A blog dedicated to the New York Mets with some other baseball thrown in.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Jose Reyes Peaked at 23?

I'm know I'm late on John Sickles' Jose Reyes projection, but I never read it so it's new to me. It is crazy how in the '06 season Jose Reyes had surpassed David Wright in the minds of a lot of Met fans in terms of who is going to be the better overall player. While I do believe we all agree both will be tremendous players and perennial All-Stars, Reyes' ceiling all of a sudden seems limitless. There is talk in the papers about him not only surpassing Jeter in terms of his career, but possibly being better at this point in time. I'm not going to weigh in on that one, but it is nice that things like that can even be discussed.

Back to John Sickels' Crystal Ball. Jose Ryes had 99 runs in '05 and 122 in '06, but only manages to notch over 100 three more times with what should be a potent lineup behind him? He never steals sixty bases again, never hits seventeen triples again after doing it twice in a row and only hits double digits four more times, and only knocks 20+ homers twice. I do get the fact that he does this to only strike up some conversation and this has no significance on reality or is based on anything concrete, but Reyes' career seems a bit low to say the least. Anyway, if you have not checked it out, you should rummage through the comments. There are plenty of anti-Met people that chime in with ridiculous statements, but there is some interesting commentary in there in regards to the topic and it is good to read other points of views.

For me and my thoughts on the topic with no statistic relevance at all factoring in, I think he is going to be a five tool monster that can hit anywhere from first to third in the lineup and produce in any capacity he is asked too. He is going to steal more than 64 bases quite a few times, top twenty triples at least once, hit 20+ homers quite a few more times than two, top 100 runs perennially as does Jeter, and be a magician with the glove. Not that Sickels' career line for Jose is particularly bad, but Reyes is certainly looking like a rare talent that many teams have not come across and might not come across. This kid can be so good it is scary and he is just one of those guys who you need to watch daily to really understand what he is capable of.

Sickels also did David Wright a while back and was a bit more generous, but he has them both curiously retiring at 37 (Reyes) and 36 (Wright). These days, top tier players have the juice to play longer and these two certainly are athletic enough to make it past his predicted retirement ages. I do understand that you just cannot anoint anyone a future Hall of Famer until they show some longevity (see Mark Prior) and I think that plays a lot into his conservative estimates for Reyes and the semi-conservative estimate for Wright.

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23 Comments:

Anonymous benny blanco reigning champion said...

I think the point that John was trying to get at was that Reyes will have injury problems.
After 2006, he only has 4 seasons playing 150+ games. Whatever.

In other news I kicked ass last night during the draft. I will own you for the second straight season.

6:45 AM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

Bro, did you check out my team and really let it sit in? 20+ homers from every spot in the lineup a distinct possibility? Consistent steals? Devastating bullpen? Delicious rotation?

I will make up for last years subpar finish. I'm embarrassed that I was sniffing the bottom and will make up for it this year.

8:51 AM

 
Anonymous jake said...

benny. drink that cool-aid. after checking out my own stellar team i headed to see what the commish did. dude, i'm not trying to be mean, but i was shocked by how bad your team sucks. click on 2007 projections. you don't have one hitter projected to bat over .300, only Ortiz has pop, and your only steals guy is Willy Taveras? Taveras should not even be on a roster. But the really funny thing is your pitching. Better hope harden stays healthy cause not only do you not have good pitchers you don't even have enough pitchers. nathan and ryan are lights out but taking them that high before you had any starters is really going to hurt since they era and whip contributions are 1/3 of starters.

so then i went to check out mr. met's team...well, i do like beltran, berkman and adrian, but any team page where the first name you see is a.j. pierzynski is a joke. as for your pitching, cabrera and oswalt i like, but you've only got three starters in your lineup and one of them is glavine? and don't tell me those guys on your bench are going to help out.

to see how it's done head over to the moose knuckles team page. you guys are lucky i got stuck with half an autodraft last year. and benny, your championship last year meant nothing. nothing. since that stat setup made the whole league a crapshoot.

10:40 AM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

Jake, my misguided friend who actually wasted a draft pick that wasn't even your last pick on Josh Hamilton...don't hate on Robertson and Clay Hensley. They might not be sexy names, but they'll pound some quality starts down your throat and Tom Terrific is going to have his best year as a Met...mark that down. It would not surprise me to see myself atop the standings come the end of the year in quality starts with five guys with 20+.

