A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

DIPS

My spirit has been bruised, but not 'Lima Timed'. I will take your constructive criticism on the much maligned new site design that has been scratched and constructively throw it out the window. The site design has gone back to the drawing board with less white as the goal. Personally I found the white soothing like a babbling brook, but to each his own. Back to business....

We often hear the terms lucky and unlucky when describing some baseball player's performances. Some people do not want to hear much of that and others believe to a certain extent there is luck involved. In terms of batting, it was Willie Keeler who said “I keep my eyes clear and I hit 'em where they ain't". Well, when you don't hit 'em where they ain't, that is termed unlucky. That has been something said about Cliff Floyd this season because he has been hitting the ball hard, but just at people.

In terms of pitchers, we can look at another Met in Heath Bell. His 2004 performance got a lot of fans giddy when he put up a 3.33 ERA at the end of the year and struck out a batter per inning. In 2005, he put up a high 5.59 ERA, but kept the ball in the park, struck out almost a batter per inning, and exhibited good control. The term unlucky was tossed around with him a lot because he had a high BIPA and the thought process is that eventually the BIPA would regress towards the league average.

Right or wrong, unlucky and lucky are used a lot in baseball. It is possible some people just suck, but when you factor in other things, it really looks like bad luck or good luck sometimes does exist. Now that I've wasted a lot of your time on stuff you already knew, on to the real point of the post.

A pitcher's ERA, independent of the defense behind him. This formula, based on essays by Voros McCracken, assumes that all pitchers have consistent BIPA (See Above), and adjusts accordingly.

I did not use the regular DIPS as I did not account for park factor, but I used the quick and dirty DIPS which does give a close result and gets the idea across. As for Heath Bell, his 2005 ERA was 5.59 and his 2005 dirty DIPS era was 3.13. Basically, he pitched a lot better than he his stats show according to Voros McCracken and since McCracken is a lot smarter than me, I tend to believe him. More on DIPS...

DIPS

* There are several possible outcomes for any pitched ball.
o Strikeout
o Walk/Hit Batsman
o Ball put into play resulting in Home Run
o Ball put into play resulting in an out
o Ball put into play resulting in a single, double or triple

* The pitcher has direct control over the first three, and there is a strong correlation between the players who lead these statistics from year to year. Nolan Ryan, Greg Maddux, Kerry Wood, Billy Wagner

* The last two are affected by the defense and can be summarized by Batting Average on Balls in Play (BAbip).

* Voros McCracken found that BAbip is only weakly tied to the pitcher, and there is very little consistency in who leads this statistic from year to year. It is primarily the result of defense and luck.

* You can compute a defense-independent ERA (dERA) based on the first three factors and this is a better predictor of next year's ERA than the current year's ERA is.


Now, let's take a look at the Mets pitchers this year and see who has been lucky and unlucky according to DIPS.
                  DIPS ERA  Actual ERA
Pedro Martinez 3.58 2.89
Steve Trachsel 3.87 4.96
Brian Bannister 4.99 2.89
Victor Zambrano 6.11 6.75
Tom Glavine 3.50 2.19
Aaron Heilman 2.49 1.96
Billy Wagner 4.65 2.39
Duaner Sanchez 2.60 0.41
Jorge Julio 3.84 4.28
Pedro Feliciano 2.34 0.93
Darren Oliver 2.23 3.86
It was pretty much on mark for what I thought it would be with the exception of Steve Trachsel and Tom Glavine. I knew Wagner's ERA was low for his performance and he got a bit 'lucky', I knew that Bannister was a bit 'lucky' as well, but Trachsel was surprising. Glavine and Pedro seem a bit high, but homers are heavily weighted and Pedro has given up six and Glavine had given up four while Trachsel has given up two. Now this of course is a small sample size so that has to be taken into account. For example, at this point in the season, a lot of homers can skew such a small sample size and a inordinate amount of strikeouts in limited work could skew the numbers. Nonetheless, it is interesting to get a temperature check of who is doing what.

* * *

  • I said on another site the other day blowouts are never good. I guess I lied. When it is your own team blowing out the other team, it is absolutely good. Especially in front of America's most uncouth fan base. Glavine is just dealing out a world of hurt to the opposition and has been hitting like Ted Williams as he raised his batting average to an impressive .500 mark.

  • Brian Bannister is close to returning and will throw in a simulated game tomorrow.

    Brian Bannister is going to throw in a simulated game tomorrow, according to manager Willie Randolph.

    The rookie right-hander, who's on the DL with a strained right hamstring, has not pitched since April 26. He is eligible to come off the DL tomorrow but will not. Bannister has been rehabbing in Port St. Lucie.


