A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Sexy Time!

Yes, the Mets lost Chad Bradford. That is something I never thought would have happened. That does not necessarily mean the Mets bullpen will be bad, but they certainly will not be as deep in '07 as they were in '06, but you never know who is going to step up. Omar pulled off something special with the pen last year and there are a lot of arms in house that can help make that happen like Adkins, Vargas, and D. Williams. The bright side of things is that the Mets get a sandwich pick for the Orioles taking Bradford before December 1st since he is a type A free agent. The Orioles 1st round pick was protected from being stolen since they sucked sufficiently enough to have a top fifteen pick, but the Orioles also signed Danys Baez who is a higher type A free agent in terms of pecking order so the Orioles 2nd round pick goes to the Braves. I do believe the Mets add a 3rd rounder in this case, but who cares about 3rd rounders. Small consolation yes, but the Mets lost their 1st round pick when they signed Alou so this gives them a 1st rounder.

* * *

  • With the Yankees snagging the rights to Igawa for a staggering $26+ million amount and the Dodgers reportedly not interested in Barry with Wolf on board, who are the Mets fighting? In an off-season that is absolutely out of control, could Barry Zito actually not cash in? He would certainly make enough money to feed his family and would probably get $60 million at the minimum, but things are not working out the way Zito has planned. The Padres still have money to spend and the Cubbies are looming, but the Mets are the best fit.

  • Dayn Perry gets it.

    The best (and there's only one ...)

    1. Moises Alou, OF, Mets, one year, $8.5M

    In this overheated market — and when you're the deep-pocketed Mets — a one-year, $8.5-million pact is basically free. Alou has poor fielding range these days, and he's gimpy. However, he can still rake (.304 AVG/.371 OBP/.548 SLG over the last three seasons). The Mets badly need better production from the outfield corners, and they also badly need help against left-handed pitching. Alou betters them — by a lot — on both counts. This deal is further evidence that Omar Minaya has developed into one of the smartest GMs in the game today.


    Glub..glub..the Kool-Aid tastes good!

  • It is borderline comical how Glavine is waiting for an offer that is not coming.

  • Always good to hear nice things about Pedro's rehab.
  • 34 Comments:

    Anonymous DG said...

    And it's good to hear from you, too, buddy boy! Plus, when you post at midnight I'm almost guaranteed to post the first comment since no one in their right mind - assuming any of us are - is up right now.

    Real surprised about Bradford, but there is no way I would have given him three years with that back. I always find these decisions interesting - the chance to play on a contender for (very) good money versus the chance to play for a thoroughly mediocre team for even better money. I cannot blame Chad. A professional athlete has a limited time to assure his financial future. So, good luck watching from the rear guard, and tell JDuquette that we don't miss him a bit.

    The O's basically came into the offseason in the same position the Mets were in a few years ago. Their FA signings don't keep them from harvesting a decent prospect. We have Pelfrey because of that.

    Stupid money sure has a way of getting around these days, no? Igawa is just a middling acquisition and doesn't show anything compared to the Sox bidding on Matsuzaka. What concerns me actually is the the Mets bid $16 million on this guy who DWright said was purely average. I don't get the stupid money not applied to the salary cap is basically free money mindset.

    Further, in regards to Dayne Perry's article: I don't think that Carlos Lee's contract is a bad mistake as much as I think that it is potentially a bad mistake. If Lee keeps his weight down, he's still only 36 at the end of his contract, and his bat is exactly what the 'Stros need. They should get four decent years from him barring injuries and obesity.

    And the Eaton pickup is frankly something I wished the Mets would have pursued as he's always had the talent. I thought that was a decent signing.

    Perry should have considered putting El Duque's two year deal in the same category as the Alou signing as Omar has made more than solid moves so far at below market rates. That's the sign of a good exec.

    The Mets are set to dive in on Zito now, and I hope they get him. I trust Omar will also bring in a trusty bullpen arm and hopefully sign Mota as well (either a two year deal with a prorated first year or one with an option).

    6:46 AM

     
    Blogger Emad Mekhaeil said...

    Early mornin' baseball talk. Sure beats studying for an Advanced Physical Chemistry final.

    Hmm. Standridge, Padilla, and Batista all get their fair share of grounders. Yah think maybe this is a coincidence? Not sure, but I have a feeling Zito won't be getting the money he thinks he is... especially not from the Mets.

