A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

DIPS Revisited

I did this back in May to see who was overachieving and whose has not been as bad as their numbers suggest. To review what DIPS ERA is:

DIPS

* There are several possible outcomes for any pitched ball.
o Strikeout
o Walk/Hit Batsman
o Ball put into play resulting in Home Run
o Ball put into play resulting in an out
o Ball put into play resulting in a single, double or triple

* The pitcher has direct control over the first three, and there is a strong correlation between the players who lead these statistics from year to year. Nolan Ryan, Greg Maddux, Kerry Wood, Billy Wagner

* The last two are affected by the defense and can be summarized by Batting Average on Balls in Play (BAbip).

* Voros McCracken found that BAbip is only weakly tied to the pitcher, and there is very little consistency in who leads this statistic from year to year. It is primarily the result of defense and luck.

* You can compute a defense-independent ERA (dERA) based on the first three factors and this is a better predictor of next year's ERA than the current year's ERA is.


Here are how things looked back on May 11th:
                DIPS ERA  Actual ERA
Pedro Martinez 3.58 2.89
Steve Trachsel 3.87 4.96
Brian Bannister 4.99 2.89
Victor Zambrano 6.11 6.75
Tom Glavine 3.50 2.19
Aaron Heilman 2.49 1.96
Billy Wagner 4.65 2.39
Duaner Sanchez 2.60 0.41
Jorge Julio 3.84 4.28
Pedro Feliciano 2.34 0.93
Darren Oliver 2.23 3.86
Here are how things look today:
                DIPS ERA  Actual ERA
Pedro Martinez 3.65 3.45
Steve Trachsel 5.32 5.14
Tom Glavine 4.55 3.69
The Duque 4.54 4.80
John Maine 4.41 3.24
Mike Pelfrey 3.64 5.28
Billy Wagner 3.13 2.36
Heath Bell 3.91 3.20
Duaner Sanchez 3.70 2.70
Aaron Heilman 3.80 4.40
Pedro Feliciano 3.36 2.29
Darren Oliver 4.17 2.09
Pedro's DIPs ERA remained roughly the same but his real ERA regressed towards it which is to be expected over the course of the season. Even with his bad stretch, Pedro was still solid with a ridiculous BAA. His biggest problem was allowing the long ball a bit too much. When he makes a mistake these days, he gets punished. He has been fortunate enough to have most of those homeruns come with no one on base.

Steve Trachsel's numbers show us his 5.14 ERA is not a byproduct of him being unlucky. Though he thinks that he pitched well of late, he really has not. As someone pointed out in the comments section on Metsgeek yesterday, some guy on Metsblog pointed out that Kaz Ishii and Steve Trachsel have alarmingly similar numbers when Kaz was cut. Kaz had 19 starts, a 5.24 k/9, 1.08 k/bb, 5.14 ERA, and a .257 BAA. Trachsel has 20 starts, a 4.24 k/9.98 k/bb, 5.14 ERA, and a .291 BAA. It can be argued Trachsel is pitching worse. With Willie not doing six man rotation for the rest of the year and the Mets needing to get more out of their starters, I think something needs to be done.

Tom Glavine's DIPS era echoes Baseball Prospectus' numbers that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league in 2006. Back on July 7th, he was the luckiest pitcher in the league according to Baseball Prospectus. You can officially begin to worry about the Mets having even one very good pitcher in the rotation come playoff time. Glavine has looked really, really bad after a strong start and not in a small sample size. It would be nice if it could be attributed to some injury that rest would help, but it does not appear that way. He is missing his spots and when that happens, he gets whiplash.

As for the bullpen, they are still solid. Billy Wagner has pitched much better than he did earlier in the year and that is refreshing to see. Aaron has been pitched better than his numbers would indicate and though Darren is overachieving according to his DIPS ERA, he has been extremely solid and his high DIPS era is tied to the high number of homers he has given up. The Mets have a deep bullpen and it should continue to be a strength of this team.

