Rotation Issues?
We all know the concerns that surround the Mets '07 rotation and we all know the people voicing their concerns are for the most part outside of the Mets fan base.
Buster's take...
The Mets are adding their own Sosa. The Mets' gamble that their rotation is good enough will be fascinating, as it plays out; the team is gambling that with good instruction, they can save their pitching. Personally, I think the rest of the team is too good for the Mets to have handled their starting pitching in this manner. They should have gotten somebody.
It was not for lack of trying. Omar tried, tried, and tried again. After all that, he tried some more. However, it just did not work out and Bill Madden agrees that Omar was smart to stay back if he was unable to reel in a difference maker.
Because of his inability to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter or upgrade substantially at second base, it might be concluded that Minaya has had a bad winter. But at the same time, would throwing crazy money at Zito or - even worse - at mediocrity such as Vicente Padilla, Gil Meche, Miguel Batista or Adam Eaton be considered as a good winter? To that we would say only, "Come see us in September."
Preach on brother Bill.
While a prospective Mets rotation of Glavine, El Duque, John Maine, Oliver Perez and either lefty Dave Williams or rookie Philip Humber might seem a tad underwhelming, at least until Pedro Martinez hopefully rejoins it in June, look around the rest of the NL East and you'll find only the Florida Marlins can claim a rotation five-deep in quality. And other than Dontrelle Willis, their arms are still too inexperienced to be considered real deals.
What's funny to me is how the majority of Marlin nation, Philly nation, and Brave nation (have not heard National nation weigh in on this one yet) are so confident that the Mets rotation will be there downfall despite them having the most well rounded team even when you factor in the Mets rotation needs. It's like me giving a lecture to someone about overindulging while I'm snorting coke of a hookers boob. It just does not make sense.
Here is a fun fact that is brought us by AE. Last year's Mets team gave 15 starts to Lima Time, Geremi Gonzalez, and Alay Soler (approximately 10% of the team's schedule). Their combined ERA in those 15 starts was 7.21. Their combined WHIP was 1.75. Throw on top of that Tom Glavine's blood clot, Pedro Martinez's arm falling off and his 4.48 ERA, Trachsel making thirty starts, and AE forgetting to mention that Victor Zambrano made five starts with a 6.75 ERA and the Mets still managed to squeeze out 97 wins.
What am I getting at? Even if Pedro does not return, the Mets will be OK. The Mets starting five will not set the world on fire, but they will be more than adequate and I still think Pedro will be a huge factor for the Mets in the second half of '07. A rotation down the stretch with Glavine, The Duque, Pedro, Maine, and whomever steps up is all this Met team needs to get where they want to go. Could things go horrible wrong? Yeah, but that could be said about 90% of the teams out there that are relying on one pitcher like the Cubs and Zambrano, the Twins and Santana, the Cardinals and Carpenter, the Brewers on Sheets, the Braves on Smoltz, etc...However, I still feel like the Mets have enough wildcard arms to persevere.
In Rob Neyer's chat, he demonstrated that he still has faith in the good guys pulling through.
Jason (NY): Right now - predicitions for the 8 playoff spots. (I know, subject to change)
SportsNation Rob Neyer: I haven't looked at a single projection yet, but here goes anyway: Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, and Pick 'em.
Keep your head up and do not believe the hype. The Mets still have valuable chips in their pocket should it all hit the fan and they need to go out and acquire and arm. In all likelihood, that will not be necessary and I would be more than happy to hit the playoffs with the same rotation the Mets took last year with The Duque substituted with Trachsel. My confidence level about this 2007 is pretty high right now and I do not have many complaints. Is this taem perfect? No, but no team is.
Jack (Toronto): Other than the obvious HoFers Clemens, Maddux and Glavine (and Bonds I guess), could we be looking at a lost generation of good quality candidates for the Hall? ARod, Piazza maybe, Jeter if he gets 3K hits, Santana if he stays healthy and keeps up this pace and Pujols (health again), who else? I don't see Johnson, Schilling, Smoltz or even Pedro having the numbers.