    If he throws in a simulated game tomorrow and everything goes well, figure him on missing two more big league starts with an eye on returning after the Yankee series.

  • Steve Popper poses the question, are Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez just place-holders for Mike Pelfrey? No. Pelfrey simply is not ready. He needs at least May and June before it should even be considered and the entire year would not hurt. Can he do better than Lima Time! right now? Maybe, but that is certainly not saying much. In fact, EVERYONE has done better than Lima Time! as he the distinction of holding the record for worst single-season ERA in both the American and National Leagues. Impressive. Most impressive.

  • A-Rod talks back....

    Of course, the biggest knock against Rodriguez among fans is that he seemingly doesn't deliver in the clutch. He thinks the math is pretty simple.

    "I come through all the time," he said. "I don't think anyone can drive in 130 runs and not come through. I think that's impossible, mathematically."


    Yes, all the time. Especially in March though.

    Just for shits and giggles, let's look at out clutch he is.

    In 2006, he has a .270/.417/.514 line with runners in scoring position, a .235/.435/.412 line with runners on and two outs, and a .167/.333/.167 line in situations deemed close and late.

    From 2003 to 2005, he has a .273/.381/.482 line with runners in scoring position, a .270/.392/.495 line with runners on and two outs, and a .276/.392/.553 line in situations deemed close and late.

    So, in 2006 you are only reinforcing your Mr. March nickname. From 2003 to 2005, you have done well, but nothing spectacular.

    The verdict? Not clutch....except in months that start with an 'm' and end with an 'h'.

  • Some baseball players will be using pink bats in honor of Mother's day to raise awareness to fight against brest cancer.



    Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Cliff Floyd, Pedro Martinez, Xavier Nady and David Wright should have the lumber.

    "If I get some hits that day, I might use it for a while," said Wright, who frequently gets ribbing from teammates for wearing a pink Polo shirt.


    In other Mother's Day related news...

    A man who was denied a red nylon tote bag during a Mother's Day promotion at an Angels baseball game has filed a sex and age discrimination lawsuit against the team.

    The class action claim filed by Michael Cohn, a Los Angeles psychologist, alleges that thousands of males and fans under age 18 are entitled to $4,000 in damages each because they were treated unequally at last May's promotion. Women over 18 received the gifts.


    Shoot yourselves.

  • According to the Daily News, Heath Bell figures he will be traded at some point.

    Bell, who still figures he may be traded before the July 31 deadline, said he wasn't disgruntled at Norfolk, but acknowledged: "I didn't think I was going to get the call at all."

    Probably for the best.

  • No tear is not serious.

    After being examined by doctors Tuesday in New York City, Owens said he was diagnosed with a very small tear in his ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The injury is not believed to be serious, and Owens began playing catch before Wednesday's game. There is no timetable for his return.

    "It's just been frustrating," Owens said after Tuesday's game. "To be a competitive person and show up at the stadium every day and not be able to pitch, it's tough."


    Anytime something inside your body tears, consider it serious.

  • Tom Glavine is third on the active win list and Pedro Martinez checks in at number eight.
  • 41 Comments:

    Anonymous Benny Blanco from da Bronx said...

    New background? where is it? it looks the same.

    Jesus, Bannister gives up alot of hits. Living dangerously is gonna just blow up one day.
    And speaking of Bannister what better way to bring him back than have him face the Yankees? Go from pitching to the Nationals at RFK to the Yankees.

    AS far a A-Rod goes in the clutch, he may have a shitty SLG% but atleast the man gets on base. Look at that OBP! Instead of becoming the tying run, he lets the other guy hit a dinger to hit a walk off.

    If Michael Cohn wins, he is the man. And will become an inspiration for me. I will look for many ways to sue an organization for not giving me a girly purse...

    It's early but... Tom Glavine for Cy Young?

    12:02 PM

     
    Blogger suckit said...

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    12:13 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Oh benny...it was new...and it was glorious.

    If you want to see it, can set up another blog with this craptastic design. Let me know.

    They need to skip him against the Yankees if they like him. First start back? Walking the park and giving up a lot of hits? It will look like a football game quickly.

    Stop sticking up for A-Rod.

    I will look for many ways to sue an organization for not giving me a girly purse...

    Pure lunacy. PURE LUNACY!!!

    Tom is the front runner right now...does batting count when factoring that in? It should. Dude has been all around lights out. Truly ridiculous.

    12:15 PM

     
    Anonymous Benny Blanco from da Bronx said...