AJ? AJ is a catcher who hits .290 with 15 dingers. I'll take that.

11:16 AM

 
Anonymous jake said...

hamilton is going to lead my team in dingers...

...and pedro is going to put me over the edge.

11:30 AM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

As I said last night, you should be getting Pedro back just as your 1300 innings expire when you factor in the ramp up period for him. I expect one (one and a half tops) Pedro like month from him since they will be taking it easy with him. It's all about prepping him for the Mets playoff run.

I'm not even going to comment on Hamilton. Willy Taveras will have more dingers than him.

11:48 AM

 
Anonymous sidd finch said...

I couldn't get into the draft. I think my team is going to suck again, except for Albert Pujols.

It was strange, because ESPN let me do a mock draft, and that worked fine. I sat at the page they said to go to, and nothing happened.

12:16 PM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

Sidd, that is certainly disappointing. I saw the autodraft going for you and it hurt in the inside.

Did you autodraft Pujols last year too?

I logged in a good hour early to ensure everything was in smooth working order. I had some minor issues, but was able to persevere and draft a championship team.

12:28 PM

 
Anonymous Darling Gargoyle said...

?????????? There's my quote on fantasy baseball. I will say that in my first actual moment of considering fantasy baseball I thought that the person I would most likely draft first was Jose Reyes. Then I determined to no longer think of the subject. Sorry guys!....

Coop, I wasn't sure what you found upsetting in what I posted the other day, but hope no offense was taken.

Steve Phillips can eat my gym shorts! What a putz!

12:41 PM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

I would have absolutely drafted Reyes first had I been given the chance, but alas, I wasn't. Instead I got 'stuck' with Beltran as my first pick. Not bad...not bad at all.

Coop isn't offended easily so I'm assuming she is not offended. Especially by a stand up guy like you. Your reputation precedes you DG....

1:13 PM

 
Anonymous benny said...

Aww Jake don't start with the shit talking. Criticizing my power production? You only have 2 guys with 30 HR potential. I have a 30 HR guy on my bench. And unlike you atleast I have ATLEAST 3 guys that should hit .300 or better. And I have OBP MACHINES out the ass.
You guys are lucky I didn't go Balls Deep and draft both Hafner and David Ortiz for godly power. I was really considering it.
I will give you props on the starting pitching. You took every single guy I was targeting. But that's ok, I won't depending on Joe Borowski and Bob Wickman for saves, like you will be.
But you can't get too much love, you have Nick Punto, Josh Hamilton, Mark DeRosa, and Phillip Hughes on your roster? you silly goose.
You silly kids will never understand what I try to do. So I guess Benny is going to have to endure the same disrespect as the Mets in 2007. The Mets LIKE Benny's team completely dominates in 2006, and then people question 2007?
tisk tisk...

And Sidd, there's already an offer on the table for you to check out ;-)

Jeromy Burnitz retired last night. He was cool. He was on the team during really shitty years but I actually liked him. He played hard, played decent defense, and I swear to this day that he hit a homerun just for me after I told he "was the man" and that I "believe in him", he looked at me when I said it, winked, and hit a freakin' dinger his next AB, I geeked out.

And again, honostly thanks everyone again for coming to the draft is was lots of fun and this season is going to be fun as hell again.

1:26 PM

 
Anonymous jake said...

yeah picking santanna first was cool until i had to take a ramirez 2nd. i'm glad i got delgado though he could come through huge. i had beltran on both squads last year, which was tight, but i can't make myself believe he's going to start running again.

my offense does suck i guess but my pitching is rediculous.

mike, anything pedro does will be gravy but he could bring it on thick. plus i think i finally found the max innings rule and doesn't it say 1500? that is a lot of innings and all you guys that skimped on the starting pitching are going to be struggling to make the max which means put me down for 14 points in k and qs.

benny you're right i don't get how you think bc the only guys on your offense i would not immediately cut are sizemore and ortiz. that said, you should have taken hafner instead of sizemore then taken juan pierre a few rounds later which would have prevented the laughable taveras pick.

2:02 PM

 
Anonymous benny said...

Tavares will be a million times more productive than that piece of shit Juan Pierre. I hate Juan Pierre.
At worst Tavares is the same thing as Pierre only 5 rounds later. So MUCH better value.
Tavares in Colorado in a sick offense is going to score a ton of runs. With big ass gaps in Coors, will be on base more and thus lead to more stolen bases but... 5 rounds later.