I'm actually starting the think the rotation is in worse shape than I thought. The Mets need to rely heavily on two rookies to step up and though I do not think it is impossible, it is certainly improbable that both step up.

* * *

  • The Royals traded Elmer Dessens for Odalis Perez. The Dodgers are sending over $8 million to help cover the $16.5 million he is owed over the next two years.

  • There are still teams heavily interested in Alfonso Soriano. Even Bowden could not mess up getting some value for Soriano.

  • Looks like Bannister is attracting some interest.

    Mets righty Brian Bannister has his first rehab start today in St. Lucie and you can expect that to attract a lot of scouts. Bannister is a the kind of major-league-ready starter many teams are looking at, and those clubs are trying to get any read whatsoever on the righty, even off of a brief rehab start.

  • Ah, sexual harassment.

    After being accused of sexual harassment and fired by ESPN, former "Baseball Tonight" analyst Harold Reynolds said yesterday he doesn't think he did anything wrong and is still hoping to regain his job.

  • I think Paladin summed up last night's game in the comments last night.

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

    Oh, man! What a nightmare I just had.

    I dreamt that the lowest scoring team in baseball just scored 16 runs in two games against one of the "elite" teams in the NL... and they were still going in the second game!

    Wow. Good thing it was just a dream...

    ...or was it...


    No. No it wasn't.

    “I didn’t pitch, I didn’t hit, I didn’t field,” Glavine said. “That pretty much sums it up. It was one of those nights.”

    I don't care how good of a hitter any pitcher may be, when they go deep, it is insulting.

    “The weird thing is how much better I am lefty,” Zambrano said of his batting. “But I don’t like hitting with my right arm out.”

    It is even worse is when the pitcher hits a homerun from his weak side of the plate.

  • Jose Tabata, you are no Fernando Martinez.

    The Yankees' Jose Tabata was hit on the hand by a pitch last week and has been placed on the disabled list with a bruise on his wrist/thumb, according to a Charleston RiverDogs spokesman. The spokesman did not know which hand was injured. The 17-year-old had gone 1-for-21 after playing in the Futures Game and has not played in a week. He is hitting .303/.383/.427 in 314 at-bats for low Class A Charleston.

  • Pedro is ready to go on Friday.

    "I'm going to pitch Friday and that's about it," Martinez said. "If I wasn't (better), I wouldn't go."

  • The Mets have no intentions of moving Phil Humber to AA anytime soon.

    The Mets' plan for Philip Humber, who is bouncing back well from Tommy John elbow surgery, is to remain at St. Lucie for now. The 2004 first-round pick lowered his ERA to 2.73 Monday by limiting Sarasota to one run and twohits in seven innings in his sixth Florida State League start.

    With the state of the rotation, it behooves them to move him fast. Not that he will help this season, but it makes sense to keep moving guys that don't need much time closer if they are killing the league they are in anyway.

  • The buzz...

    According to officials with two interested teams, the Mets have been telling teams that Aaron Heilman could be included in a trade if the Mets got a good enough pitcher in return. What's not clear is what would constitute a "good enough pitcher." They've pressed the Cleveland Indians about Jake Westbrook, but the Indians don't seem to want to trade him. And there were rumors late Monday about a deal that would have sent Heilman to Seattle for Gil Meche, but it's likely they'd have to give up much more than Heilman to get Meche. Should they deal Heilman, who appeals to teams because of his experience as a starter, the Mets believe they could find a relief pitcher (Roberto Hernandez? LaTroy Hawkins) on the trade market to replace him.

  • Norfolk won 2-0 over Indianapolis as Lastings Milledge went 0 for 3 with a walk, Willie Collazo threw seven shut-out innings of three hit ball, and Ruben Gotay went deep for his first homer as a Met.

    Binghamton Beat New Hampshire 6-1 as Michel Abreu continues to rake and went 3 for 3 with three RBIs to raise his average to .346 and Carlos Gomez went 1 for 3 with an RBI and his 22nd stolen base on the season.

    Hagerstown beat Kannapolis 8-5 behind another solid outing by Jon Niese. Niese went 5.1 innings and gave up three hits, one run, and one walk while striking out six. He is 10-6 with a 3.41 ERA.


