A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Pointless Excerise: '07 Predictions

Of course most people like to do these things before the season starts, but it kind of didn't cross my mind until DG just reminded me. Here are his picks:

NL: Mets; Brewers; San Diego

AL: Boston; Cleveland; Angels

Wild Card: Diamondbacks (Braves may well be my second choice, arghh!!)
Detroit (AL is hard as Blue Jays & Yankees are both potentially there as well
- Detroit & Cleveland may flip-flop, but I’m pretty up on the Indians this year.

I don't think there is much to particularly argue against with his predictions as there are so many toss ups with few givens. There are only two teams I would feel comfortable guaranteeing a playoff spot to, but the rest is pretty much a crapshoot. In some instances it's a crapshoot because of a lack of talent and some instances simply have too much talent.

NL: Mets; Brewers; Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Braves

AL: Boston; Detroit; Angels
Wild Card: Cleveland

Yes, yes...I picked the Yankees to miss the playoffs for the 100th year in a row and one day I'll be right and it's going to be a day to remember. I just think Boston's rotation is going to lead them to an AL East crown and I think the division is a lot better top to bottom than people give credit for. The Devil Rays and the Orioles are going to be tougher opponents than people originally thought and there will be some beating up of each other to a certain extent.

As for the AL Wild Card and AL Central division winner, I see the Royals being a pushover for the most part with a large disparity between the cream of the crop in the division and them and I just think the White Sox and the Twins are not going to be all that good. I see two 90+ win teams in this division with the Tigers edging out the Indians, but I certainly would not complain if you flopped them around.

The AL West is the easiest for me to pick. The A's are a .500 team for me and I think the Angels rotation and bullpen are better than the A's, though the A's have the two best starters out of both teams. Add in Kendrick and a healthy Kotchman and I do not see anyone strong enough to take the Angels out.

In the NL, the Mets are far and away the best overall. I'm not going to get into the reasons why I think that because I think we sufficiently go over the topic on a daily basis. As for my Wild Card pick, I think the NL East is pretty weak. I think the Nationals are horrible, the Marlins are marginal, and the Phillies are vastly overrated. Their lineup is not very awe inspiring outside of their fearsome duo, their bullpen is horrendous, and their rotation is getting much more hype than they deserve. I truly think there will be a substantial amount of beating up on the lesser teams by the Braves and the Mets while they pile up wins whereas there are more closely grouped teams in the other two NL divisions.

The NL Central is perhaps the weakest division in baseball and the Cardinals are the defacto favorites, but I like the depth of the Brewer bullpen better, their rotation better, and their offense better. The Astros just do not have the firepower or rotation and everyone else might have their streaks, but will ultimately fall short. The Brewers are the sexy not-so under the radar pick, but I'm taking them too.

As for the NL West, the Diamondbacks have the most talent and the most upside. They have a young team on the offensive end of things that should be ready to make a big impact this year. Then you look at their rotation and bullpen and you can envision them being one of the top three teams in the league when all is said and done. The Padres and Dodgers are solid, but their offense is just not up to snuff for me and they are just not as well rounded as Arizona. In '08, I'm taking the Dodgers, but '07 belongs to the Diamondbacks.

Soooo....that's what I got. Let's see what everyone else's picks are for bragging rights at the end of the year.

* * *

  • The bright side of this weekend's two losses is that the Mets are still 4-2 and they pretty much lost on their own accord more so than getting flat out beat. Of course you do not want to take anything away from the Braves who still had to execute, but it is not hard to envision the Mets sweeping had they played a bit tighter defensively as they did in St. Louis and the first game with the Braves and someone came up with one big hit.

  • Just when Shawn Green was starting to build some much needed good will with fans, he managed to knock it all down. As long as Lastings is around, controversy is going to follow Green around.

  • 34-year old Mike Hampton is having setbacks. With his age and injury history, it is hard to envision him doing much of anything anymore.

  • Ponderous....

    Randolph made his first lineup change of the season Sunday against the Braves, giving catcher Paul Lo Duca a rest and moving second baseman Jose Valentin up in the lineup.

    Despite his .158 batting average, Valentin filled Lo Duca's No. 2 spot in the order, and backup catcher Ramon Castro hit in the No. 8 position.

    Willie just cannot make a lineup when his starters are out. Amazing.

  • Minor action:
    For complete recaps, go to Metsgeek.com.



    Anonymous John in RI said...

    AL: New York, Detroit, Los Angeles
    Wildcard: Cleveland

    NL: New York, St. Louis, Los Angeles
    Wildcard: Atlanta

    I ate picking Atlanta for anything.

    6:46 AM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    I hate picking Atlanta for anything as well. I'm waiting for someone to pick the Phillies and Atlanta to make the playoffs though.

    9:25 AM

    Blogger Coop said...

    I didn't pick Atlanta, I picked Philly for the WC in the NL.

