C.): "Eric, I am a terrible person. My lovely fiance and I have been together for seven years. About three years ago, her favorite aunt, who was 92 years old, passed away suddenly. She was a wonderful woman. My fiance was broken up about it, as was I. When my fiance (girlfriend at the time) asked me to accompany her to the funeral in New Jersey, I told her that I certainly would, but that's when it hit me that the funeral was going to be the day of my fantasy baseball draft. After agreeing to be with her at the funeral, I had to think of a way to get out of it. After all, this was the only league I was in at the time, and I was the defending champion. The house in New Jersey we would be staying at (her parents) had no Internet service, but I probably wouldn't have had time anyway since our drafts take forever. I contemplated what to do for a day or so, and mentioned my problem to all my co-workers. The consensus was that if I didn't go I am a terrible person. Well, I didn't go. After thinking about excuses, I told her that I really dislike funerals, and that they are too sad and I wouldn't be able to handle it. Eventually, she agreed that she would go to attend without me. I felt awful about the whole thing until the draft ended and my team was awesome. I had the first pick, got Alex Rodriguez, and ended up winning the league again. However, in the process, it solidified the fact that I suck. I am getting married to this girl in September, and she still has no idea the real reason behind me missing the funeral. Since that time, I have attended two of her other relatives' funerals, thinking that maybe that has made up for it. Am I the worst?"

    Eric: I know this is a long e-mail, but I had to run it. Yes, Kevin, you are a terrible person. Priorities, people! We've been talking about how we check our fantasy teams while on vacation, but I think this crosses the line. I've forwarded this blog to your fiancé. Best of luck!


  • I'm sure Yankee fans would have a lot to say about this, but they seem to have issues grasping reality.

    Ryne (Peekskill, NY): For the next 5 years, Mets or Yankees?

    SportsNation Jim Callis: Mets.


  • LoDuca is none too happy with the media attention he's received from his blow up.

    The irascible catcher seemed annoyed his recent meltdown and suspension were receiving so much attention, griping, "I get thrown out of a game and it's bigger news than the war in Iraq."

  • Glavine just missed the Mets first no hitter by one Scott Rolen grounder, but I do not think any of us would have wanted it to come via a rain shortened game. Gomez was also a stud on defense and that really outlines a huge reason why should be out there everyday. Not only has he opened some eyes with his time on the big club with his bat, but his defense is flat out amazing.

  • F-Mart gets DL'd again.

  • Pedro throws a bullpen session and him returning is looking more like a certainty than a possibility these days. The question still remains just how effective he'll be, but given his track record there is certainly reason to believe he will be pretty damn good.

  • The White Sox and Buehrle appear to be close to a deal. That may not be a bad thing because that is not the Mets problem right now. Offense and the bullpen is and with Pedro throwing batting practice, they should wait and see how he progresses before they go trading off useful chips.

  • Meanwhile, the Mets are interested in Jose Contreras. I really cannot support that in any way unless it miraculously has nothing to do with Pelfrey, Humber, Gomez, Fernando, or Lastings. Even Mulvey for that matter. I don't see how he really helps the team and he would certainly cause either The Duque, Maine, or Oliver to be bumped from the rotation after Pedro returns which is just nuts. I don't see the point if someone does not truly help the team and Contreras through '09 does not.

  • < href="http://www.startribune.com/twins/story/1272942.html">Torri Hunter would like to stay with the Twins and might take a hometown discount to do it. Really, I know there are always those people out there who say, "would you take less money to stay at one company vs. leaving?" The answer is yes and that doesn't even matter. These guys have more money than they will ever need and that does factor in heavily to the equation here.
  • 18 Comments:

    Anonymous DG said...

    Great post, Mike. I completely agree. There should be no rush sending Milledge elsewhere; moreover, as I've been saying for months, if the Mets upgrade offensively at second base (while keeping solid if unspectacular defense at the position) there should be no reason not to see Carlos, Carlos & LMillz at Shea next year.

    I must say that I was a Gomez doubter last year but have completely turned around. There's no doubt in my book that his upside is higher than Lasto. And while I'd characterize F-Marts season a little more friendly than "merely holding his own." He's been more of a singles hitter than one would like, but I think personally that the only dig on him is his plethora of minor injuries (the hand likely accounting for his single life). But yes, he does not need to be rushed!

    And I will add that I think that it was quite evident from ST on that this was going to be Lasto's breakout year, and I still expect we'll see an impact. The media has already dumped the guy, but I don't think that is necessarily true of the rank and file. He looked ready before he got hurt. And he's not psychotic...