  • Back to his old tricks, Heyman wants the Mets to deal for Willis.

    But if I could find Minaya (who's presumably holed up in a room with a phone), I'd make this suggestion: offer Lastings Milledge, Aaron Heilman and Phil Humber to the Marlins for Dontrelle Willis.

    Luckily, the Mets done drink the same water as Heyman.

    When I ran my alternate plan by a Mets official who could be found Tuesday, he reacted with two words: "Too much.'' Another official was even more succinct: "No."

    Too much is an understatement.

  • 50 Comments:

    Anonymous Benny Blanco from da Bronx said...

    I'm actually starting the think the rotation is in worse shape than I thought. The Mets need to rely heavily on two rookies to step up and though I do not think it is impossible, it is certainly improbable that both step up.

    Besides the fact that its not likely both put up solid numbers its also not fair to put thsi much pressure on them during a penant run...

    Wih that Royals trade, the Royals have NOTHING to lose, I mean, who's ELMER Dessens? Seriously... I like the move for the Royals. No more Jimmy Gobble.

    Shiiiiiiiit, I'd trade Bannister...

    Sexual Harassment=bad.
    Getting busted for crack cocaine=good?
    Well, both are bad, but one of them is good enough to keep a job ;-)

    The Mets HAVE to take it easy on Humber. I think they should go slow with Humber even next year.

    I like Meche. I changed my mind on him since last month. He'll be good enough.

    12:26 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    At Metsblog, Matt had a convo with Buster Olney, and he makes it seem like its WAAAAAY too easy to get Zito.
    According to him, either Milledge or Heilman can have him, with a package needed if the deal centers around Heilman.
    I just find it way to hard to believe, its wayyy too good to be true.

    I know damn well I'd do Heilman, Gomez, and Carp for Zito. Quick and EASY

    12:44 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    They only thing they lose is money and they have a chance for Perez to pitch decent.

    Bannister would be traded in a second.

    Sexual Harassment is a mixed bag too. He could have said "Hey, nice shirt" and someone could have felt harrassed. Not saying that is the case and it was minor, but it is one of those things and just bad publicity. ESPN would not want to have that thrown around especially with their history. Now they have a zero tolerance rule whether something did or did not happen.

    Why go slow with Humber? Let him throw the same number of pitches he is throwing, but at AA. Don't get it. What is the big difference? Let him face better hitters and then take the winter off.

    Meche would be good enough.

    12:48 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    That does sound way to easy. Waaaay to easy. Unless he is in love with Heilman.

    12:49 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    First off, thank ya much fer the mad props! LOL! I feel like I've made it to the Majors. I'd like to thank my mom, dad, and all those who said I would never amount to anything! You have all inspired me to be the best I can be. And now... I've been quoted on The Metropolitans blog site!

    You like me, you REALLY, REALLY like me! ;o)

    Now regarding this Willis deal that John "Crackhead" Heyman proposes... is it REALLY that bad? I would trade Heilman, and Mill in a heartbeat for Willis. Your biggest problem is that offering Humber in the deal makes it over the top. But does including Humber (coming off of TJ surgery) really make this that bad a trade? I don't know. I'm not a big fan of Heyman. Afterall, this is the same guy who said yesterday on the Kay Show that acquiring Zito would make the Mets "instant World Series favorites".

    In what world does adding one arm to an awful rotation of guys who can't even work their way out of the fifth inning on any given day, make a team an instant favorite to win the WS?!?

    Idiot.

    But that being said, I would have to say I'm on the fence with this one. Think about it: you get Willis in a trade this season, then throw everything at Zito in the off season. Then it only costs you money to get Zito, so that next season you lead off your rotation with Willis and Zito! Come on, that's gota be woth Mill, Heilman, and Humber. Sure there is ABSOLUTELY no guarantee that the Mets can sign Zito in the off season, but ya gotta think that there is a very, very strong chance it can happen. Especially when he sees they would now have two top of the rotation guys (himself included) on a team that can field and hit with any team in Major League Baseball.