SportsNation Rob Neyer: Which Johnson? Randy? He's been a lock for years, and so is Pedro Martinez. Other currently active Hall of Famers: Rivera, Hoffman, maybe Wagner, Helton, Manny Ramirez, probably Frank Thomas, Vladimir Guerrero, Ken Griffey, probably Sheffield, maybe Chipper Jones, Biggio, Ivan Rodriguez . . . we've got no shortage of excellent candidates.
Not a bad group of players at all with some of the best of all time certainly in that mix.
Kevin (NYC): WHOA...please clairfy, Piazza is a lock fo the HOF, correct?
SportsNation Rob Neyer: Of course. As is Cap'n Jetes.
Revel in it's beauty and soak in the goodness.
Jake, did your back hold out long enough to get some surfing in?
The Mets continue to believe in Rubén Sierra's ability to help shape young players and are negotiating a minor league contract with the 41-year-old slugger. The Mets have no immediate plans for Sierra to make the major league team out of spring training, but he will be in their system if the need arises for a veteran hitter.
He will not be a integral member of this team and if for some reason he is, we'll have many more things to worry about than Ruben Sierra being on the team.
--Tony Gwynn, on steroids.
Hmmm...
"I can tell you that I didn't know. There are a few guys who come back from the offseason bigger, but you don't really know for sure what's happening. I didn't…A smarter person can look around and have suspicions."
--Cal Ripken Jr., on the use of performance enhancing drugs during his time in the game.
Double hmmm...
"Besides, he's fat now. Where would we play him? He would probably go home in two months."
--unnamed player personnel official with the Yokohama Bay Stars, on Sammy Sosa
Yikes...I guess leaving the game gracefully, or as gracefully as Sosa would have been able too, is a foreign notion to Sammy.
But the highlight of his mailbag for me is when T.R. gets a bit defensive...
I have been a Rangers fan for many years, but this team has the poorest potential for any I've seen. Only two quality starting pitchers, no outfield that can hit .300 and a backup catcher. I think it may be time to go back to my Cardinals.
-- Bill F., Williston, S.D.
Understood. Let us all know how Kip Wells fares as the Cardinals' No. 2 starter.
Ziiiinnng!
posted by michael o. at 11:18 PM
30 Comments:
Have to agree with Madden when it comes to mortgaging the future for a semblance of surety in '07. Should have gotten "somebody?" Actually all Omar has done is gotten somebodies. I'm likely in a serious minority but the only two pitchers I would have liked out of the oft injured second tier were Eaton and Mulder (lest my tired brain has forgotten any of the slew of question marks that have been out there). Pelf & Humb assure us of an affordable future starting five, and if any trend has announced itself this winter, it is that high level pitching prospects are now worth much much more than than middle tier rotation cogs. I'd rather risk failure though I think failure is unlikely.
And Mike, the Phils have a decent rotation. Not as much upside as the Fish but good enough to make the Mets sweat a little this season.
Sierra's importance = Lasting Milledge. The guy is being imported more for positive role model than anything else. (I'm sure Carlos Gomez will benefit as well.) There are valid parallels between Siera's early attitude and Milledge's current attitude. I'm still high on the Ledge.
The Brew crew in 2007? Why not given their division? I haven't thought about the central as of yet, but I still like the Padres best out west. Wild card comes down to Pads, Phils and Dud-gers. Who do I think will win the NL East? Uhhh,....
5:06 AM
my back was fine in senegal, it was my guts that got wrenched out. but yeah, after i plugged my system with AD pill cocktail i did get some waves. that country is a trip. whores everywhere.
i think i mentioned this yesterday, but don't miss the Mets 2006 Tribute Video on youtube.
the mets are going to stomp every mtherfcker between here and october. remember last year at this time when everyone thought the braves would win again? we've come a long way and we're only getting stronger. the only questions are matters of details...ok pitching is a big detail but everything is gonna be fine. i'm with coop, openening day already por favor.
