Friday's Discussion
Funny item of the day: Barry Zito meets with the Rangers! We know that Barry would never go there. He is flyball pitcher and flyball pitchers do not fare will in hitter's parks for obvious reasons. Barry would do badly in Chicago and badly in Texas. Kevin Millwood is a groundball pitcher and fit in well with the Rangers in being the type of pitcher they need. Barry? Not so much. They need a sinkerballer or a guy with nasty stuff that can overpower batters. Boras is just doing his usual song and dance but we know that Tom Hicks can get a bit nuts with his money, but Chan Ho Park is still fresh in his mind. By no means am I suggesting Barry would meet the same fate, but he certainly is not a great fit for them.
Anywho....the real item of the day. Manny, Manny, Manny. When we think of Manny Ramirez, we think of offense. When we think of offense, we do not think about the San Diego Padres. The Padres want Manny and the Red Sox like Heilman. The Mets have Milledge, Heilman, Maine, Oliver Perez, and Bannister they can certainly dangle as trade bait. Omar could certainly make something happen involving a package of those players in order to bring back Peavy. After all, if the Padres want Manny, they will have to pay. It looks like there is some interest there from a few teams. Would it be prudent to trade Heilman after the Mets bullpen will be overhauled and no one knows what they will get out of Dirty? If it brings back a bonafide ace, yes, yes, and yes.
The Mets bullpen will have Wagner, Dirty, Feliciano, maybe Williams in there, Mota fifty games in most likely, and Adkins with guys like Joe Smith, Phil Humber, Jason Vargas, and Standridge who could factor into the picture. Shit, if the Mets bring in Zito and trade for Peavy, they willl have enough arms to move Maine into the bullpen. Omar will bring in a ton of guys to fight for a spot as well and with Peterson's knack for turning bad relievers into good ones, it is a chance worth taking. The real question is could it actually be done? Could Peavy head to the Mets with Manny heading to the Padres with a package headed by Heilman and Milledge to the Red Sox? The Red Sox wanted that pair before for Manny and we all know they do like Heilman even more now. Maybe something else could go down involving other players, but it would be hard for me to believe that there would be no interest. All three teams have players that someone wants.
posted by michael o. at 12:16 AM
41 Comments:
Zito will go where the money is; Boras is his agent. If the Mets offer him 70 mil and the Rangers 80, he'll be getting bombed in Arlington for 5 years.
As for the Peavy possibility you're suggesting Mike....it's enticing. What's Peavy's contract status?
1:47 AM
I don't understand why would the bosox trade manny especially now, the way contracts are going he is underpaid and they will never get equal value.
1:59 AM
I don't get the Pads motivation for trading Peavy. Is he getting close to his FA years? Every team in baseball wants a pitcher like this guy, and they are few and far between.
Best bullpen in the universe? Let's analyze that shall we? Walker? - coming off of a career year. Baez? - has always been over-rated, a decent guy (with a falling K ratio) who should set up but gained a rep as a closer by default. Williamson - a bit far from his best days. Bradford - coming off his first good (and healthy) season in the last three years. Ray was fine in year one, but we all know that closing is no sure business. Actually relieving ain't either. This is an above average bunch; that's it.
Humber is not going to relieve, Mike. Joe Smith is many months away from the majors, if not a year. Vargas is not ticketed for relief either. Stranbridge could turn out to be something with The Jacket working on him, but there is no way in hell the Mets can afford to trade Aaron Heilman!
As for Zito, as I wrote yesterday, it's all going to be about money and Bada is right that Texas does not have a state income tax which thereby jacks up what the Mets are going to have to pay. Texas being involved is bad news, frankly. Hicks is not averse to paying a big contract. There's no guarantee here.
Glavine waiting until next week to tell the team what he is doing is not good news, and it will be interesting to see what the Mets do about arbitration. On same note, I don't see why the Mets don't offer arb to Hernandez and Mota since neither contract should be daunting. Hernandez supposedly has a hush hush deal with the Tribe, and whomever signs Mota gets a 50 game discount, so even if he got last year's salary, it would be prorated.
If we want to help the Pads, we should trade Bannister for Linebrink. That changes what the Mets can do regarding Heilman...
7:34 AM
Peavy's contract is lucious. Like three or four years of like $6 to $8 a year.
Zito will only go where the money if is if it's significant. $10 mill won't stop the Mets..if they make it $75 to their $80, he's not going to go to the Rangers. He ain't stupid and the Mets have the Peterson factor, the NL Factor, and the no DH factor. Nicey nice.