    Reading yesterday's comments, I will only make on suggestion, if you ever decide to make a new layout, whatever you do, DO NOT MAKE THE COLOR SCHEME BLUE&ORANGE!
    Those colors are not easy on the eyes.
    Just please don't do that.
    It hurts and it's kinda corny.

    12:34 PM

     
    Anonymous Kurt said...

    Mike, I don't think it's so much that we don't ~like~ the new blog (which is now the old, new blog), it's just that, to us, this green is The Metropolitans. It's like those new CoolFlo hemlets. It takes some getting used to, ya know? If we could, we'd all go back to the usual helmet, but we can't. So we will deal with it, and eventually love it.

    And Glavine is a freakin' monster. Why can't he be like 30 years old? Think he can pull a Julio Franco and go on 'til 50?

    12:35 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Benny,

    I know! I wanted to stear clear from blue and orange because it kind of takes away and looks bad to me.

    Check it out here...I made a test site so you can see it

    But I get the white thing. It looked too plain and hard to see the writing.

    Also IE burries the side bar at the bottom intead of side by side. You use firefox?

    Green = the metros? Like coolflo helmets??? That is not good!

    The real problem why I pulled it was because the sidebar was screwed up on IE. So it needed some work anyway. The old site (now the new one again because the new is now the old) has it's days numbered.

    12:49 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    The old/new site (aka current site) is much crisper than feels more organized to the eye than the new/old site (aka whitey mcgee). Maybe it's just because I do a lot of math and i like geometric shapes but i enjoy the boxiness of the old/new site to the CHAOS AND FREEDOM of the new site. my mind finds it easier to seperate content from links and misc junk when they are framed inside neat little geometric shapes.

    Maybe the screwed up sidebar has to do with absolute / relative positioning. Either way i never use IE so as long as it works in firefox you've made me happy.

    It was nice to see the mets pummel somebody, it gave my nerves a rest. Today's game should be interesting, Traschel hasn't exactly been cy young recently and with this ballpark things could turn pretty messy if he doesn't keep it under control.

    1:03 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I thought the other was crisper. The old new has too many colors and too many lttle breaks. The other was simply and two the point with less going on, hence crisper.

    cHAOS AND FREEDOM

    I guess that is a good way to put it. The new/old was the blogging equivalent of boxers and the old/new is like that old pair of tighty whities.

    Yeah, IE sucks the big one. I'm not sure why it didn't work, but I think it might have something to do with IE just sucking. It looked fine and dandy on firefox.

    Traxx does have a splitter that he throws 75% of the time and only has two homers, so that bodes well. I'm thinking of benching Gavin Floyd tonight since I excpect him to get pounding. I am stuck in a quandry with him.

    1:15 PM

     
    Anonymous Brian B said...

    That last post was from me.

    Pirate walks into a bar, bartender says, hey you know you got a steering wheel in your pants

    Pirate says

    YArrrr, and its drivin me nuts.

    1:15 PM

     
    Blogger Condor Schmitt said...

    I actually liked the old site Mike but the white one was cooler, yes I said it, COOLER!!!!

    I wold be worried that Pelfrey might be forced to throw too many innings if he were brought up. I saw a study that showed that throwing more than 10% more innings than the previous season was a one way ticket to PriorWoodville. Actually the study showed that Prior had thrown around 30% more innings than he had in the previous 2 seasons when he was called up.

    If we bring Pelfrey up, put him in the pen and Heliman in the rotation. It has worked with Popelbon in BoTown.



    Condor Schmitt AKA Scott

    1:26 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I like it.

    Not a joke, well it was, but from Mitch Hedberg. His jokes don't really read like jokes, but you have to check him out if you have heard him.

    If you're flammible and have legs, you are never blocking a fire exit.
    -Mitch Hedberg


    The guy is great... here are two others...he was great.

    I don't have a girlfriend. But I do know a woman who'd be mad at me for saying that.

    and..

    I like the fed ex guy because he's a drug dealer and he doesn't even know it.

    1:28 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Thanks man, I liked it better too, but it needs to get worked out a bit. It, or a better verision, will be back soon.

    Pelfrey should be the last resort...after they tried Heilman, after Soler, after, Main, after everyone. As much as we want to see him come up and kick ass, he probably won't. I do not see the big need for him at this point.

    1:30 PM

     
    Anonymous benny b said...

    I actually use Netscape for some reason. Don't ask why.
    THe new layout looks hot but... the white is no good.
    And the way the links were looked real shitty. The links have to be on the right...

    1:31 PM

     
    Blogger Condor Schmitt said...

    I want to see the Mets win 13-4 again tonight.


    Want to know how to stop a 9 game winning streak 13-4!!!!!!!

    1:32 PM

     
    Anonymous kurt said...