8:59 AM
I know selling papers. And Bill Madden isn't sellings papers with his reason and logic. I need controversy and confrontation! Fire that man!
What's funny to me is how the majority of Marlin nation, Philly nation, and Brave nation (have not heard National nation weigh in on this one yet) are so confident that the Mets rotation will be there downfall despite them having the most well rounded team even when you factor in the Mets rotation needs. It's like me giving a lecture to someone about overindulging while I'm snorting coke of a hookers boob. It just does not make sense.
If snorting coke off a hooker's boob is wrong, I don't wanna be right. The Nationals have one major league pitcher signed, and wait, he's not actually signed (Patterson, who's tied up in an arbitration battle). They will have the worst rotation in baseball. They are getting beat up on this year severely. I project the Mets to go 17-2 against these jokers. Nook Logan will be their starting CF *cue the laugh track*. I love their prospect Esmailyn Gonzalez though.
Baseball had steroids? I'm with Cal... who knew? (Gwynn did play with Caminitti, so it was definitely all up in his face.) If I am a younger player on the juice, I am probably hiding it from All-American icon Cal Ripken, right? I don't know, I want to give Cal the benefit of the doubt.
9:32 AM
DG, many would argue that Omar got more nobodies and somebodies, but it is all a matter of semantics at this point.
I agree on Mulder, but not sure I’d go very high on Eaton. Two years maybe and that certainly would not have gotten it done.
I never said the Phillies do not have a decent rotation, but they still have plenty of questions…the same that is being said of Glavine applies to Moyer, Hamels still needs to prove he can keep it up as does Maine, Freddy Garcia is pretty solid bet to put up a 4.00 – 4.30 ERA, is Myers ever going to live up to his potential?, and Lieber is solid if nothing else. After that, it’s pretty thin for them. Sorry….decent rotation with ace potential in Hamels but nothing that is head and shoulders above the Mets.
Emad is back and in high spirits. How could you not be after a trip to Aruba.
Jake, the Braves fans still think they’ll win. They are very delusional. This is a two team race with the Marlins being a tough team and one that will not be fun to play. Like Neyer said, the Marlins are due to take a step back and some guys played over their heads. Like the Mets had some fluky performances, so did the Marlins. Young pitcher usually has more hiccups and I expect more this year.
Danny, that would explain why they’ve been quiet so far this off-season. They lost Soriano and their not-so-intelligent GM did not trade him for valuable pieces and they have NO rotation. None at all, but their top ten looks pretty good. Time to tear it down and trade whatever commodities they still have.
If I am a younger player on the juice, I am probably hiding it from All-American icon Cal Ripken, right?
That would be a good argument if it was only younger players and not stars.
11:12 AM
Omar definitely did well in NOT giving out any crippling contracts this year...but that still doesn't change the face that our rotation is iffy.
Ken Rosenthal mentioned that the Indians might wanna deal Westbrook or Sabithia because they fear signing them to long-term deals. I don't know when he becomes a free-agent and whether or not we could sign him long term, but Sabithia is a cy young waiting to happen in the national league. The guy really came into his own last year and dominated hitters. He throws 96 mph. He's lefty. He's young. He's intimidating. And his perceived value is definitely lower than his actual value. He's one guy (assuming we could lock him up) I'd deal two top prospects for.
11:22 AM
I’d certainly be listening if Sabathia was on the market and he would certainly be worth two top prospects. However, the Indians underachieved in ’06 and I expect them to be gunning for the division in ’07. They saw how the Tigers and Twins landed in the playoffs and the Tigers went to the World Series. They could look at it like they have a legitimate chance and they do, but they’ll need Sabathia. Their rotation wit a full year of Sowers is very solid they would have to fall out to deal Sabathia at this point. They are not that small market of a team and have been known to dish out some dollars. I hardly think they are dire straights and are more apt to deal Westbrook, who I would take as well, but not at the cost of two top prospects.