Steve, the Red Sox are sick of his shit. They are done with it and if they sign Lugo and Drew, they are a more well rounded team, though with less pop. Really not a bad move for them. They still have Willy Mo and they still have Coco...they can add Lugo to Youlkis, Pedoria, Tek, and Lowell, and that is nice, nice, nice team. They can afford to trade the headache.
DG, Baez is good. The Orioles bullpen is good in my opionion. I'm sorry, but they are very deep. Baez has been solid for a while now and that Baez/Ray/Bradford combo will be tight and Williamson and the other dude just add to it.
As for the Humber, Vargas, etc...They are wildcards...I wasn't suggesting they will step up, merely they could step up.
If we want to help the Pads, we should trade Bannister for Linebrink. That changes what the Mets can do regarding Heilman...
I'd do that ten times over, but I don't think they will.
As for the Pads trading Peavy, they can get a lot for him. They have a decent rotation without him and they need offense more than anything. Maybe they fear his arm being an issue. Maybe they want to free up cash to chase Zito and get Manny. The ESPN insider had it suggested he could be involved and it's not the first time we read that. I don't get it either, but it's worth a look.
8:59 AM
Oh, yes...offer Mota and Robo arb..it cannot hurt. I completely agree.
9:01 AM
All the Rangers are doing are raising up the price, stupid doucehbags.
Although, he has had success in Arlington.
I dont know how a 3 way involving Manny nets the Mets Peavy but whatever. Heilman is MUCH more easily replacable than an Ace. Trade his ass!
Hey man, the Orioles could be the Padres of 2005.
Soo umm, the Mets keep accomidating Tom Glavine. What do the Mets get out of it?
3:11 PM
Well, maybe not the best bullpen by large margin, but if Williamson can turn it around (2nd year off TJ), he could be solid. There are other good ones for sure. There are probably only four or five considered top tier...Mets, Angels, Cubs even, Orioles, but I like the Orioles pen. Chris Ray has a year of closer under his belt, I heart Chad Bradford, Baez is an established closer....good pen.
Drew can put up numbers anywhere and that is lefty's haven. He is not half of Manny, but Drew + Manny gets the team more atheltic and they are pretty well rounded. No one can REPLACE Manny, but it's the sum of all the parts and them actually WANTING to play and trying.
The Mets get Tommy's respect. Great!
3:30 PM
Zambrano is still in play. The Mets still have control over him and will probably invite him to spring training.
Soler in the bullpen is surely possible. He's got a decent fastball and a nice slider, but he's got the heart of the tin man. That scares me. Relievers need guts and I don't feel he has them from what he did last season on the mound.
3:37 PM
Fucking Monday Zambrano. I honostly think if the Mets non-tender him, they'll resign to a minor league deal or someshit. Omar doesn't care, that wasn't his player/problem. And he has never had a problem getting rid of the other GM's trash.
ALthough, like, deep down inside, i really wonder how Monday would perform if he was truely healthy.
3:37 PM
I'm not sure why the two are related. Pedro won't be back till midseason at best, and we have no idea what kind of pitcher he'll be. The Zito wars seem kind of quiet, given that he's supposed to be THE stud pitcher of this offseason. Not sure why, except that Zito's numbers seem to be, well, not so much the past few years.
Signing a 40-year-old pitcher, even a good, solid one like Glavine, doesn't mean you don't go after a 29-year-old proven major league starter like Zito, even if he ISN'T what he was in his first three years.
4:26 PM
The bright side is the Mets have 'hand' now. They certainly are not desperate for him. It can only mean good things and paints a better picture for '07.
To think Glavine, Pedro, Zito, Maine, and Duque/Perez will be rounding out the rotation in Sept is just silly.
4:27 PM
Welcome Jill...They will still be going after Zito. The Glavine money has nothing to do with the payroll I feel. It comes out of Wilpon's special stash. I want Zito in NYC bad and this just helps their negotiations.
Omar won't stop now as he is still having nightmares of what happened with the rotation the end of last year, though the rotation is not why the Mets got ousted.
4:32 PM
With Glavine back I actually expect a trade more than a Zito signing.
There's been talk about an A's and Mets deal. No names though. I love Dan Haren and I'd actually be willing to give up Milledge for him. He's not an ace but fuck it...
4:34 PM
Gotta give love to Jill, just read some of your blog, and the line of the day goes to you for this gem:
Besides, if Zito comes to the Mets and doesn't live up to the hype, we can still get our money's worth just looking at him.