    Mike!! No! No. The CoolFlo was the NEW white site, the traditional helmets were this site. Geezus, I can't believe you almost mixed those up!

    1:54 PM

     
    Anonymous BENNY B BIATCH! said...

    Alot of people are getting thier own "facts" pages.
    FIrst Chuck Norris, then Vin Diesel, then Jack Bauer.
    About a month ago I saw a Stephen Drew one and now comes the Cole Hammels facts page.
    Cole Hammels Facts Page

    When Cole Hamels passes "Go", he collects $400.

    Kanye West almost needed to pay Cole Hamels royaties to release the "Jesus Walks" song, but Cole let it go, because he doesn't walk anyone so it couldn't really be about him.

    Cole Hamels was Julia Robert's body double in Pretty Woman. It was the scene where the hooker strikes out 27 consecutive batters during a wiffle ball contest and then beats up 11 rival hookers. The scene was cut from the final by the MPAA because it was too intense for the PG-13 audience.

    And finally...
    When Delmon Young heard Cole was promoted to triple-A, he went and got himself suspended.

    1:58 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Haha, netcape..

    You no likely the white either...is everyone racist or something?

    Links on they right....there was rationale for it on the left, but I'm not married to it.

    Ok, I'm not starting Floyd tonight. I'm asking for it if I do. He's getting sit so I have no conflict of interest and because the Mets are going to light him up.

    Sorry Kurt, but I still like the new/old site. To say it is like the Coolflo helmets cuts me deep. Really deep.

    That Cole Hamels page is trash. That Kanya West one is funny though.

    2:19 PM

     
    Anonymous Ben-izzle said...

    Gavin floyd is gonna get rocked tonight.

    And you also have to admit the Delmon Young one was pretty funny.

    2:22 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I admit nothing.

    2:58 PM

     
    Blogger Kenny said...

    Benny uses Netscape and has a mancrush on A-Rod. That's all I've got for the day.

    A win tonight would be huge - taking 2 of 3 from the red hot Phillies.

    3:42 PM

     
    Anonymous AE said...

    i am a big heath bell supporter, however, i just think he gets too much of the plate when he pitches in ny. i can't say that i know what he did/does in norfolk, but after watching him pitch yesterday, he was getting too much middle of the plate and not enough corners. i don't know maybe that's the problem. or maybe he's the quintessential quadruple-a pitcher...

    4:04 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Mike, in situations like these - i.e., rejection, getting fired, dumped, etc. - you have to take a philosophical view of the matter. Basically, EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG; you cannot let us damn (but often swell) commenters get in the way of your vision and paralyze you. You need to dump us man! Collectively. Or individually. You need to show us who's boss, that we're not going to hold you back. If you want white, you should have white. Fuck us! I mean, some of us are dumb enough to only comment on your site because the other ones are too anal to show the butts of Brazilian beach volleyballers or the Sufi body art girl (that you swore you'd repost and that you never did!). Plus, sitting around and watching the collected nose hairs of sixteen year old baseball fans who have no, real, idea about what they are talking about (and are probably still trying to figure out who Don Drysdale is, fuck that, who Floyd Bannister is). You see, by expanding our expectations, you actually set yourself up for a fall. That first sign of disapproval and the honeymoon is over baby! Welcome to gripe city. You did this to us, and now we feel that we'll never please you! You've got to lower our expectations, man, before it's too late!...

    4:06 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    By the way, the 16 yr old ain't on this site, or at least got an education first! You run some high quality shit man!

    4:09 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Blogger ate my last comment and it was long...

    Here's the gist....

    I thought that everyone else might me wrong, but kind of like how moms cannot see their kids are ugly because they are blinded by the love for the kid, I may have been blinded for the site.

    Also, there would be white if the sidebar was not buried on the bottom on IE. For some reason, it was not sitting next to the text and that simply will not work.

    If there was not problems in the IE browser, we'd have that new site. However, it has hicups. Truth be told I should have tested it in every browser, but did. Don't get me wrong, I do like it better, but it needs to set up right in all browsers because that would annoy me.

    While it's back in production, I'll see what else can be done to kind of seperate it off instead of having a big open expanse. It makes people afraid. It will be a work in progress.

    4:48 PM

     
    Anonymous Brian B said...

    "in situations like these - i.e., rejection, getting fired, dumped, etc. - you have to take a philosophical view of the matter. Basically, EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG; you cannot let us damn (but often swell) commenters get in the way of your vision and paralyze you."

    Just like the mets did with Victor Zambrano!

    It hurts me deep on the inside everytime kazmir pitches well.