11:42 AM
Our starting pitching may have some questions but every staff has questions, I personally feel comfortable with what we have and if what we have stays healthy we will win the EAST, and then we can worry about the playoffs, remember it was the bats that failed us not the overall pitching staff against the CARDS.
12:02 PM
Our starting pitching may have some questions but every staff has questions, I personally feel comfortable with what we have and if what we have stays healthy we will win the EAST, and then we can worry about the playoffs, remember it was the bats that failed us not the overall pitching staff against the CARDS.
12:02 PM
If Sabathia's name is thrown around, why not just ask for Santana as well. All the praise the Yankees get for making deals to get rid of Johnson and Sheffield means they get younger players back to either a) develop (heheheh) or b) trade off for a proven player.
Well, beat them to the bunch. As much as I hate to admit it and to see them go: Humber, Pelfry and Milledge for Johan Santana.
Milledge can replace Torii Hunter in CF when he's gone, and although no one can ever replace Santana ona team, Humber and Pelfrey arent too bad a start. The Twins will have to shell out some insane number to get him to stay in Minnesota, so for once let the Mets beat everyone to the punch.
And again, I hate to see those kids go. Really, I do....but it's freekin' Johan Santana!!
- Nokes
12:14 PM
Agree the Phils' staff has question, but I do think they are decent. Hamels has yet to have a sustained period without injuries (a junior el duque in training?) and there is as much that can go right with him as wrong though he grades out pretty well. Wife-beater Myers - who probably wasn't emulating Darryl Strawb since he didn't beat his wife after a playoff loss - has a lot of potential, but somehow I think it may all come together once he's liberated from Philly.
CC & Westbrook ain't going anywhere this year but may well be traded next offseason. The Indians should be very good this year, which makes for a good division race.
The Fish are very very good candidates for a dropback after having so many rookies achieve last year. They are a wild card but more likely a year or two away, especially if the team gets a stadium and Jeff Loria doubles the payroll.
12:46 PM
Steve, we are in 100% agreement and I’m excited about seeing Ollie for 30+ starts. Santana is on contract through ’08. They guy isn’t going anywhere until mid ’08 if he’s going to get moved. I would think about Humber, Pelfrey, and Milledge for him for sure, but it would hurt….untill I see Santana rip it up and put up a sub 2.00 ERA in the NL. The only problem is payroll flexibility at that point since they gave up two very good ML ready arms with no decent pitchers to replace him. While Santana would cost them $20+ a year and you need payroll flexibility with a player like that. We are not the Yankees, who could go back to $200,000,000 if they wanted too. I guess it would depend on how far along Mulvey, Vargas, Neise, and Guerra come.
1:26 PM
i'm not buying marlins slip theory. if a team of youngsters plays well one year, to me the logical expectation is for them to play better the next. that said, mets will stomp them.
1:35 PM
That would be a good argument if it was only younger players and not stars.
Shhh! Let me live in my fantasy land. Palmeiro doesn't even speak English, IIRC?
Some of the Marlins are sure to regress now that a more detailed book is out on them. I am looking at Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, off the top of my head. Oh wait, Nolasco already sucked. Nevermind. Who's closing for the Marlins again?
2:02 PM
does anybody else find Neyer irritating? this guy's reputation belies the stupidities he spouts in every column and chat. just read his most recent and Mr. Sample Size has Dice K all figured out based entirely on what Nomo did. That's right, on one player, he projects with the hubris of W.
jake
2:15 PM
I actually like what Omar is doing. If your not going to drastically improve the team why bother paying top dollar for mediocre talents?
If your not goingt o get an impact player you might as well stock pile. Those guys would produce at equal production for a fraction of the cost and less commitment.