- Accompanied by a picture.
Haha, too funny.
4:36 PM
If Boston moves Manny for Peavy, do you think they'll low ball Metsuzaka, knowing that he would drop to the Mets and not the Yanks?
Would anyone do Milledge and Heilman for Blanton or is that way too much?
4:47 PM
Besides, if Zito comes to the Mets and doesn't live up to the hype, we can still get our money's worth just looking at him.
I'll second that...Rarrrrr...
You expect it less? The Mets already lost their first rounder and gained a second rounder and a sandwich pick. Signing Zito only costs money. Why trade Milledge for anyone less than a top 10 ace?
Daisuke does not drop. If he does not sign, it's back to Japan with him.
As for that Blanton deal, that is way too much. Way...way...way too much. I wouldn't do Milledge for Blanton.
5:12 PM
Very glad to see Glavine coming back...thank god. Feeling much better about the staff now. Would've really sucked to have lost a guy who we won with 24 times last year. It really makes a big difference. Glavine, free agent/trade guy, Maine, El Duque, Perez/other option. Very solid. Then throw Pedro back in the mix midsummer. That is a solid lineup. Big day today nailing this down.
6:02 PM
One down ...Zito to go.
6:13 PM
I personally would love to see Peavy come to the Metrs but its along shot.. Manny is brilliant but hes old and gets paid 20m.. the Red Sox would have to pay alot of his salary to make it attractive to the Padres.. and someone else may have to be included.. If We have Pedro Peavy and Zito, what else is there to do? damn.. dont make us dream like that...
6:59 PM
Im not v happy to see Glavine back.. Hes old and you never know.. 12m is too much for him.. even in an inflated market like this.. you re better off with schmidt/
7:01 PM
Hey, even if a lot of those wins came against us, it will be well worth actually seeing a Met win his 300th game. That in itself is worth ten and a half million!
No way Zambrano gets tendered. Maybe, may-be, he gets a minor league deal, but it's best for everyone at this point if he goes and sucks it up elsewhere.
Soler doesn't even likely have a spot in the Nor/New Orleans (sigh, I keep starting to write Norfolk) rotation, so the middle innings make a lot of sense. He is definitely a cross between the cowardly lion and the tin man, but maybe he'll be a little more used to his new country next year.
Zito to go!
7:13 PM
But I thought Sugar Pants was your one and only... *snickers*
Hey man, David Wright may be studly but he can't sing songs to you on roof tops under the moonlight. Nor can he take pictures of natures beauty. Zito can do all that stuff.
So until Wright can sing me a tear-jerking song, I think I'd go with Zito. Plus the HAIR! THE F'N HAIR!
7:41 PM
I am psyched Tommy is back in the fold. That eliminates the possibility (albeit as slight as it was) that we start the season with no real experience to speak of. John Maine could have potentially been our opening day starter...
Zito - go get him, Omar. Enuff said.
Manny/Peavy - I am not adverse to bringing in Manny and signing him to two more years. He can flat out mash. Heilman, Milledge, Bannister and Shawn Green for Manny and we don't make them pick up any of the tab. We can then shift Alou to RF. That's a lot togive up, but I think that bat would be worth it for the next 4 years. What a sick line-up we would have...I doubt this would happen though. More realistically, I could envision a 3 way where Manny goes to SD, Peavy comes here, and Heilman, Milledge and a couple of prosects (maybe 1 from each team) goes to Boston.
Matsuzaka - not sure how true this is, but I found it real interesting
8:27 PM
Emad, as much as I like Mr. Wright, he is no man crush of mine. That shall remain a secret.
Steve, that is a great line.
Anthony, I think we are all happy.
Anon...for some reason it seems that Peavy's name has come up quite a few times. I find it bizarre, but it has.
DG...you are right. Minor league deal for Zambrano. I didn't mean he would get tendered. That would be silly being he'd get paid $2.5 to $3 million.
Soler has no spot in the AAA rotation...yes..that is why he goes into the pen from the start. Maybe I'll buy him a pair of brass balls for Christmas.
Zito's hair is nice. You have to give him that.
John, Manny makes any lineup look silly. The Mets could get him for sure, but doubt Omar goes down that road. As for that Daisuke tidbit, it is juicy indeed but sounds crazy. Really crazy.
9:50 PM
Given Omar's MO the past two off-seasons, i am starting to think that he is not going adter him.