    I don't know, Mike. This one is tempting...

    12:53 PM

     
    Anonymous Robb said...

    Right now, there are only 3 players I think the Mets shouldn't move:

    Pelfey, Humber, and FM.

    Now i don't think they should move Milledge or the 17 year old pitcher either, but everyone else is replacable.

    Beane does apparently love Heilman and with what wickman and MacSuck went for to the Braves and WSox. Suddenly hielman and C. Gomez doesn't seem too outlandish for Zito.

    in terms of weakening the bullpen, heilman though not easily replaced can be replaced in house, with a combo of bell and Owens.

    If they want carp send them carp too. Milledge only goes for Willis and since willisis not going anywhere he ought to stay.

    12:59 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    n what world does adding one arm to an awful rotation of guys who can't even work their way out of the fifth inning on any given day, make a team an instant favorite to win the WS?!?

    In the world where the NL 3rd starters include Woody Williams, Jason Marquis, Eric Milton, Brandon Backe, and Doug Davis.
    Those elite Al 3rd starters are Ching Min Wang, Jake Westbrook, Freddy Garcia and his 5 ERA, Joe Blanton, and Ervin Santana.
    I mean seriously... c'mon now. Instant favorites.

    1:03 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Anyway to sweeten the pot for Westbrook. Is he totally off limits? Heilman, Diaz and some Single A for Westbrook. He's still young and could make a good #2 or 3 in the furture.

    Did Mark Prior HAVE to pick today of all days to remember how to pitch?

    - Nokes

    1:04 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    Benny, please. Pick your head up off the table, and put down the rolled up dollar bill for just one second. Now read carefully:

    The Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Detriot Tigers (that's right, I said the TIGERS), and maybe the Twins (two best pitchers in all of MLB), and Skanks (hate to say it pal, but this is true), would all beat the Mets in a 7-game series.

    With or without Zito, this club's top three starters are put to shame against any of those I mentioned above, and that INCLUDES the Skanks! Hate to say it, but Moose is damn solid this season. RJ aint the RJ of old, but he is and has been dealing some serious stuff now for the last couple of months. And Wang is a very, very good pitcher, who will only get better in the coming years. Any one of those three is a better option at this point than Zito, Pedro (with the hip/toe bullshit), and Glavine.

    If you honestly believe otherwise, you are in denial.

    1:12 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    The Mets offense stacks up with the best of them. It can compete with AL clubs as far as offense goes.

    Pitching? Alright lets review.
    Lets assume Zito goes to the Mets.
    Game 1, 2, and 3 starters go as follows:
    Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, and Barry Zito.

    Red Sox: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and ??? Tim Wakefield? David Wells? they have the balls to start Jon Lester?

    Tigers: Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Nate RObertson

    Twinkies: Johan, Liriano, Radke,

    Yankers: Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Ching MING WANG,

    White Sox: Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Garland.

    Twins are scary but... do they make it?

    Tigers are the most realistic team to be scared of. Solid pitching, solid bullpen, good hitting. Now, it is still Kenny Rogers up there who has consistnatly gotten rocked in the 2nd half the past few years, can he handle October?
    Can Bonderman and Justin Verlander handle it? Verlander will never have had pitched as many innings in his career than he will this season. Will he get tired?

    White Sox look scary but, its not. Lets ignore Buehrle's bad recent outings, lets assume he "rights" himself. Freddy Garcia and Garland have era's of 4.86 and 4.78 respectively.

    The Red Sox are a big question mark for game 3 and the Yankees are a joke. Jaret Wright, Ching Ming Wang, Sidney Ponson? c'mon.

    THe Met stack up with the best up them.
    WITH ZITO? solid pitching that can compete with ALL those teams.
    Offense that can kick ass take names and is NOT one-dimensional.
    Bullpen is probably 2nd best after the Tigers out of those teams.
    Defense although not great, still better than all but Red Sox.

    I wish I was being biased but I'm not, I'm keepin' it real. This a sick ass team and we don't realize it.

