A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Monday, November 14, 2005

Thoughts On Manny

Manny, Manny, Manny. Where will Manny land if he lands anywhere at all? The two teams that pop up the most in the Manny trade rumors are the Mets and the Angels. The Angels have prospects and depth in the minor league system to get it done, but do not offer much ML talent outside of Ervin Santana and Casey Kotchman who can figure on making the 25 man roster opening day of 2006. On top of that, the Angels were reluctant to add Mike Sweeney and his big dollars last season and only lost three players in Tim Salmon, Bengie Molina, and Paul Byrd that made over million dollars off of last year's roster. Basically, all their big ticket items are still there. Throw on top Garret Anderson already in left and not interested in being a DH with the dollars owed to Manny and the inability to give the Red Sox any impact players to help out this year, and that is not exactly a perfect fit for the Red Sox, who are not in rebuilding mode. So who is realistically left? Possibly the White Sox should they not be able to retain Paul Konerko, but I cannot see them assuming that much salary in any way and probably cannot give the Red Sox much help on the ML level.

Who does that really leave? Basically, just the Mets. The Mets can offer major league help in the form of pitching and gold glove centerfielder with a prospect thrown in. Cammy fills a void that they have and they would rather not give Damon four years and would probably love him for two. They can't have that, but they can have Mike for two years. With Pedoria possibly being ready at some point this year, Jed Lowrie moving fast, and the short stop position filled for the foreseeable future , they probably want Hanley Ramirez in center in 2007/2008. This deal helps them accomplish that and frees up money for Konerko, whom they have interest in, as well as filling in a starting pitching void with Tracshel, Benson, Seo, or even Heilman (who I would rather they try and hang onto if possible).

Trading Manny makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox and they should be motivated and the Mets should not have to give up Milledge too because of the sheer dollar amounts they will be talking about. No other interested team can offer starting pitching/bullpen help/salary relief/centerfielder (Finley is not appetizing). If the Red Sox want to move Manny and Manny definitely wants to be moved, the Mets very may well be the ONLY suitors that really make sense or have the juice to get this deal done. Whether or not that is the right idea is another discussion. The emergence of David Ortiz as the most potent bat in the Red Sox lineup means they can go with a Konerko, Dunn, or Huff to supplant the offense while freeing up cash otherwise invested in Manny. He's a tough bat to replace, but no one said the Red Sox needed the same amount of offense to replace him. The Sox have some holes, but none of them are offensive. If Omar wants to go down this road, and we know he does, he needs to view this like he is in the driver's seat.

* * *

  • The Cubs tell Nomah to find another employer.

    The Cubs have not exactly told Nomar Garciaparra to take a hike, but they have advised the veteran free agent to feel free to see if he can "find a better fit" elsewhere.

  • The Mets have decided to jump in the pool with their clothes on and the cell phone in their pocket when it comes to Billy Wagner.

    Philadelphia, with a new GM in Pat Gillick, is scheduled to meet with Wagner and his agent on Wednesday. The club has already made an "informal" offer of two years with an option for a third year that will vest based on his number of appearances. The Mets are willing to guarantee three years at $10 million each and, if necessary, throw in a fourth. It was that guaranteed fourth year Pedro Martinez away from the Boston Red Sox last winter.

    They are prepared to outbid everyone for his services and if it comes down to "Stand" Pat Gillick vs. Omar Minaya, is there even a shot the Phillies retain him? The Phillies simply do not have as much wiggle room as the Mets when it comes to cash and if they cannot find some salary relief by way of moving Thome, they might not be able to go punch for punch with the Mets.

  • BA chat highlights with Matt Meyers on the Mets:

    Q: Chris from Kansas asks:
    If Mike Pelfrey had signed by now, where would he rate in the organizations top 10 and how long is it going to take for him to be in NY? Thank you.

    A: Matt Meyers:
    I knew there would be some Pelfrey questions about his potential ranking so I figured I would start there. If he had signed, he would have been #2 or #3. He was probably the best pitcher in the draft and has an electric fastball. I had this debate with someone in my office and I would have leaned towards staying with Petit at #2 simply because he has been dominant in pro ball for two years, but Pelfrey does have a higher ceiling.

    Though BA tabbed Petit as the 46th highest rated prospect prior the season (I'm not sure how much stock we can put in that since Eric Duncan was 36th) so we can figure on Pelfrey being in the 40th to 50th range from what Mr. Meyers is saying with a possibility of cracking into the high 30's if they decided that arm is going to carry him there without throwing a pitch professionally yet.

    Q: Matt from Brooklyn, Ny asks:
    Great chat, what major leaguer now would you compare lastings milledge to?

    A: Matt Meyers:
    One scout gave me a Torii Hunter comparison on Milledge, but if you look at their minor league numbers, Milledge's dwarf those of Hunter. I think he was speaking more about his motions in the field and on the bases. So I will say Torii Hunter, with 25 extra points of batting average and OBP.

    A rich man's Torrii Hunter? Sold.

    Q: chaz from port charlotte, florida asks:
    thanks for taking time to answer some of our questions. The Mets system(on the surface) lacks any true lefthanded power pitchers in the top 10(Marlins have a bunch), do you know of any that might be seen as a true prospect in the lower levels as a future mlb starting pitcher?

    A: Matt Meyers:
    The Mets have very little in the way of lefthanded pitching. The best they have is Jon Niese, who they nabbed in the 7th round this season and he only fell that far because teams thought he was a tough sign. He is very projectable and his fastball touched 94 this summer in the GCL and he has advanced feel for his change and curve. He is one of my favorite guys in the system.

    Sounds good to me.

    Q: Ryan from New York, New York asks:
    How would you rank the top ten simply in terms of upside?

    A: Matt Meyers:
    1. Milledge, 2. Gomez, 3. Martinez, 4. Petit, 5. Hernandez, 6. Humber, 7. Jacobs, 8. Soler, 9. Hernandez, 10. Bannister. Humber is a big X-factor there depending on how he recovers.

    In five years the Mets system could have produced a whole lot, or a whole little. I think feast or faminie would describe the overall state of the system.

    Q: steve from long beach asks:
    LHP... how about Eddy Camacho ( very solid at Brooklyn '04 ) a non drafted guy that skipped Hagerstown and had good numbers at St Lucie.

    A: Matt Meyers:
    I had once scout tell me he thought Camacho was a prospect and should get a shot at starting even though he is relieving now. He pitches at 90 mph with excellent feel for a change and a good idea how to pitch. His change has a nice fade and works well against righties.

    Any guy who flashes promise should be a starter and not a minor league reliever.

    Q: Sam from NJ asks:
    Can you give some information on how Hector Pellot has looked? So he's the purest hitter from the Mets draft of 2005 thus far...

    A: Matt Meyers:
    He looked great in instructional league by all accounts. He plays with a lot of energy and has an excellent line drive stroke. The Mets' did not get much in the way of hitters in the 2005 draft, so yes, he takes the title.

    Hector's performance will go a long way in making this past draft horrific or better than originally thought. Either way, it still will not be remembered as a good one.

    Q: Anand from Brooklyn, NY asks:
    What's your read on Andy Wilson? Might he have a future as a catcher, or is he another guy who's too old for his league and doesn't have a position?

    A: Matt Meyers:
    Wilson's bat looks legit as he has hit at every level, though he has been a little old for every level he has played. He doesn't really have a position and the Mets have tried him as a catcher though scouts aren't buying it. Once scout gave me a Kevin Millar comparison on him which I think would delight Mets fans if that happened, as long as we are not talking about Millar v. 2005.

    Mets seem to be stockpiling big bat, no position guys like they stock five tool outfielders.

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