    The rumors with livan, if true, do we still want this guy? Granted its early in the season, but Livan has been getting smacked around like a red headed step child. I liked the idea of acquiring him but he does cost $8 million a year (i think he has one more year after this?) So we'd be paying more than we would have payed penson for possibly around the same production.

    Mike... you shouldn't even have gavin floyd on your fantasy team... cmon now.

    5:29 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Just like the mets did with Victor Zambrano!

    Pure hilarity. That was great.

    How about this one...Kazmir is #3 for the AL Cy Young predictor!!!

    Brian, the league has 18 teams. You would be suprised who is on a fantasy team. I think Joe McEwing just got picked up. Hell, Victor Zambrano was on a team.

    5:40 PM

     
    Anonymous Brian B said...

    18 teams, i'll cut you some slack, but why not Mark "cy young" Hendrickson.

    I understand we don't want to call Pelfrey up because he could use a little more seasoning but why not Alay Soler? I realize he hasn't thrown to AAA yet but he's 26, has competed against intenational teams, and i'm willing to guess under intense pressure before. I'm not really looking forward to seeing jeremi gonzalez or Lima Time! again.

    Lets also hope reyes doesn't keep trying to hit them out, he always falls in love with the cheers from home runs. Set the table, a walk isn't as glamorous but generally when he gets on base with 0 outs we score.

    Does anybody else think that Jose Valentin is an awful choice for a bench player? This guy was a STRIKEOUT hitter when he was playing everyday, dont contact hitters generally make better pinch hitters? I'd rather see inning endy chavez out there than valentin... at least he has the speed to turn bad hits into base hits.

    5:50 PM

     
    Anonymous Brian B said...

    Holy crap has anybody else seen this article? A Switch Pitcher

    http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=87131

    6:16 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    In my defense on picking up Gavin Floyd, he came off a solid spring, had pitched in the bigs before, and was a top prospect. He seemed like a viable option. Another few back starts and I have to rethink my position.

    Soler should not be far away. Maybe two more starts minimum and four maximum if he aces the all. I do not see how he can be worse than Lima Time. In fact, I'm pretty sure that he would be.

    They like the fact Valentin could play infied and outfield. The guy has no business being in the bigs.

    8:22 PM

     
    Anonymous jake said...

    mike i told you (and the rain) so about floyd. now you fucked us all by not listening to me and jinxing us.

    10:12 PM

     
    Anonymous jake said...

    whoops, my paranthetical was premature. i meant the rain fucked us too.

    10:13 PM

     
    Anonymous Brian B said...

    This game might have been just a tad different if aaron rowand hadn't made that face first catch into the metal grate. At least he got his punishment from the powers that be for fucking with the mets.

    11:38 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Jake, this loss falls in my shoulders, but I was one amazing catch from being right about Floyd getting jacked up. I have to drop him from my team. The baseball gods have spoken.

    brian b, good to see you have compasion for Rowand trying to make sweet love with the railing. That was a seriously nice play though. Is it just me, or do teams seem to make an inordinate amount of ridiculous plays against the Mets?

    12:10 AM

     
    Anonymous Brian B said...

    Mike, I think the inordinate amount of good plays against the Mets might because we have a good team this year. i think players know they have to really step it up against the mets this year to pull out a win. they say often you play up to the level of your competition.

    That being said, rowands catch is a perfect example of why he is a millionare and i am not. I would not put myself in a position to let my face fornicate with a metal grate. here is another good question. Who had the bright idea to cut holes in the nice soft padding and replace it with painful hard metal grates? That seems like poor design.

    I hate that catch. It was actually the last thing i saw before i went out and I somehow knew it was going to cost us the game. My current fear is that our pitching staff is going to be Aaron Rowand and the brewers are going to be the metal grate. Jeremi is gonna have to bring his A game (if he has one).

    12:22 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    That being said, rowands catch is a perfect example of why he is a millionare and i am not. I would not put myself in a position to let my face fornicate with a metal grate.

    Classic. And why I'm not neither. I'd also retire as soon as I had enough cash to..the people that really rake it in succeed to succeed...not me baby.

    bad design for sure and as Gary said, that will be covered up next time they come around.

    I'm not sure he has one, but it could get ugly in the next two days.

    9:42 AM

     
    Blogger oSSyCoCoTaSo said...

    glad u dropped that format. it wasnt cool

    go back to the halo scan commenting. its not fun seeing ur name as mr met.

    10:59 AM

     
    Blogger superclosetnerd said...

    Not sure if I want to user blogger or not, i like the way your site looks and it is free. I want a blog for my site but just can't decide. My site if ya wanna look... fireplace chimney

    5:25 AM

     
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