    1:25 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I think Humber tipped the scales being that he is not far from being useful and I like him more than Pelfrey. So, it seems like a lot. Not too mention three of those gusy will be in the bigs by the end of '07 taking on the Mets. You are giving them a few really good and close players. At least Gaby was far away.

    I don't want to start tossing Carp around as a throw in. I think the kid can play. I'd rather send them Bannister who's upside is Trachsel.

    Benny, exactly. The problem is that everyone points to other teams having weak rotations. However, Westbrook and Garica are better than what we have, the Red Sox and Tigers are better, and the White Sox are all around deeper...and who says the Mets are going with three man? Pedro needs his rest. They will most likely need a 4th starter at some point. If the Mets did get Zito, Zito might be their best pitcher. Their ace. Though I feel confident about Pedro coming back and kicking ass, it is no guarentee. If they can get him and not lose Milledge or Humber? That is a no-brainer. Just nuts that it would even be thought about. The Mets have zero chance of winning the WS with what they have. The AL is simply too strong. Right now, Glavine would get killed and he is supposed to be a co-ace.

    Nokes, Westbrook is in play, but I think you might be giving too much up, no? Heilman and Diaz should be enough, unless you are talking about a shitty single-A guy.

    F-Prior...he's going down.

    Any one of those three is a better option at this point than Zito, Pedro (with the hip/toe bullshit), and Glavine.

    I cannot agree that the Yankees front three are better than the Mets with Zito. Wang's K/9 is under 3.00!!!! UNDER!!!! I just puked!

    1:31 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Right now the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, and possibly the Twins are better than the Mets w/o Zito. Easy. With Zito, it helps the Mets out, but just puts them in their class in my opinion. The AL is really, really, really good.

    1:34 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I know is WAY too early to think about next year, but....

    Kerry Wood?

    The Cubs have like an $11 million option on him. no WAY they keep him for that price. They offer some sort of reduced price for him, but Wood turns him down thus becoming a free agent.

    Do the Mets pull a Yankee move and sign him to a two year deal a la Jon Lieber? Say, 'Look Kerry, dont even pick up a ball for one year. Just sit back, we'll pay you $2 million, and just get better. In '08, you come ready to picth.'

    Discuss.

    - Nokes

    1:40 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Alright fine, you want a 4th starter? El Duque... there.

    If it puts them in thier class then that's good enough for me.
    By then its whatever team is "hot".
    Like the Angles in '02 and the Marlins in '03, NOBODY was going to beat them.

    It's ALMOST a crap shoot at that point.

    1:41 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    Here's the bottom line:

    If the Mets get swept by the Cubs at home, Omar is gonna make a move. You can count on that. There is no way he is gonna sit around and watch his club get swept by one of the worst teams in baseball.

    So Benny, and all you other Zito lovers out there, pray for a sweep. Cause I got a feeling it will go down if they get humiliated at home by Chicago.

    1:47 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Wood for a low risk, low money move is fine with me. He might ultimately need to be a closer/set-up guy, so as long as hit money fits that bill and he doesn't get like $8 million to be injured or out of the rotation. The guy is filthy and he has a hot wife. Such a sahem.

    What's wrong with Kerry right now?

    With Zito it is more of a crap shoot. I'll agree if Glavine is pitching solid again, or else it's not. The Mets are simply not as good top to bottem as the top AL teams without Zito.

    Paladin, if Olney is right and Heilman plus prospects not named Milledge, Pelfrey, and Humber would work, I'm confused why it is not done right now.

    1:52 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    Without Zito I think the Mets MAKE it to the World Series. Once they get there? pfft... pray to NOT get swept.

    1:56 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    That's bullshit. Heilman and a few other low level prospects NOT named Milledge for Zito?!? Please. Beane is not a stupid man.

    Stubborn... but not stupid.

    If that actually happens, I will shit myself. Seriously. I would shit myself if Moneyball Beane gives up Zito for Heilman and a few scrubs to be named later.

    1:58 PM

     
    Anonymous Coop said...