    I also didn't pick the Yank-these to win the AL East, I picked the Sawx, but did pick them for WC. Although, I think that if the Yanks don't win the East, that no one from the East will make the WC.

    9:50 AM

    Blogger AE said...

    AE's predictions

    NL: Mets, Brewers, Dodgers, WC Braves
    AL: Yankees, Twins, Angels, WC Red Sox

    I am only positive that the Mets and Yankees will make the playoffs..everyone else is a crapshoot. there's lots of parity in every division...

    10:12 AM

    Anonymous Danny said...

    NL: Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, WC D-Backs
    AL: Red Sox, Twins, Angels, WC Yankees

    Hughes struggles, A-Rod opts out, and Yanks trade Hughes and Tabata for Miguel Cabrera in the offseason.

    Reyes, MVP (not Anthony)

    10:52 AM

    Anonymous Danny said...

    Francisco Pena is raking thus far at Low-A. Sweetness.

    His glove is supposed to be ahead of his bat.

    11:03 AM

    Blogger Kenny said...

    Mine are the same as AE's. Smart one, that AE.

    I hope I'm wrong though. Damned Yankees and Braves.

    12:00 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Danny…bold statement. Cabrera a Yank for Hughes and Tabata? Is that even enough?

    Reyes winning the MVP will be sweet and I hope people find the articles of Reyes for Soriano from Sherman and all those other peeps…How many MVPs has Soriano won? Even more crazy is that with Soriano’s adjusted age, if (and that’s a big if) Reyes can win it, he’ll have done it at an age that Soriano wasn’t in the league…or at least it was his first year.

    Kenny, siding with AE could be a fatal mistake. Although, I must admit there is a bit of optimism in my Yankee pick and not a ton of real world thought processes involved.

    12:23 PM

    Blogger Toasty Joe said...

    Is there ANYONE who will defend Willie's decision to let a wet-behind-the-ears righty who is prone to giving up the long-ball go after the reigning MVP with runners at second and third in a one-run game? I mean, ANYONE? Jeebus H. Christmas.

    3:24 PM

    Anonymous jake said...

    phillies bullpen = impressive

    4:22 PM

    Anonymous Danny said...

    The Mets probably won in spite of Willie today.

    4:59 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Is there ANYONE who will defend Willie's decision to let a wet-behind-the-ears righty who is prone to giving up the long-ball go after the reigning MVP with runners at second and third in a one-run game? I mean, ANYONE? Jeebus H. Christmas.

    Toasty, I'm not going to even touch it. If I say anything, I'll get called a Willie hater again. You know how I feel about Willie and in game strategies when the rubber hits the road.

    Jake, do I sense some sarcasm there?

    Danny, they won because Omar put good players on the team and their offense finally got to a bad bullpen. A really bad bullpen.

    I'm not thrilled with Willie's bullpen usage, though it is hard to complain about a win and it's hard to complain when the reigning MVP beats you. Ultimately, I hope Willie does learn. I think it was a somewhat tough call because he probably wanted to simply get innings from Burgos. But after a 12 pitch battle in his 2nd inning of work, you had a feeling he might be gassed. But no one was ready? What do you do? You might want to go to a lefty, but no one was going to get warm fast enough and Burgos did push him to two strikes.

    Minor details in a splendid win to drop the Phillies to 1-6!!!! And we beat their ace? I'm smelling sweeeeeeeeeeeeep.

    5:34 PM

    Anonymous Danny said...

    I would have walked Howard and gone to Smith to face Burrell probably. I actually think leaving in Burgos to face Utley and Howard was defensible because Burgos is a strikeout pitcher, those guys both strike out a lot and the situation called for 2 strikeouts with men on 2nd and 3rd and the Mets up by 1. Willie gambled and got burned. I think LoDuca's pitch sequence to Howard was awful. He had Burgos throw the same splitter on the outside corner 4 times. He missed his spot once and Howard was looking for it. Tip your cap. But after Utley's long at-bat, Burgos definitely had to be gassed mentally. Burgos made A LOT of good pitches so I was actually impressed with his effort. He made one bad pitch and the reigning MVP killed it.

    I was actually more perplexed when he pinch ran Endy for Shawn Green and then bunted with Stache, and had snail-runner Alou forced out at third. Not his best moment.

    5:52 PM

    Blogger Toasty Joe said...

    It's ok, Mike, I touched it already over at my blog. Willie's move was 100% indefensible.

    5:52 PM

    Blogger mr. met said...

    Good stuff danny. I have to say you make a pretty compelling case. I was thinking that something bad was going to happen after the young kid had such a rough at-bat and decently high pitch count.

    I didn't even know about that bunt thing. Wow...nutty stuff.

    Toasty, I'll head over now. Some good Willie bashing is always in my wheelhouse.

    9:01 PM


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