Am i the only one who doesn't consider the Marlins competition? I mean look at thier record last year. They didn't add anybody, so basically they're banking on ALL thier players to improve. That's just.. rare. Its not often 25 players all improve from thier previous year. I only consider the Braves and the Phillies as competition.
All I'm gonna say about Endy Chavez is that his catch is my wallpaper.
How come every year, when Omar makes those minor league deals for guys like Offerman and Sierra people always bitch? People from a certain website always whine, bitch, and complain, about players that won't have roles on the team. Freakin' Met fans just need something to be sad/mad about.
I wonder what Cal thinks of Brady Anderson, haha, 1 Hit Wonder.
The unnamed player personnel official with the Yokohama Bay Stars is just mad and jealous that Slammin' Sammy won't be playing for his team. Hater.
I like Victor Diaz. I still do. But damn, he gives of that impression that he doesn't care. He gives off that lazy vibe. Although, I don't think its true, that's bad. He coulda been good with the right team and MAYBE a better attitude.
Rob Neyer is a cocky asshole. He's a prick.
2:49 PM
Jake, not 100% true especially when you think about young pitchers and their growing pains. Less so with position players though. Also, that is assuming that Uggla is that good and everyone else was that good no one was imply pulling a Jody Gerut.
We’ll agree that they will be stomped and Joe Giardi’s loss cannot be underestimated. We do not know if he had any effect on the team or not. If he didn’t, well then good for the Marlins. If he did, not good for the Marlins. Young players need direction. Not saying the new skipper cannot do that, just point this out.
Palmeiro doesn't even speak English
Funny…funny stuff. I love it.
Some of the Marlins are sure to regress now that a more detailed book is out on them. I am looking at Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez, off the top of my head. Oh wait, Nolasco already sucked. Nevermind. Who's closing for the Marlins again?
Scott Olsen is definitely a stud and I think most of agree that Dontrelle might not be the ace that everyone thinks he is when you factor in his home park and his production against everyone not named the Mets. While I think they have a bright future, it’s hard to see so many young arms just being on point again. Just like everyone is skeptical of Maine repeating, I’m skeptical of a few of their guys repeating. Some will, but they need them all to as their offense is not exactly going to be stellar, though adequate. The Phillies and Mets have serious pop. Adequate offense, with a bad bullpen, and decent rotation won’t cut anything.
RE: Neyer…I like him. The Dice K article only had one real comparison. Irabu isn’t a good one, Ishii isn’t, Park (I know, not Japanese) isn’t. etc…One top flight pitcher who dominated came over at the age of 26. I get what both of you are saying.
Benny, I consider the Marlins more a nuisance than competition. This is a two team race despite what Braves fans would have you believe.
Freakin' Met fans just need something to be sad/mad about.
Maybe…but I think they care so much that every little move is looked at and magnified. We know he will not be on this Met team barring a lot of injuries.
3:08 PM
Benny, that's exactly my point. It's like the newer, better than "moneyball" theory and it's ultimately the crowning achievement in how Omar is running the team since he took over. I'm not one to get into economic theory, but I sense that Omar's come up with his own. There is a real head on his shoulders, and it is willing to make a new current instead of heading with the prevailing one. His whole approach to this season's free agent market seems prescient.
And the fact is that young pitching is quickly becoming the most valuable commodity in baseball, which is why we see more teams reluctant to part with it - and why most teams ask for it over, say, the can't miss power hitter. This is a game that, at least at this point, can always produce hitters, but pitching is what distinguishes teams in the end.
I think that too many players overachieved on last year's Fish and that a great part of the credit belonged to Giardi. There's no question that they have a very promising team, but you just cannot expect so many players to stay at that level for two years.
And Jake that sky is just amazing!
3:52 PM
...and jake, was that break dancing kid on the beach or was he missing some limbs. It was hard to tell what exactly was going on there.