Omar likes to make an agressive overture to free agents early. He wimes and dines them and flashes lots of cash at them early on, kind of knocks there socks off and makes a great fiest imoression on them putting any psossible other suitors on the defensive immediately.
* In '04 he had that Thankksgiving dinner with Pedro and shmoozed him making Boston luck like there offer was defensive.
* In '04 he went to Puerto Rico to woo Beltran spoke very publicly about his desire to acquire him.
* In '04 with Delgado he went to PR same meeting with Bernazard, backfired because they were too agressive. Again very public in their pursuit. Had his good friend Beltran make some calls too.
* In '05 he brought Billy Wagner to NY had him meet the mayor Glavine showed him aound Greenwich showing him some nice estates to raise his llamas. Spoke publicly about his desire.
This year we get these quotes from Omar.
"And with Tom back, I think we can do what we need to do by trading.
"If you're asking what we'd probably do in the Winter Meetings, I would say it's more likely that we'd trade for a pitcher than sign one. "
I know the key to most negotiations is not to show all of your cards, but Omar has chosen to overwhelm Free Agents early with bags full of Wilpon's money.
I get the feeling Zito is a fall back for Omar. Know contact yet with Zito, no trips to NY to the villiage no calls from Rick P. He likes trades, perhpas Peavy or Willis or Sheets.
Just a hunch, what do I know. I can't underestimate Omar.
Adam
12:29 AM
Since the A's offered Zito arbitration they get two picks from the team that signed him. Havent we already lost our top pick for Alou? If we sign Zito what would Oakland get?
9:38 AM
I think that Omar is now protected against having to offer the bank to Zito. If the bidding goes too high, Omar will likely back off. As he said yesterday, the Mets have a good enough team to start the year with the two 40 yr olds and some combination of the younger pitchers they have (Maine, Perez et al).
Scott, if we signed Zito, the Giants and A's would each receive our first or second round pick, the higher going to the team that has lost the higher ranked player between Alou & Zito.
Omar must have read my comment (yeah, right!) on offering arbitration to Mota and the pro-rated salary that will come from it. Even if Roberto Hernandez ducks out of the Indians' deal (or if the Indians do) and accepts arbitration, it would not be a bad move for the Mets. Of course, it would be even nicer if we gets the Indians picks, but Bradford's loss and Mota's suspension makes RH a viable middle reliever in 2007.
10:09 AM
Thanks DG. We will get a second and sandwich pick for Bradford and a 2nd rounder for RH correct? Are those safe in that they can't take them from us for signing FA's?
Damn, next year is going to be soooo much better not having to worry about giving up picks for FA's!!!
10:25 AM
Scrub that, RH is a type A free agent. That means if he goes to Cleveland then we would get a 2nd AND sandwich for him right? So we are looking at 2 sanwiches and two second rounders. Gimme a side of fries and a milkshake with that thanks.
10:27 AM
Off the wall- Glavine traded to Atlanta for Hudson. Straight up 2 player move. That would be real cool!
I think Hudson is only paid 8mil per so he would be a bargain. He is of course one of Ricks superkids.
11:26 AM
We'll only get a third round for Bradford as Danys Baez, also signed by the O's, was better rated and thus the Braves get the O's second rounder.
Further I don't know if Delucci, who signed with the Tribe was an A or a B free agent, but if he was an A and is rated better than RH, we'll have a third rounder there too.
In any case, the sandwich picks are the ticket!
12:00 PM
I see Rhernandez signed w/ Cleveland, another excellent move by Omar offering him arb, at least we get some draft choices.
By the way does anyone know where you can find the list of all the players who were offerded arb
12:47 PM
Zito is rep'd by borass and he is known to set the agenda, not going after hime like he did P&C is no big deal, both sides know in this situation that they both need each other.
12:51 PM
Borat certainly needs theMets to pump up Zito's price. It looks like the Mets are the only serious team pursuing him.
I'm kinda disappointed we don't get to see Mulder here now. Glavine winning his 300th in a Mets uni is some small consideration though.
Yeah nice one Farva. I wouldn't mind seeing Hudson here either.
1:07 PM
Farva, two problems with your deal. First is the no trade clause Tommy got. While I think he would waive it to go to ATL, I am not so sure Shuerholtz would would do it, as the Braves would lose the flexibility to trade away his contract at the deadline if they suck again. At least with Hudson, he has that otion come July. Be that as it may, I would do it in a heartbeat. I would also send a prospect along in return for Giles, who they are rumored to be looking to move. Second, no way ATL trades with us.
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