    Igawa's stuff looks fairly pedestrian to me. His delivery offers nothing in the way of deception. In fact, Igawa's tempo is considerably slower when throwing his off-speed stuff. It's a tell he'll have to fix. I've seen about 30 innings from Igawa and I'm not very impressed. Hitters tend to foul off lots of fastballs and striking out major league hitters with 90 MPH heaters with no movement up in the zone won't work. Hitters in the bigs will get even more lift on the ball than the NPB hitters do, so I expect a very nice HR spike. Maybe he does well in 2007. A 4.20 ERA perhaps. After that, he's toast, IMO.

    Not sure about you, Mike, but I was scared to death when I heard about the 25MM bid. I really don't like this guy, especially at the 3 year 40MM tag he's likely to command.

    Oh, and i'm going to miss watching Pujols turn into Neifi Perez late in games. You'll be missed, Chaddy.

    7:13 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Real surprised about Bradford, but there is no way I would have given him three years with that back.

    Agreed man. I never thought that anyone would go past the two years the Mets would have given them, but the Orioles want a sick bullpen and they have pretty sick bullpen.

    As for him leaving a contender, relievers lives are so unpredictable and there is such a high turnover rate, the idea of staying on one place for three years making some nice bucks was too hard to pass up.

    The Lee deal was not stupid, but the way it's structured is that when he might be his worst, he might be hamstringing his team. $18.5 a year for four years? It would be better if he could DH.

    The Igawa money is nuts. I guess being 27 and throwing low 90's as a lefty is all that is needed. $26 million just sounds nuts for him though.

    Eaton = Benson deal. Not horrible, but in all likliehood, he'll be a leage average starter. Frustrating at time and good at times. They paid for the future and not the past. I know he never topped 11 wins, but he IS better than that and that seems to be getting lost.

    Mota will be back and the Mets bullpen will still be good. Heilman, Wagner, Dirty, D. Williams, Adkins, Mota, Pedro #2...not a bad group.

    Sure beats studying for an Advanced Physical Chemistry final.

    What doesn't beat that?

    Not sure, but I have a feeling Zito won't be getting the money he thinks he is... especially not from the Mets.

    I have to agree man. The days of desperation are over. Omar will stay the course, not overpay and make a trade if necessary.

    Joe Smith = Chad. Give the guy until August or September. I think that played a factor here.

    Igawa with 4.20 ERA would be amazing. The thing is, they got him to 'fight' for the fifth spot. A lot of scratch just to right for a spot. But if they can sign him for $5 mill a year or so it's a risk worth taking for the Yankees. Not sure about other teams, but the Yankees? Sure.

    8:46 AM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    I can't believe the Mets even bid the $15 million or whatever they did for Igawa. Thank the guy in the sky that Steinbrenner had his expected responsive convulsion to the DMat bidding. I admittedly haven't seen Igawa, but my understanding is that in his early 20s he was a 92-94 guy, but that he had last velocity on his fastball and now he was more like an 88-90 guy. That is a huge difference. And let's just say DWright wasn't too impressed (Reyes is too nice to even say something semi-mean, so I take his comments with a grain of salt).

    I heart Joe Smith.

    Zito is still getting paid. It will be at least 5/70. Someone with deep pockets will at least scare the Mets into giving him that. Boras always gets a good payday. Maybe not the payday he envisioned at the beginning (see Beltran and 10 years for $200 million), but always a good haul.

    My prediction for minor league breakout pitcher of the year in 2007: John Holdzkom!!

    One can dream, right?

    9:08 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    And let's just say DWright wasn't too impressed (Reyes is too nice to even say something semi-mean, so I take his comments with a grain of salt).

    Dead on man. Wright was quite opinionated about the guy. The Yankees put up the same money they bid for Daisuke. Just nuts.

    Zito 5/$12 per? Sign me up. That's fair for him. I'd do that in a heartbeat and I'm sure that is Omar's limit. Afterall, they might be bidding against themselves.

    My prediction for minor league breakout pitcher of the year in 2007: John Holdzkom!!

    That's not fair. He has no where to go but up!

    9:17 AM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Besides mommy and daddy does Zito even have a family?

    Well DG, what makes Carlos Lee's signing "bad" is that he's just not the type of player that should be compensated the way he's getting paid. He's not elite. I meant compare the money, who would you rather have Beltran or Lee?

    I say the breakout star is Scott Schaefer or is his myspace still holding him down?

    9:51 AM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Zito is pimpin' it. Maybe a hot girlfriend outside his mommy and daddy.

    Lee's signing isn't bad per se. It could end up being good if he is still lumbering around and producing. The point I think everyone is making, he could immobile and need of a DH spot in three years while he's making $18.5 million. It oculd very well end up being an solid deal on both ends. I suspect he won't age well is all.