    WAKE UP BATS!!!!!!!!!

    2:07 PM

     
    Anonymous Robb said...

    At some point Beane is going to make a decision, if it worth two draft picks to keep Zito or is it worth getting what he can in ML talent for him. Remember what Beane wants isn't ml ready talent, but ML talent that he can control cheaply. He also loves heilman in that ballpark. Honestly I would too.

    I believe Heilman and C. Gomez gets it done at the very last second of the deadline, unless somebody comes in and wows him. As moneyball demonstrates the A's don't really like 1st round picks.

    Other than the Tigers and White soxs, maybe the reds or the cardinals nobody is going to offer more than that for zito and the AL teams are looking for hitting. and the Cardinals seem to not be willing to take the rental if it costs them Reyes, but the Reds are a crap shoot, so are any NL west teams.

    2:10 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    Prior gave up no hits in 5 and 2/3 innings... they take him out after he issues a walk on his 113th pitch. Willie should be paying attention, this is a big game for the Mets. Maine has only given up 3 hits in a full 6 innings, but if he lets a man on base or even starts getting behind in the count in the 7th(something he really hasn't done all day), he needs to be pulled. I love the way Maine has pitched in his last two starts, but this is an important win in my eyes.

    2:10 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    its official... John Maine stays in the rotation. Solid outing.

    2:15 PM

     
    Anonymous brian b said...

    Why does everybody like Gil Meche so much? He seems to me like an inconsistant starter who loses focus too easily.

    2:15 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    I should get worried more often... even after a walk Maine stays in the game and strikes out the side. Hell of a game for the kid and he's still only thrown 92 pitches! He's not due up this inning, do you let him start the 8th? If he comes up I think you've got to let Floyd swing the bat and move Chavez to right.

    2:19 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    I'm not going to get all woozy over Maine. Not now. It's much too early. Still, ya gotta like what you see, especially the fact that he's got balls. This guy LOVEs to toss high heat, and I really, really love that. It's a pitch that not enough pitchers take advantage of, and can be very effective if used properly. Of course you have to have an effective fastball in order to pull it off, and Maine has that. I remember Gooden (make note that I am in NO WAY comparing Maine to Gooden) always getting hitters with that ridiculous rising heat. It's just so tempting to hitters, cause how can you possibly lay off a fat fastball? Trouble is, before they know it, it's rising out of the zone, and the batter is going down on strikes.

    Love it. and I love the fact that Maine chooses to use it, and use it so effectively.

    Funny how the bats fall asleep when they finally get a good pitching performance!

    2:20 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    That's bullshit. Heilman and a few other low level prospects NOT named Milledge for Zito?!? Please. Beane is not a stupid man.

    Listen, I thought that Maine, Heilman, and Gomez might be enought to get it done the other day. Buster (yes, he is generally wrong, but it the world of rumors, most are) said Heilman + prospects not named Milledge. There is something going on that leads him to believe it. Will it happen? Doubtful. But I cannot see him just making that up because it just doesn't sound right.

    Please don't shit yourself. It's not becoming of a grown man.

    Coop, that is always the way. Plate seven runs in a loss off a better pitcher and completely fall asleep when your guy is giving your a spectacular game.

    Robb, the known is better than two unknowns. That is exactly it.

    Joe, Willie has a problem knowing when to say when with pitchers. That being said, I'm obviously glad he threw Maine out for the seventh. But with two days off in the next five days, send Maine out for the 8th and cap him at 120? I guess it doesn't make sense, I just want to see him get the win.

    Mech has like a 3.83 ERA in the AL. Nuff said. Soon enough, the Mets will only have one guy with an ERA that good in their rotation with at least six games pitched. He is an upgrade and has a good arm.

    2:26 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    I like Meche because this year is his walk year. He has pitched really well this season in the AL and looks like one of those guys that's gonna take advantage of his free agentness.
    I'd take a guy like that.

    As long as he's not resigned in the off-season I'd like him.