    Unlike Mr. LoDuca who seems to be wilting a bit under the NY microscope. His incarnation of the devil was pretty funny, and we are lucky, I think, that he'll be around for the Philly series. Well not I think, I mean it was DeFelice or Alomar which is like ordering sushi in a chinese restaurant and expecting it to be good. But back on point, I'm starting to wonder if the time where we say goodbye to Paulie comes roughly after the Mets win the Series this year.

    I'm down on Pelfrey but not as much on Humber who pitched very well his last start and I expect will have a strong second half. Mulvey has been fine, and if he can be a Bobby Jones-like cog in the back of the rotation, I would be very happy. He's solid all around, but I don't think that elevates him to being exceptional.

    Thinking too that this year's draft was & is a nice suprise. I think the team did well, especially given that they filled in the depleted future pen needs. This kid Abruzzo looks like he can rake, but I must admit that it's pretty weird to see that Kingsport has a winning record. What gives? Well at least there's always Savannah for abject suckiness!

    8:21 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Well, I would say he’s doing no more than holding his own. When you factor age into it you can make a argument he is doing more, but he certainly isn’t lighting things up. In reaslity, one has to wonder if he’s not a level too high. I’m not 100% sure on either side as to whether the Mets challenging their three young outfielders is good or if they just have not taken enough time with them. Not one of them has lit up any league they are in. How many top prospects can say they’ve never lit up a level? High average low power is not lighting much up either.

    That being said, they all seem like the real deal and more likely to attain their lofty ceilings. I 100% agree that Gomez appears to have not only a higher ceiling than Milledge, but a MUCH higher ceiling. That being said, Milledge is reeeaaaally good.

    I don’t think LoDuca is wilting. He says what’s on his mind and that’s that. He can stand up to everyone.

    Mulvey could certainly be a back end guy, but I think his stuff is strikingly similar to Maine’s. Four pitch repertoire with four solid pitches (though nothing +) and throws low 90’s with the ability to chuck one 94. I think he is going to be better than expected. I really do.I can’t explain his lackluster stats at a bad school for baseball, but I think he’s solid.

    The thing about Humber is this…Keith Law had said that the stitches are higher on college baseballs allowing them to throw bigger and better curves. It could be that his 12 to 6 isn’t quite as good in the pros and his surgery takes a little more off it. Just saying…..something could be a little off. He’s certainly got touched up a bit this year and check out his HR rate in pro ball. It is not pretty at all.

    Kingsport! I don’t have time to go past St. Lucie box scores these days. Whatever is Junior Contreras doing this season?

    8:55 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Nice:

    1. Gomez vs Milledge. The Milledge luster was lost somewhat in left field last yr as milledge was slow in transitioning to that corner. I think Gomez has that spot (next yr) and should at least platoon with moises.

    2. Greenies contract runs out this year. No doubt Mill has first crack at THAT corner with some FA mercenary vying for time.

    3. I like the Mulvey/Boobby Jones analogy.

    4. I like Humber more than Pelfrey too.
    5. I disagree with you MM. Did we forget that AARP member-president El Duque injured himself preparing for the playoff opener? we need MORE top line pitching (for the playoffs). Ala.. CWS my ideal team has Buerle/Javy Vazquez, followed by Ollie, Maine, Glavine, Pedro...with El Duque coming into the 6th/7th (or earlier). Yes he is often fantastic but think how he would be as a reliever...watch some WS classics.

    With Glavine retiring/going back to Atl next season there is another open spot for Humber/Mulvey to compete for.

    As such I'd let Ken Williams et al get Pelfrey if we net Buerle or Vazquez. especially if we keep Milledge and he fills RF. PS I think milledge (again) is a facimile of Jermaine Dye...but Gomez might be a Carlos Beltran (per Omar no less).

    9:49 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    we need MORE top line pitching (for the playoffs)

    I wouldn’t argue that but I would argue that Contreras is not it which is my point. I’m okay dealing for a guy who is appreciably better than what we have, but Jose is not that guy.

    I think Alou will be back no matter what next season. Cheap and effective (albeit oft-injured). The depth is there to carry him and gives the Mets a legitimate bat that just crushes the ball while hedging their bets with the young guys if they struggle.

    RE: Green…if Franco leaves (I shouldn’t have to say if, but I have not idea what to think with this guy), I wouldn’t mind seeing him back as a reserve if no one else will take him as a starter and Alou does not come back.

    Mulvey > Jones. Simply said. I think that’s an underestimation. Professor likes him so I like him.

    What’s the deal with Vazquez? Is it 2000? Am I missing something? Nice year this year so far, but 4.91, 4.42, and 4.84 the last three years? I cannot condone trading for him even though he’s inked through 2010. I actually like Buehrle more, but that’s not happening.