    Mr. Schafer looks solid so far and I don't think MySpace will hold him down. He could indeed 'break out'.

    10:29 AM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Benny, zero question, even the Astros would rather have Beltran. The money seems incredible - way more unbelievable then when the Mets signed CB (and were universally scorned for overpaying!). I think teams factor in the possibility of selling out the cost of the last years of a contract these days, so the Astros will be able to bring down their costs if he becomes exclusively a DH. That said, a bat as strong as Lee's, was clearly worth the overpayment for the Astros. I would be livid if the Mets had given him that much, however.

    The benchmark for all things Zito is Roy Oswalt's contract. 5/$70 just ain't going to do it even though Oswalt (who got $73) is clearly the better, more imposing pitcher. This is why teams try to resign their stars before they hit free agency, because the free market always, yes, always jacks the total cost. If the Mets get out with 5/$75, I'd consider them very lucky.

    Further, I don't buy the morning hubris (identifiable in the trade papers, key baseball sites, etc) that the Mets have no competition for Zito. Slimmer competition would maybe make this go quicker, but we're paying if we plan to win Z's services.

    My candidates for breakouts are Todd Privett and Sean McCraw. I'm assuming that Brandon Nall and Jon Niese are considered to have already made a name for themselves. But after all that, Niese is the one we should all pin our hopes to.

    Matt Durkin is my candidate for blast from the past. . . as a reliever.

    12:35 PM

     
    Anonymous benny blanco from da bronx said...

    Wait we were honostly giving out predictions for breakout pitchers?
    Hold on yo, lemme retract my Scott Schaefer prediction. I don't want to lose the credibility I don't have.

    Umm, i mean we already like them but Tobi Stoner and Jake Ruckle...solid! More people will know who they are.
    I woulda said Neise but, you already took him, most Met fans know who he is but i think the 2007 season will make others know who he is.

    12:52 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I think teams factor in the possibility of selling out the cost of the last years of a contract these days,

    Good point. No one contends that Lee was the best bat on the market for run production (exactly what the Astors needed) and I guess no one doubts his ability to simply drive in runs over the course of the contract, but he may not be able to move and may be Bond-like in the outfield at the end and almost unusable.

    I'd do 5/$13 per, but we are caught again in the entire "well, what's $5 million more and BANG! Up to $16 a year. I don't particularly think there are many teams willing to dish that much out on a pitcher these days and might want to overpay for Schimdt for a shorter contract.

    12:57 PM

     
    Anonymous DGDGDGDGDGDGDGDGDGDGDGDG said...

    That last point is a good one, Mike, and it would be interesting to see if overpaying for shorter contracts, particularly with pitchers, might become a trend (even though it hasn't happened yet). From a business standpoint, I suppose it makes sense with an older pitcher such as Schmidt who may not have more than three elite or quasi-elite years left (providing his arm doesn't fall off, ... yet again!), but the median post-arbitration eligilbe years player is almost always going to want to lock in the max money over the max years at that stage of his career. Which would be worth more. Three years of Zito at $18 million a year (don't laugh) or 6 at $90? You've still got to argue that the latter is more prudent from the player's standpoint.

    1:11 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    It is more prudent from a player's standpoint for 6/90. I'd agree, but in the case of Zito, Boras could try and cash in now and later since he is young enough. With the time valuation of money, he could get eighteen for the next three years (eclipsing the $15 a year over six years) and then sign a new contract at a value more than $15 year, he gambles, but wins bigger. Who knows...I'd take the sure thing cash especially being a pitcher, but Zito is durable.

    As for my breakout guy....Joe Smith. Starts at AA, hits AAA quickly...then the bigs. 1st non-starting pitcher call-up.

    1:21 PM

     
    Anonymous seattle steve said...

    RE: Glavine.. if the Braves have been stone walling him to see if we offer Arb., that is pathetic for both of them
    RE: the bullpen, in the end it will be in fine shape, Williams will take the place of Oliver, Sanchez, Heilman for the 7th and 8th, Omar will find the arms for the 5th and 6th.
    RE: players salaries, the signings of the left side this summer was a stroke of genius and as stated before Beltran now seems like a bargain.

    1:42 PM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    DG, good point regarding Lee. This is why the Astros gave Lee a full no-trade clause in the first 4 years and a limited no-trade clause in the last 2. If he becomes completely immobile at the end of the contract, they have an easier avenue by which to move him.

    Jake Ruckle has the fanciest windup this side of Dontrelle Willis. It looks like someone from the early 1900s. I love it.

    I get to give a serious breakout guy now... I would say Emmanuel Garcia, but Sickels ruined that and hyped him up too much. Can I say Junior Contreras? He will bash at Hagerstown next year. You heard it here first!