4:01 PM
he was breakdancing or something. holding himself up in a wierd position. all sorts of odd shit happening over there. they have tents on the beach for people to bang hookers.
i understand and don't think all the fish will improve or even maintain. i was just saying the team as a whole should improve because they are theoretically progressing. but i wasn't thinking about giardia. losing him might hurt.
4:22 PM
they have tents on the beach for people to bang hookers.
With the massive HIV problems down there, that is concerning to say least regardless of whatever protection is being used.
I'm not saying none of their players will progress, but it really depends on if you think some of those guys were playing over their heads. It could be argued that Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla are due to take a step back and postion players are typically more predictable. If you take into the account the inevitable that the pitchers will not maintain with the exception of Scott Olsen, they will probably just be in the middle of the pack. Not to say that's dissapointing for such a young team and that '08 and '09 is not extremely bright, but young guys have been known to take steps back. Of course the best of the best are able to do it from the start, but this goes back to the my original thought. It really depends on who you think was playing over their head. A guy like Willingham is old enough that you can be reasonable sure that what you see is what you get. Young guys can be more volitale for a myriad of reasons.
4:39 PM
Fuckin' Braves man.
Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez.
I know they weakened themselves at 1st base but you know someone will step up.
They really made thier bullpen strong. Wickman who was solid in the NL, with Soriano and Mike Gonzalez setting up? holy moly.
5:09 PM
actually the senegal hiv rate is about the same as ours .08 percent, i think. the hos are tested monthly and licensed.
i hear you...but i do think hanley is a stud and will progress.
5:14 PM
not that i personally test hos
5:18 PM
Whoa...I guess Atlanta is done with their bullpen experimentation and looked at the Mets as the model of how to win games with non-stellar starters. Really, really, tight bullpen. 30+ homer production is nothing to sneeze at and it's a wonder why the Yankees were even rumored to be involved with this deal before. The Braves still might dish Mike Gonzalez off, but it will certainly be on their terms this time and for a better player. I wouldn't be surprised if he was dealt for a mashing outfieler like...oh....Willie Mo maybe?
Jake, good to hear they are taking some precausions.
Hanley is a stud prospect, but like Reyes' .300 BA in year #1 and lower production in #2 and #3 (granted injuries played a factor), it's not out of the realm of possibilities. Long term, he's not the concern anyway. Uglla keeping it is and some of the arms. Sanchez is not a sub 3.00 ERA guy that is a perinial 20 game winner. Etc...there is talent there and lots of it, but to have so many guys end up working out is just nuts. Besides, their offense needs more work and bullpen is bad. Even if they develop their own 'Big 3' with Dontrelle, Olsen, and Johnson right away...what good did it do Oak-town when they had more legit sluggers? I just think they are due for a bit of a downturn. They were really hot last year for a long time and were a cute story. Anywhere from 70 to 80 wins in '07 and they might give the appearance of being in it, but won't have staying power. See: Mets in '04
5:39 PM
not that i personally test hos
We don't judge here.
5:39 PM
Yeah Jake...you're sounding like you "researched" a bit too heavily on the hos!
5:48 PM
Jake would be remiss if he didn’t. It’s all part of the research.
In an unrelated piece of new, I have just bought a ticket to Africa myself.
5:50 PM
to what part of africa?
but then they would have swapped laroche for willy mo? that doesn't make sense does it?
fuck the braves.
6:47 PM
Helton in the HOF? Really? A 1b with 286 homers entering his Age34 season on the decline? This does not seem right to me.
7:36 PM
Tanzania. My friends and my brother are heading to Kilimanjaro and Tanzania on a two week adventure, but I can only make one week so I'll just be doing the safari portion. Exciting stuff.
Why would Boston want LaRoche? They want a closer and the Pirates wanted a left handed bat with pop. The Braves get an outfielder that can hit. Just my two cents.
I second your last though...fuck the Braves.
Lemmy, I'm with you man. He is fringy at best when you factor in where he plays half of his games. He is prolific at the plate and was productive on the road, but I do not envision him getting him and his decline is too steep.
8:09 PM
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