    10:32 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Thanks for the reply:

    a. I like Pelfrey, and unlike Olney I think this IS a win now team AND win later. I WOULD trade Pelfrey, but NOT for Contreras (a ruse I suspect). I think Oswalt is #1, but Vazquez and Buerle are likely too. note Milwaukee and La are looking quite potent and Matt Kemp is real..
    Along those lines..a move to the NL will boost Vazquez and he and Omar have history. If Pelfrey gets dangled I think we will net Buerle. Besides with Maine/Ollie/Buerle-Vazquez/Pedro there is enough depth untill Humber/Deolis et al are ready.

    B. I'm fixated on Mike Lamb to bolster the bench.

    12:10 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Milwaukee and LA are good and if LA’s young guys keep coming along and Loney and Kemp keep mashing, that is scary.

    Vazquez was in the NL posting some high ERAs with Arizona. I’m just not sold on him returning to Expo form, but I know that Omar loves his old guys so anything is possible. I’d prefer to keep the upside of Pelfrey than possibly deal him for a marginal pitcher that is not exactly cheep, though a relative bargain these days.

    I can’t argue with Lamb on the bench. He has some pop and isn’t he lefty?

    1:49 PM

     
    Blogger AE said...

    not that anyone cares other than me but for the record, david newhan has a line of .315/.381/.574 down in new orleans in 15 games of play. the guy, like a lot of other guys, just needs some regular work...

    it's too bad willie doesn't trust him in the field. he played a decent centerfield for the orioles last year and can play 2nd base really well...

    i still think newhan has a spot on this team when alou and endy are healthy...no point in leaving gomez on the bench...

    4:02 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Well if using Newhan means less Franco, sign me the fuck up.

    4:35 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Well; Please note that going 3-6 ewith a HR and a handfull of rbi only got Gotay several infrequent OPH appearances this past week, although he WAS in the line up last night.

    after seeing Metsblog I see the problem. Omar should just Re-neg Valentins 2008 contract then he can just platoon with Gotay.

    Newhan has no place. he's not needed in the OF and not at 2nd. Trade him to Houston for Lamb.

    5:59 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    BTW: how do Mets Fans feel about Ron Gardenhire?

    Why wasn't he given a longer look for manager instead of WR?

    6:01 PM

     
    Anonymous ossycocotaso said...

    no way newhan makes this roster ever again. franco blows but he was never picked up to be a great hitter off the bench. he was over 45 when he was signed.

    gomez is the shit.i didnt wanna get too excited about him but this cup of coffee has turned into an everyday job. he should stay there when endy comes back. endy is better off the bench and itll be interesting to see how gomez fairs when he gets scouted.

    why did gotay flame out in KC? i need to see more b4 i can ask for him to be platooned

    it would be nice to get abother starter just cus u can never have too much pitching. we saw that last year. i dont wanna pay out the ass for contreras though

    12:27 AM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    I think that Newhan could be valuable, because he can play both in the infield and the outfield. He has had some hot streaks with the Orioles, as well. He's not a great outfielder, but he can play as well as some guys that started there, like Benny Agbayani, for example.

    I agree, Kevin sucks.

    9:11 AM

     
    Blogger Sidd Finch said...

    On Friday, I got a call from my Mom's husband, a Phillies fan, asking me whether the Sillies were going to win 3 or 4 games this weekend. Payback's a bitch. Sweet.

    9:12 AM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    how the fuck didnt maine make the all star team?

    8:31 PM

     
    Blogger Z said...

    if anyone is interested, I found this page that has up to date Mets news feeds

    http://www.dcdeal.com/mets

    9:46 AM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Unfortunately Maine didn't make the all star team I think because we had four others already going. Total bullshit when you look at the lineup of pitchers on the roster. Sucks. He deserved it for sure.

    Anthony

    3:07 PM

     
    Anonymous sidd finch said...

    It's getting pretty ugly.

    "You saw the series. We ran into a team that was locked in," Paul Lo Duca said. "The middle of their order can hit. Holliday, Helton, Atkins, Hawpe. I bet they had 12 hits. It was a helpless feeling this weekend. We couldn't do anything to stop them. We could have had Jesus on the mound and they still would have gotten hits." - Paulie L. from Queens

    I don't think Jesus is available, but the Mets sure could use something right about now.

    9:03 AM

     
    Anonymous ossy said...

    gomez is out and they pick oswalt over maine for the allstar team?

    wtf?

    even with the win, this junk aint cool

    11:02 PM

     

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