    We better offer Glavine arbitration. No handouts to the Braves or anymore secret handshakes with this guy. If they get him back, and at a discount to boot, we need to be compensated (even though they sucked just enough to get the #14 pick in the first round and have it be protected. I hate them.)

    2:08 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Mike, they'd certainly like you in Vegas! But from Zito's standpoint, I cannot see the logic of gambling on this his big payday. For two reasons: firstly, there is always the possible career ending/threatening injury that turns the player into a serviceable end of rotation starter or worse, a situational lefty (or obviously an ex-ballplayer); and secondly, there is always the risk that Zito loses his stuff and thus establishes himself as nothing better than a serviceable end of rotation starter, etc,... Risks and hometown discounts make a lot of sense at 34 but not at Zito's age. At Zito's age it's lock in longterm financial stability.

    On the other side of things, I can see a team like the Mets being able to see both angles here - overpaying short-term or locking in at a fixed rate for five, six years. Current salary progression has got to argue that Zito at $15 million a year will longterm seem like a reasonable but not cheap deal if - and this is the big tomato! - IF Zito continues to pitch at the same level he is pitching right now. That's obviously the great unknown. And while the Mets may be able to crawl out from under the contract in later years by paying part of his contract, you're still committing a hell of a lot of money on the unnatural mechanical act that we call pitching.

    And yet there is a part of this equation that I think justifies the risk regardless of whether you think Zito is really the top shelf pitcher his agent would like to package him as (and yes in this market that is unfortunately what he looks like): the Mets own young pitching prospects. Frankly, the Mets can likely afford the committment of so much money over six years due to the presence of Pelfrey & Humber, who both are years away from being eligible for free agency and who, additionally, will not be eligible until after both Pedro's and Glavine's (assuming he resigns) contracts are off the books. Frankly, the fact that the Mets are currently looking at several young pitchers (expanding this to cover some combination of Bannister, Maine & OPerez) at affordable prices makes a strong argument towards paying now and sweating it later.

    2:24 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    Agree that we should offer arb to Glavine, but I bet you we won't as that may be seen as obstructing Glavine from going home if he wants, and the Mets have been very respectful/careful in their handling of Glav's free agency, ... which is why in the end I think they'll get him back.

    Mike, Smith is a good choice, but I kind of thought Benny's now abandoned idea was for the guy we haven't already heard much about. Care to play?

    2:53 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    I don't think this is realistic, but would something like this be too crazy... Sign and trade Glavine to the braves for Hudson and eat half the contract. We'd be paying 12 million for Hudson and they would have Glavine for 6 million. We get a younger pitcher back with "the jacket" and hopefully Zito...and the Braves and Glavine get the 300 win and all that jazz, plus i think they would keep their draft pick, right? How realistic is something like this and does anyone else think it's a good deal?

    2:54 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Steve, I do not think it matters in terms of Glavine since his option was turned down. I do not think he could be offered arb or would cost a draft pick if signed before Dec 1st. If someone can let me know if I'm wrong, that would be helpful.

    The bullpen will be OK which is why Omar did not panic. Don't forget about Mota in the 2nd half as well.

    I need to se this Ruckle fellow's windup.

    Danny, I'm on board with the freakishly huge Contreras breaking out. Again with Glavine though, I do not think we can offer him arb after turning down his contract.

    DG, I did say it was a gamble and my theory is very unlikely. I agree with you, but in theory, they could roll the dice and if anyone would, it would Boras. He could do something like he did with Drew with some out clause. What I proposed is pretty much what Drew did except he got to choose to opt out and the Dodgers could say nothing. What a crappy deal.

    Current salary progression has got to argue that Zito at $15 million a year will longterm seem like a reasonable but not cheap deal if - and this is the big tomato! - IF Zito continues to pitch at the same level he is pitching right now

    Agreed. $15 million in three years for a guy pitching like the Zito of the last three (top 10 ERA, top 2 or 3 BAA...) is good. Very good.

    Frankly, the Mets can likely afford the committment of so much money over six years due to the presence of Pelfrey & Humber, who both are years away from being eligible for free agency and who, additionally, will not be eligible until after both Pedro's and Glavine's (assuming he resigns) contracts are off the books.

    Precisely.

    2:56 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Though you can technically sign and trade if you get the player to agree, I'm sure it wouldn't fly. A lot of teams would complain and the Braves don't get helped because they can get Glavine for free. They can trade him if they wanted to presumably and get nothign back on a team willing to take a shot.