Plus to be honost, most of my players chip in in steals. I have 5 guys that will steal 20+ bases. Not to shabby.

April 1 can't come soon enough, time to kick ass.

2:45 PM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

Benny, Just one 30+ homer guy on the bench? I’m a bit disappointed in you. I have a few pitchers who can knock 30 homers.

Ortizzzle and Hafner? Aren’t they both DHs? Rough to carry two DHs all season even if they are the best. Your pick was better utilized in another fashion, which you did. Right move.

RE: Disrespect….I think you are the champ until someone unseats you. You took it pretty handily and did your due diligence this year so you would have to be the preseason favorite.

Jake, snagging Delgado was good, but your Manny pick was curious. There was a few people I like more than him at that stage.

Thick gravy? Sounds delicious. But like I said, it’ll be too late. Not just because of the innings, but because you’ll be sitting in 14th with Josh Hamilton’s two dingers.

If it’s 1500 innings, then I think we all kind of messed up in that regard. However, I couldn’t carry more pitchers without hurting my teams depth. I’m happy with my stance. Great offense, great bullpen, and a rotation that won’t knock you over, but will get the job done….just my the ’07 Mets.

Never bet against Sizemore though. NEVER. He’s going to be a monster of epic proportions this season.

I’m with you…Tavares is laughable all the time. Will he even be in the bigs by year end?

2:55 PM

 
Anonymous benny said...

I can't wait for when I'm soo ahead of everyone in SB's.
Then I get to trade to you Willy Tavares. It will be great.
Willy Tavares will be on one of your rosters before seasons end.

Yeah you know what, your right, Grady Sizemore is Carlos Beltran lite.

3:16 PM

 
Blogger Coop said...

DG, no worries and definitely no offense taken. Actually my comment on Friday or Sat or whenever wasn't directed at you per se, but whats-his-name saying Dirty should be traded. I said "fuck 'im" because I think the comment was "harsh" that people were calling for his head when he was late to two practices and needed a swift kick in the ass. Dirty will be fine, I'll be fine and you're fine. Love ya! :) ((((DG))))

3:28 PM

 
Anonymous sidd finch said...

Dirty had tears in his eyes when he talked to Willie. I think he will be OK, too.

I'll have to look at my team when I get home, my guess was that I don't have any pitching.

Lemme guess, benny, you want albert? :)

3:41 PM

 
Anonymous sidd finch said...

Dirty had tears in his eyes when he talked to Willie. I think he will be OK, too.

I'll have to look at my team when I get home, my guess was that I don't have any pitching.

Lemme guess, benny, you want albert? :)

3:41 PM

 
Anonymous DG said...

Mike, did you say stand up? Or fall over?

Nice thing about the Mets is they have four legitimate MVP candidates. That is enormous!

Nats announcers totally flubbed good content: about the Duaner situation, they totally missed the point, then on the rotation mentioned some prospect named "John Pelfrey."

That's the big advantage of MLV.TV - you get to hear how good the Met announcer are compared to most other teams.

3:45 PM

 
Anonymous DG said...

Still not on the Chan Ho bandwagon and Jon Adkins is no trip either. Frankly, I think the Mets would be better off with Ben Johnson than Jon Adkins.

I'd do a pen of six men to start the season: Wagner, Heilman, Showenwhat, Feliciano, Sosa. Joe Smith - though the Mets are more likely to take Burgos or Chan Ho over Joe to start the season. I'm still hoping that 'John' Pelfrey will make the rotation.

4:03 PM

 
Blogger Coop said...

I agree - just say NO to Chan Ho. Get me some Pelfrey.

5:48 PM

 
Blogger Coop said...

Hey, did you guys hear -- Larry Fine Jones sprained his ankle today and he's out for a couple weeks. Who drafted him last night? Didn't someone say he was gonna be injured? (maybe the guy who drafted him)

8:38 PM

 
Blogger mr. met said...

Um....my friend that was supposed to be drafting for got him autodrafted after Juan Pierre was autodrafted and Brandon Phillips was autodrafted too. I didn't like how it would autodraft if you were logged in just because you missed one pick.

Whatever, it didn't happen to me and that's something I can be happy about and it's one less team we have to compete with!

8:55 PM

 

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