    2:26 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    Like you said, Mike, why hasn't it goten done already? It's much too little for Zito, even if he is a free agent at the end of the season. How can Beane trade Zito for so little, when there has to be other teams out there who would love to have him in their rotation as well? There's gotta be some team out there who would give up more than Heilman + A-Ball minor leaguers for Zito.

    It sounds much too easy. But again, if it does go down like that, I'm sorry bro, but the pants are gonna get a big ole pile of shit in em. Don't worry though. I'll throw them out, and take a shower immediately afterwards!

    2:36 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    BTW, good game. Shame they couldn't get Maine a lead. Hell, he's the only pitcher who at this time is capable of actually holding a lead!

    2:38 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    I don't claim to be a great score keeper (Maine had 118 pitches) and he gets pulled. I like the move Willie! Enough of this trying to keep Stevie T's win streak alive, get Tommy G 200 wins, he's Pedro I can't take him out, let young pitchers finish what they started, kind-of-thinking. It's time to handel the pitching staff and our bullpen like a serious playoff team would. I understand we have a big lead, but if you're going to be by the book 98% of the time you can't be every players favorite manager too. They already like you Mr. Randolph... now get the job done!

    2:39 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Paladin...it goes like this.

    1) Beane is losing Zito at the end of the season.
    2) They are a good team in a bad division. If they make the playoffs, they will be leaving early unless they are buyers and they never are.
    3) He didn't offer Tejada and Giambi arb, but let us say he does offer Zito arb, he gets a late first round pick and sandwich pick. He can get known quantities now. Remember he traded Hudson and Mulder when they had a shot to be in it in 2005 because he needs to be realistic and try and build a perinial winner.
    4) Not many teams are willing to pony up a lot for a rent-a-player. Heilman and Gomez might be as good as it gets. He can take it or leave it. He can have two picks in the first round or Heilman or Gomez. Heilman is a first round and Gomez is good enough to have been a first rounder and one is ready now and the other will be ready soon.

    Beane is smart, but even he makes mistakes. He got Charles Johnson (I think that was his name), Dan Meyer, and Juan Cruz. He makes mistakes and the Heilman deal actually looks better than that and the Braves at least had an entire year rental for sure as the Mets have him for 12 starts.

    2:47 PM

     
    Anonymous brian b said...

    Meche has a 3.83 era in the AL yes, but he has routinely looked good then totally fallen apart in previous years. Also his home park is cavernous. He also seems to be a bit of a headcase, he has good stuff but I'm not sure if he's the kind of guy i'd want pitching in a playoff series.

    2:48 PM

     
    Anonymous brian b said...

    Wish i could make edits. his era is 4.19

    2:50 PM

     
    Anonymous brian b said...

    Wish i could make edits. his era is 4.19

    2:50 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Ah, well Meche may not be THE best idea, but he is better than Traxx. That I do know. Meche would present some type of an upgrade, but I guess I would not give up much for him and Heilman would certainly be out of the question, which was the deal floating around.

    3:03 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    Well, if that (or something like that) is the deal, than bring it on! I say bye-bye Heilman, hello Zito!

    Still don't see it happening though.

    Oh, by the way, nice bunting by Valentine. What the fuck was that about?!? Bad play. Waste of an out.

    3:07 PM

     
    Blogger Count Choculitis said...

    I've only skimmed the posts, but I am of the view that even an average AL pitcher will be better than Trachsel and possibly Glavine. That includes Meche, Sanchez, Vazquez etc, and you could get them for far less than Zito. Although the more the Mets' rotation reveals itself to either stink and/or be unreliable, a Zito trade gets more and more enticing.

    3:20 PM

     
    Blogger Paladin said...

    It's a good win, and a big win, considering what their competition was looking to accomplish.

    But these guys are waaaaay too happy about barely escaping getting swept by the laughing stock of the National League.

    3:43 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    WAY TO GO MUSTACHE MAN! (Mets had 40,000 for a 12:10 Wendesday game? Wow!)

    3:43 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    the mets scored runs and lost in two games against a team with hot bats. ramirez, jones and barrett are no slouches. they had a couple of days of bad pitching. while it is a cause for concern, getting this win was a big going into the braves series.