    3:01 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Though you can technically sign and trade if you get the player to agree, I'm sure it wouldn't fly. A lot of teams would complain and the Braves don't get helped because they can get Glavine for free. They can trade him if they wanted to presumably and get nothign back on a team willing to take a shot.

    3:03 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Though you can technically sign and trade if you get the player to agree, I'm sure it wouldn't fly. A lot of teams would complain and the Braves don't get helped because they can get Glavine for free. They can trade him if they wanted to presumably and get nothign back on a team willing to take a shot.

    3:04 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    According to Adam Rubin, the Mets can offer arbitration to Glavine.

    3:19 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Though you can technically sign and trade if you get the player to agree, I'm sure it wouldn't fly. A lot of teams would complain and the Braves don't get helped because they can get Glavine for free. They can trade him if they wanted to presumably and get nothign back on a team willing to take a shot.

    Good stuff DG...but I doubt they would. They have that entire gentlemen thing going.

    3:22 PM

     
    Anonymous Danny said...

    The Mets want Glavine back, but so does Atlanta.

    Glavine, another Type A free agent, will find out whether the Mets will offer arbitration and the other team pursuing the veteran lefty, the Braves, will know whether bringing Glavine back to Atlanta will cost the club a draft choice next summer. If the Mets offer salary arbitration and Glavine accepts, it means the pitcher will return to New York for 2007 and the Braves will have to look elsewhere for that starter they are seeking.


    Mike, this is from mlb.com. The Mets essentially bought Glavine's free agency. But I think they can still offer him arbitration. I don't know for sure though.

    3:24 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    Well if he leaves and the Mets get a decent 2nd rounder after picking up a third rounder and a comp pick, that ain't bad.

    4:19 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    that's why i like my sign and trade proposal. the braves would save their draft pick, get glavine for 6 million, and not owe hudson 12 million in 08 and 09. isn't it rumored they want to move hudson before signing glavine? glavine would also agree, because he gets a big payday and gets to go back to atlanta.

    4:35 PM

     
    Anonymous joe said...

    i guess it comes down to do they value the draftpick more than what they could get back for hudson otherwise? or perhaps we could throw someone else in the deal...

    4:43 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    I cannot imagine the Mets offer arbitration without a lengthy conversation with Glavine first. While it makes sense to do it from the Mets standpoint, it effectively interjects the Mets into a position of making any return to Atlanta more difficult if not impossible. That's what they should be doing of course, that is, if they really want him back, but I don't think the Mets would have gone this far along the process of giving him the choice if they were going to then make his decision more difficult. I don't know, in some way, their letting TG make his decision without pulling any strings has got to, at least, make other players respect the organisation for being honest, which makes them more of a desirable destination for all but the truly mercenary. That's the moral high ground I suppose. I would be shocked if the team offers arbitration.

    4:53 PM

     
    Anonymous DG said...

    So, are these just words?

    The Mets, meanwhile, have been candid in their desire for his return and so patient in waiting for Glavine to decide that Clifton was moved to say: "They're showing an incredible amount of class, because at the end of the day, they have allowed him to do everything he asked to, which was to go home, to get back into the normal family mode and give him an opportunity to really think this thing through. I think it's working to their advantage, to be honest with you." (from mlb.com)

    5:03 PM

     
    Blogger mr. met said...

    I wonder if that can actually happen. There are few instances that it works out in favor of the free agent and teams involved to do a sign and trade. I've never actually seen this done in baseball though. It's mostly done in sports with salary caps and stuff where salaries count against the cap and crazy stuff like that.

    I agree with DG...No way the Mets offer it with their little deal in place.

    I think he'll be back simply because Atlanta doesn't truly want him.

    5:54 PM

     
    Anonymous benny said...

    woulnd't it be considered "collusion" though? I dunno whatever...

    6:42 PM

     
    Anonymous Anonymous said...

    I see Texas met with Boras and Zito. Forgot about 5/$75MM...you're looking at 7/$95-100MM now that the Rangers are involved. Plus, you have to figure that Texas does not have a state income tax...the Mets are going to have to ante up now. It's not a slam dunk as everyone thinks it will be.

    -Bada

    9:29 PM

     
    Anonymous Scott from Peekskill said...

    Zito ain't goin to no Rangers. Yes it is a double negative and poor grammer all round but it is factually correct. Even the greediest FA's know that Arlington is where pitchers go to die. There is no Rick out there either...but there is no Rick here right now either since his contract just ran out.

    Omar better get Rick back ASAP.

    10:54 PM

     
    Anonymous MikeinSpaininLA said...

    Zito goes where Boras tells him to go. Period.

    11:48 PM

     

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