    3:47 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    The problem is that the Mets look horrible right now outside of Maine is that with the deadline hear, it could cause rash moves.

    The Cubs could have been playing hard. You never know. The D-Rays always play the Yankees hard. Like Keith said, with 40,000 plus at the games it gets you charged and Mets did face Prior and Zambrano.

    That being said, the Mets should have swept them.

    Joe, 40,000 not only on Wed, but during the fucking day! Impressive. Sure, 15,000 were probably Cubbies fans and they always get a lot of fans here, but whatever. They also have 47,000 yesterday.

    3:51 PM

     
    Blogger oSSyCoCoTaSo said...

    its not august.

    we gotta take this season one step at a time.

    why are we comparing our rotation to the AL rotations? there's alot of baseball between now and then.

    compare the mets rotation to the cards(carpenter, mulder, marquis), padres(peavy, young, chanho park), and the reds (milton, harang, arroyo). we stack up well.

    i cant wait for the deadline to pass. i dont think that anything will happen since everyone is asking for too much. most gms think cus the reds made a bad deal, they can act like they are chuck lamars!

    5:28 PM

     
    Anonymous Coop said...

    "Joe, 40,000 not only on Wed, but during the fucking day! Impressive."

    Mike - no joke, I was at Fenway last Wed, and it was SOLD OUT. Granted they only seat like 35K, but there was no room to move. It was awesome, except for the fact my boyfriend was threatened by some drunk Sawx fan for having a New Yawk accent. Then when he said the Yankees weren't worth his pee, he was alllll right :-)


    All I can say about today's game is....YEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!
    Hittin the GR tonight! Woo hoo!

    5:42 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Ossy, I hear you man, but the Mets are the cream of the crop in the East. The only point is that this team can make it the WS, but won't have a shot in hell if they don't improve. That means via trade or Maine continuing to be the ant-Traxx. Also, Glavine is pretty scary at this point. I don't buy that a team cannot look ahead. If you don't look ahead you might be caught with your pants down when you get there. Right now, the Mets pants are unbuttoned and half-way down the ass. I'd rather them not fall too much further.

    I'll agree that is will be quite. I don't see many blockbusters and that magical trade that Olney speaks of.

    The Red Sox have such demand for their tickets, they sell out every game. They built PacBell/SCB/At&t Park with the idea that they were going to build it small to create a demand. The Wilpon's have done that and they'll see consistent crowds of 40,000 just about every game when they are not sold out. The Mets just might sell out their first year at least like a few new parks do.

    I love how your boyfriend got in trouble for not wearing NY material, but just sounding like a New Yorker. You have to give them Boston fans some credit.

    The GR??? Is that Jose Valentin's favorite resturant perhaps?

    8:36 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    When talking about AL teams and comparing them with the mets, just remember, they only have to play 1 of them.
    THe guantlet of teams the MEts play come from the NL not the AL.
    Just one opponent will come from the American League in October.

    9:10 PM

     
    Anonymous Farva said...

    I dont see the problem with putting your finger in a girls ass. Its just a little sign of affection.

    2:00 AM

     
    Blogger Condor Schmitt said...

    If sexual harrassment is the problem then why isnt the guy who is dead to Mike still on ESPN? He was fucking the shit out of his secretary until his wifey caught him. Good enough for dead to Mike, good enough for Reynolds.

    I agree with you Farva, a finger in a girls ass is not sexual harrassment, its just a nice way of showing you like them.

    Heyman isnt an idiot hes just too over the top when he is reporting on NY teams. Look at how he has covered the superbowl bound Jets of the past few seasons. He is still much better than Perry, Kay or the other hacks!!!!

    Get Zito. Look at the rotation and how we have done over the last 20 games. Hitting is up but pitching is bad, we lose. Pitching is good but bats are quiet and we still take more than our share of games.

    PITCHING = WINNING

    PITCHING + HITTING = W.S. WINNING.

    2:24 AM

     
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